If the Fed does raise interest rates, what will be the impact on PM's?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
If the Feds raise interest rates that tells me that they are anticipating inflation in the future. Wouldn't that be good for PM's?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>If the Feds raise interest rates that tells me that they are anticipating inflation in the future. Wouldn't that be good for PM's? >>
Well, all the predictions of inevitable soaring inflation that was supposed to happen because of all the QE pumping/creating of worthless fiat never materialized like many here were anticipating so why should this prediction be any better? Oh, I know...this time it is different.
No use wasting time or getting excited. Nobody knows and it will be what it will be.
Successful trades/buys/sells with gdavis70, adriana, wondercoin, Weiss, nibanny, IrishMike, commoncents05, pf70collector, kyleknap, barefootjuan, coindeuce, WhiteTornado, Nefprollc, ajw, JamesM, PCcoins, slinc, coindudeonebay,beernuts, and many more
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
If interest rates go up, the cost of servicing the huge national debt (almost 19T as in 19 with a dozen zeros) goes up. Where is that money going to come from? Will the government raise taxes during an election year? Will they cut Medicare or Social Security spending? Will they cut military spending? Or, will they just borrow more money? This cycle of borrowing to service massive debt which raises that debt has to be inflationary. You may not see it this year but eventually you will see it. As always, JMHO.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
The national debt will never be repaid....not part of the plan, ever. Just keep piling it on/up, paying interest, moving on and conducting business as usual.
Successful trades/buys/sells with gdavis70, adriana, wondercoin, Weiss, nibanny, IrishMike, commoncents05, pf70collector, kyleknap, barefootjuan, coindeuce, WhiteTornado, Nefprollc, ajw, JamesM, PCcoins, slinc, coindudeonebay,beernuts, and many more
<< <i>The national debt will never be repaid....not part of the plan, ever. Just keep piling it on/up, paying interest, moving on and conducting business as usual. >>
No bubble can keep inflating forever. Eventually it will pop.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>Who really thinks that raising interest rates will have no effect? >>
mariner67
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>Who really thinks that raising interest rates will have no effect? >>
mariner67 >>
Perry, with all do respect....I never said that. Please reread my post of yesterday at 8:58PM. Most previous predictions here, especially with regard to inflation have been dead wrong. What I said was " Nobody knows".
Successful trades/buys/sells with gdavis70, adriana, wondercoin, Weiss, nibanny, IrishMike, commoncents05, pf70collector, kyleknap, barefootjuan, coindeuce, WhiteTornado, Nefprollc, ajw, JamesM, PCcoins, slinc, coindudeonebay,beernuts, and many more
<< <i>Who really thinks that raising interest rates will have no effect? >>
mariner67 >>
Perry, with all do respect....I never said that. Please reread my post of yesterday at 8:58PM. Most previous predictions here, especially with regard to inflation have been dead wrong. What I said was " Nobody knows". >>
Read your post at 9:10 today, especially the "conducting business as usual" part. With the national debt ballooning I don't see how this will be possible.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
I dunno man, I'm starting to think these guys may be right, they raise interest rates, the whole house of cards comes crashing down around us, and everybody loses everything.
Except for PMs, they will go up.
Time to sell everything and go all in on precious metals.
<< <i>I dunno man, I'm starting to think these guys may be right, they raise interest rates, the whole house of cards comes crashing down around us, and everybody loses everything.
Except for PMs, they will go up.
Time to sell everything and go all in on precious metals. >>
Did you know that facetious is the only practical word in the English language where all the vowels are used in alphabetical order
Personally I'm still hoping for a one and done .50 pt hike.
mark
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>I dunno man, I'm starting to think these guys may be right, they raise interest rates, the whole house of cards comes crashing down around us, and everybody loses everything.
Except for PMs, they will go up.
