It's interesting to see so many who have theoretical knowledge of such a grouping and its disposition.
To the OP.... I'd be surprised if you don't get 3 ignorant querulous questions for each further clear reply. To dignify such remarks only encourages what we here describe as "TROLLS".
Also, PM to be sent. . . )
"People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf." - Geo. Orwell
<< <i>It's interesting to see so many who have theoretical knowledge of such a grouping and its disposition.
To the OP.... I'd be surprised if you don't get 3 ignorant querulous questions for each further clear reply. To dignify such remarks only encourages what we here describe as "TROLLS".
Also, PM to be sent. . . ) >>
Rick, If your above comments "To the OP" were meant for me, please explain exactly what you mean. Thanks. Steve
<< <i>It's interesting to see so many who have theoretical knowledge of such a grouping and its disposition.
To the OP.... I'd be surprised if you don't get 3 ignorant querulous questions for each further clear reply. To dignify such remarks only encourages what we here describe as "TROLLS".
Very odd that these would be sold this way. Why not consign to an auction, or to any of the specialty cent sellers? Surely buying in bulk whoever does make a bid will do so well well below market value, especially since it will most likely be a dealer looking to resell the vast majority. So even if "flooding the market" at auction, prices realized should be better than selling in bulk? I don't know. I'd love to own one, but I don't need/can't afford 50 of 'em. Even if you only did ten per month over the next five months you could have been half way through selling 'em by now.
Hi Alan, Welcome to the PCGS coin boards. I note you are from Montana and you chose the Set Registry board to make your first post. You make a good point about the choice the seller of this hoard made to attempt to sell ALL 53 of his 1909VDB matte proof Lincoln cents to ONE potential buyer. Although the seller has approximately 35% of all the existing coins of this variety out there it will probably be VERY difficult for him to find THE person who (1) has the MONEY and (2) who is willing to take the RISK involved in owning this hoard. If you collect Lincoln cents and particularly if you are interested in the 1909 thru 1916 matte proof Lincoln cents (MPL's), I encourage you to read some of the many postings on this subject on this Set Registry board as well as the regular Coin Forum board. Enjoy! Steve
<< <i>Hi Alan, Welcome to the PCGS coin boards. I note you are from Montana and you chose the Set Registry board to make your first post. You make a good point about the choice the seller of this hoard made to attempt to sell ALL 53 of his 1909VDB matte proof Lincoln cents to ONE potential buyer. Although the seller has approximately 35% of all the existing coins of this variety out there it will probably be VERY difficult for him to find THE person who (1) has the MONEY and (2) who is willing to take the RISK involved in owning this hoard. If you collect Lincoln cents and particularly if you are interested in the 1909 thru 1916 matte proof Lincoln cents (MPL's), I encourage you to read some of the many postings on this subject on this Set Registry board as well as the regular Coin Forum board. Enjoy! Steve >>
Hi Steve, thanks for the welcome. I'm a long time lurker, I've been collecting on and off since 2011. I usually hang out at the NGC boards, but have been reading over here more and more as these boards are more active. Figured it was time to register and start participating. I missed this topic the first time it was posted, but will be watching it now with a lot of interest. Hopefully I can also contribute in the US Coins section as knowledge and opinions permit.
How about this? 50 people sign up to join an investment group. We elect a 3 person arbitration panel. Everyone ponies up a certain amount to be in the group, say 40K. The resulting 2m is offered. Proceeding from there; If the resultant 2m is declined then the group decides whether to raise the offer or disband. If it is accepted, the arbitration panel sorts the coins by grade and value and then the coins are distributed with the higher grade coins requiring a premium for those who want them and the lower grade ones are distributed with funds from the extra money paid for the higher grade ones. Its a mess sure but it might be a start. Another idea is for people to pay at certain levels depending on the grades of the coins. If there are let's say 3 67s, 10 66s, 20 65's, 15 64's and the rest 63's, fair market price is paid for whatever grade you want. People in the group could select lots to see who goes first. At the end of the selecting, people can trade to get whatever grade they can afford. So, if you want a 64 but only a 67 is left, hopefully you can find some people in the group to trade with. I know it would never work but how are we going to get these coins to the collectors that want them without crushing the market? Think of the folks who have bought these at a fair price. If they are all suddenly on the market at once, the price will plummet. It would be patently unfair to those collectors who bought coins before the hoard was released. The only other thing is to release them slowly but once word gets out, and it will, the price will still seriously dive. If anyone is game to put together a group of buyers and the seller is open to this, I would certainly take the chance and join up. I would elect Andy Skrabalak of Angel Dee's to be one of the arbitrators. A more fair and knowledgeable Lincoln expert would be very hard to find.
Its been a minute short of a year since this thread was active, so my question is this: Are the coins still available? The sale was going to be private, so where are they?
From what I just heard, the hoard is still exactly where it was. The owner supposedly still wants to sell them but so far, only as a single lot. (sigh) I also owe the discussion an apology, especially Steve, because I didn't see his earlier suggestion about putting together a "buying syndicate" of interested collectors. So basically I was just repeating an idea already put up. I missed the actual list too! Nevertheless, I still would like to band together with people and try to do this. One thing I thought of in the last few days is; How about getting some dealers involved? If the 20 biggest would commit to 2 coins each, the thing would almost be licked. Anyways, for whatever it is worth; I would definitely put up for a 63, 64 or 65BN. That is about my limit. A man can dream, can't he?
From what I just heard, the hoard is still exactly where it was. The owner supposedly still wants to sell them but so far, only as a single lot. (sigh) I also owe the discussion an apology, especially Steve, because I didn't see his earlier suggestion about putting together a "buying syndicate" of interested collectors. So basically I was just repeating an idea already put up. I missed the actual list too! Nevertheless, I still would like to band together with people and try to do this. One thing I thought of in the last few days is; How about getting some dealers involved? If the 20 biggest would commit to 2 coins each, the thing would almost be licked. Anyways, for whatever it is worth; I would definitely put up for a 63, 64 or 65BN. That is about my limit. A man can dream, can't he?
Deefree49, welcome to the boards. It sounds like you have a deep interest in Matte Proof Lincoln cents. This particular issue regarding the 1909VDB MPL's is very interesting to me because the true availability of the coin is limited to about 150 existing certified examples of which 53 are in the "hoard". The other interesting point is that the numismatic media has stayed silent regarding the "hoard" for about a year now. I'm sure the dealer community, and especially those specializing in "copper" are well aware of this situation. The hobby, and particularly collectors are hurt because even if they wanted to purchase an example of the 1909VDB MPL at a reasonable price, only about 100 are currently in the hands of other collectors. This particular "hoarder" gobbled up most of his examples via auction and private transaction during the past several years. There are a number of people on these boards who have an interest in MPL's. Please continue to contribute your thoughts and also check back a few YEARS in this SET REGISTRY forum for various threads on this topic. Steve
I just noticed that they cut-off the Set Registry threads history for only back to January, 2015. We used to have a much longer history available. SAD. Sorry this new FUSETALK version really messes a lot up.
The second that hoard is broken up, prices will crash. There's more coins in that collection than there are collectors of them. Look what happened to the 1864-L proof cents as an example of what I mean
The second that hoard is broken up, prices will crash. There's more coins in that collection than there are collectors of them. Look what happened to the 1864-L proof cents as an example of what I mean
Bruce,
The hoarder, his agent, or his estate would be just plain STUPID to sell those coins piecemeal. In fact, the hobby needs to be diligent to ASSURE that that doesn't happen. In my opinion, you and Laura could do everyone in the hobby and the hobby in general a great service by helping manage the resolution of this issue. While the coin market is currently struggling, the over century history of this particular issue of the first Lincoln cent proof coin minted on July 30, 1909 with 1.503 struck and MANY then destroyed for various reasons, creates a desire by many Lincoln cent collectors to someday own one. Fact is, those lucky enough to currently own one of the 100 or so are NOT rushing to sell. There are enough collectors "out there" to fully subscribe to the 150 or so true 1909VDB MPL's that are left in existence. Steve
Hi again everyone. Well I'm a new member here although my entry into collecting goes back many years. Long ago enough that I remember when the reverse of Lincoln cents changed from wheats! I used to go to the bank and stake out a space away from the tellers and go through $20 worth of pennies over and over again. In those days you could find some good stuff that way. Well long story short, I've lost two collections over the years and just started again this past Fall. Mostly I've been into copper proofs, 1916 and earlier. I've really enjoyed it immensely since beginning again!
I hope to get to know some of the folks here. So far I've met Steve Cohen and Carl Waltz Jr. and both have been very nice and welcoming to me. So I'm working on a Lincoln Matte Proof collection and have acquired everything but the VDB. (what else is new?!) This particular thread is a "no brainer" for me since anyone who lacks that particular coin has an interest in the large 53 coin hoard...the elephant in the room so to speak.
I would like to get to know the other collectors who are interested in the Lincoln matte set and just toss around stuff, share stuff we've learned and would like to learn. It is interesting that there are still unknown or uncertain things about those coins. For instance; 1) how many VDB proofs were actually released? 2) How many 1910 proofs were actually made? The reported number varies from around 2,000 to over 4,000. My opinion, which is really no more than a guess based on the existing population is that about 2,100 were issued. 3) How many 1916's? Flynn says 600 and for the longest time the number was assumed to be 1,050. My opinion, which again is nothing more than a guess based on the existing population is that the number seems to be somewhere between 600 and 800. It is 600 if people were more inclined to save them, knowing the mint was going to no longer issue proofs. (until 1936) and more like 800 if people saved them at about the same rate as the previous years' issues. Well obviously I've given this some thought but it hasn't helped me acquire a VDB yet!
I look forward to hopefully exchanging ideas with the people who contribute to the forum and hopefully making some friends along the way. Thanks to Steve and Carl for the welcome!
I've been reading this thread since its inception and finally decided to post since it was brought to the top today. Simply put, the handling of this coin has determined it to be a loser's game all around. There are several reasons for this-
1) The sequestered supply represents approximately 50% of the total coins that are held by others, which is an enormous percent of product to hang over the market.
2) While many folks would love to own a 1909 VDB MPL, the fact is that the cost basis of this single coin is likely to drive away a large portion (a majority?) of those who collect the rest of the MPL series.
3) One thing not mentioned in this thread, as far as I can tell, is that most MPLs are, to put it bluntly; dogs. The coins don't necessarily look nice and many shouldn't, in my opinion, see the inside of a problem-free holder. This means that in order for the hoard to be absorbed many, many folks will have to pay deep dollars for sub-par pieces. This is not easily likely, in my opinion.
4) MPLs are generally a severely limited, niche market without the flashy good looks that many collectors prefer in brilliant proof coinage.
5) Communication of details and images appears to be lacking, which does not typically help facilitate a transaction at market value.
6) I don't know what it would take for a price to be accepted, but my gut, which has been entirely wrong on more than one occasion, is telling me that the owner(s) is/are not looking to take a haircut on the deal.
7) Whoever buys this lot will now have to place 50+ coins quickly because the value of these pieces is almost certain drop given that the major buyer of the product has withdrawn and, therefore, will not be there to either soak up excess inventory or prop up flagging bid prices. The longer coins hang around, the softer prices will be.
From where I stand, if major details do not change then this hoard goes to the grave with the owner(s) and then the heirs will deal with it accordingly in order to extract the value left. I would prefer to wait for the heirs to liquidate in an orderly fashion than to take on the myriad problems associated with a publicized, aborted sale.
Of course, if the sale has already gone through then I a may be mightily off the mark.
I hate to be cynical, but are we even certain that this hoard exists? And that they are VDB proofs and that they're genuine? Has anyone other than this Paul guy (who claims he is neither a collector nor a numismatist) verified their existence or authenticity?
It would be a matter of a phone call to get Legend/Stacks/HA in on this - or even PCGS - to at least verify their existence and get some press on it.
I'm dubious of the whole affair. It appears the seller isn't very interested in selling. If I wanted to create a sensational story and stir the pot, so-to-speak, in the numismatic world, here is what I would do:
1. Claim to have a majority rarity or hoard of rarities
2. Have an unknown person represent the hoard.
3. Not contact any of the major auction houses or grading services to confirm the authenticity of the hoard.
4. Don't have an asking price for the hoard.
5. Don't provide any images of the hoard.
5. Go into hiding for 2 years.
Does this raise any flags for anyone else or am I alone here?
@TomB said:
I've been reading this thread since its inception and finally decided to post since it was brought to the top today. Simply put, the handling of this coin has determined it to be a loser's game all around. There are several reasons for this-
3) One thing not mentioned in this thread, as far as I can tell, is that most MPLs are, to put it bluntly; dogs. The coins don't necessarily look nice and many shouldn't, in my opinion, see the inside of a problem-free holder. This means that in order for the hoard to be absorbed many, many folks will have to pay deep dollars for sub-par pieces. This is not easily likely, in my opinion.
4) MPLs are generally a severely limited, niche market without the flashy good looks that many collectors prefer in brilliant proof coinage.
5) Communication of details and images appears to be lacking, which does not typically help facilitate a transaction at market value.
Tom,
I've followed your comments on the forums for many years and I do respect what you say. As regards your points #3, #4, and #5 I believe you are referring to all MPL's and not just the 1909VDB MPL. I feel strongly that a collector of Lincoln MPL's makes a major distinction between the eight 1909 thru 1916 MPL's and the 1909VDB. I agree that many of the MPL's are not pretty, but I also believe that if a collector has the opportunity to own a true 1909VDB at a fair price the collector would have less concern about the looks of the coin and more interest in the rarity. While 150 examples may seem a lot, the fact is that the 100 or so NOT in the hoard are in the hands of collectors who really appreciate the coin's rarity. It is true that specialty dealers in copper coins can provide a potential buyer a 1909 thru 1916 MPL fairly easily and quickly. There are many on the market and available right now. I believe there are virtually no 1909VDB MPL's for sale directly from dealers today. Only thru auctions. That is why I think it is important for the hobby dealers to get together and resolve this hoard issue. The coins the hoarder owns, all in PCGS, NGC and one other slab have value, some worth many thousands each. This "story" should not be a secret. It should be resolved. It represents 35% of the coins currently in existence.
Steve
I find MPLs interesting to collect and even preferable to "brilliant" proof cents. I have to disagree about most of them being "dogs". What you generally see for sale on EBay and elsewhere are the less attractive coins that folks are trying to rid themselves of. These visible coins are the ones people no longer want or never wanted and acquired in trade or other market circumstance.
The BEST coins are being HELD and are much less likely to even be seen by anyone. The finest examples are available for viewing on Coin Facts and more can be found by looking at images in the Registry sets of folks who purposefully collect them. Look at the complete or near complete collections to see some amazingly beautiful coins. Some MPLs are so striking they have even been given names, such as "The Greenie", a 1912 currently for sale by Rick Snow at Eagle Eye.
There are a handful of coin dealers who specialize in matte proof Lincolns. Very attractive pieces can be seen at their sites as well and seeing these will illustrate how the best mattes can be so captivating and appealing to those who collect them.
As far as the hoard, that is a sticky problem, but the amount in the hoard is not 50% of the known population. It is closer to 25%. Sure that is a significant percentage but not nearly as impactful as 50% would be if they were made available at once.
