Question About CAC

stmanstman Posts: 10,967 ✭✭✭

If most respect JA's opinion. Why does there still seem to be a stigma on stickered NGC coins? I know if I call CAC and ask for an offer...... I've not had to say what holder it was in. Just what it is and grade. So he is not paying less unless things have changed, so why does everybody want and always say it has to be PCGS and CAC to get the most money? I understand that's the market. Makes no cents to me. :) on the spelling.

I see big dealers and big collectors that think the world of "John" and that's fine but why not in an NGC holder?

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Comments

  • BAJJERFANBAJJERFAN Posts: 27,231 ✭✭✭✭

    If you have 2 1884-CC ms 66 Morgans both CAC and one is NGC, the other in a PCGS slab will he offer you the same price for both?

  • shorecollshorecoll Posts: 4,119 ✭✭✭

    I think it's that the general market sees a difference between NGC and PCGS, and may not even understand CAC. Dealers don't want to have to explain it, so they just favor PCGS/CAC. I certainly look at NGC/CAC differently than plain NGC. In some series I view NGC and PCGS equally, in others I don't.

    ANA-LM, NBS, EAC
  • stmanstman Posts: 10,967 ✭✭✭

    @BAJJERFAN said:
    If you have 2 1884-CC ms 66 Morgans both CAC and one is NGC, the other in a PCGS slab will he offer you the same price for both?

    He never asked me what slab it was in.

    Please... Save The Stories, Just Answer My Questions, And Tell Me How Much!!!!!
  • 1630Boston1630Boston Posts: 1,993 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I don't know the answer but will monitor the responses here for my own education :smile:

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  • desslokdesslok Posts: 240 ✭✭✭

    @stman said:

    @BAJJERFAN said:
    If you have 2 1884-CC ms 66 Morgans both CAC and one is NGC, the other in a PCGS slab will he offer you the same price for both?

    He never asked me what slab it was in.

    Did he ask for the cert number?

  • BAJJERFANBAJJERFAN Posts: 27,231 ✭✭✭✭

    @stman said:

    @BAJJERFAN said:
    If you have 2 1884-CC ms 66 Morgans both CAC and one is NGC, the other in a PCGS slab will he offer you the same price for both?

    He never asked me what slab it was in.

    The question was rhetorical.

  • bigjpstbigjpst Posts: 2,121 ✭✭✭
    edited February 11, 2017 12:02AM

    @BAJJERFAN said:
    If you have 2 1884-CC ms 66 Morgans both CAC and one is NGC, the other in a PCGS slab will he offer you the same price for both?

    Right now the CAC posted bid for 1884 CC in 66 only stipulates CAC. There is a higher bid for PC CAC posted by another dealer.

  • stmanstman Posts: 10,967 ✭✭✭

    @BAJJERFAN said:
    If you have 2 1884-CC ms 66 Morgans both CAC and one is NGC, the other in a PCGS slab will he offer you the same price for both?

    He never asked me what slab it was in.> @bigjpst said:

    @BAJJERFAN said:
    If you have 2 1884-CC ms 66 Morgans both CAC and one is NGC, the other in a PCGS slab will he offer you the same price for both?

    Right now the CAC posted bid for 1884 CC in 66 only stipulates CAC. There is a higher bid for PC CAC posted by another dealer.

    This is my point. CAC only cares it's their sticker, as it should be. I've emailed said what I had, no mention what company and a price was offered. And to be honest I did indeed want to see if they would ask me what flavor holder. They didn't.

    Please... Save The Stories, Just Answer My Questions, And Tell Me How Much!!!!!
  • OnlyGoldIsMoneyOnlyGoldIsMoney Posts: 2,823 ✭✭✭

    My $2.50 set is 99% PCGS/CAC save for one coin that is PCGS/non-stickered. A NGC/CAC coin is one I would hope to cross at PCGS and then submit to CAC before adding it to my collection. Unless its a tough issue I would rather find a stickered example already in a PCGS holder.

    Mark's Liberty Quarter Eagles - No End In Sight collection, Registry Set Liberty Head $2-1/2 Gold with major varieties

  • SeattleSlammerSeattleSlammer Posts: 8,163 ✭✭✭
    edited February 11, 2017 1:45AM

    Because while The Market wants a bean, the bean cannot replace the minor sin of 2nd best plastic.

  • cameonut2011cameonut2011 Posts: 1,309 ✭✭✭

    @BAJJERFAN said:
    If you have 2 1884-CC ms 66 Morgans both CAC and one is NGC, the other in a PCGS slab will he offer you the same price for both?

    Yes

  • spacehaydukespacehayduke Posts: 1,005 ✭✭✭✭

    @SeattleSlammer said:
    Because while The Market wants a bean, the bean cannot replace the minor sin of 2nd best plastic.

    Maybe that is because a big portion of the 'Market' does not know how to grade well?

    Best, SH


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  • derrybderryb Posts: 23,445 ✭✭✭✭
    edited February 11, 2017 3:04AM

    @stman said:
    . . . so why does everybody want and always say it has to be PCGS and CAC to get the most money?

    Leaving CAC out of the equation, a coin in a PCGS holder will usually bring more money than the same coin in an NGC holder at the same grade. Because there is a higher premium for PCGS slabs there is a higher premium for PCGS/CAC over NGC/CAC.

    It is possible that a buyer who is offering the same for both is actually setting his price based on the lower of the two (NGC) and just realizes more gain if it happens to be a PCGS slab.

    “Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it ...he who doesn't ... pays it.” - Albert Einstein

  • cameonut2011cameonut2011 Posts: 1,309 ✭✭✭
    edited February 11, 2017 3:02AM

    Where there is a huge disparity between NGC and PCGS coins, CAC tends to err on the side of caution and go towards the lower value in my experience and opinion. Of course, I tried it with a few esoteric cameo coins so your mileage may vary. Overall, I think CAC is fair.

  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 26,760 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 11, 2017 7:20AM

    @SeattleSlammer said:
    Because while The Market wants a bean, the bean cannot replace the minor sin of 2nd best plastic.

