Thoughts from my Europe Trip this week
Justacommeman
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I figured I'd do this bullet point style
I'm in Europe this week to do a little business and some fact finding and observing
1) Milan- lot's of folks are starting to produce goods in the EU rather then China. Albania, Turkey and Romania come to mind. Favorable shipping and tax consequences over China and India. The trade show itself I peeked in on was SLOW. the Jewish holiday may have had an impact. I'm sure it did. A lot of the "Haves" are considering moves to Switzerland for personal tax relief.
2) Barcelona- You wouldn't have known there is 25% unemployment by the looks of it. However, I did a flyby over the port and container ships (in and out) were noticeably absent.
3) Paris- I had a screw up with my hotel reservations. There was not a SINGLE hotel room to be had in Paris ( well there was one I found at 6000 euros a night). i would have stayed at the Le Park Bench over that choice. I made a new friend hanging out and it all worked out. Still, 100% occupancy in Paris in September. I bought breakfast being the gentleman I am. Again, lots of affluent French are considering moves to Switzerland to avoid increased French taxes on the affluent.
4) London- Just arrived. People tell me business is bad and getting worse. Some businesses are still recovering from the Olympics which sucked life out of them that didn't participate in the party. I hope I can get out of here Sunday morning to catch an event on the east coast.
5) While in Europe I had drinks with several heads of mid tier businesses that operate in the US. They said September Retail so far has been BRUTAL. These are the same guys who have been FLYING high the past two years as mid to low tier have been shinning stars. That may change soon. They couldn't wait to go home and revise their plans and cancel orders. The companies I'm speaking about are all 1 billion plus in size.
6) Europe continues to age rapidly. Some spots worse then other. It's a problem. London is the exception with the facelift and infrastructure improvements they received from the Summer games.
7) Not one person spoke of gold nor do they care. They did moan about the weak dollar. It's the last thing they need. No one predicted silver would not hit $30 in their lifetime. I doubt anyone here can tell you the price.
I'm heading to Japan next week and China from there. I will try to report back the good, bad and the ugly.
MJ
I'm in Europe this week to do a little business and some fact finding and observing
1) Milan- lot's of folks are starting to produce goods in the EU rather then China. Albania, Turkey and Romania come to mind. Favorable shipping and tax consequences over China and India. The trade show itself I peeked in on was SLOW. the Jewish holiday may have had an impact. I'm sure it did. A lot of the "Haves" are considering moves to Switzerland for personal tax relief.
2) Barcelona- You wouldn't have known there is 25% unemployment by the looks of it. However, I did a flyby over the port and container ships (in and out) were noticeably absent.
3) Paris- I had a screw up with my hotel reservations. There was not a SINGLE hotel room to be had in Paris ( well there was one I found at 6000 euros a night). i would have stayed at the Le Park Bench over that choice. I made a new friend hanging out and it all worked out. Still, 100% occupancy in Paris in September. I bought breakfast being the gentleman I am. Again, lots of affluent French are considering moves to Switzerland to avoid increased French taxes on the affluent.
4) London- Just arrived. People tell me business is bad and getting worse. Some businesses are still recovering from the Olympics which sucked life out of them that didn't participate in the party. I hope I can get out of here Sunday morning to catch an event on the east coast.
5) While in Europe I had drinks with several heads of mid tier businesses that operate in the US. They said September Retail so far has been BRUTAL. These are the same guys who have been FLYING high the past two years as mid to low tier have been shinning stars. That may change soon. They couldn't wait to go home and revise their plans and cancel orders. The companies I'm speaking about are all 1 billion plus in size.
6) Europe continues to age rapidly. Some spots worse then other. It's a problem. London is the exception with the facelift and infrastructure improvements they received from the Summer games.
7) Not one person spoke of gold nor do they care. They did moan about the weak dollar. It's the last thing they need. No one predicted silver would not hit $30 in their lifetime. I doubt anyone here can tell you the price.
I'm heading to Japan next week and China from there. I will try to report back the good, bad and the ugly.
MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
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These "man on the streets" type of reports are a welcomed new insight from the usual media accounts we are subject to.
Thanks and please keep them coming.
Your observations and insights are very interesting.
Best and travel safe.
I have similar feedbacks from my friends and family in Europe.
Let me add that September Retail hasn't been good in the US either. At least not as good as we expected.
MM
Looks like buying real estate in Switzerland might be be a smart investment ...
Groucho Marx
“We are only their care-takers,” he posed, “if we take good care of them, then centuries from now they may still be here … ”
Todd - BHNC #242
All sounds very inflationary.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Thank MJ. Great report.
All sounds very inflationary.
When you start thinking inflation possibilities, just take another look at Japan. They have basically followed our Fed Model, and 25 years latter its not "where's the beef? its where's the inflation?
Coinfame,Kaelasdad,Type2,UNLVino,MICHAELDIXON
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<< <i>Thanks for the report, MJ! Really appreciated.
I have similar feedbacks from my friends and family in Europe.
Let me add that September Retail hasn't been good in the US either. At least not as good as we expected.
MM >>
Yes. All the US Retailers including the fair haired ones I spoke to stated that since September 1 that their business seemed to seize up. Europe mirrors this as well.
London seems to have suffered a post Summer Games hangover. The Apple Store in Covent Garden was the exception. People were selling their spots on line for a 100 quid. God Bless Iphone 5.
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>had to get a jab in at me even being on another continent. what purpose does doing that really serve?
Where was the jab?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>Top notch report, MJ. I still remember your comment on Chinese pricing policies from many moons ago and how that proved to be spot on. >>
But AMZN and ROST certainly are.
Not an international report, but I'm my travels across country last month I saw the corn crop as relatively weak but soybeans appeared very healthy. Pricing for one doesn't match my observations.
Dow theorists may want to take a peak at the transportation index.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Let's make that world report a regular event. >>
I fully agree with DerryB, MJ!
Short of me experiencing the rush of Europe, you are a highly appreciated hands-on world wanderer!
What do you attribute to the lack of perceived Euro interest in gold?
Miles
<< <i>Let's make that world report a regular event. >>
+2 I appreciate the unfiltered view, I too wonder why there is lack of interest in metal over there.. they stacking something else or just lethargic in general?
Yes, outstanding idea; our own man on the street news. Thanks for taking the time to post 'em up MJ...excellent report.
<< <i>
<< <i>Let's make that world report a regular event. >>
+2 I appreciate the unfiltered view, I too wonder why there is lack of interest in metal over there.. they stacking something else or just lethargic in general? >>
It may be the VAT tax.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Count me among those wondering why the lack of interest in metals. I know that there is a 15% tax on silver. Do you sense much of an underground economy? >>
I would be very surprised if most silver wasn't bought and sold in the underground economy for cash---those 500 Euro notes make it easier. Tax evasion is a common and long standing tradition in Europe.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>
<< <i>Let's make that world report a regular event. >>
+2 I appreciate the unfiltered view, I too wonder why there is lack of interest in metal over there.. they stacking something else or just lethargic in general? >>
I really have never though much of it until I noticed the lack of "Cash for Gold" type of businesses in my Euro travels. In the US I see them everywhere. Maybe they are in the outskirts. At a few dinners I brought the subject up and it was "crickets" when it came to gold/silver/ platinum. My Dutch friends are metal freaks but I didn't visit Amsterdam/Rotterdam this trip. They are paper traders albeit one who is a quiet stacker. Please realize that my metal comment was based on my personal observations and it's a tiny tiny sampling.
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Let's make that world report a regular event. >>
+2 I appreciate the unfiltered view, I too wonder why there is lack of interest in metal over there.. they stacking something else or just lethargic in general? >>
I really have never though much of it until I noticed the lack of "Cash for Gold" type of businesses in my Euro travels. In the US I see them everywhere. Maybe they are in the outskirts. At a few dinners I brought the subject up and it was "crickets" when it came to gold/silver/ platinum. My Dutch friends are metal freaks but I didn't visit Amsterdam/Rotterdam this trip. They are paper traders albeit one who is a quiet stacker. Please realize that my metal comment was based on my personal observations and it's a tiny tiny sampling.
MJ >>
It got me thinking as i'd spent almost my entire life in Europe and i'd have to agree that people in my experience too don't stack or trade metals or if they do they do a grand job of keeping quiet about it.I think they get their metal "fix" via jewelry.Pay close attention to the younger adults and up and you'll see what i mean.The gaudier and chunkier the better seems to be the style , sovereign rings for example.
I arrived in the US some 5 years ago and it had not occured to me to invest in metals before , this would be when silver was 14/oz and gold 800/oz , i guess my timing was fortunate to the extreme in my view as for someone who had never invested in metals before it was quite a rocket ride.I tried to tell my friends in the UK what was happening with metals and i screamed silver at them til i was tired repeating myself,i think they thought i'd lost my mind.
I made a new friend hanging out and it all worked out.
Hmmmmmmmmmmmm............
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>/
+2 I appreciate the unfiltered view, I too wonder why there is lack of interest in metal over there.. they stacking something else or just lethargic in general? >>
I really have never though much of it until I noticed the lack of "Cash for Gold" type of businesses in my Euro travels. In the US I see them everywhere. Maybe they are in the outskirts. At a few dinners I brought the subject up and it was "crickets" when it came to gold/silver/ platinum. My Dutch friends are metal freaks but I didn't visit Amsterdam/Rotterdam this trip. They are paper traders albeit one who is a quiet stacker. Please realize that my metal comment was based on my personal observations and it's a tiny tiny sampling.
MJ >>
Thanks for the excellent report from Europe!! I'm in Chicago and the retailers here are hurting. Also, when "cash for gold" stores opened, the intermediate top was put in place.
They've all shut doors over the past 6-12 months just before the recent run up. I haven't seen the "cash for gold" shops reopening, so I'm thinking gold and silver have a ways to run.
Bernake's printing machine should put a bottom under the PM market, imho.
Thanks again for your report!!
Which is it......common sense - or head in sand? I wish I had the answer.
I was in Guangzhou, China last weekend when the protests hit our layover hotel, The Garden, because the Japanese Consulate is located there. The Lobby of this beautiful hotel was trashed. Later I was down in Beijing Lu doing some shopping when a band of anti-Japanese 'protestors' roamed the street with their ChiComm flags and Mao banners with full state police protection. Later I read "If Mao was here we would already be at war." They were lamenting about Mao!? I see turmoil, but then I see an entire community leveled because a third runway is planned in front of our sort hub in Guangzhou airport. The leather district was abuzz filled with tourists and buyers from Africa and Europe. I bought one bag for the Misses. When I asked for the price I got "68RMB's...how many you buy?" When I said one they took the bag out of my hand. I eventually won over an old lady for 100RMB's...$16. The Misses was extremely happy and said it looked like a Fossil bag that would run $200.
Confusion: In the US I see restaurants and theaters full yet there's 8% unemployment...12%+ real unemployment. In China I see the malls full with young ladies buying high end fashion. I see ultra modern free-form buildings erected without regard to occupancy. We fly into five major cities in China so my view is skewed. For me seeing may not be believing.
edt4sp
keep it coming.
Maybe because 92 out of 100 people are working?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Just...I will be in Japan and China next week also with a tail end Germany kicker.
I was in Guangzhou, China last weekend when the protests hit our layover hotel, The Garden, because the Japanese Consulate is located there. The Lobby of this beautiful hotel was trashed. Later I was down in Beijing Lu doing some shopping when a band of anti-Japanese 'protestors' roamed the street with their ChiComm flags and Mao banners with full state police protection. Later I read "If Mao was here we would already be at war." They were lamenting about Mao!? I see turmoil, but then I see an entire community leveled because a third runway is planned in front of our sort hub in Guangzhou airport. The leather district was abuzz filled with tourists and buyers from Africa and Europe. I bought one bag for the Misses. When I asked for the price I got "68RMB's...how many you buy?" When I said one they took the bag out of my hand. I eventually won over an old lady for 100RMB's...$16. The Misses was extremely happy and said it looked like a Fossil bag that would run $200.
Confusion: In the US I see restaurants and theaters full yet there's 8% unemployment...12%+ real unemployment. In China I see the malls full with young ladies buying high end fashion. I see ultra modern free-form buildings erected without regard to occupancy. We fly into five major cities in China so my view is skewed. For me seeing may not be believing.
edt4sp >>
Right down the street from that hotel is Paddy Fields. A great Irish Pub. Right next to that is Chicken Express in which I have an interest in. I will hook you up on a discount
I guess you shopped at the Friendship Shop (mall) right next to your hotel. It's pretty amazing and that's were I do a lot of my food shopping. That and Korner's Deli. I think when they named this westerner catered to market the name got lost in translation. It happens a lot there
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i> In the US I see restaurants and theaters full yet there's 8% unemployment...
