What drives the price difference between PCGS and NGC coins?
slider23
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Recently NGC has announced that they will not longer allow PCGS coins in their registry sets in 2017. I have seen posts ATS that the reason that PCGS coins have a premium over NGC is the exclusive PCGS registry, and with the recent announcement the NGC coins will increase in value being that the NGC registry will also be exclusive. What is your opinion on why PCGS coins have a premium over NGC? Will the NGC registry change impact the value of NGC or PCGS coins?
I was collecting both NGC and PCGS coins in a NGC 7070 registry set that was about 45% complete. I am converting my 7070 registry set to PCGS as yesterday I sent 8 NGC coins to PCGS for crossover. If I wanted to finish my registry set, I had to make a choice, and I decided to finish the set with PCGS coins.
Comments
I sent 8 NGC coins to PCGS for crossover. If I wanted to finish my registry set, I had to make a choice, and I decided to finish the set with PCGS coins.****
Good luck in your crossover attempt....(that should answer your question
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PCGS had the upper hand for perceived value well before the registry sets came into being. If someone says otherwise then they weren't around or are whistling past the graveyard.
Of course, years ago NGC and PCGS were on par for values and liquidity essentially across the board and prior to that NGC was viewed slightly more positively than PCGS. In my opinion, in the early-to-mid 1990s NGC took a stance to aggressively reward originality in coins even if those coins were aesthetically challenged while PCGS took more of an approach to reward eye appeal and luster. At that point it seems the spread didn't close even though NGC backed off their strategy somewhat within a few years time. My experience and observation (and this is simply my experience and observation) is that PCGS is a tad bit more conservative for most grade ranges and most series when compared to NGC, but that both companies do a really good job of staying within the parameters of their proprietary grading systems and both proprietary grading systems overlap one another to a very large extent.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
Coins need to be examined on a case by case basis, hopefully objective. Whether PCGS, NGC, ANACS, ICG, CAC or raw they are unique. There are mistakes, undergrades and overgrades in and out of all the holders. I have had upgrades from each into the more marketable ones. And there is a lot of bias in the hobby when shown to any given dealer. It is an easy play to critique a coin by the plastic.
I agree fully with TomB's comments. The only time I can recall NGC having the upper hand was when they first came out in 1987 and into mid-1988. In fact I recall that leading into the 1988 summer ANA I had my two best (PCGS) coins reholdered into NGC coins because they would be worth more by the show and I was contemplating selling them (PCGS MS66 rattlers 1866-s and 1867-s quarters....both pop 1's and finest knowns). By 1989 I think PCGS was preferred and that gained momentum over time. I seem to recall about a 5% price spread in the later 1989/1990 period.
The propensity for NGC to grade somewhat deeper toned coins with clean surfaces higher than PCGS was seen in 1988. I made it a point to try and find every MS63-64 bust and seated coin I could with somewhat muted luster but deeper toned surfaces and still showing a full cartwheel. If those coins had clean surfaces they would often grade up a point higher than PCGS. Send those same coins back today and they might not grade any higher than in 1988, and could grade lower. I must have upgraded a dozen or more MS63/64 bust half dimes with muted surfaces by re-sending them to NGC. It got to the point that I was looking for those kinds of 19th century silver coins across all denominations and series. It wasn't a sure thing but the odds were in your favor.
What drives the price difference between PCGS and NGC? A difference in quality in the same grade. A more widely used and competitive registry for PCGS coins. A better public/dealer perception of PCGS coins. And improved liquidity for PCGS coins. The coins that carry the biggest price tags are PCGS CAC coins. From 1998-2008 NGC choice/gem type coins carried a 5-15% discount to PCGS, before CAC even appeared. That was the way the market worked. Those discounts started showing up in 1990-1998 but I can't accurately recall what they were. When CAC showed up the NGC discounts got even bigger. These days, I'd say the discount for choice/gem type coins is 10-30%. And there are always exceptions, especially for NGC coins nice enough to get into PCGS holders. NGC CAC still sells at a discount to PCGS CAC. The only exception are very generic coins where the differences don't matter much to sight-unseen buyers (ie common date MS62-65 Morgans, common pre-1933 generic gold MS62-MS64, etc.). The differences between services among generic coins seems closer than anywhere else...hence those tend to trade sight-unseen, especially if the pops are huge such as in MS64/65 common date Morgans.