    That's pretty much it. From 1998-2008 NGC plastic on average has realized 5-15% less than PCGS for non-generic coinage. A sticker doesn't make things "equal." In fact, even with a sticker, your NGC coin may not fetch unstickered PCGS money. The bias runs very deep. And while you'd think a CAC sticker should be the great equalizer, it hasn't done that. If anything, it has made the gap even wider than in 2008. CAC showing up was a serious blow to NGC....and not much effect at all on PCGS. The "only" 5-15% NGC discount days are long gone. Stigma? Bias? Unfair? 2nd best plastic? Yes....and no signs of changing. CAC only brought into the open what The CU forum all knew was going on from 1998-2008. Don't blame the messenger. Now most of the coin market finally knows.

    You have to sort of snicker at the "buy the coin, not the holder" methodology. Because, at sale time, the holder does matter more than it should. While I don't agree with it you can't alter market realities and long term biases.

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  • AnalystAnalyst Posts: 1,383 ✭✭✭

    BAJJERFAN, as quoted by CameoNut: If you have 2 1884-CC ms 66 Morgans both CAC and one is NGC, the other in a PCGS slab will he offer you the same price for both?

    CameoNut: Yes

    This is so. I have discussed this matter with JA, many times. He will pay the same for NGC-CAC as for PCGS-CAC. If there are exceptions to the rule, I am not aware of them.

    How will Coin Collectors Interpret Certified Coin Grades in the

    "In order to understand the scarce coins that you own or see, you must learn about coins that you cannot afford." -Me
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 26,760 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 11, 2017 7:29AM

    I just don't see JA paying the same price for a stickered NGC or PCGS coin unless it's a generic coin or a widget. Consider say a pop 1 finest graded PCGS MS67 1862 half. They haven't made one yet. But, there is one at NGC with a CAC sticker. You can bet your bottom dollar if/when that coin gets a PCGS 67 grade, the coin will sell for an extra 10-30% because of the new holder. Even the pop reports and registry differences would support different prices.

    Now, if JA wants to pay the same money regardless of holder, that's his choice. Hopefully, he doesn't do that by underpaying for a PCGS example. And since no 2 non-generic coins are rarely ever close to being identical with all the inputs used in grading, how can you even prove they should have the same price? But, I can see JA stating he pays the same price. Though, somewhere, somehow, the real market differences have to be realigned...by smoebody.

    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • oih82w8oih82w8 Posts: 5,709 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I usually don't look for coins in holders from other than our host, but sometimes the coin is screaming to be set free from their "other" holder to be placed into my PCGS U.S. Type collection. A holder from ATS with a CAC sticker just means, to me, that it has great appeal or was not overgraded...for a change.

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  • shishshish Posts: 467 ✭✭✭

    I agree,

    "In some series I view NGC and PCGS equally, in others I don't."

    Sad but true, it doesn't seem logical to me.

    "A sticker doesn't make things "equal." In fact, even with a sticker, your NGC coin may not fetch unstickered PCGS money. The bias runs very deep. And while you'd think a CAC sticker should be the great equalizer, it hasn't done that."

    Liberty Seated and Trade Dollar Specialist
  • rickoricko Posts: 48,203 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @SeattleSlammer said:
    Because while The Market wants a bean, the bean cannot replace the minor sin of 2nd best plastic.

    I agree with this...although I find it unjustified (IMO).... It is so contrary to the principal CAC is founded upon.... the certification of the TPG grade.... Now, because so many collectors seem to be OCD afflicted, I understand why some want uniformity in holders... however, that does not account for price differential. Cheers, RickO

  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 26,760 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 11, 2017 4:26PM

    @ricko said:
    @SeattleSlammer said:
    Because while The Market wants a bean, the bean cannot replace the minor sin of 2nd best plastic.

    I agree with this...although I find it unjustified (IMO).... It is so contrary to the principal CAC is founded upon.... the certification of the TPG grade.... Now, because so many collectors seem to be OCD afflicted, I understand why some want uniformity in holders... however, that does not account for price differential. Cheers, RickO

    Think of it this way. Before CAC, low end NGC non-generic coins were bringing 10-15% less than PCGS if they were of similar or identical quality. The market accepted this as fact for over a decade. If you didn't want to accept it the hit, you could try a crackout or cross.

    So why should unstickered NGC vs. unstickered PCGS be the same price today? They aren't unless generic or very common coins. So why should stickered NGC vs. stickered PCGS be the same price? Because JA posts some buy/sell spreads on various issues? What, he's supposed to support the entire coin market by himself.....when 90-95% (or more) of dealers out there won't even support NGC coins at the same price as PCGS? With $275 MILL in CAC coins out there, he can't even truly support that market if even a fraction of those coins showed up on his door step for real offers. And the more coins that are stickered, the tougher it gets.

    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • rickoricko Posts: 48,203 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @roadrunner...You are 100% correct... I was not disputing reality, just pointing out the fundamental flaw in acceptance of CAC from TPG to TPG. The differential is reality... Cheers, RickO

  • bigjpstbigjpst Posts: 2,121 ✭✭✭

    @roadrunner said:
    I just don't see JA paying the same price for a stickered NGC or PCGS coin unless it's a generic coin or a widget. Consider say a pop 1 finest graded PCGS MS67 1862 half. They haven't made one yet. But, there is one at NGC with a CAC sticker. You can bet your bottom dollar if/when that coin gets a PCGS 67 grade, the coin will sell for an extra 10-30% because of the new holder. Even the pop reports and registry differences would support different prices.

    Now, if JA wants to pay the same money regardless of holder, that's his choice. Hopefully, he doesn't do that by underpaying for a PCGS example. And since no 2 non-generic coins are rarely ever close to being identical with all the inputs used in grading, how can you even prove they should have the same price? But, I can see JA stating he pays the same price. Though, somewhere, somehow, the real market differences have to be realigned...by smoebody.