Time to sell everything and go all in on precious metals. >>
Did you know that facetious is the only practical word in the English language where all the vowels are used in alphabetical order
Personally I'm still hoping for a one and done .50 pt hike.
mark >>
People need to take off their rose colored glasses. A half percent interest rate hike will add an almost additional $95,000,000,000 ($19T X 0.5%) annually to the federal budget to service the national debt. Where do we get this money? Just print more money?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>I dunno man, I'm starting to think these guys may be right, they raise interest rates, the whole house of cards comes crashing down around us, and everybody loses everything.
Except for PMs, they will go up.
Time to sell everything and go all in on precious metals. >>
Did you know that facetious is the only practical word in the English language where all the vowels are used in alphabetical order
Personally I'm still hoping for a one and done .50 pt hike.
mark >>
People need to take off their rose colored glasses. A half percent interest rate hike will add an almost additional $95,000,000,000 ($19T X 0.5%) annually to the federal budget to service the national debt. Where do we get this money? Just print more money? >>
In theory it could add that much but all $19T doesn't come due next year. A lot of it doesn't come due until 2045 and the average maturity is probably 10 years out. But yes, in the long run rates will never be able return to the post war average of 4%+. Even 2% doesn't seem possible.
<< <i>I dunno man, I'm starting to think these guys may be right, they raise interest rates, the whole house of cards comes crashing down around us, and everybody loses everything.
Except for PMs, they will go up.
Time to sell everything and go all in on precious metals. >>
Did you know that facetious is the only practical word in the English language where all the vowels are used in alphabetical order
Personally I'm still hoping for a one and done .50 pt hike.
mark >>
People need to take off their rose colored glasses. A half percent interest rate hike will add an almost additional $95,000,000,000 ($19T X 0.5%) annually to the federal budget to service the national debt. Where do we get this money? Just print more money? >>
Actually it will not increase existing debt payments by a single cent. No rose colored glasses needed.
<< <i>I dunno man, I'm starting to think these guys may be right, they raise interest rates, the whole house of cards comes crashing down around us, and everybody loses everything.
Except for PMs, they will go up.
Time to sell everything and go all in on precious metals. >>
Did you know that facetious is the only practical word in the English language where all the vowels are used in alphabetical order
Personally I'm still hoping for a one and done .50 pt hike.
mark >>
People need to take off their rose colored glasses. A half percent interest rate hike will add an almost additional $95,000,000,000 ($19T X 0.5%) annually to the federal budget to service the national debt. Where do we get this money? Just print more money? >>
This just isn't true
m
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
So higher interest rates don't increase the cost of servicing the national debt? How is this possible? Could you guys explain this to me? I would think those that hold our debt are expecting to be paid interest at the prevailing rates otherwise they would take their money and put it where the interest rates are higher.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>So higher interest rates don't increase the cost of servicing the national debt? How is this possible? Could you guys explain this to me? I would think those that hold our debt are expecting to be paid interest at the prevailing rates otherwise they would take their money and put it where the interest rates are higher. >>
If rates change the price that existing bonds trade at will fluctuate but the interest rate they were issued at will not . It will make a difference to those that hold the bonds but not to the issuer.
Its not true that raising interest rates won't effect debt though. Derivatives are where the damage will be done there. How much of that will net out is anyone's guess . I think some state and local governments will get burned on some foolish deals that they entered into with big banks , that would probably take more than just 1/4% hike to bite anyone .
<< <i>So higher interest rates don't increase the cost of servicing the national debt? How is this possible? Could you guys explain this to me? I would think those that hold our debt are expecting to be paid interest at the prevailing rates otherwise they would take their money and put it where the interest rates are higher. >>
It does, however, only for the slice that is up for refinancing immediately. A lot of of the debt is in 10+ year treasuries.
Think of it this way, if a person has a mortgage, a hike in interest rates doesn't affect that existing mortgage, only new applicants seeking a new mortgage. The other factors are that the Fed hike is for short term rates. This may or may not push up 5 year, 10 year and longer rates. Eventually, yes, higher rates will likely have a meaningful effect on the debt, but not as your calculation indicated.
