If that banker knows there is no way he could collect, or if collection would harm himself, then he will rip up the contract. That's my point and has been all along.
Give me one example. For starters, let's talk about Goldman Sachs not tearing up their contract with AIG and then having Paulson get AIG bailed out by the taxpayers instead, so that Goldman could pay out their huge bonuses that year (2008).
I'm sure we could come up with some JPM examples as easily.
Derision isn't enough to deflect from the real issue. Is it?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i> So Baley, what are all those guys on your list saying? >>
That the quantum wave functions instantaneously collapse around local eigenstates as observations are made by conscious observers of the systems, who attempt to describe both the position and momentum of the participants. Because these observations are irreversible, and the square of a negative number (as used to describe the amplitude of the wave function and its respective uncertainty) the result is a positive, non-zero probability of all possible outcomes, which are defined by the intrinsic arrow of time, and therefore the second law of thermodynamics is upheld in the local macrostates, despite the confounding effects of quantum entanglements of the wave forms, as well as gravity.
<< <i> So Baley, what are all those guys on your list saying? >>
That the quantum wave functions instantaneously collapse around local eigenstates as observations are made by conscious observers of the systems, who attempt to describe both the position and momentum of the participants. Because these observations are irreversible, and the square of a negative number (as used to describe the amplitude of the wave function and its respective uncertainty) the result is a positive, non-zero probability of all possible outcomes, which are defined by the intrinsic arrow of time, and therefore the second law of thermodynamics is upheld in the local macrostates, despite the confounding effects of quantum entanglements of the wave forms, as well as gravity. >>
<< <i>If that banker knows there is no way he could collect, or if collection would harm himself, then he will rip up the contract. That's my point and has been all along.
Give me one example. For starters, let's talk about Goldman Sachs not tearing up their contract with AIG and then having Paulson get AIG bailed out by the taxpayers instead, so that Goldman could pay out their huge bonuses that year (2008).
I'm sure we could come up with some JPM examples as easily.
Derision isn't enough to deflect from the real issue. Is it? >>
The reality is that GS & JPM have placed so many employees into top govt positions that it looks like they are a AAA farm team for DC. Rarely do those former employees rock the boat. They need a home to come back to after DC.
<< <i>If that banker knows there is no way he could collect, or if collection would harm himself, then he will rip up the contract. That's my point and has been all along.
Give me one example. For starters, let's talk about Goldman Sachs not tearing up their contract with AIG and then having Paulson get AIG bailed out by the taxpayers instead, so that Goldman could pay out their huge bonuses that year (2008).
I'm sure we could come up with some JPM examples as easily.
Derision isn't enough to deflect from the real issue. Is it? >>
You think a lot of derivatives were NOT ripped up in 2008?
<< <i>They would define "cash" as interest bearing deposits or short term Treasury Bills. >>
Many fail to realize this. >>
This is an average since 1975; many are probably too young to remember that interest rates on ordinary bank deposits and CDs used to be significantly higher.
I remember getting 6%, back when I started working in the late 1980's
Prove to me there even are any derivatives. I mean, show me a contract.
You said that a lot of the derivative contracts were ripped up. I asked you for some documentation and you don't have any. What makes your assertions any more valid than Zerohedge?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>What banker is going to tear up a contract from a party that owes him $100 billion or so? None
If that banker knows there is no way he could collect, or if collection would harm himself, then he will rip up the contract. That's my point and has been all along. Your concern about trillions or quadrillions in derivatives is not a concern of mine. Is it really worth being worried all your life for a "few days of stone age"? Go on a camping trip for a week. You'll survive and might even have fun. >>
Coho, You were the one that said the banker would rip up the contract. No one that is a party to an agreement is going to disclose it here.
You made a statement off the cuff that is patently absurd. If one party can collect, they will. If they can't then it's an offset on gains.
"Nobody" just rips up contracts.
Edit: it's an offset with a judgement. Which sometimes can be a bear and expensive.
<< <i>They would define "cash" as interest bearing deposits or short term Treasury Bills. >>
Many fail to realize this. >>
This is an average since 1975; many are probably too young to remember that interest rates on ordinary bank deposits and CDs used to be significantly higher.
I remember getting 6%, back when I started working in the late 1980's >>
My best CD rate was 15.3% in 1981. You had to lock in $10k for 30 months to get it though. The good old days.
<< <i>Prove to me there even are any derivatives. I mean, show me a contract.
You said that a lot of the derivative contracts were ripped up. I asked you for some documentation and you don't have any. What makes your assertions any more valid than Zerohedge? >>
It's called common sense of which many on this board have none.
I could explain this you but I would just get dismissed as usual. So I'll let you draw upon your vast network of sources, information and experience and contemplate AIG, GS, and GOVT.
<< <i>They would define "cash" as interest bearing deposits or short term Treasury Bills. >>
Many fail to realize this. >>
This is an average since 1975; many are probably too young to remember that interest rates on ordinary bank deposits and CDs used to be significantly higher.
I remember getting 6%, back when I started working in the late 1980's >>
My best CD rate was 15.3% in 1981. You had to lock in $10k for 30 months to get it though. The good old days. >>
Remember it well...Good ole days? NOT. 30 year Mortgage rate at 18%, double digit inflation. BTW I doubled my $$$$ on one of those 5 year C.D's.
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
<< <i>You think a lot of derivatives were NOT ripped up in 2008?