    I don't know if JA pays the same for both holders in all series, but his posted bids for commonly traded coins(such as Morgan Dollars) and generics are for any CAC. These prices are reflected in the greysheet. CAC does not have posted bids for all U.S. coins posted on CDN. Most of the coins that don't trade as generics don't really have posted bids on CDN so they use other methods to determine the pricing. I have never tried to sell him any coins, so have not had any personal experience with his offers, but when he posts a bid on CDN any member dealer can execute the sale and he is bound by his bid prices.

  • stmanstman Posts: 10,967 ✭✭✭

    I was only speaking to what I have personally seen with my own eyes and deal. Not what if's, not doomsday scenarios.
    When I said in my experiences CAC doesn't offer toned coin premiums, or tougher variety bust half premiums. I was told same doomsday scenario why should they what if all the coins in these holders came at the same time. Not relevant IMO.

    So I give them credit that they have offered personally same price no matter which clothes it wears. That's no good either to some. What I'm getting is if I offer common, largely traded (dreck?) he will pay the same. Me thinks someone or some just want to protect their coins is all. All done now. :)

    When I posted what I did I knew if I was wrong the board would have kindly let me know that it can't happen. Doesn't seem to have happened, well, only the same one. Which I also fully expected. Stick up for CAC= no good, Go the other way, no good. B)

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  • AnalystAnalyst Posts: 1,383 ✭✭✭

    bigjpst : CAC does not have posted bids for all U.S. coins posted on CDN exchange, formerly CoinPlex.

    CAC has far more sight unseen bids posted then BigJpst is suggesting that CAC has posted. CAC bids are not just for generics. There are hundreds of millions of dollars worth of CAC bids posted, and CAC pays the same for PCGS and NGC certified coins. There are CAC bids for type coins and better dates posted.

    Roadrunner: So why should stickered NGC vs. stickered PCGS be the same price?

    I did not say that they are or that they "should" be. The reasons why they are the same to JA are obvious. He has found the certified grades to be "solid"; they meet CAC standards. So, he will pay the same for PCGS-CAC as he will for NGC-CAC.

    Roadrunner: Because JA posts some buy/sell spreads on various issues? What, he's supposed to support the entire coin market by himself.....

    He is not claiming to be supporting the entire coin market. This thread is about the amounts that CAC will pay for CAC stickered coins, not about the amounts that everyone else will pay. Besides, how would Roadrunner know what "90--95% or more of dealers out there" will pay?

    I have attended innumerable major auctions after viewing the coins to be offered, and continue to attend important events. I have written countless auction reviews that incorporate references to then prevailing market levels. I frequently talk to leading dealers including JA. Yes, I do not know the demands of "90-95% or more of dealers out there"! Does Roadrunner have that many reliable sources and has Roadrunner analyzed that much data?

    What are Auction Prices?

    "In order to understand the scarce coins that you own or see, you must learn about coins that you cannot afford." -Me
  • spacehaydukespacehayduke Posts: 1,005 ✭✭✭✭

    @roadrunner said:

    @SeattleSlammer said:
    Because while The Market wants a bean, the bean cannot replace the minor sin of 2nd best plastic.

    That's pretty much it. From 1998-2008 NGC plastic on average has realized 5-15% less than PCGS for non-generic coinage. A sticker doesn't make things "equal." In fact, even with a sticker, your NGC coin may not fetch unstickered PCGS money. The bias runs very deep. And while you'd think a CAC sticker should be the great equalizer, it hasn't done that. If anything, it has made the gap even wider than in 2008. CAC showing up was a serious blow to NGC....and not much effect at all on PCGS. The "only" 5-15% NGC discount days are long gone. Stigma? Bias? Unfair? 2nd best plastic? Yes....and no signs of changing. CAC only brought into the open what The CU forum all knew was going on from 1998-2008. Don't blame the messenger. Now most of the coin market finally knows.

    You have to sort of snicker at the "buy the coin, not the holder" methodology. Because, at sale time, the holder does matter more than it should. While I don't agree with it you can't alter market realities and long term biases.

    RR, you are making a fairly strong statement here that would cover the collective US coin market that NGC coins with stickers sell for less than PCGS coins with stickers. I would love to see hard statistics on that for all series, grades, etc. Sure with common coins, you might be right but again I would like to see convincing stats covering the whole market. For rare coins, say, those with less than 200 extant, I am not convinced this is so, unless someone has hard stats that show this. In some of the series I collect where there are a plethora of <200 extant coins, the plastic doesn't seem to matter as much as the quality of the coin at any grade, both NGC and PCGS examples, if nice, go for strong premiums over un-nice examples, CAC or no CAC. And the prices will vary with the quality and show a wide range for grades, etc, and independent of surrounding plastic. But I could be wrong, so can you show us the hard stats that back up your statement?

    In terms of snickering at 'buy the coin, not the holder', well that depends on what your collecting goal is. If it is only to sell at some point, then perhaps one should snicker at NGC holdered coins if they truly sell for less. But if your collecting goal is not about maxing out price when selling later, but instead finding the best example for ones collection, then I think the coin matters most, not the holder.....

    Best, SH


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  • Cougar1978Cougar1978 Posts: 2,336 ✭✭✭
    edited February 11, 2017 11:19PM

    I think I will move to mods, currency, and world coins.

    Investor in Modern and Vintage US Coins
  • BIGAL2749BIGAL2749 Posts: 514 ✭✭✭

    Realizing that the market prefers PCGS CAC could they be more stringent with NGC coins before getting a sticker?

    Again market grading?

  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 26,760 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Analyst said:

    I have attended innumerable major auctions after viewing the coins to be offered, and continue to attend important events. I have written countless auction reviews that incorporate references to then prevailing market levels. I frequently talk to leading dealers including JA. Yes, I do not know the demands of "90-95% or more of dealers out there"! Does Roadrunner have that many reliable sources and has Roadrunner analyzed that much data?

    What are Auction Prices?

    Writing and talking to dealers isn't nearly the same thing. I've been a dealer for a total of 11 years, 5 of those were full time. Doing the actual buying and selling transactions, and focusing on NGC coins is far different than research and talk. My reliable sources were the many dozens of dealers who I bought and sold with. Auction results could very well be different as collectors probably aren't so aware of the bias (until they go to sell) and the dealers that buy at auctions convince their customers they have to pay the same money as PCGS....after all you're buying the coin, not the holder.... ;) ;) I guess I should have qualified my statement to be 90-95% of dealers who are top graders/very knowledgeable. I don't recall seeing JA setup at any shows when I was dealing.