Yet another factor is if there is inflation, there is more tax revenue from higher wages and prices. So while the debt service payment goes up so in theory will the revenue base on the GDP. Think about people that got mortgages in the 1960s on $30,000 houses. Those 1960 era mortgage payments seemed like next to nothing in the 1980s and 1990s as the mortgages were winding down because wages, and prices in general were much higher.
those that hold our debt are expecting to be paid interest at the prevailing rates otherwise they would take their money and put it where the interest rates are higher.
<< <i>those that hold our debt are expecting to be paid interest at the prevailing rates otherwise they would take their money and put it where the interest rates are higher.
So where would they go? >>
Stocks, bonds, art/antiques, real estate, PM's, etc. Low interest government bonds can't be the only game in town.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>those that hold our debt are expecting to be paid interest at the prevailing rates otherwise they would take their money and put it where the interest rates are higher.
So where would they go? >>
Stocks, bonds, art/antiques, real estate, PM's, etc. Low interest government bonds can't be the only game in town. >>
You are mixing issues. Those that hold our debt are also already in the stock and bond market. They could always re allocate I suppose. U.S Treasuries just happen to be the safest part of their portfolio. Raising rates should make our debt even more desirable as perverse as it might sound. It is what it is. The markets need clarity regardless.
Art/antiques and Real Estate aren't fungible nor liquid and are different asset classes.
mark
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>Well... since they have printed bonds to bail everything else out....
.... won't they just print more bonds to pay the interest on existing bonds??
Perhaps the game of musical chairs will continue for a while longer. >>
Well they were issuing AND buying their own bonds for years. Progress I guess
mark
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
This can continue until the percentage of GDP consumed by debt payments becomes unmanageable, or until a major default raises the spectre of a haircut. At that point, there could very well be an exodus and a reversion to the mean, as they say.
The US Treasury market is the elephant in the room. It reminds me of Milo Minderbinder's Syndicate in Joseph Heller's "Catch 22", where everybody owns a share. It doesn't have to make sense as long as everyone thinks they could be worse off otherwise, and as long as they can get goodies on the side through their "connections" when nobody else can get them.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
If the Fed raised short term rates enough, the yield curve could invert, actually reducing net interest expense. , not sure that would happen, none of us know. The fed may control very short term rates, the THEY control longterm rates. Catch is no one really knows who the they are...even the they.
<< <i>those that hold our debt are expecting to be paid interest at the prevailing rates otherwise they would take their money and put it where the interest rates are higher.
So where would they go? >>
Stocks, bonds, art/antiques, real estate, PM's, etc. Low interest government bonds can't be the only game in town. >>
Today from Carl Icahn
Danger ahead - that's the warning from Carl Icahn in a video coming tomorrow.
The activist says low rates caused bubbles in art, real estate and high-yield bonds – with potentially dramatic consequences.
"It's like giving somebody medicine and this medicine is being given and given and given and we don't know what's going to happen - you don't know how bad it's going to be. We do know when we did it a few years ago it caused a catastrophe, it caused '08. Where do you draw the line?"
In a telephone interview, Icahn said he's "more hedged now than I've been in years."
"The Fed may have backed itself into a corner. They should have absolutely raised rates six months ago," adding it's difficult now because of global concerns.
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
unless a very negative press release escapes the FED vault, a small rate increase is a lock for December. The FED wants a small increase, if for no other reason, to convince the world it is still in the driver's seat. The Nov. jobs report was a hatchet job to provide justification to increase the rate.
Look for any increase to be short lived.
A responsible FED would increase their rate to 6+% without any need to publicly justify it.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
FED is gambling. Plan appears to be to slowly crank up the heat with interest rates until signs of a meltdown and then back off. Too late, recession in the works before even the first baby step hike. Expect more QE/easing in 2016. Until all FED fueled bubbles are allowed to self-destruct the economy can never return to normal. The one bubble that everyone should fear lies in our currency. For this reason dollar insurance becomes more important the ever. This one is too important to try to correctly time.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
Anyone wonder if Obama will have a bail out of states before he leaves office? Basically state and big city pensions.
