You guys are right to point out that many of us that collect silver eagles want 5 coin anniversary set tags on our coins slabs and that the W and bullion issues only get one pass through the grading process or maybe none at all. Eventually the S and P Anniversary pops are likely to surpass the higher mintage issues in a meaningful way. But that’s not the end of the story.
The 2006 20th anniversary set is instructive for us because its had a little time to mature. Notice that the 2006W 20th Anniversary silver eagles bring very good money in MS-70 20th Anniversary label but the same coin in a MS-69 20th Anniversary holder does not. Can we expect the same behavior from the 25th set? Seems likely. So what I take away from this is if you are buying complete 70 grade 25th sets then the high mintage issues could be very hard to find as the market dries out but the 69 grade 25th anniversary coins with a high mintage may not get sought after in the same way as the set ages a little.
This is why I like 69 grade 11P and 11S that look good and cheap 70 grade 11P and 11S single issues and 70 grade five coin Anniversary sets.
These comments just reflect what I am doing and why and should not be considered the views of MCM or anyone else. Those that have their focus on better date silver ealges may be disappointed with them in the out years but its where I am looking right now.
Standard Disclaimer: I enjoy sharing my views and research with my fellow collectors. While I am very careful in what I share through one of my books or the internet my data is not perfect nor is my interpretation of the data. If you take an interest and buy something that I like you can take a loss. When posting opinions here, they are my opinions, not necessarily those of ModernCoinMart's. The descriptions I am doing on their website are mainly facts as I know them to be with some comparisons but no predictions or investment advice.
I am not at all sure that the mint can sell as many 200-300k mintage coin issues as it can make indefinitely with buyers assured a 250+% gain if each might be priced at perhaps 250-300 dollars, and do not think I see a track record to prove this point. We have how many examples besides the 20th and 25th Anniv. sets? If every year the mint were to make three eagles each with a 200k mintage, can we honestly expect all to be sold in each of, say, five years and then to expect these to rise in value?
Might there be a "flipper saturation" point that may gradually decline in absolute numbers with the passage of years, as there comes a level of buyer boredom or loss of novelty?
It could happen that performance of such coins occurs, but IMO that is a bold prognostication as the population of actual collectors of this SAE series is debatable (as opposed to the number that might be held in aggregate by flippers & investors), and I wonder if there is a large enough base of such collectors to sustain continued sales at that level with such rises in value "locked in".
Eric, not a criticism, and appreciate your analyses, just presenting a couple of questions...
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
I agree with you that there will not be a bounce of anything like 250% over and over. Maybe not even 10% on half of them. These things are a random walk. But there are likely to be some very good bounce coins over the next 5 years that create collector interest in the broader ASE series.
Lets talk specifics. Last I was told and that changes with the wind the Mint is looking at a two coin set with an unc S and a proof S in a two coin set struck to demand but really 300,000 based on what they think they can strike and box. This is likely to go on sale late in this year. Lets say they sell out after mid November and there is no time to strike more. So then you have a new 2XX,XXX+ 2012S cameo proof and a 2012S unc. What will the market do in the spring? The coins are not likely to stay say a $125 set. I would expect a bounce.
Then the next year what may happen? Everyone wants the new set when it comes out but the Mint can foresee the demand more clearly and strike runs and sales go up. The coin flat lines. After a couple boring issues the sales and succeeding striking runs drop back and one of the coins jump. We see these cycles over and over again.
My point in answer to your question is if you are selling 10 million coins and you have one of these anomalies then you end up with a 3 million coin issue and nothing happens. If you are striking various mint marked dollars in the 150,000 to 400,000 range and an anomaly shows up in a series with 10,000,000 mintage common dates then you really have something. I don’t know and don’t care to predict which coins are going to be the strong ones. But when the special issues mintages already look like rounding errors on the common dates then a random walk event shows up the collecting public takes an interest. I am just guessing that over the next ten years we are going to see a hand full of good mint marked silver eagles.
Remember that federal issue of silver dollar bags and CC issues that were rare in the early 1960s and then again in the 70s helped energize the Morgans and contributed to their stunning longer term success. I catch heat from time to time from those that follow my work when I say I think follow on special issue dollars in the 150,000 to 400,000 range are good for the ASE series. Short term a 190,000 mintage 2013S may not be good for guys like me that stack good back dated material and sit on it. Long term may be a different story and thats where I am spending my money now and why.
Standard Disclaimer: I enjoy sharing my views and research with my fellow collectors. While I am very careful in what I share through one of my books or the internet my data is not perfect nor is my interpretation of the data. If you take an interest and buy something that I like you can take a loss. When posting opinions here, they are my opinions, not necessarily those of ModernCoinMart's. The descriptions I am doing on their website are mainly facts as I know them to be with some comparisons but no predictions or investment advice.
<< <i>I am not at all sure that the mint can sell as many 200-300k mintage coin issues as it can make indefinitely with buyers assured a 250+% gain if each might be priced at perhaps 250-300 dollars, and do not think I see a track record to prove this point. We have how many examples besides the 20th and 25th Anniv. sets? If every year the mint were to make three eagles each with a 200k mintage, can we honestly expect all to be sold in each of, say, five years and then to expect these to rise in value?
Might there be a "flipper saturation" point that may gradually decline in absolute numbers with the passage of years, as there comes a level of buyer boredom or loss of novelty?
It could happen that performance of such coins occurs, but IMO that is a bold prognostication as the population of actual collectors of this SAE series is debatable (as opposed to the number that might be held in aggregate by flippers & investors), and I wonder if there is a large enough base of such collectors to sustain continued sales at that level with such rises in value "locked in".
Eric, not a criticism, and appreciate your analyses, just presenting a couple of questions... >>
So what do we think would be the better scenario for the overall value of the 25th coins:
A.) They pump out multiple mint marked silver eagles.
B.) They don't pump out multiple mint marked silver eagles and wait another 5 years to do another anniversary.
Successful coin BST transactions with Gerard and segoja.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
The Morgan Dollar Series lasted 27 years. The ASE will be going on 26 years. The series needs to be retired soon. I feel the Mint will over saturated the market in the coming years to the point that you will need at least $300 a year to keep up with the series. Just a few years ago an ASE proof was only around $30 from the mint.
Theoretical Future Mint Offerings. ASE W $60 ASE Proof $60 ASE special 2-3 coin sets sets $150-$200.
<< <i>The Morgan Dollar Series lasted 27 years. The ASE will be going on 26 years. The series needs to be retired soon. I feel the Mint will over saturated the market in the coming years to the point that you will need at least $300 a year to keep up with the series. Just a few years ago an ASE proof was only around $30 from the mint.
Theoretical Future Mint Offerings. ASE W $60 ASE Proof $60 ASE special 2-3 coin sets sets $150-$200. >>
I somewhat agree. A good design change is needed. I used to LOVE the SAEs (proof and business) and I have been burned out. I still like nicely toned examples (more on the business strike than the proofs though), but the design is tired now.
I somewhat agree. A good design change is needed. I used to LOVE the SAEs (proof and business) and I have been burned out. I still like nicely toned examples (more on the business strike than the proofs though), but the design is tired now. >>
How about Alice Paul for 27 years?
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
Obviously collector funds that are chasing a new special issue will not be chasing back date issues at the same time while the series is active so I would guess that only an Anniversary set every 5 years may be best for 25th Anniversary sets in the short run. Longer term I see a trend in coinage history that high population series with a profoundly staggered population chart tend to mature well and acquire a meaningful collector base. Longer term I think an interesting array of mint marked silver eagles improve the series structure. Some are concerned that too many silver eagle issues will damage the sets attractiveness to new or existing collectors. We need to bear in mind that the Morgan Dollar series has about 96 mint state members. We are not even close to that yet so I think the modern silver dollars are not even close to the point of series over stretch.
Standard Disclaimer: I enjoy sharing my views and research with my fellow collectors. While I am very careful in what I share through one of my books or the internet my data is not perfect nor is my interpretation of the data. If you take an interest and buy something that I like you can take a loss. When posting opinions here, they are my opinions, not necessarily those of ModernCoinMart's. The descriptions I am doing on their website are mainly facts as I know them to be with some comparisons but no predictions or investment advice.
I'm only holding one pcgs 70 25th Anny set for possible future gain. Potential milkspotting and the speculative nature of what the future holds for these sets led me to sell four 69 sets and two 70 sets a month ago. I'd rather turn the inventory now and minimize my risk, get the cash and move on to other items to flip. There's other opportunities out there. I'm not big enough money to sit on 25th sets for five years just to see what happens. I gotta keep moving + churning.
I have friends and family and people I don’t even know ask me "Eric what are you buying" or "what should I buy". People are worried about the long-term issues of the governments run away debt and the long term taxes and inflation that may result. I am not around to place the short play order for them but I can give them some kind of guidance and lately its been look to the silver eagles. There are many reasons for this.
*We are continuing to see high paying industrial jobs and economic growth show up in other nations and not ours. Long term disposable income after taxes has peaked and looks like in real terms is on a downward slop. Large denominations struck on gold and platinum are not affordable to many in the broad middle class. This does not indicate that the middle class does not share the same concerns that the wealthy do but their collector/investor interest in coinage and precious metals will show up where they can afford to operate.
*High dollar issues are priced over $600 each. Over time I think every coin sold worth over some nominal value like $600 is going to have federal tax paperwork follow it. Silver eagles can grow allot and not create a cumbersome paper trail 10 years out if you need to sell one.
*The more expensive a coin becomes the thinner the market becomes. Silver dollar series tend to be more liquid that many other collecting forms.
*Coins flatten out after about 4 grand with mintages that we normally associate with better date moderns. Its not hard for a great dollar to trade for a grand when its mature.
So about a month ago one of my fellow employees came by and asked what advice he should give one of his friends that teaches at GA Tech on buying coins. I told him "Kelley tell the man to go by a roll of every mint marked silver eagle that the mint sells for the next ten years if he can get them. Throw them in the back of the lock box and give them to his daughters."
It is just great that we all have a front row seat for the show the silver eagles are likely to put on over the next 20 years if we live that long.
Standard Disclaimer: I enjoy sharing my views and research with my fellow collectors. While I am very careful in what I share through one of my books or the internet my data is not perfect nor is my interpretation of the data. If you take an interest and buy something that I like you can take a loss. When posting opinions here, they are my opinions, not necessarily those of ModernCoinMart's. The descriptions I am doing on their website are mainly facts as I know them to be with some comparisons but no predictions or investment advice.
<< <i>I'm only holding one pcgs 70 25th Anny set for possible future gain. Potential milkspotting and the speculative nature of what the future holds for these sets led me to sell four 69 sets and two 70 sets a month ago. I'd rather turn the inventory now and minimize my risk, get the cash and move on to other items to flip. There's other opportunities out there. I'm not big enough money to sit on 25th sets for five years just to see what happens. I gotta keep moving + churning. >>
You are a short term trader that operates on the inaugural price spike but some people are not dealers and want to buy and hold for other reasons. Constantly turning creates taxable events that some of us dont want to deal with. We are all different.
Standard Disclaimer: I enjoy sharing my views and research with my fellow collectors. While I am very careful in what I share through one of my books or the internet my data is not perfect nor is my interpretation of the data. If you take an interest and buy something that I like you can take a loss. When posting opinions here, they are my opinions, not necessarily those of ModernCoinMart's. The descriptions I am doing on their website are mainly facts as I know them to be with some comparisons but no predictions or investment advice.
Comments
The 2006 20th anniversary set is instructive for us because its had a little time to mature.
Notice that the 2006W 20th Anniversary silver eagles bring very good money in MS-70 20th Anniversary label but the same coin in a MS-69 20th Anniversary holder does not. Can we expect the same behavior from the 25th set? Seems likely. So what I take away from this is if you are buying complete 70 grade 25th sets then the high mintage issues could be very hard to find as the market dries out but the 69 grade 25th anniversary coins with a high mintage may not get sought after in the same way as the set ages a little.
This is why I like 69 grade 11P and 11S that look good and cheap 70 grade 11P and 11S single issues and 70 grade five coin Anniversary sets.
These comments just reflect what I am doing and why and should not be considered the views of MCM or anyone else. Those that have their focus on better date silver ealges may be disappointed with them in the out years but its where I am looking right now.
Standard Disclaimer: I enjoy sharing my views and research with my fellow collectors. While I am very careful in what I share through one of my books or the internet my data is not perfect nor is my interpretation of the data. If you take an interest and buy something that I like you can take a loss. When posting opinions here, they are my opinions, not necessarily those of ModernCoinMart's. The descriptions I am doing on their website are mainly facts as I know them to be with some comparisons but no predictions or investment advice.
Might there be a "flipper saturation" point that may gradually decline in absolute numbers with the passage of years, as there comes a level of buyer boredom or loss of novelty?
It could happen that performance of such coins occurs, but IMO that is a bold prognostication as the population of actual collectors of this SAE series is debatable (as opposed to the number that might be held in aggregate by flippers & investors), and I wonder if there is a large enough base of such collectors to sustain continued sales at that level with such rises in value "locked in".
Eric, not a criticism, and appreciate your analyses, just presenting a couple of questions...
Well, just Love coins, period.
Lets talk specifics. Last I was told and that changes with the wind the Mint is looking at a two coin set with an unc S and a proof S in a two coin set struck to demand but really 300,000 based on what they think they can strike and box. This is likely to go on sale late in this year. Lets say they sell out after mid November and there is no time to strike more. So then you have a new 2XX,XXX+ 2012S cameo proof and a 2012S unc. What will the market do in the spring? The coins are not likely to stay say a $125 set. I would expect a bounce.
Then the next year what may happen? Everyone wants the new set when it comes out but the Mint can foresee the demand more clearly and strike runs and sales go up. The coin flat lines. After a couple boring issues the sales and succeeding striking runs drop back and one of the coins jump. We see these cycles over and over again.
My point in answer to your question is if you are selling 10 million coins and you have one of these anomalies then you end up with a 3 million coin issue and nothing happens. If you are striking various mint marked dollars in the 150,000 to 400,000 range and an anomaly shows up in a series with 10,000,000 mintage common dates then you really have something. I don’t know and don’t care to predict which coins are going to be the strong ones. But when the special issues mintages already look like rounding errors on the common dates then a random walk event shows up the collecting public takes an interest. I am just guessing that over the next ten years we are going to see a hand full of good mint marked silver eagles.
Remember that federal issue of silver dollar bags and CC issues that were rare in the early 1960s and then again in the 70s helped energize the Morgans and contributed to their stunning longer term success. I catch heat from time to time from those that follow my work when I say I think follow on special issue dollars in the 150,000 to 400,000 range are good for the ASE series. Short term a 190,000 mintage 2013S may not be good for guys like me that stack good back dated material and sit on it. Long term may be a different story and thats where I am spending my money now and why.
Standard Disclaimer: I enjoy sharing my views and research with my fellow collectors. While I am very careful in what I share through one of my books or the internet my data is not perfect nor is my interpretation of the data. If you take an interest and buy something that I like you can take a loss. When posting opinions here, they are my opinions, not necessarily those of ModernCoinMart's. The descriptions I am doing on their website are mainly facts as I know them to be with some comparisons but no predictions or investment advice.
-Paul
<< <i>I am not at all sure that the mint can sell as many 200-300k mintage coin issues as it can make indefinitely with buyers assured a 250+% gain if each might be priced at perhaps 250-300 dollars, and do not think I see a track record to prove this point. We have how many examples besides the 20th and 25th Anniv. sets? If every year the mint were to make three eagles each with a 200k mintage, can we honestly expect all to be sold in each of, say, five years and then to expect these to rise in value?
Might there be a "flipper saturation" point that may gradually decline in absolute numbers with the passage of years, as there comes a level of buyer boredom or loss of novelty?
It could happen that performance of such coins occurs, but IMO that is a bold prognostication as the population of actual collectors of this SAE series is debatable (as opposed to the number that might be held in aggregate by flippers & investors), and I wonder if there is a large enough base of such collectors to sustain continued sales at that level with such rises in value "locked in".
Eric, not a criticism, and appreciate your analyses, just presenting a couple of questions... >>
So what do we think would be the better scenario for the overall value of the 25th coins:
A.) They pump out multiple mint marked silver eagles.
B.) They don't pump out multiple mint marked silver eagles and wait another 5 years to do another anniversary.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
Theoretical Future Mint Offerings.
ASE W $60
ASE Proof $60
ASE special 2-3 coin sets sets $150-$200.
Box of 20
<< <i>The Morgan Dollar Series lasted 27 years. The ASE will be going on 26 years. The series needs to be retired soon. I feel the Mint will over saturated the market in the coming years to the point that you will need at least $300 a year to keep up with the series. Just a few years ago an ASE proof was only around $30 from the mint.
Theoretical Future Mint Offerings.
ASE W $60
ASE Proof $60
ASE special 2-3 coin sets sets $150-$200. >>
I somewhat agree. A good design change is needed. I used to LOVE the SAEs (proof and business) and I have been burned out.
I still like nicely toned examples (more on the business strike than the proofs though), but the design is tired now.
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
I still like nicely toned examples (more on the business strike than the proofs though), but the design is tired now. >>
How about Alice Paul for 27 years?
Some are concerned that too many silver eagle issues will damage the sets attractiveness to new or existing collectors. We need to bear in mind that the Morgan Dollar series has about 96 mint state members. We are not even close to that yet so I think the modern silver dollars are not even close to the point of series over stretch.
Standard Disclaimer: I enjoy sharing my views and research with my fellow collectors. While I am very careful in what I share through one of my books or the internet my data is not perfect nor is my interpretation of the data. If you take an interest and buy something that I like you can take a loss. When posting opinions here, they are my opinions, not necessarily those of ModernCoinMart's. The descriptions I am doing on their website are mainly facts as I know them to be with some comparisons but no predictions or investment advice.
*We are continuing to see high paying industrial jobs and economic growth show up in other nations and not ours. Long term disposable income after taxes has peaked and looks like in real terms is on a downward slop. Large denominations struck on gold and platinum are not affordable to many in the broad middle class. This does not indicate that the middle class does not share the same concerns that the wealthy do but their collector/investor interest in coinage and precious metals will show up where they can afford to operate.
*High dollar issues are priced over $600 each. Over time I think every coin sold worth over some nominal value like $600 is going to have federal tax paperwork follow it. Silver eagles can grow allot and not create a cumbersome paper trail 10 years out if you need to sell one.
*The more expensive a coin becomes the thinner the market becomes. Silver dollar series tend to be more liquid that many other collecting forms.
*Coins flatten out after about 4 grand with mintages that we normally associate with better date moderns. Its not hard for a great dollar to trade for a grand when its mature.
So about a month ago one of my fellow employees came by and asked what advice he should give one of his friends that teaches at GA Tech on buying coins. I told him "Kelley tell the man to go by a roll of every mint marked silver eagle that the mint sells for the next ten years if he can get them. Throw them in the back of the lock box and give them to his daughters."
It is just great that we all have a front row seat for the show the silver eagles are likely to put on over the next 20 years if we live that long.
Standard Disclaimer: I enjoy sharing my views and research with my fellow collectors. While I am very careful in what I share through one of my books or the internet my data is not perfect nor is my interpretation of the data. If you take an interest and buy something that I like you can take a loss. When posting opinions here, they are my opinions, not necessarily those of ModernCoinMart's. The descriptions I am doing on their website are mainly facts as I know them to be with some comparisons but no predictions or investment advice.
<< <i>I'm only holding one pcgs 70 25th Anny set for possible future gain. Potential milkspotting and the speculative nature of what the future holds for these sets led me to sell four 69 sets and two 70 sets a month ago. I'd rather turn the inventory now and minimize my risk, get the cash and move on to other items to flip. There's other opportunities out there. I'm not big enough money to sit on 25th sets for five years just to see what happens. I gotta keep moving + churning. >>
You are a short term trader that operates on the inaugural price spike but some people are not dealers and want to buy and hold for other reasons. Constantly turning creates taxable events that some of us dont want to deal with. We are all different.
Standard Disclaimer: I enjoy sharing my views and research with my fellow collectors. While I am very careful in what I share through one of my books or the internet my data is not perfect nor is my interpretation of the data. If you take an interest and buy something that I like you can take a loss. When posting opinions here, they are my opinions, not necessarily those of ModernCoinMart's. The descriptions I am doing on their website are mainly facts as I know them to be with some comparisons but no predictions or investment advice.