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  • TopographicOceansTopographicOceans Posts: 6,452 ✭✭✭✭

    What prices are being realized for the same coin/grade in a PCGS and NGC holder, without any CAC stickers?

  • bigjpstbigjpst Posts: 2,121 ✭✭✭

    @Analyst said:
    bigjpst : CAC does not have posted bids for all U.S. coins posted on CDN exchange, formerly CoinPlex.

    CAC has far more sight unseen bids posted then BigJpst is suggesting that CAC has posted. CAC bids are not just for generics. There are hundreds of millions of dollars worth of CAC bids posted, and CAC pays the same for PCGS and NGC certified coins. There are CAC bids for type coins and better dates posted.

    Sorry if you think you know what I was suggesting. CAC may have hundreds of millions of dollars in bids but many are in coins that are commonly traded (i.e. Morgan Dollars) and generics. His bids are for many different grades for the same date/mm. Yes there are better dates and non generic coins.
    I was suggesting before someone asked that there are no bids by anyone for many of the coins listed on CDN. So if you want JA posted bid for an 1870 quarter in AU50 you would have to call him not expect a posted bid.

  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 26,760 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 12, 2017 5:39AM

    @TopographicOceans said:
    What prices are being realized for the same coin/grade in a PCGS and NGC holder, without any CAC stickers?

    Not sure what you are asking that I haven't already mentioned earlier in the thread. The identical non-generic, choice/gem MS/PF coin moved from one holder to the other, will sell for 10-40% less in NGC plastic....15-20% is probably typical. That works fairly well for choice/gem 19th century silver type coins. In many cases, you'll have to drop down a grade to actually sell it (ie an unstickered NGC MS66 seated quarter brings approx PCGS 65+ money).

    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • cameonut2011cameonut2011 Posts: 1,309 ✭✭✭

    @roadrunner said:
    I just don't see JA paying the same price for a stickered NGC or PCGS coin unless it's a generic coin or a widget. Consider say a pop 1 finest graded PCGS MS67 1862 half. They haven't made one yet. But, there is one at NGC with a CAC sticker. You can bet your bottom dollar if/when that coin gets a PCGS 67 grade, the coin will sell for an extra 10-30% because of the new holder. Even the pop reports and registry differences would support different prices.

    Now, if JA wants to pay the same money regardless of holder, that's his choice. Hopefully, he doesn't do that by underpaying for a PCGS example. And since no 2 non-generic coins are rarely ever close to being identical with all the inputs used in grading, how can you even prove they should have the same price? But, I can see JA stating he pays the same price. Though, somewhere, somehow, the real market differences have to be realigned...by smoebody.

    I have outright asked CAC whether they would pay more for a PCGS CAC coin over a NGC CAC coin and I was told that the price would be the same.

  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 26,760 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 12, 2017 6:05AM

    @cameonut2011 said:

    I have outright asked CAC whether they would pay more for a PCGS CAC coin over a NGC CAC coin and I was told that the price would be the same.

    Analyst said the same thing. He "asked" JA. And he received the party line...."yes, we pay the same price." Even if CAC pays the same price, does he sell them for the same price? I wonder? The market has already voted that NGC coins bring less money, stickered or not, in the same moment in time. So if JA can get more money for the PCGS CAC coin, he is ultimately underpaying for it IF the price paid is the same as what the similar NGC CAC coin brought. I can only go by what dealer to dealer coin market transactions show me. None of us knows what JA sells them for and if he pays the same money to Paul (for a NGC 65 CAC) as he did to Peter (for a PCGS 65 CAC). Now if he buys both coins from Dealer Peter at the same price, then Peter knows it to be true. No one else knows.

    My point is that the market in general is willing to pay more for the PCGS CAC coin. If you don't believe me, go ask Legend whose inventory is 90%+ PCGS CAC coins. I know they pay more for PCGS CAC....and sell them for more. That's pretty much all they deal in via their website customers. If JA doesn't do this, that's his business.

    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • GazesGazes Posts: 541 ✭✭✭

    Here is what I have decided for my collection. Some years ago, I sold a large portion of my collection that included PCGS and NGC coins. It became very clear to me with regarding selling the coins the PCGS coins did much better. When I became active a few years ago I decided only to purchase PCGS coins. Maybe I'm missing out, but I feel much better doing it this way for me.

  • AnalystAnalyst Posts: 1,383 ✭✭✭

    Roadrunner: Writing and talking to dealers isn't nearly the same thing. I've been a dealer for a total of 11 years, 5 of those were full time. Doing the actual buying and selling transactions, and focusing on NGC coins is far different than research and talk.

    For starters, I do a considerable amount of consulting work regarding rarities. I am not just reporting and talking. I am involved in many ways.

    Roadrunner does not have a web site, and has not published views outside of message boards, as far as I know. If he set up, or was othewise active, at the recent FUN and ANA Conventions, I was unaware of his presence, though I would be delighted to meet him. I acknowledge that he knows a great deal about Liberty Seated coins, which are among my favorites.

    At major events, I am there viewing the coins 'in person.' In many cases, I viewed every pre-1880 silver or gold coin in Platinum Night or Rarities Night events. Has Roadrunner recently viewed FUN Platinum Night lots, Pogue Collection lots, or SBG Rarities Night lots? Has he been closely examining coins at major conventions? I do not know.

    Roadrunner: My reliable sources were the many dozens of dealers who I bought and sold with.

    So, now, an anonymous participant on message boards is declaring the existence of presumably well informed, anonymous sources. In my articles, I have quoted many leading dealers and many of the sharpest graders. It is indisputable that I have many such sources.

    Roadrunner: ... an unstickered NGC MS66 seated quarter brings approx PCGS 65+ money ...

