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What's happening with the 25th anniversary sets? Is this a good deal or should I wait for the price
PerryHall
Posts: 46,822 ✭✭✭✭✭
Have the opened raw sets bottomed out yet pricewise? I bought 10 sets and sold them for a good profit in the unopened boxes. I have a chance to buy a nice opened, unslabbed set in the original government packaging for $700. Good deal? Anyone know what dealers are currently paying these days for raw unopened set?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
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I would expect these to level off at $800 - $900 over the long term and am quite surprised that they aren't currently at the $1000 level right now.
I mean, the 20th Anniversary Sets are still in the $300 range with more than twice the mintage? It just doesn't make any sense.
It appears as if the bad publicity over how they were originally offered has really tainted this set but once folks come to their senses, perhaps the overall prices will increase.
The name is LEE!
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
The mint is issuing too much junk these days to make most things unique or special over the long term.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>My concern is that they may eventually develop milk spots. Is this a problem with raw ASE's or is this mostly just a problem with the slabbed ASE's? >>
Spotted coins have been found in tubes from the mint so the problem isn't restricted to slabbed coins only. I imagine that those who buy tubes of ASEs don't make it a regular habit to get them out and look at every coin.
A new thread for this old issue ?
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Recipient of the coveted "You Suck" award, April 2009 for cherrypicking a 1833 CBHD LM-5, and April 2022 for a 1835 LM-12, and again in Aug 2012 for picking off a 1952 FS-902.
<< <i>
A new thread for this old issue ? >>
A friend and fellow coin club member had a few sets that he opened and he just offered to sell me a set yesterday. These sets may have been around for awhile but I haven't kept up with their prices.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
a fellow dealer would pay him 3750, second dealer was going to submit
them. everyone's happy
<< <i>sold a box of 5 at the show yesterday for 3650, he in turn said
a fellow dealer would pay him 3750, second dealer was going to submit
them. everyone's happy
Was the box of 5 opened or still sealed? Not sure if it still makes a difference or not at this late date.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>Has it ever been proven or not that a rinse in acetone lessens the odds of milk spots showing up?
Dunno. Some say acetone, others advise EZest. IMO there are two different kinds of spots, one a greenish tan/not white and the other white. The white ones are due to chlorine and aren't removable, YET, anyways. The non-white spots may well be removable with acetone. There is a reason that PCGS can apparently fix/conserve some and not others.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
dealer had a set at the time.
<< <i>
<< <i>sold a box of 5 at the show yesterday for 3650, he in turn said
a fellow dealer would pay him 3750, second dealer was going to submit
them. everyone's happy
Was the box of 5 opened or still sealed? Not sure if it still makes a difference or not at this late date. >>
Is the box opened or sealed?
Why is this even a subject for debate? Buying a sealed box is like playing roulette. You could open it up and find out that you have “milk spot city.” I don’t know of any instances where silver eagle boxes have been opened the coins removed and replaced with something of equal weight and then resealed. That has happened with “sealed” Proof sets from the 1950s, and there is probably some sharpie out there who might try it again on these sets. Never underestimate the resourcefulness of a crook.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>sold a box of 5 at the show yesterday for 3650, he in turn said
a fellow dealer would pay him 3750, second dealer was going to submit
them. everyone's happy
Was the box of 5 opened or still sealed? Not sure if it still makes a difference or not at this late date. >>
Is the box opened or sealed?
Why is this even a subject for debate? Buying a sealed box is like playing roulette. You could open it up and find out that you have “milk spot city.” I don’t know of any instances where silver eagle boxes have been opened the coins removed and replaced with something of equal weight and then resealed. That has happened with “sealed” Proof sets from the 1950s, and there is probably some sharpie out there who might try it again on these sets. Never underestimate the resourcefulness of a crook. >>
If you buy a sealed box off of eBay [with the knowledge that the seller is not responsible for the contents] and the coins are spotted just file SNAD and eBay/PP will get your money back and the seller will be SOL. Of course submitting a sealed box is the only way to get that coveted First Strike designation.
100k may seem like a lot, but it really isn't.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>sold a box of 5 at the show yesterday for 3650, he in turn said
a fellow dealer would pay him 3750, second dealer was going to submit
them. everyone's happy
Was the box of 5 opened or still sealed? Not sure if it still makes a difference or not at this late date. >>
Is the box opened or sealed?