I repeat, give me one example. >>
Prove to me there even are any derivatives. I mean, show me a contract. >>
I take it,
You are directing that request to Admiral Rickovers right hand man? He posts about derivatives, doesn't he? He would be in the best position to know.
However, you stated the contracts would be ripped up and were KINDLY asked to verify it. Until now you have tried every keyboard warrior trick in the book to skirt around the statement.
You will be owned until you can verify your post. I will just sit back and let you dig a little deeper.
When I sign loan docs secured by a deed of trust, I fully expect for the lender to seek possession if I default. If I sign a lease, and the lessor defaults I seek recourse under the lease agreement. Nobody is talking about ripping up contracts in these cases.
<< <i>You think a lot of derivatives were NOT ripped up in 2008?
I repeat, give me one example. >>
Prove to me there even are any derivatives. I mean, show me a contract. >>
Probably the dumbest statement ever posted here on the forum....especially in light of the 2008 banking crisis.
There must be dozens of agencies world wide that are involved in trading, regulation, and accounting of otc derivatives....yet they don't exist....lol. Sept 2008 never happened. The FASB ruled in 2008 that they could be marked to model vs. marked to model....a lot of effort for "nothing." And then how much time have Dodd-Frank regulators invested in bringing this regulation to fruition? Last I checked over 1500 visits were paid to the CFTC by banking and corporate lobbyists for trying to negotiate the terms in D-F....with 80-90% of the otc derivatives "wording" gutted or removed. But otc derivatives don't exist....lol. After the peak of the 2008 financial crisis the BIS decided that listing otc derivatives at $1.14 QUAD was nuts. So they revamped the reporting model and gave them a 40% haircut down to $680 TRILL....a lot of effort for something that doesn't exist. Greenspan, Rubin, and Summers strongly supported no regulation of otc derivatives back in 2000....again...lots of time wasted for a non-existent item. And when Hank Paulson helped payout out $TRILLIONs to big banks/corporations on winning otc derivs bets (MBS and CDS), I'm sure he asked them all to provide millions of contracts before paying out.....lol. For someone who prides themselves on not believing in conspiracies....you've just concocted about the biggest one known to mankind......
Prove to me that you even own a single share in any US or foreign corporate stock. I mean, show me the actual stock certificate or the entry at Cede & Co. (DTCC) that shows Cohodk really owns those shares. Good luck Mr. Phelps.
<< <i>....You think a lot of derivatives were NOT ripped up in 2008? >>
Any you think a LOT of otc derivatives bets were not paid out in cash 2008? (ie in the $TRILLIONs)
No doubt "some" were netted out. But I'd bet almost none were netted out/ripped up with Lehman. Lehman received 9% on the dollar for their original derivative's positions....after netting, etc. No doubt it's "value" was reported at 100% many months and weeks before the crash. That showed that notional amount can indeed be the full liability/risk. The irony is that on the quarterly OCC report the big banks report an 87.6% "bilateral netting benefit" to the players. I wonder where that benefit was with Lehman....lol. They are the only company to go through an actual dissection and derivatives accounting. So much for an 87% reduction in risk via "netting." The total amount of US otc derivatives that came into play in the 2008 crisis were $62 TRILL in CDS and approx $7 TRILL in MBS. That's based on my memory, they could be a couple TRILL either way. The original screen shots are still out there for review. So with $69 TRILL notional at risk, how many were netted and how many were paid out. I've reference the GAO and other sources that indicate the cost of the 2008 blowup was in the $12-$22 TRILL range.
I recall the CDS position to be down to around $30-$38 TRILL immediately after that 2008 blow up (reduced by payouts and netting). So I suspect that the payout rate on those was at least 25-30%. Maybe up to half were netted. On the MBS probably >50% were paid out as you had mainstream hedge funds looking to cash out their winning chips. The important thing is that the $12-$22 TRILL hit was still a huge effect on the markets. So what happens when the Interest Rate derivatives become "stressed" someday? There are approx $158 TRILL on the books of US banks (no idea as to what isn't reported). If we assume the same type of % numbers from 2008, that could be $25-$40 TRILL requiring pay out....after netting...and after the 87% "benefit." How's that gonna fly? The winners will want cash, companies or other tangible property...not checks. I do note that credit derivs are now at approx $9 TRILL per the OCC. But accounting for the 2008 "haircut" those are more like $15 TRILL per 2008 reporting rules.
Edited "Lehman received 9% on the dollar" from "Lehman netted 9% on the dollar" to remove confusion from using "netting" twice. I'm sure Streeter will understand.
<< <i>Prove to me there even are any derivatives. I mean, show me a contract. >>
Most ETFs and many exchange issues and mutual funds, including index funds, are derivatives.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
So far, a GSR short term(?) top called on August 26th as the Streeter Sentiment Index (SSI) reached extremes.
GSR is a fascinating study in 2015. Note the 5 (or even 7) waves of an expanding wedge that began in early January. Then we have the important 5th wave that began 3 months ago. It too has a 5 wave expanded wedge structure in play that essentially reached the upper wedge line. So now what? Wedge on wedge patterns have been typically ending to the downside this past year or two....at least when they show up only in gold or silver. Today's further dip filled up the gap in the 76-77 range. I only see 2 real options with the current set up. Either GSR is going to blow sky high in the near future off this wedge/wedge pattern, or break down just as hard back down to the low 70's or upper 60's. From such an extreme pattern there's no real middle ground. It's either boom or bust. I sort of lean towards one final thrust higher to anywhere from 80-88, while at the same time gold might retrace into the $1075-$1110 area, or set a new low. But first, probably a move back down to 74.5. It's a powder keg for either direction though. It will likely go with the USDollar, yet that is at a similar cross roads if it makes it to 98.0.
