I'll have you know that because of this thread, I ended up watching Bill Mazzeroski's 9th inning homer in the 7th game of the 1960 World Series, parts of the 7th game in the 1952 World Series, part of the 7th game in the 1965 World Series, and a couple of other baseball youtube videos. Great Stuff!!
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
This is an oil thread I thought Can we get this back on track?
Today I read that the Saudi's supposedly have said not only are they not going to cut production , they intend to increase it.
I call BS on that note the following which seems to indicate 10,000,000 BPD is the ceiling for them.
They are at peak oil production I think .
US production has ramped way up recently and we are competing with Saudi Arabia , Russia is competing with Saudi Arabia and now if relations thaw with Iran there will be competition from there too.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I call BS on that note the following which seems to indicate 10,000,000 BPD is the ceiling for them.
Even if 10,000,000 bpd is their ceiling, they haven't been running at capacity according to the chart, and since the Russians and the US have ramped up production, another 1,000,000 bpd from Saudi over what they are currently running - can smash the price level.
The Saudis have the low-hanging fruit, the lowest cost of production and some of the best quality crude that's easiest to refine. This will give them leverage for as long as their supply remains high. There was quite a bit of speculation a few years ago that he Saudi fields were depleting past their peak level of production. We shall see. Once that is confirmed to be the case, the whole oil market will begin to ratchet up in price across the board, and much more permanently. Until then, and even after then oil will remain a key political football.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Feds did not cause the oil crash. The decline in the price of oil is a result of supply and demand. The increased production in the US has caused a temporary oversupply and the price had to fall.
Oil is consumed and will be at much higher prices sometime in the future.
<< <i>Feds did not cause the oil crash. The decline in the price of oil is a result of supply and demand. The increased production in the US has caused a temporary oversupply and the price had to fall.
Oil is consumed and will be at much higher prices sometime in the future. >>
Demand is lower here , supply is higher here in the US so that is correct but the proper response by Saudi Arabia in that world view would be to cut production to drive prices back up .
They have not done that so there is something other than pure supply and demand going on here.
<< <i>Feds did not cause the oil crash. The decline in the price of oil is a result of supply and demand. The increased production in the US has caused a temporary oversupply and the price had to fall.
Oil is consumed and will be at much higher prices sometime in the future. >>
Demand is lower here , supply is higher here in the US so that is correct but the proper response by Saudi Arabia in that world view would be to cut production to drive prices back up .
They have not done that so there is something other than pure supply and demand going on here. >>
Good point, Bronco. There has been much discussion on the Saudi response. Some ideas: 1) The Saudis really need the $ and they have the lowest production cost in the world. 2) They want to snuff out competition like US fracking, Canadian tar sands, etc. 3) They want to snuff out alternative energy: solar, geothermal, elec cars, etc. 4) They want to hurt Iraq and Iran which pose risk. 5) They think that the "green" movement will limit the use of oil in the near term and they might as well monetize their oil in the ground now. 6) The Royal family is getting all the cash they can in Swiss banks so they can exit the country in front of an impending revolution.
Good point, Bronco. There has been much discussion on the Saudi response. Some ideas: 1) The Saudis really need the $ and they have the lowest production cost in the world. 2) They want to snuff out competition like US fracking, Canadian tar sands, etc. 3) They want to snuff out alternative energy: solar, geothermal, elec cars, etc. 4) They want to hurt Iraq and Iran which pose risk. 5) They think that the "green" movement will limit the use of oil in the near term and they might as well monetize their oil in the ground now. 6) The Royal family is getting all the cash they can in Swiss banks so they can exit the country in front of an impending revolution
<< <i>Good point, Bronco. There has been much discussion on the Saudi response. Some ideas: 1) The Saudis really need the $ and they have the lowest production cost in the world. 2) They want to snuff out competition like US fracking, Canadian tar sands, etc. 3) They want to snuff out alternative energy: solar, geothermal, elec cars, etc. 4) They want to hurt Iraq and Iran which pose risk. 5) They think that the "green" movement will limit the use of oil in the near term and they might as well monetize their oil in the ground now. 6) The Royal family is getting all the cash they can in Swiss banks so they can exit the country in front of an impending revolution >>
I'm a little confused why we don't just drone in and take the oil they have.