    There are NGC MS-66 quarters that have crossed into PCGS holders as MS-66. One that "brings approximately 65+ money" might be a coin that most relevant experts really do grade as 65, rather than as 66. Such a price might relate to the coin, not the holder, in many (not all) pertinent instances.

    Roadrunner: The identical non-generic, choice/gem MS/PF coin moved from one holder to the other, will sell for 10-40% less in NGC plastic....15-20% is probably typical.

    Where is the data to support such sweeping generalizations? Wholesalers 'cross coins' into PCGS holders all the time and pay competitive prices for them. As Roadrunner implies, there are many NGC coins that have failed to cross and thus would not be included in the group covered by this rather far reaching statement regarding the value of PCGS holders.

    Even if Roadrunners' percentages are accurate, this would be a half-truth that is misleading; it does not make sense to draw conclusions about individuals from numerical averages. This kind of use of averages leads some people to buy CAC coins without ever looking closely at the coins. Because CAC coins do and should sell for more, ON AVERAGE, it does not follow that all CAC coins should or will sell for more.

    No grading service can bat 1.000. In the future, grading practices and certification realities will change. From posts in other threads, I get the impression that Roadrunner seems upset that Roadrunner focused on NGC holders from 1988 to 2002 and then accrued less revenue than he expected when he sold his coins later in the last decade, in the "world" after CAC was founded.

    Speculating in coin holders is like speculating in commodities markets; in some cases, smart and knowledgeable speculators will lose. The batting average analogy is extremely applicable to coin grading, and coin enthusiasts should focus on coins, not on holders, IMO. Also, there are many non-investing collectors or long-term investors. Roadrunner keeps focusing on speculating in holders.

    How will Coin Collectors Interpret Certified Coin Grades in the Future?

    "In order to understand the scarce coins that you own or see, you must learn about coins that you cannot afford." -Me
  • cameonut2011cameonut2011 Posts: 1,309 ✭✭✭
    edited February 13, 2017 9:34AM

    @roadrunner

    You are fixating on the retail/resale value. We are saying that CAC pays the same price for NGC and PCGS CACed coins; this does not mean that he is necessarily selling them for the same price. As a knowledgeable grader and undisputed expert, why would he want to pay a plastic premium when he can buy the same quality coin in NGC plastic (already approved by himself and the other graders) and then change the plastic for an even larger mark-up? Also, "overpaying" is relative, but even if true, "buy low, sell high" is a widely held philosophy among coin dealers. (To be fair I think CAC is actually incredibly fair in its offers).

  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 26,760 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 14, 2017 2:20PM

    @Analyst said:

    Website? Colonel Jessup doesn't have one either as far I know. He's been one of the best minds in the coin biz for 30-35 years. I and many others have picked his brain over the years. There's a large group of top notch dealers and collectors w/o a web site. Many of them are dealer's dealers and work the wholesale markets. That's what I always did selling 98% of my coins to other dealers. I had no reason to try and sell to collectors who wanted to kick tires, pay less money, or come back complaining when they couldn't flip it for more profit or that dealer "X" said they didn't like the coin.

    What does having a website have to do with being knowledgeable about insider grading/pricing? That's a place for retailers to sell for the most money to collectors. They should try selling only to other dealers to more adequately prove their skills. Bob Rose's quote from around 1979-1980 still rings true. "You want to know the best dealers/graders in the room? Have them trade back and forth between themselves and at the end of the show see who made the most money." If you can't compete against the best dealers....you just can't compete. But, that doesn't mean you can't sell retail or do research.

    As I said before, some people like QDB do the heavy research, others do the work of buying/selling/upgrading/cracking out/consigning purchases to auctions. I did major auctions and shows full time for a living from 1987-1989 when the coins were nearly all still raw...and part time from 2001-2008. As a collector I scoured the major auctions from 1974-1986, often utilizing Jay Miller and Larry Whitlow (1983-1986) to bid for me when I couldn't attend in person. And relying only on my grading skills to get coins slabbed during my full time years....not the other way around. Everything I bought, was resold to other dealers. Mistakes were eaten, not pawned off on helpless collectors. I don't recall seeing Analyst back then when I was knocking heads with Martin Paul, Eric Streiner, the Avena's, Sear, Nagle, Miller, Lipka, Kutcher, Garrett, Dannreuther, Hendleson, Lipton, Lustig, Yafee, Bellisario, Haber, Browne, Contursi, Goldman, Schmidt, Levine, and many more I just can't recall. If anything, high end retailers didn't play major roles at most of those pre-slab auctions because many of them weren't top level graders. They relied on the dealer's dealers to bring them their auction-level newps. And none of those names above had a website in 1990...lol.

    So if analyst is not aware of any players behind the scenes of the past 40 years, they apparently didn't exist or didn't measure up to his personal standards. Fwiw, I did write several articles in the LSCC's Gobrecht Journal in the 1980's based on my years or research. But, that's apparently before your time. QDB was aware of my articles as he quoted them numerous times in the 1997 Eliasberg catalog....even if incorrectly. I have never been one for self-promotion, preferring a lower profile for security.... especially when dragging around coins from show to show. I quit being a part time dealer by 2011 for the security reasons alone. I didn't need a coin show to sell coins to the same 3-6 dealers.

    No grading service can bat 1.000. In the future, grading practices and certification realities will change. From posts in other threads, I get the impression that Roadrunner seems upset that Roadrunner focused on NGC holders from 1988 to 2002 and then accrued less revenue than he expected when he sold his coins later in the last decade, in the "world" after CAC was founded.

    >
    A 100% misquote/misinterpretation - those don't occur often. Who ever said a TPG is supposed to grade 100%? Certainly not me. I've consistently stated that the best they could ever do in the current format is about 75%-85% consistency. That's far enough away from 100% to give resubmitters a field day. But, we haven't been getting that. I think the real number is more like 60-75% today from the TPG's with 65-70% being the norm. And fwiw, I didn't buy any coins from 1998-2001 as you suggest above. It wasn't until November 2001 Vermeulle (all raw) that I started buying important coins again....then again at Queller in 2002 (all raw). I don't recall seeing Analyst at those NYC sales. Maybe he was there, or maybe not. The NGC coins I bought from 1987-2002 did quite well for me...as long as they were sold by summer 2008. Good coins fetched good money regardless of holders. Isn't that the mantra of the Analyst "coin market"? It would appear that Analyst agrees with my thesis that coin market made a huge change in the "post CAC world"....and especially for NGC. It certainly wasn't fair, especially for stickered NGC coins. I wonder what his view would be if unstickered PCGS coins joined in that carnage and were also deemed to be worth 30-40% less than stickered coins? That actually would have been the more consistent outcome. The point just flew over his head though.

