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silver breaking down?

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  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,949 ✭✭✭✭✭
    i don't expect to see 26.

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • mrpaseomrpaseo Posts: 4,753 ✭✭✭


    << <i>haven't had to check it everyday like a stock

    Why would you have to check a stock everyday? >>

    o

    I check our mutual funds daily (including weekends)... some some say I'm a little OCD...
  • CakesCakes Posts: 3,640 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>haven't had to check it everyday like a stock

    Why would you have to check a stock everyday? >>



    Well with a round or bar of silver I don't have to worry about the company sliding or even failing from insider trading, SEC violations, corruption, a weak CEO or Board of Directors, etc...
    Successful coin BST transactions with Gerard and segoja.

    Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
  • CakesCakes Posts: 3,640 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>that's a nice long horizon, best wishes >>



    Thank you B.

    Don't get me wrong I have some money in stocks also.
    Successful coin BST transactions with Gerard and segoja.

    Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
  • VanHalenVanHalen Posts: 4,031 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>i don't expect to see 26. >>



    I hope you are right! image
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,949 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>i don't expect to see 26. >>



    I hope you are right! image >>


    I've been wrong many times before.

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • jdimmickjdimmick Posts: 9,691 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Youll see lower than 26 when they pull the plug on QE, at years end, you can take it to the bank!

  • jdimmickjdimmick Posts: 9,691 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Ill tell you something else that's happening:

    I personally feel QE is all but done by years end, but if I am wrong still here is a big problem

    Each and everytime we have a big sell off, its make people more and more afraid to jump back in a buy. They know that its only going to sell off again in time, and usually when you least expect it.
    limits the buyers, they are starting to not trust it, (I am not talking about the people who buy as a place to store wealth) , but the ones who like buying to make a few bucks. IMO, if you pull out the people who buy it to try and make a play on it, you could shave another 5-10 bucks off the price.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,949 ✭✭✭✭✭
    What will determines the fate of PM prices is the perceived risk in alternate investments. Equities, bonds and the dollar are currently killing PMs for this reason. What one must keep an eye on is events that affect the risk in those three areas. While most believe pulling the plug on QE will have a negative affect on PMs, I feel the negative affect it will have on equities and bonds will be a plus for PMs. The "new" QE money didn't go into PMs, closing the spigot will take its toll on bonds and equities. Don't forget the trillions in derivatives just waiting to blow up. The whole system is so fragile I can't think of any safer place to be than in metals.

    Also affecting PMs is a market that has declared recovery is upon us. It will soon realize it is just an illusion. A slowdown in worldwide money printing is also taking a toll on PMs, but Japan just announced a game changer with the BOJ getting ready to release a $1.4 trillion stimulus.

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,904 ✭✭✭✭✭
    So why has silver dropped 20%+ since this was announced?

    I don't really know, but I will think about it. Silver reacts differently than gold, in terms of the economy and that being the case - if stocks are up, it should also mean that it is anticipated that business activity will pick up as well, correct? That being the case, silver should be up in anticipation of higher demand.

    The fact that silver isn't responding to anticipated higher demand - might be saying something important, eh?

    Maybe we'll get to see how silver does in it's role as a monetary metal sometime in the not-too-distant future. I truly think that none of the classic market valuation methods can be considered reliable now. There are simply too many false indicators and too much false data.

    So why has silver dropped? I honestly don't know the real answer, but I can certainly speculate. Market emotion, I suppose - but not alot else. Got any ideas about that, Dave?
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • bronco2078bronco2078 Posts: 10,244 ✭✭✭✭✭


    Silver hasn't dropped at all if you are talking about what silver eagles are selling for on ebay. Roughly $35 each same as last week image

    Ebay is a very good indicator of the price of silver. The kind of silver that needs to be actually dug out of the ground.



    I found more guys willing to sell me gold which surprised me and so I bought that. image
  • VanHalenVanHalen Posts: 4,031 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>...There are simply too many false indicators and too much false data... >>



    This. Also known as the "Inefficient Market Hypothesis". image
  • nibannynibanny Posts: 2,761


    << <i>Silver hasn't dropped at all if you are talking about what silver eagles are selling for on ebay. Roughly $35 each same as last week image

    Ebay is a very good indicator of the price of silver. >>



    You are right on both points.
    Though, I noticed that eBay usually adjusts itself to these big drops in a week or more.
    People start bidding too early...
    The member formerly known as Ciccio / Posts: 1453 / Joined: Apr 2009
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,904 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Tulving isn't showing any shortages of silver in bulk, and their prices are still pretty consistantly tied to spot so I can't say that silver is in a bifurcated mode yet, nor can I say that it's an inefficient market, other than in terms of smaller quantities (which always command higher premiums anyhow).

    I still can't say that I know, in economic terms why silver has dropped other than some emotion in the market. If it's just emotion, it will also run the other direction at some point. Silver has always been more volatile than gold, it's just hard for me to convince myself that I know what's really going on.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • bronco2078bronco2078 Posts: 10,244 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Silver hasn't dropped at all if you are talking about what silver eagles are selling for on ebay. Roughly $35 each same as last week image

    Ebay is a very good indicator of the price of silver. >>



    You are right on both points.
    Though, I noticed that eBay usually adjusts itself to these big drops in a week or more.
    People start bidding too early... >>




    I don't know if thats true though. Even if I bid a max of 35 days before the drop if people were really spooked bidder number #2 wouldn't run me up to 35 if he didn't want to go to 34 himself

    Anyway its the snipe that gets it to 35 right? and that happens 3 seconds before the end.

  • nibannynibanny Posts: 2,761


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>Silver hasn't dropped at all if you are talking about what silver eagles are selling for on ebay. Roughly $35 each same as last week image

    Ebay is a very good indicator of the price of silver. >>



    You are right on both points.
    Though, I noticed that eBay usually adjusts itself to these big drops in a week or more.
    People start bidding too early... >>




    I don't know if thats true though. Even if I bid a max of 35 days before the drop if people were really spooked bidder number #2 wouldn't run me up to 35 if he didn't want to go to 34 himself

    Anyway its the snipe that gets it to 35 right? and that happens 3 seconds before the end. >>



    While I may agree with you, I still see auctions for ASE ending in two days bid up at $32-33 already.
    Anyway, I may have been wrong in my assumption but I am curious to hear your reasoning about why the price of silver on eBay is still $35/oz.
    I have usually noticed that the prices on eBay are the current on the market plus the 10% fee. I found it interesting.
    The member formerly known as Ciccio / Posts: 1453 / Joined: Apr 2009
  • bronco2078bronco2078 Posts: 10,244 ✭✭✭✭✭


    I agree that sellers that post buy nows might add fees to spot when deciding to price a listing. But I don't think there is a connection to fees when you look at auctions. Most bidders have no clue what we pay in fees when we sell.


    Go look at franklin halfs. Those are around $15 delivered for one coin in circulated condition. Thats $41 an ounceimage


    Who bids on one franklin at a time? People that want physical silver but don't have enough money available to buy a roll at a time is my guess . Those people think its worth 41$ an ounce. That is what they are dollar cost averaging in at right now.

    Before some of the prices were a little high because buyers were taking advantage of combined shipping to get multiple items from the same seller. With the big uptick in free shipping that doesn't work as well anymore.















  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,661 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Silver hasn't dropped at all if you are talking about what silver eagles are selling for on ebay. Roughly $35 each same as last week image

    Ebay is a very good indicator of the price of silver. The kind of silver that needs to be actually dug out of the ground. . image >>




    It sounds like you're talking about collector silver coins stamped pretty that someone handles individually and mails to you.

    Silver in 1000 oz ingots and 5000 ounce contracts trades for spot.

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • bronco2078bronco2078 Posts: 10,244 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>[

    It sounds like you're talking about collector silver coins stamped pretty that someone handles individually and mails to you.

    Silver in 1000 oz ingots and 5000 ounce contracts trades for spot. >>





    5000 oz contracts I think have nothing to do with physical at all. Nothing will ever convince me that drops like what we saw this week are driven by industrial demand . It's just silly to assume some entity that uses silver would wake up on a Tuesday and decide to value silver a dollar lower at 10.43 AM .



    I never used to think about exit strategy but I do now and I don't see the 1000's especially trading at spot more likely a discount to spot . Even 100 ounce bars are too big.

    Even if you could get spot for 1000 ounce bars how is the buyer going to pay for them? I'm not taking any personal checks for $27,000 . If you go to a B & M you will get a line of garbage about how illiquid they are and how you have to take a haircut because of that.






  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,904 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Nothing will ever convince me that drops like what we saw this week are driven by industrial demand .

    That's what I'm saying. If (industrial) demand was up, silver would be up. Something's not right, and I suspect it is because the data is a lie.

    I never used to think about exit strategy but I do now

    I still don't worry about "getting out" of the precious metals market. I see my participation as part of the fabric of rebuilding capitalism.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • bronco2078bronco2078 Posts: 10,244 ✭✭✭✭✭


    I'm not worried about getting out , I'm just adjusting my buying habits to go with thinks that are liquid when selling. Thats why I'm buying wedding bands now with no stones and ignoring bracelets earrings brooches and all that rubbish . Although I did snag a better date half sovereign at melt. I'm still an opportunist if something presents itself.

    I don't want to have to convince buyers that they need my 2000 coin lot of 50% Australian sixpence , even though the coin collector in me likes stuff like that I have come to see that buyers are going to be less than excited when presented with that.

    The thing about exit strategy's is you don't know when you might need them but you want them to be quick and painless.




  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,904 ✭✭✭✭✭
    It may seem a bit wierd, but I have a bunch of nickels in rolls and a bunch of clad halves that I kept buying long after I should've stopped buying them. They aren't even worth trying to dump.

    Now, I've started thinking that even these coins will be useful in some ways. Yeah, I know. Doomsday prepper. Yeah, I know.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • kiyotekiyote Posts: 5,577 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>It may seem a bit wierd, but I have a bunch of nickels in rolls and a bunch of clad halves that I kept buying long after I should've stopped buying them. They aren't even worth trying to dump.

    Now, I've started thinking that even these coins will be useful in some ways. Yeah, I know. Doomsday prepper. Yeah, I know. >>



    I have about $300 in nickels I got in rolls from the bank sitting around in a bucket. Not sure what to do other than just park the bucket in the basement and wait. Maybe one day I'll get a hot air balloon and can use it for ballast.
    "I'll split the atom! I am the fifth dimension! I am the eighth wonder of the world!" -Gef the talking mongoose.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,949 ✭✭✭✭✭
    nice strength on Friday

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • VanHalenVanHalen Posts: 4,031 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Not really behaving like an industrial metal today! image

    Silver is only money? image


  • << <i>Not really behaving like an industrial metal today! image

    Silver is only money? image >>




    I think it's 50-50. Silver is like the bi-polar kid sister of gold. She gets really excited and really depressed at times.
  • CakesCakes Posts: 3,640 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>nice strength on Friday >>



    Agreed, yet almost no posts today.
    Successful coin BST transactions with Gerard and segoja.

    Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
  • Follow up post on gold and silver at Fundamental View.

    Just a word of caution: do not read if you are the type to hang on Sinclair's every word as the gospel.

    (FV surmises that the bull market in metals has already ended and the dollar is getting ready to launch.)
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,661 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Thanks for the link Honolulu, saves me a lot of typing, it's almost exactly what I would write if I had the time and gumption

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,904 ✭✭✭✭✭
    A differing opinion. Likes cash. Oblivious to debt. His blog is a misnomer and has a Technical View, not a Fundamental View. Everyone has their own interpretation and opinion. That's what makes a market. He's a chart watcher, not a fundamental analyst, let's be clear about that.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,188 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The dollar index is going to 100.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,949 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>The dollar index is going to 100. >>


    Not any time soon, FOMC will not let it happen. I actually expect them to knock it down to bring up gold to slow the flood of gold to the east.

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong



  • << <i>Everyone has their own interpretation and opinion. That's what makes a market. He's a chart watcher, not a fundamental analyst, let's be clear about that. >>



    I don't necessarily agree with him on everything, just keeping an open mind.

    Permanent bullishness on anything is a disease. His blog sobers me up after I've drunk too much of the Kool-Aid.image
  • Bayard1908Bayard1908 Posts: 4,054 ✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>The dollar index is going to 100. >>


    Not any time soon, FOMC will not let it happen. I actually expect them to knock it down to bring up gold to slow the flood of gold to the east. >>



    Do you think this for any reason other than because Sinclair said so?
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>The dollar index is going to 100. >>




    Maybe .100.

    This current 1 yr dollar cycle is due to bottom within 0-2 months. How's it going to get to 100 by then when all the competing world currencies have started to turn the corner?
    The dollar is due for a 3 yr cycle low around May 2014. There's not time to move up to 100 and then return to 52-82 by that time. USDX at 100 doesn't fit into BB's plans.
    They want the dollar to beggar they neighbor just like everyone else. A nice even-keel dollar in the 76-84 is what they want. However, an "even-keel" dollar in that range doesn't
    stop the purchasing power of it from declining. That's a given just like every other fiat currency in the world. The dollar can stay at 80 for the next 10 years and still lose 50% of its
    buying power against a standard basket of goods & services. The commercials have usually been on the right side of the dollar futures. If it's going to 100, it's not any time soon
    as comms are positioned 10-1 short/long with a net 60,000 short contracts. They are just biding their time waiting for the dollar to pull back.

    Silver has experienced a 20% drop since QE was announced because a ton more paper silver contracts were dumped on the market. The amount of physical silver available has
    been drying up and moving east. Try to get 5,000 oz bars of silver on the comex by settling in paper. The exchange will do everything in their power to force you to settle up in cash
    (or SLV shares).

    GSR is about 3-6 days from completing this current 7-8 week cycle. It's possible it has already peaked. That big gap at 53 probably has to be filled first before going any higher.
    If Ben pulls the plug on QE then who will buy our TBonds? The FED has been buying 70% of them. Rising interest rates will blow up the $250 TRILL in otc interest rate contracts held
    by the too-big-to-jail banks. Japan has just announced that they will be initiating a QE much larger than the FED's $85 BILL/month. The FED has already begun another QE program
    by pumping the Monetary Base (M0) by $400 BILL since October. That's money that the big banks can bet with. M2 continues to increase at $800-$1,000 BILL per year. There's no
    chance QE ever ends....only what we call it will change. The FED's primary weapon these days is jaw-boning the varying definitions and interpretations of what it is doing. But they don't
    actually change anything.
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,949 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>The dollar index is going to 100. >>


    Not any time soon, FOMC will not let it happen. I actually expect them to knock it down to bring up gold to slow the flood of gold to the east. >>



    Do you think this for any reason other than because Sinclair said so? >>


    Yes I do. There is very little question gold is moving from the west to the east, especially as the price drops. FED/FOMC attitude on (and control of) gold price is about the only thing that can slow it down.

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • DoubleEagle59DoubleEagle59 Posts: 8,326 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Added 200 oz of Ag today!
    "Gold is money, and nothing else" (JP Morgan, 1912)

    "“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)

    "I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
  • nibannynibanny Posts: 2,761


    << <i>Added 200 oz of Ag today! >>



    image
    The member formerly known as Ciccio / Posts: 1453 / Joined: Apr 2009
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,949 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Added 200 oz of Ag today! >>


    no guts, no glory. good move.

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,904 ✭✭✭✭✭
    << Added 200 oz of Ag today! >>

    Well, you're already $150 better off.image
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,661 ✭✭✭✭✭
    "on paper" image

    the profit or loss is realized upon the sale of the asset, as you well know

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,949 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>The dollar index is going to 100. >>


    Dollar rallies should be used to buy into something with a brighter future.

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,904 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I don't necessarily agree with him on everything, just keeping an open mind.

    I'm just pointing out that his blog doesn't include any fundamental analysis at all, and that is what he implies by naming his blog "Fundamental View".


    Permanent bullishness on anything is a disease. His blog sobers me up after I've drunk too much of the Kool-Aid.

    Oh, I definitely agree about that. However, I find Baley and cohodk to be really good counterpoint observers when I feel too exhuberant toward metals. And there's enough really good posters here that we can usually stay out of too much trouble just by staying "tuned in".image
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,124 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>i don't expect to see 26. >>



    How about $25 silver?image
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 44,365 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>i don't expect to see 26. >>



    How about $25 silver?image >>



    How about $10 ? or $5.... where it stagnated for a quarter century ?
  • DrBusterDrBuster Posts: 5,409 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>i don't expect to see 26. >>



    How about $25 silver?image >>



    How about $10 ? or $5.... where it stagnated for a quarter century ? >>



    If the dollar lets gas go back to a buck or less, my insurance not be mandatory and expensive for my 1 visit a year to the doc or to not have any auto accidents, my burgers and chicken wings and other bbq supplies not be expensive, etc etc etc, then I will gladly welcome sub $10 silver. What are the odds of any of that happening? With defense please.
  • CakesCakes Posts: 3,640 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>i don't expect to see 26. >>



    How about $25 silver?image >>



    How about $10 ? or $5.... where it stagnated for a quarter century ? >>



    I think the modern age of the internet has changed the data forever. With so many people online I don't think it's very accurate to look at charts the same way people did prior to the big internet boom.
    Successful coin BST transactions with Gerard and segoja.

    Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
  • tneigtneig Posts: 1,505 ✭✭✭
    Wow, what is happening. I feel like I'm getting another prostate examine!

    The price is low, and I have No ready cash because of the tax nut!


    (edited it to No)
    COA
  • $26.15 did not hold, so there's a possibility we could see $20 silver soon.
  • piecesofmepiecesofme Posts: 6,669 ✭✭✭
    100
    To forgive is to free a prisoner, and to discover that prisoner was you.
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