If you want the stock market to drop, then you need to start praying for even lower rates, not higher.
I don't want stocks to drop, but I'd like to see them fairly valued, based on fundamentals.
That being said, the drop in a stock market such as this, with rates already low and possibly heading lower - only speaks to how over-pumped with QE money the market has been.
If, and when rates go up it should be in response to increased business activity and increased business investment. If rates were allowed to rise now, the business environment would get demonstrably ugly.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
The 5 wave expanded wedge pattern since June is a classic. It was projecting to SPY of 188. And that's already been exceeded. A 2nd smaller mid-September expanding wedge only added emphasis before the main drop projecting an initial move down to 190. Empire State Mfg index coming in at 6 today vice the expected 20 was the event that apparently triggered the 8:30 am dump.
GDX managed to linger around for 12 months following the initial high. That could take the S&P into fall 2015 before the final reckoning. The Dow has a 15 yr expanding wedge currently in play as well....it's either Dow 30,000 or Dow <10,000.
<< <i>I like how the MSM is focusing on the ebola scare in the U.S. as the cause of the Dow plunge and not the withdraw of QE by the Fed. >>
It's neither ... just a much anticipated and overdue correction. No conspiracy or mass manipulation. It just needed a catalyst to get it of the ground and it appears to be the EU & China.
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
<< <i>I like how the MSM is focusing on the ebola scare in the U.S. as the cause of the Dow plunge and not the withdraw of QE by the Fed. >>
Yesterday on CNBC's "Mad Money" Jim Cramer posted 10 things needed before stocks stabilize/move higher - QE and ZIRP were not even mentioned.
Just 2 years ago he had a segment describing the equity markets as "Extremely overbought". Haven't heard that line for a long time. Jim knows who writes his checks. He didn't become a multi-millionaire by biting the hand that feeds him.
<< <i>I like how the MSM is focusing on the ebola scare in the U.S. as the cause of the Dow plunge and not the withdraw of QE by the Fed. >>
It's neither ... just a much anticipated and overdue correction. No conspiracy or mass manipulation. It just needed a catalyst to get it of the ground and it appears to be the EU & China. >>
Zactly. Market had been running out of buyers for a few months. DOW 15,500 is likely target. Then probably another year in that trading range (15,000 to 17,000) until investors decide on whether TSHTF or TTM (to the moon).
<< <i>Stocks were manipulated up. Reality is bringing them down. >>
So were gold and silver before that? Oh, no, wait, it was reality that was bringing gold and silver up, and manipulation that brought them down, right?
<< <i>Stocks were manipulated up. Reality is bringing them down. >>
So were gold and silver before that? Oh, no, wait, it was reality that was bringing gold and silver up, and manipulation that brought them down, right? >>
PM prices are nothing more than a reflection of confidence in the economy. Right now that confidence is high, right? Think it can hold?
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
<< <i>Stocks were manipulated up. Reality is bringing them down. >>
So were gold and silver before that? Oh, no, wait, it was reality that was bringing gold and silver up, and manipulation that brought them down, right? >>
PM prices are nothing more than a reflection of confidence in the economy. Right now that confidence is high, right? Think it can hold? >>
China is the world's largest gold producer, does not export it, and continues to buy record amounts of gold from the west. China wants and foresees high gold prices. Follow their lead.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
<< <i>China is the world's largest gold producer, does not export it, and continues to buy record amounts of gold from the west. China wants and foresees high gold prices. Follow their lead. >>
So, China has been supporting the market price for gold from going even lower since peaking in 2011? What will happen when they slow or stop buying? What about when they sell?
<< <i>China is the world's largest gold producer, does not export it, and continues to buy record amounts of gold from the west. China wants and foresees high gold prices. Follow their lead. >>
So, China has been supporting the market price for gold from going even lower since peaking in 2011? What will happen when they slow or stop buying? What about when they sell? >>
What about when they get to set the price where they want it?
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
You seem to think the addition of the Chinese Yuan to the basket would make the dollar weaker. Could you explain whyyou think that, or am I just misguided (as usual, lol).
Only a monopoly can "set" the price for something, as the monopoly will be the ONLY source.
Very few entities in an Aggregate market can even "move" the price, and once "They" do move the price, the rest of the market participants respond by altering their demand and price
<< <i>You seem to think the addition of the Chinese Yuan to the basket would make the dollar weaker. Could you explain whyyou think that, or am I just misguided (as usual, lol). >>
The addition of the Yuan to the basket will do two important things: It will give strength to the Yuan, at a cost to the dollar (and other basket currencies). More importantly it will give legs to the gold price, particularly if the Yuan gets some backing from all the gold China has been hoarding. I believe this backing is in the cards to add credibility to China's desire to have the Yuan included in the basket.
China wants their currency on the world stage. As the second (or first?) largest world economy it is a reasonable request.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
I think the addition of the Yuan would weaken the global importance of the Euro and Yen. Since those currencies are nearly 3/4 the basket, the dollar would actually benefit.