From the weekly chart, the 2011 rally was sort of impulsive. But everything that has followed since then is just a methodical ramp similar to a rising diagonal (ie corrective move). The 3 major peaks have been about 7 quarters apart, followed by a 3 quarter rebound peak. GSR is at the 3 quarter bounce point right here....and doing that in a volatile way with stacked expanding wedges. Another way to look at it is a high of some sort every 3-4 quarters. There are 3 rally legs logged so far. And those have been 6-7 quarters apart. The current timing since the last rally leg commenced is 4-1/2 quarters. So it's from 4-8 months early to begin another one.
In comparing last month's volume ratio (Netdania) GSR recorded the highest ever monthly or weekly volume over the past 4-1/2 years, even higher than the Silver price peak in spring 2011. So the sentiment & volume extremes seen a week ago were as extreme as it was the first week in May 2011. The ratio volume of GLD/SLV isn't quite as striking, but you can still see the 2015 August extreme which is on par with April-June 2013.
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I bet you are wondering how this works.
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"National Coin Broker would like to offer you a special invitation to our innovative silver lease program. Participants in this unique program are paid a monthly 3.9-5% CASH dividend for leasing their physical silver to the program.
I bet you are wondering how this works..... >>
Seems pretty simple. They have "your" silver and you don't. 4-5% per month dividend. Isn't that like 50% per year? First thing that comes to mind is scam. Never underestimate the power of the coin dealer mind.
Is the 4-5% per month on top of the 15-35% premium that many silver products are bringing? Or do they give you that 5% only on spot (ie you lose 10-25%). I'm surprised Tulving didn't come up with this brainstorm before he went under.
"National Coin Broker would like to offer you a special invitation to our innovative silver lease program. Participants in this unique program are paid a monthly 3.9-5% CASH dividend for leasing their physical silver to the program.
I bet you are wondering how this works..... >>
Seems pretty simple. They have "your" silver and you don't. 4-5% per month dividend. Isn't that like 50% per year? First thing that comes to mind is scam. Never underestimate the power of the coin dealer mind.
Is the 4-5% per month on top of the 15-35% premium that many silver products are bringing? Or do they give you that 5% only on spot (ie you lose 10-25%). I'm surprised Tulving didn't come up with this brainstorm before he went under. >>
The 4-5% per month dividend is 50-60% per year. That's what caught my eye - send them $5k in eagles and get a $2500 annual dividend. What's not to like?
This was an "Exclusive offer for select readers of Coin Week". First such solicitation I've received. I did not respond.
Hey now! Being from Georgia I take offense to that stereotype. We call them mobile mansions around these parts.
Hey, Wes! Weren't you the one who sleuthed them down and found their location? Around here, they would be called ozarkian mansions.
And Florida? Man, the first time I bought gold contracts was from a fly-by-night operation in Ft. Lauderdale by the name of International Precious Metals Corp. I was lucky and made several years' salary on the way up. After IPMC folded, the guy I had dealt with joined Bengal Trading, also in Ft. Lauderdale. With Bengal, I made one trade, lost $1,000 and got out for the next 18 years.
No, I did not manage to buy at the top in 1980 and hold onto my position for 31 years until 2011. My "broker" actually started talking me out of my position on the way up, but I did hold about half of it as it went over the waterfall to around $35. It was fun.
Besides, 2011 wasn't 1980 - it was more like 1974. Right now, we're at about 1978. There's something bubbling underneath but it's not quite at the surface yet. I'll know it, if and when I see it.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Has gold or silver ever outperformed other asset classes during a period of low inflation, low oil prices, low interest rates?
I think this is a key question. I still gauge my opinion based on "real rates" which compare a Treasury rate (usually the 10 year) to the real rate of inflation. I also gauge my opinion based on the reality of market manipulation.
Until we have working markets that can be valued in a classical net present value financial analysis, we are living in Gadansk in pre-Solidarity times.
Hey, 2+2 = 4. That still works for me.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Isnt it interesting jmski? The very asset class that was supposed to protect us from inflation is down 40-70% over the last 4 years and is at the same prices as 5-9 years ago.
I know your waiting for the markets to regain normalcy, but weren't they more normal in the 80s and 90s when we were complaining about inflation and high govt spending and wars and immigration and corruption? PM'S still did nothing then, so why should today be different?
<< <i>Has gold or silver ever outperformed other asset classes during a period of low inflation, low oil prices, low interest rates? >>
Sure. There are examples that are easy to find if one is willing to look at the history of the past 25, 45, 90 years. Gold as represented by the gold miners, was probably the best performing asset class of the 1932-1936 period. In fact it was the best class from 1926-1936 as well. Considering that gold was not truly available to "float" until August 15th 1971, the more recent examples are in the past 45 years. Prior to that you'd have to use the gold mining companies to offer up a fair comparison.
Someone wake me up when the stock market (Dow, S&P 500, Russell 2000) has finally outperformed silver and gold bullion since 2000. "Pet Rocks" still winning.
