A. The macro decline of baseball as the national pastime. Baseball peaked, if you can call it that, from 1995 to 1999.
This is when collectors were really hot for Gwynn, Sosa, Ripken, Griffey (remember his 1989 Donruss and Fleer PSA 10's selling for $500 or $750?). 1990 Leaf boxes were worth a few hundred dollars a piece at one point.
Football has exploded. Basketball has a bigger international reach (Jordan inserts from the 90's have done well). You've also had an explosion of other sports....golf, tiger woods, ufc, periphery sports like skateboarding or xgames.
The problem for baseball cards....kids don't necessarily want to grow up and be baseball players now like 10, 20, 30+ years ago. Steroids, team inequality, escalating payrolls, etc I think have blurred some of the passion.
T206 Wagners in PSA 1 have gone up significantly in the last 10 years....remember when those were $75 or $80 k? The modern stuff is a total crapshoot.
B. It really depends on what you look at. There was a PSA 10 Bird Magic rc on ebay that sold for....$14 k? A very strong price. An Ozzie Smith PSA 10 rookie has probably done well over the last 10 years.
1990 Upper Deck Sosa's are like dot com stock. Way, way too much. Some select cards could continue to do well (i.e. 1993 SP Jeter PSA 9).
The grading onslaught has largely washed cards out to sea (i.e. 1984 Topps Ripken or something). But some grading has shown rarity (like the Jeter SP rookie).
C. Also, there's probably some diversification going on. Sealed NES games have done well the last 5 years. I collect GI Joe's from the 80's. They've been strong. The 30 something with disposable income is probably branching out. Maybe going after more things they didn't think they could have. Cards are one part of that.
<< <i>Another factor to consider...where do you put your money these days?
Real estate? Big risk Gold? Prices are very high already. Big risk. CDs? Good luck getting more than 0.1% unless you're willing to tie your money up for years. Under the mattress? Watch inflation eat it away. Stock market? Big risk.
Collectables are actually a pretty good investment in terms of hedging inflation. So I could see more people with money fleeing to collectibles (stamps, coins, cards, classic cars, art) as a refuge in this difficult investment environment. >>
I was waiting for someone to bring this up. This hits the nail on the head. Are cards risky and have a chance at dropping? Yes....but all the above? Gold and Wall Street are both primed to drop. CD's suck. Real Estate might be good if you have the capital and patience, but still very volatile.
Point is, I met with my financial advisor last year...told him I have "x" amount to spend/invest....he didn't sell me on anything that was convincing. So I decided to put into cards.....and combine the best of both worlds. Two months later I bought the Molitor/Trammel PSA 10 from the Dmitri Young auction, some Bird/Magic PSA 9 rookies, the 1938 Goudey Dimaggio, a PSA 10 Elway RC, PSA 10 Dawson RC, and now the latest is the 1976 PSA 9 Brett. Potential good investment and these cards I love so much and can look at every day. I can't say that about much of anything else these days
The Clockwork Angel Collection...brought to you by Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Chase TheClockworkAngelCollection
Did you win the Brett card that was discussed in the other thread? If so, congrats on a great card that was a well-deserved Mint 9 example, imo.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
I collect for the enjoyment I get from building a nice card collection.I am in no way a big money buyer.I have cards both graded and raw and get enjoyment from both and I pay for what I think they are worth TO ME.If the cards become worthless at some time so be it.Back in the day as an 11 year old back in 59 I collected because of the love of sports and nothing has changed since.I mainly go Vintage pre mid 60s with a few scattered sets from later years basically the Heritage sets that always impressed me.
Regarding the PSA 10 Molitor RC card sale--the last sale was 18 months prior to that one and we've all seen values on high end key cards rise during that time. I also think that the Dimitri Young attribution on the flip inflated the value as well, and for some collectors that provenance increases value.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
I also think that the Dimitri Young attribution on the flip inflated the value as well
Correctomundo. People were buying the name Dimitri Young. Take his name out of the flip and this thing I'm pretty sure would not have reached that sale price.
I don't think the high-end sportscard market is headed for any downward spiral.
I have put a good amount of money into my collection, but I buy what I love and buy to hold-- ideally-- forever.
If the sky does fall, however, I will be elated to buy so many cards I want but currently can't afford for record lows.
As I've said in every other thread that has touched on this general topic over the years: If anyone wants to bail and sell their high-end HOF cards, especially RCs, for fire-sale prices, just hit me via PM!
The card market has not return to pre-recession /2007levels. If cards ever get back to where they were before the crash I would cash out of the business.
Hi all. I'm new to the forum.This topic was interesting so i thought i would give my 2 cents. I think card collecting is cyclical. I started collecting baseball cards as a kid in the sixty's. Bought em,traded em,flipped em and put them in my bicycle spokes. Once I discovered woman I quit until after college in the heydays of the early eighties. My mother did not throw my cards in the trash. The early eighty's were alot of fun going to local shows and buying vintage cards and some $150 dollar Donruss Don Mattingly rookie cards. I got discouraged in the 90's when PSA came on board and all my treasured Mantle, Maris, Mays, and Aaron cards graded horrible. So I sold mostly everything except my mantles and a few odds and ends and bought a corvette. Now I'm back at it searching through EBay and going to shows looking for vintage 60's and 70's raw cards. So in my case the cycle continues. It's a great hobby with alot of wonderful people and a few crooks just to make it interesting.Looking forward to participating in the forum and learning more about our hobby
Interested in 60's and 70's psa and raw star and hof cards
Welcome Bob ... I hope you once again enjoy the hobby as much as you did when you were a kid.
STAY HEALTHY!
Doug
Liquidating my collection for the 3rd and final time. Time for others to enjoy what I have enjoyed over the last several decades. Money could be put to better use.
I'm also new and agree with some of what Bob has to say.
My focus is not investment. I simply like collecting cards. I had shyed away from most new product for about the past 15 years, generally just buying the topps factory set each year at Target or whatever. In the meantime I bought a handful of vintage cards I had been wanting, but not many.
Recently I was drawn in again because I noticed that some decent looking cards...ones in the PSA 6-7 range, were going for ridiculously low prices in ebay auctions.
I also have noticed that the demand for older 9's and 10's and some 8's depending on the set are really strong.
What you need to realize about the high grade cards is that there only needs to be a very small collector base chasing those cards. As long as that collector base is there, and as long as they have funds, that little group will prop up the prices of what few cards are available for sale at any time.
But once you drop down in the 6-7 range, you have sometimes hundreds of cards available, even cards from the 50's and 60's.
That takes a MUCH larger collector base to support, and in a crummy economy, that base is going to shrink. Compounding the problem, some of these collectors will be FORCED to sell due to their personal economic situation. That floods a market with more product.
Its been to my benefit. As my screen name indicates, I'm a lifelong Dodger fan. And as a result of recent soft prices, I've been able to pic up cards of players I could never reasonably buy in the past(I have a self imposed $50 spending limit on any single card). I've been able to buy fairly nice Jackie Robinson and Roy Campanella cards, and PSA 6 or 7 cards of Don Suttons rookie, Rollie Fingers Rookie, and some other very nice looking vintage cards that aren't going to break the bank for me.
A downward spiral is an odd phrase to me in this regard specifically because these are a pure luxury item for me....I don't intend to ever sell them.
I am relatively new to the forum, and just getting back into the hobby as well. I am just about 30, and collected a lot in the 90s, getting out of the hobby when it was time to sell my collection to finance my first computer purchase. This happened to coincide with the time that game used, autographs, and psa were all really gaining steam and becoming mainstream. Along with my waning interest, this all seemed to price me out of the hobby.
Now that I am back, I can see a number of reasons why this hobby may be on a longterm decline: 1- the people my age are "getting back into it." the younger generations were seemingly never into it. I work in a college athletic department, with some cards framed in my office. The kids today never speak about their collections (because they don't have any). I also have worked at a summer baseball camp for years. The demand for baseball cards at the snack bar has steadily declined to almost nil. 2- the lack of interest in baseball in general has something to do with it in my opinion as well. The rise of lacrosse has killed a lot of the interest (and talent) pool in baseball. The lack of interest in baseball, and baseball history is staggering. College baseball players ages 18-22 without a clue of who Bob Feller was... will they really care to own his rookie card? 3- the internet. Much like newspaper box scores, the information on the back of cards is becoming obsolete. A fun fact about Alvaro Espinosa is now just a click of a mouse away. Just how many wins did Julian Tavarez have out of the bullpen in his rookie season? Couple swipes away on the iPad. 4- where people spend their disposable income. Technological options are abundant - would someone rather buy a nice box of cards right now or get the latest Call of Duty? A pack of Bowman for the rookie cards or some kind of fun app for their smart phone?
There are probably others, these are off the top of my head. Now I'm aware that my general surroundings represent quite a small sample size, and I really hope I am wrong about it, but I just can't see it any other way. Please tell me I'm wrong.
<< <i>1- the people my age are "getting back into it." the younger generations were seemingly never into it. I work in a college athletic department, with some cards framed in my office. The kids today never speak about their collections (because they don't have any). I also have worked at a summer baseball camp for years. The demand for baseball cards at the snack bar has steadily declined to almost nil. >>
A lot of people on this board fall into that category of the "getting back into it". Some have a lot of money to throw around and get the cards they always wanted as a kid. I know that I've picked up a few of those childhood desires. I can't be the only one. As long as "we" are around, the hobby will survive. Will it last beyond our generation? Who knows. Look at Lionel Trains. How many people younger than 45 are serious collectors of those? Look on ebay at Lionel Train sales. Some of those collections trump my baseball card collection with ease.
<< <i>2- the lack of interest in baseball in general has something to do with it in my opinion as well. The rise of lacrosse has killed a lot of the interest (and talent) pool in baseball. The lack of interest in baseball, and baseball history is staggering. College baseball players ages 18-22 without a clue of who Bob Feller was... will they really care to own his rookie card? >>
IMO, there is no significant lacking of interest in baseball. There will always be some type of revolving door of interest. A good litmus test will be when major companies stop advertising at the stadiums, attendance at games falls off a cliff, salaries start to decline and MLB network goes off the air. How many lacrosse games can you catch on TV in a given year? As for the history of the game, that might be a valid argument.
<< <i>3- the internet. Much like newspaper box scores, the information on the back of cards is becoming obsolete. A fun fact about Alvaro Espinosa is now just a click of a mouse away. Just how many wins did Julian Tavarez have out of the bullpen in his rookie season? Couple swipes away on the iPad. >>
I don't think people collect cards solely for the information on the back of the card. People put together sets of teams, players, and years. Besides, how often do people randomly Google: fun facts about (fill in the blank)
<< <i>4- where people spend their disposable income. Technological options are abundant - would someone rather buy a nice box of cards right now or get the latest Call of Duty? A pack of Bowman for the rookie cards or some kind of fun app for their smart phone? >>
A lot of people use cards as a form of investment. Now, people here will say they don't care what their cards are worth. I don't believe that. You spend $1000 on a Ted Williams Play Ball and then can only get $5 for it, you will be upset. If a collector puts serious money into their collection, they want to know that it will either be worth more at some point in the future or at the very least get back what they put into it. Or to look at the historic perspective of it and know that you are holding a piece of history, maybe something that is museum quality. Technological toys become useless in shorter periods of time.
<< <i>Please tell me I'm wrong. >>
You're wrong.
I'm building a 1968 and a 1970 Topps set. I have lots of 1970s and 1960s to offer in trade.
Baseball interest has not fallen off a cliff, but it is down.
However, among young people, that interest in baseball and its accompanying desire to collect baseball cards HAS fallen off a cliff.
Young people do indeed put their money into gaming at an alarmingly higher percent than they do that of baseball cards, and that will become a problem down the road for baseball cards. It is rare for people to pick up collecting baseball cards if they never collected in their formative years.
People do look at baseball cards as an investment, but that doesn't mean they are wise in doing so. People will support the investment theory by pointing to the value of cards now, compared to that of 25 years ago(but they always seem to point to the 10% that gained, and ignore the 90% that failed). Also, most of the people who made out well bought their cards before baseball card collecting hit its height in the 80's. Now it is like finding a needle in a haystack to pick the right cards that will increase in value by 50x(and actually retain that value for the next 25 years).
However, from here on out it will be different, because right now isn't the same thing as it was 25 years ago, and 25 years from now will be far different than now...mainly being that 25 years from now the people who were collectors and have died off will not be replaced with incoming collectors at the same rate, because it is rare to find a young collector today.
Then you have the problem of economic woes taking a bite out of budgets. The guys that say, "I can't wait for prices to fall, because then I will be buying all those cards I always wanted," simply won't make a difference, because those guys don't have enough money to save the falling prices. If they did have enough money, then they would have those cards already, because none of those cards are rare. They simply don't have the bank to save a falling card trend.
We are not in, nor are we headed for, any downward spiral. Everything I try to buy today is higher than it has been at any point in the past 5 to 10 years. Many collectors from the peak era in the hobby are returning. So we are undoubtedly in an "upswing".
If there is ever going to be a "fall" (which I do not think there will be), it is going to be long after everyone reading this has passed. So enjoy the hobby and stop worrying about it.
I see PSA 8 1988 Fleer Jordan's going unsold for $20. Back around 2000 I would get $40-$50 for those easy! That is the state of the majority of cards from just ten years ago. Probably every card from the 70's, 1980's has fallen the same way or wore(to worthless).
Some things are in a 'hot' period, but those will come down too.
Some pre war has increased or maintained, and the artificial stuff like low pop high grade commons, some graded 10 cards have maintained. However, some of those 10's and 9's went for insane prices in late 90's/early 2000's and they are barely a fraction of that now! Look at a lot of the Fleer Jordan stuff that sold for insane amounts in 9's or 10's back in the day as an example.
Once the few who spend crazy amount of money on artificial high grade stuff go away, there won't be replacements spending the same coin.
All that being said, 25 years from now, all the true big spenders will be gone, and the teenagers of today will not be replacing them.
So, RookieWax, if you or a few others graduate to the big leagues by buying quality pre war, then who will be there to buy the stuff that you currently spend your collecting money on???? Not enough new people will be there. It will end up like all the other stuff that sits unsold for a fraction of what it was ten years ago, like those '88 Jordan's.
Unopened wax is still hot, and barring a trust catastrophe, that may last a while longer. But eventually, when nobody cares about the contents, that will have problems too.
The number of 15 year old who collect baseball cards today is far less than it was in the height of cards(1980's). They spend their money on other things, mainly on gaming...cards aren't even an afterthought, they are a 'never thought of'. 30 years from now, the 12-15 year olds of today's world will be counted on to fill the void that will happen by then.
Look at who spends the most money on cards now, and that is the age group that is on the wrong side of 50 years of age. Sure, there are a few wealthy outliers that are younger, but the majority of the big spenders are older.
To simplify, you basically have three classes of collectors:
1. The big spenders. These are typically the over age 50 group. As an example, they buy up the quality pre war or the high grade post war. They may have big collections because they are wealthy, or a lot of these guys have massive collections because they bought pre 1970 when it was cheap. It is doubtful many would be able to rebuild their collection if they were starting from scratch today.
Who is going to take their place when they are mostly gone 30 years from now? The cards in their price range will fall if there are less people competing to buy them. Will the guys in the next group pick up the slack? If prices fall, more guys from the bottom level will come into this area.
2. The average collector. It is a wide range in spending power in this group. Some dabble in pre war, but could only afford a Ruth or two just to say they own one. They may try to build a 50's or 60's set, but doubtful they have the bank to put together a set run from 1952- present. They have to typically specialize. Maybe a HOF subset, you get the idea. This group simply does not have the disposable income to graduate to the above group, otherwise they would be there already. This group also typically missed out on getting all the expensive stuff, because they weren't alive to buy it when it was cheap(pre 1970's)...though they greatly desire to have the expensive stuff, and will gobble it up when it drops in price.
So 30 years from now, how many guys will be able to fill the void of the big spenders above ?? Even if this group overcomes the economic disadvantages they have and there were enough of these guys to fill the void in buying the high priced stuff in the above group, then who will be buying all the stuff that these guys used to buy??
If a guy from this group all of a sudden has a chance to put his yearly 15k into a card or two from the above group, then who will replace the 15k that they would have spent on cards in the budget of this group???
There are only two possibilities to fill this void in this group, the guys in the bottom level(which won't happen), or the people that are 15 years old today(new collectors)...whom which don't even think about cards.
3. The bottom feeders. They are happy with mid grade 70's stuff and 80's stuff. They don't have money, and have careers that will probably never give them enough money to go into an upper group.
The bottom line is that unless more young people today start getting into collecting, there is no place for cards to go but down! Some will fall faster than others, and that is seen already(cards that the bottom feeders buy or the low level second group...your PSA 8 Jordan's etc...).
Top cards still get good coin or even increase...but those buyers will be gone, and who is going to fill their void? Those will fall more slowly because they will still be the target among all collectors...but remember, when these cards are bought up by the average collector, who is going to be buying the stuff THEY used to spend their money on? Not enough people!
How to fix? Get the young people collecting again. How is that going to happen? That is the stuff people with vested interest in cards should be debating...not debating and getting mad at the people who do see the writing on the wall.
People with vested interest have to get young people to carry on the tradition. I hope they do, because it is a great hobby!!! Far better than playing video games!
PS, BASEBALL, good ideas, but cards have more competition. Actually, Old video games ARE something that older people buy ! Older people usually buy stuff that was nostalgic to their youth. If card collecting was never on their radar, it makes it less likely that it will be when they are 40 because the nostalgia isn't there. It also hurts that baseball interest in general is falling.
Older people will be gaming still from this generation. People in their 30'/40's still game.
Buying games is not an investment...horrible idea. However, guys of that age do and will play games, and will spend their money on the newest games and gadgets to enjoy and play.
You are correct that people DO all of a sudden get into collecting things at age 40, and that has happened and will continue to happen in baseball card collecting, HOWEVER, in the past that has corresponded with an abundance of collectors who have engrained themselves in collecting at a young age, an event which produced a boom in baseball card collecting. Unfortunately, in the future, you will only be left with the scattered few who all of a sudden get into collecting at age 40...but lost are a large population of the collectors who were in it because they were brought up on it as it was the thing to do when they were young. Those people are the driving force in the market for baseball cards, not the scattered few you are counting on.
Sorry if that fact bothers you, don't be mad at me for pointing out the obvious...get the younger guys in, and the boom will last longer.
Really, the world population is growing, so that is a benefit to baseball cards? Aren't the fastest growing places Africa and India? Nuff said.
Besides, that is probably a detriment, because as the population becomes larger, it is the necessities and natural resources that become more expensive to buy, and that is where the money will go my friend...not into baseball cards.
P.S. The expensive ART is rare...baseball cards are anything but rare. It may be a finite number of baseball cards, but that finite number is EXTREMELY high.
Objectivity, it does not matter that young people are not collecting. I was a Detroit Tigers and a baseball fan for 5 years before I purchased my first pack of cards. I became a Tiger fan after watching the TV movie "One in a Million" about Ron Leflore in I believe 1975. I did not buy my first LeFlore rookie card until 3 years ago - 34 years later!! And I was an NBA fan since I was a little kid watching the Detroit Pistons in the early 1970s. I did not buy my first box of basketball cards until 1990. That was 25 years later!! And I did not buy my first basketball card of guys I watched as a kid (such as Bob Lanier and Kevin Porter) until 2 years ago. That was almost 40 years AFTER I became a fan!! So, Objectivity, unless people stop being sports fans and the arenas empty out and the TV broadcasting deals go away, non of what you argue makes sense.
There will still be guys like you with that collecting path, however, the majority of the collectors collected during their formative years...and you are losing those guys....and the competition for cards only grows and grows.
So that leaves you with two things for 30 years from now:
1. Less baseball card collectors than ever with money
2. More competition than ever as an alternative to baseball cards
There is actually a third thing, and that is the economy as a whole with a bleak future(not saying doomsday, but bleak for sure).
Buy cards because you enjoy them, not as an investment.
PS. There is a fourth thing....less and less kids also do not even watch sports, and will not even know a Ron LeFlore to even care! They play video games, not watch baseball.
Objectivity, under your gloomy scenarios, major sports teams will also lose the majority of their revenue(I mean under your conditions who will be able to go to or want to go to a game and afford a $6 hot dog?)....and when the major sports teams start going away, then I will agree with you that card collecting would also go away. But until the first thing happens.....
And by the way, how much did the Dodgers just get in their new TV deal????
I think there are more young collectors out there than you guys think. Go on Youtube and you will see a good bit of the Sportscard community is younger guys with a good bit in the teenage years. Granted they are more about the hits and they flip alot of what they rip. There are also a good bit of younger guys in the TTM community on Youtube as well. I will admit that there are not as many collectors as when I was collecting as a kid and into my teens. I am 36 BTW. I also think a good bit of guys around my age are coming back into the hobby since they have more disposable income.
Kids do not watch baseball as much as they used to. To a far greater degree, kids do not collect baseball cards as they used to. Those don't have much of an effect currently...however, 30 years down the road is a different story.
Yes, pro sports will be hurt when this generation is the ticket buyers in 30 years. Kids today put their money and interest into other things compared to kids of 30 years ago who put more into watching sports or collecting cards.
I also wouldn't feel too rosey about the Dodgers deal, because other clubs aren't as lucky. Also, look at the NHL, it is already downhill, the NBA following in its path. Baseball not as strong as you think. Football will always be strong as long as gambling is involved(but that doesn't translate to collecting)...and this is right now.
SO yes, 30 years from now, I don't see pro sports as important to the kids of this generation, and certainly not card collecting.
Sorry you don't like that trend, and you are upset with me for pointing out the obvious...but at least you are being given a heads up so that you have an opportunity to get more collectors.
You should go survey a bunch of 12-15 year old boys and ask them the following questions verbally:
1. What is a Topps card?
2. What is Xbox live?
3. How many apps do you have?
4. Who was better, Prince Fielder or Mark Teixeira?
5. Which game is better, Halo or Call of Duty?
6. When the World Series was on did you watch that, or did you play Xbox live, or were you texting?
But really, the only question that matters is....
-When you got your Christmas money, what did you buy?
PS, Baseball I have a decent amount vested myself. However, some things I like to keep because I like them. If I go hungry and can't pay bills, then I would sell them. Otherwise, they are nostalgic to keep around.
Just ask the kids those questions. I'm not making their choices, I'm just reporting it.
Also, ask them what they got for Christmas.
As for the communities on Youtube, there probably are collecting communities...but how many gaming communities are there??
Athletic men will play sports, but even kids that play sports now spend so much time playing, that they barely watch. These kids play 70 games of baseball a year. The next biggest chunk of their time is spent gaming.
Ask them and observe them...don't be mad at me for pointing out what they do.
In the future, an adults main collecting focus will be obtaining a paycheck.
Clearly the problem here is we need to not let our kids play video games for half their life. Games are the enomy people!! Its time we unplug. Objectivly you are the ONE.
I just wish I could buy vintage unopened product today for the prices I paid 20 years ago--by the time those prices roll around again I will be long dead and buried. Don't see prices fallng to those levels in next 40 years at least.
Edit to add: if ever!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
If there is one thing I would invest in, it would be unopened, especially at the rates you guys rip it. That is one thing that actually has rarity(in the really older packs), and loses in supply(with all the rips).
My only concern would be the guys that get good at resealing.
Plus it has extra nostalgia in it because it is still 'unopened' from way back when.
So if kids main focus is only gaming. Whos going to buy houses,stocks,gold,boats,tennis shorts, life boats, and old quilts? We are doomed!! UNPLUG PEOPLE THERE IS A WORLD HERE!!
<< <i>In the future, an adults main collecting focus will be obtaining a paycheck. >>
Apart from your obvious doomsday depiction of the future, people will need to spend time with leisure activities. Some will golf, fish, travel, hunt, etc. A lot of those non-collecting activities require a lot of money to maintain. The entire collective value of the high grade vintage card market is not that large by any means.
Your entire logic is based on nostalgia and what kids do. That would explain why adults came into the card market to buy the Mantles of their youth back in the 1980s-1990s. It wouldn't explain why people like us, who never watched Mantle or Mays or Ruth play, salivate over their cards. Or why those adults who never watched or collected Ruth cards decided to pay most for those. Ask any long-time coin dealer about attendance at shows. People worry because of the age of collectors at every show being on average probably in their mid to late 50s, if not older. Yet it's been like that forever.
I'll state it for the record once again, I would LOVE to see the card market crash, even if I knew it would never come back. I want people to throw away their Mint Ruths and Mantles at me and I'll "overpay" for them. I don't think it will happen but I hope your right. >>
Those examples are of people that think of cards as they were in the midst of the height of the 80's market. 'Everyone' was buying cards then...so many people bought cards to put into a closet thinking they would hit it big and pay for their kids college, because it was very popular. That is not the environment right now. There are even a lot of people who assume that the baseball market is completely dead because all of those investments tanked big time...you've seen the articles. They aren't accurate about the market being dead, but that is a thought among a lot of people.
Unless you get that hoopla again, and the younger generation starts buying into it, cards will take a big hit when these kids reach their buying years. A few who have the desire to collect will do so...but the hoopla is not there now among the young people to even point them in that direction. It simply is not the same as then.
When you put all your money into the bargain Ruth's...who is going to fill the void of the stuff you bought/collected?? They won't be there. There aren't going to be grandma's buying an '86 Donruss set for their grandson because of the hoopla like back in the day, or in the future buying a 2030 Topps set for their grandson when they would rather be playing Black Ops 18.
Handyman, living space is a necessity...the others are just more examples of competition that kids and adults will have instead of baseball cards. People like the newest electronic gadgets and love spending their cash on that...more so than baseball cards.
The hoopla from the general population and young people is over. That time has passed, and baseball card collecting no longer holds the place among young people as it once did, which will unfortunately have a negative effect in the future.
I said from the very beginning that the big buyers are alive and well, thus strong prices for the good pre war stuff. The good pre war stuff was underpriced during the hoopla years...people spent incorrectly then
From now compared to the hoopla years, for every mint ruth that made a 10 fold increase, there are ten other cards that made a 10 fold decrease. There are 660 cards in the 1986 Donruss set that completely tanked.
Every mid grade star card that was sold off as near mint back in the day, also tanked, which dwarfs the ones that were truly mint and made money.
How are those 1990 Leaf cards doing for you that did so well for so many years?
How many 1987, 1988, and 1989 Fleer basketball sets do you have hoping to fund your kids college? Those were hot for a good 12 years. Where are they now? They will never reach the heights they were at, even the high grade ones.
What do you think will happen to those cards 30 years from now when nobody at all wants them? They will go to an Ebay wasteland.
People will have to pay more money for food and gas, and their disposable income for the newest electronic and computer gadgets...you actually think cards will increase in that environment?
It has happened on a lot of stuff already(more tanks than gains overall), and we are still in a portion of the height of the market.
Bottom line, if you are going into this right now with an investment in mind, it is a losing proposition. If you are spending 20k on cards today, considering all the things I presented that point to a decline, even if somehow in the face of all that your 20k worth of cards that you invested in is worth 25k in 30 years...once you take listing and selling fees out and account for inflation, you will have lost money, and that is if your cards actually 'gain' in value!
Now imagine if what I am saying even comes a little true and your 20k becomes 18k, then fees and inflation.
If what I am saying comes to reality, that 20k will most likely be 12k, then fees and inflation.
I'm not talking about losing complete interest. There should be a long time for some interest.
If you buy because of enjoyment, then you will have no problems. The cards will decline, but you will have received a pleasure benefit from it, kind of like going to the movies.
There may be 1% of items in this genre that may still increase significantly 30 years from now...good luck finding them. A few wise people will.
Unless you guys figure out a way for American people to stop putting disposable income and thousands of dollars into Ipads, cell phones, LED TV's; and find a way to get young people to even know what a baseball card is, the future isn't the brightest.
Don't be upset with me for pointing out the obvious. Go out there and try to broaden the horizons' of today's youth if you want to stop this from happening!
Im in 100% agreement with Objectivity, I sold my graded Football collection almost 2 years ago for the same thought process of there not being much interest down the road and in my opinion there would be no way I would recoup the 10+ K I had into these cards.
I am 42 and grew up during the height of the card frenzy, at its peak it was insane.
Its true that kids are mainly into gaming and electronic devises and texting more than anything, another thing the amount of time spent playing baseball is a fraction of what it was when I was a kid, more and more kids play Lacross, Soccer and Hockey rather than Baseball. When I was in Junior High School I knew exactly who Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Ty Cobb, Cy Young was, I bet less than 10% of kids that age across America have no idea who those guys were. When these kids become adults are they really going to have interest in these guys cardboard? Another thing is this hobby is no longer the slice of apple pie it was before the scammers and money hungry Sharks got involved, this Hobby got ruined along time ago and is now a greed filled arena where the first thought that comes across the majority of peoples minds are "How much is it worth"
I guess I can't say it better than aconte, but I'll try it my way...
Objectivity stated, "Who is going to take their place when they are mostly gone 30 years from now?"
Is this really the timeframe we all agreed upon to discuss? 25 or 30 years is a long, long time-- to me at least. I'll be 66 in 30 years-- if I'm even alive. The simple fact is that no one can predict with even a modicum of certainty what will happen in that distant a time. When pitching a business to receive investment, most people don't like to model or project past a mere two year span-- because everyone knows how unreliable models become as you move forward in time. I can't believe so many card enthusiasts are butting heads over what the state of the hobby will be in a quarter century from now. So much can happen.
But whatever happens, is it relevant to any collectors' enjoyment of the hobby? Does Collector X enjoy cards? Does he buy what he likes and prices with which he is comfortable? If he buys solely for investment purposes, is he really looking at a 25 year timeframe before reselling? If not, then what's the point in this debate?
It was also asserted in an above post that: "this group (the average collector) simply does not have the disposable income to graduate to the above group (the big spender), otherwise they would be there already.
So this means no one ever sees their income rise during their lifetime? Did I miss something? I think many people are not born into extreme wealth and can grow to become "big spenders" if they so choose and through hard work.
The hobby as it is now isn't changing much one way or the other over the next decade or two or maybe even three. Too many men aged 30-40 are into it and contributing to what it is now, and they will still only be 60-65 in that time (and it is just as likely that they will then be spending more on cards as their income increases, as it is to reason the economy will decline and their salaries will be cut).
I for one only care to look at things in 1 to maybe 5 year windows, and I'm happy to buy as many cards as I love and can afford during that time. The prices of the cards that lead the hobby will NOT be skyrocketing or plummeting in a reasonable window of time.
Objectivity wrote: "People with vested interest have to get young people to carry on the tradition. I hope they do, because it is a great hobby!!!"
I could not agree more. I am getting my two kids into cards and collecting bigtime, they are already showing signs of growing into it.
It was also stated that: "Actually, Old video games ARE something that older people buy ! Older people usually buy stuff that was nostalgic to their youth. If card collecting was never on their radar, it makes it less likely that it will be when they are 40 because the nostalgia isn't there. It also hurts that baseball interest in general is falling."
I am 36 and game a great deal. I also bought both cards and a vintage Pac Man arcade with my very first paycheck after college. There is room for both. But it is true in my case that had I not collected as a boy I would not be collecting now.
Bottom line, I think this 30-year window that been bandied about is kind of silly and impossible to predict. What I can take away from this discussion and agree with is that we should definitely get our kids to enjoy our hobby. I don't know how we can accurately measure interest in baseball going down or predict where the economy will be in thirty years.
<< <i>People will have to pay more money for food and gas, and their disposable income for the newest electronic and computer gadgets...you actually think cards will increase in that environment? >>
I think that there will be a segment of the population (and almost all of it to varying degrees) that will always have disposable income and will use it for their choice of leisure activities. The only question that remains is where cards will reside on that pecking order. So if you disagree with that, then we agree to disagree. If you agree but just have a problem with cards, you haven't come close to convincing me exactly why it would become displaced and by what exactly. >>
I love cards, have no beef with them...but this stuff is pretty obvious.
You guys are counting on a 180 dgree turn from these kids who don't care about cards now, thinking that they will become collectors like other adults do.... because you are thinking of how you yourself think(but your thought is prejudiced having gone through the card boom yourself, whether or not you actually bought at that time). Yes, some will decide to collect, but you also lose a large portion forever, compared to the ones that were reared on cards during the boom, whom are your big collectors now.
Ask the kids all those questions I presented. Ask every kid you see what they spent their Christmas money on...if you guys can't see the importance of that, I wish you well, and will have to bow out at that point...because NONE of the points you made account for this giant loss of baseball card collecting force that will no longer be there down the road, If you can't see the importance of that, then God bless.
If you don't like it, then get more young people involved.
My thinking falls in line with Objectivity's. This idea comes up every now and again on this forum. The following is what I posted in March of this year:
The points made here notwithstanding, the sports card industry will collapse, just not on the short timeline professed. For any industry to expand, new money needs to be coming in. Right now, key vintage prices are going up, not because new collectors are coming into the hobby, but because those who collected as kids are returning or because the collectors who are here are entering their prime earning ages.
The reason kids need to be involved is so that when they reach their 30s, the nostalgia will kick in and they'll buy the cards they wanted as kids, demand will go up for an asset with a shrinking supply and the prices will rise. As there are no kids coming in, and as the collectors who are currently propping up the market age and pass away, most prices will fall.
An excellent example is the stamp industry. My uncle is a well known stamp dealer who has been collecting since the early 1960s. The truly rare stamps (not conditional rarities mind you, but those with just a few examples extant), continue to climb in price. However, 99.999% of stamps are falling in value and prices noticeably drop whenever a major collector passes away and his collection hits the market. There are certain sectors of postal history where only one or two collectors (who are in their 80s) are living and the dealers now refuse to buy that product at any price.
For our purposes, we're years away from the stamp industry, but it is coming. It's been coming since the mid-90s, when the kids were priced out of the market. In my lifetime, I expect to see a second precipitous drop in values as registry set kings pass away with no collectors to replace them.
It's been a good run and I, for one, will continue to collect for pleasure, full well knowing that, should I keep my cards until my passing, they'll be worth far less than they were fifty years previous.
You can't judge the state of the hobby by the rarest and most expensive cards. How many people own or can even afford a T206 Wagner? You have to look at the overall picture; kids are not into anymore, first shops died, and now shows are following the same path. The graded card market gave card values a big boost when it started getting popular back in 96-2001. But as time when on, pops went up and prices starting coming back down. I remember back in 2000-2001 time frame when every card was low pop in 9 and any card of say Aaron Musial Mays were selling for several thousand +. So the argument that these HOF star cards are always going up is false. Same is true for your more common pre-war star cards like Ted Wiliams (41 PB for example) and Babe Ruth (33 Goudey for example).
When I grew up trains and stamps were considered "old fashioned" and just plain "dorky". I think today's generation feels the same way about sports cards.
The non-collecting public thinks sports cards have already spiraled down. Often, when I am speaking to people, they say "do people still collect cards?" Or they will say "I can't get anything for my cards I use to collect". Most of the shops are gone, there are very few shows, you just don't hear the hype you use to hear.
Well, the people that can't get anything for their cards collected the junk wax & over produced items of the 1990's. As we in the industry know, there are not many shops & shows, but log onto ebay and watch how many lots are sold every day. Take a look at the prices of nice, high grade vintage items. Take a look at the major auction houses & what items sell for. We know that for right now, the industry is very strong compared to the economy. But perception of the industry is that it is almost dead.
Back in the mid 1980's and up to about 1989, almost everything you bought would have up arrows in Beckett. You did not have to be a savory buyer to make money. But as time has passed, that has changed. And I think as we continue into the future, it will become harder & harder to successfully invest in cards for many of the reasons Objectivity has stated. Though it may become harder to make money, I really do not think the overall industry will spiral downward. As long as there are games being played, there will be collectors collecting, there will be dealers dealing, and there will be ups & downs.
I'd like to open by saying cards can drop in value, even iconic cards. Here is a recent article in SCD showing how mid to high grade 1952 Mantle's have dropped in price if you bought in 2008/9 timeframe: Link
Saying that, I don't think baseball cards are going away even with all of the doom and gloom scenarios that are being painted with kids not collecting anymore, and that there won't be a new generation to take over collecting in the future. As long as baseball is played, and new baseball cards are produced every year, baseball cards will always have value, and people will continue to collect them. The reason is simple: MONEY. Yes, it is this: $$$$. As long as people need and want dineros, they will always collect cards. Fast forward twenty years from now, and the kids today are adults. They never collected as kids. However, when they read about cards being sold for big bucks, they will get into the hobby because they want to make money, and have fun doing it. The best analogy that I can use here is coins. Nobody, I mean, absolutely nobody collected coins when they were kids. OK, I'm probably exaggerating but when I was growing up in the 1980s, out of every 200 people, 40 collected cards, and 2 collected coins, and those two coin collections where just a few wheat pennies and buffalo nickels. And right now, coins are arguably the hottest collectibles out there with huge values, that far outpaces the value of the metal inside them. Coins have a few advantages that cards do not have that people like such as they are government issued and the value of their metal is actually worth something unlike pieces of cardboard that cards come from.
Therefore as long as people want to collect cards, they will always hold value. And as long as they hold value, people will want to collect. It's that vicious or virtuous cycle, whatever you want to call it. So basically, if you want to collect cards that hold value, you just have to collect what other people also want to collect, and you have to pay a price for them that is fairly valued. Again, this is why, in my opinion, that I believe that absolute scarcity is better than grade scarcity. If you have 300 million people in America, and say 10,000 of them collect cards in one way or another, which cards do those people want to collect. If there are 20,000 copies of 1986 Fleer Jordan's out there, I think there is more potential that those cards can have more potential to drop than others. Then again, MJ is arguably the most famous athlete in existence right now, so every single collector wants one of his cards in their collection. That is how you have to think of it.
Any card can drop in value, especially if you buy it at the wrong time or price as others have said. However, a lot of cards are also hot right now, and I think as others have said that card prices are going up right now. I sell cards on ebay as a hobby, and for the most part, I have been able to sell for higher prices than I have last year. (I deal in prewar baseball so that is the area I know best.) There are some issues that do really well, and others that don't do so well, so you just have to pick and choose to the best of your knowledge. In my opinion, buying popular cards of big HOFers is the best way to go. For example, I cannot see why people pay hundreds or even thousands of dollars for a PSA 10 common from a 1960s set. Same thing for a rare prewar type card of a common player no one heard of. If I want to spend that kind of money, I would want to be able to enjoy looking at the card all of the time, and not just because my registry set went up a hundredth of a point so now I am #2 all time.
When buying stocks, just about the only satisfaction one gets is when the stock goes up, and they see the total value of their portfolio go up. However, with cards, you can get this and other things too, such as the satisfaction of just looking at your card, and enjoying it. If it's the highest graded card or you are only one of 10 people to own that card, you can also get satisfaction that way also. This is another reason why I think cards as well as other collectibles will always hold value. Because there are more ways to enjoy them rather than just seeing some number on your computer screen. Again, I will never understand someone showing a Gem Mint common and saying that is the pride of their collection. I don't think those cards will hold their value. However, there is another thread going on here on cards that every collector should own (Link). As long as there pop isn't too high, I think those cards will do well. The lower the pop, the better. However, as the economy improves, more people will have the means to buy more cards, which will probably lift the value of more than just these. Happy collecting!
Any card can drop in value, especially if you buy it at the wrong time or price as others have said. However, a lot of cards are also hot right now, and I think as others have said that card prices are going up right now. I sell cards on ebay as a hobby, and for the most part, I have been able to sell for higher prices than I have last year. (I deal in prewar baseball so that is the area I know best.) There are some issues that do really well, and others that don't do so well, so you just have to pick and choose to the best of your knowledge. In my opinion, buying popular cards of big HOFers is the best way to go. For example, I cannot see why people pay hundreds or even thousands of dollars for a PSA 10 common from a 1960s set. Same thing for a rare prewar type card of a common player no one heard of. If I want to spend that kind of money, I would want to be able to enjoy looking at the card all of the time, and not just because my registry set went up a hundredth of a point so now I am #2 all time.
When buying stocks, just about the only satisfaction one gets is when the stock goes up, and they see the total value of their portfolio go up. However, with cards, you can get this and other things too, such as the satisfaction of just looking at your card, and enjoying it. If it's the highest graded card or you are only one of 10 people to own that card, you can also get satisfaction that way also. This is another reason why I think cards as well as other collectibles will always hold value. Because there are more ways to enjoy them rather than just seeing some number on your computer screen. Again, I will never understand someone showing a Gem Mint common and saying that is the pride of their collection. I don't think those cards will hold their value. However, there is another thread going on here on cards that every collector should own (Link). As long as there pop isn't too high, I think those cards will do well. The lower the pop, the better. However, as the economy improves, more people will have the means to buy more cards, which will probably lift the value of more than just these. Happy collecting! >>
Agree 100%. Sports will always be a huge part of our society. Collecting will always be a huge part of our society. Collecting rare pieces of a major sports star of our society will always be high on collectors desire lists.
What cards exactly have gone up in value since the late 90's/early2000's?
Probably 85% or more of cards have gone down.
There are some examples like the '79 PSA 10 Ozzie Smith that went really high. Of course, there are also examples like the Tiger Woods PSA 10 card that went insanely high back then and is worth peanuts now. There are probably equal examples on both sides of those spectrums as that is how the market usually works in short term.
But what about the other 85% of the cards that constitute what the majority of people collect? Your PSA 8 Seaver rookie, your Ryan Rookie, the PSA 2 Goudey Ruth #144, a 1971 Ex/Mt topps set, a typical PSA 9 HOFer from the 60's, etc...
Are these typical cards even retaining their value now, compared to what they were selling for in 2000? So if you bought those cards in the year 2000, how would you have made out now?
Looking at Ebay and seeing all those cards being listed and going unsold, the prices of those cards look like they are either the same or gone down. Those Seaver cards in 8 still only hover around $1,000, and go unsold. That is about the same as they were doing in 2000, but they actually sold. The PSA 2 Goudey Ruths #144, the last two that sold were $1,300 and $1,000, which is the same or less than in the year 2000ish.
If you bought both of those cards, which represent the type of cards(grade, value, player) that 85% of people collect, you have not made any money on them or have even lost a little. If you try selling today for your price, it will sit there for a long time.
However, when you account for inflation....
That $1,000 in the year 2000 equals $1,336 in 2012. None of those typical cards have grown like that.
What did you buy in 1990 for $1,000? Is that worth $1,761 dollars today? If it is, congratulations, you just broke even!
Yes, kids aren't big coin collectors, and that is a decently strong hobby right now...but how much stronger would it be if for the past 40 years all the kids who collected baseball cards instead were reared on collecting coins??? You would have an army of coin collectors much stronger than it is today, and those prices would be even higher! Then what do you think would happen if all of a sudden you didn't have that army of coin collectors to draw from? Not that hard to figure out Hmmm, what hobby will that be happening to 30 years from now?
Half kidding, of course. The one thing you must do is ENJOY YOURSELF. there are a lot of great collectors here, there and everywhere. If the ongoings of 2012 have not taught everyone to enjoy themselves, then i dont know what will. Tomorrow is NOT guaranteed people. People die everyday, good people, bad people, people. Hurricane Sandy killed people. you think those people KNEW they were going to die that day? of course not. Newtown? do i even have to type it?
So instead of bashing one another on the internet, enjoy the f*** out of yourself and your hobbies!
Big Fan of: HOF Post War RC, Graded RCs WTB: PSA 1 - PSA 3 Centered, High Eye Appeal 1950's Mantle
<< <i>What cards exactly have gone up in value since the late 90's/early2000's?
>>
I have around a thousand or more cards in my collection. Almost every single one has gone up since the late 1990s to early 2000s. I only collect Pre-WWII and a couple years later though. I love the history of the hobby and baseball. I collected in the late 60s and a lot of my hobby friends did too. The vintage market has come down in some more common lower end niches but overall, the rare stuff is still up. Many of the folks in Pre-War couldn't afford the best cards and now, a bit later in life, can and do. I thoroughly enjoy collecting so at worst case I love playing with, and studying, the cards. Happy collecting. (I agree the new stuff hasn't done too well, it seems more like gambling than collecting)
Comments
A. The macro decline of baseball as the national pastime. Baseball peaked, if you can call it that, from 1995 to 1999.
This is when collectors were really hot for Gwynn, Sosa, Ripken, Griffey (remember his 1989 Donruss and Fleer PSA 10's selling for $500 or $750?). 1990 Leaf boxes were worth a few hundred dollars a piece at one point.
Football has exploded. Basketball has a bigger international reach (Jordan inserts from the 90's have done well). You've also had an explosion of other sports....golf, tiger woods, ufc, periphery sports like skateboarding or xgames.
The problem for baseball cards....kids don't necessarily want to grow up and be baseball players now like 10, 20, 30+ years ago. Steroids, team inequality, escalating payrolls, etc I think have blurred some of the passion.
T206 Wagners in PSA 1 have gone up significantly in the last 10 years....remember when those were $75 or $80 k? The modern stuff is a total crapshoot.
B. It really depends on what you look at. There was a PSA 10 Bird Magic rc on ebay that sold for....$14 k? A very strong price. An Ozzie Smith PSA 10 rookie has probably done well over the last 10 years.
1990 Upper Deck Sosa's are like dot com stock. Way, way too much. Some select cards could continue to do well (i.e. 1993 SP Jeter PSA 9).
The grading onslaught has largely washed cards out to sea (i.e. 1984 Topps Ripken or something). But some grading has shown rarity (like the Jeter SP rookie).
C. Also, there's probably some diversification going on. Sealed NES games have done well the last 5 years. I collect GI Joe's from the 80's. They've been strong. The 30 something with disposable income is probably branching out. Maybe going after more things they didn't think they could have. Cards are one part of that.
<< <i>Another factor to consider...where do you put your money these days?
Real estate? Big risk
Gold? Prices are very high already. Big risk.
CDs? Good luck getting more than 0.1% unless you're willing to tie your money up for years.
Under the mattress? Watch inflation eat it away.
Stock market? Big risk.
Collectables are actually a pretty good investment in terms of hedging inflation. So I could see more people with money fleeing to collectibles (stamps, coins, cards, classic cars, art) as a refuge in this difficult investment environment. >>
I was waiting for someone to bring this up. This hits the nail on the head. Are cards risky and have a chance at dropping? Yes....but all the above? Gold and Wall Street are both primed to drop. CD's suck. Real Estate might be good if you have the capital and patience, but still very volatile.
Point is, I met with my financial advisor last year...told him I have "x" amount to spend/invest....he didn't sell me on anything that was convincing. So I decided to put into cards.....and combine the best of both worlds. Two months later I bought the Molitor/Trammel PSA 10 from the Dmitri Young auction, some Bird/Magic PSA 9 rookies, the 1938 Goudey Dimaggio, a PSA 10 Elway RC, PSA 10 Dawson RC, and now the latest is the 1976 PSA 9 Brett. Potential good investment and these cards I love so much and can look at every day. I can't say that about much of anything else these days
TheClockworkAngelCollection
Clockwork,
Did you win the Brett card that was discussed in the other thread? If so, congrats on a great card that was a well-deserved Mint 9 example, imo.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
sets from later years basically the Heritage sets that always impressed me.
Buying Vintage, all sports.
Buying Woody Hayes, Les Horvath, Vic Janowicz, and Jesse Owens autographed items
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Correctomundo. People were buying the name Dimitri Young. Take his name out of the flip and this thing I'm pretty sure would not have reached that sale price.
I have put a good amount of money into my collection, but I buy what I love and buy to hold-- ideally-- forever.
If the sky does fall, however, I will be elated to buy so many cards I want but currently can't afford for record lows.
As I've said in every other thread that has touched on this general topic over the years: If anyone wants to bail and sell their high-end HOF cards, especially RCs, for fire-sale prices, just hit me via PM!
Some of the Pre-War stuff may remain simply for historical purpose.
Shiney new modern stuff? fire starter
Doug
Liquidating my collection for the 3rd and final time. Time for others to enjoy what I have enjoyed over the last several decades. Money could be put to better use.
My focus is not investment. I simply like collecting cards. I had shyed away from most new product for about the past 15 years, generally just buying the topps factory set each year at Target or whatever. In the meantime I bought a handful of vintage cards I had been wanting, but not many.
Recently I was drawn in again because I noticed that some decent looking cards...ones in the PSA 6-7 range, were going for ridiculously low prices in ebay auctions.
I also have noticed that the demand for older 9's and 10's and some 8's depending on the set are really strong.
What you need to realize about the high grade cards is that there only needs to be a very small collector base chasing those cards. As long as that collector base is there, and as long as they have funds, that little group will prop up the prices of what few cards are available for sale at any time.
But once you drop down in the 6-7 range, you have sometimes hundreds of cards available, even cards from the 50's and 60's.
That takes a MUCH larger collector base to support, and in a crummy economy, that base is going to shrink. Compounding the problem, some of these collectors will be FORCED to sell due to their personal economic situation. That floods a market with more product.
Its been to my benefit. As my screen name indicates, I'm a lifelong Dodger fan. And as a result of recent soft prices, I've been able to pic up cards of players I could never reasonably buy in the past(I have a self imposed $50 spending limit on any single card). I've been able to buy fairly nice Jackie Robinson and Roy Campanella cards, and PSA 6 or 7 cards of Don Suttons rookie, Rollie Fingers Rookie, and some other very nice looking vintage cards that aren't going to break the bank for me.
A downward spiral is an odd phrase to me in this regard specifically because these are a pure luxury item for me....I don't intend to ever sell them.
Good to have both of you here.
http://www.unisquare.com/store/brick/
Ralph
DodgerfanJohn,
I have just recently realized that I, too, am not an investor, just a collector.
I am relatively new to the forum, and just getting back into the hobby as well. I am just about 30, and collected a lot in the 90s, getting out of the hobby when it was time to sell my collection to finance my first computer purchase. This happened to coincide with the time that game used, autographs, and psa were all really gaining steam and becoming mainstream. Along with my waning interest, this all seemed to price me out of the hobby.
Now that I am back, I can see a number of reasons why this hobby may be on a longterm decline:
1- the people my age are "getting back into it." the younger generations were seemingly never into it. I work in a college athletic department, with some cards framed in my office. The kids today never speak about their collections (because they don't have any). I also have worked at a summer baseball camp for years. The demand for baseball cards at the snack bar has steadily declined to almost nil.
2- the lack of interest in baseball in general has something to do with it in my opinion as well. The rise of lacrosse has killed a lot of the interest (and talent) pool in baseball. The lack of interest in baseball, and baseball history is staggering. College baseball players ages 18-22 without a clue of who Bob Feller was... will they really care to own his rookie card?
3- the internet. Much like newspaper box scores, the information on the back of cards is becoming obsolete. A fun fact about Alvaro Espinosa is now just a click of a mouse away. Just how many wins did Julian Tavarez have out of the bullpen in his rookie season? Couple swipes away on the iPad.
4- where people spend their disposable income. Technological options are abundant - would someone rather buy a nice box of cards right now or get the latest Call of Duty? A pack of Bowman for the rookie cards or some kind of fun app for their smart phone?
There are probably others, these are off the top of my head. Now I'm aware that my general surroundings represent quite a small sample size, and I really hope I am wrong about it, but I just can't see it any other way. Please tell me I'm wrong.
<< <i>1- the people my age are "getting back into it." the younger generations were seemingly never into it. I work in a college athletic department, with some cards framed in my office. The kids today never speak about their collections (because they don't have any). I also have worked at a summer baseball camp for years. The demand for baseball cards at the snack bar has steadily declined to almost nil. >>
A lot of people on this board fall into that category of the "getting back into it". Some have a lot of money to throw around and get the cards they always wanted as a kid. I know that I've picked up a few of those childhood desires. I can't be the only one. As long as "we" are around, the hobby will survive. Will it last beyond our generation? Who knows. Look at Lionel Trains. How many people younger than 45 are serious collectors of those? Look on ebay at Lionel Train sales. Some of those collections trump my baseball card collection with ease.
<< <i>2- the lack of interest in baseball in general has something to do with it in my opinion as well. The rise of lacrosse has killed a lot of the interest (and talent) pool in baseball. The lack of interest in baseball, and baseball history is staggering. College baseball players ages 18-22 without a clue of who Bob Feller was... will they really care to own his rookie card? >>
IMO, there is no significant lacking of interest in baseball. There will always be some type of revolving door of interest. A good litmus test will be when major companies stop advertising at the stadiums, attendance at games falls off a cliff, salaries start to decline and MLB network goes off the air. How many lacrosse games can you catch on TV in a given year? As for the history of the game, that might be a valid argument.
<< <i>3- the internet. Much like newspaper box scores, the information on the back of cards is becoming obsolete. A fun fact about Alvaro Espinosa is now just a click of a mouse away. Just how many wins did Julian Tavarez have out of the bullpen in his rookie season? Couple swipes away on the iPad. >>
I don't think people collect cards solely for the information on the back of the card. People put together sets of teams, players, and years. Besides, how often do people randomly Google: fun facts about (fill in the blank)
<< <i>4- where people spend their disposable income. Technological options are abundant - would someone rather buy a nice box of cards right now or get the latest Call of Duty? A pack of Bowman for the rookie cards or some kind of fun app for their smart phone? >>
A lot of people use cards as a form of investment. Now, people here will say they don't care what their cards are worth. I don't believe that. You spend $1000 on a Ted Williams Play Ball and then can only get $5 for it, you will be upset. If a collector puts serious money into their collection, they want to know that it will either be worth more at some point in the future or at the very least get back what they put into it. Or to look at the historic perspective of it and know that you are holding a piece of history, maybe something that is museum quality. Technological toys become useless in shorter periods of time.
<< <i>Please tell me I'm wrong. >>
You're wrong.
However, among young people, that interest in baseball and its accompanying desire to collect baseball cards HAS fallen off a cliff.
Young people do indeed put their money into gaming at an alarmingly higher percent than they do that of baseball cards, and that will become a problem down the road for baseball cards. It is rare for people to pick up collecting baseball cards if they never collected in their formative years.
People do look at baseball cards as an investment, but that doesn't mean they are wise in doing so. People will support the investment theory by pointing to the value of cards now, compared to that of 25 years ago(but they always seem to point to the 10% that gained, and ignore the 90% that failed). Also, most of the people who made out well bought their cards before baseball card collecting hit its height in the 80's. Now it is like finding a needle in a haystack to pick the right cards that will increase in value by 50x(and actually retain that value for the next 25 years).
However, from here on out it will be different, because right now isn't the same thing as it was 25 years ago, and 25 years from now will be far different than now...mainly being that 25 years from now the people who were collectors and have died off will not be replaced with incoming collectors at the same rate, because it is rare to find a young collector today.
Then you have the problem of economic woes taking a bite out of budgets. The guys that say, "I can't wait for prices to fall, because then I will be buying all those cards I always wanted," simply won't make a difference, because those guys don't have enough money to save the falling prices. If they did have enough money, then they would have those cards already, because none of those cards are rare. They simply don't have the bank to save a falling card trend.
If there is ever going to be a "fall" (which I do not think there will be), it is going to be long after everyone reading this has passed. So enjoy the hobby and stop worrying about it.
I see PSA 8 1988 Fleer Jordan's going unsold for $20. Back around 2000 I would get $40-$50 for those easy! That is the state of the majority of cards from just ten years ago. Probably every card from the 70's, 1980's has fallen the same way or wore(to worthless).
Some things are in a 'hot' period, but those will come down too.
Some pre war has increased or maintained, and the artificial stuff like low pop high grade commons, some graded 10 cards have maintained. However, some of those 10's and 9's went for insane prices in late 90's/early 2000's and they are barely a fraction of that now! Look at a lot of the Fleer Jordan stuff that sold for insane amounts in 9's or 10's back in the day as an example.
Once the few who spend crazy amount of money on artificial high grade stuff go away, there won't be replacements spending the same coin.
All that being said, 25 years from now, all the true big spenders will be gone, and the teenagers of today will not be replacing them.
So, RookieWax, if you or a few others graduate to the big leagues by buying quality pre war, then who will be there to buy the stuff that you currently spend your collecting money on???? Not enough new people will be there. It will end up like all the other stuff that sits unsold for a fraction of what it was ten years ago, like those '88 Jordan's.
Unopened wax is still hot, and barring a trust catastrophe, that may last a while longer. But eventually, when nobody cares about the contents, that will have problems too.
First a couple of important factors:
The number of 15 year old who collect baseball cards today is far less than it was in the height of cards(1980's). They spend their money on other things, mainly on gaming...cards aren't even an afterthought, they are a 'never thought of'. 30 years from now, the 12-15 year olds of today's world will be counted on to fill the void that will happen by then.
Look at who spends the most money on cards now, and that is the age group that is on the wrong side of 50 years of age. Sure, there are a few wealthy outliers that are younger, but the majority of the big spenders are older.
To simplify, you basically have three classes of collectors:
1. The big spenders. These are typically the over age 50 group. As an example, they buy up the quality pre war or the high grade post war. They may have big collections because they are wealthy, or a lot of these guys have massive collections because they bought pre 1970 when it was cheap. It is doubtful many would be able to rebuild their collection if they were starting from scratch today.
Who is going to take their place when they are mostly gone 30 years from now? The cards in their price range will fall if there are less people competing to buy them. Will the guys in the next group pick up the slack? If prices fall, more guys from the bottom level will come into this area.
2. The average collector. It is a wide range in spending power in this group. Some dabble in pre war, but could only afford a Ruth or two just to say they own one. They may try to build a 50's or 60's set, but doubtful they have the bank to put together a set run from 1952- present. They have to typically specialize. Maybe a HOF subset, you get the idea. This group simply does not have the disposable income to graduate to the above group, otherwise they would be there already. This group also typically missed out on getting all the expensive stuff, because they weren't alive to buy it when it was cheap(pre 1970's)...though they greatly desire to have the expensive stuff, and will gobble it up when it drops in price.
So 30 years from now, how many guys will be able to fill the void of the big spenders above ?? Even if this group overcomes the economic disadvantages they have and there were enough of these guys to fill the void in buying the high priced stuff in the above group, then who will be buying all the stuff that these guys used to buy??
If a guy from this group all of a sudden has a chance to put his yearly 15k into a card or two from the above group, then who will replace the 15k that they would have spent on cards in the budget of this group???
There are only two possibilities to fill this void in this group, the guys in the bottom level(which won't happen), or the people that are 15 years old today(new collectors)...whom which don't even think about cards.
3. The bottom feeders. They are happy with mid grade 70's stuff and 80's stuff. They don't have money, and have careers that will probably never give them enough money to go into an upper group.
The bottom line is that unless more young people today start getting into collecting, there is no place for cards to go but down! Some will fall faster than others, and that is seen already(cards that the bottom feeders buy or the low level second group...your PSA 8 Jordan's etc...).
Top cards still get good coin or even increase...but those buyers will be gone, and who is going to fill their void? Those will fall more slowly because they will still be the target among all collectors...but remember, when these cards are bought up by the average collector, who is going to be buying the stuff THEY used to spend their money on? Not enough people!
How to fix? Get the young people collecting again. How is that going to happen? That is the stuff people with vested interest in cards should be debating...not debating and getting mad at the people who do see the writing on the wall.
People with vested interest have to get young people to carry on the tradition. I hope they do, because it is a great hobby!!! Far better than playing video games!
PS, BASEBALL, good ideas, but cards have more competition. Actually, Old video games ARE something that older people buy
Older people will be gaming still from this generation. People in their 30'/40's still game.
You are correct that people DO all of a sudden get into collecting things at age 40, and that has happened and will continue to happen in baseball card collecting, HOWEVER, in the past that has corresponded with an abundance of collectors who have engrained themselves in collecting at a young age, an event which produced a boom in baseball card collecting. Unfortunately, in the future, you will only be left with the scattered few who all of a sudden get into collecting at age 40...but lost are a large population of the collectors who were in it because they were brought up on it as it was the thing to do when they were young. Those people are the driving force in the market for baseball cards, not the scattered few you are counting on.
Sorry if that fact bothers you, don't be mad at me for pointing out the obvious...get the younger guys in, and the boom will last longer.
Really, the world population is growing, so that is a benefit to baseball cards? Aren't the fastest growing places Africa and India? Nuff said.
Besides, that is probably a detriment, because as the population becomes larger, it is the necessities and natural resources that become more expensive to buy, and that is where the money will go my friend...not into baseball cards.
P.S. The expensive ART is rare...baseball cards are anything but rare. It may be a finite number of baseball cards, but that finite number is EXTREMELY high.
There will still be guys like you with that collecting path, however, the majority of the collectors collected during their formative years...and you are losing those guys....and the competition for cards only grows and grows.
So that leaves you with two things for 30 years from now:
1. Less baseball card collectors than ever with money
2. More competition than ever as an alternative to baseball cards
There is actually a third thing, and that is the economy as a whole with a bleak future(not saying doomsday, but bleak for sure).
Buy cards because you enjoy them, not as an investment.
PS. There is a fourth thing....less and less kids also do not even watch sports, and will not even know a Ron LeFlore to even care! They play video games, not watch baseball.
And by the way, how much did the Dodgers just get in their new TV deal????
Yes, pro sports will be hurt when this generation is the ticket buyers in 30 years. Kids today put their money and interest into other things compared to kids of 30 years ago who put more into watching sports or collecting cards.
I also wouldn't feel too rosey about the Dodgers deal, because other clubs aren't as lucky. Also, look at the NHL, it is already downhill, the NBA following in its path. Baseball not as strong as you think. Football will always be strong as long as gambling is involved(but that doesn't translate to collecting)...and this is right now.
SO yes, 30 years from now, I don't see pro sports as important to the kids of this generation, and certainly not card collecting.
Sorry you don't like that trend, and you are upset with me for pointing out the obvious...but at least you are being given a heads up so that you have an opportunity to get more collectors.
You should go survey a bunch of 12-15 year old boys and ask them the following questions verbally:
1. What is a Topps card?
2. What is Xbox live?
3. How many apps do you have?
4. Who was better, Prince Fielder or Mark Teixeira?
5. Which game is better, Halo or Call of Duty?
6. When the World Series was on did you watch that, or did you play Xbox live, or were you texting?
But really, the only question that matters is....
-When you got your Christmas money, what did you buy?
PS, Baseball I have a decent amount vested myself. However, some things I like to keep because I like them. If I go hungry and can't pay bills, then I would sell them. Otherwise, they are nostalgic to keep around.
Just ask the kids those questions. I'm not making their choices, I'm just reporting it.
Also, ask them what they got for Christmas.
As for the communities on Youtube, there probably are collecting communities...but how many gaming communities are there??
Athletic men will play sports, but even kids that play sports now spend so much time playing, that they barely watch. These kids play 70 games of baseball a year. The next biggest chunk of their time is spent gaming.
Ask them and observe them...don't be mad at me for pointing out what they do.
In the future, an adults main collecting focus will be obtaining a paycheck.
Objectivly you are the ONE.
Edit to add: if ever!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
If there is one thing I would invest in, it would be unopened, especially at the rates you guys rip it. That is one thing that actually has rarity(in the really older packs), and loses in supply(with all the rips).
My only concern would be the guys that get good at resealing.
Plus it has extra nostalgia in it because it is still 'unopened' from way back when.
UNPLUG PEOPLE THERE IS A WORLD HERE!!
<< <i>
<< <i>In the future, an adults main collecting focus will be obtaining a paycheck. >>
Apart from your obvious doomsday depiction of the future, people will need to spend time with leisure activities. Some will golf, fish, travel, hunt, etc. A lot of those non-collecting activities require a lot of money to maintain. The entire collective value of the high grade vintage card market is not that large by any means.
Your entire logic is based on nostalgia and what kids do. That would explain why adults came into the card market to buy the Mantles of their youth back in the 1980s-1990s. It wouldn't explain why people like us, who never watched Mantle or Mays or Ruth play, salivate over their cards. Or why those adults who never watched or collected Ruth cards decided to pay most for those. Ask any long-time coin dealer about attendance at shows. People worry because of the age of collectors at every show being on average probably in their mid to late 50s, if not older. Yet it's been like that forever.
I'll state it for the record once again, I would LOVE to see the card market crash, even if I knew it would never come back. I want people to throw away their Mint Ruths and Mantles at me and I'll "overpay" for them. I don't think it will happen but I hope your right. >>
Those examples are of people that think of cards as they were in the midst of the height of the 80's market. 'Everyone' was buying cards then...so many people bought cards to put into a closet thinking they would hit it big and pay for their kids college, because it was very popular. That is not the environment right now. There are even a lot of people who assume that the baseball market is completely dead because all of those investments tanked big time...you've seen the articles. They aren't accurate about the market being dead, but that is a thought among a lot of people.
Unless you get that hoopla again, and the younger generation starts buying into it, cards will take a big hit when these kids reach their buying years. A few who have the desire to collect will do so...but the hoopla is not there now among the young people to even point them in that direction. It simply is not the same as then.
When you put all your money into the bargain Ruth's...who is going to fill the void of the stuff you bought/collected?? They won't be there. There aren't going to be grandma's buying an '86 Donruss set for their grandson because of the hoopla like back in the day, or in the future buying a 2030 Topps set for their grandson when they would rather be playing Black Ops 18.
Handyman, living space is a necessity...the others are just more examples of competition that kids and adults will have instead of baseball cards. People like the newest electronic gadgets and love spending their cash on that...more so than baseball cards.
Who cares?
aconte
The hoopla from the general population and young people is over. That time has passed, and baseball card collecting no longer holds the place among young people as it once did, which will unfortunately have a negative effect in the future.
I said from the very beginning that the big buyers are alive and well, thus strong prices for the good pre war stuff. The good pre war stuff was underpriced during the hoopla years...people spent incorrectly then
From now compared to the hoopla years, for every mint ruth that made a 10 fold increase, there are ten other cards that made a 10 fold decrease. There are 660 cards in the 1986 Donruss set that completely tanked.
Every mid grade star card that was sold off as near mint back in the day, also tanked, which dwarfs the ones that were truly mint and made money.
How are those 1990 Leaf cards doing for you that did so well for so many years?
How many 1987, 1988, and 1989 Fleer basketball sets do you have hoping to fund your kids college? Those were hot for a good 12 years. Where are they now? They will never reach the heights they were at, even the high grade ones.
What do you think will happen to those cards 30 years from now when nobody at all wants them? They will go to an Ebay wasteland.
People will have to pay more money for food and gas, and their disposable income for the newest electronic and computer gadgets...you actually think cards will increase in that environment?
Bottom line, if you are going into this right now with an investment in mind, it is a losing proposition. If you are spending 20k on cards today, considering all the things I presented that point to a decline, even if somehow in the face of all that your 20k worth of cards that you invested in is worth 25k in 30 years...once you take listing and selling fees out and account for inflation, you will have lost money, and that is if your cards actually 'gain' in value!
Now imagine if what I am saying even comes a little true and your 20k becomes 18k, then fees and inflation.
If what I am saying comes to reality, that 20k will most likely be 12k, then fees and inflation.
I'm not talking about losing complete interest. There should be a long time for some interest.
If you buy because of enjoyment, then you will have no problems. The cards will decline, but you will have received a pleasure benefit from it, kind of like going to the movies.
There may be 1% of items in this genre that may still increase significantly 30 years from now...good luck finding them. A few wise people will.
Unless you guys figure out a way for American people to stop putting disposable income and thousands of dollars into Ipads, cell phones, LED TV's; and find a way to get young people to even know what a baseball card is, the future isn't the brightest.
Don't be upset with me for pointing out the obvious. Go out there and try to broaden the horizons' of today's youth if you want to stop this from happening!
I am 42 and grew up during the height of the card frenzy, at its peak it was insane.
Its true that kids are mainly into gaming and electronic devises and texting more than anything, another thing the amount of time spent playing baseball is a fraction of what it was when I was a kid, more and more kids play Lacross, Soccer and Hockey rather than Baseball. When I was in Junior High School I knew exactly who Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Ty Cobb, Cy Young was, I bet less than 10% of kids that age across America have no idea who those guys were. When these kids become adults are they really going to have interest in these guys cardboard? Another thing is this hobby is no longer the slice of apple pie it was before the scammers and money hungry Sharks got involved, this Hobby got ruined along time ago and is now a greed filled arena where the first thought that comes across the majority of peoples minds are "How much is it worth"
Objectivity stated, "Who is going to take their place when they are mostly gone 30 years from now?"
Is this really the timeframe we all agreed upon to discuss? 25 or 30 years is a long, long time-- to me at least. I'll be 66 in 30 years-- if I'm even alive. The simple fact is that no one can predict with even a modicum of certainty what will happen in that distant a time. When pitching a business to receive investment, most people don't like to model or project past a mere two year span-- because everyone knows how unreliable models become as you move forward in time. I can't believe so many card enthusiasts are butting heads over what the state of the hobby will be in a quarter century from now. So much can happen.
But whatever happens, is it relevant to any collectors' enjoyment of the hobby? Does Collector X enjoy cards? Does he buy what he likes and prices with which he is comfortable? If he buys solely for investment purposes, is he really looking at a 25 year timeframe before reselling? If not, then what's the point in this debate?
It was also asserted in an above post that: "this group (the average collector) simply does not have the disposable income to graduate to the above group (the big spender), otherwise they would be there already.
So this means no one ever sees their income rise during their lifetime? Did I miss something? I think many people are not born into extreme wealth and can grow to become "big spenders" if they so choose and through hard work.
The hobby as it is now isn't changing much one way or the other over the next decade or two or maybe even three. Too many men aged 30-40 are into it and contributing to what it is now, and they will still only be 60-65 in that time (and it is just as likely that they will then be spending more on cards as their income increases, as it is to reason the economy will decline and their salaries will be cut).
I for one only care to look at things in 1 to maybe 5 year windows, and I'm happy to buy as many cards as I love and can afford during that time. The prices of the cards that lead the hobby will NOT be skyrocketing or plummeting in a reasonable window of time.
Objectivity wrote: "People with vested interest have to get young people to carry on the tradition. I hope they do, because it is a great hobby!!!"
I could not agree more. I am getting my two kids into cards and collecting bigtime, they are already showing signs of growing into it.
It was also stated that: "Actually, Old video games ARE something that older people buy ! Older people usually buy stuff that was nostalgic to their youth. If card collecting was never on their radar, it makes it less likely that it will be when they are 40 because the nostalgia isn't there. It also hurts that baseball interest in general is falling."
I am 36 and game a great deal. I also bought both cards and a vintage Pac Man arcade with my very first paycheck after college. There is room for both. But it is true in my case that had I not collected as a boy I would not be collecting now.
Bottom line, I think this 30-year window that been bandied about is kind of silly and impossible to predict. What I can take away from this discussion and agree with is that we should definitely get our kids to enjoy our hobby. I don't know how we can accurately measure interest in baseball going down or predict where the economy will be in thirty years.
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<< <i>People will have to pay more money for food and gas, and their disposable income for the newest electronic and computer gadgets...you actually think cards will increase in that environment? >>
I think that there will be a segment of the population (and almost all of it to varying degrees) that will always have disposable income and will use it for their choice of leisure activities. The only question that remains is where cards will reside on that pecking order. So if you disagree with that, then we agree to disagree. If you agree but just have a problem with cards, you haven't come close to convincing me exactly why it would become displaced and by what exactly. >>
I love cards, have no beef with them...but this stuff is pretty obvious.
You guys are counting on a 180 dgree turn from these kids who don't care about cards now, thinking that they will become collectors like other adults do.... because you are thinking of how you yourself think(but your thought is prejudiced having gone through the card boom yourself, whether or not you actually bought at that time). Yes, some will decide to collect, but you also lose a large portion forever, compared to the ones that were reared on cards during the boom, whom are your big collectors now.
Ask the kids all those questions I presented. Ask every kid you see what they spent their Christmas money on...if you guys can't see the importance of that, I wish you well, and will have to bow out at that point...because NONE of the points you made account for this giant loss of baseball card collecting force that will no longer be there down the road, If you can't see the importance of that, then God bless.
If you don't like it, then get more young people involved.
Buy cards, I will too...because I like them.
The points made here notwithstanding, the sports card industry will collapse, just not on the short timeline professed. For any industry to expand, new money needs to be coming in. Right now, key vintage prices are going up, not because new collectors are coming into the hobby, but because those who collected as kids are returning or because the collectors who are here are entering their prime earning ages.
The reason kids need to be involved is so that when they reach their 30s, the nostalgia will kick in and they'll buy the cards they wanted as kids, demand will go up for an asset with a shrinking supply and the prices will rise. As there are no kids coming in, and as the collectors who are currently propping up the market age and pass away, most prices will fall.
An excellent example is the stamp industry. My uncle is a well known stamp dealer who has been collecting since the early 1960s. The truly rare stamps (not conditional rarities mind you, but those with just a few examples extant), continue to climb in price. However, 99.999% of stamps are falling in value and prices noticeably drop whenever a major collector passes away and his collection hits the market. There are certain sectors of postal history where only one or two collectors (who are in their 80s) are living and the dealers now refuse to buy that product at any price.
For our purposes, we're years away from the stamp industry, but it is coming. It's been coming since the mid-90s, when the kids were priced out of the market. In my lifetime, I expect to see a second precipitous drop in values as registry set kings pass away with no collectors to replace them.
It's been a good run and I, for one, will continue to collect for pleasure, full well knowing that, should I keep my cards until my passing, they'll be worth far less than they were fifty years previous.
When I grew up trains and stamps were considered "old fashioned" and just plain "dorky". I think today's generation feels the same way about sports cards.
Well, the people that can't get anything for their cards collected the junk wax & over produced items of the 1990's. As we in the industry know, there are not many shops & shows, but log onto ebay and watch how many lots are sold every day. Take a look at the prices of nice, high grade vintage items. Take a look at the major auction houses & what items sell for. We know that for right now, the industry is very strong compared to the economy. But perception of the industry is that it is almost dead.
Back in the mid 1980's and up to about 1989, almost everything you bought would have up arrows in Beckett. You did not have to be a savory buyer to make money. But as time has passed, that has changed. And I think as we continue into the future, it will become harder & harder to successfully invest in cards for many of the reasons Objectivity has stated. Though it may become harder to make money, I really do not think the overall industry will spiral downward. As long as there are games being played, there will be collectors collecting, there will be dealers dealing, and there will be ups & downs.
Saying that, I don't think baseball cards are going away even with all of the doom and gloom scenarios that are being painted with kids not collecting anymore, and that there won't be a new generation to take over collecting in the future. As long as baseball is played, and new baseball cards are produced every year, baseball cards will always have value, and people will continue to collect them. The reason is simple: MONEY. Yes, it is this: $$$$. As long as people need and want dineros, they will always collect cards. Fast forward twenty years from now, and the kids today are adults. They never collected as kids. However, when they read about cards being sold for big bucks, they will get into the hobby because they want to make money, and have fun doing it. The best analogy that I can use here is coins. Nobody, I mean, absolutely nobody collected coins when they were kids. OK, I'm probably exaggerating but when I was growing up in the 1980s, out of every 200 people, 40 collected cards, and 2 collected coins, and those two coin collections where just a few wheat pennies and buffalo nickels. And right now, coins are arguably the hottest collectibles out there with huge values, that far outpaces the value of the metal inside them. Coins have a few advantages that cards do not have that people like such as they are government issued and the value of their metal is actually worth something unlike pieces of cardboard that cards come from.
Therefore as long as people want to collect cards, they will always hold value. And as long as they hold value, people will want to collect. It's that vicious or virtuous cycle, whatever you want to call it. So basically, if you want to collect cards that hold value, you just have to collect what other people also want to collect, and you have to pay a price for them that is fairly valued. Again, this is why, in my opinion, that I believe that absolute scarcity is better than grade scarcity. If you have 300 million people in America, and say 10,000 of them collect cards in one way or another, which cards do those people want to collect. If there are 20,000 copies of 1986 Fleer Jordan's out there, I think there is more potential that those cards can have more potential to drop than others. Then again, MJ is arguably the most famous athlete in existence right now, so every single collector wants one of his cards in their collection. That is how you have to think of it.
Any card can drop in value, especially if you buy it at the wrong time or price as others have said. However, a lot of cards are also hot right now, and I think as others have said that card prices are going up right now. I sell cards on ebay as a hobby, and for the most part, I have been able to sell for higher prices than I have last year. (I deal in prewar baseball so that is the area I know best.) There are some issues that do really well, and others that don't do so well, so you just have to pick and choose to the best of your knowledge. In my opinion, buying popular cards of big HOFers is the best way to go. For example, I cannot see why people pay hundreds or even thousands of dollars for a PSA 10 common from a 1960s set. Same thing for a rare prewar type card of a common player no one heard of. If I want to spend that kind of money, I would want to be able to enjoy looking at the card all of the time, and not just because my registry set went up a hundredth of a point so now I am #2 all time.
When buying stocks, just about the only satisfaction one gets is when the stock goes up, and they see the total value of their portfolio go up. However, with cards, you can get this and other things too, such as the satisfaction of just looking at your card, and enjoying it. If it's the highest graded card or you are only one of 10 people to own that card, you can also get satisfaction that way also. This is another reason why I think cards as well as other collectibles will always hold value. Because there are more ways to enjoy them rather than just seeing some number on your computer screen. Again, I will never understand someone showing a Gem Mint common and saying that is the pride of their collection. I don't think those cards will hold their value. However, there is another thread going on here on cards that every collector should own (Link). As long as there pop isn't too high, I think those cards will do well. The lower the pop, the better. However, as the economy improves, more people will have the means to buy more cards, which will probably lift the value of more than just these. Happy collecting!
Lou Gehrig Master Set
Non-Registry Collection
Game Used Cards Collection
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Any card can drop in value, especially if you buy it at the wrong time or price as others have said. However, a lot of cards are also hot right now, and I think as others have said that card prices are going up right now. I sell cards on ebay as a hobby, and for the most part, I have been able to sell for higher prices than I have last year. (I deal in prewar baseball so that is the area I know best.) There are some issues that do really well, and others that don't do so well, so you just have to pick and choose to the best of your knowledge. In my opinion, buying popular cards of big HOFers is the best way to go. For example, I cannot see why people pay hundreds or even thousands of dollars for a PSA 10 common from a 1960s set. Same thing for a rare prewar type card of a common player no one heard of. If I want to spend that kind of money, I would want to be able to enjoy looking at the card all of the time, and not just because my registry set went up a hundredth of a point so now I am #2 all time.
When buying stocks, just about the only satisfaction one gets is when the stock goes up, and they see the total value of their portfolio go up. However, with cards, you can get this and other things too, such as the satisfaction of just looking at your card, and enjoying it. If it's the highest graded card or you are only one of 10 people to own that card, you can also get satisfaction that way also. This is another reason why I think cards as well as other collectibles will always hold value. Because there are more ways to enjoy them rather than just seeing some number on your computer screen. Again, I will never understand someone showing a Gem Mint common and saying that is the pride of their collection. I don't think those cards will hold their value. However, there is another thread going on here on cards that every collector should own (Link). As long as there pop isn't too high, I think those cards will do well. The lower the pop, the better. However, as the economy improves, more people will have the means to buy more cards, which will probably lift the value of more than just these. Happy collecting! >>
Agree 100%.
Sports will always be a huge part of our society.
Collecting will always be a huge part of our society.
Collecting rare pieces of a major sports star of our society will always be high on collectors desire lists.
Probably 85% or more of cards have gone down.
There are some examples like the '79 PSA 10 Ozzie Smith that went really high. Of course, there are also examples like the Tiger Woods PSA 10 card that went insanely high back then and is worth peanuts now. There are probably equal examples on both sides of those spectrums as that is how the market usually works in short term.
But what about the other 85% of the cards that constitute what the majority of people collect? Your PSA 8 Seaver rookie, your Ryan Rookie, the PSA 2 Goudey Ruth #144, a 1971 Ex/Mt topps set, a typical PSA 9 HOFer from the 60's, etc...
Are these typical cards even retaining their value now, compared to what they were selling for in 2000? So if you bought those cards in the year 2000, how would you have made out now?
Looking at Ebay and seeing all those cards being listed and going unsold, the prices of those cards look like they are either the same or gone down. Those Seaver cards in 8 still only hover around $1,000, and go unsold. That is about the same as they were doing in 2000, but they actually sold. The PSA 2 Goudey Ruths #144, the last two that sold were $1,300 and $1,000, which is the same or less than in the year 2000ish.
If you bought both of those cards, which represent the type of cards(grade, value, player) that 85% of people collect, you have not made any money on them or have even lost a little. If you try selling today for your price, it will sit there for a long time.
However, when you account for inflation....
That $1,000 in the year 2000 equals $1,336 in 2012. None of those typical cards have grown like that.
What did you buy in 1990 for $1,000? Is that worth $1,761 dollars today? If it is, congratulations, you just broke even!
Yes, kids aren't big coin collectors, and that is a decently strong hobby right now...but how much stronger would it be if for the past 40 years all the kids who collected baseball cards instead were reared on collecting coins??? You would have an army of coin collectors much stronger than it is today, and those prices would be even higher! Then what do you think would happen if all of a sudden you didn't have that army of coin collectors to draw from? Not that hard to figure out
Half kidding, of course. The one thing you must do is ENJOY YOURSELF. there are a lot of great collectors here, there and everywhere. If the ongoings of 2012 have not taught everyone to enjoy themselves, then i dont know what will. Tomorrow is NOT guaranteed people. People die everyday, good people, bad people, people. Hurricane Sandy killed people. you think those people KNEW they were going to die that day? of course not. Newtown? do i even have to type it?
So instead of bashing one another on the internet, enjoy the f*** out of yourself and your hobbies!
WTB: PSA 1 - PSA 3 Centered, High Eye Appeal 1950's Mantle
<< <i>What cards exactly have gone up in value since the late 90's/early2000's?
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I have around a thousand or more cards in my collection. Almost every single one has gone up since the late 1990s to early 2000s. I only collect Pre-WWII and a couple years later though. I love the history of the hobby and baseball. I collected in the late 60s and a lot of my hobby friends did too. The vintage market has come down in some more common lower end niches but overall, the rare stuff is still up. Many of the folks in Pre-War couldn't afford the best cards and now, a bit later in life, can and do. I thoroughly enjoy collecting so at worst case I love playing with, and studying, the cards. Happy collecting. (I agree the new stuff hasn't done too well, it seems more like gambling than collecting)