too much importance being placed on the general interests of today's kids.
it's pretty obvious that they no longer comprise the larger cross-section of the card collecting world, since there are so many other distractions available to them.
the future of collecting does fall into the hands of more mature people with diversified personal interests and those people won't go away as long as they have their sports.
sharing it with newer generations doesn't guarantee the health of the card world, nor should it, but it makes for good relationships.
then, those kids fall into place as another generation of adult collectors. they learn about their sports and its participants, then make a choice.
it's just transition. the numbers may change drastically, but the core will remain intact. even if there's only a few of us left before the next Armageddon, at least we'll have a hobby which doesn't require electricity to play.
<< <i>What cards exactly have gone up in value since the late 90's/early2000's?
>>
I have around a thousand or more cards in my collection. Almost every single one has gone up since the late 1990s to early 2000s. I only collect Pre-WWII and a couple years later though. I love the history of the hobby and baseball. I collected in the late 60s and a lot of my hobby friends did too. The vintage market has come down in some more common lower end niches but overall, the rare stuff is still up. Many of the folks in Pre-War couldn't afford the best cards and now, a bit later in life, can and do. I thoroughly enjoy collecting so at worst case I love playing with, and studying, the cards. Happy collecting. (I agree the new stuff hasn't done too well, it seems more like gambling than collecting) >>
Pre War has done well, and will be the last to see any drop in price, partly because they truly do have rarity...and also partly because the players from those times are seen as something 'other than human'.
Problem is, 30 years from now, when that army of collectors to draw from has dwindled, there won't be as many people to save the cards from falling in price.
When the people who buy PSA 8 Ryan rookies graduate to rare Pre War...there won't be enough people to purchase the PSA 8 Ryans, and they will fall(like they have already).
Even cards from Pre War aren't keeping up with inflation...like the Goudey Ruth's. Only the best of the best are still doing ok, and all the collectors are still here. What happens when the collecting pool drops?
I'm not talking about the army of collectors coming back right now(somebody else said that is what is a good sign that those guys are returning). I'm talking about the one that is not going to be there 30 years from now...compared to the one that was there and still going.
There is no question that people will collect cards if they never did as a kid, and that happens already. However, in conjunction with that there is also a good number of people who only collect as an adult because that is what they were reared on doing.
You are losing people from that second group because they aren't being 'taught' or being introduced to it as a 'way of life' like we were. That will hurt down the road.
I deal with large amounts of young people all the time...so I know what they are doing. I also knew what young people were doing back in the day. So yes, I do have comparisons to draw from.
Baseball, you can substitute a Bench rookie, carew rook, Yaz rookie...all of those are in the same boat as Ryan or Seaver rookies. Same for the Goudey Ruth's.
You can't just dismiss inflation. Your $1,200 Ruth today isn't worth as much today, as your $1,200 ruth was in 2000. That is reality.
Investing is a big portion of the discussion.
Only the best of the best(mostly pre war) has risen in price AND beat inflation.
Basically you are agreeing with me if you are saying "only the high grade vintage will hold its prices," because that only represents about 5% of the card market...the rest is dying already. They just sit there with buy it nows from people hoping to get prices from 10 years ago.
True quality will outperform the norm. Over the years, through the swells and the lulls, quality material has maintained the greatest return. I'm not talking about false scarcity or hype, I'm talking about the cream of the crop for the issue or the era.
While such baseball players as Mantle, Koufax and Clemente have been bluechips in the "vintage" arena, there has always been a little flux in the value of the midgrade, or common material. But when you look at the higher end, well centered and problem free examples, you see that quality reaps the greatest return in either an up or down market.
I hear the woes of those that sit on "common" vintage material. The thought that vintage is golden is only true in a strong market. In a soft market, the plethora of similar midgrade material suffers as buyers become more concerned with where and upon what they spend their discretionary income.
The modern market is probably the most volatile. From player performance, PED worries or accusations, increased populations and artificially created scarcity (serial numbered cards and temporarily low pops), there is a plethora of landmines that the collector must navigate and attempting to liquidate become as much luck of the draw as being able to strike when the iron is hot.
Prewar is a totally different animal altogether and considering the thinness of the market and the limited interest from a vast majority of the hobby, it really doesn't apply to the current discussion.
I still think that there are several areas of the hobby that have yet to reach their full potential and, while I'm not as versed in them as I would like to be, I've found many opportunities to add items to my collection that I think have very significant upside. I will continue to explore these areas and I hope to increase my understanding so as to allow me to better position myself and my collecting catalog for future gain as well as enjoyability.
Nobody ever said they would be worthless...just not have the same value 30 years from now. The best of the best will be affected the least...and the common stuff the most.
Inflation is a big factor when worth or value comes into question. That is reality. Those becnh, yaz rc's etc aren't worth as much as they were ten years ago. And next year when they are still sitting on Ebay unsold for the same price, they will be worth less than now because inflation will eat away at it more. That will continue every year unless more buyers come into buying them(which aren't coming).
It isn't just the lack of kids that hurt. Collectors are branching big money into other things too. Comics get a lot of coin now, especially since all the Super Hero movies and shows like The Walking Dead. I'm not advocating comics as an investment, the boat has sailed on those probably already anyway, but they will continue to draw money away from other markets. .
Many Sophisticated collectors with money prefer Revolutionary War or Civil War documents, signed letters, Antique guns and swords, etc... Shows like Pawn Stars and American Pickers highlight items such as these, and there are a lot of people with big money who appreciate these rarities and see more investment potential than baseball cards that are relatively common and often seen as a dying breed.
People now, because of how much TV show and internet exposure, see all different collectible options that they probably would not have known existed 30 years ago. Back in the day, I didn't know about WWII posters issued by the U.S for bond buying...and I buy some of those cool ones once in a while instead of that Seaver RC that can be had any day of the week.
These are collectible competitors that weren't as popular back in the day, but are gaining(or have not yet gained
You brought up Art collectors previously. Those people view cards as toys and don't really give much thought to them. No, they didn't collect art as a kid, but all kids were introduced to fine art, and people who view themselves as a higher class prefer to put their money into rare art because they believe it cements their high class standing. Cards don't do that. They are viewed as a things KIDS collect.
You brought up vintage cars. How can a kid collect a vintage car? But they all drive them eventually, and guys like fast things. That is a natural extension,)
<< <i>The shows may be contrived...but the items are not.
How long are those PSA 8 Seavers going to sit on Ebay? If you are so confident in them, you should buy the ones that are up there now. >>
i'm shocked that you honestly believe that the unsold product on eBay is a measure of the market.
it's nothing more than a tiny percentage of what actually happens. the only reason it seems to be such a strong representation is because it's visible.
why would i want to buy stuff that is grossly overpriced and perhaps overgraded, when i have already achieved success at pursuing the same product for cheaper? hmmm?
Itzagoner, there I took out the names of a show so you weren't completely derailed by the overall point
If those Seavers are overpriced, then what happened? They use to sell for that price. I thought cards were supposed to hold and go up in value?
It isn't just the lack of kids that hurt. Collectors are branching big money into other things too. Comics get a lot of coin now, especially since all the Super Hero movies and shows like The Walking Dead. I'm not advocating comics as an investment, the boat has sailed on those probably already anyway, but they will continue to draw money away from other markets. .
Many Sophisticated collectors with money prefer Revolutionary War or Civil War documents, signed letters, Antique guns and swords, etc... the advent of cable shows and the internet highlight items such as these and show that they do exist and are available...and there are a lot of people with big money who appreciate these rarities and national treasures from the days our country was founded, and see more investment potential than baseball cards that are very common and often seen as a dying breed.
People now, because of how much TV show and internet exposure, see all different collectible options that they probably would not have known existed 30 years ago. Back in the day, I didn't know about WWII posters issued by the U.S for bond buying...and I buy some of those cool ones once in a while instead of that Seaver RC that can be had any day of the week.
These are collectible competitors that weren't as popular back in the day, but are gaining(or have not yet gained
You brought up Art collectors previously. Those people view cards as toys and don't really give much thought to them. No, they didn't collect art as a kid, but all kids were introduced to fine art, and people who view themselves as a higher class prefer to put their money into rare art because they believe it cements their high class standing. Cards don't do that. They are viewed as a things KIDS collect.
You brought up vintage cars. How can a kid collect a vintage car? But they all drive them eventually, and guys like fast things. That is a natural extension,)
Wow. The Thirty Year Debate is still going strong I see!
For the sanity of some of those involved-- just...walk...away.
On one hand it's been stated here that it's imperative for kids to get into cards now, because they won't when they get older... Then it's stated that cards will decline in part because adults will get into collectibles totally new to them, such WWII items and those featured on Pawn Stars and Storage Wars.
FWIW, I saw an episode of Pawn Stars last night with cards and a Gretzky contract in it-- that sports item made the biggest profit of the episode. I also saw a Storage Wars episode that featured a bunch of cards that the characters on the show were happy to find.
I also saw some Bob's Big Boy toys and Barbies that were worth some money-- but oddly I don't feel compelled to collect them.
So what does this all mean for the health of baseball cards in 30 years?
I don't know. No one does. Especially in a debate where an agreed-upon DEFINITION of "baseball cards" in the above sentence is not in place.
Wil a case of 91 Fleer be worth less in 30 years. I think so, if that's even possible.
In 30 years, will you take a bath on that PSA 4 52T Mantle with great centering that you really want to buy this year? I don't think so AT ALL. But do you care if it drops in value in 30 years?
There are just so many terms undefined in this discussion. When we say high grade vintage is only 5% of the market, what does this mean? Some are talking market volume, some market value. It's such a messy discussion.
The below statement that I quote has so much personal opinion based on personal assumptions-- and because we are all entitled to our opinions, we can all have this debate about a crazy time period from now with our own definitions of the subject cards til we're blue in the face:
1. Many Sophisticated collectors with money prefer Revolutionary War or Civil War documents, signed letters, Antique guns and swords, etc...
Really? Define "sophisticated collector." I know many by my notion of such who do not prefer such documents over cards or art or cars or sports items.
2. Shows like Pawn Stars and American Pickers highlight items such as these, and there are a lot of people with big money who appreciate these rarities and see more investment potential than baseball cards that are relatively common and often seen as a dying breed.
Those shows also highlight cards. There have always been options to cards. Just because an option is seen on a reality show does not necessarily mean it will cause a decrease in all other options, including cards. If cards were highlighted in one episode, does that really mean the high end furniture collectors of the world will suddenly run and put more money now into cards than furniture, and thus furniture prices will collapse? The logic here is flawed/specious.
3. You brought up Art collectors previously. Those people view cards as toys and don't really give much thought to them.
Now this whole debate is unraveling and becoming too sprawling to remain tenable. Are we all saying we need collectors from one arena to enter cards for cards to maintain value? I know people who have Picassos and sports items. What does this mean? Also, to insinuate that someone who owns a Picasso looks down on a 52 Mantle or 55 Koufax or M101 Ruth is flat out wild assumption that cannot be measured or verified. I know a few men personally who are worth 9 digits who adore sports items including cards AND other collectibles including fine art as well. Once such bold opinions that are not at all based on fact enter a debate, it's hard to keep the conversation going.
4. ...they didn't collect art as a kid, but all kids were introduced to fine art, and people who view themselves as a higher class prefer to put their money into rare art because they believe it cements their high class standing. Cards don't do that. They are viewed as a things KIDS collect.
Says who? Kids were introduced to fine art but not sports? Huh? And this view of the upper income class and their psychology is profoundly reductive and presumptuous.
5. You brought up vintage cars. How can a kid collect a vintage car? But they all drive them eventually, and guys like fast things. That is a natural extension,)
Guys don't like sports or learning about sports legends?
--------------------------
I agree with Objectivity that it's great for the hobby LONG, LONG TERM (30+) years to get kids today into it, to share our enthusiasm. But this whole debate about what cards will gain or lose value in 30 years is an exercise in futility, to me at least.
I like well centered examples of key HOF sportscards from PreWar to the 80s. Some are high grade, some lower, depends on the eye appeal of the example that I come across. I can't afford $15,000+ cards at this moment, maybe in the future, but if anyone has such examples and wants to bail out now because of what might happen in 30 years, PM me and I'll happily take them off your hands. I'm not diverting my funds from cards to start to collect the random stuff glimpsed on an episode of Pawn Stars.
I'm truly not concerned right now with what happens to my cards in 2043. Around 2035, I might begin to think about the 2043 value of my cards. Right now my decision to hold or sell my cards is based on what I see them valued at in a year or two-- because they can be sold very quickly if need be.
Cards were probably the most actively collected item, and there was a major boom. Point is, that will be gone(and it isn't gone yet). The prices will fall. My timeline on the fall is 30 years from now.
Do you want a percent to clarify? Some rough estimates 30 years from now, High end pre war loses 10% overall. 50's-60's loses 20%, 70's-80's loses 50%. Obviously within each of those, some will lose less and some will lose more.
Now you can get off that point on guessing incorrectly on what I am saying.
You keep saying inflation doesn't matter, but it does. That has a direct impact on the value of something. Just because you keep saying it doesn't matter doesn't change it.
Those other collectibles do draw away money from cards, and a lot of potential collectors didn't know they were available. More and more people are introduced to other avenues to put their collectible dollars into. A lot of people with money view cards as something that kids collect. Well at least kids used to collect them
Kids may not know famous artists(though you may be surprised). I'm probably sure kids can name more artists than they can pre war baseball players. However, that is not the main point on that. The main point is that people who do dabble in expensive art view cards as a kids hobby, and don't bother putting their money there. That negates your point about people who are adults and never collected before will all of a sudden start pouring money into baseball cards like they do in fine art. Not gonna happen. Fine art can actually be rare. PSA 9's are man made rarity and are not rare.
If your argument is banking on the modest money, then you are in trouble, because those baseball cards will be the hardest hit. Heck, they are hit hard already.
30 years from now, people with modest money will have more pressing needs than ANY collectibles anyway.
"If those Seavers are overpriced, then what happened? They use to sell for that price. I thought cards were supposed to hold and go up in value?"
----------------------
This is such terribly flawed, reductive, specious reasoning. To the discriminating buyer, every card is like a person-- to be treated and judged as an individual. Not all PSA 8 Seavers are the same. We'd have to see the card AND the price being asked to speak accurately. I will bet big money that if the card is right or strong for the grade it would sell for a healthy price.
Is it a BIN? How do we know good offers haven't been made and turned down?
If it's an overgraded or ugly 8, and it's not selling, we're supposed to take this as evidence of a declining market?
I saw a Dean's Cards 1953 Mantle in 4.5 that was beautiful. They were asking too much for me, based on past sales. I made many good offers, all declined. My offers would be highs for VCP. The card remains unsold. Does the fact that it sits on an ebay store shelf not moving mean there is something wrong withe card market?
The thesis of this thread needs many of its terms solidly defined for all of us to make the discussion tenable. What time frame? What cards? Until all these are agreed upon, it's hard to even engage.
Skin, I think it's time you brought out the Ryan Howard/Dave Kingman analogy again..
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Do you want a percent to clarify? Some rough estimates 30 years from now, High end pre war loses 10% overall. 50's-60's loses 20%."
Objectivity,
All I can say is I hope you are right!
So many of the cards I lust after would fall into achievable range if this happens-- at 66 I hope I'll be healthy and solvent enough to get and enjoy them!
And if those numbers qualify as a downward spiral, then this hobby is much healthier than many other places one can park their money
<< <i>"If those Seavers are overpriced, then what happened? They use to sell for that price. I thought cards were supposed to hold and go up in value?"
----------------------
This is such terribly flawed, reductive, specious reasoning. To the discriminating buyer, every card is like a person-- to be treated and judged as an individual. Not all PSA 8 Seavers are the same. We'd have to see the card AND the price being asked to speak accurately. I will bet big money that if the card is right or strong for the grade it would sell for a healthy price.
Is it a BIN? How do we know good offers haven't been made and turned down?
If it's an overgraded or ugly 8, and it's not selling, we're supposed to take this as evidence of a declining market?
I saw a Dean's Cards 1953 Mantle in 4.5 that was beautiful. They were asking too much for me, based on past sales. I made many good offers, all declined. My offers would be highs for VCP. The card remains unsold. Does the fact that it sits on an ebay store shelf not moving mean there is something wrong withe card market?
The thesis of this thread needs many of its terms solidly defined for all of us to make the discussion tenable. What time frame? What cards? Until all these are agreed upon, it's hard to even engage. >>
MattyC, there are enough examples of the Seaver RC and all other cards of similar ilk that have just been stagnating since 2000. With inflation, those have already lost value.
This is during a time where we are still sort of in a boom(the boom being Pre War, & high grade vintage). The rest already crashed.
You are right though, a lot of different tangents in this debate.
-high grade pre war -rare pre war -mid grade pre war -low grade pre war
-40's-50's high grade -40's-50's mid grade
etc...
Really, since the market crashed, only high grade pre war, rare pre war, and some mid grade pre war have made gains. And PSA 9's and 10's of some select post war cards. (Many of those actually went down too).
Everything else is either stagnating or has crashed already. Taking inflation into account, they have failed big time. Will it crash even more down the road??
Will the high grade stay, or will that go down eventually like all the other cards did?
PS and so Grote doesn't get fired up...unopened may have been the best performer.
I guess it's all in the approach. I don't look at the totality of Seaver PSA 8s-- except to comb them for the strongest 8 I can find. One that can hang with a 9. When I find that card at a good price, then I get it. I hold it and get great enjoyment from looking at it and time traveling with it. Then if I am ever concerned with the sale of it, I am concerned only with the sale of that one strong example. Many times it bumps to an 8.5. If not, cool-- if ever the sale time comes it's about getting the card before the eyes of an equally discriminating buyer, who will recognize what's before him and pay accordingly, as did I.
If ever forced to sell by unfortunate circumstances, losing 10-20% is something I could live with-- I'd clearly have greater problems in life in that case than that percentage loss!
Truly, if we collect now and collect what we love for prices we can afford-- it's all good. No one can see the future. If card prices start to go down and someone then wants to sell, so be it.
So much Sturm und Drang here and really it gets us all nowhere. What gets me happiness is finding a Cracker Jack Cobb from 1914 in an eye appealing 2 or 3 holder! CW needs to sell me his!
My timeline guess would be 40-60 years. I don't think cards will go over a cliff but I do believe the collecting habits of people will lessen from a baseball card end and there will be a tempered excitement compared to what we see today where there is a great amount of participation in set registry collecting and decent amount of ebay buying.
<< <i>Once again, your propensity for redundancy won't let you get off the inflation aspect. Plenty of stocks (if not most) have lost value adjusting for inflation. Same could be said of real estate or comic books or antique toys, or signs, etc. >>
That may be true. It still doesn't change the fact that the value of baseball cards has to be adjusted for inflation if you are debating whether or not they are losing or gaining value.
If it is redundant for me to say that, then so be it, it still doesn't change the reality of it just because you want to try and ignore this facet because it hurts your side of the debate..
Is it not redundant for you to say the inflation doesn't come into play, even though you are wrong with your assertion??? Hmmm. Don't call out redundant when you are doing it yourself
Hey, don't be upset if you guessed incorrectly on my estimates. If you want to blame it on lack of articulation on a message board, and that makes you feel better for assuming incorrectly, so be it.
MattyC, you have a good plan and an amicable attitude. I think your collecting plan is good. Aren't you the guy who was trying to get the Star Jordan's to be graded by PSA? Now that is an example of a good plan where you can create an increase in a cards value. Kind of like Dpeck did with his promoting and showing of wrestling cards, and kind of like the advance of media highlighting other collectibles to help them grow.
Baseball, your job can be to get the kids back into collecting so the cards can benefit with a stabilization of value down the road
Personally, I think people will always collect things, baseball cards not excluded. I was reading one of my old SCD's a few months ago, it was from either the late 70's or early 80's and guess what? they were saying the same things back then that people say today. Will the prices sustain, will kids stay interested in cards? Who will be the buyers of cards 30 years from now?
The funny thing is, people think kids collecting cards have always driven the market but whenever I look in my old SCD"s or old hobby publications, you still see way more adults than kids in the old photos from card shows in the 70's and 80's.
I understand all that about other options. If one wants to look deeper into the economic prospects and the factors that will really drag down the cards down the road, compared to other avenues, it may even get worse.
When the economy goes bad, people will still 'invest' in houses, cars, etc...because they need them. Collectibles will be an afterthought. You dismiss all that as gloom and doom. I sure hope you are right, because things do not look good.
I believe in this thread, and the thread we had not too long ago about this topic, I have always advocated collecting for the enjoyment of it, and not be concerned with the value of the cards. So you are incorrect in saying that I don't understand that aspect.
You are still sore about the guessing wrong on my estimates. Let it go. I put rough estimates up there to end the need to talk about it.
I will say this--if I'm on a debate team, I want baseball on my team...he is relentless, lol..
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Baseball touches on the real beating heart of the entire hobby of baseball card collecting...
To ALL COLLECTORS-- and I really want to stress the world collectors here, as opposed to dealers or flippers or whatever word one may choose-- cards are about much, much, more than ROI. In fact I hesitate to type "ROI" as I write this. It just doesn't feel right.
Is there money involved? Sure. Would we like our cards to sustain value or appreciate? Of course.
Can any one of us accurately predict if they will in 30 years? No.
Can we reasonably predict what prices will be in a year or two from any given day, meaning moderate gains or losses? Yes.
Is that prediction-- especially for high-end vintage (let's say cards costing $1000 and up)-- healthy? Yes, in a year or two I don't see a $1000 or $10,000 vintage card (PROVIDED IT IS ACCURATE TO SUPERIOR FOR ITS ASSIGNED GRADE) taking a nose dive.
And as long as one looks at value every year or two (and I'd venture most collectors look at value every day as we shop for cards, LOL), then rest assured there is no need to stress or debate what happens in 30 years. Just take it in six-month or one-year or two-year assessments, and eventually it will be 2043-- I promise. And I also promise that when one evaluates and decides to sell or not based on reasonable time periods of evaluation, the state of 2043 becomes totally moot...
Can cards be sold instantly via internet or ebay or auction house these days? Yes.
Is anyone forced to hold cards for 30+ years when there may or may not be the largest decline-- or aliens may or may not invade us, or a comet may or may not hit? No.
So it's really all rather good, fellas.
And let me say this: If I make it to 66 and am concerned with cards... I will be a very, very happy man-- whether my collection is worth 80K or 60K.
I understand all that about other options. If one wants to look deeper into the economic prospects and the factors that will really drag down the cards down the road, compared to other avenues, it may even get worse.
When the economy goes bad, people will still 'invest' in houses, cars, etc...because they need them. Collectibles will be an afterthought. You dismiss all that as gloom and doom. I sure hope you are right, because things do not look good.
I believe in this thread, and the thread we had not too long ago about this topic, I have always advocated collecting for the enjoyment of it, and not be concerned with the value of the cards. So you are incorrect in saying that I don't understand that aspect.
You are still sore about the guessing wrong on my estimates. Let it go. I put rough estimates up there to end the need to talk about it. >>
There appear to be some misguided and inaccurate parallels being presented here. In down markets or times of inflation, tangible goods out perform most other investment vehicles. Why has there been such a run on precious metals, art and other tangible collectibles? Real estate and stock market investments work in times of economic prosperity, but tend to be less attractive during recessions or economic downturns.
If a tangible item also supplies a buyer with a sense of recapturing some fraction of their youth or some other emotional attachment, so much the better.
If anyone here had the crystal ball to accurately foresee the future and was able to prognosticate with 100% accuracy, I seriously doubt they would either share such information or have much concern with regard to their future financial stability. Anything else is pure conjecture and is subject to dissection and criticism despite any party's claim to be certain of their viewpoint regardless of whether their viewpoints may or may not be devoid of factual evidence.
Half this thread has been written by Baseball and Objectively. They've been going back and fourth the last 4-5 pages. I stopped reading a while back though. I just to to see how much they write to each other. lol
I also see pro sports themselves taking a hit down the road. Too many people are losing jobs or are working jobs that can't maintain a lifestyle they(we) once had.
People will not be collecting cards when they hit hard times. Those are the first to go. Who would maintain a card collection while their family can't pay bills? Most people sell off in that case.
So, what do you think will happen to the PSA 8 Seavers, etc...from here on out? They go for around $1,000 right now. Will that price continue to shrink? Are only the 9's the ones with a fighting chance?
What about the sudden rise in wrestling cards? Is that a blip? Will that regress? Maintain?
How about the unopened?
Will typical 70's/80's that have crashed already continue their slide? Will they get to the point where they are unsellable(like some junk is already)?
Will adults who never collected cards in the past be interested in buying PSA 9 or 10 commons at a premium to try and build a 1973 Topps set in all 9 or 10?
What about mid grade 1954 Topps sets? Do you see those holding in value? Or will they decline because all the 'smart' money is going to pre war?
If I can buy a set run from Topps right now, is it smarter to just bank the money, and then just enjoy those cards by looking at them on the internet?
If you aren't interested in speculating on that, you would not have looked at this thread or taken so much time to debate it. So you have to have some thoughts on that.
We should instead focus on starting a new breed of show like the one described in the thread I just started. I need to see some awesome cards.
Going to look at that 1914 CJ Cobb that was posted earlier in another thread now. Then stare at my wall display for a few minutes, wondering what will be moved to make room for Mr. Cobb when I find the right one...
<< <i>Half this thread has been written by Baseball and Objectively. They've been going back and fourth the last 4-5 pages. I stopped reading a while back though. I just to to see how much they write to each other. lol >>
I suspect baseball and objectivity are the same person with multiple personalities.
Actually Matty, I really love your idea (minus the invitation because I think EVERYONE should be invited and not be some exclusive club and leave out anyone) and I think you should should start something over there in Cali. You have amazing cards and you seem really determined although maybe you might be afraid of failing if it doesn't take off. Only one way know
It's true, you never know-- it could wind up being an awesome thing and deliver a great show experience. I think sure, if anyone wants to attend and bring their kids, by all means, but if the core of it was a guest list of invitees, that would ensure the best experience for all. It's something to riff on for sure. WOuld love to find the time to at least kick the tires on the idea, and see how it would work. Finding a venue and reaching out to top collections and hobby dealers, AHs, wouldn't be a problem to start I guess.
<< <i>Half this thread has been written by Baseball and Objectively. They've been going back and fourth the last 4-5 pages. I stopped reading a while back though. I just to to see how much they write to each other. lol >>
I suspect baseball and objectivity are the same person with multiple personalities. >>
You got me. Although "he" would never admit as much. >>
There is nobody better to argue with than with oneself.
What gets me happiness is finding a Cracker Jack Cobb from 1914 in an eye appealing 2 or 3 holder! CW needs to sell me his!
Too funny! Ah-HA! Now I see your ulterior motive for the invite-only sportscard gathering. Get poor, unsuspecting CW out to Cali with his CJ Cobby, get him to pass out from some baseball-related drinking game, then swipe the Cobb when he's not looking!
CW, you got me dead to rights-- though the booze and women and offer I intended to make in that proverbial smoke-filled room would not be unappetizing at all, trust me
Seriously tho I am a huge fan of that CJ Cobb of yours. Finding cards in that grade that look that nice is to me the greatest thing. Saves so much loot and to me is thus such a tremendous value in a collection. Some may hate on guys showing scans but I will happily look at that one all day.
Comments
it's pretty obvious that they no longer comprise the larger cross-section of the card collecting world, since there are so many other distractions available to them.
the future of collecting does fall into the hands of more mature people with diversified personal interests and those people won't go away as long as they have their sports.
sharing it with newer generations doesn't guarantee the health of the card world, nor should it, but it makes for good relationships.
then, those kids fall into place as another generation of adult collectors. they learn about their sports and its participants, then make a choice.
it's just transition. the numbers may change drastically, but the core will remain intact. even if there's only a few of us left before the next Armageddon, at least we'll have a hobby which doesn't require electricity to play.
<< <i>
<< <i>What cards exactly have gone up in value since the late 90's/early2000's?
>>
I have around a thousand or more cards in my collection. Almost every single one has gone up since the late 1990s to early 2000s. I only collect Pre-WWII and a couple years later though. I love the history of the hobby and baseball. I collected in the late 60s and a lot of my hobby friends did too. The vintage market has come down in some more common lower end niches but overall, the rare stuff is still up. Many of the folks in Pre-War couldn't afford the best cards and now, a bit later in life, can and do. I thoroughly enjoy collecting so at worst case I love playing with, and studying, the cards. Happy collecting. (I agree the new stuff hasn't done too well, it seems more like gambling than collecting) >>
Pre War has done well, and will be the last to see any drop in price, partly because they truly do have rarity...and also partly because the players from those times are seen as something 'other than human'.
Problem is, 30 years from now, when that army of collectors to draw from has dwindled, there won't be as many people to save the cards from falling in price.
When the people who buy PSA 8 Ryan rookies graduate to rare Pre War...there won't be enough people to purchase the PSA 8 Ryans, and they will fall(like they have already).
Even cards from Pre War aren't keeping up with inflation...like the Goudey Ruth's. Only the best of the best are still doing ok, and all the collectors are still here. What happens when the collecting pool drops?
I'm not talking about the army of collectors coming back right now(somebody else said that is what is a good sign that those guys are returning). I'm talking about the one that is not going to be there 30 years from now...compared to the one that was there and still going.
There is no question that people will collect cards if they never did as a kid, and that happens already. However, in conjunction with that there is also a good number of people who only collect as an adult because that is what they were reared on doing.
You are losing people from that second group because they aren't being 'taught' or being introduced to it as a 'way of life' like we were. That will hurt down the road.
I deal with large amounts of young people all the time...so I know what they are doing. I also knew what young people were doing back in the day. So yes, I do have comparisons to draw from.
Baseball, you can substitute a Bench rookie, carew rook, Yaz rookie...all of those are in the same boat as Ryan or Seaver rookies. Same for the Goudey Ruth's.
You can't just dismiss inflation. Your $1,200 Ruth today isn't worth as much today, as your $1,200 ruth was in 2000. That is reality.
Investing is a big portion of the discussion.
Only the best of the best(mostly pre war) has risen in price AND beat inflation.
Basically you are agreeing with me if you are saying "only the high grade vintage will hold its prices," because that only represents about 5% of the card market...the rest is dying already. They just sit there with buy it nows from people hoping to get prices from 10 years ago.
Jake: Hit it.
While such baseball players as Mantle, Koufax and Clemente have been bluechips in the "vintage" arena, there has always been a little flux in the value of the midgrade, or common material. But when you look at the higher end, well centered and problem free examples, you see that quality reaps the greatest return in either an up or down market.
I hear the woes of those that sit on "common" vintage material. The thought that vintage is golden is only true in a strong market. In a soft market, the plethora of similar midgrade material suffers as buyers become more concerned with where and upon what they spend their discretionary income.
The modern market is probably the most volatile. From player performance, PED worries or accusations, increased populations and artificially created scarcity (serial numbered cards and temporarily low pops), there is a plethora of landmines that the collector must navigate and attempting to liquidate become as much luck of the draw as being able to strike when the iron is hot.
Prewar is a totally different animal altogether and considering the thinness of the market and the limited interest from a vast majority of the hobby, it really doesn't apply to the current discussion.
I still think that there are several areas of the hobby that have yet to reach their full potential and, while I'm not as versed in them as I would like to be, I've found many opportunities to add items to my collection that I think have very significant upside. I will continue to explore these areas and I hope to increase my understanding so as to allow me to better position myself and my collecting catalog for future gain as well as enjoyability.
These are strictly my opinions and YMMV...
Inflation is a big factor when worth or value comes into question. That is reality. Those becnh, yaz rc's etc aren't worth as much as they were ten years ago. And next year when they are still sitting on Ebay unsold for the same price, they will be worth less than now because inflation will eat away at it more. That will continue every year unless more buyers come into buying them(which aren't coming).
It isn't just the lack of kids that hurt. Collectors are branching big money into other things too. Comics get a lot of coin now, especially since all the Super Hero movies and shows like The Walking Dead. I'm not advocating comics as an investment, the boat has sailed on those probably already anyway, but they will continue to draw money away from other markets. .
Many Sophisticated collectors with money prefer Revolutionary War or Civil War documents, signed letters, Antique guns and swords, etc... Shows like Pawn Stars and American Pickers highlight items such as these, and there are a lot of people with big money who appreciate these rarities and see more investment potential than baseball cards that are relatively common and often seen as a dying breed.
People now, because of how much TV show and internet exposure, see all different collectible options that they probably would not have known existed 30 years ago. Back in the day, I didn't know about WWII posters issued by the U.S for bond buying...and I buy some of those cool ones once in a while instead of that Seaver RC that can be had any day of the week.
These are collectible competitors that weren't as popular back in the day, but are gaining(or have not yet gained
You brought up Art collectors previously. Those people view cards as toys and don't really give much thought to them. No, they didn't collect art as a kid, but all kids were introduced to fine art, and people who view themselves as a higher class prefer to put their money into rare art because they believe it cements their high class standing. Cards don't do that. They are viewed as a things KIDS collect.
You brought up vintage cars. How can a kid collect a vintage car? But they all drive them eventually, and guys like fast things. That is a natural extension,)
we should all hinge our collecting futures on the opinions and actions of people who appear on contrived and pre-meditated TV shows.
How long are those PSA 8 Seavers going to sit on Ebay? If you are so confident in them, you should buy the ones that are up there now.
<< <i>The shows may be contrived...but the items are not.
How long are those PSA 8 Seavers going to sit on Ebay? If you are so confident in them, you should buy the ones that are up there now. >>
i'm shocked that you honestly believe that the unsold product on eBay is a measure of the market.
it's nothing more than a tiny percentage of what actually happens. the only reason it seems to be such a strong representation is because it's visible.
why would i want to buy stuff that is grossly overpriced and perhaps overgraded, when i have already achieved success at pursuing the same product for cheaper? hmmm?
If those Seavers are overpriced, then what happened? They use to sell for that price. I thought cards were supposed to hold and go up in value?
It isn't just the lack of kids that hurt. Collectors are branching big money into other things too. Comics get a lot of coin now, especially since all the Super Hero movies and shows like The Walking Dead. I'm not advocating comics as an investment, the boat has sailed on those probably already anyway, but they will continue to draw money away from other markets. .
Many Sophisticated collectors with money prefer Revolutionary War or Civil War documents, signed letters, Antique guns and swords, etc... the advent of cable shows and the internet highlight items such as these and show that they do exist and are available...and there are a lot of people with big money who appreciate these rarities and national treasures from the days our country was founded, and see more investment potential than baseball cards that are very common and often seen as a dying breed.
People now, because of how much TV show and internet exposure, see all different collectible options that they probably would not have known existed 30 years ago. Back in the day, I didn't know about WWII posters issued by the U.S for bond buying...and I buy some of those cool ones once in a while instead of that Seaver RC that can be had any day of the week.
These are collectible competitors that weren't as popular back in the day, but are gaining(or have not yet gained
You brought up Art collectors previously. Those people view cards as toys and don't really give much thought to them. No, they didn't collect art as a kid, but all kids were introduced to fine art, and people who view themselves as a higher class prefer to put their money into rare art because they believe it cements their high class standing. Cards don't do that. They are viewed as a things KIDS collect.
You brought up vintage cars. How can a kid collect a vintage car? But they all drive them eventually, and guys like fast things. That is a natural extension,)
when you're ready to stop generalizing, maybe it will make a little more sense.
take eBay out of the equation. it's no longer the barometer it once was.
For the sanity of some of those involved-- just...walk...away.
On one hand it's been stated here that it's imperative for kids to get into cards now, because they won't when they get older...
Then it's stated that cards will decline in part because adults will get into collectibles totally new to them, such WWII items and those featured on Pawn Stars and Storage Wars.
FWIW, I saw an episode of Pawn Stars last night with cards and a Gretzky contract in it-- that sports item made the biggest profit of the episode. I also saw a Storage Wars episode that featured a bunch of cards that the characters on the show were happy to find.
I also saw some Bob's Big Boy toys and Barbies that were worth some money-- but oddly I don't feel compelled to collect them.
So what does this all mean for the health of baseball cards in 30 years?
I don't know. No one does. Especially in a debate where an agreed-upon DEFINITION of "baseball cards" in the above sentence is not in place.
Wil a case of 91 Fleer be worth less in 30 years. I think so, if that's even possible.
In 30 years, will you take a bath on that PSA 4 52T Mantle with great centering that you really want to buy this year? I don't think so AT ALL. But do you care if it drops in value in 30 years?
There are just so many terms undefined in this discussion. When we say high grade vintage is only 5% of the market, what does this mean? Some are talking market volume, some market value. It's such a messy discussion.
The below statement that I quote has so much personal opinion based on personal assumptions-- and because we are all entitled to our opinions, we can all have this debate about a crazy time period from now with our own definitions of the subject cards til we're blue in the face:
1. Many Sophisticated collectors with money prefer Revolutionary War or Civil War documents, signed letters, Antique guns and swords, etc...
Really? Define "sophisticated collector." I know many by my notion of such who do not prefer such documents over cards or art or cars or sports items.
2. Shows like Pawn Stars and American Pickers highlight items such as these, and there are a lot of people with big money who appreciate these rarities and see more investment potential than baseball cards that are relatively common and often seen as a dying breed.
Those shows also highlight cards. There have always been options to cards. Just because an option is seen on a reality show does not necessarily mean it will cause a decrease in all other options, including cards. If cards were highlighted in one episode, does that really mean the high end furniture collectors of the world will suddenly run and put more money now into cards than furniture, and thus furniture prices will collapse? The logic here is flawed/specious.
3. You brought up Art collectors previously. Those people view cards as toys and don't really give much thought to them.
Now this whole debate is unraveling and becoming too sprawling to remain tenable. Are we all saying we need collectors from one arena to enter cards for cards to maintain value? I know people who have Picassos and sports items. What does this mean? Also, to insinuate that someone who owns a Picasso looks down on a 52 Mantle or 55 Koufax or M101 Ruth is flat out wild assumption that cannot be measured or verified. I know a few men personally who are worth 9 digits who adore sports items including cards AND other collectibles including fine art as well. Once such bold opinions that are not at all based on fact enter a debate, it's hard to keep the conversation going.
4. ...they didn't collect art as a kid, but all kids were introduced to fine art, and people who view themselves as a higher class prefer to put their money into rare art because they believe it cements their high class standing. Cards don't do that. They are viewed as a things KIDS collect.
Says who? Kids were introduced to fine art but not sports? Huh? And this view of the upper income class and their psychology is profoundly reductive and presumptuous.
5. You brought up vintage cars. How can a kid collect a vintage car? But they all drive them eventually, and guys like fast things. That is a natural extension,)
Guys don't like sports or learning about sports legends?
--------------------------
I agree with Objectivity that it's great for the hobby LONG, LONG TERM (30+) years to get kids today into it, to share our enthusiasm. But this whole debate about what cards will gain or lose value in 30 years is an exercise in futility, to me at least.
I like well centered examples of key HOF sportscards from PreWar to the 80s. Some are high grade, some lower, depends on the eye appeal of the example that I come across. I can't afford $15,000+ cards at this moment, maybe in the future, but if anyone has such examples and wants to bail out now because of what might happen in 30 years, PM me and I'll happily take them off your hands. I'm not diverting my funds from cards to start to collect the random stuff glimpsed on an episode of Pawn Stars.
I'm truly not concerned right now with what happens to my cards in 2043. Around 2035, I might begin to think about the 2043 value of my cards. Right now my decision to hold or sell my cards is based on what I see them valued at in a year or two-- because they can be sold very quickly if need be.
Cards were probably the most actively collected item, and there was a major boom. Point is, that will be gone(and it isn't gone yet). The prices will fall. My timeline on the fall is 30 years from now.
Do you want a percent to clarify? Some rough estimates 30 years from now, High end pre war loses 10% overall. 50's-60's loses 20%, 70's-80's loses 50%. Obviously within each of those, some will lose less and some will lose more.
Now you can get off that point on guessing incorrectly on what I am saying.
You keep saying inflation doesn't matter, but it does. That has a direct impact on the value of something. Just because you keep saying it doesn't matter doesn't change it.
Those other collectibles do draw away money from cards, and a lot of potential collectors didn't know they were available. More and more people are introduced to other avenues to put their collectible dollars into. A lot of people with money view cards as something that kids collect. Well at least kids used to collect them
Kids may not know famous artists(though you may be surprised). I'm probably sure kids can name more artists than they can pre war baseball players. However, that is not the main point on that. The main point is that people who do dabble in expensive art view cards as a kids hobby, and don't bother putting their money there. That negates your point about people who are adults and never collected before will all of a sudden start pouring money into baseball cards like they do in fine art. Not gonna happen. Fine art can actually be rare. PSA 9's are man made rarity and are not rare.
If your argument is banking on the modest money, then you are in trouble, because those baseball cards will be the hardest hit. Heck, they are hit hard already.
30 years from now, people with modest money will have more pressing needs than ANY collectibles anyway.
----------------------
This is such terribly flawed, reductive, specious reasoning. To the discriminating buyer, every card is like a person-- to be treated and judged as an individual. Not all PSA 8 Seavers are the same. We'd have to see the card AND the price being asked to speak accurately. I will bet big money that if the card is right or strong for the grade it would sell for a healthy price.
Is it a BIN? How do we know good offers haven't been made and turned down?
If it's an overgraded or ugly 8, and it's not selling, we're supposed to take this as evidence of a declining market?
I saw a Dean's Cards 1953 Mantle in 4.5 that was beautiful. They were asking too much for me, based on past sales. I made many good offers, all declined. My offers would be highs for VCP. The card remains unsold. Does the fact that it sits on an ebay store shelf not moving mean there is something wrong withe card market?
The thesis of this thread needs many of its terms solidly defined for all of us to make the discussion tenable. What time frame? What cards? Until all these are agreed upon, it's hard to even engage.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
I know people personally who prove this statement wrong.
Do you want a percent to clarify? Some rough estimates 30 years from now, High end pre war loses 10% overall. 50's-60's loses 20%."
Objectivity,
All I can say is I hope you are right!
So many of the cards I lust after would fall into achievable range if this happens-- at 66 I hope I'll be healthy and solvent enough to get and enjoy them!
And if those numbers qualify as a downward spiral, then this hobby is much healthier than many other places one can park their money
<< <i>"If those Seavers are overpriced, then what happened? They use to sell for that price. I thought cards were supposed to hold and go up in value?"
----------------------
This is such terribly flawed, reductive, specious reasoning. To the discriminating buyer, every card is like a person-- to be treated and judged as an individual. Not all PSA 8 Seavers are the same. We'd have to see the card AND the price being asked to speak accurately. I will bet big money that if the card is right or strong for the grade it would sell for a healthy price.
Is it a BIN? How do we know good offers haven't been made and turned down?
If it's an overgraded or ugly 8, and it's not selling, we're supposed to take this as evidence of a declining market?
I saw a Dean's Cards 1953 Mantle in 4.5 that was beautiful. They were asking too much for me, based on past sales. I made many good offers, all declined. My offers would be highs for VCP. The card remains unsold. Does the fact that it sits on an ebay store shelf not moving mean there is something wrong withe card market?
The thesis of this thread needs many of its terms solidly defined for all of us to make the discussion tenable. What time frame? What cards? Until all these are agreed upon, it's hard to even engage. >>
MattyC, there are enough examples of the Seaver RC and all other cards of similar ilk that have just been stagnating since 2000. With inflation, those have already lost value.
This is during a time where we are still sort of in a boom(the boom being Pre War, & high grade vintage). The rest already crashed.
You are right though, a lot of different tangents in this debate.
-high grade pre war
-rare pre war
-mid grade pre war
-low grade pre war
-40's-50's high grade
-40's-50's mid grade
etc...
Really, since the market crashed, only high grade pre war, rare pre war, and some mid grade pre war have made gains. And PSA 9's and 10's of some select post war cards. (Many of those actually went down too).
Everything else is either stagnating or has crashed already. Taking inflation into account, they have failed big time. Will it crash even more down the road??
Will the high grade stay, or will that go down eventually like all the other cards did?
PS and so Grote doesn't get fired up...unopened may have been the best performer.
The way Howard is going, Kingman may be generous
I guess it's all in the approach. I don't look at the totality of Seaver PSA 8s-- except to comb them for the strongest 8 I can find. One that can hang with a 9. When I find that card at a good price, then I get it. I hold it and get great enjoyment from looking at it and time traveling with it. Then if I am ever concerned with the sale of it, I am concerned only with the sale of that one strong example. Many times it bumps to an 8.5. If not, cool-- if ever the sale time comes it's about getting the card before the eyes of an equally discriminating buyer, who will recognize what's before him and pay accordingly, as did I.
If ever forced to sell by unfortunate circumstances, losing 10-20% is something I could live with-- I'd clearly have greater problems in life in that case than that percentage loss!
So much Sturm und Drang here and really it gets us all nowhere. What gets me happiness is finding a Cracker Jack Cobb from 1914 in an eye appealing 2 or 3 holder! CW needs to sell me his!
excitement compared to what we see today where there is a great amount of participation in set registry collecting and decent amount of ebay buying.
aconte
<< <i>Once again, your propensity for redundancy won't let you get off the inflation aspect. Plenty of stocks (if not most) have lost value adjusting for inflation. Same could be said of real estate or comic books or antique toys, or signs, etc. >>
That may be true. It still doesn't change the fact that the value of baseball cards has to be adjusted for inflation if you are debating whether or not they are losing or gaining value.
If it is redundant for me to say that, then so be it, it still doesn't change the reality of it just because you want to try and ignore this facet because it hurts your side of the debate..
Is it not redundant for you to say the inflation doesn't come into play, even though you are wrong with your assertion??? Hmmm. Don't call out redundant when you are doing it yourself
Hey, don't be upset if you guessed incorrectly on my estimates. If you want to blame it on lack of articulation on a message board, and that makes you feel better for assuming incorrectly, so be it.
MattyC, you have a good plan and an amicable attitude. I think your collecting plan is good. Aren't you the guy who was trying to get the Star Jordan's to be graded by PSA? Now that is an example of a good plan where you can create an increase in a cards value. Kind of like Dpeck did with his promoting and showing of wrestling cards, and kind of like the advance of media highlighting other collectibles to help them grow.
Baseball, your job can be to get the kids back into collecting so the cards can benefit with a stabilization of value down the road
The funny thing is, people think kids collecting cards have always driven the market but whenever I look in my old SCD"s or old hobby publications, you still see way more adults than kids in the old photos from card shows in the 70's and 80's.
I understand all that about other options. If one wants to look deeper into the economic prospects and the factors that will really drag down the cards down the road, compared to other avenues, it may even get worse.
When the economy goes bad, people will still 'invest' in houses, cars, etc...because they need them. Collectibles will be an afterthought. You dismiss all that as gloom and doom. I sure hope you are right, because things do not look good.
I believe in this thread, and the thread we had not too long ago about this topic, I have always advocated collecting for the enjoyment of it, and not be concerned with the value of the cards. So you are incorrect in saying that I don't understand that aspect.
You are still sore about the guessing wrong on my estimates. Let it go. I put rough estimates up there to end the need to talk about it.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
To ALL COLLECTORS-- and I really want to stress the world collectors here, as opposed to dealers or flippers or whatever word one may choose-- cards are about much, much, more than ROI. In fact I hesitate to type "ROI" as I write this. It just doesn't feel right.
Is there money involved? Sure. Would we like our cards to sustain value or appreciate? Of course.
Can any one of us accurately predict if they will in 30 years? No.
Can we reasonably predict what prices will be in a year or two from any given day, meaning moderate gains or losses? Yes.
Is that prediction-- especially for high-end vintage (let's say cards costing $1000 and up)-- healthy? Yes, in a year or two I don't see a $1000 or $10,000 vintage card (PROVIDED IT IS ACCURATE TO SUPERIOR FOR ITS ASSIGNED GRADE) taking a nose dive.
And as long as one looks at value every year or two (and I'd venture most collectors look at value every day as we shop for cards, LOL), then rest assured there is no need to stress or debate what happens in 30 years. Just take it in six-month or one-year or two-year assessments, and eventually it will be 2043-- I promise. And I also promise that when one evaluates and decides to sell or not based on reasonable time periods of evaluation, the state of 2043 becomes totally moot...
Can cards be sold instantly via internet or ebay or auction house these days? Yes.
Is anyone forced to hold cards for 30+ years when there may or may not be the largest decline-- or aliens may or may not invade us, or a comet may or may not hit? No.
So it's really all rather good, fellas.
And let me say this: If I make it to 66 and am concerned with cards... I will be a very, very happy man-- whether my collection is worth 80K or 60K.
<< <i>Baseball,
I understand all that about other options. If one wants to look deeper into the economic prospects and the factors that will really drag down the cards down the road, compared to other avenues, it may even get worse.
When the economy goes bad, people will still 'invest' in houses, cars, etc...because they need them. Collectibles will be an afterthought. You dismiss all that as gloom and doom. I sure hope you are right, because things do not look good.
I believe in this thread, and the thread we had not too long ago about this topic, I have always advocated collecting for the enjoyment of it, and not be concerned with the value of the cards. So you are incorrect in saying that I don't understand that aspect.
You are still sore about the guessing wrong on my estimates. Let it go. I put rough estimates up there to end the need to talk about it. >>
There appear to be some misguided and inaccurate parallels being presented here. In down markets or times of inflation, tangible goods out perform most other investment vehicles. Why has there been such a run on precious metals, art and other tangible collectibles? Real estate and stock market investments work in times of economic prosperity, but tend to be less attractive during recessions or economic downturns.
If a tangible item also supplies a buyer with a sense of recapturing some fraction of their youth or some other emotional attachment, so much the better.
If anyone here had the crystal ball to accurately foresee the future and was able to prognosticate with 100% accuracy, I seriously doubt they would either share such information or have much concern with regard to their future financial stability. Anything else is pure conjecture and is subject to dissection and criticism despite any party's claim to be certain of their viewpoint regardless of whether their viewpoints may or may not be devoid of factual evidence.
I also see pro sports themselves taking a hit down the road. Too many people are losing jobs or are working jobs that can't maintain a lifestyle they(we) once had.
People will not be collecting cards when they hit hard times. Those are the first to go. Who would maintain a card collection while their family can't pay bills? Most people sell off in that case.
So, what do you think will happen to the PSA 8 Seavers, etc...from here on out? They go for around $1,000 right now. Will that price continue to shrink? Are only the 9's the ones with a fighting chance?
What about the sudden rise in wrestling cards? Is that a blip? Will that regress? Maintain?
How about the unopened?
Will typical 70's/80's that have crashed already continue their slide? Will they get to the point where they are unsellable(like some junk is already)?
Will adults who never collected cards in the past be interested in buying PSA 9 or 10 commons at a premium to try and build a 1973 Topps set in all 9 or 10?
What about mid grade 1954 Topps sets? Do you see those holding in value? Or will they decline because all the 'smart' money is going to pre war?
If I can buy a set run from Topps right now, is it smarter to just bank the money, and then just enjoy those cards by looking at them on the internet?
If you aren't interested in speculating on that, you would not have looked at this thread or taken so much time to debate it. So you have to have some thoughts on that.
We should instead focus on starting a new breed of show like the one described in the thread I just started. I need to see some awesome cards.
Going to look at that 1914 CJ Cobb that was posted earlier in another thread now. Then stare at my wall display for a few minutes, wondering what will be moved to make room for Mr. Cobb when I find the right one...
<< <i>Half this thread has been written by Baseball and Objectively. They've been going back and fourth the last 4-5 pages. I stopped reading a while back though. I just to to see how much they write to each other. lol >>
I suspect baseball and objectivity are the same person with multiple personalities.
http://www.unisquare.com/store/brick/
Ralph
That would be awesome.
Foo,
It's true, you never know-- it could wind up being an awesome thing and deliver a great show experience. I think sure, if anyone wants to attend and bring their kids, by all means, but if the core of it was a guest list of invitees, that would ensure the best experience for all. It's something to riff on for sure. WOuld love to find the time to at least kick the tires on the idea, and see how it would work. Finding a venue and reaching out to top collections and hobby dealers, AHs, wouldn't be a problem to start I guess.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Half this thread has been written by Baseball and Objectively. They've been going back and fourth the last 4-5 pages. I stopped reading a while back though. I just to to see how much they write to each other. lol >>
I suspect baseball and objectivity are the same person with multiple personalities. >>
You got me. Although "he" would never admit as much. >>
There is nobody better to argue with than with oneself.
What gets me happiness is finding a Cracker Jack Cobb from 1914 in an eye appealing 2 or 3 holder! CW needs to sell me his!
Seriously tho I am a huge fan of that CJ Cobb of yours. Finding cards in that grade that look that nice is to me the greatest thing. Saves so much loot and to me is thus such a tremendous value in a collection. Some may hate on guys showing scans but I will happily look at that one all day.
Happy New Year, all, and lets hope 2013 can somehow be an upward spiral (both in life, and in the hobby).