Too bad those new fangled gizmo gadget service companies like AAPL, NFLX, MNST, BIIB, ect kicked the pituty out of gold since 2000. As did some stodgy old companies that existed way before roadrunner was a twinkle in his daddys eye.
Gosh darn facts always gettin in the way of rhetoric.
Too bad those new fangled gizmo gadget service companies like AAPL, NFLX, MNST, BIIB, ect kicked the pituty out of gold since 2000. As did some stodgy old companies that existed way before roadrunner was a twinkle in his daddys eye.
Gosh darn facts always gettin in the way of rhetoric. >>
You can only find 4 companies out of thousands? Talk about selective picking....lol. Just get over it already that gold and precious metals have kicked the butt out of the Dow, S&P, Russell, etc. over the past 15 years. It's a plain and simple fact. No argument is needed. And unless you personally held those 4 "selected" companies in your own portfolio for the past 10-15 years, you really don't have any business claiming what great performers they are or were. They might have been great for someone, just not for Cohodk.
Is this the same "tech savvy" Cohodk that dumped all over Google and Amazon in the past 3-10 years right here on the forum stating they were done, finished, kaput? Where was your "new fangled gizmo gadget" 5th sense back then? And if you dumped all over those 2 tech stocks, I can only imagine what you must have been saying about AAPL when it was struggling for many years. How about in 2007-2009 when it lost 60% of its share price? Were you buying it hand over fist then? Probably not. Recommending it here? Probably not. Can you show us a single thread where you recommend AAPL as a great 2 year hold? Picking out the "winners" years later is not much of a skill. But it seems to be one you have mastered. Keep on revising history and facts. That seems to suit you well. You recommended miners in early 2015. How has that worked out for you? We know you missed most or all of the 2001-2011 commodities and PM's boom....many 10 to 100 baggers in that run. Posting a chart of Microsoft isn't going to change that fact....unless you owned MSFT for most of that run.
BIIB had a 45% correction this year. Even gold can't do anything as crazy as that....lol. Do you still recommend BIIB? Where will it be in 2-3 years based on the current chart? Are you recommended this for clients? Sure, it's had a 10 bagger the past 5 years or so. That was the easy part. Now what? There is where you can strut your stuff. Everyone knows where things went from 2009-2015. What about the next 3-5 years? Tell us where your darlings will be (AAPL, NFLX, MNST, BIIB). Looks to me like MNST is shaping up to be the next "toasted" Green Mountain Coffee.
Picking out the "winners" years later is not much of a skill.
No, picking them at the beginning of the year is one way to track performance, for those who have chosen to participate in such threads. And there is also some commentary about markets in them. One can also track previous years' picks to see how they have done since, to measure longer term performance.
The metals prices charts are easy to compare to any listed asset over time
Would it really make a difference to you roadrunner if I picked 1 stock or 1000? And why did you specify the year 2000, why not 2002, or 1993, or your favorite year 1977?
Since you think the stock market stinks so bad why is that if one had made equal dollar investments in gold and the sp500 in 1996 or 2008 (before it crashed), you would have the same amount of money. (Not counting dividends which gold does not pay so the return on stocks is actually higher). So if stocks stink so bad, surely you must admit gold stinks equally. Come on, there must be a 1000 word twisted fact rant you could write about this.
I know your waiting for the markets to regain normalcy, but weren't they more normal in the 80s and 90s when we were complaining about inflation and high govt spending and wars and immigration and corruption? PM'S still did nothing then, so why should today be different?
I'll break it down into pieces for you, and I'm sure you'll find ways to spin any comments. Don't we all? lol.
Inflation. The 1980's weren't known for inflation, nor were the 1990's. What are you referring to?
High Gov't spending. It's become worse by orders of magnitude.
Wars. We are getting involved in more locations than seems remotely prudent, and we have made just about all the wrong moves that we could possibly make in terms of immigration, rules of engagement, and military preparedness. The blowback is worse than ever before and the problems are larger by orders of magnitude.
Corruption. Starting with Graham, Leach, Bliley in 1999. Unlike the late 1980's there have been ZERO prosecutions flowing from the financial/banking/real estate crisis starting in 2008. Much, much worse since 2008, it's now thoroughly institutionalized at the highest levels in government.
Metals may or may not "do nothing" but I'll take them as something real and negotiable any day. Pick your own poison. You trust the banks and big gov, lol. I don't.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Comments
And Blackwater and Blackrock.
So Baley, what are all those guys on your list saying?
I knew it would happen.
Give me one example. For starters, let's talk about Goldman Sachs not tearing up their contract with AIG and then having Paulson get AIG bailed out by the taxpayers instead, so that Goldman could pay out their huge bonuses that year (2008).
I'm sure we could come up with some JPM examples as easily.
Derision isn't enough to deflect from the real issue. Is it?
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
So Baley, what are all those guys on your list saying?
That the quantum wave functions instantaneously collapse around local eigenstates as observations are made by conscious observers of the systems, who attempt to describe both the position and momentum of the participants. Because these observations are irreversible, and the square of a negative number (as used to describe the amplitude of the wave function and its respective uncertainty) the result is a positive, non-zero probability of all possible outcomes, which are defined by the intrinsic arrow of time, and therefore the second law of thermodynamics is upheld in the local macrostates, despite the confounding effects of quantum entanglements of the wave forms, as well as gravity.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>
<< <i>
So Baley, what are all those guys on your list saying?