These are just my own experiences. Some opinions and some facts. Yours could be totally different. The one thing I did differently over most other people is that I submitted almost exclusively to NGC from 1987-2009 (I went where I felt I would get the best grades and net the most money). And my own personal coin holdings were 70-85% NGC coins. I had $25,000 in grading fees at NGC from 1988-1990.
My experience in Barber Half's shows me NGC doesn't know how to grade Barber 1/2's! almost every AU I have cracked and sent to PCGS crossed a notch lower. On the other hand! Someone listed several midgrade Barber Half's on the bay a while back. All of them were a full grade off and graded as such at PCGS! IE F-12 became VF20,VF30 became XF40! Buy the coin not the Holder!
I recently crossed a number of MS Bust Halves from NGC to PCGS, each lost a point, which is what I had expected.
Ahh. But if you took a random group of unstickered MS63-65 PCGS bust halves and send them to NGC to cross at any grade, I suspect many would lose a point too. The crossing game is not the best area to prove grading differences between the TPG's. There's some politics involved here. The fact that both of them only cross approx 40% of the coins received suggests that. I would think that both want to only cross coins that are no brainer solid for the grade, if not leaning to the high end of the grade.
I know a dealer who sent a Feuchtwanger graded MS64 at NGC and an 11-D $10 Indian that NGC called AU58; they crossed the latter coin but not the first, said the grey shadowing on the coin was indicative of a slider. The dealer was hoping for an Unc. on the latter and thought the first could go gem, he disagreed with the judgment on the Feuchtwanger based on how wear would actually show on that coins. I told him no way would they cross higher on current slabs. If you look at current crosses they are running 50%.
There are many areas PCGS is tougher on like classic type and $3000 and above coins. Get a lot of advice before cracking IMO.
Assuming it's accurate, that 50% cross rate includes tons of generic and common coins where grade differences between TPG's are minimal and the prices between grades are fairly small (ie little risk to cross them). When I refer to crossing coins, I'm more interesting in say 19th century choice and gem type coins, coins typically going for $1,000 and up. Crossing MS64/65 Walkers and Morgans and Saints and other common coins probably skews the numbers. I know the gem 19th century silver type coin cross rates are nowhere near 50%....and never have been. I suspect for PCGS those cross rates would be down in the 25-35% range based on my experiences. Gem bust coins would probably come in the lowest at approx 15-25%.
The difference? Perception by collectors.
I think crossovers also have some inherent bias by the graders of both services, with each thinking their brand is better and therefore implementing a higher standard when grading the others product.
"If I wanted to finish my registry set, I had to make a choice, and I decided to finish the set with PCGS coins."
I am not aware that you had to "make a choice". Your PCGS coins were "grandfathered in" if I read the original announcement correctly.
My grading bill to PCGS this month should come in around $30,000,00. My grading bill to NGC this year has been $0 to date (same as the year before and the year before that). No complaints.
Wondercoin
PCGS grading is somewhat more conservative that NGC. That perception is enhanced by the fact that many properly graded NGC coins are crossed to PCGS. Many of the coins that are left in NGC holders are over graded, some of them way over graded, which gives the brand name a negative image in the opinion of many collectors and some dealers.
Very interesting; if you would care to share your privileged information here, Wondercoin, what observations do you have on the grading here vs. your "pre-grades". And I agree with others that their holders are better, more aesthetic and apropos for moderns especially.
I am not surprised, Wondercoin. PCGS has "owned" the modern coin market for many years. In view of the fact that modern coins are your bread and butter, why send modern coins to NGC?
You are correct about the existing PCGS coins being grandfathered into the set. The "choice" was what coins was I going to buy in the future. My set was 3/4 PCGS and 1/4 NGC, and I was not going to be pigeon holed into finishing the set with 100% NGC coins.
Logger7... Backing out the obvious... That ownership adds a half point to a point ... My pregrades match my real grades.
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Bill Jones... More "tears" than most will ever know!!
Wondercoin
Why? I send Moderns to NGC because PCGS does not attribute Proof-like coins. There are some very beautiful proof-like business strike coins minted each year and why PCGS does not recognize them is beyond me.
Excellent point Manorcourtman. I personally presented this a few years back and it was, unfortunately, not adopted. I, too, wish they would recognize the business strike PL's. That said, I love to keep my PL's in safeflips and every now and again remove them from the flips and admire the surfaces in my bare hands!
Wondercoin
I have sent a few NGC holdered coins for crossover to PCGS and usually they came back lower in grade. I would really have to like a non-PCGS holdered coin to send it in for crossover any more.
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As usual, you are correct Professor.
Wondercoin
IMO, in its early days NGC was more strict on gold than PCGS. I once cracked an NGC PR 64 2.5 Ind. then did the one day walk through service with PCGS and the coin came back PR65.
We can also add the 'perception' factor now.... new collectors and collectors just deciding to get coins slabbed (yes, many collectors have kept raw coins for years).... the chatter in shops, at shows and on forums 'tells' them that PCGS slabbed coins will have more value, so that becomes 'knowledge'..... Very hard to overcome such ingrained 'fact'....Would be nice to see a true, double blind, statistical study done between the services....However, that will not happen. Cheers, RickO
iPad fumble fingers.
The word is "years," of course.
Now it's a mess. I have tried really hard to put NGC coins in my Classic Head $2.50 and $5.00 gold sets, but only two that have worked were NGC graded many years ago, an 1834 plain 4 in MS-62 and an 1838-C $5.00 gold in AU-58. Cleaned, over graded, poor eye appeal ...
For whatever it's worth, back in 2010 I had a complete raw set of Barber Halves, most in XF/AU. Whie at FUN I started talking to Skip at the ICG table and had him look at my coins. He carefully looked at each one and told me about 40% wouldn't grade and why. I decided to get the rest graded by ICG; almost all of them straight graded. I sold off the problem coins and moved on to look for better quality. Eventually I had a complete Barber Half set in ICG holders.
At FUN in 2012 I brought a bunch of Barber Halves in VF/ XF holders that I had upgraded. I tried to trade the ICG labbed coins for raw and slabbed Barber Halves to upgrade my set. I was repetedly told by dealers the ICG slab carried a negative value; the coins wer worth more raw. I was shocked! I was told only NGC and PCGS slabs were worth anything.
I marched over to the NGC table with my spare Barbers in ICG slabs, joined NGC, and submitted the coins for crossover. I was pleasantly surprised when they all crossed, a couple in a lesser grade but more upgraded. About that time I noticed the NGC registry and decided to cross my ICG coins to NGC holders. It took about a year, and all but a few coins crossed into NGC holders. I decided to join PCGS as well and cracked the coins out of the ICG slabs (that didn't grade at NGC) and sent them to PCGS. They all straight graded!
By 2014 I had a nice set of mostly XF to AU Barber Halves, some in PCGS holders but most in NGC holders. By then I learned the serious collectors didn't respect coins in NGC holders, and higher end coins were worth a lot less in a NGC holder. I decided to cross my set over to PCGS.
The process tokk about a year. All the coins crossed (I selected "any" when crossing). A few downgraded one grade, but more upgraded. In fact 2 coins upgraded by two grades! Since then all my upgrades were submitted to PCGS only.
Since then I've purchased numerous coins in NGC holders and tried to cross them at PCGS. What I've noticed is that coins in older NGC holders almost always downgrade and nice coins in newer NGC holders generally cross at the same grade.
I've concluded the big four 3PG (PCGS, NGC, ICG, and ANACS) to a great job and all should be equally respected. They all grade a little differently and won't universally cross. The bottom line, however, is that serious collectors only want coins in PCGS holders. You can't push a rope up a hill.
What drives the price difference ? Ego and "Who is Who", vs. "whatcha got ? " ... followed by: " Let's get a sticker on 'er. ".
Any of the four certifications are preferable to raw and they all sell, though the CAC sticker, which you only get with two adds a significant premium in some cases. Cheaper coins may work in the other holders, but once you get above $500 or so PCGS and NGC are the choices and as you get over $2000-$3000 the bias moves toward PCGS, but of course it all depends on the coin. "Raw" is never as good as a slab where the coin is protected, I've seen too many good coins ruined by raw abuse. And there is no excuse for people to sell raw coins at huge numismatic premiums, it is not fair to the customer. Dealer to dealer that may be a different matter.
For Mint fresh proof coins it is easier to get a 70 at NGC.
They don't sell for as much as a PCGS 70, but they do sell for more than a PCGS 69.
NGC was ridiculously strict on gem type coins when they first opened up in 1987/early 1988. I recall sending in my superb gem proof 1904 Barber half with killer toning and getting a grade of NGC PF65 (value on paper was $3500). I was crushed. I had paid $5200 for it in 1983 from one of the best graders in the business. In fact, I was the under-bidder for the original 1904 proof set it came out of at a Stacks auction. I ended up buying just the half from the guy that beat me out on the set. I mentioned the very conservative grade to Ellesmere Numismatics at the time and they offered me $4K for it. Better than 65 money but not near 66. I sent it back in and it went NGC PF66 the next time (value on paper $5K+). Today, that coin is in a PF67 or PF68 holder, I'm not sure which.
During the 1987-1988 period it wasn't all that uncommon to send gem type coins back and forth between PCGS and NGC and one of them would grade it higher than the other. In 1988 I was miffed when my 2 best O mint seated quarters both came back MS64 from PCGS and NGC. I considered them gems. I originally sent the flashiest one to PCGS and the slighted muted luster but much cleaner coin to NGC. It didn't work that time. So I swapped services: NGC got the flashy coin and PCGS the slightly muted luster one. Then they both went MS65. Crazy! (fwiw, both of those are in PCGS MS65 holders today). Also in 1988 I had my choice unc 1840 wd 25c graded....NGC MS63. Same grade Larry Whitlow bought it for me raw out of a Stacks sale in the mid-1980's. I never considered it any nicer. A month after I sold it to a dealer for around $3500, I saw it in their case as an upgraded NGC MS64....at over 2X the price. Dohh! That really stung. One of my early lessons on just how much variability was in top tier grading. I own the coin for 4-5 years and make 10-15%/$500. The dealer/up-grader has it for 1-2 months and makes $4,000. Sweet.
Back to the original post, and whether "Registry Exclusivity" is going to now bolster NGC prices....
From my own POV, I just don't see that happening.
For me, I honestly don't have a conscious preference between NGC and PCGS. (This is made easier since I tend to collect in the circulated, and common lower end MS realm, where the differences tend to be pretty minimal, and maybe not even identifiable).
My participation in the PCGS message boards, however, kind of drove me to signing up for PCGS submission privileges, vice NGC. I saw no reason to pay for BOTH. So, I guess I do have a slight lean toward PCGS in those respects.....collectors club, and message boards.
Now, I have in the past plugged my coins into BOTH the NGC and PCGS registries, (as allowed), just to track my sets, and for the fun of seeing where my modest sets fit into the larger picture. Since NGC allowed both, I had leaned toward the NGC registry, because it allowed me to show/track ALL of my coins in one place.
Now, I essentially have to choose between them(?) Chances are, I'll lean toward PCGS, if all other factors are equal. So, in the future will I really be 50/50 split on BUYING NGC vs. PCGS? Probably not. Suddenly, PCGS has an edge in my view.
So, in my small and barely significant corner of Numismatics, NGC is actually taking a hit on desirability. That's not going to put them out of business, by any stretch. But add a lot of little hits like that, and its possible it will have an overall negative affect on NGC values(?)
(Oh my god...I'm becoming a PCGS fan-boy.)
Good reads on this thread.