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A silver at a coin show conundrum. What the heck is going on?

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  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,100 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Well, it appears that the dealers at the show that were pumping just to really dump were "in the know". Down about 4% in 2+ days as I post this. >>




    But if they didnt sell any, were they so smart?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • gsa1fangsa1fan Posts: 5,566 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Well, it appears that the dealers at the show that were pumping just to really dump were "in the know". Down about 4% in 2+ days as I post this. >>



    Why the premiums if they were dumping itimage
    Avid collector of GSA's.


  • << <i>Well, it appears that the dealers at the show that were pumping just to really dump were "in the know". Down about 4% in 2+ days as I post this. >>



    According to some people on this thread, 4% does not even register on the charts. They don't get upset about a 33% price difference.
  • BAJJERFANBAJJERFAN Posts: 31,082 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Well, it appears that the dealers at the show that were pumping just to really dump were "in the know". Down about 4% in 2+ days as I post this. >>




    But if they didnt sell any, were they so smart? >>



    They just tried to sell; you can't sell if no one wants to buy. Wonder what they all had in those bars. If they got them at $2 under spot, they might have been smarter to sell at spot IF they wanted to unload them. It's the old fast nickel vs a slow dime play.
    theknowitalltroll;
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,100 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>Well, it appears that the dealers at the show that were pumping just to really dump were "in the know". Down about 4% in 2+ days as I post this. >>




    But if they didnt sell any, were they so smart? >>



    They just tried to sell; you can't sell if no one wants to buy. Wonder what they all had in those bars. If they got them at $2 under spot, they might have been smarter to sell at spot IF they wanted to unload them. It's the old fast nickel vs a slow dime play. >>



    I think there could be a few B&Ms that go under this year if the metals continue to weaken. All that money tied up. Eventually they will ahve to liquidate which pushes prices even lower, which results in more forced selling.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • BAJJERFANBAJJERFAN Posts: 31,082 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>Well, it appears that the dealers at the show that were pumping just to really dump were "in the know". Down about 4% in 2+ days as I post this. >>




    But if they didnt sell any, were they so smart? >>



    They just tried to sell; you can't sell if no one wants to buy. Wonder what they all had in those bars. If they got them at $2 under spot, they might have been smarter to sell at spot IF they wanted to unload them. It's the old fast nickel vs a slow dime play. >>



    I think there could be a few B&Ms that go under this year if the metals continue to weaken. All that money tied up. Eventually they will ahve to liquidate which pushes prices even lower, which results in more forced selling. >>



    How many do you think are sitting on higher priced bullion?
    theknowitalltroll;
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,100 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I think many, if not all. The quick selloff in May and Sept caught them by surprise and they never have gotten back to even. Those that manage inventory well should fare well, but those that got caught up in the hype (easy to do in a bull market) could suffer. And it could be very, very quick.

    I am of the very firm belief that the ETFs had A LOT to do with the metals run. What happens if that fast money decides to leave SLV?

    There are 3 or 4 gold buyers in my local mall. Thats ridiculous. Things need to get shaken out to return to a more normal and healthy market.

    ANd how many of the small B&Ms actually make a living selling coins? I think very few.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • BochimanBochiman Posts: 25,377 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Well, it appears that the dealers at the show that were pumping just to really dump were "in the know". Down about 4% in 2+ days as I post this. >>




    But if they didnt sell any, were they so smart? >>




    Exactly! If there were really "in the know" they would have priced them to sell, and by the end of the show. To make a claim that "silver is down 4% in 2 days so they were in the know" is like flipping a coin, having someone call heads 10 out of 10 times, and each time it comes up "heads", saying how smart and psychic they are.

    I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment

  • BochimanBochiman Posts: 25,377 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I am of the very firm belief that the ETFs had A LOT to do with the metals run. What happens if that fast money decides to leave SLV? >>




    You mean, like if the stock market actually starts doing better all around and the banks start to "recover" and go up, and technology stocks go up, etc? Then, people that flew those types of stocks and went into PMs (whether by hard assets or ETFs) may decide it is time to go running back to the "regular" market to get in on the rise? image

    (btw...I agree with you)

    I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment

  • OnlyGoldIsMoneyOnlyGoldIsMoney Posts: 3,358 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Well, it appears that the dealers at the show that were pumping just to really dump were "in the know". Down about 4% in 2+ days as I post this. >>



    Why the premiums if they were dumping itimage >>




    They weren't "in the know". They just wanted the dough.
  • mikeygmikeyg Posts: 1,002




    It may be unpopular,but I am in the small minority that think that many of those dealers did have some info about a dip in prices for silver.Someone once pointed out to me that some of the online dealers offer special sales or no shipping costs just before some dips in prices.I recieved some offers from 3 different online dealers this past weekend on silver deals including reduced shipping costs and silver ounces at slightly above spot.Just a coinsidence I guess.
  • piecesofmepiecesofme Posts: 6,669 ✭✭✭
    I think there could be a few B&Ms that go under this year if the metals continue to weaken. All that money tied up. Eventually they will ahve to liquidate which pushes prices even lower, which results in more forced selling.

