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My theory on the cause of the Narrow Reeding found on some 2015 1/10th oz. gold eagles CONFIRMED!

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    7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭


    << <i>They used a $5 gold buffalo collar die on a run of $5 gold eagles >>



    Assuming again. The USM has stated they released several thousand of each type.

    In the other cases.....they came right out and stated they made the error. Not this time.

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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,217 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>They used a $5 gold buffalo collar die on a run of $5 gold eagles >>



    Assuming again. The USM has stated they released several thousand of each type.

    In the other cases.....they came right out and stated they made the error. Not this time. >>


    Per the mint: "Reeding collars are considered standard tooling," Stump responded vie email. "Multiple collars were used to produce the 2015 tenth-ounce gold Eagles. The U.S. Mint does not consider the coin an error, just a variant. There were several thousand of the variant produced."

    Multiple collars are used for all mass production reeded coins. When a die wears out during production a new one is grabbed off the shelf. They grabbed one that was different from any of the ones they have been using since 1986, probably knowing it was a gold buffalo die, but not realizing it had narrower reeds. Just like in 1999, maybe they were swamped and ran out of the staged AGE dies and made an emergency decision to use something they thought would "look" the same. The mint is saying (for now) in their statement that all $5 gold collar dies are considered the same. The first sentence by their PR guy is the giveaway.

    The mint never acknowledged the 1999 W uncirc to be an error but we now know a wrong die was selected for what appears to be one press run. The mint admitted that it released 47,000 Uncirculated 2008-W American Eagle silver coins struck with the older reverse dies which was being replaced with a slightly changed reverse that year. The fact that an 07 ASE reverse die was even available after preparing and staging the new 08 die tells us that the mint keeps older dies (2008W $5 gold buffalo?) dies on hand.

    Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt

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    CaptHenwayCaptHenway Posts: 31,566 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>They used a $5 gold buffalo collar die on a run of $5 gold eagles >>



    Assuming again. The USM has stated they released several thousand of each type.

    In the other cases.....they came right out and stated they made the error. Not this time. >>



    Original quote:

    "Most likely they used a 2008 (only year) $5 gold buffalo collar die on a run of $5 gold eagles."

    Notice the "Most likely" part.

    Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
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    RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,784 ✭✭✭✭✭
    He says " several thousand of the variant were produced." Note he said the variant, not of each variant - the variant being the narrow reed.

    What is the current total mintage of the $5 AGE?

    I can't find this quickly now however I believe that several thousand would make the variant relatively rare.
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
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    7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Multiple collars were used to produce the 2015 tenth-ounce gold Eagles. The U.S. Mint does not consider the coin an error, just a variant. There were several thousand of the variant produced >>





    << <i>When a die wears out during production a new one is grabbed off the shelf. The grabbed one that was different from any of the ones they have been using since 1986, probably knowing it was a gold buffalo die, but not realizing it had narrower reeds >>



    So you are aware they dont have any NEW collars made with narrow reeds?

    Again, all assumptions.

    But regardless of how they obtained or when the narrow reed collar was made, it doesnt matter. The USM has stated that they were not made in ERROR, just a variety. With SEVERAL THOUSAND narrow reeds out there, I would say they are hardly worth the 3x-4x or more premium.

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    7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭


    << <i>What is the current total mintage of the $5 AGE? >>



    40,000
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    brendanlambrendanlam Posts: 662 ✭✭✭
    I dunno how rare this narrow coin is, I will sell mine on eBay and keep free one for my collection.
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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,217 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>So you are aware they don't have any NEW collars made with narrow reeds? >>


    They did not acknowledge a die design change for the year as they did with the 2008 ASE reverse die.



    << <i>The USM has stated that they were not made in ERROR, just a variety. With SEVERAL THOUSAND narrow reeds out there, I would say they are hardly worth the 3x-4x or more premium. >>


    The 99 W AGE uncirc and the reverse of 07 ASE are not considered by the mint to be errors either. However, we know that an error in the production process occurred in both cases. This is no different and a low pop will prove so, even if they used the wrong collar die on a couple of press runs, considering the vast quantity of bullion AGEs that get produced each year. Mintage of several thousand "narrow reeds" is small considering there are an estimated 6,000 1999 W uncir $5 (and also 6K $10) AGEs and an estimated 47,000 reverse of 2007 ASEs.

    Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt

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    RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,784 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>What is the current total mintage of the $5 AGE? >>



    40,000 >>



    Thanks very much for the info.

    40k and its just Feb.

    I'm of the sell one keep one strategy as well.

    It will be interesting to see how the final numbers turn out.
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,217 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>What is the current total mintage of the $5 AGE? >>



    40,000 >>


    That's so far this year. 565K were sold last year. Heavy demand such as for the 1999 AGE during the 2YK scare and the 2008 ASE during the financial crisis, proves to create mistakes in the US Mint pressroom. For now the mint is calling this mistake a variant. Who knows, maybe someone there has a job on the line. Call it what you will, a mistake is a mistake and the eventual low pop, and a complete return to the wide reeding will prove this.

    Also note to this day that the debate continues over whether the 1999 W is an "error" or not. I for one consider a mistake on coinage to be an error.

    Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt

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    RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,784 ✭✭✭✭✭
    It looks like the 2013 and 2014 $5 business strike AGEs had mintages well over 500k.

    If only several thousand narrow reeds are minted and the final $5 2015 mintage is around 500k these could do well.

    (Sorry, redundant info from Derryb's post. Looks like I was writing while he was posting.)
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,217 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>This is great...

    $10K RARE First five serial numbers!!!

    It looks like this seller does not understand what the "001 - 005" on his certs actually means.

    He did get 5/5 70s on the first five coins in his submission though. Lucked out on that. >>


    Communicated with the seller, he was quick to fix his mistake and he appreciated the education. Hoping to hear more from him on his story with these.

    Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt

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    RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,784 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>This is great...

    $10K RARE First five serial numbers!!!

    It looks like this seller does not understand what the "001 - 005" on his certs actually means.

    He did get 5/5 70s on the first five coins in his submission though. Lucked out on that. >>


    Communicated with the seller, he was quick to fix his mistake and he appreciated the education. Hoping to hear more from him on his story with these. >>



    Seemed like an honest mistake. I was thinking that I should tell him but, since I had one listed, didn't want him to think that I was just trying to bash his auction. I'm glad that u contacted him. You may well have spared him some grief.

    It looks like he had a good number of these. He's already sold several at s nice profit.

    If u get any more info on these please let us know. This is an interesting story.
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
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    7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    On a mintage projection of 500K plus, a few thousand of these would be good for prices....

    However, it depends if collectors really embrace the variant as a coin they need for their sets.

    IMO, the reeding scenario doesn't excite me. A mintmark addition or deletion, an incorrect pairing of obverse/reverse, these are exciting errors.

    Not reeding. Just my opinion.
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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,217 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>On a mintage projection of 500K plus, a few thousand of these would be good for prices....

    However, it depends if collectors really embrace the variant as a coin they need for their sets.

    IMO, the reeding scenario doesn't excite me. A mintmark addition or deletion, an incorrect pairing of obverse/reverse, these are exciting errors.

    Not reeding. Just my opinion. >>


    I agree, not as exciting. Won't be adding one to my collection either, but suspect it to be sought after by many collectors. As I posted earlier I believe prices could eventually mirror the $5 1999 W. Will boil down to a pop that stays below 8-10K.

    Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt

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    CaptHenwayCaptHenway Posts: 31,566 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Just remember that if the Mint says it is not significant, they could deliberately make another 100,000 or so just to prove that the variant is not significant.
    Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
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    RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,784 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Will be interesting to see how this plays out.
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
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    RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,784 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I sold an NGC 70 ER on Ebay pretty quickly today for $825.

    Another seller got $895 shortly before mine sold.

    Looks like the demand is there for now.
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
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    TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 43,861 ✭✭✭✭✭
    This helps my reeding comprehension but not my bottom line.
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    RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,784 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>This helps my reeding comprehension but not my bottom line. >>



    LOL
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
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    brendanlambrendanlam Posts: 662 ✭✭✭
    Still waiting for my coins from MCM, hope they don't cancel my order.
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    RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,784 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Still waiting for my coins from MCM, hope they don't cancel my order. >>



    I've never known MCM to cancel a confirmed order. They are just excellent whether buying or selling - one of THE BEST in the business.
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,217 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Still waiting for my coins from MCM, hope they don't cancel my order. >>


    They may have oversold the first batch and are awaiting the next batch.

    Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt

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    RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,784 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Back at MCM. $899 PCGS MS70FS. Limit 2.

    A lot of 70s for a business strike.
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
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    brendanlambrendanlam Posts: 662 ✭✭✭
    Currently PCGS show pop 154 70s, and NGC pops 696 70s. Probably a lot more to come.
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    dpooledpoole Posts: 5,940 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>On a mintage projection of 500K plus, a few thousand of these would be good for prices....

    However, it depends if collectors really embrace the variant as a coin they need for their sets.

    IMO, the reeding scenario doesn't excite me. A mintmark addition or deletion, an incorrect pairing of obverse/reverse, these are exciting errors.

    Not reeding. Just my opinion. >>




    There's just not much aberration in this modern series. IMHO, that makes variants such as this relatively exciting for those of us who collect them.
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    CaptHenwayCaptHenway Posts: 31,566 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Back at MCM. $899 PCGS MS70FS. Limit 2.

    A lot of 70s for a business strike. >>



    I know a dealer who ordered three tubes of 1/10th Eagles for his regular stock, noticed the edges and sent all three rolls in to be slabbed. So, not a lot of handling on these.

    However, after he slabbed them he took $170 per from the place he blew them off to!
    Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
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    RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,784 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Did he get any narrow reeds?
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
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    7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    MCM is not leaving any fat on the bone for the collector
    Waaaaaaaaay overpriced
    Shouldn't be more than 600-650 on a pcgs 70 MAX
    That's why thier limited quantity is still there hours later
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    brendanlambrendanlam Posts: 662 ✭✭✭
    I saw GC has a set Wide and Narrow reeds for $900 yesterday.
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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,217 ✭✭✭✭✭
    gonna be real funny if we find out the narrow reed die is a change for 2015 and only a few thousand coins got the wide reeds.

    Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt

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    brendanlambrendanlam Posts: 662 ✭✭✭


    << <i>MCM is not leaving any fat on the bone for the collector
    Waaaaaaaaay overpriced
    Shouldn't be more than 600-650 on a pcgs 70 MAX
    That's why thier limited quantity is still there hours later >>



    Based on what the posted on Facebook, the reason they come up with price because ebay current bid is over $1000.
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    CaptHenwayCaptHenway Posts: 31,566 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Did he get any narrow reeds? >>



    They were all Narrow Reeds. The production obviously went out in solid rolls,
    Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
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    RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,784 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Wow. Nice score!
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
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    7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    i think there will be many disappointed buyers when the inflated price
    drops like a rock
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    RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,784 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>i think there will be many disappointed buyers when the inflated price
    drops like a rock >>



    May well be the case.

    This one will be very interesting to follow.

    Regardless of the long term, they are very strong now. MCM sold out at $900/coin in a few hours. Pretty impressive. Very strong Feebay sales as well.

    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
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    7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    I suppose MCM is using the "move them quick" strategy before the market collapses to reasonable levels for a variety with unknown mintage
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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,217 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I suppose MCM is using the "move them quick" strategy before the market collapses to reasonable levels for a variety with unknown mintage >>


    I suspect that is the strategy of all bullion dealers with all of their products.

    These will continue to be strong until further news is capable of weakening them. These are not gold Kennedys.

    Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt

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    7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    It's especially the strategy for bullion dealers who market a variety
    for 4x-7x bullion rate
    I'd say that's a home run for them
    Move the faaaassssssttttt
    I wasn't a buyer at 400, and it's laughable at 900
    If you got them---great----now sell them quick into the tulip market
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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,217 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>It's especially the strategy for bullion dealers who market a variety
    for 4x-7x bullion rate
    I'd say that's a home run for them
    Move the faaaassssssttttt
    I wasn't a buyer at 400, and it's laughable at 900
    If you got them---great----now sell them quick into the tulip market >>


    Many made that mistake with the 2008 W uncirc gold and with the UHR Eagle. I was one of them. These two examples demonstrated that it is not a quickly declining market when it comes to a hot item. I only make the comparison in term of "hotness," not in collectability or value. Sure, as always prices will settle, but not in the short term. Gold Kennedy's were never a hot item and quickly lost favor with those who thought they might become hot. Narrow reeds became hot the moment they were discovered.