Why is this even a subject for debate? Buying a sealed box is like playing roulette. You could open it up and find out that you have “milk spot city.” I don’t know of any instances where silver eagle boxes have been opened the coins removed and replaced with something of equal weight and then resealed. That has happened with “sealed” Proof sets from the 1950s, and there is probably some sharpie out there who might try it again on these sets. Never underestimate the resourcefulness of a crook. >>
Unless things have changed, the marketplace values unopened sets higher that opened sets that may have been picked over with the perfect 70 coins removedd and replaced with less than perfect 68 or 69 coins from other sets.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>If you buy a sealed box off of eBay [with the knowledge that the seller is not responsible for the contents] and the coins are spotted just file SNAD and eBay/PP will get your money back and the seller will be SOL. Of course submitting a sealed box is the only way to get that coveted First Strike designation. >>
Good point. Even if the coins in the sealed set were perfect, the buyer could substitute spotted coins from another set and still demand a refund claiming they were SNAD.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>
<< <i>If you buy a sealed box off of eBay [with the knowledge that the seller is not responsible for the contents] and the coins are spotted just file SNAD and eBay/PP will get your money back and the seller will be SOL. Of course submitting a sealed box is the only way to get that coveted First Strike designation. >>
Good point. Even if the coins in the sealed set were perfect, the buyer could substitute spotted coins from another set and still demand a refund claiming they were SNAD. >>
Hmmmm....never thought of that. That was my feeling about the open sets for sale but I never pushed it to unopened sets also....
this other fella had 4 gold $2.50's i liked, better looking than a brown box i might add,
these sets i believe will be 1000+ down the road, good for the buyers now. no
remorse from me. kudos.
Not exactly the same but ATBs have really tanked, with no interest it seems now...
I just see so much rah rah going on, and even though I love these later mint issues I really don't think there is the collector base that people seem to think there is....Flipper base maybe though.
Well, just Love coins, period.
especially with the rev. proof. plus the 11 s.
Off ebay? I'd go $550 at the most. Opened sets means the two coins unique to the set qualify for 25th Anny designation if submitted and that's another chunk - o - change to spend. You might hit a home run with an MS70 RP + S, but get a 69 and you are toast and losing $$$. The other three coins won't get a 25th Anny designation.
<< <i>[q I have a chance to buy a nice opened, unslabbed set in the original government packaging for $700. Good deal? >>
Off ebay? I'd go $550 at the most. Opened sets means the two coins unique to the set qualify for 25th Anny designation if submitted and that's another chunk - o - change to spend. You might hit a home run with an MS70 RP + S, but get a 69 and you are toast and losing $$$. The other three coins won't get a 25th Anny designation. >>
As I said earlier, the set belongs to a friend. He got a box of 5, opened them, and sold 3 sets several months ago while they were still hot. Now, he's offering me one of his two remaining sets. They've been opened but they haven't had any coins switched with lesser examples. If I buy them I don't plan to get them slabbed as I think they look good in their original box.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>Seems like a lot of the flipping on this set is complete. I have a feeling that those who bought them on the secondary market for $600+ will be strong hands and won't be selling for quite a while. We'll see the number available for purchase decline a lot in the coming months.
100k may seem like a lot, but it really isn't. >>
Correct....Look at the holes these coins mintages pose in a series with a 300+ million population and common dates running between 10 and 40 million coins a year.
Eric
<< <i>
<< <i>If you buy a sealed box off of eBay [with the knowledge that the seller is not responsible for the contents] and the coins are spotted just file SNAD and eBay/PP will get your money back and the seller will be SOL. Of course submitting a sealed box is the only way to get that coveted First Strike designation. >>
Good point. Even if the coins in the sealed set were perfect, the buyer could substitute spotted coins from another set and still demand a refund claiming they were SNAD. >>
"
In theory it shouldn't matter about the quality of the coins inside the box. You are buying an unknown quantity sight unseen and there is some risk involved. When you buy what amounts to a "grab bag" you pays your money and you takes your chances.
<< <i>Has it ever been proven or not that a rinse in acetone lessens the odds of milk spots showing up?
No.
The spotting, IMO, is not caused from an organically based contamination which "typically" causes dark toning on silver coins.
The milk spots are believed to be caused from the final rinse of the cleaned planchets just prior to striking. It could very well be a soap residue.
For my silver eagles, I get them into an E-Z-Est bath followed by a thorough rinse in distilled water and warm alcohol as soon as possible after receiving them. This, IMO, lessons the possibility of spotting but is certainly not fool proof.
Mint Sealed First Strike Slabs have the highest potential for spotting since the coins get slabbed out of the box. IF PCGS (the highest incidence of spootted slabbed Eagles) would inspect and "conserve" these coins prior to slabbing, I think the spotting could possibly be addressed.
