I can relate to this debate as in the game of golf. What I mean is that:
There are many ways to play the game of golf & enjoy it. Some people like to take a long at least 1 sixpack, maybe a bottle of bourbon and just cruise around in the cart, laughing it up at their bad shots, just general BS-ing & have a great time.
Others enjoy walking 18 holes for the exercise, playing very quickly, taking a little pride in themselves hitting a good shot. To them, that is very enjoyable.
For others, it is purely a social event or a business opportunity. Their main focus is communicating to others in their foursome.
Than there are the players who work hard & practice at their game. The better they score or play, the more fun it is to them.
And of course, there is the professional. He takes the game to another level, the fact that he is so good is very enjoyable to them.
Now the point is that the person that enjoys working on their game & seeing the results of that hard work payoff, would have no fun at all playing with a bunch of drunks. As would the guys that have fun & have a couple of drinks would have no fun playing with a professional that would want them to be quiet as he concentrates & hits shots. The social event players would have no fun being serious about their game, and on and on......
All of these golfers are having their own fun and enjoyment from the game, but just in different ways, and that is fine. What is not fine, is for one type of golfer to ridicule another type for the way they enjoy the game. To each his own! just as in the card collecting hobby, there are vintage collectors, unopened material collectors, modern day collectors, autograph collectors, game used memorabilia collectors, etc.....
To not recognize and respect a different category is very narrow minded.
Just on a personal note, I am the golfer who enjoys working & practicing on my game & when I play I am on the serious side. That is how I enjoy the game. My buddy is more of a social butterfly and that is fine, except when he starts telling me I am taking the game too serious. That just aggravates the tar out of me because that is what makes it fun to me. I would rather commit suicide than play like him, hitting bad shot after bad shot & just laughing it off!!!
I'm sure this angle has been discussed before, but here is my theory regarding unopened.
In many other hobbies the desired piece is the piece that is exactly as it came from the factory. The most obvious example would be toys. The holy grails are the unopened pieces with mint boxes. The contents inside are worth a fraction of the unopened piece. This trend can be seen in just about every collectible. Even clothes and shoes, if it has the tags, its worth much more.
I think this trend is just now catching full steam in cards. It no longer matters whats inside the packs and whether the cards inside are equal to the price of the pack. What matters is the pack itself and how rare is that specific pack.
<< <i>Since then I bought the following wax boxes:
(2) 1980 Topps Baseball (2) 1981 Topps Football (2) 1984 Topps Football (2) 1986 Topps Football
My next box is a 1986/87 Fleer Basketball box. Just spoke to Steve and he sold his last box for $25,000. Anyone that has a MINT BOX BBCE sealed 1986/87 Fleer Basketball box, I'm your guy... >>
I love every box you mentioned. Clean unopened boxes display incredibly well with some PSA graded cards from the same years. I like throwing a few loose packs into the mix as well. Mile High is supposed to have an 86-87 Fleer box in their next auction but I recommend staying away. Highly recommend staying away.
So I have a chance to win it.
In all honesty, I expect this particular box to set a new record sales price for 86-87 Fleer proving that we haven't seen the peak just yet. There have been a few private sales at the 25k level. This box could easily reach 30k+.
Edit to add: I will also add that I don't believe even the most bullish of unopened collectors expect prices to continue to rise at the rate we've seen over the past 2 years. However, I will also add that about a year ago many were predicting that the market was past its peak at that stage, and here we are a year later. I do see prices leveling off at some point, and even a bit of a pullback, but I do not think that we are going to see a "bubble bursting" akin to a bear market for stocks or real estate whereby prices are going to retreat to 2011 levels, as product continues to grow scarcer going forward. There are even still those who continue to open these packs, myself included, though I admit I open far fewer packs than I once did.
I also think that the strength of the card market overall can be partially attributed to the strength of the financial markets in general and the amount of disposable income people have at this time and over the past couple of years. If we see an economic downturn that rocks the financial markets similar to 2008, I can foresee a more pronounced pullback at that time.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
I have always thought that 80T wax serves as an interesting barometer, and it could very well be banging off some resistance as we speak. A box on BBCE is finally on the verge of surviving the 48-hour mark @ $1,150, and a fairly clean exemplar "only" changed hands for $1,025 last night on eBay. A net $925 if you include the kickback.