No doubt China is clamoring for recognition, but having a billion man slave labor force is not going to cut it. China is at least a generation from being a dominant player. First they must fail.
<< <i>China wants their currency on the world stage. As the second (or first?) largest world economy it is a reasonable request.
Then why do they peg and otherwise fix the exchange rate instead of letting it float? >>
Maybe that's why they're hoarding gold. Unlike our FED we will not know what China is going to do until they do it. Don't get much jawboning out of them.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
"For 17 consecutive quarters central banks have been net buyers of gold. 2014 saw central banks buying 477.2 tonnes of gold - the second highest volume in 50 years, second only to 2012. Western central banks are seeking to bolster their currencies by securing their gold reserves as the end game of unpayable gargantuan debt approaches."
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
<< <i>Maybe China accumulates gold because it has no confidence in its own currency. >>
China accumulates gold because it wants a seat at the big table. Having Yuan added to IMF SDR basket come October will do the trick. >>
Oh yeah, 2015, every 5 years there's a rebalancing of the "basket." This rebalance could be significant for China. I wonder what the percentage per country outcome will be this time around.
Without an end to the economic world as we know it, the two won't bust at the same time, they are viewed as hedges against each other. If all the money runs from both of them, PMs will shine like the sun in a world of economic/social darkness.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
Comments
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I don't want stocks to drop, but I'd like to see them fairly valued, based on fundamentals.
That being said, the drop in a stock market such as this, with rates already low and possibly heading lower - only speaks to how over-pumped with QE money the market has been.
If, and when rates go up it should be in response to increased business activity and increased business investment. If rates were allowed to rise now, the business environment would get demonstrably ugly.
I knew it would happen.
They are.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>but I'd like to see them fairly valued, based on fundamentals.
They are. >>
Best part about markets is we each get to value assets individually.
Smart folks make the money......less smart tend to lose money.
Menomonee Falls Wisconsin USA
http://www.pcgs.com/SetRegistr...dset.aspx?s=68269&ac=1">Musky 1861 Mint Set
The 5 wave expanded wedge pattern since June is a classic. It was projecting to SPY of 188. And that's already been exceeded. A 2nd smaller mid-September expanding wedge only added emphasis before the main drop projecting an initial move down to 190. Empire State Mfg index coming in at 6 today vice the expected 20 was the event that apparently triggered the 8:30 am dump.
On a weekly basis the selling is pretty overdone. But there are some huge divergences in play now.
Speaking of expanding wedges. GDX put in a 9 month one from Dec 2010-Sept 2011. Didn't work out so good.
GDX managed to linger around for 12 months following the initial high. That could take the S&P into fall 2015 before the final reckoning. The Dow has a 15 yr expanding wedge currently in play as well....it's either Dow 30,000 or Dow <10,000.
<< <i>
<< <i>but I'd like to see them fairly valued, based on fundamentals.
They are. >>
Best part about markets is we each get to value assets individually.
Smart folks make the money......less smart tend to lose money. >>
Logical and rational folks make money. Paranoid and emotional folks lose money.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Box of 20
<< <i>I like how the MSM is focusing on the ebola scare in the U.S. as the cause of the Dow plunge and not the withdraw of QE by the Fed. >>
It's neither ... just a much anticipated and overdue correction. No conspiracy or mass manipulation. It just needed a catalyst to get it of the ground and it appears to be the EU & China.
<< <i>I like how the MSM is focusing on the ebola scare in the U.S. as the cause of the Dow plunge and not the withdraw of QE by the Fed. >>
Yesterday on CNBC's "Mad Money" Jim Cramer posted 10 things needed before stocks stabilize/move higher - QE and ZIRP were not even mentioned.
Just 2 years ago he had a segment describing the equity markets as "Extremely overbought". Haven't heard that line for a long time. Jim knows who writes his checks. He didn't become a multi-millionaire by biting the hand that feeds him.
<< <i>
<< <i>I like how the MSM is focusing on the ebola scare in the U.S. as the cause of the Dow plunge and not the withdraw of QE by the Fed. >>
It's neither ... just a much anticipated and overdue correction. No conspiracy or mass manipulation. It just needed a catalyst to get it of the ground and it appears to be the EU & China. >>
Zactly. Market had been running out of buyers for a few months. DOW 15,500 is likely target. Then probably another year in that trading range (15,000 to 17,000) until investors decide on whether TSHTF or TTM (to the moon).
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
<< <i>Stocks were manipulated up. Reality is bringing them down. >>
So were gold and silver before that? Oh, no, wait, it was reality that was bringing gold and silver up, and manipulation that brought them down, right?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>
<< <i>Stocks were manipulated up. Reality is bringing them down. >>
So were gold and silver before that? Oh, no, wait, it was reality that was bringing gold and silver up, and manipulation that brought them down, right? >>
PM prices are nothing more than a reflection of confidence in the economy. Right now that confidence is high, right? Think it can hold?