    The best performance I've ever had was on NGC coins (pre-2009). My best ever was in 2004 when my NGC MS67 1867-s quarter sold at auction to Gene Gardner That was bought raw out of Auction '86 for 34% under my max bid. Funny, that I couldn't get it to cross back then. Today? It's PCGS MS67 CAC. It's been graded 4X in its life (PCGS MS66, NGC MS66, NGC MS67, PCGS MS67 CAC). Note that I cracked it out in summer 1988 to get an NGC grade because their coins were bringing more money and I was thinking of selling it since it had appreciated 2.5X in only 2 years! NGC coins were hot then. Hotter than PCGS.

    I've consistently stated that NGC coins brought 5-15% less from 1998-2008....probably stated that 100 times or more on the Forum. Never once said a single thing about that applying to 1987-1997. In fact, NGC coins sold for more money than PCGS coins in 1987-mid -1988. I was there, I know. And I've stated that before on the forum many times. Analyst has a selective memory or he reads selectively. When I bought NGC coins at 5-15% discounts, or had raw coins slabbed into NGC coins, I fully expected a discount upon resale (1998-2008). What I didn't expect was that CAC'd NGC coins (2009 and onward) would be fetching 15-35% discounts in 2009-2011. Nope....never saw that one coming. Baby tossed out with the bath water. I counted on the fact that people who could grade coins would know a quality NGC coin from a lower end/over-graded one. I was wrong and have admitted that many times as well. The market thought of NGC coins VERY differently post CAC/post Jan FUN 2009 market crash....stickered or not. That may have been the last time the coin mattered more than the surrounding plastic.

    In closing, when was the last time (if ever) Analyst was buying major coins RAW at big auctions for his own account? Evaluating coins in holders is NOT the same thing. I've said that many, many times. It's a huge crutch that most dealers and collectors don't even realize, unless they have submitted a lot of raw coins along the "learning curve." I also realize the research exploits of QDB and Analyst blow away anything I ever did, even if I have spent many years analyzing "markets" since showing up here in Feb 2002. What I've posted here since 2002 is for collectors to avoid some the misconceptions or even traps I have run into. If they don't want listen, that's fine. If you feel I have an agenda against any particular TPG, CAC, etc....please call me out on that. Other dealers could post their experiences here as well. Yet almost none do for obvious reasons. And I suspect they would get the same "disbelief" reactions from those who have never played the game.

    And I'm comfortable with the fact that not everyone today got to experience the "raw only" auction era. It was the only game in town back then. And if they had those experiences, they'd see things quite a bit differently today. I'm a fairly little fish who only submitted $1.5-$2 MILL in raw coins to the TPG's over the years, mostly in choice/gem 19th century type, much of silver type...that doesn't include regrades/crosses. For all I know, that pales to what Analyst has submitted.

    How will Coin Collectors Interpret Certified Coin Grades in the Future?

    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 26,760 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 25, 2017 2:50AM

    @cameonut2011 said:
    @roadrunner

    You are fixating on the retail/resale value. We are saying that CAC pays the same price for NGC and PCGS CACed coins; this does not mean that he is necessarily selling them for the same price. As a knowledgeable grader and undisputed expert, why would he want to pay a plastic premium when he can buy the same quality coin in NGC plastic (already approved by himself and the other graders) and then change the plastic for an even larger mark-up? Also, "overpaying" is relative, but even if true, "buy low, sell high" is a widely held philosophy among coin dealers. (To be fair I think CAC is actually incredibly fair in its offers).

    As long as Analyst and others are asking me for written/photographic/affidavit proof of my 30 years of TPG experiences, why don't you supply us with a dealer CAC invoice showing them being paid the same prices for the same PCGS and NGC (non-generic) coins....preferably one worth over $1,000 and not an 1881-s MS66 Morgan. It could be as simple as a MS66 seated or barber quarter type coin....PCGS and NGC....same price. Until then, your claims are unsubstantiated.

    And anyone who can say with a straight face CAC pays the same amount....and then can go out and sell those 2 coins to their customers for different prices (ie more for the PCGS) is not being true themselves or their customers. That doesn't make one a bit of sense to me. What that amounts to is that they underpaid the owner of the PCGS coin, doesn't it? Now if that's a dealer, I could care less. They are pros and should know how to swim with the sharks. If it's a collector, then that's a big problem. It means that the sticker doesn't actually equalize the TPG's to a common quality as their charter seems to state state (ie it's really not the coin, the plastic matters too). That's been my point all along. Feel free to post proof to show otherwise.

    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • I'll buy NGC but only at a grade lower than on the holder; that is, if it's NGC 65, I will pay only 64 money. This is regardless whether its CAC or not. I've learned the hard way. If the market pays up for PCGS, then PCGS is what it will get. On foreign, NGC is not a problem.

    Anschrift Ungenugend
  • AnalystAnalyst Posts: 1,383 ✭✭✭

    Roadrunner: So if analyst is not aware of any players behind the scenes of the past 40 years, they apparently didn't exist or didn't measure up to his personal standards.

    This is not a fair statement. I never implied that Roadrunner was unqualified. If someone is making controversial and sweeping declarations about whole classes of certified coins, anonymously, on message boards, statements that relate to the values of coins owned by collectors, it is fair to ask about the anonymous speaker's qualifications and experience.

    Roadrunner: I didn't need a coin show to sell coins to the same 3-6 dealers.

    Trading with three to six dealers, some of whom may possibly be coin doctors, is an activity distinct from attaining an understanding of collecting trends and the preferences of collectors.

