silver breaking down?
HonoluluDude
Posts: 2,167 ✭
HonoluluDude
Posts: 2,167 ✭
HonoluluDude
Posts: 2,167 ✭
Comments
Click on this link to see my ebay listings.
<< <i>I hope it goes to $20 that way I can feel comfortable reloading. >>
YES! I'm in at 28, 26 and 20.... where ever it goes, steady investment long term I should dollar cost average myself into a nice average priced stack... Now where can I find more fiat to trade for some real money
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
And I guess if one is going to be "in it" a dip is a buying time, and a safer outlook is long.....
The question is, are ya riding it for a long term, or waiting for the right number to get out?
ps $290 is great!
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Let's say this is the start of a downward trend. Now, I know nobody knows how long the trend could last or how low it could go, but what are some educated guesses by the masses here? >>
Most on this board think $100. Yes, I read your question.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
By what my friend was asking me last night as to what i hear about the price of silver with regards to it going up like gold in terms of price in the future and if he should keep on buying silver....I told him i really do not know if it will ever reach gold pricing so he is thinking that silver will sell for even more in the future.
With regards to him if he should keep stacking silver i said why not since he has not reached his goal of 500 oz by the end of this year. He is only at 375 oz so far accumulated since last year of 1 oz silver. What say you should he keep on buying or wait for the price of silver to go down some more before buying to complete his goal?
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If not sure what to do, keep buying in 'timed increments' over time. There is no reason to change his plan.
(gold will always be higher than silver)
Not if I buy it all first.
By what my friend was asking me last night as to what i hear about the price of silver with regards to it going up like gold in terms of price in the future and if he should keep on buying silver....I told him i really do not know if it will ever reach gold pricing so he is thinking that silver will sell for even more in the future.
With regards to him if he should keep stacking silver i said why not since he has not reached his goal of 500 oz by the end of this year. He is only at 375 oz so far accumulated since last year of 1 oz silver. What say you should he keep on buying or wait for the price of silver to go down some more before buying to complete his goal?
I'm not convinced that it isn't a mistake to buy silver in anticipation of rising prices, nor am I convinced that you should hold off buying in anticipation of lower prices. You can take any approach to saving for the future, but in my opinion the best approach is to spread that market risk out over time by buying on some kind of schedule at random prices. Even if you time it perfectly and get the absolute lowest price during every market cycle, you will still see the nominal dollar value of your stash rise and fall as silver rises and falls. Focus on the accumulation, and not so much on the "dollar value".
We all know what is happening to the currency, so it's not rocket science to assume an upward trend in the price of silver, whether it is actively being manipulated or not. Your friend has the right focus, but whether or not he can reach his goal of 500 oz. shouldn't necessarily depend on the timeframe. Stuff happens in life, and having the methodology in place is at least as important than is setting an arbitrary goal.
Yeah, yeah - good timing is nice to do, and if you are able to time your acquisitions well - cool!
I knew it would happen.
I continue to be an incremental physical buyer. For those that feel now is not the time to buy consider it may also not be the time to sell.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
But but but we heard that America and the Dollar are dead and silver to da mooooon?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>cash? wai..wha? FIAT cash?
But but but we heard that America and the Dollar are dead and silver to da mooooon? >>
yes, very fiat cash. A temporary move in a time of growing uncertainty. See 2009 charts and what followed. More to come. Dollar not dead, dying a slow death. Just another piece of paper you don't want to be caught in when the music stops. Right now the music is loud and rockin'. Enjoy now, it's not an endless loop tape. Silver to da moon when the dollar slow death march resumes.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
In my humble opinion, PM's are in for a significant lag. The demand that drove up the prices for gold+silver just isn't there anymore:
1. Culture that revered gold and silver in the Asian countries is changing- you don't need 10 oz of gold to give to your spouse for your wedding.
2. Manufacturers are recycling electronics so that instead of buying more gold and silver to make key parts in computer chips, they're just recycling the old silver+gold found in older chips (ever wonder why start-ups are asking you for your old electronics? Here's one reason..)
3. People really speculated that our government would default and the US dollar would be worth squat. I'm not crazy about our government, but they've kept the dollar from defaulting (for now). The Fed's done a good job, in my opinion, of keeping inflation around 1-2%. Reality is setting in for a lot of people that maybe doomsday isn't around the corner.
A reason to buy gold/silver: protection against.......a black swan. For those of you who aren't familiar with that book, a "black swan" is an unexpected event that you can only explain in retrospect. It's very random and pretty much impossible to predict without phenomenal luck (instead of rational thought). What I mean by "protection against a black swan" is that by having gold/silver in your savings, and not expecting it to go up or down much, at least you are putting yourself in a position where if an unexpected event did happen, those PM bars of yours will skyrocket in value.
Example: of your $100,000, you put $20,000 in gold/silver. Do you see silver halfway where it is today? It would take a lot of power to bring silver down to $14/oz overnight, or even over the course of a few weeks. And gold at $775 an ounce... please sign me up for that! I think, though, that the opposite is more likely to happen: a mine shuts down, something in our gov't happens (a possible rating downgrade?), a war breaks out, or something as simple as a load of traders pushing the price of gold up on the exchange. Your silver+gold will be there to reap the benefit. You won't see it looking forward, but you'll be glad you had it, looking backward. When it's worth $35,000, your 15% will either lessen the blow of the unexpected event, or enhance your winnings if the unexpected event did you well.
My personal speculation (not advice I'd give anyone) is that gold will go just below $1,500, based off the demand buyers are showing. Silver will go to $20/oz.
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America is much less dead than Europe, hence the rise in the USD and the drop in gold (in nominal dollar terms, mostly).
Silver has been reacting as an industrial metal lately, more so than as a monetary metal. If anyone wants to remain oblivious to what is happening in Europe, they will be very dismayed when it happens here as well.
I brewed some coffee this morning, thinking that when the coffee-producing nations stop accepting dollars, the price of coffee will be something to behold.
There's more afoot in the world than simply what's going on in Europe, but Europe is a scary template for what always happens and what always happens is happening here as well.
A strong military is one thing. A screwed up world trade system is a whole different animal.
I knew it would happen.
to be able to buy more !!!
If you're a PM perma bull don't read his blog, it will piss you off. He often goes against the opinions of the Sinclairs and Turks of the gold world.
That said, keep your eye on the key $26 level. If that is breached, you will see a nice buying opportunity.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Where's the next support level, $19 and $1250? >>
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
WOW!!! Its obvious you "dont bother with "technical graphs"".
A person following the graphs would have stayed away from silver for over a year and a half. The 200dma--the simplest of indicators--has been flat to down since 2011. And techical analysis has been widely demonstrated in these very threads.
It is only the "buy the dips", "QE to infinity", "manipulative bankster theorists" that have been burnt. And it aint gonna be over until the aforementioned are crispy.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I'm in it for the L O N G R U N . . . Still think Silver is a great investment!!
(Could always get more if it goes down even more
Blessings
<< <i>A person following the graphs would have stayed away from silver for over a year and a half. The 200dma--the simplest of indicators--has been flat to down since 2011. And techical analysis has been widely demonstrated in these very threads. It is only the "buy the dips", "QE to infinity", "manipulative bankster theorists" that have been burnt. And it aint gonna be over until the aforementioned are crispy. >>
Only people getting burned are the quick flippers. Long term holders are smartly looking at the fundamentals, not the graphs. I've seen this play out the same way a number of times since $9 silver. Fundamentals haven't changed, only stronger, in silver's favor - that's why we are not still at $9. Metals markets are no different than equities except instead of getting pumped up they are getting pumped down. Anyone that doesn't agree the FED and FOMC have STRONGLY influenced markets needs to find better reading material.
Disclaimer: I read all points of view to better form my own opinion. I even read Baley and Cohodk and while I respect their knowledge I seldom agree with them concerning PMs.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Do you see silver halfway where it is today? It would take a lot of power to bring silver down to $14/oz overnight, or even over the course of a few weeks.
Well, some, would consider the events of 2008 to be a black swan. Silver lost about 37% in about 4 weeks, then lost another 31% over the next 10 weeks. Please show me the protection? Dont argue that over the next year you got your money back, because the fact is that silver lost 2/3rds of its value during a time when it was supposed to "protect".
Silver, and most other assets, are usually good buys AFTER a black swan, not before.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Silver lost about 37% in about 4 weeks, then lost another 31% over the next 10 weeks. Please show me the protection? Dont argue that over the next year you got your money back, because the fact is that silver lost 2/3rds of its value during a time when it was supposed to "protect".Silver, and most other assets, are usually good buys AFTER a black swan, not before. >>
As most of us know a financial crisis "dash to cash" negatively affects most all asset classes. For this reason I agree that the good buys come after a black swan. I notice you didn't mention what happened with silver prices after those first 14 weeks. If I recall correctly they went from 9.17 to 45.83 over the next two and one-half years. I'll conceed you are correct about silver when it drops back below 9.17.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Especially when it's already undervalued as it is. I firmly think there is very very strong support around $22, if it happens to tumble to that range.
It's all kind of puzzling right now. I made a few stops after work and neither B&M had much to speak of (and these aren't the kind of dealers that hide everything when prices fall) and they both said absolutely no one is selling. One said it's a 9:1 buying to selling ratio.
<< <i>A reason to buy gold/silver: protection against.......a black swan
Do you see silver halfway where it is today? It would take a lot of power to bring silver down to $14/oz overnight, or even over the course of a few weeks.
Well, some, would consider the events of 2008 to be a black swan. Silver lost about 37% in about 4 weeks, then lost another 31% over the next 10 weeks. Please show me the protection? Dont argue that over the next year you got your money back, because the fact is that silver lost 2/3rds of its value during a time when it was supposed to "protect".
Silver, and most other assets, are usually good buys AFTER a black swan, not before. >>
Hey man, I don't know who you, you don't know me, so take it a bit easy, k?
Let me respond to your first post: throughout the past year or so, most articles (I'd guess 95%+) I've read featuring tech analysis has been plagued by bullish predictions. Pardon me for associating "bullish predictions" with "failed results," based on the prices you and I have seen. If there was a technical chart with a bearish outlook, that's nice; I still wouldn't trust them, regardless of whether their prediction is right or wrong, because I don't agree with the basis of technical charts. One's way of thinking, or arriving at a conclusion, could be wrong- even if it coincidentally produced a correct result every now and then. And you know what? If it produces consistently correct results, I'd love to read more about it. Maybe I'll learn something new.
As for the second post: I actually didn't consider the events of 2008 to be a "Black Swan," and I'm not even close to being alone in that group. I saw (well, read about) bankers securitizing things they shouldn't be securitizing (since the 80's Wall Street days, of course) and taking risks on positions that a little kid would call "morally hazardous" or "conflicting interests" if you watered it down enough for him to understand. I didn't know exactly which week or month it would happen, but the expectation of such loans defaulting- and thus creating a substantial problem for banks' balance sheets- seemed pretty reasonable. I'm actually shocked so many people were surprised by it...
The thought of companies, manufacturers, and people not affording to purchase silver+gold, because of a hard recession, really did seem like a no brainer- even prior to this financial crisis happening. As I've stated before, I think a lot of demand for gold+silver wasn't really "investment" to begin with at the time, esp with the stock market hovering at really high prices (common thinking: if stocks are doing well, buy stocks!). Consumer products (jewelry, electronics, etc) commanded a bigger role in the price of PM. When s**t hits the fan like that, my gut instinct would tell me that demand for PM would drop. No black swan there (for me, anyway).
To me, the Black Swan was witnessing an otherwise fiscally conservative Fed chairman engage in heavy open market operations and pumping trillions into our nation within just a few years. I didn't think they'd bail out Wall Street to the extent that they did, and I didn't even think they'd push stimulus packages like that across the board, weakening the US dollar to become a little cheaper than the Canadian dollar. THAT was the black swan to me, and my shares in silver futures bode me quite well. I still have them today, and I am glad I kept them.
Interests:
Pre-Jump Grade Project
Toned Commemoratives
I will stick to my predictions made last year in 2012
Gold
High of $1830
Low of $1540
Silver
High of $39
Low of $19.50
Thats the trading range as I see it and I'm sticking to it!
Well,..... at least until I'm wrong anyway.
Message post: PMs in 2013 - created on Saturday December 22, 2012 11:15 AM
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How about $19, which is where I said it could go months and months ago.
And I didnt mention silver going from 9 to 45 anymore than I did GS going from 60 to 180 or F from 3 to 18. Seriously. Fact is that silver lost 62% of its value. You could buy less bread, less clothes, less furniture, with that store of value.
Silver will have its day in the sun again, but it aint gonna be tomorrow, next week, next month, or probably even next year. Yet scared people continue to bury themselves. Amazing.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I would venture to say that 95% of the articles you read were written buy PM bulls.
If it produces consistently correct results, I'd love to read more about it. Maybe I'll learn something new.
Seek and ye shall discover. The truth is out there. Its human nature to discount something we dont understand. But just because we dont understand it doesnt mean it isnt right. Look what they did to Galileo.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>The trouble with making predictions is everyone thinks they're right lol. >>
Agreed.
I am suprised with all of these going lower predictions, it has hovered around 30 for the last 2 years.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
<< <i>I'm looking at a little lower
to be able to buy more !!!
Not me, I'll buy when it starts to go up.
The name is LEE!
<< <i>
<< <i>The trouble with making predictions is everyone thinks they're right lol. >>
Agreed.
I am suprised with all of these going lower predictions, it has hovered around 30 for the last 2 years. >>
2-year chart of SLV and AGQ vs the DJIA, S&P500, and Nasdaq stock averages:
Chart
(edited to supply simple chart; interactive chart is still linked below but may not work on all computers)
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>The trouble with making predictions is everyone thinks they're right lol. >>
Agreed.
I am suprised with all of these going lower predictions, it has hovered around 30 for the last 2 years. >>
2-year chart of SLV and AGQ vs the DJIA, S&P500, and Nasdaq stock averages:
Chart: which investment "protected purchasing power" better? >>
I understand I just feel it's a much safer bet then playing the market. I bought around 200 ounces of silver at around $26 an ounce and haven't had to check it everyday like a stock, I also bought without thinking about flipping or selling until about 10 years from now.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Are we still at $85 billion/month in QE?
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
<< <i>The trouble with making predictions is everyone thinks they're right lol. >>
Agreed.
I am suprised with all of these going lower predictions, it has hovered around 30 for the last 2 years. >>
I think it also hovered around 6 for about 20 years.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Why would you have to check a stock everyday?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Geez, I leave the office for a one day road trip - and look what happens! I guess everything in the economy is fixed now.
Are we still at $85 billion/month in QE?
So why has silver dropped 20%+ since this was announced?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Proliferation of novelty-themed rounds and bullet shaped ingots, as well as cheap fake bars and rounds, suggest silver has "jumped the shark" among the general public (who is usually late to join the "hot investment" cycle, and usually ends up holding the bag, see previous bubbles in tech stocks, housing, etc) Reduced industrial and investment demand would naturally mean lower prices. They're "manipulated" downward by the market in a conspiracy of supply-and -demand economics. How much does it cost to pull silver out of the ground? Hypothetically, what would happen to prices if the ETF inflows slowed down, reversed to net redemptions and selling? Well, at least all these shiny rounds with the pretty girl on them can be hefted, handled, and jiggled around in a manly fashion as they decline in value..
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Not me, I'll buy when it starts to go up. >>
<< <i>It does appear to be losing steam. $26 around the corner? >>
It's here..took only a couple of days to get there from the above post.