Feds caused the oil crash.....
bidask
Posts: 14,016 ✭✭✭✭✭
I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
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Comments
<< <i>We happily cede additional powers to an expanding central government when we falsely perceive advantage. >>
Yeah, and with the current price of oil and US ability to produce I say pull all the US troops outta the middle east. Who needs middle east oil. That's why US is there anyway.
Damn feds maybe caused a reason to do something right.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Keep Stacking
Tom
<< <i>paid 1.91 here in Ks to fill up today and you want to hear complaints?????????
Keep Stacking
Tom >>
10 4.....Shiff hasn't bee correct in his forecasts in years....
Like Tom, I'm happy to be paying less at the pump.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Keepin' the conspiracy alive!!! Way to go Pete!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
When the prices go back up I won't be expecting them to have a miracle fix for it either.
<< <i>And here I thought I was going to get some good solid factual logical rational information, but instead I got Peter Schiff.
Keepin' the conspiracy alive!!! Way to go Pete!! >>
He may wrong on the timing, but his macro views are not out of bounds.
I'm not seeing any "green shoots" on any of these broad-based indices:
Shiller P/E ratio
S&P 500 price - to - sales ratio
S&P 500 price - to -book value
S&P 500 earnings
They are all trending in the "wrong" direction, and the Fed money pump only helps in the obscuring of a rational (market timed) outlook.
<< <i>Supply and demand.... market forces at work...Cheers, RickO >>
Demand for crude oil dropped 40% in the last 6 months? Really?
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<< <i>Supply and demand.... market forces at work...Cheers, RickO >>
Demand for crude oil dropped 40% in the last 6 months? Really? >>
This is a case of demand not matching up to storage / transport capacity. Even a slight imbalance given the market size can cause dramatic price disparities.
Either pump double and drive the price lower or default or maybe both.
This is not supply and demand , its market manipulation. Nations like Saudi Arabia don't produce anything of value besides oil. If you only produce one thing and its a finite resource how can it be in your best interest to lower the unit price ?
This is an attack on a competitor to remove it or compromise it for future gains.
Saudi Arabia is Walmart and producers are all the little businesses in a small town that are soon to be ex-businesses.
Who is the target? is it US shale? Russia? maybe its Iran ?
Drivers here are benefiting for the time being but don't expect it to last
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<< <i>And here I thought I was going to get some good solid factual logical rational information, but instead I got Peter Schiff.
Keepin' the conspiracy alive!!! Way to go Pete!! >>
He may wrong on the timing, but his macro views are not out of bounds.
I'm not seeing any "green shoots" on any of these broad-based indices:
Shiller P/E ratio
S&P 500 price - to - sales ratio
S&P 500 price - to -book value
S&P 500 earnings
They are all trending in the "wrong" direction, and the Fed money pump only helps in the obscuring of a rational (market timed) outlook. >>
I read the charts much differently.
Lets look at the earnings chart first...it is at new highs. Thats exactly what we want. New highs in earnings is new highs in stock prices.
Book value....Not even close to being at extreme. Get it to 4-5x book and we have problems.
Sales...Maybe stock prices are rising faster than sales. A slight negative...not really a big deal unless prices were rising much faster than sales.
Shiller PE---Not really sure what this newly developed data point represents. Seems to be at a high, but not enough back data to compare it against. Ill call it neutral.
When trying to determine if stock prices are at extreme I want to see grossly stretched values vs book value, earnings and sales. I dont see any of that. Technically the market probably needs a little break, maybe even a 10-15% correction. That would not change the overall trajectory. Lets put that 10-15% drop into perspective. Suppose gold dropped from 1400-1200. Do we panic? Is that the end?
All in all, I think the above mentioned charts are pointing in the right direction. Sales are up, profits are up, earnings are up. That all translates into a market that should be up..and it is.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Demand for crude oil dropped 40% in the last 6 months? Really?
Depending on market dynamics, a small (eg - 5 %) drop in demand coupled with a small increase in supply (eg. 5 %) could lead to a very big (eg 40 %) drop in price. This is particularly true for a commodity like oil, where the marginal cost of pumping extra oil out of the ground can be well below the price, and many of the suppliers (eg Iran, Venezuela, and Russia) are deeply in need of cash, and others (eg. Saudi Arabia) have strong reasons to want to protect market share regardless of price.
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<< <i>Supply and demand.... market forces at work...Cheers, RickO >>
Demand for crude oil dropped 40% in the last 6 months? Really? >>
If supply/demand are at equilibrium, then any price is possible. However, add just one more unit to supply and the price can plummet. There is excess, no matter how small and that excess can usually lead to massive price declines as the owner of that unit needs to sell. Russia, Venezuela, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait...all need to sell. The same happens when demand exceeds supply. The owner of that extra unit can charge virtually any price as there is a willing buyer. And that price can be considerable higher especially if demand psychology is bullish.
NEVER equate a % drop/increase in price to a % drop/increase in demand.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The Saudi Royal Family is only too happy to pump extra barrels for our continued "protection", especially if it means putting the US Shale drillers and the Baaken fields out of business for awhile. So yes, the Feds are involved, as always.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i><< Supply and demand.... market forces at work...Cheers, RickO >>
Demand for crude oil dropped 40% in the last 6 months? Really?
Depending on market dynamics, a small (eg - 5 %) drop in demand coupled with a small increase in supply (eg. 5 %) could lead to a very big (eg 40 %) drop in price. This is particularly true for a commodity like oil, where the marginal cost of pumping extra oil out of the ground can be well below the price, and many of the suppliers (eg Iran, Venezuela, and Russia) are deeply in need of cash, and others (eg. Saudi Arabia) have strong reasons to want to protect market share regardless of price. >>
C'mon now, what you say doesn't have any of the hyperbole or panache of Peter's story.
As soon as I find a "blog" that supports his thesis, I'll copy and paste some of my more original thoughts
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Depending on market dynamics, a small (eg - 5 %) drop in demand coupled with a small increase in supply (eg. 5 %) could lead to a very big (eg 40 %) drop in price. This is particularly true for a commodity like oil, where the marginal cost of pumping extra oil out of the ground can be well below the price, and many of the suppliers (eg Iran, Venezuela, and Russia) are deeply in need of cash, and others (eg. Saudi Arabia) have strong reasons to want to protect market share by means of forcing a lower price. >>
fixed that for you
We keep trying to find someone or something to blame for bubble crashes, when in fact the cause and destruction of bubbles is ourselves.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Roadrunner, those were bubbles. All bubbles crash. It doesnt matter what the reasons---usually it is just a simple combination of changing investor psychology and unsustainable prices. Oil went up 10 fold in 7 years and silver up 5 fold in 5 years. They crashed just like any other bubble. Are we to blame the FED or derivatives for every other bubble in history?
We keep trying to find someone or something to blame for bubble crashes, when in fact the cause and destruction of bubbles is ourselves. >>
It still takes someone to pop the bubble at the "right" time. The stock market is in a bubble too. Who is currently holding the pin that will pop it?
My point is that those shifts in the oil and silver markets were quite unnatural, especially in such a short period of time. I don't begrudge the govt or the bullion banks for messing in the system if they are allowed to do so. It's just one of the stumbling blocks you have to be aware of when trading in them. The oil "bubble" that rose from $33 could have been stopped by the govt at $100 or $125 for example. They chose to wait for nearly $150 before applying maximum force. Why did they even enter the market to begin with? Call them bubbles if you will, it's still the same old games. All bubbles crash, some sooner than others depending on the applied help. My other point, let them rise and fall without the leveraged artificial help of the FED, HFT's, PPT, bullion banks, London Gold Pool, Strong Dollar - Weak Gold Policy, etc.
So you're saying oil at $80 was in a bubble and needed to be brought back to $53 by real supply and demand forces? So where's the "help" needed to bring the S&P500 back to reality after one of the greatest runs in history? Seems like it's been in a bubble since 1966? Now about 80 yrs and counting in the current long term cyclical rally. Took 25 yrs to recover from the 1933 lows (1954). It now only takes a few years to recover from major lows and make new highs. I guess this is how an expanding wedge is supposed to behave.
No, it takes us. And the stock market is not in a bubble. You follow charts...please show me the parabola.
My point is that those shifts in the oil and silver markets were quite unnatural, especially in such a short period of time
I think they were entirely natural and the depth and speed of the burst was exactly as should have been expected and can be proven from looking at the charts of other bubble pops.
The oil "bubble" that rose from $33 could have been stopped by the govt at $100 or $125 for example. They chose to wait for nearly $150 before applying maximum force
Say what? You really give the G too much credit. "They"...LOL
So you're saying oil at $80 was in a bubble and needed to be brought back to $53 by real supply and demand forces?
No, I dont think oil was in a bubble. I do think it was overpriced based on the strength of the global economy and increased supply from the US.
So where's the "help" needed to bring the S&P500 back to reality after one of the greatest runs in history?
Your perception of reality is different from others'. Compare the valuation of this market from other peaks. I dont think you will find many similarities. Has the run been mostly uninterrupted for an "inordinate" amount of time? Perhaps, but that does not means a collapse is imminent. Look at other charts with similar runs in both terms of magnitude and duration. How did those charts progress? I dont think you will find many collapses, but rather extended periods of consolidation.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>It still takes someone to pop the bubble at the "right" time
No, it takes us. And the stock market is not in a bubble. You follow charts...please show me the parabola.
My point is that those shifts in the oil and silver markets were quite unnatural, especially in such a short period of time
I think they were entirely natural and the depth and speed of the burst was exactly as should have been expected and can be proven from looking at the charts of other bubble pops.
The oil "bubble" that rose from $33 could have been stopped by the govt at $100 or $125 for example. They chose to wait for nearly $150 before applying maximum force
Say what? You really give the G too much credit. "They"...LOL
So you're saying oil at $80 was in a bubble and needed to be brought back to $53 by real supply and demand forces?
No, I dont think oil was in a bubble. I do think it was overpriced based on the strength of the global economy and increased supply from the US.
So where's the "help" needed to bring the S&P500 back to reality after one of the greatest runs in history?
Your perception of reality is different from others'. Compare the valuation of this market from other peaks. I dont think you will find many similarities. Has the run been mostly uninterrupted for an "inordinate" amount of time? Perhaps, but that does not means a collapse is imminent. Look at other charts with similar runs in both terms of magnitude and duration. How did those charts progress? I dont think you will find many collapses, but rather extended periods of consolidation. >>
Ignorance must be bliss when you work for the system and believe in their smoke and mirrors games. This whole system is a manipulated theater operated by the string pullers. Roadrunner is correct in his assessment.
It's the speculators. When oil is too high, it is the speculators who drove it there. When it is diving down, speculators are jumping out and shorting. I don't believe supply directly influences the price, except if it influences the speculators.
Thank you!!!
I hope one day you realize how easy it is for "them" to manipulate you.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I look forward to your comments Stan. I may soon have to cancel my subscription to the Comedy Channel.
Thank you!!!
I hope one day you realize how easy it is for "them" to manipulate you. >>
I know, it's fun to pretend you are smarter than the rest of us when you work for the system. You're nothing but a puppet for the system. When it comes crashing down, you and yours are not immune from it either, no matter what you may believe or have been sold.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
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<< <i>I look forward to your comments Stan. I may soon have to cancel my subscription to the Comedy Channel.
Thank you!!!
I hope one day you realize how easy it is for "them" to manipulate you. >>
I know, it's fun to pretend you are smarter than the rest of us when you work for the system. You're nothing but a puppet for the system. When it comes crashing down, you and yours are not immune from it either, no matter what you may believe or have been sold. >>
Thank you. I'm refreshed and challenged by your unique point of views.
<< <i>If I had a dollar for every time STM used the phrase "smoke and mirrors" since he rejoined CU, I'd may have just enough for one of those 1 oz. Gold Maple Leafs APMEX has put on sale..
I'm sorry you can't open your eyes to what is happening in the world. Instead, it's more entertaining to poke fun at others that have done their research. I guess that is how you have 20,000+ posts in about the same time it has taken me to reach 2,000.
P.S. I didn't rejoin CU. I never left. Depending on what I have going in my life, I have other more important things to do from time to time than sit on CU.
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<< <i>If I had a dollar for every time STM used the phrase "smoke and mirrors" since he rejoined CU, I'd may have just enough for one of those 1 oz. Gold Maple Leafs APMEX has put on sale..
I'm sorry you can't open your eyes to what is happening in the world. Instead, it's more entertaining to poke fun at others that have done their research. I guess that is how you have 20,000+ posts in about the same time it has taken me to reach 2,000. >>
You've used the line about the post count multiple times, too, now.
Except you didn't post for like 6 years straight before returning recently so your math is skewed there, too.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
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<< <i>If I had a dollar for every time STM used the phrase "smoke and mirrors" since he rejoined CU, I'd may have just enough for one of those 1 oz. Gold Maple Leafs APMEX has put on sale..
I'm sorry you can't open your eyes to what is happening in the world. Instead, it's more entertaining to poke fun at others that have done their research. I guess that is how you have 20,000+ posts in about the same time it has taken me to reach 2,000. >>
You've used the line about the post count multiple times, too, now.
Except you didn't post for like 6 years straight before returning recently so your math is skewed there, too. >>
I have never went 6 years between posting. More lies from your mouth. I rarely ever see you contribute thoughts or opinions in the threads I post in. All you have been doing lately is stalking my posts with trolling comments in an attempt to stir the pot. If this is how you receive your cheap entertainment, then so be it. I will just ignore you because there are more important things in this world to focus on.
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<< <i>If I had a dollar for every time STM used the phrase "smoke and mirrors" since he rejoined CU, I'd may have just enough for one of those 1 oz. Gold Maple Leafs APMEX has put on sale..
I'm sorry you can't open your eyes to what is happening in the world. Instead, it's more entertaining to poke fun at others that have done their research. I guess that is how you have 20,000+ posts in about the same time it has taken me to reach 2,000. >>
You've used the line about the post count multiple times, too, now.
Except you didn't post for like 6 years straight before returning recently so your math is skewed there, too. >>
I have never went 6 years between posting. More lies from your mouth. I rarely ever see you contribute thoughts or opinions in the threads I post in. All you have been doing lately is stalking my posts with trolling comments in an attempt to stir the pot. If this is how you receive your cheap entertainment, then so be it. I will just ignore you because there are more important things in this world to focus on. >>
Ask anyone on the sports card and memorabilia side of the forums if I rarely contribute. The truth may surprise you.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
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<< <i>If I had a dollar for every time STM used the phrase "smoke and mirrors" since he rejoined CU, I'd may have just enough for one of those 1 oz. Gold Maple Leafs APMEX has put on sale..
I'm sorry you can't open your eyes to what is happening in the world. Instead, it's more entertaining to poke fun at others that have done their research. I guess that is how you have 20,000+ posts in about the same time it has taken me to reach 2,000. >>
You've used the line about the post count multiple times, too, now.
Except you didn't post for like 6 years straight before returning recently so your math is skewed there, too. >>
I have never went 6 years between posting. More lies from your mouth. I rarely ever see you contribute thoughts or opinions in the threads I post in. All you have been doing lately is stalking my posts with trolling comments in an attempt to stir the pot. If this is how you receive your cheap entertainment, then so be it. I will just ignore you because there are more important things in this world to focus on. >>
Ask anyone on the sports card and memorabilia side of the forums if I rarely contribute. The truth may surprise you. >>
I never said you didn't contribute somewhere. I was specifically talking about these pm threads that you have been trolling me in lately looking to stir the pot. Now, I said I wouldn't reply to you anymore if you wanted to troll. I will stick to that principle unless you want to have a civil debate about the topic at hand. If that is the case, then we can do that. It's up to you.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>I'm all up for debate. I do think, however, that we can all use some humor at times, too, especially during these times. I dont typicaly agree with Mglicker, either, but he is a good sport even during disagreements. The life we spend on this Earth is too short to dwell on the negative drumbeat of news we encounter daily. That's why Baleyville is such a nice resort this time of year.
Fine, we can be civil. At least you can come back with a reply that makes sense, unlike Baseball.
Goldman Sach's involvement in the crude oil business.
I knew it would happen.
Or are you putty in my hand?
I may not be pretending.
Honestly I find it humorous that some are not happy about lower fuel prices. I guess no good deed goes unpunished. LOL
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Good God, StanTheWomanMusial. Hike up your skirt and suck it up. Do you ever tire of playing the victim?
It's really too bad that you besmirch such a great baseball legend and human being with your username. >>
Ahhh. There is the root cause. It's all about Baseball....not so much about stocks, gold, markets, etc. Now all the ranting makes sense. Imagine if STMM had chosen Pete Rose as their Icon/ID.
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<< <i>Good God, StanTheWomanMusial. Hike up your skirt and suck it up. Do you ever tire of playing the victim?
It's really too bad that you besmirch such a great baseball legend and human being with your username. >>
Ahhh. There is the root cause. It's all about Baseball....not so much about stocks, gold, markets, etc. Now all the ranting makes sense. Imagine if STMM had chosen Pete Rose as their Icon/ID.
Growing up, guys in my neighborhood that had a big mouth like Baseball usually ended up with missing teeth or a wired jaw. I figure he has a case of Napoleon complex, and hiding behind the keyboard provides him enough courage to call people names and insult their intelligence. It only shows how he has lost this debate.
The rest of us may disagree on issues, but we keep it fairly civil, outside of some witty replies and such. Baseball can't stop at that. I will say it's probably better for him to act the way he does on here, rather than doing it out in the streets of real life.
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<< <i>Good God, StanTheWomanMusial. Hike up your skirt and suck it up. Do you ever tire of playing the victim?
It's really too bad that you besmirch such a great baseball legend and human being with your username. >>
Ahhh. There is the root cause. It's all about Baseball....not so much about stocks, gold, markets, etc. Now all the ranting makes sense. Imagine if STMM had chosen Pete Rose as their Icon/ID.
Growing up, guys in my neighborhood that had a big mouth like Baseball usually ended up with missing teeth or a wired jaw. I figure he has a case of Napoleon complex, and hiding behind the keyboard provides him enough courage to call people names and insult their intelligence. It only shows how he has lost this debate.
The rest of us may disagree on issues, but we keep it fairly civil, outside of some witty replies and such. Baseball can't stop at that. I will say it's probably better for him to act the way he does on here, rather than doing it out in the streets of real life. >>
Once again, you can't help but talk about "people you know that are like me" and blah blah blah. As if any of that has to do with the complete lack of any merit in your postings. It's obvious that YOU feel you can't keep up in this "debate" otherwise you would have some intelligent things to say other than going off ranting in every other direction because you can't support or even articulate your positions. And YOU'RE the one constantly having to hide behind other members and their comments because you obviously are too much of a coward to let your comments speak for itself. Then again, I can't say I blame you entirely considering the utter incoherent thoughtless garbage that you write. >>
It's kind of hard to debate with someone like yourself who claims gold is worthless or useless. Have you failed to notice you are pretty much a lone wolf in that thinking on here? Do you ever wonder why? Could it be because you are wrong?
<< <i>First off, I never stated gold is worthless so quit getting your facts mixed up as you seem to do every step of the way. Secondly, I don't need anyone to believe in things I do to have conviction, though it's obvious you have a problem thinking for yourself. Lastly, it is easy to debate against someone like you who claims that all stocks are worthless and lauds the significant importance of a useless rock. All the while lambasting the notion of ANY value in the companies that provide all of the necessities in life for EVERYONE. It's STUNNING that you can't get your head around something so simple. >>
I asked you the question. Here is the conversation:
<< Baseball, answer the question:
Has there ever been a time in history where government issued forms of wealth or corporate promises written on paper were essentially worthless? How about gold? >>
Yes and yes (but less so).>>
Hmm... Now you claim you didn't say it?
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<< <i>First off, I never stated gold is worthless so quit getting your facts mixed up as you seem to do every step of the way. Secondly, I don't need anyone to believe in things I do to have conviction, though it's obvious you have a problem thinking for yourself. Lastly, it is easy to debate against someone like you who claims that all stocks are worthless and lauds the significant importance of a useless rock. All the while lambasting the notion of ANY value in the companies that provide all of the necessities in life for EVERYONE. It's STUNNING that you can't get your head around something so simple. >>
I asked you the question. Here is the conversation:
<< Baseball, answer the question:
Has there ever been a time in history where government issued forms of wealth or corporate promises written on paper were essentially worthless? How about gold? >>
Yes and yes (but less so).>>
Hmm... Now you claim you didn't say it? >>
Does your stupidity have NO bounds??? I NEVER stated gold "IS" worthless. That's not to say that I haven't stated that gold hasn't been worthless. Are YOU telling me that gold has ALWAYS had value to mankind since the inception of time to EVERY society in historical existence??? Chew on that for a bit and realize just how moronic your question was to begin with. >>
The more you speak, the more you are tripped up and resort back to your juvenile insults and name calling. You are being led around by the nose and can't even see it.