1) If the owner (or their heir) dumps them on the market all at once, it will obviously be a disaster for prices and for those who already hold one.
2) If they are bought by a smart collector, they would allow them to reach the market very slowly. A strategy of offering them at a rate of about 6 a year shouldn't affect the market greatly one way or the other.
3) If a buying group manages to assemble themselves, organize and purchase the hoard, then I couldn't say what would happen but it probably would lead to some mild price depression. Yet perhaps a reawakening of collector interest might be created by this scenario which could result in a counterbalance to any pressure on the market. If such a group made some rules or a charter outlining how to divest the coins, an optimal situation could occur where those who want a coin can get a coin and the prices stay relatively stable. This is an extreme long shot though. How do you control a group of crazy coin collectors?!
One more comment about "dogs". There are at least 2 VDB examples for sale currently on collectors.com. Both are quite striking in appearance and extremely attractive. Andy Skrabalak of Angel Dee's has a very fine piece for sale currently. I would give eye teeth to own any one of these three. If you want to label a particular coin as a "dog", how about the 1922 no D Lincoln Cent? Here's a coin that is scarce but not truly rare (see population reports) and in choice condition can amass as much as a VDB proof. I would take any MPL over your typical 1922 no D in VF or XF condition and say the MPL will be the far more attractive coin in every case. My point is that collectors are unpredictable and be careful about disparaging any series of coins as "dogs" or "generally uncollectible".
deefree49 you might not know me and that is fine, but I think at least part of your post is in response to mine so I will address two points. Prior to that, I'll mention that I'm quite happy you adore these coins since I also think they are fascinating and represent an area that not everyone takes the time to examine. I'm also glad to read your posts because they show quite a bit of passion and that is sometimes missing in this field. I wish you good fortune with your acquisitions.
I first started searching for and buying and selling quality MPLs in the 1990s, which means that I have spent approximately two decades examining the offerings in auctions, finding the coins in dealer inventories on the bourse, buying wonderful examples and placing them with collectors. In fact, more than a few of the pieces that folks look at and say "wow" about were handled by me prior to being placed in their current homes. I also know the Skrabalaks very well and am familiar with the fine coins they attempt to carry. Additionally, I have a pretty fair eye for surface manipulation, both past and present, and when detected generally earns the coin the dog status. When I wrote that so many are dogs it is because quite a few are dogs. I've seen both ends of the spectrum of this niche market for a long time and there are a fair number of coins that are just, well...
The 50% number I used in my post was taken from Steve who has repeatedly written in this thread that there are likely around 150-extant 1909 VDB MPLs and that the hoard contains approximately 50-examples. If this is true or fairly accurate, and I see no reason to debate this point since it is not only minor, but I haven't studied the numbers, then 50-coins might be in the hoard and 100-coins might be in the greater numismatic pool (150-extant examples minus 50-coins in the hoard). This would mean that the sequestered supply would represent approximately 50% of the supply owned by others (50-hoard coins divided by 100-coins owned by the greater numismatic pool). If you think the number is closer to 25% then that is fine, too, and I have no issue with it whatsoever. I just wanted to clear up where I got that 50% value from in case it was not evident.
Regardless, I don't know if I would label a collector as "smart" if he/she had to invest likely somewhere in the seven-figures to obtain a hoard that would then require around nine years to disperse with careful planning and execution in the hope of simply breaking even. Awfully well off; certainly. Awfully altruistic; possibly. Awfully smart; no.
Good luck to all in their pursuit of these and other coins. It's a great hobby with lots of interesting corners, wonderful trivia, loads of history and seemingly endless theoretical discussions.
Wow that was a very thoughtful response. Thank you for taking the time to write and be patient with me. You know looking back at what I wrote and thinking back on it, I was being a little defensive there. You are right that I am passionate about MPLs, and coins in general and sometimes I do get a little excited about all of it. Regarding the 50% thing, that really isn't an issue with me either. I'm really just hoping the market doesn't collapse because of that hoard. Unfortunately, the likely end will be all of them dumped at Heritage or Legend and all at once. That would be a disaster for the market on VDB proofs and might also bleed over to the other matte proofs too.
Regarding "dogs", again I admit to being a bit defensive there. Yet I do still feel there are some real pieces of numismatic art out there. You do make a vital point though and it is one that I'm sadly becoming more aware with as time goes on. That is obviously the coin doctors and the deep questions raised by the possibility of manipulating the appearance of a piece. We are talking about substantial money here. While I don't have a lot of experience with this, I've now been around long enough to know "stuff" happens to coins. It has been done well enough to fool the graders and that alone is chilling. We initially put so much faith in the third party grading and then to come to realize that faith might be misplaced can be very discouraging. It is no surprise that the result of this can make one cynical. I also can see that you have a lot of experience with coins and matte proofs, certainly a lot more than I have! So I appreciate you taking the time to share a bit of your experience with me. It helps create more perspective and illustrates that you have to keep your mind open as well as your eyes.
So far, my passion for collecting has overshadowed my disappointments but it is a problem going forward. I guess you have to be smart, tough and careful and not just trust a number that a third party grader has put on a plastic slab. I've also tried to establish a good relationship with a dealer I can trust. I know dealers have to be able to profit but they are definitely not all equal. I've found Andy at Angel Dee's to be special. He treats me more like a friend than a customer and I just feel lucky to have an ongoing customer/dealer relationship with him.
Thanks for writing and answering and I hope we meet again on these boards and who knows...perhaps at a show somewhere.
I have the tendency to write in a very dry, matter of fact way and this can make it quite difficult for the reader to understand or infer my tone (no pun intended). It's just the way I communicate. I took no offense to anything you wrote and assumed that you simply thought I might be tearing down the coin or the niche without really having much knowledge in the area, which would have been a fair assumption on your part given I don't write much on the boards about MPLs.
I adore MPLs and have handled many examples of each issue, save the VDB, but have been largely quiet in this area for at least five or six years and that has been due to the lack of material that I liked and that I could place rather than a lack of interest on my part. I hope this hoard gets disbursed in an efficient, meaningful way that helps those in the community acquire an example to their liking at a fair price. It just seems like that is an awfully thin tightrope for the seller to walk while also keeping his/her financial interests in place.
Good luck with the coins and continue to support and speak with the Skrabalaks; they have seen more than all but a few in this niche and they are folks who will tell it like it is if you really want to know the truth.
I've been following this story myself for a number of years. Yes I love Matte Proof Lincolns, but probably cannot afford a VDB. In any case, I am just having a hard time understanding why the owner wouldnt get the entire hoard 1.) crossed to PCGS (which would provide level-playing field grading), then 2.) professionally TrueView photographed (to get them imaged and cataloged in CoinFacts), then 3.) sell a few a year using a high end auction house over a multiyear period. That just seems like the logical way to go about it.
I do know this 50+ coin hoard was offered on eBay with a min bid of $1,000,000 a few years ago -- I was watching it -- and nobody bid! I think buying 50 of these all at once kind of a risky proposition -- you would need to be prepared to have them in your inventory for years (and/or prepared to take a bath on the prices).
I kind of agree with the poster above that said we probably need to wait for the owner to pass, then have his heirs liquidate these in a more logical (hopefully) manner.
I did have a (perhaps crazy) passing thought -- I wonder if the owner is as eccentric as he seems to be -- is there is a non-trivial chance that these might get "buried in a wall" (a metaphor) somewhere and lost (eventually) -- which would make any existing MPL (already in private hands) that much more rare and valuable. Ahh the stuff of coin lore. If a 1913 Liberty Nickel can get lost for 50 years, why not a roll of VDB MPLs. That would make for a very significant drop in the field population.