Maybe because 92 out of 100 people are working? >>
Even the U6 tags this closer with 84 out of 100 "potential" workers working.
<< <i>Great report MJ! Looking forward the next one down the road.
<< <i> In the US I see restaurants and theaters full yet there's 8% unemployment...
Maybe because 92 out of 100 people are working? >>
Even the U6 tags this closer with 84 out of 100 "potential" workers working.
I tend not to look at the published numbers. Those that have dropped out of the job pool or are under employed is the bigger story IMO. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i> In the US I see restaurants and theaters full yet there's 8% unemployment...
Maybe because 92 out of 100 people are working? >>
Maybe.
The work force has dropped from 64 to 62% over the past few years so the "62%" working is that 92%, right(?)
The U6 number is somewhere around 12-15%. The GD was near 20% for most of the 1930's. We see the old black and white pictures of soup lines or the Nipomo, CA lady with her children and think it was like that for all when 80%+ were still working. Was that propaganda? Was it really all that bad? I guess it's perspective. I could go down to where the Colorado River and Gunnison River meet and take black and white photos of the homeless camps and send it to the Denver Post with the caption "Barryville-Community Lost." Then let historians in 2085 analyze what prolonged the Great Recession of 2008-2016 with photographic evidence.
Believe it or not an 8% unemployment rate is a much more productive economy than at 4%.
Fact is, 8 out of every 100 people are unhireable anyway. Think about it. You want that last remaining 8 working for you?
The workforce % is going to continue to drop for the next decade as a massive block of population crosses into their 60's. It is not an indicator of a poor economy, but a rather an indicator of an aging population bracket.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>The workforce % is going to continue to drop for the next decade as a massive block of population crosses into their 60's. It is not an indicator of a poor economy, but a rather an indicator of an aging population bracket. >>
The very fact that jobs being vacated by retirees are not being filled by younger workers is a sure sign of a poor economy. An opening not filled is a job lost. Lost jobs help create unemployment.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Dont be a dinosaur.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Jobs disappear all the time. Anybody make carburetors any more? How many farriers are there today?
Dont be a dinosaur. >>
In a healthy economy outdated jobs are replaced with jobs involving newer technology and in the same country.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
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<< <i>
<< <i>Jobs disappear all the time. Anybody make carburetors any more? How many farriers are there today?
Dont be a dinosaur. >>
In a healthy economy outdated jobs are replaced with jobs involving newer technology and in the same country. >>
Like we dont have that? I know Florida is one of the more depressed states, but you really need to look around. Take a drive to North Dakota or Northern Pennsylvania. Or Silicon Valley or western Philadelphia suburbs. Lots of innovation and high paying jobs.
Its really only union jobs that are lacking. And thats a good thing. Now maybe we can bring jobs back to this country.
Just for giggles, how about if each of us that contributes to this board counts all the Help Wanted ads in their local Sunday paper. What will be the under/over? 100k, 300k, 500k?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Jobs disappear all the time. Anybody make carburetors any more? How many farriers are there today?
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I knew it would happen.
More true than you might have thought. I'm one of those geezers that is leaving my position and I have been interviewing people to take my job after I check out. I've received about 10 resumes (I use that term with a smirk). Of the 10 that I received, 1 (yes ONE) complied with the job announcement of what was required such as samples of their autocadd drawings, public sector experience, degree from an accredited university program in my discipline...simple, basic professional credential stuff. I interviewed 3 candidates and I made no offers. Only one is remotely qualified and her qualifications are well short of what she will need to even have a fighting chance of surviving in this position.
I've heard that us seasoned veterans should start vacating and taking the SS so the younger folk can step in but I'm not seeing any younger folk that will do my job and none that are qualified and want to apply. You see, over the last 5 years, my coworker group has been cut around 40% so those of us that chose to remain get to pick up the slack that others used to do...for the same money, no COLA and no increase in salary. I wouldn't be looking for the calvary to come riding over the hill to fill the shoes of us "older workers" and lead us to economic prosperity...it ain't happenin' and I'm out of here 10/31 and life is good because I've got another run in me.
Hammer-ON