Since they are the fountain of islamist terror types that are the latest boogeyman that would be killing 2 birds with one stone no? Wring all the oil out of the desert and then and only then frack here.
Its not as though the US has a moral objection to killing foreigners as long as they are plausibly nonwhite . Funnel a little agitprop through the big networks to get the sheep on the street howling and viola .
It would be easy enough to paint the house of Saud as hitler 2.0 .
I mean they actually are hitler2.0 hellooooo up to now the media has been covering for them all they would have to do is stop doing that .
<< <i>Feds did not cause the oil crash. The decline in the price of oil is a result of supply and demand. The increased production in the US has caused a temporary oversupply and the price had to fall.
Oil is consumed and will be at much higher prices sometime in the future. >>
Demand is lower here , supply is higher here in the US so that is correct but the proper response by Saudi Arabia in that world view would be to cut production to drive prices back up .
They have not done that so there is something other than pure supply and demand going on here. >>
Good point, Bronco. There has been much discussion on the Saudi response. Some ideas: 1) The Saudis really need the $ and they have the lowest production cost in the world. 2) They want to snuff out competition like US fracking, Canadian tar sands, etc. 3) They want to snuff out alternative energy: solar, geothermal, elec cars, etc. 4) They want to hurt Iraq and Iran which pose risk. 5) They think that the "green" movement will limit the use of oil in the near term and they might as well monetize their oil in the ground now. 6) The Royal family is getting all the cash they can in Swiss banks so they can exit the country in front of an impending revolution. >>
Maybe the Saudis don't have as much control of oil prices as most think they do.
The rapid decline in oil price was not caused by an equally rapid increase in supply or an equally rapid decline in demand. Other forces are at work. Supply and demand of oil, while subject to change, do not naturally change that fast. Any major supplier can drive prices. The others have to follow suit or lose sales.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
The premise of the blog is "Drilling for Oil, producing Oil, transporting Oil… all of these are extremely expensive processes. Which means… unless you have hundreds of millions (if not billions) of Dollars in cash lying around… you’re going to have to borrow money.
Well, Chevron has $16 billion lying around. Exxon has $5 billion. Royal Dutch has $10 billion. Halliburton and Schlumberger have $17 billion combined. These companies also have tremendous cash flows. There is no need to borrow.
The dollar is going up because growth prospects and interest rates are higher in the US than in Europe and Japan. What if the dollar is actually cycling from a 12 year bear market to a 12 year bull market?
There are several charts in 2014 that all have that same look as the USD: USD/EUR, USD/YEN, USD/CAD, USD/AUD, Gold to Silver ratio, and 10yr/2y US Treasury yield ratio. While the dollar is obviously involved in all of these, it's actually the Yen's performance since 2011 that most closely resembles the whack that commodities have taken. And commodities getting whacked means the rock currencies get hit too. Japan's economic moves in the past year has really accelerated the progress and helped to tank oil with one good punch. The dollar deserves credit but there's stuff going on outside the dollar that's playing a big role. I agree with derryb that the rapid descent in oil from $80 to $53 was far more than plain old supply and demand.
<< <i>The dollar is going up because growth prospects and interest rates are higher in the US than in Europe and Japan. What if the dollar is actually cycling from a 12 year bear market to a 12 year bull market? >>
The dollar index is going up because the currencies that it is compared to are going down. A strong dollar index does not necessary reflect a strong economy. It only reflects one that is not worse than those that are already in the ditch.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>The dollar is going up because growth prospects and interest rates are higher in the US than in Europe and Japan. What if the dollar is actually cycling from a 12 year bear market to a 12 year bull market? >>
The dollar index is going up because the currencies that it is compared to are going down. A strong dollar index does not necessary reflect a strong economy. It only reflects one that is not worse than those that are already in the ditch. >>
More importantly, what it means is that commodities that are priced in dollars are going lower. Just as predicted.
commodities getting whacked means the rock currencies get hit too
Careful roadrunner. I got a new intestinal tract opening when I referred to the Cando and Aussie $ as rocked based currencies several years ago.
