Are we heading into another downward spiral?
Foo3112
Posts: 1,961
I am one of those that believes that you should just collect what you enjoy collecting and not really collect simply for investment although collecting high end cards of star players is where the money is at if you can afford that kind of stuff. I do think though that we are all entitled to try and make a little extra if we can. For example, a Pete Rose PSA 7 doesn’t seem (to me at least) like something that will change or jump too drastic (although I would be perfectly be more than content owning one that grade) but an 8 or higher is where the money is at. Same thing with the 93 Jeter SP graded 9 or higher. Anything less than that, you won’t see any return really. At least not for a long time.
Noticing prices of graded cards 10 years ago, everything was so much higher.
Here are some examples:
1984 Topps Cal Ripken PSA 8 - Selling for about $21 (Today you’ll be lucky if you can get 4.99 for it)
1990 Upperdeck Sammy Sosa PSA 9 - Selling for about $27 (This card doesn’t even sell for 1.99 more times than not)
1992 Bowman Manny Rodriguez - 8.5 - Selling for $60 (Anywhere from $1-3 today - to get it graded cost more)
1956 Roberto Clemente PSA 7 - Selling for $255 (Sells for $400+)
1961 Stan Musial PSA 3.5 - Selling for $31 (a 4 just sold at $34 with buy it now)
1968 Nolan Ryan PSA 6.5 - Selling for $450 (Can still be had today for about that same price)
So my question is, with cards constantly being graded as more and more of the same cards flooding the market, are we heading into another crash (just like the mid 90's)? Grading companies have done wondrous things for this hobby but at the time same, I see that the only thing really worth grading is mostly vintage of mostly rookie stars and vintage PSA 9’s and 8’s from the 60’s up to the mid seventies and 7’s and up from the 50’s. As for the new stuff, only a handful of modern stuff of current hot players to turn around and sell fast because as time goes on, more cards will be graded, more auto cards will come out and the prices will surely go down unless high-end graded cards of superstars worthy and hall of fame bound.
Seeing how this hobby has had it shares of ups and downs such over the years as anything else, it makes me wonder. Are we heading towards a downward spiral?
Noticing prices of graded cards 10 years ago, everything was so much higher.
Here are some examples:
1984 Topps Cal Ripken PSA 8 - Selling for about $21 (Today you’ll be lucky if you can get 4.99 for it)
1990 Upperdeck Sammy Sosa PSA 9 - Selling for about $27 (This card doesn’t even sell for 1.99 more times than not)
1992 Bowman Manny Rodriguez - 8.5 - Selling for $60 (Anywhere from $1-3 today - to get it graded cost more)
1956 Roberto Clemente PSA 7 - Selling for $255 (Sells for $400+)
1961 Stan Musial PSA 3.5 - Selling for $31 (a 4 just sold at $34 with buy it now)
1968 Nolan Ryan PSA 6.5 - Selling for $450 (Can still be had today for about that same price)
So my question is, with cards constantly being graded as more and more of the same cards flooding the market, are we heading into another crash (just like the mid 90's)? Grading companies have done wondrous things for this hobby but at the time same, I see that the only thing really worth grading is mostly vintage of mostly rookie stars and vintage PSA 9’s and 8’s from the 60’s up to the mid seventies and 7’s and up from the 50’s. As for the new stuff, only a handful of modern stuff of current hot players to turn around and sell fast because as time goes on, more cards will be graded, more auto cards will come out and the prices will surely go down unless high-end graded cards of superstars worthy and hall of fame bound.
Seeing how this hobby has had it shares of ups and downs such over the years as anything else, it makes me wonder. Are we heading towards a downward spiral?
0
Comments
Supply/demand. The number of graded cards is only getting higher and higher, so much so that PSA (thinks they) can justify increasing it's standard grading prices in 2013. Because of this, I just don't see anything that isn't considered rare (either because it's SP'd, or low pop) increasing in value. The pop reports will only get higher, which will drive down cost.
Although I'm not a pack collector (no self-control), pack collecting HAS to be where it's at, yes? Every time I/we open up a pack/box of vintage product, a vintage pack/box collector is probably out there saying, "THANK YOU!" I/We just created less supply... that creates more demand for what they have held on to.
<< <i>Same thing with the 93 Jeter SP graded 9 or higher. Anything less than that, you won’t see any return really. At least not for a long time. >>
I disagree about the Jeter card. For strictly investment purposes, I think you'll do far better in the long run with 12 PSA 8's at $100 each as opposed to 1 PSA 9 at $1200.
1) the economy is only now starting to improve after 4 years of suck. more employed = more disposable income = more people buying cards
2) demographics. related to the above, many kids who bought a lot of cards in the 80s and 90s who are now in their 30s (like me) now actually have a bit of cash to spend on cards.
Foo, the 1990 sammy sosa is a pretty bad card to compare with. I'd use the 89 UD griffey and a 90 leaf frank thomas or something for a more accurate representation, although I bet that they've both gone down a bit too. There's just a lot of those cards out there, and even though peeps like me might be getting back into the hobby, I'm choosing to go for stuff that's a bit rarer now that I have a chance to actually get some of the cards I always wanted.
In terms of supply/demand, I doubt that we'll be seeing a pop explosion of anything pre-1975 in the near future. Just have to hope that the demand stays. I think that guys like DPeck and Eagles have the right idea in going for the really rare oddball and 'non-traditional' sport stuff.
T222's PSA 1 or better
Great time to be getting out of the hobby and cashing into other pursuits IMO.
Buying Vintage, all sports.
Buying Woody Hayes, Les Horvath, Vic Janowicz, and Jesse Owens autographed items
<< <i>Are we heading towards a downward spiral? >>
no
<< <i> Quality sells....just check out MBmiller25's sells... >>
His sells have been on here for what I consider a premium. If he sells the exact same card on Ebay or through an auction house, I am sure it would sell for less.
<< <i>
<< <i> Quality sells....just check out MBmiller25's sells... >>
His sells have been on here for what I consider a premium. If he sells the exact same card on Ebay or through an auction house, I am sure it would sell for less. >>
You get what you pay for,geat cards=great $$,pretty simple.
Needs'
1972 Football-9's high#'s
1965 Football-8's
1958 Topps FB-7-8
<< <i>You get what you pay for,geat cards=great $$,pretty simple. >>
Sales is mainly about timing. I have personally been involved with $1,000 card selling fro $700 just a month later. The exact same card - nothing has changed. I can say with 100% certainty that card sales involve timing more than anything else. If you get a premium for cards, you have to start by asking a premium and be willing to sit on them.
<< <i>
<< <i>You get what you pay for,geat cards=great $$,pretty simple. >>
Sales is mainly about timing. I have personally been involved with $1,000 card selling fro $700 just a month later. The exact same card - nothing has changed. I can say with 100% certainty that card sales involve timing more than anything else. If you get a premium for cards, you have to start by asking a premium and be willing to sit on them. >>
Looked to me he sure didnt sit long,what 2-3 weeks for over $50,000 in sales between the 2 sales thread.
Needs'
1972 Football-9's high#'s
1965 Football-8's
1958 Topps FB-7-8
High grade vintage will always do pretty well I think...but I agree with some the posts above about supply and demand. And also what people are interested in collecting. There are a lot of people in their 20's and 30's that could care less about Mickey Mantle or Roberto Clemente...they are dropping loads of cash on their own current heroes or more recently retired legends like Jordan, Marino, Elway, Montana etc...I think people are still willing to drop quite a bit of cash on cards...I just think the things that are being collected is changing, and evolving. Just my opinion on what I've been experiencing.
Looking for 1970 MLB Photostamps
- uncut
Positive Transactions - tennesseebanker, Ahmanfan, Donruss, Colebear, CDsNuts, rbdjr1, Downtown1974, yankeeno7, drewsef, mnolan, mrbud60, msassin, RipublicaninMass, AkbarClone, rustywilly, lsutigers1973, julen23 and nam812, plus many others...
WTB: 2001 Leaf Rookies & Stars Longevity: Ryan Jensen #/25
As far as that list, it wasn’t the best of names but the numbers still don’t lie regardless of players unless their last names happen to be Clemente, Mantle, DiMaggio or any of those other legends. I understand what you’re saying – I’m sure there steroid allegations haven’t helped out with collectors out so here are some other worthy names.
New List – Non suspected steroid users
Ken Griffey Jr 1989 Upperdeck PSA 10 $2000
Tony Gwynn 1983 Fleer PSA 10 $600 (Can be had for under $100 today)
Robin Yount 1975 PSA 9 $600 (can be had for about $450 - $600/very strong card still)
George Brett 1975 PSA 9 $800 (This card can still fetch that card assuming it’s a real strong looking and well centered 9)
Rickey Henderson 1980 PSA 9 - $500 (Now can be had between $265 and $330 on average)
Don Mattingly 1984 Donruss PSA 10 $600 (sells for about $430-$500/another card that has held up well)
Shows that premium vintage does hold up in value rather well but considering these prices were from about 10 years ago, Im kind of shocked that some of these have stayed even stagnant in price.
<< <i>Quality sells....just check out MBmiller25's sells >>
Poor example.
MBMiller is selling cards fast and at a premium to what he would get on ebay but he's not making any money. He's selling them at his cost or slightly below.
Having said that, I do agree that quality sells but you usually need to be patient to make a profit.
actually still a good time to take that risk on a so called modern player whose potential may be reached very soon if L.A. can buy a few titles.
<< <i>
<< <i>Quality sells....just check out MBmiller25's sells >>
Poor example.
MBMiller is selling cards fast and at a premium to what he would get on ebay but he's not making any money. He's selling them at his cost or slightly below.
Having said that, I do agree that quality sells but you usually need to be patient to make a profit. >>
Levi, in your case....Price High and Wait seems to work.
As for the OP, cards and memorabilia typically reflect the economy. If we have a double dip recession, which I think is probable, then prices on cards with large pop counts will most likely go down.
IMF
<< <i>eventually there will be no packs left to rip. >>
not as long as i walk this Earth, mister.
If the card market did this well in such a crappy economy, imagine what it might do in a thriving economy like what we had in the mid 2000's...
That being said, as others have said, it's all about supply and demand. The 1989 UP Griffey is a bad investment IMO because of how many there continue to be in any grade.
The 1976 PSA 9 Brett is finite. We'll be lucky to see 3 more PSA 9's in our lifetime. I can't see that dropping off
TheClockworkAngelCollection
~ Said someone in Jan '01
WTB: 2001 Leaf Rookies & Stars Longevity: Ryan Jensen #/25
<< <i>
<< <i>Quality sells....just check out MBmiller25's sells >>
Poor example.
MBMiller is selling cards fast and at a premium to what he would get on ebay but he's not making any money. He's selling them at his cost or slightly below.
Having said that, I do agree that quality sells but you usually need to be patient to make a profit. >>
I dnt have no clue what he paid for any of his cards but have to believe he didnt break ven
or lose $$,dude was cranking out sales fast!
Needs'
1972 Football-9's high#'s
1965 Football-8's
1958 Topps FB-7-8
buy cards you like in the grade you like
<< <i>
<< <i>Are we heading towards a downward spiral? >>
no >>
As the Moody Blues sang --- " We're living in the land of make believe , trying not to let it show....."
Check out the U-6 unemployment report .
Then when someone asks " Who are you going to believe , me or your own eyes ? " , you have the answer . Always remember , there is a reason why some deal strictly in deceit .
Oh by the way , see the line below----- Sonny
<< <i>I do agree that timing is everything if your asking for a higher price but if someone is willing to pay, then that’s all that matters. The seller just might have sit on it for a lot longer. As Kirk mentioned, quality sells! I 100% agree with that. Matt was however sitting on that Aaron for quite a bit of time. Did he eventually come down from that price. I have no idea but I assume he had too.
As far as that list, it wasn’t the best of names but the numbers still don’t lie regardless of players unless their last names happen to be Clemente, Mantle, DiMaggio or any of those other legends. I understand what you’re saying – I’m sure there steroid allegations haven’t helped out with collectors out so here are some other worthy names.
New List – Non suspected steroid users
Ken Griffey Jr 1989 Upperdeck PSA 10 $2000
Tony Gwynn 1983 Fleer PSA 10 $600 (Can be had for under $100 today)
Robin Yount 1975 PSA 9 $600 (can be had for about $450 - $600/very strong card still)
George Brett 1975 PSA 9 $800 (This card can still fetch that card assuming it’s a real strong looking and well centered 9)
Rickey Henderson 1980 PSA 9 - $500 (Now can be had between $265 and $330 on average)
Don Mattingly 1984 Donruss PSA 10 $600 (sells for about $430-$500/another card that has held up well)
Shows that premium vintage does hold up in value rather well but considering these prices were from about 10 years ago, Im kind of shocked that some of these have stayed even stagnant in price. >>
Foo,
Where are you getting these prices from 10 years ago? I've been buying some of those cards for last 15 years at least and the prices were significantly lower on the ones
I'm familiar with--Henderson PSA 9 was about $200 10 years ago, while I can recall buying a couple of Bretts for around $400-$450 at that time, $400 or so for the Yount. If anything prices on those have risen since then.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Quality sells....just check out MBmiller25's sells >>
Poor example.
MBMiller is selling cards fast and at a premium to what he would get on ebay but he's not making any money. He's selling them at his cost or slightly below.
Having said that, I do agree that quality sells but you usually need to be patient to make a profit. >>
Levi, in your case....Price High and Wait seems to work. >>
I think You mean putting high end prices on low end cards.
Here is a set I collect and I wrote down the pop report on 6/1/2006
1947-66 Exhibits
6/1/2006
Set # Auth 1-2 3-4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Total
1947-66 333 5 102 147 219 215 164 35 1 888
1% 11% 17% 25% 24% 18% 4% 0% 100%
Current Pop Report 12/7/2012
Set # Auth 1-2 3-4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Total
1947-66 333 67 123 845 1543 1797 1294 943 211 10 6766
2% 12% 23% 27% 19% 14% 3% 0% 100%
888 graded in 2006 now 6766 in 2012, ouch. Is there any wonder most of these cards are down in value, the pop has gone crazy, my guess is this same scenario is happening in tons of other sets, easy to see prices down looking at that.
I don't own any SMR's from that time but only a Beckett from 2001 and they had prices in the back of the guide for graded cards when they started becoming popular I guess. I'm not saying that they're 100% accurate because prices do fluctuate, however, they have to be pretty close or within that range for that time at least. Since then, scandals have come out, players careers have fizzled out and one thing is fore sure, lots more of these cards have been graded. I can see a card like Rickey in a 9 might have been $500 but add 10 years to that and lots more 9's coming out, its only a matter of time before that card started to go down. It happened to the 89 Griffey UD and you cant help but to think that this trend will only continue to drop with other cards as more time and grades come out.
Am I wrong? I believe there is some truth to this. Cards from the 60's and earlier are the ones that will continue to hold true value, that is until all the 70's cards in sealed form start to dry up.
<< <i>Grote,
I don't own any SMR's from that time but only a Beckett from 2001 and they had prices in the back of the guide for graded cards when they started becoming popular I guess. I'm not saying that they're 100% accurate because prices do fluctuate, however, they have to be pretty close or within that range for that time at least. Since then, scandals have come out, players careers have fizzled out and one thing is fore sure, lots more of these cards have been graded. I can see a card like Rickey in a 9 might have been $500 but add 10 years to that and lots more 9's coming out, its only a matter of time before that card started to go down. It happened to the 89 Griffey UD and you cant help but to think that this trend will only continue to drop with other cards as more time and grades come out.
Am I wrong? I believe there is some truth to this. Cards from the 60's and earlier are the ones that will continue to hold true value, that is until all the 70's cards in sealed form start to dry up. >>
I can't speak to the more modern issues and am sure more than a few of those have significantly declined in price over the past decade, but the actual sale prices of the ones from that list that I am very familiar with (1980 Henderon RC, 1975 Brett RC and Yount RC) were much lower than those SMR prices and in line with the amounts I quoted above.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Real estate? Big risk
Gold? Prices are very high already. Big risk.
CDs? Good luck getting more than 0.1% unless you're willing to tie your money up for years.
Under the mattress? Watch inflation eat it away.
Stock market? Big risk.
Collectables are actually a pretty good investment in terms of hedging inflation. So I could see more people with money fleeing to collectibles (stamps, coins, cards, classic cars, art) as a refuge in this difficult investment environment.
<< <i>Another factor to consider...where do you put your money these days?
Real estate? Big risk
Gold? Prices are very high already. Big risk.
CDs? Good luck getting more than 0.1% unless you're willing to tie your money up for years.
Under the mattress? Watch inflation eat it away.
Stock market? Big risk.
Collectables are actually a pretty good investment in terms of hedging inflation. So I could see more people with money fleeing to collectibles (stamps, coins, cards, classic cars, art) as a refuge in this difficult investment environment. >>
silver...
Looking for 1970 MLB Photostamps
- uncut
Positive Transactions - tennesseebanker, Ahmanfan, Donruss, Colebear, CDsNuts, rbdjr1, Downtown1974, yankeeno7, drewsef, mnolan, mrbud60, msassin, RipublicaninMass, AkbarClone, rustywilly, lsutigers1973, julen23 and nam812, plus many others...
<< <i>
<< <i>Another factor to consider...where do you put your money these days?
Real estate? Big risk
Gold? Prices are very high already. Big risk.
CDs? Good luck getting more than 0.1% unless you're willing to tie your money up for years.
Under the mattress? Watch inflation eat it away.
Stock market? Big risk.
Collectables are actually a pretty good investment in terms of hedging inflation. So I could see more people with money fleeing to collectibles (stamps, coins, cards, classic cars, art) as a refuge in this difficult investment environment. >>
silver... >>
+1
Justin
Retired - Eddie Mathews Master Registry Set (96.36%) Rank 1
Robb
<< <i>Another factor to consider...where do you put your money these days? >>
Child Support
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>
<< <i>Sure there may be some fluctuations/corrections but if you look at the long term potential, these dotcom stocks are better than gold. BUY! BUY! BUY!1!!
~ Said someone in Jan '01
What are you trying to say??? That the thousands I pay for my precious cardboard is all for naught? Cause them's fightin words! >>
If u bought quality dotcoms, u may have made out great. GOOG, AMZN, PCLN if you bought when everyone was tossing them.
Even with 2.2 Billion shares outstanding, I actually believe FB will someday hit triple digits. That's a long way from the $27.50 it is now. The lack of monetization on mobile bashing was all a rouse. I flip thru my mobile facebook and see tons of ads on my mobile app from my friends from all over the world. Jan 23, 2013 should be very, very interesting. I bought it in the high teens when all were tossing it. Wish me luck.
I'm gonna keep my day job and collect for fun.
How much of a premium would one pay for a dead centered, no tilt PSA 8 1954 Hank Aaron rookie, a great registration, print flaw free and centered PSA 8 1958 Jim Brown rookie or a dead centered, no tilt PSA 9 1979 Ozzie Smith? I know I'd pay a significant premium over the average VCP price for any of those cards with those characteristics with the knowledge that I would see a return on that premium down the road. Your mileage may vary...
<< <i>If u bought quality dotcoms, u may have made out great. GOOG, AMZN, PCLN >>
That's a fantastic analogy, thank you.
edited to suggest adding a centered '55 PSA 5 or better Clemente to Scott's list.