    I do not hold any narrow reed eagles but if I did I would let the price keep climbing and then make its first indication of a turn before I dumped them. I don't see that being very soon.

    Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt

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    planetsteveplanetsteve Posts: 1,425 ✭✭✭✭
    So what are the chances of getting these at this time in any given order for $5 AGEs from any given bullion dealer?
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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,217 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>So what are the chances of getting these at this time in any given order for $5 AGEs from any given bullion dealer? >>


    You can bet they will be searched before they get shipped. Not many available at the moment. Don't know if the mint is holding them up to "cleanse" them or if dealers are holding them up to search them.

    Best chance was to already have received them before the discovery.

    Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt

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    HATTRICKHATTRICK Posts: 2,097 ✭✭✭✭✭
    IMO this is just another concocted, overhyped and overprice so called rarety that will go down in flames.

    Looking for any little excuse to say " Limited Edition " and charge more.
    " If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. " The 1st Law of Opposition from The Firesign Theater
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    planetsteveplanetsteve Posts: 1,425 ✭✭✭✭
    Thx Derry. I think this is an interesting error, about on the level of the 08/07 ASEs and certainly helped by the edge-view style of holders that are now the industry standard.
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    RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,784 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I bought two NGC 70ERs from MCM. Sold one for $825 and keeping one no matter how they do.

    It seems too early to tell how these will do in the long run. If the mintage of this popular coin is in the 500K range and only a few thousand are narrow reeds - the only one in the entire AGE series - I would think that they'll do well.

    It really seems that only time will tell.

    It's a cool variety which has started an interesting conversation.

    I have several '08 w/Rev of '07 ASEs which I very much like. That is a very popular coin despite that the error is initially hard to appreciate unless one is looking a photos of the two reverses and really studies he differences.

    Man were those good times for a lot of folks on the forum. That error made several on the forum life changing money.
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
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    brendanlambrendanlam Posts: 662 ✭✭✭
    I checked pcgs pop and only shown 70s, wondering what happen to 69 coins. And does anyone kno how often pcgs and ngc update their pops?
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    HATTRICKHATTRICK Posts: 2,097 ✭✭✭✭✭
    <I have several '08 w/Rev of '07 ASEs which I very much like. That is a very popular coin despite that the error is initially hard to appreciate unless one is looking a photos of the two reverses and really studies he differences.

    Man were those good times for a lot of folks on the forum. That error made several on the forum life changing money.>

    Raufus,

    How has the value of the '08 w/Rev of '07 ASEs held up?
    " If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. " The 1st Law of Opposition from The Firesign Theater
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    RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,784 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i><I have several '08 w/Rev of '07 ASEs which I very much like. That is a very popular coin despite that the error is initially hard to appreciate unless one is looking a photos of the two reverses and really studies he differences.

    Man were those good times for a lot of folks on the forum. That error made several on the forum life changing money.>

    Raufus,

    How has the value of the '08 w/Rev of '07 ASEs held up? >>



    $500 raw

    $1000 NGC MS70ER

    $3500 PCGS MS70FS!!!!

    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
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    HATTRICKHATTRICK Posts: 2,097 ✭✭✭✭✭
    would have been nice to get a monster box back then !!
    " If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. " The 1st Law of Opposition from The Firesign Theater
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    RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,784 ✭✭✭✭✭
    These were not the bullion/business strikes but the UNC's. Some people got 100 of them or more. I recall 70FS going for around $150 w/many available. One of my buddies had ordered 15 and was looking to sell for melt. I noted that they were all errors, took him to the Balto show and he sold them for $550 or so each raw. He gave me one for letting him know and I got a 70 on it.
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!

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