Me personally, I am not holding my breath on seeing these sold off. I think it's a years away proposition -- if ever.
For those of you interested in this subject who might have missed this post I made a couple of years ago earlier in this thread, I am copying it here. It shows that the hoard in total DOES have value, and in particular, the proofs in the PR66 & PR67 range represent some of the finest examples in existence. Obviously, values of MPL's in general, have retreated from their late 2014, early 2015 prices, but to say these coins in total aren't worth at least a million dollars to an astute buyer who can manage their distribution back into the market I think is undervaluing the hoard. Of course there is risk in any numismatic transaction, but for the sake of our hobby, I hope this gets resolved fairly and soon. Just MY opinion. Steve
@Steve said:
<< Maybe we can form a 1909 VDB buyers syndicate. Get a group of individuals who would want at least one of the coins, figure out a value per coin and submit the total. We could then divide the coins up between the buyers syndicate members.
We need the list of the coins, itemized with grade, grading service, serial numbers and a good image.
John Story Jenks Collection & most recent Jonathan Watkins/McCullagh Collection
Thanks, Rick, The 11 NGC coins are identified by ***, and the ICG coin is the PR67RD. The other 41 coins are PCGS.
I've now added RETAIL pricing based on the PCGS current price guide. I've used one grade value LOWER for each of the 11 NGC coins. Of course, this number has no relevance to reality because RETAIL pricing represents the amount the SELLER would like to receive for the coins he wants to sell. And, the PCGS Price Guide values coins in the same grade with the same color designation at the same price. Obviously, each coin is different and commands a price based on its individual qualities. With that said, I'll save everyone the trouble of adding up the 53 coins by stating the price this calculation comes up with is $2,409.000.
What a thing! Thanks Steve for reposting that. It really does help and if I can even say this, "wrap your brain around what's there". It is so weird that someone decided to collect these with such dogged determination and I have long thought about what might eventually happen with these coins.
To acquire a single VDB proof is a significant undertaking as Winged Liberty said. It is beyond the budget of most collectors and so for most of us is just something to speculate about. So the concept of a single party trying to buy all 53 of them would be truly nearing the level of impossible. You would need someone with the means, coin knowledge and desire to own and deal with them and I wonder if that combination actually exists in anyone at all. The reality of organizing a "VDB Hoard Purchasing Syndicate" is very remote but as I offered a year ago, it would be something I'd consider joining. In the meantime, all interested parties can just watch and wait.
Yet nobody put in the minimum bid of 1 million when the 53-coin hoard was offered on eBay in April 2015.
if you subtract out $200k (which is pcgs guide price) for the monster PR67+RB ...
that leaves $800k for the remaining 52 coins ,,,
That's an average of $15,385 per coin for the remaining 52.
And nobody was biting.
That says volumes about this situation
Here is a screen capture of the ebay auction, soon after it ended with 0 bidders.
Yet nobody put in the minimum bid of 1 million when the 53-coin hoard was offered on eBay in April 2015.
if you subtract out $200k (which is pcgs guide price) for the monster PR67+RB ...
that leaves $800k for the remaining 52 coins ,,,
That's an average of $15,385 per coin for the remaining 52.
And nobody was biting.
That says volumes about this situation
Here is a screen capture of the ebay auction, soon after it ended with 0 bidders.
The $1 million price was not real in that "auction" listing. There was a reserve price that was more than double the initial bid.
What has happened to prices of MPL's since the news of the hoard was released publicly?
From what I can tell, just about nothing changed. Actually the VDB prices have remained generally stable while the other matte proofs have gone through some minor variations. The recent Wright sale of red matte proofs did affect the highest price category of each date including the VDB highest red price. Otherwise, there has been practically no movement in the rest of the VDB prices. Brown and Red-Brown and all the grades have been quite without any movement for awhile.
The most knowledgeable people that I've heard speak about this hoard think the worst situation would be putting them all up at once in a single auction. I think we all can figure the result would be a very drastic reduction in value. I think it would even put a chill on the sale itself. Most potential buyers would be in "watch and wait" mode and prices would likely drag. Hopefully anyone who does try to sell these is aware of that and would strongly avoid taking that road.
It is my understanding that the Ebay auction above which showed a STARTING bid of $1,000,000 did NOT imply that the seller would accept such a bid as the final offer. I believe key active and potential acquirers of this hoard have had contact with the person who was managing the Ebay auction and have come to the conclusion that a "deal" was not possible. I believe the fact that this hoard continues to remain a "secret" to any reporting in the numismatic press troubles me. I wonder if it is felt that potential publicity in coin stories would enhance the seller's position in regards to sale. JMHO. Steve
Thanks for the added info on the reserve. I had no idea there was something hidden in that auction in terms of the reserve. I wonder why the ebay auction said "starting bid 1,000,000" when in fact the starting bid was over 2,000,000 ? Why wouldnt the ebay ad have actually said starting bid 2,000,000 or reserve price 2,000,000. So that was a "fake starting bid" listed. Boy that is bizarre.
A dealer with deep pockets should make a phone call, or visit in person at a National show perhaps to view all 53 MPL's and make a 1x bid. They could pick it up, and put all 53 in their online inventory at set prices and first come first served.
Eventually they would all sell.
Maybe Wonderwallet, I mean Wondercoin could jump in.
That eBay seller theosixx has no coin selling history, seems to be a contact... the language in the listing seemed like they were trying to make a contact for off eBay sale.
Even though the experts are saying it would be a 'bad' deal as prices will crash, I could see them being a nice retirement program for someone with a sale of 2-3 per year.
@coincommando said:
Bet more then half won't cac. Judging by the way the guy is selling them, he probably thought he was a genius too when buying them. Bet every copper coin doc has a sig on a coin or two in this deal.
If this was a really good deal all around, it would have sold long ago.
This "hoard" NEEDS to be recovered by the hobby (ie) major copper dealer(s), and then disbursed back to those collectors who want and need these coins for their collection at reasonable prices for each grade. It will mean taking some risk, but the coin business is full of risks. Let's get this done soon, please. Steve
@coincommando said:
Bet more then half won't cac. Judging by the way the guy is selling them, he probably thought he was a genius too when buying them. Bet every copper coin doc has a sig on a coin or two in this deal.
If this was a really good deal all around, it would have sold long ago.
This "hoard" NEEDS to be recovered by the hobby (ie) major copper dealer(s), and then disbursed back to those collectors who want and need these coins for their collection at reasonable prices for each grade. It will mean taking some risk, but the coin business is full of risks. Let's get this done soon, please. Steve
Getting these coins back to the hobby-industry seems to be up to the seller(s) and not any single dealer or consortium of dealers. The sales price has to be indicative of the quality of the coins and the risk that the buyer(s) will be taking upon purchase. From what little, and I mean very little, we have heard from the possible seller(s), it does not feel like there is an understanding that there must be a viable exit strategy for whomever buys the hoard. Again, I will state that I believe these coins go to the grave with the seller(s) and then we will find them on Heritage.
Tom,
I don't disagree with what you said but a couple of the very best examples of the 1909VDB MPL are in this hoard namely the Jenks example PR67+RB in PCGS and the Childs example PR67RD in ICG. I'm sure some of those PR65 and PR66 coins are worth in the five figures also. I do wonder and fear that in fact these coins DO go to the grave with the seller. I mean he just might be eccentric enough to have buried the hoard already. As the years go by, and if nothing further is heard about the coins, then the value of the then remaining examples of about 100 coins are sure to increase significantly. JMHO. Steve
The population of these coins hasn't increased. 41 have been in the PCGS pop reports and 11 in the NGC census. They are already accounted for. Now if 53 raw ones suddenly appeared that would be a different story.
