Being less than 30 years old, I don't think it's out of the question that there could be a few cases out there. A few years ago I picked up parts of a dealer inventory that was frozen in time from the 1980s when his store closed down. Unfortunately no basketball but lots of unopened baseball from the 70s and 80s. I think boxes are more likely to be unearthed than cases as not too many people hoarded cases (even small dealer shops who couldn't move that much product). However, if a 1963 Impala and 1959 Cameo pick-up truck with less than 10 original miles has been unearthed in the past year, it's not unthinkable that there could be a few cases of '86-'87 Fleer basketball tucked away somewhere. The owners may not even know they have it (Black Swamp find ring a bell?). However, I would agree 100 cases is not realistic being that so few have hit the market or even been seen in the last 15 years.
Great discussion and very interesting points raised. I offer a few random comments.
1. What many people who frequent these boards forget is that most sports cards are still sitting ungraded in thousands upon thousands of collectons. If there have been 21,000 86 Fleer Jordan rookies graded, I assure you there are at least that number ungraded (and likely more). There are thousands of collectors who have no interest in paying to have their cards graded (even high dollar ones) unless it comes a time to sell those cards. While I personally now prefer to buy graded cards if not buying in person for the safety of knowing (to some extent) what I am getting and condidion and authenticity if I cant see it in person, I dont typically pay to have my own cards graded. Why pay to have cards graded unless you are looking to sell them? Remember this is a PSA board, hence most members and posters are into graded cards and most are also dealers or at least dabble in selling in addition to collecting. There are many people out there who dont sell, they just buy and collect. 2. As someone earlier alluded to, the amount of wealth out there is almost unfathomable to most people. For the tens of thousands upon tens of thousands of ultra wealthy individuals and families, $1,000 to them is like $1.00 to others. They cant be bothered with showing someone their case of 1986 fleer basketball. When you have (certainly not me personally) $30 million or more in the bank or in liquid investments, you really dont need more cash. What you want is "stuff". Beach houses, planes, boats, collectibles, etc. And you dont sell those items, unless you need money and those families dont need money. Do any of these families have 1986 Fleer wax cases? No idea, but if they did they certainly would most likely not be selling them regardless of price and certainly wont let anyone see them for $1,000. 3. The odds of there being 100 cases of 1986 Fleer unopened basketball cases floating around out there is probably greater than finding a hoard of 25 or more gem mint almost complete sets of E98 caramels some 102 years after they were produced or someone named Mr. Mint finding a bunch of unopened 1952 topps high number boxes and cases. I assure you, in basements, closets, etc, there are cases of 1986 Fleer basketball. Are there 100. Who knows? But they do exist. Just as there are dozens of raw mint 1952 topps mantles yet to be graded. 4. For those individuals who are not in the ultra wealthy group, some of them do have unopened boxes and most likely cases of 1986 Fleer hoops, but you wouldnt want to let on that you had a hoard of that product because that in itself devalues the product, which you would not want to do. By keeping it a secret until the day you want to sell, you are most definitely going to maximize your sales price. Whats the point of everyone who has a box or case, chiming in and letting everyone know about it. That is self defeating. Many collectors of high dollar items are private, they dont use twitter, they dont take selfies, they dont have facebook pages displaying their collections. They collect for their own enjoyment. 5. Kudos to BBCE for chiming in, but you also have to understand that they as a willing buyer of 1986 Fleer wax boxes and cases to the tune of $12,000 plus a pop for the boxes and $200k for a case, you are damn right, they would be willing to pay $1,000 or even more to know what type of availability is out there. Thats to protect themeselves (thats less than 1% of the purchase price). Thats a smart business move. If you are paying that type of money for product, you want to make sure someone isnt sitting on dozens of cases or their arent dozens of people sitting on a case each, so that the day after you fork out a quarter of a million dollars for some cardboard produced in the 1980s and before you can sell it, the price drops in half because 10 other cases come to market. But if you pay 5 different people $1,000 to see their cases, thats called doing your due diligence and that is money well spent to avoid a potentiall loss in the tens of thousands. You can better assess whether those cases are in strong hands or not and adjust your purchase price accordingly. 6. All this being said, 100 unopened cases is certainly possible but in reality does seem to be on the high side given the type of product, but dozens certainly does not. And as far as individual unopened boxes of 1986 fleer, that has to be in the hundreds if not thousands. Many collectors bought boxes to keep unopened, but alot less bough cases. If a thousand people all showed pictures of their 1986 fleer basketball wax box (and said they had no intention of selling at those time but felt like showing for some reason), would BBCE lower their purchase price per box? I dont know, but I would be interested in knowing the answer.
What a great thread and so interesting to hear the opinions of all the collectors out there. My guess would be there are 1-10 cases that exist today. I have many friends that have been in the baseball card business and top collectors in the industry but not one of them have had a case of this. Not that I know everyone, but I would think one of these collectors would have something like this in their collection. I think the odds of one not existing today would be the same that there are 100 cases existing. Someone has a case of 1986-87 sitting in their closet. Most likely it is a collector like my father who bought a case of Topps here and there just because he liked the product.
I would like to follow up on the comment that Steve Hart made about that there has never been a case sold by Mastro. Mastro and Robert Edward auctions got the very best collections to offer up for auction for a good 10 year period. One day I wanted to see what items these two AH had offered up in the form of unopened material during the 1998-2008 period. I found it very interesting to see what they sold for and what years were being offered in case form. The answer was very little was offered in case form - with the excecption of the 1975 Topps stuff. I would be really shocked if there are many of these cases left.
Just my two cents.
Looking for high grade rookie cards and unopened boxes/cases
<< <i>Glad Steve shared his valuable perspective on his experiences. Another area that likely warrants consideration is how many we're produced. Assess these facts:
1) PSA + BGS have graded a combined 21,000 Jordan RC's 2) Next highest card submitted from set is Barkley/Malone at 6,000 each 3) If a Jordan is raw, it is largely considered fake in today's market; therefore 90% or more will have been submitted 4) The submission spread on Jordan vs. Malone is over 3 to 1 and a large function of crack and resubmit hoping for higher grades on Jordan 5) This means best scenario there are 20,000 Jordan rookies in existence (I believe closer to 15,000 actually) 6) At 3.27 sets per box, Fleer would have sold 6,000 boxes which is 500 cases total 7) No auction houses have ever had a case despite unearthing some of the worlds rarest items 8) In no scenario can there be 100+ cases remaining
I am exactly where Steve is. 1 or 2 cases may be hiding out there, but odds are zero. This would likely put the legit box count at less than 50 given many from the Mark Murphy days were broken for packs. Great discussion so far. This is what makes the hobby fun! >>
I agree with the poster that a sealed case probably doesn't exist, but I am positive "fact" #3 is grossly exaggerated. "If a Jordan is raw, it is largely considered fake in today's market" might hold true on eBay or Craigslist listings, but not true when considered the entire population of surviving cards. I stared buying and selling cards in high school. I had access to an endless stream of new inventory as I proceeded to buy collections from my classmates, who could use the money for cars and girls. I even bought a couple collections of my teachers! However, I wasn't even close to buying everyone's collections, and over the next 10-15 years, I still couldn't shake them all out, including several Jordans. There are still many Jordan rookies out there that belong in childhood collections of people in Hawaii. Basketball cards are and have always been big out there, and I've bought and sold dozen of Jordan rookies just in that state alone. I can assure you that many of the ones I've sold have not been graded and lie in dormant collections. Not everyone believes in grading; as it's been mentioned on this board, we here are definitely just a fraction of the collecting community.
Fact #4 has to do with the prohibitive costs of grading. The average collector, probably can't reason paying $10 or more (remember, an average collector doesn't submit 100+ cards at a time) for a card that books for $40, which could explain the difference in quantities between Jordan and Malone much better than the crack and resubmit theory. I agree that crack and resubmit has inflated the numbers considerably, but not triple.
Fact #6 doesn't make sense from a manufacturer standpoint. There's absolutely no way, given the overhead of producing a card set (licensing, production costs) would Fleer do a 500 case run of anything. If they sold out (and they didn't) at $10/box, the revenue generated would have been $60,000 from the entire print run. David Stern probably charged Fleer more than that just for the license. >>
Reed - you have to keep in mind that in 1986, Fleer's annual earnings were $40M with only $10M coming from cards and the balance coming from Dubble Bubble and Gatorgum. You can find this in their annual reports. Topps had locks on the Football card market and the tiny US hockey card market. The only angle Fleer had to grow sales beyond baseball cards, of which they were ~10% share, was to expand into basketball cards since there was no competition. With NBA fan base growing due to the Bird/Magic finals match ups, Fleer likely struck a cheap deal with Stern and the players association to try to further promote the league. Fleer likely projected basketball sales to be about 5% of there baseball card sales which would be $500,000 or 6000 cases. This is in the ballpark of the production you got from the Fleer rep. With sales being painfully bad and returns very high (remember this was not even selling for $10 in year of issue) it is very likely that net sales were about 25% of forecast. Lets assume that only half of the Jordan rookies are graded...that would still only be 40,000 rookies and thus 1000 cases issued. With the universal knowledge and prowess of the Jordan rookie along with the now 20+ years of grading and opportunity to sell to dealers, I would find it had to believe that half are still ungraded. Maybe back in 2001, but not now. Either way, there is certainly not a hoard of these on the planet (which I know you agree with).
If the over/under is set at 100 cases I take the under for sure.
As far as boxes, I can see collectors having those stashed away here and there and them adding up to many still existing scattered around with a few people with multiples. I have to imagine a lot of the people who paid $15 a box back in the day sold when they skyrocketed to $100 a pack.
Either way it sure is interesting and fun to speculate on.
This thread has been a great discussion and has been that, a discussion. The reason I don't chime in much at all is that threads turn from discussion, into arguments, quite often. At that, point, I am no longer interested in even reading any further.
Again, I am only telling my opinion from my experience.
I agree with Roger that I would be shocked if there were zero cases.
However............anytime a conversation starts with:
I know a guy..... I heard of a guy...... Back in 1986...... I collector/dealer once told me....... I friend of mine knows someone.......
You pretty much don't know what comes after the dots is true of not. I want to know of one sealed case. I don't want to know of 3,5,10 or 100. I want to know of one case.
Everything that follows with: I know a guy....... still doesn't prove there is a case. Maybe my offer of $1000 to see one doens't matter to anyone with money. Maybe I should offer just to see a picture of one next to a copy of todays newspaper with the date on it. This person can then call me a dunderhead for thinking one doesn't exist.
Is it just coincidence that everyone who owns a case:
A)Doesn't need the money Would never sell it C) Has never shown anyone the case (I mean, nobody has ever said they SAW the cases, they just know a guy who has one) D) That I cant come up with a dealer who has sold one in the last 20 years
Also, I hear them all. I also have been told that there are 2 cases and 20 boxes of 1952 Topps baseball high number wax in South Carolina. That there are multiple cases of 1958 Topps baseball wax in New Jersey. The guy has a $50,000 old truck on blocks in his front yard and doesn't need the money to sell the 58 cases. (So anyone out in NJ who knows of someone with a $50,000 Sanford and Sons truck on blocks in the front yard, you may want to knock on the door). A dealer some may remember in Chicago named D. Long. He told me he had 5 of every wax case from 1970 to 1980 in all sports. But yet he got caught sleeping under his booth one night because he claimed he had nowhere to go. I keep hearing of a collector in MN. who has 10-20 of each wax box, 1957 through 1967, from each series. There is an old time candy person in California with unopened baseball wax cases from 1960 to present, many of each........
Now, I am not calling them liars. I would never do that. Harry Reid calls other Americans liars, but I would hesitate to ever do that. However, each one of these stories also started with......I know a guy.........but not 1 pack of anything has ever been seen or heard from about these stories. See what I'm getting at? I can only say from personal experience I don't know of any cases. However, I do know a guy who told me that he once saw a unicorn in his front yard..............
<< <i>This thread has been a great discussion and has been that, a discussion. The reason I don't chime in much at all is that threads turn from discussion, into arguments, quite often. At that, point, I am no longer interested in even reading any further.
Again, I am only telling my opinion from my experience.
I agree with Roger that I would be shocked if there were zero cases.
However............anytime a conversation starts with:
I know a guy..... I heard of a guy...... Back in 1986...... I collector/dealer once told me....... I friend of mine knows someone.......
You pretty much don't know what comes after the dots is true of not. I want to know of one sealed case. I don't want to know of 3,5,10 or 100. I want to know of one case.
Everything that follows with: I know a guy....... still doesn't prove there is a case. Maybe my offer of $1000 to see one doens't matter to anyone with money. Maybe I should offer just to see a picture of one next to a copy of todays newspaper with the date on it. This person can then call me a dunderhead for thinking one doesn't exist.
Is it just coincidence that everyone who owns a case:
A)Doesn't need the money Would never sell it C) Has never shown anyone the case (I mean, nobody has ever said they SAW the cases, they just know a guy who has one) D) That I cant come up with a dealer who has sold one in the last 20 years
Also, I hear them all. I also have been told that there are 2 cases and 20 boxes of 1952 Topps baseball high number wax in South Carolina. That there are multiple cases of 1958 Topps baseball wax in New Jersey. The guy has a $50,000 old truck on blocks in his front yard and doesn't need the money to sell the 58 cases. (So anyone out in NJ who knows of someone with a $50,000 Sanford and Sons truck on blocks in the front yard, you may want to knock on the door). A dealer some may remember in Chicago named D. Long. He told me he had 5 of every wax case from 1970 to 1980 in all sports. But yet he got caught sleeping under his booth one night because he claimed he had nowhere to go. I keep hearing of a collector in MN. who has 10-20 of each wax box, 1957 through 1967, from each series. There is an old time candy person in California with unopened baseball wax cases from 1960 to present, many of each........
Now, I am not calling them liars. I would never do that. Harry Reid calls other Americans liars, but I would hesitate to ever do that. However, each one of these stories also started with......I know a guy.........but not 1 pack of anything has ever been seen or heard from about these stories. See what I'm getting at? I can only say from personal experience I don't know of any cases. However, I do know a guy who told me that he once saw a unicorn in his front yard..............
Great going on this thread guys!! >>
I've heard the South Carolina one myself, living here for years. Majority of my collecting in NC/SC. Do I put stock in it? Nope. None at all. If I had heard it from one or two guys around the lowcountry area I trust, maybe. But that wasn't the case.
<< <i> Reed - you have to keep in mind that in 1986, Fleer's annual earnings were $40M with only $10M coming from cards and the balance coming from Dubble Bubble and Gatorgum. You can find this in their annual reports. Topps had locks on the Football card market and the tiny US hockey card market. The only angle Fleer had to grow sales beyond baseball cards, of which they were ~10% share, was to expand into basketball cards since there was no competition. With NBA fan base growing due to the Bird/Magic finals match ups, Fleer likely struck a cheap deal with Stern and the players association to try to further promote the league. Fleer likely projected basketball sales to be about 5% of there baseball card sales which would be $500,000 or 6000 cases. This is in the ballpark of the production you got from the Fleer rep. With sales being painfully bad and returns very high (remember this was not even selling for $10 in year of issue) it is very likely that net sales were about 25% of forecast. Lets assume that only half of the Jordan rookies are graded...that would still only be 40,000 rookies and thus 1000 cases issued. With the universal knowledge and prowess of the Jordan rookie along with the now 20+ years of grading and opportunity to sell to dealers, I would find it had to believe that half are still ungraded. Maybe back in 2001, but not now. Either way, there is certainly not a hoard of these on the planet (which I know you agree with). >>
Do you have a copy of those reports? I'd love to see them. From my research, Donruss and Fleer had a very similar market share and Donruss' was ~$40MM in 1983, and they didn't have gum sales calculated into that.
Steve, I completely agree with your logic. Until one surfaces, it's all just hearsay. However, at this point, and going off of what a case would sell for, I do believe it's fairly reasonable to assume that IF someone still had one at this point, they clearly don't need the money.
Also, those big AHs also find rare stuff and broker private sales. Not everything they sell gets listed in their auctions.
<< <i>As far as boxes, I can see collectors having those stashed away here and there and them adding up to many still existing scattered around with a few people with multiples. I have to imagine a lot of the people who paid $15 a box back in the day sold when they skyrocketed to $100 a pack. >>
I agree with this and would think that had I had a case stashed away as an investment, I would have started boxing it out and selling one at a time by this point. I would have to think the majority of folks who may have had cases would have been realizing profits gradually on a box by box basis.
On a side note, I appreciate you cannot disclose anything, Steve, but I would have to think that some of the items that collectors have earmarked for your purchase or assistance selling after their passing are jaw-dropping.
<< <i> Reed - you have to keep in mind that in 1986, Fleer's annual earnings were $40M with only $10M coming from cards and the balance coming from Dubble Bubble and Gatorgum.
Do you have a copy of those reports? I'd love to see them. From my research, Donruss and Fleer had a very similar market share and Donruss' was ~$40MM in 1983, and they didn't have gum sales calculated into that.
Steve, I completely agree with your logic. Until one surfaces, it's all just hearsay. However, at this point, and going off of what a case would sell for, I do believe it's fairly reasonable to assume that IF someone still had one at this point, they clearly don't need the money.
Also, those big AHs also find rare stuff and broker private sales. Not everything they sell gets listed in their auctions. >>
You can google Fleer earnings 1986 and see the report. Here is an excerpt from 1990 that would actually put total revenue for 1986 closer to $28M. Cards being about one third of sales. I also placed a great link on the history of Fleer below. Great context during the hobby heyday.
1990 IPO excerpt: If it comes in its expected range, the issue "is fairly priced," said Al Hadhazy, senior analyst for the financial newsletter, New Issues.
He said there may be more attractive initial public offerings in the pipeline, but noted Fleer's strong financial performance, which include a
tripling in annual sales in the 1986-1989 period...Unofficial net sales last year totaled $83.42 million, and net income was $6.89 million.
Meanwhile, the leading baseball card concern, Brooklyn-based Topps Co., had record sales and net income in its fiscal year 1990, ended March 3. Net income totaled $37.55 million, or $1.20 a share, on sales of $246.4 million.
I've really enjoyed this thread, a few of my thoughts. I was in the U.S. Marine Corps in 1986 at Fort Leavenworth,Kansas working in the military prison. I bought Fleer basketball at a local Revco drug store, three boxes and I opened them all. It seems logical that a few cases exist somewhere in some situation. I worked at a card shop in Ohio in the late 1980's early 1990's, we had several Amish that bought cases from us to store in the barn but no Fleer basketball, mostly Topps wax. The thing about wealthy people saving cases with no plan, need, or desire to sell them is that eventually they die and likely the family would liquidate that portion of the estate so why haven't any turned up. I'd like to think there are a few dozen cases out there somewhere but the evidence and the arguments don't hold up. This thread has me wondering what other pre 1975 cases exist outside of the 1975 Topps baseball we all know about.
Basketball-Without a doubt there is significantly less 1987-88 Fleer basketball than 1986-87. They cut production drastically due to the well documented lack of interest. The 1987-88 fleer set is gorgeous too. If there was at least one big rookie card in that set, it would be huge. But just a bunch of 2nd year cards.
Football-I happen to think that there were a bunch of miscalculations on how much 1989 Score was produced. It seemed to shoot to $20 a pack overnight due to it's perceived scarcity, but that stuff is still everywhere and everyone owns a Barry Sanders
Baseball - I believe the sleeping giant is 1976 Topps Baseball. I think it is much more rare than people realize. 1975 was a tough year for Topps as the minis got no interest and they stepped up production on the regular issue. So in 1976 they cut back quite a bit. Talking to fellow collectors, there have been very few confirmed. But there seems to be a lot of 1975
Hockey- Canada is the place to go to find unopened OPC. Canadians are a unique group. They might be sitting on thousands of dollars worth of unopened and not really care too much about it. They sell when they get around to it
Steve, can you confirm the lack of 1976 Baseball out there?
The Clockwork Angel Collection...brought to you by Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Chase TheClockworkAngelCollection
Great thread, great discussion. I wish we had more meaningful threads like this on the board.
My guess is there are 0-3 cases in existence.
If there are 100 cases out there, can anyone name any item in our entire hobby that has an estimated population of 50-100 that has never been offered in an auction within the last 20 years? 10 years? 5 years? Even if there were multiple cases stored away in private wealthy collections, we would have seen a few of them come to auction.
I think the t206 Wagner is a comparable example. There are an estimated 70 of these in existence. Many of these cards also reside in private, wealthy collections. However, every year we see this card come up for auction. I think with the 86 case, if there were truly 50-100 in existence, we would see a similar pattern.
Basketball-Without a doubt there is significantly less 1987-88 Fleer basketball than 1986-87. They cut production drastically due to the well documented lack of interest. The 1987-88 fleer set is gorgeous too. If there was at least one big rookie card in that set, it would be huge. But just a bunch of 2nd year cards.
Football-I happen to think that there were a bunch of miscalculations on how much 1989 Score was produced. It seemed to shoot to $20 a pack overnight due to it's perceived scarcity, but that stuff is still everywhere and everyone owns a Barry Sanders
Baseball - I believe the sleeping giant is 1976 Topps Baseball. I think it is much more rare than people realize. 1975 was a tough year for Topps as the minis got no interest and they stepped up production on the regular issue. So in 1976 they cut back quite a bit. Talking to fellow collectors, there have been very few confirmed. But there seems to be a lot of 1975
Hockey- Canada is the place to go to find unopened OPC. Canadians are a unique group. They might be sitting on thousands of dollars worth of unopened and not really care too much about it. They sell when they get around to it
Steve, can you confirm the lack of 1976 Baseball out there? >>
1976 Topps baseball is one of my favorite issues from the 70s. Definitely a tougher year to find than either 1975 or 1977.
This box is a bit dusty and beat up, but it's still one of my personal favorites...
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Basketball-Without a doubt there is significantly less 1987-88 Fleer basketball than 1986-87. They cut production drastically due to the well documented lack of interest. The 1987-88 fleer set is gorgeous too. If there was at least one big rookie card in that set, it would be huge. But just a bunch of 2nd year cards.
Football-I happen to think that there were a bunch of miscalculations on how much 1989 Score was produced. It seemed to shoot to $20 a pack overnight due to it's perceived scarcity, but that stuff is still everywhere and everyone owns a Barry Sanders
Baseball - I believe the sleeping giant is 1976 Topps Baseball. I think it is much more rare than people realize. 1975 was a tough year for Topps as the minis got no interest and they stepped up production on the regular issue. So in 1976 they cut back quite a bit. Talking to fellow collectors, there have been very few confirmed. But there seems to be a lot of 1975
Hockey- Canada is the place to go to find unopened OPC. Canadians are a unique group. They might be sitting on thousands of dollars worth of unopened and not really care too much about it. They sell when they get around to it
Steve, can you confirm the lack of 1976 Baseball out there? >>
1976 Topps baseball is one of my favorite issues from the 70s. Definitely a tougher year to find than either 1975 or 1977.
This box is a bit dusty and beat up, but it's still one of my personal favorites...
>>
Mine too Tim. I have maybe seen 3 1976 unopened rack boxes in my life and seen much more 1975, 1974, 77. What a great box to own
The Clockwork Angel Collection...brought to you by Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Chase TheClockworkAngelCollection
i wonder if the lack of HOF RCs (yea yea i know Eck is in it) hurts the '76's in the hobby as a whole. i know the wax is rarer, but does the average collector care?
and yes, this has been a great thread.
i would say there are at least 25 cases out there, somewhere.
Big Fan of: HOF Post War RC, Graded RCs WTB: PSA 1 - PSA 3 Centered, High Eye Appeal 1950's Mantle
I remember a few years ago, sorry I don't remember many of the details, but the show was in Strongsville, Ohio. This show was quite popular for many years before the boom ended. Al Rosen was there and I happened to be near his table when a dealer brought over and sold him two unopened three box rack cases of 1976 Topps baseball. For the record, I've never seen a case of any product older than 1975 Topps in any form.
<< <i>This thread has been a great discussion and has been that, a discussion. The reason I don't chime in much at all is that threads turn from discussion, into arguments, quite often. At that, point, I am no longer interested in even reading any further.
Again, I am only telling my opinion from my experience.
I agree with Roger that I would be shocked if there were zero cases.
However............anytime a conversation starts with:
I know a guy..... I heard of a guy...... Back in 1986...... I collector/dealer once told me....... I friend of mine knows someone.......
You pretty much don't know what comes after the dots is true of not. I want to know of one sealed case. I don't want to know of 3,5,10 or 100. I want to know of one case.
Everything that follows with: I know a guy....... still doesn't prove there is a case. Maybe my offer of $1000 to see one doens't matter to anyone with money. Maybe I should offer just to see a picture of one next to a copy of todays newspaper with the date on it. This person can then call me a dunderhead for thinking one doesn't exist.
Is it just coincidence that everyone who owns a case:
A)Doesn't need the money Would never sell it C) Has never shown anyone the case (I mean, nobody has ever said they SAW the cases, they just know a guy who has one) D) That I cant come up with a dealer who has sold one in the last 20 years
Also, I hear them all. I also have been told that there are 2 cases and 20 boxes of 1952 Topps baseball high number wax in South Carolina. That there are multiple cases of 1958 Topps baseball wax in New Jersey. The guy has a $50,000 old truck on blocks in his front yard and doesn't need the money to sell the 58 cases. (So anyone out in NJ who knows of someone with a $50,000 Sanford and Sons truck on blocks in the front yard, you may want to knock on the door). A dealer some may remember in Chicago named D. Long. He told me he had 5 of every wax case from 1970 to 1980 in all sports. But yet he got caught sleeping under his booth one night because he claimed he had nowhere to go. I keep hearing of a collector in MN. who has 10-20 of each wax box, 1957 through 1967, from each series. There is an old time candy person in California with unopened baseball wax cases from 1960 to present, many of each........
Now, I am not calling them liars. I would never do that. Harry Reid calls other Americans liars, but I would hesitate to ever do that. However, each one of these stories also started with......I know a guy.........but not 1 pack of anything has ever been seen or heard from about these stories. See what I'm getting at? I can only say from personal experience I don't know of any cases. However, I do know a guy who told me that he once saw a unicorn in his front yard..............
Great going on this thread guys!! >>
Thanks for your inputs Steve. I have heard several of these stories as well and probably contributed to one of them. But I think the one I mentioned was real. I stress was because I think the inventory was probably cleared out long ago. That would be the one about the candy store owner in CA. I never asked where the store owner lived but CA would make sense based on the dealer who sold the inventory was located. Back in the early to mid-90s, there was an unopened dealer called 'Perfect Card Company'. It was an older man and his wife (I think his name was Emil Bollman but I'm not 100% certain). They set up at shows and had an incredible unopened inventory. I bought from them at the Frank and Sons show and Anaheim national. That's where I bought my 1962, 1963, 1968, 1969, 1970 and 1971 packs from. I pulled them from full and mostly full boxes that they were breaking. They said they got their inventory from a retired candy store owner who would sell them some product each year at tax time. Maybe that was just a story they were telling but they always reloaded their inventory from year to year. They had most years from the 1960s and 1970s, mostly baseball and football. They claimed their source also had a few late 50s wax boxes but didn't want to sell those and I never saw 50s packs in their booth. I mentioned them on the boards a few times and am shocked nobody remembers them. They had a big banner behind their table with their company name. This was around the same time you were breaking a massive 1970 baseball vending run. My buddy took a Polaroid of their booth/display but he misplaced it over the years. He's in the process of moving and I asked him to keep a look out for the photo as he's organizing. If he can find it, I'll post the picture here.
As one of the guys who said "I know a guy...", let me state that I have no proof and I really have no idea if the guy is full of it, although i have no specific reasons to doubt him either. So let's take my report with a grain of salt until known otherwise. I will, however, reach out to him and let steve's offer be known....at the very least i will attempt to get some sort of proof. I will let you all know what i find, but I have no problem having my report considered "unlikely" until further proof.
Steve, can you confirm the lack of 1976 Baseball out there? >>
I've been in the market for a box or two for some time, and can say it's difficult to come by. There were at least three boxes publicly sold last year (two auction house sales and one BBCE). Unfortunately I didn't pay up. While I have seen more 1975 cello, I haven't seen anything in the way of wax. 1977 has also been extremely difficult. Seen zero wax boxes in the last year.
Best thread in a long, long time. I've enjoyed the read.
I guess I'm not surprised by the lack of Mantle rookies, the "mom threw my cards out" story seemed to make sense and have merit as I was growing up. But the relatively recent chance to score this gold mine of 86 fleer basketball just blows my mind. Unreal.
<< <i>As one of the guys who said "I know a guy...", let me state that I have no proof and I really have no idea if the guy is full of it, although i have no specific reasons to doubt him either. So let's take my report with a grain of salt until known otherwise. I will, however, reach out to him and let steve's offer be known....at the very least i will attempt to get some sort of proof. I will let you all know what i find, but I have no problem having my report considered "unlikely" until further proof. >>
parkerj - please do keep us posted on if the case really exists and thanks for your honesty on not really having any proof at this stage. Fingers crossed this will be more than just an "I know a guy..."
Also, anyone else find it amazing that Tim has found a way to bring his 1970's unopened collection even into this thread? I am still betting there are more 1976 Topps baseball boxes out there than 1986 Fleer basketball
I have to add my picture of this 76 rack also since I agree it is a favorite. But didn't BBCE have two 1976 cello boxes for sell last year one of which we broke in a group break?
Jim
Looking for 66 and 69 OPC baseball 60's OPC packs 72 BB, 60's FB, 71FB, 73FB, 74FB, 75FB, 76FB, 78FB Rack Packs 72 and earlier BB cello
But didn't BBCE have two 1976 cello boxes for sell last year one of which we broke in a group break?
There was one box, but it was not an original one, it was put together with star packs and (IIRC) packs with Reds on top (no, it wasn't Mark's box, lol)...
Nice box, Jim!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
It has been the better part of a month and still no sighting of a legit 86/87 Fleer case to be found, much less even a single box. Thought I would take another shot at asking this community if anyone has a box in their collection? Also hoping that Parkerj and canjond might have an update on the potential "cases" they knew of? I know there has to be one out there somewhere...heck, cases of 1975, 1977, 1978, 1979 baseball and football have all popped up in the past month alone. This is further fueling my belief that the true "white whales" of unopened are 86/87 Fleer and 79/80 OPC Hockey. I can find unopened boxes monthly of anything from the 1970's (with the exception of 1971 Baseball), but tracking down rookie boxes for Jordan and Gretzky continues to elude me.
<< <i>It I can find unopened boxes monthly of anything from the 1970's (with the exception of 1971 Baseball), but tracking down rookie boxes for Jordan and Gretzky continues to elude me. >>
Do you just buy or buy and sell? There are several ones I've been hunting for a couple years without seeing one. Same with BBCE.
I don't currently have a 1986/87 wax box but have had them. They are out there. Ask any major auction house's consignment director.
Most are sitting in safe deposit boxes. I was talking to a gentlemen from New York a few years ago about purchasing his OPC box for $10K. Some older collectors don't spend as much time online as we do and don't need the money, so they sit. As far as looking for a case of Fleer basketball, if BBCE offers five hundred bucks just to see one....well....they are pretty rare or don't exist. If anyone had any, I'd guess Fritsch but they are rather secretive of how much they have and rightfully so looking at how unopened has shot up the last couple years. It still drives me crazy though.
About a year and a half ago a guy at a bigger show locally (comes 1x or 2x a year to Mpls) said he had 10 or 11 boxes. He had 2 boxes on display so could only verify those....think he was asking $14k/box? Not the type of show where someone would spend that much cash, but cool to see a box on display.
Didn't ask his name, and wouldn't recognize him again if I saw him. But obviously a hard meeting to forget.
Looking for rare Randy Moss rookies and autos, as well as '97 PMG Red Football cards for my set.
<< <i>It I can find unopened boxes monthly of anything from the 1970's (with the exception of 1971 Baseball), but tracking down rookie boxes for Jordan and Gretzky continues to elude me. >>
Do you just buy or buy and sell? There are several ones I've been hunting for a couple years without seeing one. Same with BBCE.
I don't currently have a 1986/87 wax box but have had them. They are out there. Ask any major auction house's consignment director. >>
Thanks for the replies. I primarily just buy, but will sell things from time to time when I need to free up cash for a larger purchase. I am kicking myself for not grabbing a box from BBCE right after the 2012 National when they last surfaced. Been a long drought finding another since then. I would love to add one to my Jordan collection.
<< <i>It I can find unopened boxes monthly of anything from the 1970's (with the exception of 1971 Baseball), but tracking down rookie boxes for Jordan and Gretzky continues to elude me. >>
Do you just buy or buy and sell? There are several ones I've been hunting for a couple years without seeing one. Same with BBCE.
I don't currently have a 1986/87 wax box but have had them. They are out there. Ask any major auction house's consignment director. >>
Thanks for the replies. I primarily just buy, but will sell things from time to time when I need to free up cash for a larger purchase. I am kicking myself for not grabbing a box from BBCE right after the 2012 National when they last surfaced. Been a long drought finding another since then. I would love to add one to my Jordan collection. >>
I "think" there are still at least 2 cases in existence. Don't take my word however....I'm just a "guy who knows a guy", or more accurately "a guy who knows a girl".
<< <i>About a year and a half ago a guy at a bigger show locally (comes 1x or 2x a year to Mpls) said he had 10 or 11 boxes. He had 2 boxes on display so could only verify those....think he was asking $14k/box? Not the type of show where someone would spend that much cash, but cool to see a box on display.
Didn't ask his name, and wouldn't recognize him again if I saw him. But obviously a hard meeting to forget. >>
I know who you are talking about--that guy has some great stories about the time he was more into the hobby (until early 1990s I think) including the infamous Upper Deck French hockey scam.
<< <i>About a year and a half ago a guy at a bigger show locally (comes 1x or 2x a year to Mpls) said he had 10 or 11 boxes. He had 2 boxes on display so could only verify those....think he was asking $14k/box? Not the type of show where someone would spend that much cash, but cool to see a box on display.
Didn't ask his name, and wouldn't recognize him again if I saw him. But obviously a hard meeting to forget. >>
I know who you are talking about--that guy has some great stories about the time he was more into the hobby (until early 1990s I think) including the infamous Upper Deck French hockey scam. >>
Glad someone else can back me up and that I'm not crazy.
Have to ask - what is the UD French Hockey scam? Never heard of that.
Looking for rare Randy Moss rookies and autos, as well as '97 PMG Red Football cards for my set.
In his Book "Card Sharks" writer Pete Williams targeted the companies practices from the early days when it allegedly reprinted French NHL Hockey cards for the Canadian market. The Sergei Fedorov Rookie Cards at the time were selling for about $180 each from this set which was supposed to be very limited. Williams charged what most people believed. Based on the hot market Upper Deck went back to the printing presses to crank out more French Hockey which went to Canada and was shipped right back to the USA until the market caught up with itself. Those same Fedorov cards which sold for $180 in 1991 sell for less than $10 today.
I'm going with zero exist as well. We would have seen some pop up in last few years if some were still around. Anyone even have a stock photo of what a sealed case looks like. Who bought the last known ones. Did they bust them?
A few releases are like this. I also doubt any 1979 OPC Hockey cases exist. Have those ever come up for sale in last several years?
That's a great third post! I imagine BBCE will be in touch with them. I think the BBCE post may have had its desired effect. I don't really believe they thought zero cases existed. It was more of a challenge to try to draw a case out of the woodwork. And here we go...
His description is pretty forthright and he does offer a full refund if the box doesn't check out. I would imagine a payment of this amount would be held in escrow till the deal is sealed.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Comments
1. What many people who frequent these boards forget is that most sports cards are still sitting ungraded in thousands upon thousands of collectons. If there have been 21,000 86 Fleer Jordan rookies graded, I assure you there are at least that number ungraded (and likely more). There are thousands of collectors who have no interest in paying to have their cards graded (even high dollar ones) unless it comes a time to sell those cards. While I personally now prefer to buy graded cards if not buying in person for the safety of knowing (to some extent) what I am getting and condidion and authenticity if I cant see it in person, I dont typically pay to have my own cards graded. Why pay to have cards graded unless you are looking to sell them? Remember this is a PSA board, hence most members and posters are into graded cards and most are also dealers or at least dabble in selling in addition to collecting. There are many people out there who dont sell, they just buy and collect.
2. As someone earlier alluded to, the amount of wealth out there is almost unfathomable to most people. For the tens of thousands upon tens of thousands of ultra wealthy individuals and families, $1,000 to them is like $1.00 to others. They cant be bothered with showing someone their case of 1986 fleer basketball. When you have (certainly not me personally) $30 million or more in the bank or in liquid investments, you really dont need more cash. What you want is "stuff". Beach houses, planes, boats, collectibles, etc. And you dont sell those items, unless you need money and those families dont need money. Do any of these families have 1986 Fleer wax cases? No idea, but if they did they certainly would most likely not be selling them regardless of price and certainly wont let anyone see them for $1,000.
3. The odds of there being 100 cases of 1986 Fleer unopened basketball cases floating around out there is probably greater than finding a hoard of 25 or more gem mint almost complete sets of E98 caramels some 102 years after they were produced or someone named Mr. Mint finding a bunch of unopened 1952 topps high number boxes and cases. I assure you, in basements, closets, etc, there are cases of 1986 Fleer basketball. Are there 100. Who knows? But they do exist. Just as there are dozens of raw mint 1952 topps mantles yet to be graded.
4. For those individuals who are not in the ultra wealthy group, some of them do have unopened boxes and most likely cases of 1986 Fleer hoops, but you wouldnt want to let on that you had a hoard of that product because that in itself devalues the product, which you would not want to do. By keeping it a secret until the day you want to sell, you are most definitely going to maximize your sales price. Whats the point of everyone who has a box or case, chiming in and letting everyone know about it. That is self defeating. Many collectors of high dollar items are private, they dont use twitter, they dont take selfies, they dont have facebook pages displaying their collections. They collect for their own enjoyment.
5. Kudos to BBCE for chiming in, but you also have to understand that they as a willing buyer of 1986 Fleer wax boxes and cases to the tune of $12,000 plus a pop for the boxes and $200k for a case, you are damn right, they would be willing to pay $1,000 or even more to know what type of availability is out there. Thats to protect themeselves (thats less than 1% of the purchase price). Thats a smart business move. If you are paying that type of money for product, you want to make sure someone isnt sitting on dozens of cases or their arent dozens of people sitting on a case each, so that the day after you fork out a quarter of a million dollars for some cardboard produced in the 1980s and before you can sell it, the price drops in half because 10 other cases come to market. But if you pay 5 different people $1,000 to see their cases, thats called doing your due diligence and that is money well spent to avoid a potentiall loss in the tens of thousands. You can better assess whether those cases are in strong hands or not and adjust your purchase price accordingly.
6. All this being said, 100 unopened cases is certainly possible but in reality does seem to be on the high side given the type of product, but dozens certainly does not. And as far as individual unopened boxes of 1986 fleer, that has to be in the hundreds if not thousands. Many collectors bought boxes to keep unopened, but alot less bough cases. If a thousand people all showed pictures of their 1986 fleer basketball wax box (and said they had no intention of selling at those time but felt like showing for some reason), would BBCE lower their purchase price per box? I dont know, but I would be interested in knowing the answer.
I would like to follow up on the comment that Steve Hart made about that there has never been a case sold by Mastro. Mastro and Robert Edward auctions got the very best collections to offer up for auction for a good 10 year period. One day I wanted to see what items these two AH had offered up in the form of unopened material during the 1998-2008 period. I found it very interesting to see what they sold for and what years were being offered in case form. The answer was very little was offered in case form - with the excecption of the 1975 Topps stuff. I would be really shocked if there are many of these cases left.
Just my two cents.
<< <i>
<< <i>Glad Steve shared his valuable perspective on his experiences. Another area that likely warrants consideration is how many we're produced. Assess these facts:
1) PSA + BGS have graded a combined 21,000 Jordan RC's
2) Next highest card submitted from set is Barkley/Malone at 6,000 each
3) If a Jordan is raw, it is largely considered fake in today's market; therefore 90% or more will have been submitted
4) The submission spread on Jordan vs. Malone is over 3 to 1 and a large function of crack and resubmit hoping for higher grades on Jordan
5) This means best scenario there are 20,000 Jordan rookies in existence (I believe closer to 15,000 actually)
6) At 3.27 sets per box, Fleer would have sold 6,000 boxes which is 500 cases total
7) No auction houses have ever had a case despite unearthing some of the worlds rarest items
8) In no scenario can there be 100+ cases remaining
I am exactly where Steve is. 1 or 2 cases may be hiding out there, but odds are zero. This would likely put the legit box count at less than 50 given many from the Mark Murphy days were broken for packs. Great discussion so far. This is what makes the hobby fun! >>
I agree with the poster that a sealed case probably doesn't exist, but I am positive "fact" #3 is grossly exaggerated. "If a Jordan is raw, it is largely considered fake in today's market" might hold true on eBay or Craigslist listings, but not true when considered the entire population of surviving cards. I stared buying and selling cards in high school. I had access to an endless stream of new inventory as I proceeded to buy collections from my classmates, who could use the money for cars and girls. I even bought a couple collections of my teachers! However, I wasn't even close to buying everyone's collections, and over the next 10-15 years, I still couldn't shake them all out, including several Jordans. There are still many Jordan rookies out there that belong in childhood collections of people in Hawaii. Basketball cards are and have always been big out there, and I've bought and sold dozen of Jordan rookies just in that state alone. I can assure you that many of the ones I've sold have not been graded and lie in dormant collections. Not everyone believes in grading; as it's been mentioned on this board, we here are definitely just a fraction of the collecting community.
Fact #4 has to do with the prohibitive costs of grading. The average collector, probably can't reason paying $10 or more (remember, an average collector doesn't submit 100+ cards at a time) for a card that books for $40, which could explain the difference in quantities between Jordan and Malone much better than the crack and resubmit theory. I agree that crack and resubmit has inflated the numbers considerably, but not triple.
Fact #6 doesn't make sense from a manufacturer standpoint. There's absolutely no way, given the overhead of producing a card set (licensing, production costs) would Fleer do a 500 case run of anything. If they sold out (and they didn't) at $10/box, the revenue generated would have been $60,000 from the entire print run. David Stern probably charged Fleer more than that just for the license. >>
Reed - you have to keep in mind that in 1986, Fleer's annual earnings were $40M with only $10M coming from cards and the balance coming from Dubble Bubble and Gatorgum. You can find this in their annual reports. Topps had locks on the Football card market and the tiny US hockey card market. The only angle Fleer had to grow sales beyond baseball cards, of which they were ~10% share, was to expand into basketball cards since there was no competition. With NBA fan base growing due to the Bird/Magic finals match ups, Fleer likely struck a cheap deal with Stern and the players association to try to further promote the league. Fleer likely projected basketball sales to be about 5% of there baseball card sales which would be $500,000 or 6000 cases. This is in the ballpark of the production you got from the Fleer rep. With sales being painfully bad and returns very high (remember this was not even selling for $10 in year of issue) it is very likely that net sales were about 25% of forecast. Lets assume that only half of the Jordan rookies are graded...that would still only be 40,000 rookies and thus 1000 cases issued. With the universal knowledge and prowess of the Jordan rookie along with the now 20+ years of grading and opportunity to sell to dealers, I would find it had to believe that half are still ungraded. Maybe back in 2001, but not now. Either way, there is certainly not a hoard of these on the planet (which I know you agree with).
As far as boxes, I can see collectors having those stashed away here and there and them adding up to many still existing scattered around with a few people with multiples. I have to imagine a lot of the people who paid $15 a box back in the day sold when they skyrocketed to $100 a pack.
Either way it sure is interesting and fun to speculate on.
Again, I am only telling my opinion from my experience.
I agree with Roger that I would be shocked if there were zero cases.
However............anytime a conversation starts with:
I know a guy.....
I heard of a guy......
Back in 1986......
I collector/dealer once told me.......
I friend of mine knows someone.......
You pretty much don't know what comes after the dots is true of not. I want to know of one sealed case. I don't want to know of 3,5,10 or 100. I want to know of one case.
Everything that follows with: I know a guy.......
still doesn't prove there is a case. Maybe my offer of $1000 to see one doens't matter to anyone with money. Maybe I should offer just to see a picture of one next to a copy of todays newspaper with the date on it. This person can then call me a dunderhead for thinking one doesn't exist.
Is it just coincidence that everyone who owns a case:
A)Doesn't need the money
C) Has never shown anyone the case (I mean, nobody has ever said they SAW the cases, they just know a guy who has one)
D) That I cant come up with a dealer who has sold one in the last 20 years
Also, I hear them all. I also have been told that there are 2 cases and 20 boxes of 1952 Topps baseball high number wax in South Carolina. That there are multiple cases of 1958 Topps baseball wax in New Jersey. The guy has a $50,000 old truck on blocks in his front yard and doesn't need the money to sell the 58 cases. (So anyone out in NJ who knows of someone with a $50,000 Sanford and Sons truck on blocks in the front yard, you may want to knock on the door). A dealer some may remember in Chicago named D. Long. He told me he had 5 of every wax case from 1970 to 1980 in all sports. But yet he got caught sleeping under his booth one night because he claimed he had nowhere to go. I keep hearing of a collector in MN. who has 10-20 of each wax box, 1957 through 1967, from each series. There is an old time candy person in California with unopened baseball wax cases from 1960 to present, many of each........
Now, I am not calling them liars. I would never do that. Harry Reid calls other Americans liars, but I would hesitate to ever do that.
However, each one of these stories also started with......I know a guy.........but not 1 pack of anything has ever been seen or heard from about these stories.
See what I'm getting at? I can only say from personal experience I don't know of any cases.
However, I do know a guy who told me that he once saw a unicorn in his front yard..............
Great going on this thread guys!!
We had all heard about Topps and the unsold 1952 high numbers by 1987... who would destroy a rookie-laden issue?
+1 for a RogerMNJ sighting.
Bosox1976
<< <i>This thread has been a great discussion and has been that, a discussion. The reason I don't chime in much at all is that threads turn from discussion, into arguments, quite often. At that, point, I am no longer interested in even reading any further.
Again, I am only telling my opinion from my experience.
I agree with Roger that I would be shocked if there were zero cases.
However............anytime a conversation starts with:
I know a guy.....
I heard of a guy......
Back in 1986......
I collector/dealer once told me.......
I friend of mine knows someone.......
You pretty much don't know what comes after the dots is true of not. I want to know of one sealed case. I don't want to know of 3,5,10 or 100. I want to know of one case.
Everything that follows with: I know a guy.......
still doesn't prove there is a case. Maybe my offer of $1000 to see one doens't matter to anyone with money. Maybe I should offer just to see a picture of one next to a copy of todays newspaper with the date on it. This person can then call me a dunderhead for thinking one doesn't exist.
Is it just coincidence that everyone who owns a case:
A)Doesn't need the money
C) Has never shown anyone the case (I mean, nobody has ever said they SAW the cases, they just know a guy who has one)
D) That I cant come up with a dealer who has sold one in the last 20 years
Also, I hear them all. I also have been told that there are 2 cases and 20 boxes of 1952 Topps baseball high number wax in South Carolina. That there are multiple cases of 1958 Topps baseball wax in New Jersey. The guy has a $50,000 old truck on blocks in his front yard and doesn't need the money to sell the 58 cases. (So anyone out in NJ who knows of someone with a $50,000 Sanford and Sons truck on blocks in the front yard, you may want to knock on the door). A dealer some may remember in Chicago named D. Long. He told me he had 5 of every wax case from 1970 to 1980 in all sports. But yet he got caught sleeping under his booth one night because he claimed he had nowhere to go. I keep hearing of a collector in MN. who has 10-20 of each wax box, 1957 through 1967, from each series. There is an old time candy person in California with unopened baseball wax cases from 1960 to present, many of each........
Now, I am not calling them liars. I would never do that. Harry Reid calls other Americans liars, but I would hesitate to ever do that.
However, each one of these stories also started with......I know a guy.........but not 1 pack of anything has ever been seen or heard from about these stories.
See what I'm getting at? I can only say from personal experience I don't know of any cases.
However, I do know a guy who told me that he once saw a unicorn in his front yard..............
Great going on this thread guys!! >>
I've heard the South Carolina one myself, living here for years. Majority of my collecting in NC/SC. Do I put stock in it? Nope. None at all. If I had heard it from one or two guys around the lowcountry area I trust, maybe. But that wasn't the case.
<< <i>
Reed - you have to keep in mind that in 1986, Fleer's annual earnings were $40M with only $10M coming from cards and the balance coming from Dubble Bubble and Gatorgum. You can find this in their annual reports. Topps had locks on the Football card market and the tiny US hockey card market. The only angle Fleer had to grow sales beyond baseball cards, of which they were ~10% share, was to expand into basketball cards since there was no competition. With NBA fan base growing due to the Bird/Magic finals match ups, Fleer likely struck a cheap deal with Stern and the players association to try to further promote the league. Fleer likely projected basketball sales to be about 5% of there baseball card sales which would be $500,000 or 6000 cases. This is in the ballpark of the production you got from the Fleer rep. With sales being painfully bad and returns very high (remember this was not even selling for $10 in year of issue) it is very likely that net sales were about 25% of forecast. Lets assume that only half of the Jordan rookies are graded...that would still only be 40,000 rookies and thus 1000 cases issued. With the universal knowledge and prowess of the Jordan rookie along with the now 20+ years of grading and opportunity to sell to dealers, I would find it had to believe that half are still ungraded. Maybe back in 2001, but not now. Either way, there is certainly not a hoard of these on the planet (which I know you agree with). >>
Do you have a copy of those reports? I'd love to see them. From my research, Donruss and Fleer had a very similar market share and Donruss' was ~$40MM in 1983, and they didn't have gum sales calculated into that.
Steve, I completely agree with your logic. Until one surfaces, it's all just hearsay. However, at this point, and going off of what a case would sell for, I do believe it's fairly reasonable to assume that IF someone still had one at this point, they clearly don't need the money.
Also, those big AHs also find rare stuff and broker private sales. Not everything they sell gets listed in their auctions.
<< <i>As far as boxes, I can see collectors having those stashed away here and there and them adding up to many still existing scattered around with a few people with multiples. I have to imagine a lot of the people who paid $15 a box back in the day sold when they skyrocketed to $100 a pack. >>
I agree with this and would think that had I had a case stashed away as an investment, I would have started boxing it out and selling one at a time by this point. I would have to think the majority of folks who may have had cases would have been realizing profits gradually on a box by box basis.
<< <i>
<< <i>
Reed - you have to keep in mind that in 1986, Fleer's annual earnings were $40M with only $10M coming from cards and the balance coming from Dubble Bubble and Gatorgum.
Do you have a copy of those reports? I'd love to see them. From my research, Donruss and Fleer had a very similar market share and Donruss' was ~$40MM in 1983, and they didn't have gum sales calculated into that.
Steve, I completely agree with your logic. Until one surfaces, it's all just hearsay. However, at this point, and going off of what a case would sell for, I do believe it's fairly reasonable to assume that IF someone still had one at this point, they clearly don't need the money.
Also, those big AHs also find rare stuff and broker private sales. Not everything they sell gets listed in their auctions. >>
You can google Fleer earnings 1986 and see the report. Here is an excerpt from 1990 that would actually put total revenue for 1986 closer to $28M. Cards being about one third of sales. I also placed a great link on the history of Fleer below. Great context during the hobby heyday.
1990 IPO excerpt:
If it comes in its expected range, the issue "is fairly priced," said Al Hadhazy, senior analyst for the financial newsletter, New Issues.
He said there may be more attractive initial public offerings in the pipeline, but noted Fleer's strong financial performance, which include a
tripling in annual sales in the 1986-1989 period...Unofficial net sales last year totaled $83.42 million, and net income was $6.89 million.
Meanwhile, the leading baseball card concern, Brooklyn-based Topps Co., had record sales and net income in its fiscal year 1990, ended March 3. Net income totaled $37.55 million, or $1.20 a share, on sales of $246.4 million.
http://www.fundinguniverse.com/company-histories/fleer-corporation-history/
TheClockworkAngelCollection
Basketball-Without a doubt there is significantly less 1987-88 Fleer basketball than 1986-87. They cut production drastically due to the well documented lack of interest. The 1987-88 fleer set is gorgeous too. If there was at least one big rookie card in that set, it would be huge. But just a bunch of 2nd year cards.
Football-I happen to think that there were a bunch of miscalculations on how much 1989 Score was produced. It seemed to shoot to $20 a pack overnight due to it's perceived scarcity, but that stuff is still everywhere and everyone owns a Barry Sanders
Baseball - I believe the sleeping giant is 1976 Topps Baseball. I think it is much more rare than people realize. 1975 was a tough year for Topps as the minis got no interest and they stepped up production on the regular issue. So in 1976 they cut back quite a bit. Talking to fellow collectors, there have been very few confirmed. But there seems to be a lot of 1975
Hockey- Canada is the place to go to find unopened OPC. Canadians are a unique group. They might be sitting on thousands of dollars worth of unopened and not really care too much about it. They sell when they get around to it
Steve, can you confirm the lack of 1976 Baseball out there?
TheClockworkAngelCollection
My guess is there are 0-3 cases in existence.
If there are 100 cases out there, can anyone name any item in our entire hobby that has an estimated population of 50-100 that has never been offered in an auction within the last 20 years? 10 years? 5 years? Even if there were multiple cases stored away in private wealthy collections, we would have seen a few of them come to auction.
I think the t206 Wagner is a comparable example. There are an estimated 70 of these in existence. Many of these cards also reside in private, wealthy collections. However, every year we see this card come up for auction. I think with the 86 case, if there were truly 50-100 in existence, we would see a similar pattern.
Just my thoughts. Once again, great discussion.
"Common sense is the best distributed commodity in the world, for every man is convinced that he is well supplied with it"
<< <i>Some other thoughts on unopened
Basketball-Without a doubt there is significantly less 1987-88 Fleer basketball than 1986-87. They cut production drastically due to the well documented lack of interest. The 1987-88 fleer set is gorgeous too. If there was at least one big rookie card in that set, it would be huge. But just a bunch of 2nd year cards.
Football-I happen to think that there were a bunch of miscalculations on how much 1989 Score was produced. It seemed to shoot to $20 a pack overnight due to it's perceived scarcity, but that stuff is still everywhere and everyone owns a Barry Sanders
Baseball - I believe the sleeping giant is 1976 Topps Baseball. I think it is much more rare than people realize. 1975 was a tough year for Topps as the minis got no interest and they stepped up production on the regular issue. So in 1976 they cut back quite a bit. Talking to fellow collectors, there have been very few confirmed. But there seems to be a lot of 1975
Hockey- Canada is the place to go to find unopened OPC. Canadians are a unique group. They might be sitting on thousands of dollars worth of unopened and not really care too much about it. They sell when they get around to it
Steve, can you confirm the lack of 1976 Baseball out there? >>
1976 Topps baseball is one of my favorite issues from the 70s. Definitely a tougher year to find than either 1975 or 1977.
This box is a bit dusty and beat up, but it's still one of my personal favorites...
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
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<< <i>Some other thoughts on unopened
Basketball-Without a doubt there is significantly less 1987-88 Fleer basketball than 1986-87. They cut production drastically due to the well documented lack of interest. The 1987-88 fleer set is gorgeous too. If there was at least one big rookie card in that set, it would be huge. But just a bunch of 2nd year cards.
Football-I happen to think that there were a bunch of miscalculations on how much 1989 Score was produced. It seemed to shoot to $20 a pack overnight due to it's perceived scarcity, but that stuff is still everywhere and everyone owns a Barry Sanders
Baseball - I believe the sleeping giant is 1976 Topps Baseball. I think it is much more rare than people realize. 1975 was a tough year for Topps as the minis got no interest and they stepped up production on the regular issue. So in 1976 they cut back quite a bit. Talking to fellow collectors, there have been very few confirmed. But there seems to be a lot of 1975
Hockey- Canada is the place to go to find unopened OPC. Canadians are a unique group. They might be sitting on thousands of dollars worth of unopened and not really care too much about it. They sell when they get around to it
Steve, can you confirm the lack of 1976 Baseball out there? >>
1976 Topps baseball is one of my favorite issues from the 70s. Definitely a tougher year to find than either 1975 or 1977.
This box is a bit dusty and beat up, but it's still one of my personal favorites...
Mine too Tim. I have maybe seen 3 1976 unopened rack boxes in my life and seen much more 1975, 1974, 77. What a great box to own
TheClockworkAngelCollection
and yes, this has been a great thread.
i would say there are at least 25 cases out there, somewhere.
WTB: PSA 1 - PSA 3 Centered, High Eye Appeal 1950's Mantle
<< <i>This thread has been a great discussion and has been that, a discussion. The reason I don't chime in much at all is that threads turn from discussion, into arguments, quite often. At that, point, I am no longer interested in even reading any further.
Again, I am only telling my opinion from my experience.
I agree with Roger that I would be shocked if there were zero cases.
However............anytime a conversation starts with:
I know a guy.....
I heard of a guy......
Back in 1986......
I collector/dealer once told me.......
I friend of mine knows someone.......
You pretty much don't know what comes after the dots is true of not. I want to know of one sealed case. I don't want to know of 3,5,10 or 100. I want to know of one case.
Everything that follows with: I know a guy.......
still doesn't prove there is a case. Maybe my offer of $1000 to see one doens't matter to anyone with money. Maybe I should offer just to see a picture of one next to a copy of todays newspaper with the date on it. This person can then call me a dunderhead for thinking one doesn't exist.
Is it just coincidence that everyone who owns a case:
A)Doesn't need the money
C) Has never shown anyone the case (I mean, nobody has ever said they SAW the cases, they just know a guy who has one)
D) That I cant come up with a dealer who has sold one in the last 20 years
Also, I hear them all. I also have been told that there are 2 cases and 20 boxes of 1952 Topps baseball high number wax in South Carolina. That there are multiple cases of 1958 Topps baseball wax in New Jersey. The guy has a $50,000 old truck on blocks in his front yard and doesn't need the money to sell the 58 cases. (So anyone out in NJ who knows of someone with a $50,000 Sanford and Sons truck on blocks in the front yard, you may want to knock on the door). A dealer some may remember in Chicago named D. Long. He told me he had 5 of every wax case from 1970 to 1980 in all sports. But yet he got caught sleeping under his booth one night because he claimed he had nowhere to go. I keep hearing of a collector in MN. who has 10-20 of each wax box, 1957 through 1967, from each series. There is an old time candy person in California with unopened baseball wax cases from 1960 to present, many of each........
Now, I am not calling them liars. I would never do that. Harry Reid calls other Americans liars, but I would hesitate to ever do that.
However, each one of these stories also started with......I know a guy.........but not 1 pack of anything has ever been seen or heard from about these stories.
See what I'm getting at? I can only say from personal experience I don't know of any cases.
However, I do know a guy who told me that he once saw a unicorn in his front yard..............
Great going on this thread guys!! >>
Thanks for your inputs Steve. I have heard several of these stories as well and probably contributed to one of them. But I think the one I mentioned was real. I stress was because I think the inventory was probably cleared out long ago. That would be the one about the candy store owner in CA. I never asked where the store owner lived but CA would make sense based on the dealer who sold the inventory was located. Back in the early to mid-90s, there was an unopened dealer called 'Perfect Card Company'. It was an older man and his wife (I think his name was Emil Bollman but I'm not 100% certain). They set up at shows and had an incredible unopened inventory. I bought from them at the Frank and Sons show and Anaheim national. That's where I bought my 1962, 1963, 1968, 1969, 1970 and 1971 packs from. I pulled them from full and mostly full boxes that they were breaking. They said they got their inventory from a retired candy store owner who would sell them some product each year at tax time. Maybe that was just a story they were telling but they always reloaded their inventory from year to year. They had most years from the 1960s and 1970s, mostly baseball and football. They claimed their source also had a few late 50s wax boxes but didn't want to sell those and I never saw 50s packs in their booth. I mentioned them on the boards a few times and am shocked nobody remembers them. They had a big banner behind their table with their company name. This was around the same time you were breaking a massive 1970 baseball vending run. My buddy took a Polaroid of their booth/display but he misplaced it over the years. He's in the process of moving and I asked him to keep a look out for the photo as he's organizing. If he can find it, I'll post the picture here.
Topps Heritage - Trade Page
<< <i>Some other thoughts on unopened
Steve, can you confirm the lack of 1976 Baseball out there? >>
I've been in the market for a box or two for some time, and can say it's difficult to come by. There were at least three boxes publicly sold last year (two auction house sales and one BBCE). Unfortunately I didn't pay up. While I have seen more 1975 cello, I haven't seen anything in the way of wax. 1977 has also been extremely difficult. Seen zero wax boxes in the last year.
I guess I'm not surprised by the lack of Mantle rookies, the "mom threw my cards out" story seemed to make sense and have merit as I was growing up. But the relatively recent chance to score this gold mine of 86 fleer basketball just blows my mind. Unreal.
Shawn
<< <i>As one of the guys who said "I know a guy...", let me state that I have no proof and I really have no idea if the guy is full of it, although i have no specific reasons to doubt him either. So let's take my report with a grain of salt until known otherwise. I will, however, reach out to him and let steve's offer be known....at the very least i will attempt to get some sort of proof. I will let you all know what i find, but I have no problem having my report considered "unlikely" until further proof. >>
parkerj - please do keep us posted on if the case really exists and thanks for your honesty on not really having any proof at this stage. Fingers crossed this will be more than just an "I know a guy..."
Also, anyone else find it amazing that Tim has found a way to bring his 1970's unopened collection even into this thread?
I have to add my picture of this 76 rack also since I agree it is a favorite. But didn't BBCE have two 1976 cello boxes for sell last year one of which we broke in a group break?
Jim
60's OPC packs
72 BB, 60's FB, 71FB, 73FB, 74FB, 75FB, 76FB, 78FB Rack Packs
72 and earlier BB cello
There was one box, but it was not an original one, it was put together with star packs and (IIRC) packs with Reds on top (no, it wasn't Mark's box, lol)...
Nice box, Jim!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
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<< <i>
1976 Topps baseball is one of my favorite issues from the 70s. Definitely a tougher year to find than either 1975 or 1977.
This box is a bit dusty and beat up, but it's still one of my personal favorites... >>
Awesome rack boxes Tim and MacrosB!
Topps Heritage - Trade Page
<< <i>It I can find unopened boxes monthly of anything from the 1970's (with the exception of 1971 Baseball), but tracking down rookie boxes for Jordan and Gretzky continues to elude me. >>
Do you just buy or buy and sell? There are several ones I've been hunting for a couple years without seeing one. Same with BBCE.
I don't currently have a 1986/87 wax box but have had them. They are out there. Ask any major auction house's consignment director.
Didn't ask his name, and wouldn't recognize him again if I saw him. But obviously a hard meeting to forget.
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<< <i>It I can find unopened boxes monthly of anything from the 1970's (with the exception of 1971 Baseball), but tracking down rookie boxes for Jordan and Gretzky continues to elude me. >>
Do you just buy or buy and sell? There are several ones I've been hunting for a couple years without seeing one. Same with BBCE.
I don't currently have a 1986/87 wax box but have had them. They are out there. Ask any major auction house's consignment director. >>
Thanks for the replies. I primarily just buy, but will sell things from time to time when I need to free up cash for a larger purchase. I am kicking myself for not grabbing a box from BBCE right after the 2012 National when they last surfaced. Been a long drought finding another since then. I would love to add one to my Jordan collection.
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<< <i>
<< <i>It I can find unopened boxes monthly of anything from the 1970's (with the exception of 1971 Baseball), but tracking down rookie boxes for Jordan and Gretzky continues to elude me. >>
Do you just buy or buy and sell? There are several ones I've been hunting for a couple years without seeing one. Same with BBCE.
I don't currently have a 1986/87 wax box but have had them. They are out there. Ask any major auction house's consignment director. >>
Thanks for the replies. I primarily just buy, but will sell things from time to time when I need to free up cash for a larger purchase. I am kicking myself for not grabbing a box from BBCE right after the 2012 National when they last surfaced. Been a long drought finding another since then. I would love to add one to my Jordan collection. >>
I "think" there are still at least 2 cases in existence. Don't take my word however....I'm just a "guy who knows a guy", or more accurately "a guy who knows a girl".
<< <i>About a year and a half ago a guy at a bigger show locally (comes 1x or 2x a year to Mpls) said he had 10 or 11 boxes. He had 2 boxes on display so could only verify those....think he was asking $14k/box? Not the type of show where someone would spend that much cash, but cool to see a box on display.
Didn't ask his name, and wouldn't recognize him again if I saw him. But obviously a hard meeting to forget. >>
I know who you are talking about--that guy has some great stories about the time he was more into the hobby (until early 1990s I think) including the infamous Upper Deck French hockey scam.
<< <i>
<< <i>About a year and a half ago a guy at a bigger show locally (comes 1x or 2x a year to Mpls) said he had 10 or 11 boxes. He had 2 boxes on display so could only verify those....think he was asking $14k/box? Not the type of show where someone would spend that much cash, but cool to see a box on display.
Didn't ask his name, and wouldn't recognize him again if I saw him. But obviously a hard meeting to forget. >>
I know who you are talking about--that guy has some great stories about the time he was more into the hobby (until early 1990s I think) including the infamous Upper Deck French hockey scam. >>
Glad someone else can back me up and that I'm not crazy.
Have to ask - what is the UD French Hockey scam? Never heard of that.
A few releases are like this. I also doubt any 1979 OPC Hockey cases exist. Have those ever come up for sale in last several years?
1986-87 Fleer Case on eBay
<< <i>Long time reader on forums, but this needs to be added
1986-87 Fleer Case on eBay >>
See if you can claim your $1000 BBCE prize.
<< <i>1986-87 Fleer Case on eBay >>
Title: FACTORY-SEALED-CASE
Description: This *was* an ORIGINAL FACTORY SEALED CASE
It's amazing that a seller still feels he needs to use a dishonest title even when he has a such a rare and sought-after item.
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<< <i>1986-87 Fleer Case on eBay >>
Title: FACTORY-SEALED-CASE
Description: This *was* an ORIGINAL FACTORY SEALED CASE
It's amazing that a seller still feels he needs to use a dishonest title even when he has a such a rare and sought-after item. >>
Would '55% FACTORY SEALED CASE' be better?
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.