Comments
I knew it would happen.
This is an oil thread I thought
Today I read that the Saudi's supposedly have said not only are they not going to cut production , they intend to increase it.
I call BS on that note the following which seems to indicate 10,000,000 BPD is the ceiling for them.
They are at peak oil production I think .
US production has ramped way up recently and we are competing with Saudi Arabia , Russia is competing with Saudi Arabia and now if relations thaw with Iran there will be competition from there too.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Even if 10,000,000 bpd is their ceiling, they haven't been running at capacity according to the chart, and since the Russians and the US have ramped up production, another 1,000,000 bpd from Saudi over what they are currently running - can smash the price level.
The Saudis have the low-hanging fruit, the lowest cost of production and some of the best quality crude that's easiest to refine. This will give them leverage for as long as their supply remains high. There was quite a bit of speculation a few years ago that he Saudi fields were depleting past their peak level of production. We shall see. Once that is confirmed to be the case, the whole oil market will begin to ratchet up in price across the board, and much more permanently. Until then, and even after then oil will remain a key political football.
I knew it would happen.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
a result of supply and demand. The increased production in the US has
caused a temporary oversupply and the price had to fall.
Oil is consumed and will be at much higher prices sometime in the future.
<< <i>Feds did not cause the oil crash. The decline in the price of oil is
a result of supply and demand. The increased production in the US has
caused a temporary oversupply and the price had to fall.
Oil is consumed and will be at much higher prices sometime in the future. >>
Demand is lower here , supply is higher here in the US so that is correct but the proper response by Saudi Arabia in that world view would be to cut production to drive prices back up .
They have not done that so there is something other than pure supply and demand going on here.
<< <i>
<< <i>Feds did not cause the oil crash. The decline in the price of oil is
a result of supply and demand. The increased production in the US has
caused a temporary oversupply and the price had to fall.
Oil is consumed and will be at much higher prices sometime in the future. >>
Demand is lower here , supply is higher here in the US so that is correct but the proper response by Saudi Arabia in that world view would be to cut production to drive prices back up .
They have not done that so there is something other than pure supply and demand going on here. >>
Good point, Bronco. There has been much discussion on the Saudi response.
Some ideas:
1) The Saudis really need the $ and they have the lowest production cost in the world.
2) They want to snuff out competition like US fracking, Canadian tar sands, etc.
3) They want to snuff out alternative energy: solar, geothermal, elec cars, etc.
4) They want to hurt Iraq and Iran which pose risk.
5) They think that the "green" movement will limit the use of oil in the near term
and they might as well monetize their oil in the ground now.
6) The Royal family is getting all the cash they can in Swiss banks so they can exit the
country in front of an impending revolution.
Some ideas:
1) The Saudis really need the $ and they have the lowest production cost in the world.
2) They want to snuff out competition like US fracking, Canadian tar sands, etc.
3) They want to snuff out alternative energy: solar, geothermal, elec cars, etc.
4) They want to hurt Iraq and Iran which pose risk.
5) They think that the "green" movement will limit the use of oil in the near term
and they might as well monetize their oil in the ground now.
6) The Royal family is getting all the cash they can in Swiss banks so they can exit the
country in front of an impending revolution
<< <i>Good point, Bronco. There has been much discussion on the Saudi response.
Some ideas:
1) The Saudis really need the $ and they have the lowest production cost in the world.
2) They want to snuff out competition like US fracking, Canadian tar sands, etc.
