Have we seen the peak in unopened material prices?..or even a decline? Uh oh shhhh.
Steelernation
Posts: 362 ✭
I didn't want to hijack bobbyw's thread. And actually being a little facetious.
He asked if anyone's noticed that it's been quiet lately here on the board. Haven't seen an unopened discussion which always stimulates a good debate with a lot of opinions and contributors.
I personally think there's a slow 10-20% increase left. But I have noticed, for example, a bbce unopened 1980 topps box steadily climbed to $1200. With bbce themselves raising their prices, following the market, to $1150 late last week. Which quickly sold. Followed by some $1100's. I say following the market, not setting the market which I think they could surely do. Then this week a bbce wrapped box of the same going for somewhere above $950 last I looked.
Also, the higher end B.I.N.'s on eBay have been sitting longer when they used to last no more than a few days. Although the asking prices of some of the boxes are crazy.
I don't think were seeing a decline but maybe a leveling out in prices. Don't mean to start a debate or another discussion of the same. Although it's always a fun, informative read. But I do agree with Bobbyw. It has been quiet here lately.
He asked if anyone's noticed that it's been quiet lately here on the board. Haven't seen an unopened discussion which always stimulates a good debate with a lot of opinions and contributors.
I personally think there's a slow 10-20% increase left. But I have noticed, for example, a bbce unopened 1980 topps box steadily climbed to $1200. With bbce themselves raising their prices, following the market, to $1150 late last week. Which quickly sold. Followed by some $1100's. I say following the market, not setting the market which I think they could surely do. Then this week a bbce wrapped box of the same going for somewhere above $950 last I looked.
Also, the higher end B.I.N.'s on eBay have been sitting longer when they used to last no more than a few days. Although the asking prices of some of the boxes are crazy.
I don't think were seeing a decline but maybe a leveling out in prices. Don't mean to start a debate or another discussion of the same. Although it's always a fun, informative read. But I do agree with Bobbyw. It has been quiet here lately.
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They call me "Pack the Ripper"
<< <i>People were ripping boxes because the price made sense and you could easily buy more...nobody is ripping boxes anymore, therefore I anticipate some stability for quite awhile. >>
+1
I still think mid-70's to 1988 football is still undervalued outside of the glamour years - 1975, 1976, 1981, 1984, and 1986. Those 1970's racks that Steve had finally sold out. I was surprised they lasted as long as they did since you barely see them on ebay (unless you want "holiday" racks) or anywhere else.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>A 75 mini wax box just sold for $3,300 last night, a new high. >>
I saw one go on eBay via BO for $3150 about 4 days ago... but then I figured if seller had to pay 8-10% in fees, it wasn't much more than what Steve listed his last one at (pretty sure it was $2750). And no telling what kind of coupons the buyer had, or how much he got back in eBay bucks.
One thing I've been surprised about is the price on that 1981 Topps BB grocery rack case BBCE has listed... already at $15/rack with 5+ days to go. I wouldn't be as surprised with regular racks, but that seems a little high for grocery racks (and I'm assuming it will go for at least a hundred or two more than the current bid).
I was speaking with another collector last night about this exact topic and if four cases of 1977 Topps came to market, there are too many collectors that would be a buyer. I would think they would be gone in less than 24 hours with Steve. Four cases is not going to pop up for sale with Steve nor will four cases negatively impact the value of those boxes.
Shu- "There is a fair amount of product available on Steve's website". I would think many would disagree including Steve. Yes there are some nice boxes right now but his inventory is extremely low. Perhaps he is holding back some great stuff coming up for the National?
Steelernation - what's up with you and your unopened collection? Last time you posted on here you said you were selling it all, but you never replied to my PM.
<< <i>We're just talking about baseball correct? >>
Of course. Is there anything else?
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
1977 Topps BB Wax Box (from a sealed case, BBCE authentication): $3250
1976 Topps BB Wax Box (BBCE authentication): $6950
1976 Topps BB Wax Box (BBCE authentication): $5850
1975 Topps BB Mini Wax Box (BBCE authentication): $3300
1974 Topps BB Wax Box (BBCE authentication): $9500
1973 Topps BB Wax Box, Series 5 (BBCE authentication): $11,500
We are not seeing much of a slowdown in the momentum of the market yet. Supply is still tight and demand is still strong.
Dave
-For example, some areas of the unopened market have slowed down. Are 1961 fleer basketball packs still in the $1,000 - 1,500 range? Those have been range bound for a long time. Maybe 10 years. The supply of those I'm sure is tight. And it's a very small set with a lot of great players, star power. When collectors move on from a set, things slow down.
Early 70's packs have also been range bound for awhile. Like 72/73.
The 76 topps baseball box at $7k?!? Reminds me of tesla at $220. Is it going to triple again in the next few years to $21 k? Probably not.
It's funny how no one wanted those 75 mini boxes years ago at $1,500 or $1,750 and now people can't get enough. You wonder what's changed.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>I think a lot of the skeptics can be explained by looking up jealousy in Webster's. >>
True, and a lot of the current prices can be explained by looking up the word 'fear'.
Instagram: mattyc_collection
<< <i>prices have definitely peaked--I would sell if I were holding onto unopened....just saying >>
Agreed. Definitely sell quickly, if it's something I've been looking for. The market is crashing.
Jeff
<< <i>
<< <i>prices have definitely peaked--I would sell if I were holding onto unopened....just saying >>
Agreed. Definitely sell quickly, if it's something I've been looking for. The market is crashing. >>
I am accepting any and all PM's. Manny and Jeff have instructed me to buy on their behalf.
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep."
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."
Collecting:
Any unopened Baseball cello and rack packs and boxes from the 1970's and early 1980s.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>prices have definitely peaked--I would sell if I were holding onto unopened....just saying >>
Agreed. Definitely sell quickly, if it's something I've been looking for. The market is crashing. >>
I am accepting any and all PM's. Manny and Jeff have instructed me to buy on their behalf.
Haha.... Mike ready to strike!
I think unopened is just fine. Don't see it crashing
<< <i>Don't mean to start a debate or another discussion of the same. >>
oh well.....
<< <i>
<< <i>Don't mean to start a debate or another discussion of the same. >>
oh well..... >>
I thought the board was in a quite period...remember, shhhh?!?
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep."
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."
Collecting:
Any unopened Baseball cello and rack packs and boxes from the 1970's and early 1980s.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Don't mean to start a debate or another discussion of the same. >>
oh well..... >>
I thought the board was in a quite period...remember, shhhh?!? >>
"quiet", Mike.
it's more like the rumbling you hear before a massive explosion.
Jeff
Again, per that question raised, this would be why outsiders might question an unopened piece's price rise moreso than a high-end PSA graded single. The veteran unopened guys can tell what's good with confidence, but newcomers with interest can get burned much more easily with random unopened than with a random PSA graded card from a high feedback seller. And the only way to tell if one has been burned is to open the box and in doing so it's no longer what it was. So because the unopened box is sort of a special animal and requires some expertise to get a feel for what's right, there might be more of a tendency to question it than the PSA 10. I assume if PSA were to slab boxes somehow (perhaps some type of large cube or something?) that questioning would instantly evaporate. Clearly though, there are enough avid collectors of these pieces that the prices are healthy like the hobby is right now, despite the tendency to question one item's rise over another.
Instagram: mattyc_collection
<< <i>I find it odd that there have been many threads regarding people questioning increase pricing on unopened material but very few have popped up about the pricing on PSa 10 rookies from 1950's to 1980's. Why is that? Many of the HOF rookies have increased in pricing but you don't see the same type of banter as the unopened threads. We are in a buyers market right now for good material, thus seeing record breaking sales. The rare stuff will allows sell for crazy money even during a slow time in the market place. I have noticed quite a few collectors on the boards jump into the unopened market that have never participated in collecting unopened. Whether to make a run of boxes from 1980-1987 or just to rip. It seems to me because of this run the pricing has quickly escalated causing a shortage in inventory for resale. >>
For years I have collected mainly PSA 10's (but I'll take a super sharp 9 if the 10 is a crazy in price). I have never bought or collected unopened material until this last month. I didn't understand what the attraction was until I bought a BBCE 1975 Topps mini wax box (box is in PSA 10 looking shape) from a freshly cracked case. When I got it home, I put it in my case and looked at it next to my PSA 9 Yount, Brett and Ryan mini's. I stood back and said, "Holy sh*t." WOW! And it takes an awful lot to wow me these days. Since then I bought the following wax boxes:
(2) 1980 Topps Baseball
(2) 1981 Topps Football
(2) 1984 Topps Football
(2) 1986 Topps Football
My next box is a 1986/87 Fleer Basketball box. Just spoke to Steve and he sold his last box for $25,000. Anyone that has a MINT BOX BBCE sealed 1986/87 Fleer Basketball box, I'm your guy...
<< <i>Just chiming in to point out once again that many of the smug comments posted in this thread constitute classic bubble behavior. Continue! >>
I have no clue what the boxes or packs should sell for but if I were long this segment of the market it would concern me when the answer is jealous or haters. This is as you point out is classic bubble behavior and a massive warning sign historically in all markets.
In the past five years you could have practically thrown a dart at the card market and hit some home runs. Many of the people taking the other side of the argument have seen their own collections increase in value too and jealousy is the last thing on their mind.
The primary reason the threads bring in more comments is people like to comment on active threads. The more that surface the more comments you get and the cycle repeats.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>It does seem like any thread about unopened product is almost guaranteed to go 3+ pages. >>
Just trying to do my part.
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep."
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."
Collecting:
Any unopened Baseball cello and rack packs and boxes from the 1970's and early 1980s.
it makes me sad that that's the case, but it is what it is.
WTB: PSA 1 - PSA 3 Centered, High Eye Appeal 1950's Mantle
then, there's that feisty ol' envy to deal with, too.
<< <i>Just chiming in to point out once again that many of the smug comments posted in this thread constitute classic bubble behavior. Continue! >>
Whether it does or not why would you care if someone is going to lose money or that the bubble will burst? Let them figure it out for themselves. We are all big boys here who like all different types of collecting our "toys". I could easily start pointing fingers at collections that are a complete waste of money. All I am doing is craping on the dreams of some collector that has a passion for what he/she collects. Does that help or hurt the guys that are buying stuff they enjoy?
I personally like seeing the different sets being made and want to encourage others in their quests. Believe me, you don't want those guys gone out of the hobby or all of us will have our financial bubble burst.
In my view it is no coincidence that card values have been rising. Very few assets have not been in the past five years.
This chart of the SP 500 shows what kind of an expansion there has been in asset values. The increase in the market cap of the entire SP 500 is north of 11 trillion from the lows.
People want to put their money in something and hard assets have been a huge benifactor.
But alas, jealousy and fear are alive and well in the unopened market. However, I feel neither one of them have much to do with price itself... rather just the skepticism and speculation about price. I personally think what we're seeing is just a shift in focus. Almost all vintage unopened is going to "dry up" at some point... not that it won't exist, but it will eventually be ripped or make its way into hands that will hold it for long periods. You'll still see transactions, but it's quite often the same case/box/packs getting transferred around from collector to collector. Once the late 60s thru 1974 supply started really drying up in recent years, a shift in focus to 75-1980 product started occurring. With any market, demand will get over-zealous somewhat and you'll see prices fluctuate... but I don't see any bubble popping going on in the this market. You might get an occasional deflation to keep demand in check, but no sharp crash unless a major factor comes into play (say WW3, a dooms-day scenario, etc.). It's just a natural progression... and will probably eventually hit 81-84 prices and make them seem ridiculous. But after that point, I'll be curious to see what will happen. I think this progression will stop when it gets to mid- and late-80s product, the supply-side of it just doesn't justify it.
<< <i>
<< <i>Just chiming in to point out once again that many of the smug comments posted in this thread constitute classic bubble behavior. Continue! >>
Whether it does or not why would you care if someone is going to lose money or that the bubble will burst? Let them figure it out for themselves. We are all big boys here who like all different types of collecting our "toys". I could easily start pointing fingers at collections that are a complete waste of money. All I am doing is craping on the dreams of some collector that has a passion for what he/she collects. Does that help or hurt the guys that are buying stuff they enjoy?
I personally like seeing the different sets being made and want to encourage others in their quests. Believe me, you don't want those guys gone out of the hobby or all of us will have our financial bubble burst. >>
I try to stay out of the countless "investment" threads. I collect unopened (though not the popular expensive stuff) and enjoy it. I don't think the sky is falling or that prices will increase forever.
I'm guessing jealousy and or whatever some call it plays a role with some. But also, speaking for myself, I like the hobby and want it to be healthy and fun for everyone involved. We've had some people on these boards get taken for quite a ride in the past with bad unopened and it's caused them to leave the hobby altogether. That's not something I ever like to see. There's also a lot of people that got involved because they wanted to be in on what they thought was the ground floor and have bought and continue to buy bad product. Obviously, there's no way to ensure that no one ever gets burned on a deal but it's always good to try and see both sides of coin. Ideally, folks would spend a lot of time researching and learning about unopened so that they could make somewhat informed decisions by themselves as to the authenticity of the items they're buying.
I see a lot of questions like "what's the limit?" "will prices ever stop climbing?" and stuff like that but I see very few direct questions about what to look for when examining packs/boxes/cases. This tells me there's an awful lot of people buying without educating themselves and many of them will get burned. That's bad for the hobby and bad for the market for authentic material, as well. Look, I genuinely hope that everyone makes a billion dollars and can retire and get yachts and boob jobs, but it's not a bad idea to have moderate skepticism to stem the tide of bad deals and hopefully prevent people from getting burned. I don't want to crap on anyone's dreams, just want to make sure they spend a little time with their eyes open too.
That's my $0.02.
As to factor 3 above, I just pulled up a couple VCP numbers for 1978 and 1979, since unopened prices for these years in particular have gotten a lot of attention lately:
1978 Molitor PSA 10
2010 -$3300
2012 - $4500
2013 - $5800
2014 - $8100
Roughly 250% increase
1979 Ozzie PSA 10
2009 - $6500
2010- $7850
2012 - $20,850
2012 - $19,500
Roughly 300% increase
<< <i>I understand that it would/could be frustrating to see that the price of a basic raw 1978-1980 set has sat at around $100 for what seems like forever, but the price of wax boxes have tripled. I believe price increases have been driven by three primary factors (repeating myself from prior threads, I am sure): 1 - people who collected as kids in the 1970s and 1980s are in/entering peak earning years; 2 - the general economic rebound and stabilization experienced by most with the income to drop thousands on a hobby; and 3 - increases in PSA 10 prices during the same time, which is likely tied to 1 and 2. A fourth factor for late 1970s, I believe, is some concern about not being able to find this product in the near future. How many 1977, 1976 and 1975 (regular) Topps baseball wax boxes have you seen come up for sale since 2013? You can count the total on your hands. So while there may be some "fear" element driving price, this fear may not be misplaced.
As to factor 3 above, I just pulled up a couple VCP numbers for 1978 and 1979, since unopened prices for these years in particular have gotten a lot of attention lately:
1978 Molitor PSA 10
2010 -$3300
2012 - $4500
2013 - $5800
2014 - $8100
Roughly 250% increase
1979 Ozzie PSA 10
2009 - $6500
2010- $7850
2012 - $20,850
2012 - $19,500
Roughly 300% increase >>
That has been my point in previous threads about the rise in unopened prices--the same kind of price appreciation is evident for other key HOF RCs as well, like Schmidt, Yount, Brett, Henderson, etc.
Now, of course, there is no guarantee that you are going to pull a PSA Murray RC or Brett RC from a pack, but there is at least a tenuous correlation between the value of the pack/box and the potential value of the card(s) that may be nestled within.
I also think that prices on a lot of these 1970s packs were significantly undervalued for an extended period of time~the cost of a 1978 or 1979 wax box was pretty much static at about $500 and $400, respectively, for over a decade before this upswing in the past 2 years.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>SPY 5 year chart
In my view it is no coincidence that card values have been rising. Very few assets have not been in the past five years.
This chart of the SP 500 shows what kind of an expansion there has been in asset values. The increase in the market cap of the entire SP 500 is north of 11 trillion from the lows.
People want to put their money in something and hard assets have been a huge benifactor. >>
Spot on. The 300% increase we've seen in some card prices more or less mirrors the performance of the stock market from its lows in 2009. Granted it hasn't followed the same path, but its pretty close.
After a few cycles, the steepness of the increases falls off (basically when the supply side has mostly dried up and the true collectors are the only ones left in the market).
Right now we have basically hit the collectors only point for unopened baseball to around 1976, and we are nearing it for 1977-1980. From here there will be more gradual increases as transactions occur less frequently on this material.
That being said, I don't think we have reached the end of the current run just yet. Still too much demand and no real supply to speak of.
Dave