That the quantum wave functions instantaneously collapse around local eigenstates as observations are made by conscious observers of the systems, who attempt to describe both the position and momentum of the participants. Because these observations are irreversible, and the square of a negative number (as used to describe the amplitude of the wave function and its respective uncertainty) the result is a positive, non-zero probability of all possible outcomes, which are defined by the intrinsic arrow of time, and therefore the second law of thermodynamics is upheld in the local macrostates, despite the confounding effects of quantum entanglements of the wave forms, as well as gravity. >>
So.
You HAVE been reading ZH.
<< <i>If that banker knows there is no way he could collect, or if collection would harm himself, then he will rip up the contract. That's my point and has been all along.
Give me one example. For starters, let's talk about Goldman Sachs not tearing up their contract with AIG and then having Paulson get AIG bailed out by the taxpayers instead, so that Goldman could pay out their huge bonuses that year (2008).
I'm sure we could come up with some JPM examples as easily.
Derision isn't enough to deflect from the real issue. Is it? >>
The reality is that GS & JPM have placed so many employees into top govt positions that it looks like they are a AAA farm team for DC. Rarely do those former employees rock the boat. They need a home to come back to after DC.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>If that banker knows there is no way he could collect, or if collection would harm himself, then he will rip up the contract. That's my point and has been all along.
Give me one example. For starters, let's talk about Goldman Sachs not tearing up their contract with AIG and then having Paulson get AIG bailed out by the taxpayers instead, so that Goldman could pay out their huge bonuses that year (2008).
I'm sure we could come up with some JPM examples as easily.
Derision isn't enough to deflect from the real issue. Is it? >>
You think a lot of derivatives were NOT ripped up in 2008?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>1.1% cash. Hah. Right.
<< <i>They would define "cash" as interest bearing deposits or short term Treasury Bills. >>
Many fail to realize this. >>
This is an average since 1975; many are probably too young to remember that interest rates on ordinary bank deposits and CDs used to be significantly higher.
I remember getting 6%, back when I started working in the late 1980's
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I repeat, give me one example.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>You think a lot of derivatives were NOT ripped up in 2008?
I repeat, give me one example. >>
Prove to me there even are any derivatives. I mean, show me a contract.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
You said that a lot of the derivative contracts were ripped up. I asked you for some documentation and you don't have any. What makes your assertions any more valid than Zerohedge?
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>What banker is going to tear up a contract from a party that owes him $100 billion or so? None
If that banker knows there is no way he could collect, or if collection would harm himself, then he will rip up the contract. That's my point and has been all along. Your concern about trillions or quadrillions in derivatives is not a concern of mine. Is it really worth being worried all your life for a "few days of stone age"? Go on a camping trip for a week. You'll survive and might even have fun. >>
Coho,
You were the one that said the banker would rip up the contract. No one that is a party to an agreement is going to disclose it here.
You made a statement off the cuff that is patently absurd. If one party can collect, they will. If they can't then it's an offset on gains.
"Nobody" just rips up contracts.
Edit: it's an offset with a judgement. Which sometimes can be a bear and expensive.
<< <i>
<< <i>1.1% cash. Hah. Right.
<< <i>They would define "cash" as interest bearing deposits or short term Treasury Bills. >>
Many fail to realize this. >>
This is an average since 1975; many are probably too young to remember that interest rates on ordinary bank deposits and CDs used to be significantly higher.
I remember getting 6%, back when I started working in the late 1980's >>
My best CD rate was 15.3% in 1981. You had to lock in $10k for 30 months to get it though. The good old days.
If you wish to worry about the end of the world, then have fun. I'm watching the Eagles crush the Packers while eating some wings and drinking beer.
Streeter says "nobody" rips up contracts. Apparently he aint much of a businessman.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Prove to me there even are any derivatives. I mean, show me a contract.
You said that a lot of the derivative contracts were ripped up. I asked you for some documentation and you don't have any. What makes your assertions any more valid than Zerohedge? >>
It's called common sense of which many on this board have none.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I know this for the same reason Russia didn't nuke the USA.
If you wish to worry about the end of the world, then have fun. I'm watching the Eagles crush the Packers while eating some wings and drinking beer.
Streeter says "nobody" rips up contracts. Apparently he aint much of a businessman. >>
Some people would agree.
I thought about just seeing how many posts you could do that no one responds to but I took pity at three.
We pity in others only the those evils which we ourselves have experienced.
Jean-Jacques Rousseau
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>1.1% cash. Hah. Right.
<< <i>They would define "cash" as interest bearing deposits or short term Treasury Bills. >>
Many fail to realize this. >>
This is an average since 1975; many are probably too young to remember that interest rates on ordinary bank deposits and CDs used to be significantly higher.
I remember getting 6%, back when I started working in the late 1980's >>
My best CD rate was 15.3% in 1981. You had to lock in $10k for 30 months to get it though. The good old days.
Remember it well...Good ole days? NOT. 30 year Mortgage rate at 18%, double digit inflation. BTW I doubled my $$$$ on one of those 5 year C.D's.
<< <i>
<< <i>You think a lot of derivatives were NOT ripped up in 2008?
I repeat, give me one example. >>
Prove to me there even are any derivatives. I mean, show me a contract. >>
I take it,
You are directing that request to Admiral Rickovers right hand man? He posts about derivatives, doesn't he? He would be in the best position to know.