Realizing the current administration has only 13 months remaining, it would seem Illinois is the only state that could go down in that time-frame. Cities? Most can survive 2016 as well. Public sector pensions are a problematic issue to be sure.
I think it will be instructive to see what the Republican Congress does with respect to the next budget. Can they actually do a "normal" one, not an omnibus give everyone a bone bill. Of course it will be in the middle of a presidential election, so many will have to bloviate for political reasons (both sides). Until we get spending under control, things will remain as is, IMHO
Retired United States Mint guy, now working on an Everyman Type Set.
Originally posted by: DeepCoin I think it will be instructive to see what the Republican Congress does with respect to the next budget. Can they actually do a "normal" one, not an omnibus give everyone a bone bill. Of course it will be in the middle of a presidential election, so many will have to bloviate for political reasons (both sides). Until we get spending under control, things will remain as is, IMHO
federal budget is meaningless when there are no restraints on creating the money to pay for them. This is why there is no longer a gold standard and a strong reason for why there should be one.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
Comments
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/gold/liberty-head-2-1-gold-major-sets/liberty-head-2-1-gold-basic-set-circulation-strikes-1840-1907-cac/alltimeset/268163
Got quoins?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>If the Fed does raise interest rates, what will be the impact on PM's? >>
Exactly.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>If the Feds raise interest rates that tells me that they are anticipating inflation in the future. Wouldn't that be good for PM's? >>
Well, all the predictions of inevitable soaring inflation that was supposed to happen because of all the QE pumping/creating of worthless fiat never materialized like many here were anticipating so why should this prediction be any better?
Oh, I know...this time it is different.
No use wasting time or getting excited.
Nobody knows and it will be what it will be.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Just keep piling it on/up, paying interest, moving on and conducting business as usual.
<< <i>The national debt will never be repaid....not part of the plan, ever.
Just keep piling it on/up, paying interest, moving on and conducting business as usual. >>
No bubble can keep inflating forever. Eventually it will pop.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
The banks' balance sheets were repaired with free imaginary money.
The Treasury issued more bonds to pay for it.
The Fed bought up all the bad paper that was extant from the housing bubble.
The Treasury issued more bonds to pay for it.
The Fed brought interest rates down to "stimulate" the economy.
The Treasury issued more bonds to pay for it.
The Debt Load is much, much higher than in 2008 and interest rates are much, much lower than in 2008.
Who really thinks that raising interest rates will have no effect?
If this is true, by Golly - we really must be living in a New Age.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Who really thinks that raising interest rates will have no effect?
mariner67
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>
<< <i>Who really thinks that raising interest rates will have no effect?
mariner67 >>
Perry, with all do respect....I never said that.
Please reread my post of yesterday at 8:58PM.
Most previous predictions here, especially with regard to inflation have been dead wrong.
What I said was " Nobody knows".
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Who really thinks that raising interest rates will have no effect?
mariner67 >>
Perry, with all do respect....I never said that.
Please reread my post of yesterday at 8:58PM.
Most previous predictions here, especially with regard to inflation have been dead wrong.
What I said was " Nobody knows".
Read your post at 9:10 today, especially the "conducting business as usual" part. With the national debt ballooning I don't see how this will be possible.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Except for PMs, they will go up.
Time to sell everything and go all in on precious metals.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>I dunno man, I'm starting to think these guys may be right, they raise interest rates, the whole house of cards comes crashing down around us, and everybody loses everything.
Except for PMs, they will go up.
Time to sell everything and go all in on precious metals. >>
Did you know that facetious is the only practical word in the English language where all the vowels are used in alphabetical order
Personally I'm still hoping for a one and done .50 pt hike.
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>
<< <i>I dunno man, I'm starting to think these guys may be right, they raise interest rates, the whole house of cards comes crashing down around us, and everybody loses everything.
Except for PMs, they will go up.