As for the mintages, 100,000 Silver Eagles is simply not that many compared to the number of folks that actually collect these. The current prices on the 2006 20th Anniversary sets is a good testament to that point. I do believe that the 2011 Anniversary Sets got a bum rap from the get go since it turned alot of collectors off. Given enough time though and they'll see that the prices will have some sustainment given the relative mintages.
The name is LEE!
So...in other words, Eric...you'll be donating at least a chapter to each of these coins in your next book, right?
Anyway, my intention was to keep one set in the OGH b/c I like it that way and move the other 4 on e-bay.
Cheers!
Kirk
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Box of 20
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<< <i>You should wait until a little dust settles on the box, Perry.
Thanks for all the advice so far. I think I'll hold off for now. I thought the initial excitement had already wore off but apparently there is room for these sets to continue to fall in price. I'm also still concerned with the milk spotting issue. Do these spots usually show up within the first two or three years of issue? If I buy a spot-free set a few years from now, should I be confident that they won't form spots assuming that I store them in a stable enviornment?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
These 99,9xx mintage 2011P and 2011S silver dollars are strong in their series. I know dealers that sold out 95W proofs at 800 each by the dozen thinking there was no way a 30,000 mintage silver eagle could ever be any stronger than that. Well 99,9xx is like that at $300 each. This period of dealer inventory overhang will pass and the market will dry up as new collectors with 250,000 mintage special issues they bought close to melt look for back dates that just are not there anymore.
Eric
PS: The lowest special issue scrap rate that I know of was 1/20th of one percent so the 25th special issues are almost certain to have a final final in the 99,9xx range. Less than 100,000.
Standard Disclaimer: I enjoy sharing my views and research with my fellow collectors. While I am very careful in what I share through one of my books or the internet my data is not perfect nor is my interpretation of the data. If you take an interest and buy something that I like you can take a loss. When posting opinions here, they are my opinions, not necessarily those of ModernCoinMart's. The descriptions I am doing on their website are mainly facts as I know them to be with some comparisons but no predictions or investment advice.
If your writings and opinions are presented on MCM's current offerings of these particular 2011 S and RP coins (including now links to their site to buy the coins in each of your posts here on the board) and you are very clear that these coins are like 95W coins that dealers sold at $800/coin and then watched as they rose 300%+ from there in fairly short order... then why in the world should any dealer (MCM, myself or anyone else well funded) or collector for that matter be selling them at these levels? Why "walk" from a 200% or 300% return in a couple years based upon your calculations? Which brings up the related question, if MCM is essentially not socking away every RP and S 2011 25th they can get their hands on (notwithstanding your strong endorsement), then why should I or any other board member you are writing to keep buying at this point?
Wondercoin
What I am trying to say is silver eagles are a huge series with huge populations that are very popular and the mintages you see have to be looked at using a relative rarity model. The 95w when it was $800 looked like a high number for a 30,000 mintage modern but it peaked about $4500ish by the time it was 12 years old. My point is I think that a middle of the bell line grading curve 2011P or 2011S with a 99,9xx approximate final mintage will mature into a price range much like the 100,000 to 200,000 mintage CC dollars did issued by the GSA in the 1970s. The 95W at $800 still had a long way to go before it peaked. I think the 2011S and 2011P have a long way to go before they peak. I am not suggesting that they will move into to price range of a 95w or even close to it.
Now we all know that markets have a very definite random walk to their over time price behavior and I don’t expect these coins to mature for another 5-10 years. I am a small time buy and stack collector/investor and I have about 25 of each of these coins (2011P and 2011S). I like them. They model well. They are in the classic inventory overhang dissipation phase of their life cycle and I think they are a long-term good buy at these price levels. If MCM or Wondercoins were just a buy and stack outfit that did not want to have a relatively high inventory turn rate then yes such entities should buy, buy, buy and hold for 5-10 years IMHO.
If I were very wealthy and looking for some place to "park some money" I can think of no finer place.
Eric
PS:I am not quite as much a fan of the set as I am of the P & S because the other issues in the set are more dependent on the tag than the coin.
Standard Disclaimer: I enjoy sharing my views and research with my fellow collectors. While I am very careful in what I share through one of my books or the internet my data is not perfect nor is my interpretation of the data. If you take an interest and buy something that I like you can take a loss. When posting opinions here, they are my opinions, not necessarily those of ModernCoinMart's. The descriptions I am doing on their website are mainly facts as I know them to be with some comparisons but no predictions or investment advice.