3) They want to snuff out alternative energy: solar, geothermal, elec cars, etc.
4) They want to hurt Iraq and Iran which pose risk.
5) They think that the "green" movement will limit the use of oil in the near term
and they might as well monetize their oil in the ground now.
6) The Royal family is getting all the cash they can in Swiss banks so they can exit the
country in front of an impending revolution >>
I'm a little confused why we don't just drone in and take the oil they have.
Since they are the fountain of islamist terror types that are the latest boogeyman that would be killing 2 birds with one stone no?
Wring all the oil out of the desert and then and only then frack here.
Its not as though the US has a moral objection to killing foreigners as long as they are plausibly nonwhite . Funnel a little agitprop through the big networks to get the sheep on the street howling and viola .
It would be easy enough to paint the house of Saud as hitler 2.0 .
I mean they actually are hitler2.0 hellooooo
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Feds did not cause the oil crash. The decline in the price of oil is
a result of supply and demand. The increased production in the US has
caused a temporary oversupply and the price had to fall.
Oil is consumed and will be at much higher prices sometime in the future. >>
Demand is lower here , supply is higher here in the US so that is correct but the proper response by Saudi Arabia in that world view would be to cut production to drive prices back up .
They have not done that so there is something other than pure supply and demand going on here. >>
Good point, Bronco. There has been much discussion on the Saudi response.
Some ideas:
1) The Saudis really need the $ and they have the lowest production cost in the world.
2) They want to snuff out competition like US fracking, Canadian tar sands, etc.
3) They want to snuff out alternative energy: solar, geothermal, elec cars, etc.
4) They want to hurt Iraq and Iran which pose risk.
5) They think that the "green" movement will limit the use of oil in the near term
and they might as well monetize their oil in the ground now.
6) The Royal family is getting all the cash they can in Swiss banks so they can exit the
country in front of an impending revolution. >>
Maybe the Saudis don't have as much control of oil prices as most think they do.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>
Maybe the Saudis don't have as much control of oil prices as most think they do. >>
The Saudis control of oil is basically a dimmer switch on the wells they own. Beyond oil , they don't really have a plan B for their country.
They have a one dimensional strategy but they are motivated actors they can't just sit on the sidelines .
When the oil is gone they won't remain rich by selling date nut bread at bake sales
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>The $9T US dollar carry trade did it, what's next? >>
The premise of the blog is "Drilling for Oil, producing Oil, transporting Oil… all of these are extremely expensive processes. Which means… unless you have hundreds of millions (if not billions) of Dollars in cash lying around… you’re going to have to borrow money.
Well, Chevron has $16 billion lying around. Exxon has $5 billion. Royal Dutch has $10 billion. Halliburton and Schlumberger have $17 billion combined. These companies also have tremendous cash flows. There is no need to borrow.
The dollar is going up because growth prospects and interest rates are higher in the US than in Europe and Japan. What if the dollar is actually cycling from a 12 year bear market to a 12 year bull market?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>The dollar is going up because growth prospects and interest rates are higher in the US than in Europe and Japan. What if the dollar is actually cycling from a 12 year bear market to a 12 year bull market? >>
The dollar index is going up because the currencies that it is compared to are going down. A strong dollar index does not necessary reflect a strong economy. It only reflects one that is not worse than those that are already in the ditch.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>
<< <i>The dollar is going up because growth prospects and interest rates are higher in the US than in Europe and Japan. What if the dollar is actually cycling from a 12 year bear market to a 12 year bull market? >>
The dollar index is going up because the currencies that it is compared to are going down. A strong dollar index does not necessary reflect a strong economy. It only reflects one that is not worse than those that are already in the ditch. >>
More importantly, what it means is that commodities that are priced in dollars are going lower. Just as predicted.
commodities getting whacked means the rock currencies get hit too
Careful roadrunner. I got a new intestinal tract opening when I referred to the Cando and Aussie $ as rocked based currencies several years ago.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear