November 2016 Baltimore Show Report

TomB

Consistent with previous threads I have started on the new forum software, I believe the format of the thread reads better on my website, but I have attempted to retain all the written information in this thread so that those who would rather read it here may do so. However, not all the images that are present in my website version are embedded in the PCGS thread. Thank you.

What is an image of a fountain pen doing on the top of this page? Well, Friday, November 4 was International Fountain Pen Day; yes, it really exists. As a daily user of fountain pens I was compelled to bring a few with me to the Baltimore show and I spoke with several dealers whom I know who are also passionate about fountain pens. I find them to be superb writing instruments. If you have a chance to use one or to test one out I would suggest doing so as they relieve the stress and strain that many people experience in their wrists and/or palms when writing with ballpoint pens. They also come in an astonishingly large variety of colors and designs so just about everyone can find one that looks pretty cool.

As for the show, I thought it was middling, which meant that it was better than I had anticipated. That might seem like a very pessimistic outlook, but most of us who have been in the hobby-industry for years recognize that the market has not done very well for quite a while. This has led to a dealer shakeout that is ongoing and has resulted in fewer dealers attending these larger shows. The current trend has been ongoing for at least two years and, while the larger shows still have lots of dealers and a great variety of coins, they are not at this time what they were in the past. However, I am not advocating that one misses these shows if it is possible to attend. Rather, I would urge folks to go out and attend shows in person since they are a great venue for seeing a variety of coins in-hand, meeting others with the same interests and simply learning about the hobby.

My show experience always begins at least a day prior to the opening of the actual bourse floor and consists of meetings with clients and other dealers as well as attending what might be termed mini-shows that are hosted by groups of dealers. Once the bourse opens I get to work attempting to see as much as I can and to search out those cool coins that my clients will enjoy. I also discuss the market and market experiences with other dealers and attempt to distill this information into show reviews to help those who cannot attend. Below are points to keep in mind from this last show-

1) The Baltimore show is held at a great venue, always feels very secure and if you stay at the Hilton you don't even have to walk outside in the event of inclement weather as the hotel and convention center are connected to one another via a broad, bright and elevated crosswalk that goes over the street. This is something to keep in mind as an option, especially if one is carrying materials they want to keep dry and for the November shows since the weather can be wet and chilly. However, this show saw unseasonably warm temperatures that did not require protection from the elements.

2) There seemed to be both a higher attendance and more buzz on the floor Thursday than I anticipated, but a lower attendance and less buzz Friday. I did not stay for Saturday.

3) The price of bullion seems to have a large impact on collector optimism, possibly because those who have bullion socked away might feel more flush with funds when the metals are higher, but the relatively recent flatness in gold left that segment of the market more quiet. This, in turn, may lead to less cash being pumped onto the floor.

4) More than one seasoned collector and dealer of Seated Liberty material thought that today's prices for ultra-gem coins might prove to be a good long-term investment. However, the length of time that these folks were talking about was on the order of five-to-ten years and the coins they were talking about were generally pieces that most folks would not want to incorporate into their collections given the weight of the financial investment required.

5) Circulated Seated Liberty half dollars and dollars appeared to have a fluid market, whereas that market for Seated Liberty half-dimes and dimes seemed quite slow. This slowness, in general, extends to gem Seated Liberty half-dimes and dimes, as well and has been the case for perhaps two years.

6) The market in gem Barber business strike and proof coins is, for lack of a better term, hibernating. The coins can be gorgeous, but prices have been coming down for 18-months or more and they have not found the floor where collectors are willing to buy them again. It's baffling for me to see because I have been active in this niche for many, many years and wonderful coins were always a bit tough to find and now really great coins can languish. I was not the only one with this observation at the show.

7) I sold a number of coins to other dealers that had been on my site for a little while and then the first few coins I acquired at the show were also sold at the show. This does not always happen, but the remainder of my purchases were not offered at the show in order that they could be offered first to my advance notice email clients and then be placed onto my site. This amount of activity and movement of funds was greatly appreciated.

8) I got yelled at by a dealer who thought I was attempting to conduct a deal at his table. Nothing of the sort was the case, but I apologized to him anyway in order to defuse the situation and then came back the next morning to address the issue more completely and we had an enjoyable conversation about the market, science, veterinary medicine and the types of coins we were each offered lately at these shows. I was glad I went back to him to clear the air and he seemed to genuinely appreciate the effort.

9) The PCGS table was busy at the opening of the bourse, but I can't say that it appeared to stay busy much after that. This is in stark contrast to some shows where the lines of folks waiting to submit coins seem amazingly long. I imagine that the PCGS Invitation shows have eaten into the volume of coins that are submitted by many dealers, but what I witnessed was more quiet than just a lack of major dealer participation.

10) Lots of candy at dealer tables! After all, this was the week after Halloween.

11) The Baltimore Convention Center looks to have seriously addressed the quality of their concession offerings at the show and the food looked more appetizing. Please note that the Baltimore show had some of the better food options in the past, but they looked even better at this show.

12) My impression, and this was backed up by some comments, is that many dealers are markedly lowering their buy prices to the public because many areas are still dropping in price or are stagnant. As one dealer put it; figure out at what level you will lose money and then offer 25% less. Ouch! This is not the case for every dealer and this is not the case for every niche of the market, but things aren't as fluid as they were a few years ago.

13) The Greysheet seemed to be making a comeback in terms of usage. I think this has much to do with the recent change in ownership and a renewed interest in more accurate price models.

14) I was able to see and inspect some of the most amazing US mint errors as well as wonderful ancient coins that you will ever see, but these coins are not imaged online and would be largely unknown to me had I not attended the show. This is a major benefit of attending.

15) The Barber Coin Collectors' Society awarded me a wonderful plaque for winning the David Lawrence Literary Award. The plaque is really quite attractive and was given for an article I wrote for their journal last year about 1897-S Barber quarters.

16) The increased transparency of transaction records and ubiquitous nature of auction records, population reports and images seems to have had a most likely unintended consequence for dealers. More than one dealer mentioned to me that folks will look up the lowest, most recent auction record for a particular coin and point to that record as the market level for the piece, even if the coin they are pointing to was a woeful example and the coin that they are attempting to acquire is wonderful. I have experienced the same thing in potential transactions and it can be frustrating, but I always attempt to use it as a point of education and discussion.

17) There used to be 1839-O Reeded Edge half dollars at shows, but in the last two or three months these appear to have almost completely dried up. Please keep in mind that the vast majority of those coins that had been offered were not very nice, in my opinion, but they were still there. Perhaps people have realized how downright tough these coins are with any meat at all and they have purchased the available supply. Perhaps it is something else. Regardless, what used to be available was mostly invisible at this show.

18) Similarly, colorful Roosevelt dimes seemed to have disappeared, as well, or at least their numbers shrunk considerably.

Justacommeman

Tremendous report Tom!!

Congrats on point 15!!!

15) The Barber Coin Collectors' Society awarded me a wonderful plaque for winning the David Lawrence Literary Award. The plaque is really quite attractive and was given for an article I wrote for their journal last year about 1897-S Barber quarters.

mark

Type2

Very nice report Tom cool coins, Maybe I'll be able to buy back some of the coins I sold some time ago for less will see I guess.

lkenefic

... ...

Weird... my phone glitched. I was going to say... excellent summary. I wasn't there Thursday, but there seemed to be a bit of buying on Friday.

Desert Moon

Great and informative report!

Best, SH

Jackthecat1

Thank you for the highly informative show report.

TheDukeK

Great report. Thanks for the info and glad it went well for you.

Zoins

Great report Tom. Love the observation on various types. The photo of the watch and pen is beautiful!

ShadyDave

Great report and insight! Congrats on your award too...

logger7

As usual top notch photography Dr. Bush!

BustCuds

Thank you for a super report and your insight on the market.
Congratulations on your award.

mkman123

appreciate the report!

TopographicOceans

MICHAELDIXON

Good report.....BUT, I want the watch!

Yorkshireman

Very interesting article.
Wish I could have been at the show.

DDR

Great write up. I agree with point #11. I've been going to Baltimore for many years and the food is usually terrible, but this time it was not too bad. Still overpriced, but at least it tasted better.

dpoole

Characteristically articulate and immensely insightful, Tom!

One gets the sense that activity is flat and is holding its breath in many areas (not just coins), perhaps awaiting the outcome of next Tuesday....

claychaser

Very nice report!

Mitchell

Thanks for the nice report.

TomB

@MICHAELDIXON said:
Good report.....BUT, I want the watch!

HA! A watch person! It's a first generation Omega Seamaster Aqua Terra with blue sunburst dial. Thank you all for the comments regarding the thread.

stman

Not looking to be argumentative, but......
"The increased transparency of transaction records and ubiquitous nature of auction records, population reports and images seems to have had a most likely unintended consequence for dealers. More than one dealer mentioned to me that folks will look up the lowest, most recent auction record for a particular coin and point to that record as the market level for the piece, even if the coin they are pointing to was a woeful example and the coin that they are attempting to acquire is wonderful."

Happens quite often on the collectors end when selling to a dealer. Bottom line, some people will work it either way to their benefit.

bolivarshagnasty

Thanks for the report Tom. This and other show reports confirm my suspicion that the coin market is laboring. Who will call the bottom and when?

sparky64

That is one comprehensive report .
Appreciate your insight and feel for how things currently stand.
I also like the eye candy sprinkled throughout.

Congratulations on your award.

JKT

Outstanding report, Tom. Thank you very much for taking the time to post it!

Congratulations on the award as well.

coinlieutenant

Tom,

Thank you for a great report. Sounds like it was a good show over all. Your report was very comprehensive. Oh how I wish that your 1837 in XF was an 1838 instead. I would have been very happy to pay the skin and variety premium. It is perfect and will find a good home soon I am sure.

V.r
John

BillJones

I hope that the big shows never go away. I spotted a quarter eagle for my set on the Internet, but the photos made it look dull. It looked much better "in the flesh," and I bought it.

TomB

I agree with you, stman!

Lakesammman

Nice report - thanks for posting it.

Those pens look good but don't work well for lefties, who just smear the ink before it dries.

Rodebaugh

Excellent report sir; Thank you for posting.

roadrunner

Thanks for the typically solid insights we are used to hearing from your reports. 3-5% of the market has been doing great. It's the other 95% that has been struggling.

etexmike

Great show report. Thanks for taking the time and effort to post.

Mike

kaz

Thanks for posting your report, fascinating reading as always. I wish I could have attended the show but had to go to an all day medical CME session this weekend. Sigh.

SullivanNumismatics

Enjoyed the report, thanks.

logger7

"...many dealers are markedly lowering their buy prices to the public because many areas are still dropping in price or are stagnant. As one dealer put it; figure out at what level you will lose money and then offer 25% less. Ouch! This is not the case for every dealer and this is not the case for every niche of the market, but things aren't as fluid as they were a few years ago."

It demonstrates a lot of faith to set up at the shows with the expense and no guarantees in this market, and I know a number of smaller dealers who keep doing it with all the time, expense and risk involved and I don't know what I would be offering for raw and certified coins at a show table. However some dealers use it as a buying opportunity at the one day less expensive shows. I know a dealer who just stays in his town and buys and sells out of a small shop, picking up better date Morgans sending them in on bulk deals and paying $25 or so for coins that end up being worth $150 in some cases. Bulk grading ends up costing $5-$20 a coin--a real winner businesswise.

123cents

Great informative report.

2ltdjorn

Nice Fountain Pen and Watch.

I am looking to get my first nice pen this christians. Mont Blanc FP.

RichieURich

Nice report, Tom, and it was great seeing you at the show!

ranshdow

Great report Tom, thanks.

BryceM

Fountain pens are great, but haven't used one in several years. Perhaps I'll need to break them out again.....

Great report. The issue with gem Barber material is interesting n'est-ce pas? I have one on my radar I'd be willing to pay up to acquire, but they just aren't out there right now.

Confidence in the market doesn't seem to have found a solid foundation yet. Perhaps the political shakeup will help. Perhaps not.

The way everyone talks, I probably need to hit a Baltimore show someday...... That and the Winter FUN are tough for us West Coast types though.

ricko

Great report Tom.... I have no idea how I missed it when initially posted...I truly appreciate your attention to detail. Also, I am a fan of the Omega Seamaster... I have one myself.. albeit a later model, and I have had it for about forty years...Cheers, RickO

brg5658

Tom, fantastic report, as always.

Who knew, another fountain pen addict! I have around 140 in my collection, and I agree with you -- fountain pens are far nicer to write with than ballpoints or even roller balls!

Walkerfan

Great Report. I enjoyed it. Thanks!

TomB

I'm glad this one was brought back from the abyss and doubly glad to see we have some Omega and fountain pen fans, as well.

thisnamztaken

@TheDukeK said:
Great report. Thanks for the info and glad it went well for you.

VERY interesting report! Thanks.

DUKE: Ok, you got me! I tried to brush that insect/avatar off of my monitor but no go of course.

bidask

Any commentary on the world coins you may have seen ?

Great report thanks Tom.

Ablinky

Great report, I've begun to dabble in fountain pens also. I actually set up at a pen show a few weeks ago with a friend. We didn't bring many pens to sell, but we did have 6 Speedmasters ranging from caliber 321 pre-moons to the well-known caliber 861s in the case though.

TomB

The Baltimore show has a heavy dose of raw ancient coinage, modern Asian bullion coins and foreign proof or mint sets. The most often heard language between dealer and public that I heard spoken, aside from English, was Russian. Many of the certified foreign coins I have seen over and over again, similar to US coins, from show-to-show. There were more deals involving foreign currency than foreign coinage, from my observations only. The availability of foreign mint and proof sets is fairly high, but of those sets that I looked at in-hand (Canadian, British and South African) nearly all of them had one or more badly spotted coins or a piece that was otherwise impaired. The asking prices on these sets, however, appear quite strong. I have no idea if they reflect the market accurately or are simply wishful thinking.

Gazes

A+ report ! I really enjoyed your insight

ElmerFusterpuck

Nice report! Kind of easing back into the coin stuff after spending a week and a half cruising around various Caribbean islands. I did put a watch on some nice circulated bust and seated halves while I was out, and found out the prices realized were pretty strong.

JoeC23

Great report TomB! I'm a long time lurker on these boards and love the show reports since they give excellent insights on current market conditions. Interesting observations on Seated Liberty coinage.

Dave99B

Fantastic, well-balanced report, Tom, as usual. Thanks for doing this.

Love your images as well.....the 1837 Bustie is an absolute knockout! WOW.

Dave