    I re-read some of Roadrunner's posts and pieced together other points he made in the past in an effort to better understand his experiences and approach, which strike me as being simplistic and sometimes misleading. In any event, let us please consider the following post by Roadrunner, in a different thread, on 02/05/17, which was edited by Roadrunner at "5:50 PM."

    https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/975714/cac-is-a-money-making-slot/p4

    Roadrunner: Hey, that was me from 1987-2008. I never heeded any of the warnings about non-PCGS coins. I sent 95% of all my raw coins to NGC for 20 years. The coins in my personal collection were largely NGC. I spent 1988-1989 basically trading coins full time, attending auctions, cracking coins out, and trying to compete against the best graders in the country. That was not easy. And I did it mainly on NGC coins. I knew who the top few dozen graders were, and so did everyone else.

    Roadrunner, continued: I enjoyed my coins. Most of them were quite nice for the grade. But boy, did I get killed when it came time to sell them at auction in the post-CAC world. Gem NGC bust/barber/seated coins with CAC stickers got roasted right along with the unstickered ones. It seemed like Bizzarro world. That was a huge change from 1998-2008. Now I finally realized what Larry Whitlow, Mike Printz, and Jim Swan were telling me way back in 2002. And it was the introduction of CAC in Nov 2008 along with the coin market crashing in late 2008/early 2009 that pushed ALL choice/gem, non-PCGS/non-generic coins into an oblivion of sorts. It hasn't changed back. While we did see the general effect coming back in 2006, I never once imagined that even the good coins would get thrown out with the marginal ones. That's just crazy. But, here we are living it.

    It seems that my tentative interpretation of Roadrunner's activities were plausible and reasonably accurate, even if not entirely so. I was asking questions and raising issues, not drawing conclusions about his entire career as a coin dealer.

    He stated, ".... that was me from 1987-2008. I never heeded any of the warnigs about non-PCGS coins." Therefore, it was fair of me to say above in this thread that 'Roadrunner seems upset that Roadrunner focused on NGC holders from 1988 to 2002.'

    Importantly, Roadrunner stated, "... did I get killed when it came time to sell them at auction in the post-CAC world. Gem NGC bust/barber/seated coins with CAC stickers got roasted right along with the unstickered ones. It seemed like Bizzarro world."

    By "post-CAC," Roadrunner must mean after CAC was founded, which was before October 2007.

    When wholesalers figure that there is a very high chance that a coin will cross or upgrade, they tend to bid competitively for it, as Roadrunner knows. Roadrunner's claim that his coins were "roasted," although they were accurately graded, many with stickers, is odd, and requires an additional explanation. Although it is not clear to me what Roadrunner was doing, other than trading with crackout artists and coin doctors, my interpretation that he was speculating in holders was fair, even if it is not entirely accurate.

    Also, from 1987 onward, crackout artists, including coin doctors, were seeking to get coins overgraded, mistakenly graded or 'maxed out' at PCGS or NGC. During the 1990s, I was glad that I was a reporter and researcher regarding such activities rather than a participant. In some ways, such games are very harmful to the coin community and may be unethical.

    Also, if Roadrunner was both a volume submitter (as he says he was), including many attempts at crossovers and upgrades, and a dealer who was holding coins for years with the objective of profiting, it is fair to suggest that he was speculating in holders. A large number of Roadrunner's posts relate to his interpretation of a market "bias" against NGC holders and he has forcefully declared that his own focus on NGC holders cost him a significant amount of money.

    How will Coin Collectors Interpret Certified Coin Grades in the Future?

    "In order to understand the scarce coins that you own or see, you must learn about coins that you cannot afford." -Me
  • shishshish Posts: 467 ✭✭✭
    edited February 14, 2017 3:10AM

    "It seems that my tentative interpretation of Roadrunner's activities were plausible and reasonably accurate, even if not entirely so. I was asking questions and raising issues, not drawing conclusions about his entire career as a coin dealer."

    "Although it is not clear to me what Roadrunner was doing, other than trading with crackout artists and coin doctors, my interpretation that he was speculating in holders was fair, even if it is not entirely accurate."

    Sure sounds like legal speak to me :(

    Liberty Seated and Trade Dollar Specialist
  • cameonut2011cameonut2011 Posts: 1,309 ✭✭✭
    edited February 14, 2017 3:20AM

    @roadrunner said:
    Analyst said the same thing. He "asked" JA. And he received the party line...."yes, we pay the same price."

    @roadrunner said:
    I remember one time on here when Legend "claimed" they never marked their coins up more than 25%. It was just a few days or weeks later when I sold them a 5 figure coin that was marked up 28% once it appeared on their website. Those darn "websites" again. Dealer statements can only get you so far.... ;)

    @roadrunner

    And you're being 2-faced if you can say with a straight face CAC pays the same amount....and then can go out and sell those 2 coins to their customers for different prices (ie more for the PCGS).

    How amusing... I wonder what CAC and Legend (both of which have principals that are well-respected posters here) think about you basically calling them out (expressly and/or impliedly) as liars or as being anything other than forthcoming and straightforward. I find it amusing that I am now "2-faced" because I tell you what CAC relayed to me and has now been confirmed by multiple posters. Believe whatever you want to believe. I don't care. For those that question it, CAC's contact information is below. Roadrunner, why don't you call John and leave a message for him to call you back?

    info@caccoin.com
    908-781-9101

    Edited: To be clear, I never said John sold the PCGS CAC coins for a different price than NGC CAC coins. I do not think John publishes his sell prices publicly. I said that John could sell them for different prices in which case your statements would be salient. As many dealers enjoying a fat markup will tell you (only when making a profit), the purchase price is irrelevant to the dealer's sales price.

  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 26,760 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 14, 2017 7:09PM

    @coincommando said:
    roadrunner and analyst: you two sure talk a big game. either of you active as dealers in today's market? will you be trading away with the big guns in long beach or at ana? do you buy and sell directly with cac? how can you talk so much and spew so much fake news all the time? need your names in print?

