A silver at a coin show conundrum. What the heck is going on?
piecesofme
Posts: 6,669 ✭✭✭
Just got back from the biggest monthly coin show in the area and am I ever confused. Maybe you can help me make some sense of it?
This is typically an 80-90 table show, so for around here, it’s fairly big.
Everybody, and I mean everybody had 10oz silver bars out. Some 1 oz’s, some 5 oz’s, but 10’s were out the ying-yang. They were everywhere! Not just a few, I mean a lot, the most I’ve seen since I’ve been going to this show. Even coin guys had .999 Silver in their display cases. That tells me one thing.
People in the know must think Silver is going to tank (remember, this is a monthly show) and they think they better sell it because there’s not going to be another outlet like this for a month. There are other shows kind of in the same general area before the next one of these in a month, but not nearly this big.
So here’s the conundrum. Everyone, and believe me I asked every one of them wants to sell them for no less than Spot + $2…at a minimum, some wanted +3, one guy +$3.50. And these are for your typical what I call “generic” bars, not Engelhards or JM’s.
So does this mean they are all mostly into what they are trying to sell for Spot +$2-3 so they’re making it available like never seen before at this show?
Do they think Silver is at a tipping point and this is as close as they are going to come for awhile before they can come close to at least breaking even?
Why are people that normally don’t display .999 at their table suddenly now have a lot of it available, but only at what I feel is more than top Dollar for generic bars? And it didn’t matter if you bought 1 bar or 15, the price was the same…no quantity deals.
And no, this wasn’t a coin show wide conspiracy against me.
I listened to others inquiring and they were getting the same riot act read to them.
Thoughts anyone?
This is typically an 80-90 table show, so for around here, it’s fairly big.
Everybody, and I mean everybody had 10oz silver bars out. Some 1 oz’s, some 5 oz’s, but 10’s were out the ying-yang. They were everywhere! Not just a few, I mean a lot, the most I’ve seen since I’ve been going to this show. Even coin guys had .999 Silver in their display cases. That tells me one thing.
People in the know must think Silver is going to tank (remember, this is a monthly show) and they think they better sell it because there’s not going to be another outlet like this for a month. There are other shows kind of in the same general area before the next one of these in a month, but not nearly this big.
So here’s the conundrum. Everyone, and believe me I asked every one of them wants to sell them for no less than Spot + $2…at a minimum, some wanted +3, one guy +$3.50. And these are for your typical what I call “generic” bars, not Engelhards or JM’s.
So does this mean they are all mostly into what they are trying to sell for Spot +$2-3 so they’re making it available like never seen before at this show?
Do they think Silver is at a tipping point and this is as close as they are going to come for awhile before they can come close to at least breaking even?
Why are people that normally don’t display .999 at their table suddenly now have a lot of it available, but only at what I feel is more than top Dollar for generic bars? And it didn’t matter if you bought 1 bar or 15, the price was the same…no quantity deals.
And no, this wasn’t a coin show wide conspiracy against me.
I listened to others inquiring and they were getting the same riot act read to them. Thoughts anyone?
To forgive is to free a prisoner, and to discover that prisoner was you.
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Comments
It's all about what the people want...
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Just got back from the biggest monthly coin show in the area and am I ever confused. Maybe you can help me make some sense of it?
This is typically an 80-90 table show, so for around here, it’s fairly big.
Everybody, and I mean everybody had 10oz silver bars out. Some 1 oz’s, some 5 oz’s, but 10’s were out the ying-yang. They were everywhere! Not just a few, I mean a lot, the most I’ve seen since I’ve been going to this show. Even coin guys had .999 Silver in their display cases. That tells me one thing.
People in the know must think Silver is going to tank (remember, this is a monthly show) and they think they better sell it because there’s not going to be another outlet like this for a month. There are other shows kind of in the same general area before the next one of these in a month, but not nearly this big.
So here’s the conundrum. Everyone, and believe me I asked every one of them wants to sell them for no less than Spot + $2…at a minimum, some wanted +3, one guy +$3.50. And these are for your typical what I call “generic” bars, not Engelhards or JM’s.
So does this mean they are all mostly into what they are trying to sell for Spot +$2-3 so they’re making it available like never seen before at this show?
Do they think Silver is at a tipping point and this is as close as they are going to come for awhile before they can come close to at least breaking even?
Why are people that normally don’t display .999 at their table suddenly now have a lot of it available, but only at what I feel is more than top Dollar for generic bars? And it didn’t matter if you bought 1 bar or 15, the price was the same…no quantity deals.
And no, this wasn’t a coin show wide conspiracy against me.
Thoughts anyone? >>
What was this riot act of which you spoke?
So here’s the conundrum. Everyone, and believe me I asked every one of them wants to sell them for no less than Spot + $2…at a minimum, some wanted +3, one guy +$3.50. And these are for your typical what I call “generic” bars, not Engelhards or JM’s.----------------
It may be the opposite.
If I was selling and I thought spot was going down I'd be selling for little above spot if any, to unload it before the drop. But if I thought spot was going up I'd be selling for a premium over spot, figuring that spot would be there soon. I certainly wouldn't be seeking premium prices for something I thought was losing value and I wouldn't discount something I thought was increasing in value.
Or it could just be the table fees or that people are paying those prices, so why not charge them.
<< <i>So, what's the question? They have them for sale and don't want to drop their premiums. It looks like they smell an opportunity and have inventory that they bought for less. No conspiracy - just the good old profit motive at work. >>
The question is "when everybody and his dog is selling the same thing [all at some pre-agreed price] are they in the know about something and dumping before the SHTF?
But when no one is buying at those inflated premiums, what does that tell you? I'm all for a guy trying to make a buck on the hype of what might happen, but when they're being offered in droves and no one is buying, maybe the public (like me) says wtf is going on and doesn't get caught up in the hype?
FWIW even $3.50 over spot is pretty standard/slight deal here on generic 10oz bars. I don't even buy maples any more because the prices on them are pretty silly.
It tells me the price is too high. Just because you think it might go higher is not a real good reason to overpay.
I was at a small monthly show today as well. Silver at the premiums you mentioned was not selling, while more reasonably priced bars were. There were a few selling 90% above melt - and it never moved, at least while I was walking around. Didn't really pay much attention to anything else.
Sounds to me like the would-be buyers aren't buying, just as the would-be sellers aren't selling. When the price starts moving, someone will start kicking themselves for not buying or someone will be kicking themselves for not loading up more.
Nobody wants to commit unless they can score. Nobody wins until the larger market moves.
Added: Looking at Friday's chart, silver spiked a dollar. When volatility increases, so do the spreads. This is part of what you're seeing.
I knew it would happen.
1. People "in the know" don't tell the average joe coin dealer at a local show anything. Even this assumes that some people "know" how silver will move in the short term.
2. I imagine any number of coin dealers need to raise money to pay taxes on or before April 15th. Offering product they normally hold back may be explained by a need to raise cash.
As far as their pricing is concerned, if they expected silver to tank they would not be expecting $2-$3 over. In my opinion they are asking as much as they are because they believe someone will pay their price. If any individual buyer is unhappy they just may not care.
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/gold/liberty-head-2-1-gold-major-sets/liberty-head-2-1-gold-basic-set-circulation-strikes-1840-1907-cac/alltimeset/268163
I can't sell mine offering it below with me paying shipping
crazy times.
<< <i>People "in the know" don't tell the average joe coin dealer at a local show anything. >>
I agree, that's why I'm not saying anything either.
type2,CCHunter.
Too much and no. A lot of puzzled, long faces gathering in corners asking each other what the hell is going on here today.
<< <i>I think we're gonna see $5 an ounce again, might not be soon, but its coming. >>
Right after we see dollar gas?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>
<< <i>I think we're gonna see $5 an ounce again, might not be soon, but its coming. >>
Right after we see dollar gas? >>
Let's not forget 5 cent cigars.
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/gold/liberty-head-2-1-gold-major-sets/liberty-head-2-1-gold-basic-set-circulation-strikes-1840-1907-cac/alltimeset/268163
<< <i>I think we're gonna see $5 an ounce again, might not be soon, but its coming. >>
If you mean $5/oz premiums when silver is at $50+ then I agree with you.
<< <i>
The question is "when everybody and his dog is selling the same thing [all at some pre-agreed price] are they in the know about something and dumping before the SHTF? >>
You sound nervous. If so, sell your silver.
<< <i>
<< <i>
The question is "when everybody and his dog is selling the same thing [all at some pre-agreed price] are they in the know about something and dumping before the SHTF? >>
You sound nervous. If so, sell your silver. >>
When/if SLV recovers, I intend to do just that. I was almost there last week until things decided to go south. I don't have enough physical silver to get excited about.
<< <i>every one question who attended shows this weekend. What were the buy prices? Were they buying?
Too much and no. A lot of puzzled, long faces gathering in corners asking each other what the hell is going on here today. >>
So what is a normal premium over spot for generic silver bars?
<< <i>
<< <i>every one question who attended shows this weekend. What were the buy prices? Were they buying?
Too much and no. A lot of puzzled, long faces gathering in corners asking each other what the hell is going on here today. >>
So what is a normal premium over spot for generic silver bars? >>
$1 - $2
Not from the local coin stores I buy from, of course they give me volume purchasing discounts though because i've been buying from them (not just .999, quality CC Morgans too) for years & years. I think it's important to build trading relationships if you're a collector at heart. I've been blessed having done so.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I think we're gonna see $5 an ounce again, might not be soon, but its coming. >>
Right after we see dollar gas? >>
Let's not forget 5 cent cigars. >>
Man o man would I love some 5 cent cigars and dollar gas! My trip to the stogie store Saturday was over $35 for the 3 I picked up for the humidor.
<< <i>Wow...glad I do not smoke... especially cigars.... Cheers, RickO >>
I haven't had one in about 3 weeks but I like to have some nice ones around for when I do smoke one, or have company over that would enjoy a nice one they wouldn't normally smoke.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>every one question who attended shows this weekend. What were the buy prices? Were they buying?
Too much and no. A lot of puzzled, long faces gathering in corners asking each other what the hell is going on here today. >>
So what is a normal premium over spot for generic silver bars? >>
$1 - $2 >>
How likely are these to assay lower than 99.9% or whatever standard purity is supposed to be?
Why, that's absolutely ridiculous! Impossible! Why, silver rocketed to $49 in 1979, just like it did in September 2011, and after that high in 1979 it never.. fell.. um.. to $5, um, again, um, er did it?
It did?
Hmmm, never mind
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>I think we're gonna see $5 an ounce again, might not be soon, but its coming.
Why, that's absolutely ridiculous! Impossible! Why, silver rocketed to $49 in 1979, just like it did in September 2011, and after that high in 1979 it never.. fell.. um.. to $5, um, again, um, er did it?
It did?
Hmmm, never mind
Well right now it has a better start towards $5 than it does $55.
<< <i>
<< <i>I think we're gonna see $5 an ounce again, might not be soon, but its coming. >>
Right after we see dollar gas? >>
Four years ago gas was at around $5 a gallon and Then droped all the way back down to around $1.09 where I live.
The fundamentals for $50-$100 dollar silver are there only in the eyes of the holders of the biggest postions. They keep trying to hold the market up so they don't lose there you know what. These are the only people I see claiming over and over $100 silver $3000 dollar gold. I don't buy it, but lets just wait and see.
type2,CCHunter.
In God We Trust.... all others pay in Gold and Silver!
Some guy who watches dust collect on his over priced case while squirting special sauce on his
off the rack shirt?
I dont think so pal. Fishing for sucker fish maybe.
What can mini van man do for me? Nada.
I operate on a different level. A cumulative RSS feed fiend, multi-message board maestro.
Spot dances across my retina as 5 to 6 dealers offerings are cross averaged against eBay closings for my perusal.
Loves me some shiny!
<< <i>
<< <i>
The question is "when everybody and his dog is selling the same thing [all at some pre-agreed price] are they in the know about something and dumping before the SHTF? >>
You sound nervous. If so, sell your silver. >>
Actually, I was just rephrasing the question that the OP asked. I'm not really nervous. Just waiting for paper silver to get back to break even so I can dump it and buy something more productive.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I think we're gonna see $5 an ounce again, might not be soon, but its coming. >>
Right after we see dollar gas? >>
Four years ago gas was at around $5 a gallon and Then droped all the way back down to around $1.09 where I live.
The fundamentals for $50-$100 dollar silver are there only in the eyes of the holders of the biggest postions. They keep trying to hold the market up so they don't lose there you know what. These are the only people I see claiming over and over $100 silver $3000 dollar gold. I don't buy it, but lets just wait and see. >>
Gas dropped to $1.09 per gallon sometime in the last four years? Prove it please.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I think we're gonna see $5 an ounce again, might not be soon, but its coming. >>
Right after we see dollar gas? >>
Four years ago gas was at around $5 a gallon and Then droped all the way back down to around $1.09 where I live.
The fundamentals for $50-$100 dollar silver are there only in the eyes of the holders of the biggest postions. They keep trying to hold the market up so they don't lose there you know what. These are the only people I see claiming over and over $100 silver $3000 dollar gold. I don't buy it, but lets just wait and see. >>
Gas dropped to $1.09 per gallon sometime in the last four years? Prove it please. >>
Here is a chart for four years notice spike up first quarter of 2008 then drop to bottom few months later. Well where I live Gas was at almost $5 a gallon just like now then it was $1.09 and I was like is gas gonna go under a dollar.chart But anyways heres all the proof I got.
Note: Click on four year chart, for some reason it only linked to 1 month chart
type2,CCHunter.
type2,CCHunter.
type2,CCHunter.
<< <i>I understand the point you are trying to make, you think silver is headed lower. I just take exception to you using wildly inaccurate numbers to use as "proof". >>
Are you talking regular unleaded or premium or whatever "super premium" there is?
Also, he is correct that there is often quite the spread in gas prices, even locally. Where I live, I do NOT see under $4.09, right now, for any of the "majors", but our "average" is quote in the "$3.9x" range. I know there are some that are a bit cheaper just an hour from me. They are skewing the average. But the folks down there will say that we are skewing the average to a higher point. Just an hour away (due to traffic).....about 10-12 miles away sometimes.
This whole "prove it" thing is utter nonsense. If you don't believe a poster, then that is fine. If someone is off by just a tad, then that is fine (imho). If he had said $.03 gas and $50 gas, that would be quite different.
Without knowing where the person lives, or is talking about, it is quite rude to totally question what they are talking about. Someone in Houston CERTAINLY pays less than someone in Hawaii. Maybe he lives in Argentina or Saudi Arabia. That is certainly less there. Without knowing more info, just saying "Prove it" is ridiculous.
Now, that said, to the original post.....if the dealers were offering the bars for spot+a small premium (say, $0.50 or so), then I would think they thought that "the end was near" for silver run up. However, they may see quite the demand, have gotten good deals on the items as customers sold them, and figure to offer them up, but only at a higher premium in case someone does buy, they score and can restock most likely. If they sold too low, they couldn't restock as well.
Or, it could be like some of my local dealers....they had put some of this stuff away and may be deciding to free some of it up and get some capital to put elsewhere (gold? moderns/ATBs
From the information given, I don't think one could be all doom and gloom on silver from that...not like they are "in the know".
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
I think we need a gummint agency to control supply and demand of bullion products. Then we won't have these problems!!!!!
<< <i>So let's see.......if forum member "x" cannot find bars at a given time and a given place it is evidence of a conspiracy, whereas if forum member "y" see "too many" bars at a different time in a different place it is also evidence of a conspiracy.........
I think we need a gummint agency to control supply and demand of bullion products. Then we won't have these problems!!!!! >>
When you see something out of the ordinary, it do make you wonder. Then again maybe they all thought that silver bars would be hotter than a snake's ass in a wagon rut!