If memory serves me correctly, Steve was dishing out sealed-case gems for $630 at last year's Natty. Doubt very seriously we'll ever see a correction that severe, and especially so for boxes that go directly from a case to your hands. But is $750-$800 out of the realm of possibility? I don't think so. A quick check of the actives and completeds will reveal that unopened goodness from '80 is more plentiful than one might suspect.
<< <i>I'm sure this angle has been discussed before, but here is my theory regarding unopened.
In many other hobbies the desired piece is the piece that is exactly as it came from the factory. The most obvious example would be toys. The holy grails are the unopened pieces with mint boxes. The contents inside are worth a fraction of the unopened piece. This trend can be seen in just about every collectible. Even clothes and shoes, if it has the tags, its worth much more.
I think this trend is just now catching full steam in cards. It no longer matters whats inside the packs and whether the cards inside are equal to the price of the pack. What matters is the pack itself and how rare is that specific pack. >>
I agree with your take... of course I do since I tend to collect boxes. Hah. As one insightful person once posted here, the answer to "what do you think is undervalued" tends to what whatever a responding person collects.
Getting back to your point, look at the value of, for example, Star Wars figures in original packaging, or pretty much any vintage toy. The value is, as you noted, exponentially higher than if removed, even if the figure/item is still gem mint. That is key.
A secondary question is "what constitutes factory condition." To some it will be packs. To others, it will be sealed cases. To me, wax cases and boxes tend to be close, except for easily searchable wax boxes like 1986 Fleer basketball. Wax boxes are much more aesthetically pleasing than cases, which look not much different from U-haul boxes, and wax boxes are what we all recall seeing at the market/gas station/etc. So a strong nod to boxes, which is why I believe we are seeing boxes sell for significantly more than the price of individual packs multiplied by the number of packs equal to a box. After this, I choose not easily searchable wax packs. Cello boxes and rack packs are great because you can actually see the cards, but the resulting search-ability is an issue.
I completely agree that unopened wax boxes are cool, and all the comments about why they are appealing are valid. However, all this was true three years ago. The question is, what changed since then? Is the obvious increase in demand a reflection of increased collector interest, or something less fundamental? Time will tell.
<< <i>I have always thought that 80T wax serves as an interesting barometer, and it could very well be banging off some resistance as we speak. A box on BBCE is finally on the verge of surviving the 48-hour mark @ $1,150, and a fairly clean exemplar "only" changed hands for $1,025 last night on eBay. A net $925 if you include the kickback.
If memory serves me correctly, Steve was dishing out sealed-case gems for $630 at last year's Natty. Doubt very seriously we'll ever see a correction that severe, and especially so for boxes that go directly from a case to your hands. But is $750-$800 out of the realm of possibility? I don't think so. A quick check of the actives and completeds will reveal that unopened goodness from '80 is more plentiful than one might suspect. >>
you know i'm with ya, buddy......at some point, each one of us needs to take a step back and examine why there is so much motivation to acquire things we may otherwise have kicked to the curb at last year's or the year before price point......then this examination leads to questions and self-doubt while trying to decide what is a money maker or what is just plain pretty.
i'll find me a '80 Topps Baseball box in the right place at the right time, AND at the right price. chances are it will be listed as Gardening Tools or Women's Lingerie, but my searches will turn it up baby, and when it does......
<< <i>Dozens of 80 wax boxes show up before you will see one 77 box. >>
exactly. which leads us to question why the exponential climb is affecting each in the same way. i think the concept implied here is that while the '80 Topps example would likely pull back or remain stable according to other opinions, the prior years would continue to climb because of the perceived greater scarcity.
in other words, 1980 Topps Baseball boxes are NOT that difficult to score, so why are people paying so much for them right now?
<< <i>Dozens of 80 wax boxes show up before you will see one 77 box. >>
exactly. which leads us to question why the exponential climb is affecting each in the same way. i think the concept implied here is that while the '80 Topps example would likely pull back or remain stable according to other opinions, the prior years would continue to climb because of the perceived greater scarcity.
in other words, 1980 Topps Baseball boxes are NOT that difficult to score, so why are people paying so much for them right now? >>
I think part of that has to do with budgetary considerations. More collectors are able to plunk down 1k for a 1980 box at auction than 3k+ for a 77 box.
I also believe that late 70s unopened in general was quite undervalued for an extended period of time. Prices were essentially static on these boxes for well over a decade, so there was ample room for appreciation, imo.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>I don't think the price 1980 wax boxes has any bearing on the rest of the market. How do 80 wax prices affect anything in the 70's that have more scarcity? Take a 77 wax box for example. Dozens of 80 wax boxes show up before you will see one 77 box. Apples to oranges. 1980 might be somewhat of a barometer on post 1980 unopened but it doesn't have anything to do with pre-1980 product. And certainly nothing to do with football unopened. >>
I would lump 1980 with 1978 & 79. Those 3 years are pretty close in scarcity/availability and have all seen a pretty sharp incline in price lately... anything pre-1978 just isn't as readily available and already had somewhat of a higher price point. So the run up in 78-80 is a combination of new demand and speculation that those years will follow the lead of the 75-77 period. Older stuff continues to rise, but at a lesser rate because the price point limits demand. I think you'll see the same thing eventually with 81-83. But each time demand shifts to another time period, the increases won't be as drastic because you're getting close to the steroid era rookies and mass production. Football and basketball are another story altogether, because while baseball was being mass produced in the mid/late 80s... those two sports were just getting restarted, so supply just isn't the same.
Just 2 years ago, I ripped through an entire 78 wax BB box when they were selling for 400. I couldn’t stop myself. I had the Muggy shakes. That ended up being a 3000 dollar + mistake.
I keep waiting for the spike in FB and it just hasn't happened yet. Some post 1974 years have gone up significantly - 1975, 1976, 1981, 1984, and 1986 - but the rest have been following from a far distance. I am especially surprised how relatively inexpensive 1980, 1982, 1983, and 1985 boxes are.
Those 1973, 1974, and 1978 racks sat for a while on the BBCE website before they were all purchased. All indicators point to a FB unopened bull run, but it just hasn't happened.
Comments
There are many ways to play the game of golf & enjoy it. Some people like to take a long at least 1 sixpack, maybe a bottle of bourbon and just cruise around in the cart, laughing it up at their bad shots, just general BS-ing & have a great time.
Others enjoy walking 18 holes for the exercise, playing very quickly, taking a little pride in themselves hitting a good shot. To them, that is very enjoyable.
For others, it is purely a social event or a business opportunity. Their main focus is communicating to others in their foursome.
Than there are the players who work hard & practice at their game. The better they score or play, the more fun it is to them.
And of course, there is the professional. He takes the game to another level, the fact that he is so good is very enjoyable to them.
Now the point is that the person that enjoys working on their game & seeing the results of that hard work payoff, would have no fun at all playing with a bunch of drunks.
As would the guys that have fun & have a couple of drinks would have no fun playing with a professional that would want them to be quiet as he concentrates & hits shots.
The social event players would have no fun being serious about their game, and on and on......
All of these golfers are having their own fun and enjoyment from the game, but just in different ways, and that is fine. What is not fine, is for one type of golfer to ridicule another type for the way they enjoy the game. To each his own! just as in the card collecting hobby, there are vintage collectors, unopened material collectors, modern day collectors, autograph collectors, game used memorabilia collectors, etc.....
To not recognize and respect a different category is very narrow minded.
Just on a personal note, I am the golfer who enjoys working & practicing on my game & when I play I am on the serious side. That is how I enjoy the game. My buddy is more of a social butterfly and that is fine, except when he starts telling me I am taking the game too serious. That just aggravates the tar out of me because that is what makes it fun to me. I would rather commit suicide than play like him, hitting bad shot after bad shot & just laughing it off!!!
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
<< <i>This thread has proved to be quiet informative. >>
+1
<< <i>Just chiming in to point out once again that many of the smug comments posted in this thread constitute classic bubble behavior. Continue! >>
What smug comments are you referring to?
<< <i>
<< <i>Just chiming in to point out once again that many of the smug comments posted in this thread constitute classic bubble behavior. Continue! >>
What smug comments are you referring to? >>
I'm referring to the usual posts in the vein of: "Haha, yes, the market is going to crash, you better sell everything to me now!"
The implication is that the suggestion that valuations are way out of whack is silly, and that a willingness to buy at any price is wise.
I find that attitude smug, and typical of the bubble mentality we've seen time and time again.
Any time someone is saying "this situation is different from all the other ones" I get very nervous.
In many other hobbies the desired piece is the piece that is exactly as it came from the factory. The most obvious example would be toys. The holy grails are the unopened pieces with mint boxes. The contents inside are worth a fraction of the unopened piece. This trend can be seen in just about every collectible. Even clothes and shoes, if it has the tags, its worth much more.
I think this trend is just now catching full steam in cards. It no longer matters whats inside the packs and whether the cards inside are equal to the price of the pack. What matters is the pack itself and how rare is that specific pack.
<< <i>Since then I bought the following wax boxes:
(2) 1980 Topps Baseball
(2) 1981 Topps Football
(2) 1984 Topps Football
(2) 1986 Topps Football
My next box is a 1986/87 Fleer Basketball box. Just spoke to Steve and he sold his last box for $25,000. Anyone that has a MINT BOX BBCE sealed 1986/87 Fleer Basketball box, I'm your guy... >>
I love every box you mentioned. Clean unopened boxes display incredibly well with some PSA graded cards from the same years. I like throwing a few loose packs into the mix as well. Mile High is supposed to have an 86-87 Fleer box in their next auction but I recommend staying away. Highly recommend staying away.
So I have a chance to win it.
In all honesty, I expect this particular box to set a new record sales price for 86-87 Fleer proving that we haven't seen the peak just yet. There have been a few private sales at the 25k level. This box could easily reach 30k+.
Edit to add: I will also add that I don't believe even the most bullish of unopened collectors expect prices to continue to rise at the rate we've seen over the past 2 years. However, I will also add that about a year ago many were predicting that the market was past its peak at that stage, and here we are a year later. I do see prices leveling off at some point, and even a bit of a pullback, but I do not think that we are going to see a "bubble bursting" akin to a bear market for stocks or real estate whereby prices are going to retreat to 2011 levels, as product continues to grow scarcer going forward. There are even still those who continue to open these packs, myself included, though I admit I open far fewer packs than I once did.
I also think that the strength of the card market overall can be partially attributed to the strength of the financial markets in general and the amount of disposable income people have at this time and over the past couple of years. If we see an economic downturn that rocks the financial markets similar to 2008, I can foresee a more pronounced pullback at that time.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
If memory serves me correctly, Steve was dishing out sealed-case gems for $630 at last year's Natty. Doubt very seriously we'll ever see a correction that severe, and especially so for boxes that go directly from a case to your hands. But is $750-$800 out of the realm of possibility? I don't think so. A quick check of the actives and completeds will reveal that unopened goodness from '80 is more plentiful than one might suspect.
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
<< <i>I'm sure this angle has been discussed before, but here is my theory regarding unopened.
In many other hobbies the desired piece is the piece that is exactly as it came from the factory. The most obvious example would be toys. The holy grails are the unopened pieces with mint boxes. The contents inside are worth a fraction of the unopened piece. This trend can be seen in just about every collectible. Even clothes and shoes, if it has the tags, its worth much more.
I think this trend is just now catching full steam in cards. It no longer matters whats inside the packs and whether the cards inside are equal to the price of the pack. What matters is the pack itself and how rare is that specific pack. >>
I agree with your take... of course I do since I tend to collect boxes. Hah. As one insightful person once posted here, the answer to "what do you think is undervalued" tends to what whatever a responding person collects.
Getting back to your point, look at the value of, for example, Star Wars figures in original packaging, or pretty much any vintage toy. The value is, as you noted, exponentially higher than if removed, even if the figure/item is still gem mint. That is key.