However, you stated the contracts would be ripped up and were KINDLY asked to verify it. Until now you have tried every keyboard warrior trick in the book to skirt around the statement.
You will be owned until you can verify your post. I will just sit back and let you dig a little deeper.
When I sign loan docs secured by a deed of trust, I fully expect for the lender to seek possession if I default. If I sign a lease, and the lessor defaults I seek recourse under the lease agreement. Nobody is talking about ripping up contracts in these cases.
Stay liquid Coho, it'll come in handy. See ya.
<< <i>
<< <i>You think a lot of derivatives were NOT ripped up in 2008?
I repeat, give me one example. >>
Prove to me there even are any derivatives. I mean, show me a contract. >>
Probably the dumbest statement ever posted here on the forum....especially in light of the 2008 banking crisis.
There must be dozens of agencies world wide that are involved in trading, regulation, and accounting of otc derivatives....yet they don't exist....lol. Sept 2008 never happened. The FASB ruled in 2008 that they could be marked to model vs. marked to model....a lot of effort for "nothing." And then how much time have Dodd-Frank regulators invested in bringing this regulation to fruition? Last I checked over 1500 visits were paid to the CFTC by banking and corporate lobbyists for trying to negotiate the terms in D-F....with 80-90% of the otc derivatives "wording" gutted or removed. But otc derivatives don't exist....lol. After the peak of the 2008 financial crisis the BIS decided that listing otc derivatives at $1.14 QUAD was nuts. So they revamped the reporting model and gave them a 40% haircut down to $680 TRILL....a lot of effort for something that doesn't exist. Greenspan, Rubin, and Summers strongly supported no regulation of otc derivatives back in 2000....again...lots of time wasted for a non-existent item. And when Hank Paulson helped payout out $TRILLIONs to big banks/corporations on winning otc derivs bets (MBS and CDS), I'm sure he asked them all to provide millions of contracts before paying out.....lol. For someone who prides themselves on not believing in conspiracies....you've just concocted about the biggest one known to mankind......
Prove to me that you even own a single share in any US or foreign corporate stock. I mean, show me the actual stock certificate or the entry at Cede & Co. (DTCC) that shows Cohodk really owns those shares. Good luck Mr. Phelps.
<< <i>....You think a lot of derivatives were NOT ripped up in 2008? >>
Any you think a LOT of otc derivatives bets were not paid out in cash 2008? (ie in the $TRILLIONs)
No doubt "some" were netted out. But I'd bet almost none were netted out/ripped up with Lehman. Lehman received 9% on the dollar for their original derivative's positions....after netting, etc. No doubt it's "value" was reported at 100% many months and weeks before the crash. That showed that notional amount can indeed be the full liability/risk. The irony is that on the quarterly OCC report the big banks report an 87.6% "bilateral netting benefit" to the players. I wonder where that benefit was with Lehman....lol. They are the only company to go through an actual dissection and derivatives accounting. So much for an 87% reduction in risk via "netting." The total amount of US otc derivatives that came into play in the 2008 crisis were $62 TRILL in CDS and approx $7 TRILL in MBS. That's based on my memory, they could be a couple TRILL either way. The original screen shots are still out there for review. So with $69 TRILL notional at risk, how many were netted and how many were paid out. I've reference the GAO and other sources that indicate the cost of the 2008 blowup was in the $12-$22 TRILL range.
I recall the CDS position to be down to around $30-$38 TRILL immediately after that 2008 blow up (reduced by payouts and netting). So I suspect that the payout rate on those was at least 25-30%. Maybe up to half were netted. On the MBS probably >50% were paid out as you had mainstream hedge funds looking to cash out their winning chips. The important thing is that the $12-$22 TRILL hit was still a huge effect on the markets. So what happens when the Interest Rate derivatives become "stressed" someday? There are approx $158 TRILL on the books of US banks (no idea as to what isn't reported). If we assume the same type of % numbers from 2008, that could be $25-$40 TRILL requiring pay out....after netting...and after the 87% "benefit." How's that gonna fly? The winners will want cash, companies or other tangible property...not checks. I do note that credit derivs are now at approx $9 TRILL per the OCC. But accounting for the 2008 "haircut" those are more like $15 TRILL per 2008 reporting rules.
Edited "Lehman received 9% on the dollar" from "Lehman netted 9% on the dollar" to remove confusion from using "netting" twice. I'm sure Streeter will understand.
<< <i>Prove to me there even are any derivatives. I mean, show me a contract. >>
Most ETFs and many exchange issues and mutual funds, including index funds, are derivatives.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>GSR today 79.53 >>
So far, a GSR short term(?) top called on August 26th as the Streeter Sentiment Index (SSI) reached extremes.
GSR is a fascinating study in 2015. Note the 5 (or even 7) waves of an expanding wedge that began in early January. Then we have the important 5th wave that began 3 months ago. It too has a 5 wave expanded wedge structure in play that essentially reached the upper wedge line. So now what? Wedge on wedge patterns have been typically ending to the downside this past year or two....at least when they show up only in gold or silver. Today's further dip filled up the gap in the 76-77 range. I only see 2 real options with the current set up. Either GSR is going to blow sky high in the near future off this wedge/wedge pattern, or break down just as hard back down to the low 70's or upper 60's. From such an extreme pattern there's no real middle ground. It's either boom or bust. I sort of lean towards one final thrust higher to anywhere from 80-88, while at the same time gold might retrace into the $1075-$1110 area, or set a new low. But first, probably a move back down to 74.5. It's a powder keg for either direction though. It will likely go with the USDollar, yet that is at a similar cross roads if it makes it to 98.0.
daily GSR chart 2015
From the weekly chart, the 2011 rally was sort of impulsive. But everything that has followed since then is just a methodical ramp similar to a rising diagonal (ie corrective move). The 3 major peaks have been about 7 quarters apart, followed by a 3 quarter rebound peak. GSR is at the 3 quarter bounce point right here....and doing that in a volatile way with stacked expanding wedges. Another way to look at it is a high of some sort every 3-4 quarters. There are 3 rally legs logged so far. And those have been 6-7 quarters apart. The current timing since the last rally leg commenced is 4-1/2 quarters. So it's from 4-8 months early to begin another one.
In comparing last month's volume ratio (Netdania) GSR recorded the highest ever monthly or weekly volume over the past 4-1/2 years, even higher than the Silver price peak in spring 2011. So the sentiment & volume extremes seen a week ago were as extreme as it was the first week in May 2011. The ratio volume of GLD/SLV isn't quite as striking, but you can still see the 2015 August extreme which is on par with April-June 2013.
5 year weekly chart
QE doing fine in Europe. Draghi suggesting that $900 BILL Euro to be added through the end of 2016. And it could go on longer than that.
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I bet you are wondering how this works.
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Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>How does this offer on silver strike you?
"National Coin Broker would like to offer you a special invitation to our innovative silver lease program. Participants in this unique program are paid a monthly 3.9-5% CASH dividend for leasing their physical silver to the program.
I bet you are wondering how this works..... >>
Seems pretty simple. They have "your" silver and you don't. 4-5% per month dividend. Isn't that like 50% per year? First thing that comes to mind is scam. Never underestimate the power of the coin dealer mind.
Is the 4-5% per month on top of the 15-35% premium that many silver products are bringing? Or do they give you that 5% only on spot (ie you lose 10-25%). I'm surprised Tulving didn't come up with this brainstorm before he went under.
<< <i>
<< <i>How does this offer on silver strike you?
"National Coin Broker would like to offer you a special invitation to our innovative silver lease program. Participants in this unique program are paid a monthly 3.9-5% CASH dividend for leasing their physical silver to the program.
I bet you are wondering how this works..... >>
Seems pretty simple. They have "your" silver and you don't. 4-5% per month dividend. Isn't that like 50% per year? First thing that comes to mind is scam. Never underestimate the power of the coin dealer mind.
Is the 4-5% per month on top of the 15-35% premium that many silver products are bringing? Or do they give you that 5% only on spot (ie you lose 10-25%). I'm surprised Tulving didn't come up with this brainstorm before he went under. >>
The 4-5% per month dividend is 50-60% per year. That's what caught my eye - send them $5k in eagles and get a $2500 annual dividend. What's not to like?
This was an "Exclusive offer for select readers of Coin Week".
lol, I thought it was a spoof but someone actually put out the ad? Do they operate out of a trailer in Georgia like the last bunch?
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Do they operate out of a trailer in Georgia like the last bunch?
Hey now! Being from Georgia I take offense to that stereotype. We call them mobile mansions around these parts.
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
<< <i>National Coin Broker would like to offer you a special invitation to our innovative silver lease program.
lol, I thought it was a spoof but someone actually put out the ad? Do they operate out of a trailer in Georgia like the last bunch?
Georgia trailer? Not hardly, if interested:
National Coin Broker Inc.
Florida Office:
Financial Center
1000 East Hallandale Beach Blvd., Suite 26
Hallandale, FL 33009
New York Office:
30 Wall Street
New York, New York 10005
<< <i>
<< <i>National Coin Broker would like to offer you a special invitation to our innovative silver lease program.
lol, I thought it was a spoof but someone actually put out the ad? Do they operate out of a trailer in Georgia like the last bunch?
Georgia trailer? Not hardly, if interested:
National Coin Broker Inc.
Florida Office:
Financial Center
1000 East Hallandale Beach Blvd., Suite 26
Hallandale, FL 33009
New York Office:
30 Wall Street
New York, New York 10005 >>
Uh oh Florida you know its a scam
Hey, Wes! Weren't you the one who sleuthed them down and found their location? Around here, they would be called ozarkian mansions.
And Florida? Man, the first time I bought gold contracts was from a fly-by-night operation in Ft. Lauderdale by the name of International Precious Metals Corp. I was lucky and made several years' salary on the way up. After IPMC folded, the guy I had dealt with joined Bengal Trading, also in Ft. Lauderdale. With Bengal, I made one trade, lost $1,000 and got out for the next 18 years.
No, I did not manage to buy at the top in 1980 and hold onto my position for 31 years until 2011. My "broker" actually started talking me out of my position on the way up, but I did hold about half of it as it went over the waterfall to around $35. It was fun.
Besides, 2011 wasn't 1980 - it was more like 1974. Right now, we're at about 1978. There's something bubbling underneath but it's not quite at the surface yet. I'll know it, if and when I see it.
I knew it would happen.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Has gold or silver ever outperformed other asset classes during a period of low inflation, low oil prices, low interest rates? >>
I'll let Denny Crane answer that... Never has, never will...
I think this is a key question. I still gauge my opinion based on "real rates" which compare a Treasury rate (usually the 10 year) to the real rate of inflation. I also gauge my opinion based on the reality of market manipulation.
Until we have working markets that can be valued in a classical net present value financial analysis, we are living in Gadansk in pre-Solidarity times.
Hey, 2+2 = 4. That still works for me.
I knew it would happen.
I know your waiting for the markets to regain normalcy, but weren't they more normal in the 80s and 90s when we were complaining about inflation and high govt spending and wars and immigration and corruption? PM'S still did nothing then, so why should today be different?
2+2=4 works for me too.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Has gold or silver ever outperformed other asset classes during a period of low inflation, low oil prices, low interest rates? >>
Sure. There are examples that are easy to find if one is willing to look at the history of the past 25, 45, 90 years. Gold as represented by the gold miners, was probably the best performing asset class of the 1932-1936 period. In fact it was the best class from 1926-1936 as well. Considering that gold was not truly available to "float" until August 15th 1971, the more recent examples are in the past 45 years. Prior to that you'd have to use the gold mining companies to offer up a fair comparison.
Someone wake me up when the stock market (Dow, S&P 500, Russell 2000) has finally outperformed silver and gold bullion since 2000. "Pet Rocks" still winning.
thanks for the trip down memory lane, great grandpa
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Too bad those new fangled gizmo gadget service companies like AAPL, NFLX, MNST, BIIB, ect kicked the pituty out of gold since 2000. As did some stodgy old companies that existed way before roadrunner was a twinkle in his daddys eye.
Gosh darn facts always gettin in the way of rhetoric.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
You are really turning people away.
<< <i>Ah, the good old days.
Too bad those new fangled gizmo gadget service companies like AAPL, NFLX, MNST, BIIB, ect kicked the pituty out of gold since 2000. As did some stodgy old companies that existed way before roadrunner was a twinkle in his daddys eye.
Gosh darn facts always gettin in the way of rhetoric. >>
You can only find 4 companies out of thousands? Talk about selective picking....lol. Just get over it already that gold and precious metals have kicked the butt out of the Dow, S&P, Russell, etc. over the past 15 years. It's a plain and simple fact. No argument is needed. And unless you personally held those 4 "selected" companies in your own portfolio for the past 10-15 years, you really don't have any business claiming what great performers they are or were. They might have been great for someone, just not for Cohodk.
Is this the same "tech savvy" Cohodk that dumped all over Google and Amazon in the past 3-10 years right here on the forum stating they were done, finished, kaput? Where was your "new fangled gizmo gadget" 5th sense back then? And if you dumped all over those 2 tech stocks, I can only imagine what you must have been saying about AAPL when it was struggling for many years. How about in 2007-2009 when it lost 60% of its share price? Were you buying it hand over fist then? Probably not. Recommending it here? Probably not. Can you show us a single thread where you recommend AAPL as a great 2 year hold? Picking out the "winners" years later is not much of a skill. But it seems to be one you have mastered. Keep on revising history and facts. That seems to suit you well. You recommended miners in early 2015. How has that worked out for you? We know you missed most or all of the 2001-2011 commodities and PM's boom....many 10 to 100 baggers in that run. Posting a chart of Microsoft isn't going to change that fact....unless you owned MSFT for most of that run.
BIIB had a 45% correction this year. Even gold can't do anything as crazy as that....lol. Do you still recommend BIIB? Where will it be in 2-3 years based on the current chart? Are you recommended this for clients? Sure, it's had a 10 bagger the past 5 years or so. That was the easy part. Now what? There is where you can strut your stuff. Everyone knows where things went from 2009-2015. What about the next 3-5 years? Tell us where your darlings will be (AAPL, NFLX, MNST, BIIB). Looks to me like MNST is shaping up to be the next "toasted" Green Mountain Coffee.
No, picking them at the beginning of the year is one way to track performance, for those who have chosen to participate in such threads. And there is also some commentary about markets in them.
One can also track previous years' picks to see how they have done since, to measure longer term performance.
The metals prices charts are easy to compare to any listed asset over time
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Since you think the stock market stinks so bad why is that if one had made equal dollar investments in gold and the sp500 in 1996 or 2008 (before it crashed), you would have the same amount of money. (Not counting dividends which gold does not pay so the return on stocks is actually higher). So if stocks stink so bad, surely you must admit gold stinks equally. Come on, there must be a 1000 word twisted fact rant you could write about this.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I'll break it down into pieces for you, and I'm sure you'll find ways to spin any comments. Don't we all? lol.
Inflation. The 1980's weren't known for inflation, nor were the 1990's. What are you referring to?
High Gov't spending. It's become worse by orders of magnitude.
Wars. We are getting involved in more locations than seems remotely prudent, and we have made just about all the wrong moves that we could possibly make in terms of immigration, rules of engagement, and military preparedness. The blowback is worse than ever before and the problems are larger by orders of magnitude.
Corruption. Starting with Graham, Leach, Bliley in 1999. Unlike the late 1980's there have been ZERO prosecutions flowing from the financial/banking/real estate crisis starting in 2008. Much, much worse since 2008, it's now thoroughly institutionalized at the highest levels in government.
Metals may or may not "do nothing" but I'll take them as something real and negotiable any day. Pick your own poison. You trust the banks and big gov, lol. I don't.
I knew it would happen.