Time to sell everything and go all in on precious metals. >>
Did you know that facetious is the only practical word in the English language where all the vowels are used in alphabetical order
Personally I'm still hoping for a one and done .50 pt hike.
mark >>
People need to take off their rose colored glasses. A half percent interest rate hike will add an almost additional $95,000,000,000 ($19T X 0.5%) annually to the federal budget to service the national debt. Where do we get this money? Just print more money?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I dunno man, I'm starting to think these guys may be right, they raise interest rates, the whole house of cards comes crashing down around us, and everybody loses everything.
Except for PMs, they will go up.
Time to sell everything and go all in on precious metals. >>
Did you know that facetious is the only practical word in the English language where all the vowels are used in alphabetical order
Personally I'm still hoping for a one and done .50 pt hike.
mark >>
People need to take off their rose colored glasses. A half percent interest rate hike will add an almost additional $95,000,000,000 ($19T X 0.5%) annually to the federal budget to service the national debt. Where do we get this money? Just print more money? >>
In theory it could add that much but all $19T doesn't come due next year. A lot of it doesn't come due until 2045 and the average maturity is probably 10 years out. But yes, in the long run rates will never be able return to the post war average of 4%+. Even 2% doesn't seem possible.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I dunno man, I'm starting to think these guys may be right, they raise interest rates, the whole house of cards comes crashing down around us, and everybody loses everything.
Except for PMs, they will go up.
Time to sell everything and go all in on precious metals. >>
Did you know that facetious is the only practical word in the English language where all the vowels are used in alphabetical order
Personally I'm still hoping for a one and done .50 pt hike.
mark >>
People need to take off their rose colored glasses. A half percent interest rate hike will add an almost additional $95,000,000,000 ($19T X 0.5%) annually to the federal budget to service the national debt. Where do we get this money? Just print more money? >>
Actually it will not increase existing debt payments by a single cent. No rose colored glasses needed.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I dunno man, I'm starting to think these guys may be right, they raise interest rates, the whole house of cards comes crashing down around us, and everybody loses everything.
Except for PMs, they will go up.
Time to sell everything and go all in on precious metals. >>
Did you know that facetious is the only practical word in the English language where all the vowels are used in alphabetical order
Personally I'm still hoping for a one and done .50 pt hike.
mark >>
People need to take off their rose colored glasses. A half percent interest rate hike will add an almost additional $95,000,000,000 ($19T X 0.5%) annually to the federal budget to service the national debt. Where do we get this money? Just print more money? >>
This just isn't true
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>So higher interest rates don't increase the cost of servicing the national debt? How is this possible? Could you guys explain this to me? I would think those that hold our debt are expecting to be paid interest at the prevailing rates otherwise they would take their money and put it where the interest rates are higher. >>
If rates change the price that existing bonds trade at will fluctuate but the interest rate they were issued at will not . It will make a difference to those that hold the bonds but not to the issuer.
Its not true that raising interest rates won't effect debt though. Derivatives are where the damage will be done there. How much of that will net out is anyone's guess . I think some state and local governments will get burned on some foolish deals that they entered into with big banks , that would probably take more than just 1/4% hike to bite anyone .
<< <i>So higher interest rates don't increase the cost of servicing the national debt? How is this possible? Could you guys explain this to me? I would think those that hold our debt are expecting to be paid interest at the prevailing rates otherwise they would take their money and put it where the interest rates are higher. >>
It does, however, only for the slice that is up for refinancing immediately. A lot of of the debt is in 10+ year treasuries.
Think of it this way, if a person has a mortgage, a hike in interest rates doesn't affect that existing mortgage, only new applicants seeking a new mortgage. The other factors are that the Fed hike is for short term rates. This may or may not push up 5 year, 10 year and longer rates. Eventually, yes, higher rates will likely have a meaningful effect on the debt, but not as your calculation indicated.
Yet another factor is if there is inflation, there is more tax revenue from higher wages and prices. So while the debt service payment goes up so in theory will the revenue base on the GDP. Think about people that got mortgages in the 1960s on $30,000 houses. Those 1960 era mortgage payments seemed like next to nothing in the 1980s and 1990s as the mortgages were winding down because wages, and prices in general were much higher.