    Thanks Coincommando, ye of 9 posts..... ;) At least some of us can talk about what we've done. But, if you think today's "coin world" has different pitfalls and problems as the market from 1975-2010..... good luck with that. Same exact stuff, different packaging.

    Yourself and Cameonut are a hoot. CC now requires anyone ever in the market to remain viable HAS to remain a full time dealer/player and shoot it out with the big guns at every major show/auction. Too funny. I did that for 35 years...my time is now past....I retired from that (at least for now) back in 2011. I listed the "players" I routinely shot it out with many years ago. Many of them like me, are no longer active in those roles. Does that mean they still couldn't come back and be nearly as effective today? Has the art of valuing a coin really changed any in 30 years?

    I still call them as I see it, much of it from personal experiences. I don't make dime on anything I post here. I don't sell any coins on the BST ...at least not in the past 10 years....and only 1 coin was priced over $100. I've preached the same stuff consistently for over 26,000 posts....never wavering or changing the message. I've given my opinions hundreds of times by PM to those inquiring about buying ch/gem gold/seated/bust/barber coins via PM. No one has called me out on any of it, ever....well, not until this thread from "9 posters." When it's fact from personal experiences, I list precise numbers....like that 28% above. Sorry if your sensibilities have been offended.

    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • CatbertCatbert Posts: 1,669 ✭✭✭

    Keep at it roadrunner. I learn from your experiences and perspective. Thank you.

    "Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
  • shishshish Posts: 467 ✭✭✭

    RR your candor and honest opinions are both refreshing and sincerely appreciated. :)

    Liberty Seated and Trade Dollar Specialist
  • RYKRYK Posts: 35,251 ✭✭✭

    I never liked the aesthetics of the NGC holder (compared to the PCGS holder), and they never made OGHs ATS, either. ;)



    "An early-morning walk is a blessing for the whole day."--Henry David Thoreau
  • cameonut2011cameonut2011 Posts: 1,309 ✭✭✭

    @roadrunner said:

    @coincommando said:
    roadrunner and analyst: you two sure talk a big game. either of you active as dealers in today's market? will you be trading away with the big guns in long beach or at ana? do you buy and sell directly with cac? how can you talk so much and spew so much fake news all the time? need your names in print?

    Thanks Coincommando, ye of 9 posts..... ;) At least some of us can talk about what we've done. But, if you think today's "coin world" has different pitfalls and problems as the market from 1975-2010..... good luck with that. Same exact stuff, different packaging.

    Yourself and Cameonut are a hoot. CC now requires anyone ever in the market to remain viable HAS to remain a full time dealer/player and shoot it out with the big guns at every major show/auction. Too funny. I did that for 35 years...my time is now past....I retired from that (at least for now) back in 2011. I listed the "players" I routinely shot it out with many years ago. Many of them like me, are no longer active in those roles. Does that mean they still couldn't come back and be nearly as effective today? Has the art of valuing a coin really changed any in 30 years?

    I still call them as I see it, much of it from personal experiences. I don't make dime on anything I post here. I don't sell any coins on the BST ...at least not in the past 10 years....and only 1 coin was priced over $100. I've preached the same stuff consistently for over 26,000 posts....never wavering or changing the message. I've given my opinions hundreds of times by PM to those inquiring about buying ch/gem gold/seated/bust/barber coins via PM. No one has called me out on any of it, ever....well, not until this thread from "9 posters." When it's fact from personal experiences, I list precise numbers....like that 28% above. Sorry if your sensibilities have been offended.

    I'm not sure why this is so personal for you. You act as if I attacked you when you were the one that attacked me by calling me two-faced which doesn't make any sense, especially in this context. I merely stated a fact. Advertised and solicited CAC bids from CAC have been the same for stickered coins from both services. CAC says that its bids are the same. Why is there even an argument from you on this point? The data and arguments about disparities in retail pricing are superfluous and irrelevant to the discussion. Regardless of what CAC bids should be (whatever that may be based on your perspective), all that matters is what the bids actually are.

  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 26,760 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 15, 2017 3:33AM

    CC, it's not personal at all. It's a matter of logic, which you don't seem to understand. You seem fine with the idea that CAC can sell identically graded/quality PCGS/NGC coins for different amounts, yet will pay the same money for them. That's basically screwing any collectors of non-generic coins by settling for less than what they could have gotten for them in the market. Regardless of what JA is saying, I don't think he's paying the same price for an NGC MS65 CAC and PCGS MS65 capped bust halves. And any collector would be stupid for selling an essentially identical PCGS MS65 CAC CBH for the same price NGC fetches. If CAC really does this, it's a problem imo. And if you agree they do would this, it's being 2 - faced (ie saying one thing with a straight face, but ignoring the obvious reality that in our market place these 2 coins sell for different prices among most dealers, approx 10-20% less for the NGC coin.

    You have a MS65 CAC PCGS - it's worth approx $8000. The NGC coin is $7,000. You want the $8,000? Then go crack it out or get it crossed. In this discussion, I have more problem with the fact that CAC would pay less than what a PCGS coin is worth vs. a similar NGC example. In this example, what does CAC pay for these 2 coins, $8,000 or $7,000? Legend is probably the premier dealer supporting PCGS CAC coins. Heck, they don't even like to stock NGC coins on their website. Go try to find one. They certainly will not pay the same PCGS money for NGC CAC....unless maybe the coin is a very old holder with strong UPGRADE potential. Yes, they have cracked out coins there too and sometimes try multiple times on the same coin. I read that on their website. Are they at odds with JA's principles of one stickered price - for all holders?

    Maybe we're chasing unicorns here. As any NGC CBH that is easily up to PCGS quality, will not stay in that holder once in the hands of a knowledgeable, highly proficient grader/dealer. If no one ever offers JA a CAC'd MS65 NGC CBH, then I guess it is correct to say, he "would" pay the same price if one "ever" showed up.

    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • tradedollarnuttradedollarnut Posts: 17,098 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Roadrunner, I think you're off base here. JA flips everything for like 3%...he doesn't mark anything up because of higher demand - he's a market making middle man and that's it

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