A hot runner with 5 waves higher in 1-2 years. From all time high to all time low in 8 weeks. What's not to like?
That weekly candle "fat finger" dip 2 weeks ago indicated things were not quite right. So what were "people" bidding up all the way?
Never said the stock market stinks. What I have said all along is that gold has outperformed it all along from 2000-2015. If that's great and stupendous, how can a "pet rock" that just sits there do better? Like anything else, the stock market does stink for 10-15 years at a time. It just hasn't been in that mode for the past 6-1/2 years. Buy high (today). Why pick 2000? That's an obvious turning point in numerous markets. An 18 year stock market bull and a 20 year PM bear. Y2K and then 9-11-2001 makes the 2000-2001 period an interesting and important starting point for many comparisons. If the stock market is that infallible, why can't it hold up to any 15-20 year period we choose to look at? 15-20 yrs tends to represent a generation, 2 or 3 business cycles, and typically a commodity cycle length. All good reasons to look at such a time period.
Don't worry, sometime in the next 5-10 years when the stock market returns to the 2000 highs, we won't have to worry about these discussions on how well the stock market did from 2000-2015.
You still think that JPM's $4 TRILL/17X addition in otc commodity derivatives is "nothing?" Just a bunch of "old school" commodity producers pooling their meager funds together and having JPM make market hedges for them?
RR, not like many people owned Tetraphase, but I owned a pretty big position in TTPH and sold about 2/3rds, over the last year and a half, but I still own enough that it stung, no doubt. I started buying it in 2013 it traded at @ $7 for most of 2013 and my cost is very close to where it is trading after it, to coin a phrase from SCTV and John Candy, "Blowed up real good" believe it or not , overall, I still did make some good money on it, but I'm not adding on the dip yet, their gram negative antibiotic "may" some other uses and they have $5-6 of cash, but it's a big blow to the company and when a stock gets crushed that bad, few institutions want to show it in the quarterly holdings so there will be selling pressure for a while imo.
Such is the life of smallcap biotech investing with drugs and clinical trials, No conspiracy, no one to blame, own it... the blow ups will come as sure as the sun comes up, there's no crying in baseball. Although I'm sure my wife noticed a little snivel when I read the 8-k ;~ Overtime I've had many hit's to my holdings, this won't be the last.
But it is a market of stocks not a stock market and I have some that are still way up some that are down and others treading water. Overall still up on the year, even with the volatility. That's the primary difference, between a commodity and individual stocks..a commodity trades in one direction a portfolio of stocks will typically trade all over the place and I still have a little shiny metal in my hold, but it's just a piece like everything else.
Roadrunner is just looking for company to share his misery over years and dollars lost.
He still hasn't acknowledged that equal dollars invested in gold or the stock market (as measured by the sp500 without including dividends) over the last 20 years habe the same return. Yet, he will boast the virtues of gold and evil of equities.
Did I say "no inflation"? No, I said that the '80s and '90s weren't known for inflation. Do you know why? As I reviewed the inflation rates, it looks amazingly like inflation peaked in 1980 and tapered off gradually for the next 20 years.
I'm beginning to wonder why you are twisting what people say.
You may want to revisit debt growth rates and the term "orders of magnitude"
Ask derryb for the chart. He has it for ya.
Wars where we shouldn't be? Seems we are in the same places as 20-30 years ago. Iran, Iraq, cold war with Russia.
Clearly you think that where we are right now is "manageable". I'm not so complacent.
Corruption....you remember S&Ls?
Google Bill Black. Prof at UMKC. He helped prosecute 1,000s. Nobody got prosecuted this last time around. Why would that be? The corruption runs much much deeper now. I know that you don't get it. I don't expect you to get it.
Two that got away were McCain and Neil Bush. This time, they all got away except Madoff and Peregrine Financial's CEO. Corzine and Milken are heroes to too many people. What are your thoughts about those fellas? Great guys?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Tetraphase was just the flavor of the week. It's been the norm the past 2 months for individual stocks to get rocked. Just perusing through the top 50 or so NYSE large caps shows a LOT of lousy looking charts. Maybe the FED & PPT will do another "invisible" QE injection to get them up near previous highs one more time. Who knows? That August fat fingered dip across the stock market was a warning shot across the bow. Cohodk has always loved the longer term stochs. So here are some charts of the Dow and S&P showing them in 5 yr weekly format. Those LT stochs have fallen out of bed from the locked-in/overbought range. I'm quite surprised that nowhere around here has he posted anything about this. Maybe because that this might conflict with his currently bullish 2000-2015 stock analysis.