A secondary question is "what constitutes factory condition." To some it will be packs. To others, it will be sealed cases. To me, wax cases and boxes tend to be close, except for easily searchable wax boxes like 1986 Fleer basketball. Wax boxes are much more aesthetically pleasing than cases, which look not much different from U-haul boxes, and wax boxes are what we all recall seeing at the market/gas station/etc. So a strong nod to boxes, which is why I believe we are seeing boxes sell for significantly more than the price of individual packs multiplied by the number of packs equal to a box. After this, I choose not easily searchable wax packs. Cello boxes and rack packs are great because you can actually see the cards, but the resulting search-ability is an issue.
<< <i>I have always thought that 80T wax serves as an interesting barometer, and it could very well be banging off some resistance as we speak. A box on BBCE is finally on the verge of surviving the 48-hour mark @ $1,150, and a fairly clean exemplar "only" changed hands for $1,025 last night on eBay. A net $925 if you include the kickback.
If memory serves me correctly, Steve was dishing out sealed-case gems for $630 at last year's Natty. Doubt very seriously we'll ever see a correction that severe, and especially so for boxes that go directly from a case to your hands. But is $750-$800 out of the realm of possibility? I don't think so. A quick check of the actives and completeds will reveal that unopened goodness from '80 is more plentiful than one might suspect. >>
you know i'm with ya, buddy......at some point, each one of us needs to take a step back and examine why there is so much motivation to acquire things we may otherwise have kicked to the curb at last year's or the year before price point......then this examination leads to questions and self-doubt while trying to decide what is a money maker or what is just plain pretty.
i'll find me a '80 Topps Baseball box in the right place at the right time, AND at the right price. chances are it will be listed as Gardening Tools or Women's Lingerie, but my searches will turn it up baby, and when it does......
<< <i>Dozens of 80 wax boxes show up before you will see one 77 box. >>
exactly. which leads us to question why the exponential climb is affecting each in the same way. i think the concept implied here is that while the '80 Topps example would likely pull back or remain stable according to other opinions, the prior years would continue to climb because of the perceived greater scarcity.
in other words, 1980 Topps Baseball boxes are NOT that difficult to score, so why are people paying so much for them right now?
<< <i>
<< <i>Dozens of 80 wax boxes show up before you will see one 77 box. >>
exactly. which leads us to question why the exponential climb is affecting each in the same way. i think the concept implied here is that while the '80 Topps example would likely pull back or remain stable according to other opinions, the prior years would continue to climb because of the perceived greater scarcity.
in other words, 1980 Topps Baseball boxes are NOT that difficult to score, so why are people paying so much for them right now? >>
I think part of that has to do with budgetary considerations. More collectors are able to plunk down 1k for a 1980 box at auction than 3k+ for a 77 box.
I also believe that late 70s unopened in general was quite undervalued for an extended period of time. Prices were essentially static on these boxes for well over a decade, so there was ample room for appreciation, imo.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>I don't think the price 1980 wax boxes has any bearing on the rest of the market. How do 80 wax prices affect anything in the 70's that have more scarcity? Take a 77 wax box for example. Dozens of 80 wax boxes show up before you will see one 77 box. Apples to oranges. 1980 might be somewhat of a barometer on post 1980 unopened but it doesn't have anything to do with pre-1980 product. And certainly nothing to do with football unopened. >>
I would lump 1980 with 1978 & 79. Those 3 years are pretty close in scarcity/availability and have all seen a pretty sharp incline in price lately... anything pre-1978 just isn't as readily available and already had somewhat of a higher price point. So the run up in 78-80 is a combination of new demand and speculation that those years will follow the lead of the 75-77 period. Older stuff continues to rise, but at a lesser rate because the price point limits demand. I think you'll see the same thing eventually with 81-83. But each time demand shifts to another time period, the increases won't be as drastic because you're getting close to the steroid era rookies and mass production. Football and basketball are another story altogether, because while baseball was being mass produced in the mid/late 80s... those two sports were just getting restarted, so supply just isn't the same.
Those 1973, 1974, and 1978 racks sat for a while on the BBCE website before they were all purchased. All indicators point to a FB unopened bull run, but it just hasn't happened.