The new monthly Coin World has an article about the discovery of a NEW 1909VDB MPL that will be auctioned at Baltimore in March. It was discovered in a 2x2 holder as a business strike but PCGS graded it as a PR65RB. VERY INTERESTING, although the Coin World article went into lots of detail about the low mintage of the 1909VDB MPL, the article did NOT include any mention of the fact that there is 53 certified examples in the "hoard". I wonder why this important fact is NOT mentioned? Steve
@Steve said:
The new monthly Coin World has an article about the discovery of a NEW 1909VDB MPL that will be auctioned at Baltimore in March. It was discovered in a 2x2 holder as a business strike but PCGS graded it as a PR65RB. VERY INTERESTING, although the Coin World article went into lots of detail about the low mintage of the 1909VDB MPL, the article did NOT include any mention of the fact that there is 53 certified examples in the "hoard". I wonder why this important fact is NOT mentioned? Steve
Well, I've been doing my part; buying lottery tickets every week...
Seriously though, it seems there is a "VDB hopeful" story every month where someone thinks they've found one. Now if finally has actually happened.
The hoard though, that is another story...
What will happen? I've heard that the holder of the 53 coins is getting up there in years but it seems there hasn't been any word coming from there since the unsuccessful EBay auction attempt over a year ago.
I'm not optimistic about it. It would be awesome if a buying group could be convened to deal with it but the logistics of such a thing just doesn't seem possible. Everyone is understandably involved in their own self interest and I don't see how that type of high level cooperation could work.
What a thing! What I can't wrap my brain around is how the holder of the coins decided to do such an unusual thing and actually carried out buying all those expensive VDB MPL proofs to amass that many of them. There are less than 200 known and he's got at least 25% of them. (I think the number is closer to 150 because of re-submissions so he probably has closer to a third of all the known examples.) There are maybe a couple dozen more seen in auctions over the last couple of decades so that leaves another 75 or so that have been certified and are sitting in private collections. I think there are about a dozen in PCGS registry sets so there are maybe 50-60 out there but with locations unknown. So it is quite obvious that if all of these in the hoard hit the market at once, it would be a major disruption. You just have to hope that doesn't happen.
Comments
To the OP.... I'd be surprised if you don't get 3 ignorant querulous questions for each further clear reply. To dignify such remarks only encourages what we here describe as "TROLLS".
Also, PM to be sent. . . )
<< <i>It's interesting to see so many who have theoretical knowledge of such a grouping and its disposition.
To the OP.... I'd be surprised if you don't get 3 ignorant querulous questions for each further clear reply. To dignify such remarks only encourages what we here describe as "TROLLS".
Also, PM to be sent. . . ) >>
Rick,
If your above comments "To the OP" were meant for me, please explain exactly what you mean. Thanks. Steve
My Complete PROOF Lincoln Cent with Major Varieties(1909-2015)Set Registry
<< <i>It's interesting to see so many who have theoretical knowledge of such a grouping and its disposition.
To the OP.... I'd be surprised if you don't get 3 ignorant querulous questions for each further clear reply. To dignify such remarks only encourages what we here describe as "TROLLS".
Also, PM to be sent. . . ) >>
Bizarre post.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
My eBay Store | My Registry Profile
Welcome to the PCGS coin boards. I note you are from Montana and you chose the Set Registry board to make your first post. You make a good point about the choice the seller of this hoard made to attempt to sell ALL 53 of his 1909VDB matte proof Lincoln cents to ONE potential buyer. Although the seller has approximately 35% of all the existing coins of this variety out there it will probably be VERY difficult for him to find THE person who (1) has the MONEY and (2) who is willing to take the RISK involved in owning this hoard. If you collect Lincoln cents and particularly if you are interested in the 1909 thru 1916 matte proof Lincoln cents (MPL's), I encourage you to read some of the many postings on this subject on this Set Registry board as well as the regular Coin Forum board. Enjoy!
Steve
My Complete PROOF Lincoln Cent with Major Varieties(1909-2015)Set Registry
My eBay Store | My Registry Profile
<< <i>Hi Alan,
Welcome to the PCGS coin boards. I note you are from Montana and you chose the Set Registry board to make your first post. You make a good point about the choice the seller of this hoard made to attempt to sell ALL 53 of his 1909VDB matte proof Lincoln cents to ONE potential buyer. Although the seller has approximately 35% of all the existing coins of this variety out there it will probably be VERY difficult for him to find THE person who (1) has the MONEY and (2) who is willing to take the RISK involved in owning this hoard. If you collect Lincoln cents and particularly if you are interested in the 1909 thru 1916 matte proof Lincoln cents (MPL's), I encourage you to read some of the many postings on this subject on this Set Registry board as well as the regular Coin Forum board. Enjoy!
Steve
Hi Steve, thanks for the welcome. I'm a long time lurker, I've been collecting on and off since 2011. I usually hang out at the NGC boards, but have been reading over here more and more as these boards are more active. Figured it was time to register and start participating. I missed this topic the first time it was posted, but will be watching it now with a lot of interest. Hopefully I can also contribute in the US Coins section as knowledge and opinions permit.
My eBay Store | My Registry Profile
Never mind. Looks like it was fixed two days later.
- Bob -
MPL's - Lincolns of Color
Central Valley Roosevelts
Later, Paul.
From what I just heard, the hoard is still exactly where it was. The owner supposedly still wants to sell them but so far, only as a single lot. (sigh) I also owe the discussion an apology, especially Steve, because I didn't see his earlier suggestion about putting together a "buying syndicate" of interested collectors. So basically I was just repeating an idea already put up. I missed the actual list too! Nevertheless, I still would like to band together with people and try to do this. One thing I thought of in the last few days is; How about getting some dealers involved? If the 20 biggest would commit to 2 coins each, the thing would almost be licked. Anyways, for whatever it is worth; I would definitely put up for a 63, 64 or 65BN. That is about my limit. A man can dream, can't he?
Deefree49, welcome to the boards. It sounds like you have a deep interest in Matte Proof Lincoln cents. This particular issue regarding the 1909VDB MPL's is very interesting to me because the true availability of the coin is limited to about 150 existing certified examples of which 53 are in the "hoard". The other interesting point is that the numismatic media has stayed silent regarding the "hoard" for about a year now. I'm sure the dealer community, and especially those specializing in "copper" are well aware of this situation. The hobby, and particularly collectors are hurt because even if they wanted to purchase an example of the 1909VDB MPL at a reasonable price, only about 100 are currently in the hands of other collectors. This particular "hoarder" gobbled up most of his examples via auction and private transaction during the past several years. There are a number of people on these boards who have an interest in MPL's. Please continue to contribute your thoughts and also check back a few YEARS in this SET REGISTRY forum for various threads on this topic. Steve
I just noticed that they cut-off the Set Registry threads history for only back to January, 2015. We used to have a much longer history available. SAD. Sorry this new FUSETALK version really messes a lot up.
My Complete PROOF Lincoln Cent with Major Varieties(1909-2015)Set Registry
The second that hoard is broken up, prices will crash. There's more coins in that collection than there are collectors of them. Look what happened to the 1864-L proof cents as an example of what I mean
Bruce,
The hoarder, his agent, or his estate would be just plain STUPID to sell those coins piecemeal. In fact, the hobby needs to be diligent to ASSURE that that doesn't happen. In my opinion, you and Laura could do everyone in the hobby and the hobby in general a great service by helping manage the resolution of this issue. While the coin market is currently struggling, the over century history of this particular issue of the first Lincoln cent proof coin minted on July 30, 1909 with 1.503 struck and MANY then destroyed for various reasons, creates a desire by many Lincoln cent collectors to someday own one. Fact is, those lucky enough to currently own one of the 100 or so are NOT rushing to sell. There are enough collectors "out there" to fully subscribe to the 150 or so true 1909VDB MPL's that are left in existence. Steve
My Complete PROOF Lincoln Cent with Major Varieties(1909-2015)Set Registry
I hope to get to know some of the folks here. So far I've met Steve Cohen and Carl Waltz Jr. and both have been very nice and welcoming to me. So I'm working on a Lincoln Matte Proof collection and have acquired everything but the VDB. (what else is new?!) This particular thread is a "no brainer" for me since anyone who lacks that particular coin has an interest in the large 53 coin hoard...the elephant in the room so to speak.
I would like to get to know the other collectors who are interested in the Lincoln matte set and just toss around stuff, share stuff we've learned and would like to learn. It is interesting that there are still unknown or uncertain things about those coins. For instance; 1) how many VDB proofs were actually released? 2) How many 1910 proofs were actually made? The reported number varies from around 2,000 to over 4,000. My opinion, which is really no more than a guess based on the existing population is that about 2,100 were issued. 3) How many 1916's? Flynn says 600 and for the longest time the number was assumed to be 1,050. My opinion, which again is nothing more than a guess based on the existing population is that the number seems to be somewhere between 600 and 800. It is 600 if people were more inclined to save them, knowing the mint was going to no longer issue proofs. (until 1936) and more like 800 if people saved them at about the same rate as the previous years' issues. Well obviously I've given this some thought but it hasn't helped me acquire a VDB yet!
I look forward to hopefully exchanging ideas with the people who contribute to the forum and hopefully making some friends along the way. Thanks to Steve and Carl for the welcome!
Please see the ORIGINAL post in this thread, read ALL comments, and then post your response. Thanks. Steve
My Complete PROOF Lincoln Cent with Major Varieties(1909-2015)Set Registry
I've been reading this thread since its inception and finally decided to post since it was brought to the top today. Simply put, the handling of this coin has determined it to be a loser's game all around. There are several reasons for this-
1) The sequestered supply represents approximately 50% of the total coins that are held by others, which is an enormous percent of product to hang over the market.
2) While many folks would love to own a 1909 VDB MPL, the fact is that the cost basis of this single coin is likely to drive away a large portion (a majority?) of those who collect the rest of the MPL series.
3) One thing not mentioned in this thread, as far as I can tell, is that most MPLs are, to put it bluntly; dogs. The coins don't necessarily look nice and many shouldn't, in my opinion, see the inside of a problem-free holder. This means that in order for the hoard to be absorbed many, many folks will have to pay deep dollars for sub-par pieces. This is not easily likely, in my opinion.
4) MPLs are generally a severely limited, niche market without the flashy good looks that many collectors prefer in brilliant proof coinage.
5) Communication of details and images appears to be lacking, which does not typically help facilitate a transaction at market value.
6) I don't know what it would take for a price to be accepted, but my gut, which has been entirely wrong on more than one occasion, is telling me that the owner(s) is/are not looking to take a haircut on the deal.
7) Whoever buys this lot will now have to place 50+ coins quickly because the value of these pieces is almost certain drop given that the major buyer of the product has withdrawn and, therefore, will not be there to either soak up excess inventory or prop up flagging bid prices. The longer coins hang around, the softer prices will be.
From where I stand, if major details do not change then this hoard goes to the grave with the owner(s) and then the heirs will deal with it accordingly in order to extract the value left. I would prefer to wait for the heirs to liquidate in an orderly fashion than to take on the myriad problems associated with a publicized, aborted sale.
Of course, if the sale has already gone through then I a may be mightily off the mark.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
I hate to be cynical, but are we even certain that this hoard exists? And that they are VDB proofs and that they're genuine? Has anyone other than this Paul guy (who claims he is neither a collector nor a numismatist) verified their existence or authenticity?
It would be a matter of a phone call to get Legend/Stacks/HA in on this - or even PCGS - to at least verify their existence and get some press on it.
I'm dubious of the whole affair. It appears the seller isn't very interested in selling. If I wanted to create a sensational story and stir the pot, so-to-speak, in the numismatic world, here is what I would do:
1. Claim to have a majority rarity or hoard of rarities
2. Have an unknown person represent the hoard.
3. Not contact any of the major auction houses or grading services to confirm the authenticity of the hoard.
4. Don't have an asking price for the hoard.
5. Don't provide any images of the hoard.
5. Go into hiding for 2 years.
Does this raise any flags for anyone else or am I alone here?
Check out my iPhone app SlabReader!
Tom,
I've followed your comments on the forums for many years and I do respect what you say. As regards your points #3, #4, and #5 I believe you are referring to all MPL's and not just the 1909VDB MPL. I feel strongly that a collector of Lincoln MPL's makes a major distinction between the eight 1909 thru 1916 MPL's and the 1909VDB. I agree that many of the MPL's are not pretty, but I also believe that if a collector has the opportunity to own a true 1909VDB at a fair price the collector would have less concern about the looks of the coin and more interest in the rarity. While 150 examples may seem a lot, the fact is that the 100 or so NOT in the hoard are in the hands of collectors who really appreciate the coin's rarity. It is true that specialty dealers in copper coins can provide a potential buyer a 1909 thru 1916 MPL fairly easily and quickly. There are many on the market and available right now. I believe there are virtually no 1909VDB MPL's for sale directly from dealers today. Only thru auctions. That is why I think it is important for the hobby dealers to get together and resolve this hoard issue. The coins the hoarder owns, all in PCGS, NGC and one other slab have value, some worth many thousands each. This "story" should not be a secret. It should be resolved. It represents 35% of the coins currently in existence.
Steve
My Complete PROOF Lincoln Cent with Major Varieties(1909-2015)Set Registry
I find MPLs interesting to collect and even preferable to "brilliant" proof cents. I have to disagree about most of them being "dogs". What you generally see for sale on EBay and elsewhere are the less attractive coins that folks are trying to rid themselves of. These visible coins are the ones people no longer want or never wanted and acquired in trade or other market circumstance.
The BEST coins are being HELD and are much less likely to even be seen by anyone. The finest examples are available for viewing on Coin Facts and more can be found by looking at images in the Registry sets of folks who purposefully collect them. Look at the complete or near complete collections to see some amazingly beautiful coins. Some MPLs are so striking they have even been given names, such as "The Greenie", a 1912 currently for sale by Rick Snow at Eagle Eye.
There are a handful of coin dealers who specialize in matte proof Lincolns. Very attractive pieces can be seen at their sites as well and seeing these will illustrate how the best mattes can be so captivating and appealing to those who collect them.
As far as the hoard, that is a sticky problem, but the amount in the hoard is not 50% of the known population. It is closer to 25%. Sure that is a significant percentage but not nearly as impactful as 50% would be if they were made available at once.
1) If the owner (or their heir) dumps them on the market all at once, it will obviously be a disaster for prices and for those who already hold one.
2) If they are bought by a smart collector, they would allow them to reach the market very slowly. A strategy of offering them at a rate of about 6 a year shouldn't affect the market greatly one way or the other.
3) If a buying group manages to assemble themselves, organize and purchase the hoard, then I couldn't say what would happen but it probably would lead to some mild price depression. Yet perhaps a reawakening of collector interest might be created by this scenario which could result in a counterbalance to any pressure on the market. If such a group made some rules or a charter outlining how to divest the coins, an optimal situation could occur where those who want a coin can get a coin and the prices stay relatively stable. This is an extreme long shot though. How do you control a group of crazy coin collectors?!
One more comment about "dogs". There are at least 2 VDB examples for sale currently on collectors.com. Both are quite striking in appearance and extremely attractive. Andy Skrabalak of Angel Dee's has a very fine piece for sale currently. I would give eye teeth to own any one of these three. If you want to label a particular coin as a "dog", how about the 1922 no D Lincoln Cent? Here's a coin that is scarce but not truly rare (see population reports) and in choice condition can amass as much as a VDB proof. I would take any MPL over your typical 1922 no D in VF or XF condition and say the MPL will be the far more attractive coin in every case. My point is that collectors are unpredictable and be careful about disparaging any series of coins as "dogs" or "generally uncollectible".
deefree49 you might not know me and that is fine, but I think at least part of your post is in response to mine so I will address two points. Prior to that, I'll mention that I'm quite happy you adore these coins since I also think they are fascinating and represent an area that not everyone takes the time to examine. I'm also glad to read your posts because they show quite a bit of passion and that is sometimes missing in this field. I wish you good fortune with your acquisitions.
I first started searching for and buying and selling quality MPLs in the 1990s, which means that I have spent approximately two decades examining the offerings in auctions, finding the coins in dealer inventories on the bourse, buying wonderful examples and placing them with collectors. In fact, more than a few of the pieces that folks look at and say "wow" about were handled by me prior to being placed in their current homes. I also know the Skrabalaks very well and am familiar with the fine coins they attempt to carry. Additionally, I have a pretty fair eye for surface manipulation, both past and present, and when detected generally earns the coin the dog status. When I wrote that so many are dogs it is because quite a few are dogs. I've seen both ends of the spectrum of this niche market for a long time and there are a fair number of coins that are just, well...
The 50% number I used in my post was taken from Steve who has repeatedly written in this thread that there are likely around 150-extant 1909 VDB MPLs and that the hoard contains approximately 50-examples. If this is true or fairly accurate, and I see no reason to debate this point since it is not only minor, but I haven't studied the numbers, then 50-coins might be in the hoard and 100-coins might be in the greater numismatic pool (150-extant examples minus 50-coins in the hoard). This would mean that the sequestered supply would represent approximately 50% of the supply owned by others (50-hoard coins divided by 100-coins owned by the greater numismatic pool). If you think the number is closer to 25% then that is fine, too, and I have no issue with it whatsoever. I just wanted to clear up where I got that 50% value from in case it was not evident.
Regardless, I don't know if I would label a collector as "smart" if he/she had to invest likely somewhere in the seven-figures to obtain a hoard that would then require around nine years to disperse with careful planning and execution in the hope of simply breaking even. Awfully well off; certainly. Awfully altruistic; possibly. Awfully smart; no.
Good luck to all in their pursuit of these and other coins. It's a great hobby with lots of interesting corners, wonderful trivia, loads of history and seemingly endless theoretical discussions.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
Hi Tom
Wow that was a very thoughtful response. Thank you for taking the time to write and be patient with me. You know looking back at what I wrote and thinking back on it, I was being a little defensive there. You are right that I am passionate about MPLs, and coins in general and sometimes I do get a little excited about all of it. Regarding the 50% thing, that really isn't an issue with me either. I'm really just hoping the market doesn't collapse because of that hoard. Unfortunately, the likely end will be all of them dumped at Heritage or Legend and all at once. That would be a disaster for the market on VDB proofs and might also bleed over to the other matte proofs too.
Regarding "dogs", again I admit to being a bit defensive there. Yet I do still feel there are some real pieces of numismatic art out there. You do make a vital point though and it is one that I'm sadly becoming more aware with as time goes on. That is obviously the coin doctors and the deep questions raised by the possibility of manipulating the appearance of a piece. We are talking about substantial money here. While I don't have a lot of experience with this, I've now been around long enough to know "stuff" happens to coins. It has been done well enough to fool the graders and that alone is chilling. We initially put so much faith in the third party grading and then to come to realize that faith might be misplaced can be very discouraging. It is no surprise that the result of this can make one cynical. I also can see that you have a lot of experience with coins and matte proofs, certainly a lot more than I have! So I appreciate you taking the time to share a bit of your experience with me. It helps create more perspective and illustrates that you have to keep your mind open as well as your eyes.
So far, my passion for collecting has overshadowed my disappointments but it is a problem going forward. I guess you have to be smart, tough and careful and not just trust a number that a third party grader has put on a plastic slab. I've also tried to establish a good relationship with a dealer I can trust. I know dealers have to be able to profit but they are definitely not all equal. I've found Andy at Angel Dee's to be special. He treats me more like a friend than a customer and I just feel lucky to have an ongoing customer/dealer relationship with him.
Thanks for writing and answering and I hope we meet again on these boards and who knows...perhaps at a show somewhere.
Thank you for the reply.
I have the tendency to write in a very dry, matter of fact way and this can make it quite difficult for the reader to understand or infer my tone (no pun intended). It's just the way I communicate. I took no offense to anything you wrote and assumed that you simply thought I might be tearing down the coin or the niche without really having much knowledge in the area, which would have been a fair assumption on your part given I don't write much on the boards about MPLs.
I adore MPLs and have handled many examples of each issue, save the VDB, but have been largely quiet in this area for at least five or six years and that has been due to the lack of material that I liked and that I could place rather than a lack of interest on my part. I hope this hoard gets disbursed in an efficient, meaningful way that helps those in the community acquire an example to their liking at a fair price. It just seems like that is an awfully thin tightrope for the seller to walk while also keeping his/her financial interests in place.
Good luck with the coins and continue to support and speak with the Skrabalaks; they have seen more than all but a few in this niche and they are folks who will tell it like it is if you really want to know the truth.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
I've been following this story myself for a number of years. Yes I love Matte Proof Lincolns, but probably cannot afford a VDB. In any case, I am just having a hard time understanding why the owner wouldnt get the entire hoard 1.) crossed to PCGS (which would provide level-playing field grading), then 2.) professionally TrueView photographed (to get them imaged and cataloged in CoinFacts), then 3.) sell a few a year using a high end auction house over a multiyear period. That just seems like the logical way to go about it.
I do know this 50+ coin hoard was offered on eBay with a min bid of $1,000,000 a few years ago -- I was watching it -- and nobody bid! I think buying 50 of these all at once kind of a risky proposition -- you would need to be prepared to have them in your inventory for years (and/or prepared to take a bath on the prices).
I kind of agree with the poster above that said we probably need to wait for the owner to pass, then have his heirs liquidate these in a more logical (hopefully) manner.
I did have a (perhaps crazy) passing thought -- I wonder if the owner is as eccentric as he seems to be -- is there is a non-trivial chance that these might get "buried in a wall" (a metaphor) somewhere and lost (eventually) -- which would make any existing MPL (already in private hands) that much more rare and valuable. Ahh the stuff of coin lore. If a 1913 Liberty Nickel can get lost for 50 years, why not a roll of VDB MPLs. That would make for a very significant drop in the field population.
Me personally, I am not holding my breath on seeing these sold off. I think it's a years away proposition -- if ever.
My Coin Blog
My Toned Lincoln Registry Set
My Complete PROOF Lincoln Cent with Major Varieties(1909-2015)Set Registry
What a thing! Thanks Steve for reposting that. It really does help and if I can even say this, "wrap your brain around what's there". It is so weird that someone decided to collect these with such dogged determination and I have long thought about what might eventually happen with these coins.
To acquire a single VDB proof is a significant undertaking as Winged Liberty said. It is beyond the budget of most collectors and so for most of us is just something to speculate about. So the concept of a single party trying to buy all 53 of them would be truly nearing the level of impossible. You would need someone with the means, coin knowledge and desire to own and deal with them and I wonder if that combination actually exists in anyone at all. The reality of organizing a "VDB Hoard Purchasing Syndicate" is very remote but as I offered a year ago, it would be something I'd consider joining. In the meantime, all interested parties can just watch and wait.
Amazing Guide Price is 2.4 million.
Yet nobody put in the minimum bid of 1 million when the 53-coin hoard was offered on eBay in April 2015.
if you subtract out $200k (which is pcgs guide price) for the monster PR67+RB ...
that leaves $800k for the remaining 52 coins ,,,
That's an average of $15,385 per coin for the remaining 52.
And nobody was biting.
That says volumes about this situation
Here is a screen capture of the ebay auction, soon after it ended with 0 bidders.
My Coin Blog
My Toned Lincoln Registry Set
What has happened to prices of MPL's since the news of the hoard was released publicly?
Later, Paul.
The $1 million price was not real in that "auction" listing. There was a reserve price that was more than double the initial bid.
Michael Kittle Rare Coins --- 1908-S Indian Head Cent Grading Set --- No. 1 1909 Mint Set --- Kittlecoins on Facebook --- Long Beach Table 448
What has happened to prices of MPL's since the news of the hoard was released publicly?
From what I can tell, just about nothing changed. Actually the VDB prices have remained generally stable while the other matte proofs have gone through some minor variations. The recent Wright sale of red matte proofs did affect the highest price category of each date including the VDB highest red price. Otherwise, there has been practically no movement in the rest of the VDB prices. Brown and Red-Brown and all the grades have been quite without any movement for awhile.
The most knowledgeable people that I've heard speak about this hoard think the worst situation would be putting them all up at once in a single auction. I think we all can figure the result would be a very drastic reduction in value. I think it would even put a chill on the sale itself. Most potential buyers would be in "watch and wait" mode and prices would likely drag. Hopefully anyone who does try to sell these is aware of that and would strongly avoid taking that road.
It is my understanding that the Ebay auction above which showed a STARTING bid of $1,000,000 did NOT imply that the seller would accept such a bid as the final offer. I believe key active and potential acquirers of this hoard have had contact with the person who was managing the Ebay auction and have come to the conclusion that a "deal" was not possible. I believe the fact that this hoard continues to remain a "secret" to any reporting in the numismatic press troubles me. I wonder if it is felt that potential publicity in coin stories would enhance the seller's position in regards to sale. JMHO. Steve
My Complete PROOF Lincoln Cent with Major Varieties(1909-2015)Set Registry
Thanks for the added info on the reserve. I had no idea there was something hidden in that auction in terms of the reserve. I wonder why the ebay auction said "starting bid 1,000,000" when in fact the starting bid was over 2,000,000 ? Why wouldnt the ebay ad have actually said starting bid 2,000,000 or reserve price 2,000,000. So that was a "fake starting bid" listed. Boy that is bizarre.
My Coin Blog
My Toned Lincoln Registry Set
A dealer with deep pockets should make a phone call, or visit in person at a National show perhaps to view all 53 MPL's and make a 1x bid. They could pick it up, and put all 53 in their online inventory at set prices and first come first served.
Eventually they would all sell.
Maybe Wonderwallet, I mean Wondercoin could jump in.
Later, Paul.
Nobody - repeat - nobody is going to buy this hoard. Maybe for 25 cents on the dollar (see my standing offer).
That eBay seller theosixx has no coin selling history, seems to be a contact... the language in the listing seemed like they were trying to make a contact for off eBay sale.
Even though the experts are saying it would be a 'bad' deal as prices will crash, I could see them being a nice retirement program for someone with a sale of 2-3 per year.
I doubt the market would crash. 41 of these are already in the PCGS pop reports.
- Bob -
MPL's - Lincolns of Color
Central Valley Roosevelts
This "hoard" NEEDS to be recovered by the hobby (ie) major copper dealer(s), and then disbursed back to those collectors who want and need these coins for their collection at reasonable prices for each grade. It will mean taking some risk, but the coin business is full of risks. Let's get this done soon, please. Steve
My Complete PROOF Lincoln Cent with Major Varieties(1909-2015)Set Registry
Getting these coins back to the hobby-industry seems to be up to the seller(s) and not any single dealer or consortium of dealers. The sales price has to be indicative of the quality of the coins and the risk that the buyer(s) will be taking upon purchase. From what little, and I mean very little, we have heard from the possible seller(s), it does not feel like there is an understanding that there must be a viable exit strategy for whomever buys the hoard. Again, I will state that I believe these coins go to the grave with the seller(s) and then we will find them on Heritage.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
Tom,
I don't disagree with what you said but a couple of the very best examples of the 1909VDB MPL are in this hoard namely the Jenks example PR67+RB in PCGS and the Childs example PR67RD in ICG. I'm sure some of those PR65 and PR66 coins are worth in the five figures also. I do wonder and fear that in fact these coins DO go to the grave with the seller. I mean he just might be eccentric enough to have buried the hoard already. As the years go by, and if nothing further is heard about the coins, then the value of the then remaining examples of about 100 coins are sure to increase significantly. JMHO. Steve
My Complete PROOF Lincoln Cent with Major Varieties(1909-2015)Set Registry
Or won't fall as dramatically...
Bruce,
I think we both can agree. It will be a question of supply and demand.
Steve
My Complete PROOF Lincoln Cent with Major Varieties(1909-2015)Set Registry
It's like the 1933 $20s....the fact there are another ten coins known to be there has impacted the value of the one.
The population of these coins hasn't increased. 41 have been in the PCGS pop reports and 11 in the NGC census. They are already accounted for. Now if 53 raw ones suddenly appeared that would be a different story.
- Bob -
MPL's - Lincolns of Color
Central Valley Roosevelts
The new monthly Coin World has an article about the discovery of a NEW 1909VDB MPL that will be auctioned at Baltimore in March. It was discovered in a 2x2 holder as a business strike but PCGS graded it as a PR65RB. VERY INTERESTING, although the Coin World article went into lots of detail about the low mintage of the 1909VDB MPL, the article did NOT include any mention of the fact that there is 53 certified examples in the "hoard". I wonder why this
important fact is NOT mentioned? Steve 
My Complete PROOF Lincoln Cent with Major Varieties(1909-2015)Set Registry
It was actually graded PR66RB. There is a thread on CoinFacts on this coin that started last November while the coin was still raw. It is a pretty interesting read.
https://www.cointalk.com/threads/1909-vdb-matte-proof.286197/
- Bob -
MPL's - Lincolns of Color
Central Valley Roosevelts
Well, I've been doing my part; buying lottery tickets every week...
Seriously though, it seems there is a "VDB hopeful" story every month where someone thinks they've found one. Now if finally has actually happened.
The hoard though, that is another story...
What will happen? I've heard that the holder of the 53 coins is getting up there in years but it seems there hasn't been any word coming from there since the unsuccessful EBay auction attempt over a year ago.
I'm not optimistic about it. It would be awesome if a buying group could be convened to deal with it but the logistics of such a thing just doesn't seem possible. Everyone is understandably involved in their own self interest and I don't see how that type of high level cooperation could work.
What a thing! What I can't wrap my brain around is how the holder of the coins decided to do such an unusual thing and actually carried out buying all those expensive VDB MPL proofs to amass that many of them. There are less than 200 known and he's got at least 25% of them. (I think the number is closer to 150 because of re-submissions so he probably has closer to a third of all the known examples.) There are maybe a couple dozen more seen in auctions over the last couple of decades so that leaves another 75 or so that have been certified and are sitting in private collections. I think there are about a dozen in PCGS registry sets so there are maybe 50-60 out there but with locations unknown. So it is quite obvious that if all of these in the hoard hit the market at once, it would be a major disruption. You just have to hope that doesn't happen.
Unfortunately for Lincoln Cent Collectors this is a dead issue until the owner(s) come forward and actually say something.
Later, Paul.
Bumping for updates