Standard Disclaimer: I enjoy sharing my views and research with my fellow collectors. While I am very careful in what I share through one of my books or the internet my data is not perfect nor is my interpretation of the data. If you take an interest and buy something that I like you can take a loss. When posting opinions here, they are my opinions, not necessarily those of ModernCoinMart's. The descriptions I am doing on their website are mainly facts as I know them to be with some comparisons but no predictions or investment advice.
<< <i>Mitch,
What I am trying to say is silver eagles are a huge series with huge populations that are very popular and the mintages you see have to be looked at using a relative rarity model. The 95w when it was $800 looked like a high number for a 30,000 mintage modern but it peaked about $4500ish by the time it was 12 years old. My point is I think that a middle of the bell line grading curve 2011P or 2011S with a 99,9xx approximate final mintage will mature into a price range much like the 100,000 to 200,000 mintage CC dollars did issued by the GSA in the 1970s. The 95W at $800 still had a long way to go before it peaked. I think the 2011S and 2011P have a long way to go before they peak. I am not suggesting that they will move into to price range of a 95w or even close to it.
Now we all know that markets have a very definite random walk to their over time price behavior and I don’t expect these coins to mature for another 5-10 years. I am a small time buy and stack collector/investor and I have about 25 of each of these coins (2011P and 2011S). In fact for some of my work for MCM last month I took these coins as my pay. I like them. They model well. They are in the classic inventory overhang dissipation phase of their life cycle and I think they are a long-term good buy at these price levels. If MCM or Wondercoins were just a buy and stack outfit that did not want to have a relatively high inventory turn rate then yes such entities should buy, buy, buy and hold IMHO.
If I were very wealthy and looking for some place to "park some money" I can think of no finer place.
Eric
PS:I am not quite as much a fan of the set as I am of the P & S because the other issues in the set are more dependent on the tag than the coin. >>
I gotta agree with you Eric at the 100% Level.
The ONLY reason these are so deflated in price is due to the bad taste left in the mouths of many potential US Mint customers that didn't get in on the ground floor. That "negative" publicity was tremendous!
Yes, there was a huge wave when these initially hit the market YET there were still TONS of buyers so pissed of at the US Mint that they simply were not buying. Many of them sold out their collections to teach the mint a lesson.
However, given the intrinsic value of silver eagles (always worth at least the price of an ounce of silver), these coins act like magnets to draw in new collectors. As many that left will be replaced and when that happens, the prices should go up and the true collectible value based upon the mintages will be achieved.
This dies not even take into account the fact that few folks understand that the "entire" mintage for the 2011 Anniversary sets were special runs. This includes the no=minmark S Coins which the US Mint spokesman stated were ALL produced at the San Francisco Facility.
If I had a ton of money to invest, it would be in these sets at the $700 mark.
The name is LEE!
<< <i>Eric: A question seeking a candid answer and not intended to be "argumentative" in nature at all...
If your writings and opinions are presented on MCM's current offerings of these particular 2011 S and RP coins (including now links to their site to buy the coins in each of your posts here on the board) and you are very clear that these coins are like 95W coins that dealers sold at $800/coin and then watched as they rose 300%+ from there in fairly short order... then why in the world should any dealer (MCM, myself or anyone else well funded) or collector for that matter be selling them at these levels? Why "walk" from a 200% or 300% return in a couple years based upon your calculations? Which brings up the related question, if MCM is essentially not socking away every RP and S 2011 25th they can get their hands on (notwithstanding your strong endorsement), then why should I or any other board member you are writing to keep buying at this point?
Wondercoin >>
Wow, I would not expect this at all from you Mitch. With all sincere due respect, "dealing" IMO (and most every other dealer I know) is all about buying and selling not hoarding or investing. Your philosophy may well differ and that's fine but most of us don't speculate or do so minimally. Eric's opinions are just that, his opinions not written in stone despite his vast base of knowledge. (as you stated, this is not to be argumentative)
Edited to add:
Just because Eric may say something is 2.5 times more scarce, does not equal saying "these will rise 200% or 300%." Did Eric actually say that? We all know that scarcity does not always translate directly into pricing.
John
John Maben
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Wondercoin
I wonder how many sets have been blundered this way, and would this not make the non RP and S designated 25th coins more rare.?
<< <i>. More unfortunately, I opend the sealed box w/o realizing that 3 of the coins in the set would lose their 25th Anniv. designation. What a blunder!
I wonder how many sets have been blundered this way, and would this not make the non RP and S designated 25th coins more rare.? >>
They would be less rare since all RP and S coins are eligible for the 25th anniv label while the other 3 coins are only eligible if they are submitted in unopenned boxes.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire