2013 Gold Spouse potential?

jmski52

Since things are a bit slow, maybe a good speculative question will stir things up.

PM Forum Question -

The mintages look like they are headed for new lows. What do you think of the profit potential for the 2013 Gold Spouses? Uncs? Proofs?

OperationButter

Fun questions today Jerry.

My take on the First Spouses is that the mint is producing some of the lowest mintages for gold in its history. Yes some of the designs are bad, however, there are a few nice ones mixed in there. There have been those that only collected the subset and those buying to chase the key to the series. Flippers have been burned for the most part and there really arent that many truly interested in the series right now. The unseating of the MS queen released a few months ago was quite interesting but in what I can tell, didnt spark new interest into the series (atleast no real price effects). When the more recognizable names start rolling out this year and next, I think there could be an uptick in interest and maybe mintages will reflect this. For now, we are allowed to grab these for relative small premiums if you look for the right deals.

I believe that the run up of gold prices in 2011 have caused many of these to have been melted, very similar to the platinum series. I wouldnt be surprised to see some of the 2007/2008 coins melted heavily, taking some of those massive mintages down to extremely low levels. Im also thinking that it will be rare to find a complete set of these 10/15/20 years out. While that is a very long time horizon for some, for many it isnt.

Will these be worth much more than melt in the next 1, 3, 5 years? I have no clue. I look at the recent issues from the mint and compare to my alternatives when buying US gold.

Currently the 2013 spouses are up for sale for $820 (MS) and $840 (Proof). If I wanted to purchase half an ounce of us gold at the lowest price I can find I would expect to pay around $730 (for the example I used APMEX pricing on a random date 1/2 oz gold american eagle). I weigh the pros and cons of purchasing generic gold vs collector gold and I ask myself, is it worth the $90 or $110 per coin (10-15% premium) for the same amount of gold (yes I know we are looking at .9999 gold vs 22 karat but again this is just an example). Personally Id take the gamble at some extremely rare/low mintage pieces of gold vs some generic eagles that have tens or hundreds of thousands produced. If Im wrong I lose out on the $90 premium. If Im right, who knows how rare/expensive a full set of these ladies can be.

Time will tell. Either way I was able to stash away some gold. If it turns out to be a flop, its still gold and gold is money.

Just my opinion

renman95

<< <i>Since things are a bit slow, maybe a good speculative question will stir things up.

PM Forum Question -

The mintages look like they are headed for new lows. What do you think of the profit potential for the 2013 Gold Spouses? Uncs? Proofs? >>



If the economy looks like it may contract or just muddle through another rough patch I don't see any potential in these during the muddle period. I think there may be an op to purchase cheaper. Maybe once all the "collectors" sell their 50 Baseball Hall of Fame $5 they may look to the Spouses(?) Then there's the next diversion-de-mint, the gold dual-date Kennedy. Also, I think that we may see $1000 gold before we see $2000 gold. That would be another....what's that called(?)...oh, yeah, a headwind.

Julio

"Currently the 2013 spouses are up for sale for $820 (MS) and $840 (Proof). If I wanted to purchase half an ounce of us gold at the lowest price I can find I would expect to pay around $730 (for the example I used APMEX pricing on a random date 1/2 oz gold american eagle). I weigh the pros and cons of purchasing generic gold vs collector gold and I ask myself, is it worth the $90 or $110 per coin (10-15% premium) for the same amount of gold (yes I know we are looking at .9999 gold vs 22 karat but again this is just an example). Personally Id take the gamble at some extremely rare/low mintage pieces of gold vs some generic eagles that have tens or hundreds of thousands produced. If Im wrong I lose out on the $90 premium. If Im right, who knows how rare/expensive a full set of these ladies can be.

Time will tell. Either way I was able to stash away some gold. If it turns out to be a flop, its still gold and gold is money.

Just my opinion" OperationButter

Useful info, thanks. Thinking of possibly a speculative play, to cure my boredom, and satisfy my urge to gamble. Something I don't do for reasons I wont divulge. Hope some more info trickles in. Take care. jws

MGLICKER

<< <i>Time will tell. Either way I was able to stash away some gold. If it turns out to be a flop, its still gold and gold is money. >>



Agree

derryb

I'd rather buy the early one's for close to melt.

OperationButter

<< <i>I'd rather buy the early one's for close to melt. >>



Slippery slope once you start backdating a series

Overdate

I would spend the extra $20 and get a proof. Once the series is ended and the flippers are gone, collector demand will determine the value of these coins. For typical commems, proofs outsell uncs by a factor of 3 to 1 or higher, reflecting collector preference. The ratio for recent Spouses is lower due to speculative demand for the very low mintage uncirculated specimens. However, in future years, collectors will gravitate toward the proofs because of their more attractive looks, and prices will likely reflect this preference.

derryb

collector demand will be miniscule until they are no longer moderns. Speculation keeps them overpriced. The best investment in gold spouses in the very long run will be the liberty spouses.

jmski52

The last time I ran a cursory analysis, the trajectory of the 2013 issues was falling further behind the low-mintage 2012 issues. The main question, in my mind is whether or not the Mint (in their infinite wisdom) managed to estimate their production run with any degree of accuracy before Dec. 31 was past.

Let's assume that the Mint made fewer of the 2013 issues than those that were produced in 2012. Maybe 5% to 10% lower. These are low numbers, and the likelihood is that the numbers will begin to increase as the more familiar names begin to appear next year. That means that these will be the low mintage keys, if indeed that means anything.

A quick review of mintage data reminds me that these low mintages likely won't be repeated for a hundred years or so, if ever. The fact that there is not much of a market for the Gold Spouse coins right now - may be totally irrelevant in a few years. Food for thought.

Having said all that, it's very hard to justify buying very many of these suckers. It just is.

Which makes it all that much harder not to.

Julio

"Which makes it all that much harder not to". jmski


. Take care. jws

Overdate

<< <i>Let's assume that the Mint made fewer of the 2013 issues than those that were produced in 2012. Maybe 5% to 10% lower. These are low numbers, and the likelihood is that the numbers will begin to increase as the more familiar names begin to appear next year. That means that these will be the low mintage keys, if indeed that means anything. >>


Final mintages of the 2013 Spouses could be even lower if they do not sell out. Three of the 2012 proofs failed to sell out, including the current key, Caroline Harrison, with a proof mintage of 3046.

RGJohn

<< <i>Since things are a bit slow, maybe a good speculative question will stir things up.

PM Forum Question -

The mintages look like they are headed for new lows. What do you think of the profit potential for the 2013 Gold Spouses? Uncs? Proofs? >>



Profit potential is not a thing unto itself. Profit potential over a given period of time is perhaps a better way to put it.
I love the Spouse Series. But it is like unto the viejo in 'The Milagro Beanfield Wars'; it seemingly will never end.
Perhaps, like real estate, it is to be a multi-generational investment.
------
Good stuff. Good gold. And interesting, informative history.

renman95

<< <i>I would spend the extra $20 and get a proof. Once the series is ended and the flippers are gone, collector demand will determine the value of these coins. For typical commems, proofs outsell uncs by a factor of 3 to 1 or higher, reflecting collector preference. The ratio for recent Spouses is lower due to speculative demand for the very low mintage uncirculated specimens. However, in future years, collectors will gravitate toward the proofs because of their more attractive looks, and prices will likely reflect this preference. >>



"...more attractive looks"...maybe if viewed through beer-goggles.

Overdate

<< <i>"...more attractive looks"...maybe if viewed through beer-goggles.
>>


Typically proofs are more attractive (or less unattractive) compared to uncirculated. And not all the Spouse coins are dogs - Jackson's Liberty and Julia Tyler are easy on the eyes.

MsMorrisine

buying the 2007 issues, and even into the 2008 issues are gambling these actually made it to melting pots. in addition to the price of gold.

Personally I don't like that gamble as much as the one posed about turning over the recent issues still on sale at the mint.

Coupdescrounge

This series sucks, it's poison at any mintage.

derryb

<< <i>This series sucks, it's poison at any mintage. >>


It's a half ounce of 24k gold when the price is right.

renman95

<< <i>

<< <i>"...more attractive looks"...maybe if viewed through beer-goggles.
>>


Typically proofs are more attractive (or less unattractive) compared to uncirculated. And not all the Spouse coins are dogs - Jackson's Liberty and Julia Tyler are easy on the eyes. >>



Yes, the Liberty's are very nice. Tyler had a knack in picking Firsties. The rest, meh. Maybe Jackie "O" will break the ugly streak.

cohodk

I can't wait till the series gets to Hillary. I'm going to buy them all.........and melt them.

OPA

I don't collect this series, but at one time I collected the Liberty Set, which was sold years ago at a decent profit. This series, has some incredible low mintage's and my guess is, that tons of the early ones ended up in the melting pot after the price of gold skyrocketed.
"Today's out of favored Mint products, may turn out to be a Blessing In Disguise." Only time will tell.

ricko

I doubt if any of these coins will garner any significant collector value in our lifetime...or that of our grandchildren. Dead series... just stacking value. Cheers, RickO

greghansen

A lot of things can happen between now and the end of year to affect final mintages. If gold gets a little pop and stays up $50-$100 from where it is now, its likely the mintages will come in at new lows as many people will not pay up for the coins figuring they 'missed' the best time to buy them. If gold stays at present levels or, God forbid, goes down by end of year, more people are likely to take a swing at the low mintage coins.

I haven't bought any of the 2013's and likely won't until more clarity on the final numbers is available.

OPA

<< <i>I doubt if any of these coins will garner any significant collector value in our lifetime...or that of our grandchildren. Dead series... just stacking value. Cheers, RickO >>



Thanks ricko, for your forecast, but with your track record of predictions, I'll suspect the opposite will happen.

jmski52

Mintages on the 2013 Gold Spouses is final. Unfortunately, we don't know the numbers.

92vette

<< <i>The last time I ran a cursory analysis, the trajectory of the 2013 issues was falling further behind the low-mintage 2012 issues. The main question, in my mind is whether or not the Mint (in their infinite wisdom) managed to estimate their production run with any degree of accuracy before Dec. 31 was past.

Let's assume that the Mint made fewer of the 2013 issues than those that were produced in 2012. Maybe 5% to 10% lower. These are low numbers, and the likelihood is that the numbers will begin to increase as the more familiar names begin to appear next year. That means that these will be the low mintage keys, if indeed that means anything.

A quick review of mintage data reminds me that these low mintages likely won't be repeated for a hundred years or so, if ever. The fact that there is not much of a market for the Gold Spouse coins right now - may be totally irrelevant in a few years. Food for thought.

Having said all that, it's very hard to justify buying very many of these suckers. It just is.

Which makes it all that much harder not to. >>



Very good post. People forget half the equation of these coins and that is mint production. How many did the mint strike? They can't strike 2013's in 2014. We never did find out how many 2012 uncs they struck because none sold out. Only one PR sold out and that was at 3500 coins. So the mint in all likelyhood struck some number fewer than 3500 of the uncs... how many fewer? 500 fewer at about 3000? Who knows. For this year, there's really only one thing to do, and that is to monitor the sales reports and wait by the monitor with an itchy trigger when it's revealed that one has sold out at some low number... which is entirely possible.
I wouldn't be so sure this series represents a low point of mintages for a gold coin. Down the road someone could dream up an even dumber politically motivated series theme and the mint will have no choice but to produce those too.

jmski52

I wouldn't be so sure this series represents a low point of mintages for a gold coin. Down the road someone could dream up an even dumber politically motivated series theme and the mint will have no choice but to produce those too.

I'm not discounting that possibility, I'm just going on historical data. The 1915 Pan-Pac gold slugs were the last gold coins produced with lower mintages than the recent Gold Spouses.

Overdate

<< <i>For this year, there's really only one thing to do, and that is to monitor the sales reports and wait by the monitor with an itchy trigger when it's revealed that one has sold out at some low number... which is entirely possible. >>


Or you could order 4000 of each design and finish and see how many you receive.