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Stocks were manipulated up. Reality is bringing them down. >>
So were gold and silver before that? Oh, no, wait, it was reality that was bringing gold and silver up, and manipulation that brought them down, right? >>
PM prices are nothing more than a reflection of confidence in the economy. Right now that confidence is high, right? Think it can hold? >>
Ah, I think confidence was high at gold $300...
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Once again, it's getting to be time to"sell in May and go away"
The question is to sell what?
<< <i>
<< <i>Once again, it's getting to be time to"sell in May and go away"
The question is to sell what? >>
apparently the mint got the memo and its all the 2015 first spouses...
BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
Box of 20
However, don't what to join the chorus of those who shout it every day, and when it finally happens, they say "See? Seee?!? I was right all along"
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
<< <i>October. IMF re-evaluates SDR currency basket make-up twice a decade. This time China wants in. >>
That would be awesome.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
<< <i>China is the world's largest gold producer, does not export it, and continues to buy record amounts of gold from the west. China wants and foresees high gold prices. Follow their lead. >>
So, China has been supporting the market price for gold from going even lower since peaking in 2011? What will happen when they slow or stop buying? What about when they sell?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>
<< <i>China is the world's largest gold producer, does not export it, and continues to buy record amounts of gold from the west. China wants and foresees high gold prices. Follow their lead. >>
So, China has been supporting the market price for gold from going even lower since peaking in 2011? What will happen when they slow or stop buying? What about when they sell? >>
What about when they get to set the price where they want it?
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Markets set prices, not China, Bernanke, JPM, or cohodk (LOL). >>
or the Hunt brothers.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
<< <i>
<< <i>Markets set prices, not China, Bernanke, JPM, or cohodk (LOL). >>
or the Hunt brothers.
Its quite obvious the market set prices not the Hunts.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Markets set prices, not China, Bernanke, JPM, or cohodk (LOL). >>
or the Hunt brothers.
Its quite obvious the market set prices not the Hunts. >>
Buyers and sellers (including the Hunt Bros., China and cohodk) set prices, they are the market.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
You seem to think the addition of the Chinese Yuan to the basket would make the dollar weaker. Could you explain whyyou think that, or am I just misguided (as usual, lol).
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Very few entities in an Aggregate market can even "move" the price, and once "They" do move the price, the rest of the market participants respond by altering their demand and price
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>You seem to think the addition of the Chinese Yuan to the basket would make the dollar weaker. Could you explain whyyou think that, or am I just misguided (as usual, lol). >>
The addition of the Yuan to the basket will do two important things: It will give strength to the Yuan, at a cost to the dollar (and other basket currencies). More importantly it will give legs to the gold price, particularly if the Yuan gets some backing from all the gold China has been hoarding. I believe this backing is in the cards to add credibility to China's desire to have the Yuan included in the basket.
China wants their currency on the world stage. As the second (or first?) largest world economy it is a reasonable request.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
Then why do they peg and otherwise fix the exchange rate instead of letting it float?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
No doubt China is clamoring for recognition, but having a billion man slave labor force is not going to cut it. China is at least a generation from being a dominant player. First they must fail.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>China wants their currency on the world stage. As the second (or first?) largest world economy it is a reasonable request.
Then why do they peg and otherwise fix the exchange rate instead of letting it float? >>
Maybe that's why they're hoarding gold. Unlike our FED we will not know what China is going to do until they do it. Don't get much jawboning out of them.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Maybe China accumulates gold because it has no confidence in its own currency. >>
China accumulates gold because it wants a seat at the big table. Having Yuan added to IMF SDR basket come October will do the trick.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
"For 17 consecutive quarters central banks have been net buyers of gold. 2014 saw central banks buying 477.2 tonnes of gold - the second highest volume in 50 years, second only to 2012. Western central banks are seeking to bolster their currencies by securing their gold reserves as the end game of unpayable gargantuan debt approaches."
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>And how severe would that "bust" be? 2%, 5%, 20%, 36d%, 50%? >>
36d
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
<< <i>
<< <i>Maybe China accumulates gold because it has no confidence in its own currency. >>
China accumulates gold because it wants a seat at the big table. Having Yuan added to IMF SDR basket come October will do the trick. >>
Oh yeah, 2015, every 5 years there's a rebalancing of the "basket." This rebalance could be significant for China. I wonder what the percentage per country outcome will be this time around.
Menomonee Falls Wisconsin USA
http://www.pcgs.com/SetRegistr...dset.aspx?s=68269&ac=1">Musky 1861 Mint Set
<< <i>
<< <i>And how severe would that "bust" be? 2%, 5%, 20%, 36d%, 50%? >>
36d >>
My favorite!!! You see, you aint that different from me.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
a result of something that isn't being mentioned today.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.