So where would they go?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>those that hold our debt are expecting to be paid interest at the prevailing rates otherwise they would take their money and put it where the interest rates are higher.
So where would they go? >>
Stocks, bonds, art/antiques, real estate, PM's, etc. Low interest government bonds can't be the only game in town.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>
<< <i>those that hold our debt are expecting to be paid interest at the prevailing rates otherwise they would take their money and put it where the interest rates are higher.
So where would they go? >>
Stocks, bonds, art/antiques, real estate, PM's, etc. Low interest government bonds can't be the only game in town. >>
You are mixing issues. Those that hold our debt are also already in the stock and bond market. They could always re allocate I suppose. U.S Treasuries just happen to be the safest part of their portfolio. Raising rates should make our debt even more desirable as perverse as it might sound. It is what it is. The markets need clarity regardless.
Art/antiques and Real Estate aren't fungible nor liquid and are different asset classes.
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
.... won't they just print more bonds to pay the interest on existing bonds??
Perhaps the game of musical chairs will continue for a while longer.
<< <i>Well... since they have printed bonds to bail everything else out....
.... won't they just print more bonds to pay the interest on existing bonds??
Perhaps the game of musical chairs will continue for a while longer. >>
Well they were issuing AND buying their own bonds for years. Progress I guess
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
The US Treasury market is the elephant in the room. It reminds me of Milo Minderbinder's Syndicate in Joseph Heller's "Catch 22", where everybody owns a share. It doesn't have to make sense as long as everyone thinks they could be worse off otherwise, and as long as they can get goodies on the side through their "connections" when nobody else can get them.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
<< <i>those that hold our debt are expecting to be paid interest at the prevailing rates otherwise they would take their money and put it where the interest rates are higher.
So where would they go? >>
Stocks, bonds, art/antiques, real estate, PM's, etc. Low interest government bonds can't be the only game in town. >>
Today from Carl Icahn
Danger ahead - that's the warning from Carl Icahn in a video coming tomorrow.
The activist says low rates caused bubbles in art, real estate and high-yield bonds – with potentially dramatic consequences.
"It's like giving somebody medicine and this medicine is being given and given and given and we don't know what's going to happen - you don't know how bad it's going to be. We do know when we did it a few years ago it caused a catastrophe, it caused '08. Where do you draw the line?"
In a telephone interview, Icahn said he's "more hedged now than I've been in years."
"The Fed may have backed itself into a corner. They should have absolutely raised rates six months ago," adding it's difficult now because of global concerns.
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Look for any increase to be short lived.
A responsible FED would increase their rate to 6+% without any need to publicly justify it.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
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Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
well they raised rates today. Sort of
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Just as some of us foresaw in September.
well they raised rates today. Sort of
mark
Just as some of us foresaw in September.
At least. According to the statement: "...the target fed-funds rate would reach a 1.4% rate at the end of 2016...in 2017 to 2.4% and in 2018 to 3.3%."
Story
Link dead due to "Marke*****ch" containing a no-no in the 6th-9th letters.
well they raised rates today. Sort of
mark
It's their way of trying to raise hope.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
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Anyone wonder if Obama will have a bail out of states before he leaves office? Basically state and big city pensions.
Realizing the current administration has only 13 months remaining, it would seem Illinois is the only state that could go down in that time-frame. Cities? Most can survive 2016 as well. Public sector pensions are a problematic issue to be sure.
I think it will be instructive to see what the Republican Congress does with respect to the next budget. Can they actually do a "normal" one, not an omnibus give everyone a bone bill. Of course it will be in the middle of a presidential election, so many will have to bloviate for political reasons (both sides). Until we get spending under control, things will remain as is, IMHO
federal budget is meaningless when there are no restraints on creating the money to pay for them. This is why there is no longer a gold standard and a strong reason for why there should be one.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.