I mentioned the expanding wedges in the Dow and S&P from 1998-2015 a number of times in the past year (a much bigger version of the one from 1966-1973). And then we get the "little" expanding wedges in the second half of 2014 (July-Oct)....often seen as ending patterns. The commodity sector and currency pairs have had those popping up all over the place for the past 3-10 years. Stacking wedges like this is often an early warning. The bottom of the Dow wedge in Oct 2014 was exceeded during the August dip. That sets another stone in motion. The S&P just missed taking out that Oct 2014 by a hair. Those little wedges point towards realistic projections despite their depth. The FED & PPT will not take this laying down. They will toss everything at the markets to keep them above these levels, maybe even force all time highs one more time. I put nothing past them. But the die is cast.
The 2000 high (Dow 11,722) will be back tested....or essentially wiping out all the gains from 2000-2015. Through June-Sept 2016, that wedge projection (currently at 13,500) will eventually fall to 12,000. No clue when it gets to a projection from 12K to 13.5K. Could be after 2016. Just that it should get there. It will take a lot of other stuff down with it....maybe even more of the PM sector. But, that's a different discussion for another day. The GSR and USDX will give some clues as to whether PMs follow or diverge. But, for now, those are still keeping things a secret. The recent 16% crush in the Dow is eerily similar in size to gold's first 20% plunge in late Sept 2011. But fiateers will claim that gold was in bubble land while the Dow has just been leisurely rising. That's one big difference in how each of those markets top. One is usually a parabolic blow off while the other is a slow, boring, exhaustion. Individual sectors like Biotechs more closely resemble commodity booms.
So i guess roadrunner if a stock market bug keeps touting stocks and they perform as you suggest over the next few years, he will be just as good as a PM bug?
RR, Just to get back briefly to TTPH, good bad or indifferent, the Fed, QE, derivatives or accounting standards had nothing to do with Tetraphase being "blowed up good" or not..missing their primary endpoint in a phase 3 trial did.
<< <i>RR, Just to get back briefly to TTPH, good bad or indifferent, the Fed, QE, derivatives or accounting standards had nothing to do with Tetraphase being "blowed up good" or not..missing their primary endpoint in a phase 3 trial did. >>
TTPH, even at this price, has a positive return over the last 2 years....does gold?
<< <i>RR, Just to get back briefly to TTPH, good bad or indifferent, the Fed, QE, derivatives or accounting standards had nothing to do with Tetraphase being "blowed up good" or not..missing their primary endpoint in a phase 3 trial did. >>
TTPH, even at this price, has a positive return over the last 2 years....does gold? >>
Gold has not performed as well as I have with it, over the last 2 years. Then again, buying and selling gold is a niche in itself and not an entity unto itself.
<< <i>I think im known around these parts to put everything in context, perspective and relativity. >>
Really? What "parts" do you mean. Baleyville? I think it's time for a poll....lol.
I sure don't see your comparison of gold vs. TTPH over the past 2 years as any sort of "context" and "relativity" whatsover. How many TTPH investors just got totally wiped out? It just lost 96.7% from its 2014 IPO. And the best you can come up with is that it out-performed gold over 2 years? Mr. Relativity strikes again...lol. I think you've just nailed your new forum "title." Mr. Revisionist Relativity. I just hope people don't confuse it with the other RR.
<< <i>I think im known around these parts to put everything in context, perspective and relativity. >>
Really? What "parts" do you mean. Baleyville? I think it's time for a poll....lol.
I sure don't see your comparison of gold vs. TTPH over the past 2 years as any sort of "context" and "relativity" whatsover. How many TTPH investors just got totally wiped out? It just lost 96.7% from its 2014 IPO. And the best you can come up with is that it out-performed gold over 2 years? Mr. Relativity strikes again...lol. I think you've just nailed your new forum "title." Mr. Revisionist Relativity. I just hope people don't confuse it with the other RR.
Again, I need to correct you on facts. TTPH went public at $7/ share. It is still higher than the ipo price, not down 96% as you say. And it has still outperformed gold over the last 2 years.
<< <i>Again, I need to correct you on facts. TTPH went public at $7/ share. It is still higher than the ipo price, not down 96% as you say. And it has still outperformed gold over the last 2 years.
You call me Mr Revisionist, I call you out. >>
No need to correct my facts. TTPH has lost 96.7% (of its gains) from its IPO. Clearly, what I said was not incorrect. There are many ways to interpret "facts." And not once did I say that TTPH didn't outperform gold since its IPO. Give TTPH some more time. I don't know what other "holes in the ground" it is bringing to market. It's chart is a disaster with the initial impulse waved now almost fully overlapped. Volume has been declining on TTPH since December as smart/inside money left town. Would not be surprised if this went WAY below the IPO offering....just like Aliblaba. There's enough room on this forum for two RR's.
The more pertinent question today is what what would you rather have for $10K? Only one choice allowed. 1. S&P ETF 2. TTPH 3. Gold AGE's. 4. USTreasuries/Dollars. It would take some kahunas to pick TTPH, even here. Things almost always bounce back from severe hits. But this wasn't a 20, 30, 50, 61.8%, or 78.6% hit, it was 84% off the peak, in less than 2 months. It lost 79% in less than a day. Can anyone show examples of stock bounce backs to "normal health" after such hits? Let's revisit TTPH vs. gold in 2 years on 9/11/2017. TTPH won round one to "lucky" investors who held on since the IPO and have now earned 21%. Is there such a person still in existence?
We do know one thing very clearly, and we should have learned it during the housing bubble – suppressed interest rates encourage yield-seeking speculation, enable low-quality creditors access to the capital markets, direct scarce savings toward unproductive malinvestment, subsidize leveraged carry-trades, and unleash a whole host of “structured” products “engineered” by financial institutions to directly or indirectly piggyback on the good faith and credit of Uncle Sam. ....John Hussman
Bloomberg of all places had Saxo Bank's chief economist on this morning who was basically saying that the past 7 years has incorrectly priced the cost of capital, stifled true growth, bifurcated the markets where the largest corporations are awarded political and financial favors, an environment where stock prices rose, bonds too, but few other investments did (ie TBTF crony capitalism). This is what myself and others have been saying for years.....fiateers argue that it's real growth because of all the whizbang, hi-tech gadgets we now have to monitor our lives from every angle and watch movies anywhere, anytime. Is Boomberg now becoming Booberg?....lol.
The more pertinent question today is what what would you rather have for $10K? Only one choice allowed. 1. S&P ETF 2. TTPH 3. Gold AGE's. 4. USTreasuries/Dollars.
Why is "only one choice allowed"? Why can't someone choose to put $2500 in each? Or pick their own mix? Why is it "pertinent" to have to choose only one thing??
an environment where stock prices rose, bonds too, but few other investments did
Lots of stocks and bonds went down. Lots of other investments, paper and "real" went up. Depending on how well the business did, does, or is expected to do, or depending on how much collector/investors wanted to bid up the asset. Real estate has done well, if chosen right. What about real estate or certified coins, for example, if bought at tops, if overpaid for, if lied to and cheated by sellers, if the location or type falls out of favor, or a large supply comes to market, if, in short, chosen wrong? Down.
Since RR appears intelligent enough to know all this, we can only conclude that he's only presenting the facts and spin that support his case that.. that... What is the case again RR?
That a lump of gold in a treasure chest is not a barbarous relic ?
Can anyone show examples of stock bounce backs to "normal health" after such hits?
The more pertinent question today is what what would you rather have for $10K? Only one choice allowed. 1. S&P ETF 2. TTPH 3. Gold AGE's. 4. USTreasuries/Dollars.
<< <i>The more pertinent question today is what what would you rather have for $10K? Only one choice allowed. 1. S&P ETF 2. TTPH 3. Gold AGE's. 4. USTreasuries/Dollars. >>
With the exception of TTPH as a choice, I believe this exact question was asked every year for the last half decade or so.
Gold will rise and fall like Rome. It will rise and fall like Babylon. It will rise and fall like Enron. It will rise and fall like the twin towers. Other assets pretty much do the same except at different times in the cycle. That's not a prediction. Just an observation.
Metals will continue to suffer deflationary fatigue unless a financial crisis or dollar event "suddenly" appears.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Checked Dilbert in the last couple of days? Here they are with more maybe coming tomorrow? Don't forget about Nostradogbert!
>>
Noticed the gold references in 2 consecutive comics. From Pet Rocks in the WSJ to Dilbert's Boss gold hoarding. More signs of bottoming sentiment in the media?
Are we down to calculating weekly performance to choose worthwhile assets? Don't get too excited about TTPH just yet. Yes, nice 54% bounce from the trough to peak over the previous 6 days. Huge volume towards end of Friday suggests a lot of selling. It's pretty rare when a company takes a monstrous fundamental hit like this and doesn't retest the lows or make new ones before a more lasting recovery.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Since the Pertinent Question, TTPH is up +44.3%.
Do we need to Compute the other one-week returns? >>
I think 2 week returns would be better....up 15% now. Easy come...easy go. Next week? Who knows. If the SM takes a big header at some point TTPH could fall off the cliff. Maybe TTPH is giving advance notice for BioTechs in general? That sector is already down around 20%....bouncing back from the earlier 30% dip.
Edited for end of the week close: gonna be up around +7% since the crash low. Biotechs and Healthcare getting whacked today.
Not really. Looks like a dead heat based on my original post of Sept 13th....(gold up 3.9% and TTPH approx 3.5%). Safety and liquidity of the asset is as much a concern. Do you bet your lunch on something that is down 80% the past month as well as down approx 30% the past 2 weeks? Comes down to your risk tolerance and how judge safety and liquidity.
Here's another biotech than ran into a negative EPA ruling back in July 2014. I remember a new blogger coming on to a trading site and recommending this. Their spiel was that their new drug had a 90% chance of EPA approval the following week. I asked them what if they don't get approval? They indicated it was almost a sure thing and for everyone to jump on board as it was headed to $18+. You can see what happened in late July...no approval. And over a year later still working on it. It had a nice bounce back to fill the original gap, then dropped to a fresh low. Looks like it still has one more move down into the mid to lower $2's before it might be done.
Yes. Mea culpa. But I won't correct it for fear of incurring the wrath of the "man on the Street".
Can't even give TTPH a gain now. Fresh lows now in. +53% on the bounce. -64% on the next dip. A great trading vehicle if one loves volatility and thinks this stock will eventually recover. Gold hit too today. Looks like its going to be under pressure heading into Friday's job's report....the usual stuff.
Comments
A hot runner with 5 waves higher in 1-2 years. From all time high to all time low in 8 weeks. What's not to like?
That weekly candle "fat finger" dip 2 weeks ago indicated things were not quite right. So what were "people" bidding up all the way?
Never said the stock market stinks. What I have said all along is that gold has outperformed it all along from 2000-2015. If that's great and stupendous, how can a "pet rock" that just sits there do better? Like anything else, the stock market does stink for 10-15 years at a time. It just hasn't been in that mode for the past 6-1/2 years. Buy high (today). Why pick 2000? That's an obvious turning point in numerous markets. An 18 year stock market bull and a 20 year PM bear. Y2K and then 9-11-2001 makes the 2000-2001 period an interesting and important starting point for many comparisons. If the stock market is that infallible, why can't it hold up to any 15-20 year period we choose to look at? 15-20 yrs tends to represent a generation, 2 or 3 business cycles, and typically a commodity cycle length. All good reasons to look at such a time period.
Don't worry, sometime in the next 5-10 years when the stock market returns to the 2000 highs, we won't have to worry about these discussions on how well the stock market did from 2000-2015.
You still think that JPM's $4 TRILL/17X addition in otc commodity derivatives is "nothing?" Just a bunch of "old school" commodity producers pooling their meager funds together and having JPM make market hedges for them?
Such is the life of smallcap biotech investing with drugs and clinical trials, No conspiracy, no one to blame, own it... the blow ups will come as sure as the sun comes up, there's no crying in baseball. Although I'm sure my wife noticed a little snivel when I read the 8-k ;~ Overtime I've had many hit's to my holdings, this won't be the last.
But it is a market of stocks not a stock market and I have some that are still way up some that are down and others treading water. Overall still up on the year, even with the volatility. That's the primary difference, between a commodity and individual stocks..a commodity trades in one direction a portfolio of stocks will typically trade all over the place and I still have a little shiny metal in my hold, but it's just a piece like everything else.
He still hasn't acknowledged that equal dollars invested in gold or the stock market (as measured by the sp500 without including dividends) over the last 20 years habe the same return. Yet, he will boast the virtues of gold and evil of equities.
Kinda makes one wonder...
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
What is bigger 4x or 5x. You may want to revisit debt growth rates and the term "orders of magnitude"
Wars where we shouldn't be? Seems we are in the same places as 20-30 years ago. Iran, Iraq, cold war with Russia.
Corruption....you remember S&Ls?
I'm not spinning anything. It's all fact, and you can check it yourself.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Did I say "no inflation"? No, I said that the '80s and '90s weren't known for inflation. Do you know why? As I reviewed the inflation rates, it looks amazingly like inflation peaked in 1980 and tapered off gradually for the next 20 years.
I'm beginning to wonder why you are twisting what people say.
You may want to revisit debt growth rates and the term "orders of magnitude"
Ask derryb for the chart. He has it for ya.
Wars where we shouldn't be? Seems we are in the same places as 20-30 years ago. Iran, Iraq, cold war with Russia.
Clearly you think that where we are right now is "manageable". I'm not so complacent.
Corruption....you remember S&Ls?
Google Bill Black. Prof at UMKC. He helped prosecute 1,000s. Nobody got prosecuted this last time around. Why would that be? The corruption runs much much deeper now. I know that you don't get it. I don't expect you to get it.
Two that got away were McCain and Neil Bush. This time, they all got away except Madoff and Peregrine Financial's CEO. Corzine and Milken are heroes to too many people. What are your thoughts about those fellas? Great guys?
I knew it would happen.
Tetraphase was just the flavor of the week. It's been the norm the past 2 months for individual stocks to get rocked. Just perusing through the top 50 or so NYSE large caps shows a LOT of lousy looking charts. Maybe the FED & PPT will do another "invisible" QE injection to get them up near previous highs one more time. Who knows? That August fat fingered dip across the stock market was a warning shot across the bow. Cohodk has always loved the longer term stochs. So here are some charts of the Dow and S&P showing them in 5 yr weekly format. Those LT stochs have fallen out of bed from the locked-in/overbought range. I'm quite surprised that nowhere around here has he posted anything about this. Maybe because that this might conflict with his currently bullish 2000-2015 stock analysis.
I mentioned the expanding wedges in the Dow and S&P from 1998-2015 a number of times in the past year (a much bigger version of the one from 1966-1973). And then we get the "little" expanding wedges in the second half of 2014 (July-Oct)....often seen as ending patterns. The commodity sector and currency pairs have had those popping up all over the place for the past 3-10 years. Stacking wedges like this is often an early warning. The bottom of the Dow wedge in Oct 2014 was exceeded during the August dip. That sets another stone in motion. The S&P just missed taking out that Oct 2014 by a hair. Those little wedges point towards realistic projections despite their depth. The FED & PPT will not take this laying down. They will toss everything at the markets to keep them above these levels, maybe even force all time highs one more time. I put nothing past them. But the die is cast.
The 2000 high (Dow 11,722) will be back tested....or essentially wiping out all the gains from 2000-2015. Through June-Sept 2016, that wedge projection (currently at 13,500) will eventually fall to 12,000. No clue when it gets to a projection from 12K to 13.5K. Could be after 2016. Just that it should get there. It will take a lot of other stuff down with it....maybe even more of the PM sector. But, that's a different discussion for another day. The GSR and USDX will give some clues as to whether PMs follow or diverge. But, for now, those are still keeping things a secret. The recent 16% crush in the Dow is eerily similar in size to gold's first 20% plunge in late Sept 2011. But fiateers will claim that gold was in bubble land while the Dow has just been leisurely rising. That's one big difference in how each of those markets top. One is usually a parabolic blow off while the other is a slow, boring, exhaustion. Individual sectors like Biotechs more closely resemble commodity booms.
Dow long term weekly stochs...Dow to <13,500.
SPY stochs....S&P to <1400 or a retest of 2012 support/resistance.
The reality is that every place is risky when it's your cash being put up…, especially in one's pocket. It's performance is evident.
US debt increased 5 fold in the 80-90s vs 4 fold in the 2000s. That certainly is not an orders of magnitude increase.
I'm just calling out your hyperbole. Your message might just be better received.
Watch how Trumps bombastic hyperbole renders him impotent.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
In the proper context of debt to GDP, it's pretty awful. Do you ever put things into context?
I knew it would happen.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>RR, Just to get back briefly to TTPH, good bad or indifferent, the Fed, QE, derivatives or accounting standards had nothing to do with Tetraphase being "blowed up good" or not..missing their primary endpoint in a phase 3 trial did. >>
TTPH, even at this price, has a positive return over the last 2 years....does gold?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
How about the biotech stock (starts with V) that went UP 89% on the same day?
I wasn't in either one of those two, but did notice both (after the moves)
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>I think im known around these parts to put everything in context, perspective and relativity >>
No really
<< <i>
<< <i>RR, Just to get back briefly to TTPH, good bad or indifferent, the Fed, QE, derivatives or accounting standards had nothing to do with Tetraphase being "blowed up good" or not..missing their primary endpoint in a phase 3 trial did. >>
TTPH, even at this price, has a positive return over the last 2 years....does gold? >>
Gold has not performed as well as I have with it, over the last 2 years. Then again, buying and selling gold is a niche in itself and not an entity unto itself.
<< <i>I think im known around these parts to put everything in context, perspective and relativity. >>
Really? What "parts" do you mean. Baleyville? I think it's time for a poll....lol.
I sure don't see your comparison of gold vs. TTPH over the past 2 years as any sort of "context" and "relativity" whatsover. How many TTPH investors just got totally wiped out? It just lost 96.7% from its 2014 IPO. And the best you can come up with is that it out-performed gold over 2 years? Mr. Relativity strikes again...lol. I think you've just nailed your new forum "title." Mr. Revisionist Relativity. I just hope people don't confuse it with the other RR.
TTPH
<< <i>
<< <i>I think im known around these parts to put everything in context, perspective and relativity. >>
Really? What "parts" do you mean. Baleyville? I think it's time for a poll....lol.
I sure don't see your comparison of gold vs. TTPH over the past 2 years as any sort of "context" and "relativity" whatsover. How many TTPH investors just got totally wiped out? It just lost 96.7% from its 2014 IPO. And the best you can come up with is that it out-performed gold over 2 years? Mr. Relativity strikes again...lol. I think you've just nailed your new forum "title." Mr. Revisionist Relativity. I just hope people don't confuse it with the other RR.
TTPH >>
Again, I need to correct you on facts. TTPH went public at $7/ share. It is still higher than the ipo price, not down 96% as you say. And it has still outperformed gold over the last 2 years.
You call me Mr Revisionist, I call you out.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Again, I need to correct you on facts. TTPH went public at $7/ share. It is still higher than the ipo price, not down 96% as you say. And it has still outperformed gold over the last 2 years.
You call me Mr Revisionist, I call you out.
No need to correct my facts. TTPH has lost 96.7% (of its gains) from its IPO. Clearly, what I said was not incorrect. There are many ways to interpret "facts." And not once did I say that TTPH didn't outperform gold since its IPO. Give TTPH some more time. I don't know what other "holes in the ground" it is bringing to market. It's chart is a disaster with the initial impulse waved now almost fully overlapped. Volume has been declining on TTPH since December as smart/inside money left town. Would not be surprised if this went WAY below the IPO offering....just like Aliblaba. There's enough room on this forum for two RR's.
The more pertinent question today is what what would you rather have for $10K? Only one choice allowed. 1. S&P ETF 2. TTPH 3. Gold AGE's. 4. USTreasuries/Dollars. It would take some kahunas to pick TTPH, even here. Things almost always bounce back from severe hits. But this wasn't a 20, 30, 50, 61.8%, or 78.6% hit, it was 84% off the peak, in less than 2 months. It lost 79% in less than a day. Can anyone show examples of stock bounce backs to "normal health" after such hits? Let's revisit TTPH vs. gold in 2 years on 9/11/2017. TTPH won round one to "lucky" investors who held on since the IPO and have now earned 21%. Is there such a person still in existence?
We do know one thing very clearly, and we should have learned it during the housing bubble – suppressed interest rates encourage yield-seeking speculation, enable low-quality creditors access to the capital markets, direct scarce savings toward unproductive malinvestment, subsidize leveraged carry-trades, and unleash a whole host of “structured” products “engineered” by financial institutions to directly or indirectly piggyback on the good faith and credit of Uncle Sam. ....John Hussman
Why is "only one choice allowed"? Why can't someone choose to put $2500 in each? Or pick their own mix? Why is it "pertinent" to have to choose only one thing??
an environment where stock prices rose, bonds too, but few other investments did
Lots of stocks and bonds went down. Lots of other investments, paper and "real" went up. Depending on how well the business did, does, or is expected to do, or depending on how much collector/investors wanted to bid up the asset. Real estate has done well, if chosen right. What about real estate or certified coins, for example, if bought at tops, if overpaid for, if lied to and cheated by sellers, if the location or type falls out of favor, or a large supply comes to market, if, in short, chosen wrong? Down.
Since RR appears intelligent enough to know all this, we can only conclude that he's only presenting the facts and spin that support his case that.. that... What is the case again RR?
That a lump of gold in a treasure chest is not a barbarous relic ?
Can anyone show examples of stock bounce backs to "normal health" after such hits?
Sure, could do it all day long. Won't, but could
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Ha, I think I'll vote, $ TTPH married with puts
<< <i>The more pertinent question today is what what would you rather have for $10K? Only one choice allowed. 1. S&P ETF 2. TTPH 3. Gold AGE's. 4. USTreasuries/Dollars. >>
With the exception of TTPH as a choice, I believe this exact question was asked every year for the last half decade or so.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Other assets pretty much do the same except at different times in the cycle. That's not a prediction. Just an observation.
Not to late to buy the NUGT. 😀
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Not to late to buy the NUGT. 😀
It will fluctuate.
I knew it would happen.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Do we need to Compute the other one-week returns?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Checked Dilbert in the last couple of days? Here they are with more maybe coming tomorrow? Don't forget about Nostradogbert!
Noticed the gold references in 2 consecutive comics. From Pet Rocks in the WSJ to Dilbert's Boss gold hoarding. More signs of bottoming sentiment in the media?
Are we down to calculating weekly performance to choose worthwhile assets? Don't get too excited about TTPH just yet. Yes, nice 54% bounce from the trough to peak over the previous 6 days. Huge volume towards end of Friday suggests a lot of selling. It's pretty rare when a company takes a monstrous fundamental hit like this and doesn't retest the lows or make new ones before a more lasting recovery.
It also doesn't pay salaries or healthcare benefits and doesn't worry too much if the president gets caught in the coat closet with an intern.
It is what it is.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Gold doesn't pay dividends or interest. >>
It's term insurance, not whole life.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Since the Pertinent Question, TTPH is up +44.3%.
Do we need to Compute the other one-week returns? >>
I think 2 week returns would be better....up 15% now. Easy come...easy go. Next week? Who knows. If the SM takes a big header at some point TTPH could fall off the cliff. Maybe TTPH is giving advance notice for BioTechs in general? That sector is already down around 20%....bouncing back from the earlier 30% dip.
Edited for end of the week close: gonna be up around +7% since the crash low. Biotechs and Healthcare getting whacked today.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Does TTPH still beat the other options? >>
Not really. Looks like a dead heat based on my original post of Sept 13th....(gold up 3.9% and TTPH approx 3.5%). Safety and liquidity of the asset is as much a concern. Do you bet your lunch on something that is down 80% the past month as well as down approx 30% the past 2 weeks? Comes down to your risk tolerance and how judge safety and liquidity.
ACRX
Here's another biotech than ran into a negative EPA ruling back in July 2014. I remember a new blogger coming on to a trading site and recommending this. Their spiel was that their new drug had a 90% chance of EPA approval the following week. I asked them what if they don't get approval? They indicated it was almost a sure thing and for everyone to jump on board as it was headed to $18+. You can see what happened in late July...no approval. And over a year later still working on it. It had a nice bounce back to fill the original gap, then dropped to a fresh low. Looks like it still has one more move down into the mid to lower $2's before it might be done.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Do you mean FDA? >>
Yes. Mea culpa. But I won't correct it for fear of incurring the wrath of the "man on the Street".
Can't even give TTPH a gain now. Fresh lows now in. +53% on the bounce. -64% on the next dip. A great trading vehicle if one loves volatility and thinks this stock will eventually recover. Gold hit too today. Looks like its going to be under pressure heading into Friday's job's report....the usual stuff.