    There's no way the local B&M's around here will ever go out of business, not a chance. They only way they will close is because they make the decision to, but not because of any pm tanking.
    They've been taking (I could argue to use the word stealing) in coins from the ignorant public for years and years and are so far ahead of the game from doing that that a little dip in the pm's they hold doesn't affect their way of doing business whatsoever.
    They've all been around for years & years and they are all father & son operations. I'm just saying, there's a reason they've been around for years when other local small businesses have gone under due to economic pitfalls. It's called taking advantage of the ignorant. The public accepts it because they look at it from the point of view that they are at least getting something when they go to sell something at the local coin shops.
    To forgive is to free a prisoner, and to discover that prisoner was you.
  • CaptHenwayCaptHenway Posts: 32,115 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I don't suppose anybody has considered the possibility that if the conspiracy participants all knew that silver was going to go down they could just short some contracts to offset their physical position and then still have their physical available to sell when the dip brings out the buyers?
    Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The public accepts it because they look at it from the point of view that they are at least getting something when they go to sell something at the local coin shops.

    because the Public has never heard of the internet, for learning about Value, or EBay, for selling stuff for what it's really worth?

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • RedTigerRedTiger Posts: 5,608
    This is an amusing thread, to see the thinking of some market participants, and how their minds take data and reach conclusions.

    If those dealers were so smart they wouldn't be at a weekend coin show trying to sell a few bars for $2 over spot. They would be trading silver futures and making 10% a week.

    How about this for a simple explanation: before the show opened, a dealer or an early bird went to every table and bought up all the silver that was selling for lower prices. When the doors opened to the public, all that was left was at $2 over or more. Sounds far more likely than a bunch of weekend coin/bullion dealers having inside information. Sure some high volume dealers do have a good feel for the market. However, if they were really smart, they would offset with futures or dumped at a price that would be sure to clear out their inventory. As others have said, anyone that still held and didn't hedge could not be that smart or have any real good information. They still have their silver and it went down.


  • OnlyGoldIsMoneyOnlyGoldIsMoney Posts: 3,358 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I don't suppose anybody has considered the possibility that if the conspiracy participants all knew that silver was going to go down they could just short some contracts to offset their physical position and then still have their physical available to sell when the dip brings out the buyers? >>



    Conspiracy theory SOP calls for rejecting simple solutions in favor of the convoluted and fantastic.
  • CaptHenwayCaptHenway Posts: 32,115 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Over on my old dealer-to-dealer network, there is a buy on 10 oz. Engelhard and J-M silver bars at Spot +$1.50/oz.

    Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
  • piecesofmepiecesofme Posts: 6,669 ✭✭✭
    Whats even more amusing is how everyone here that has contradicted, tells their story in hindsight of what has happened. image
    To forgive is to free a prisoner, and to discover that prisoner was you.
  • slincslinc Posts: 480 ✭✭

    I guess I'll just keep buying, If it goes lower I'll get more when I buy. I suppose I'll only lose money if I sell so I'll try to avoid that.
  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    This thread should be pay per view as the entertainment value is high. I can't help but laugh. MJ
    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
  • CakesCakes Posts: 3,629 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>This thread should be pay per view as the entertainment value is high. I can't help but laugh. MJ >>



    It is pretty funny.

    BTW I just saw a newer stay thirsty commercial with fencing, etc... and it was funny as hell, those might be the best commercials out there. Maybe the next one should include some investment strategy.
    Successful coin BST transactions with Gerard and segoja.

    Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
  • mariner67mariner67 Posts: 2,746 ✭✭✭
    "Conspiracy theory SOP calls for rejecting simple solutions in favor of the convoluted and fantastic"

    Hey, paranoid people are common. I see paranoids around every corner!

    image
    Successful trades/buys/sells with gdavis70, adriana, wondercoin, Weiss, nibanny, IrishMike, commoncents05, pf70collector, kyleknap, barefootjuan, coindeuce, WhiteTornado, Nefprollc, ajw, JamesM, PCcoins, slinc, coindudeonebay,beernuts, and many more
  • Time to invest in more aluminum hats.
  • piecesofmepiecesofme Posts: 6,669 ✭✭✭
    Am I missing something? First of all, what's a SOP.
    If I'm the one being accused of being paranoid, I simply don't understand how that was construed out of anything I said image piecesofme is misunderstood again, go figure!
    But I lost where this thread went about 25 posts in anyway, nevermind.
    To forgive is to free a prisoner, and to discover that prisoner was you.
  • WingsruleWingsrule Posts: 3,010 ✭✭✭✭
    Standard Operating Procedure
  • streeterstreeter Posts: 4,312 ✭✭✭✭✭
    What's the frequency Kenneth?
    Have a nice day
  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>What's the frequency Kenneth? >>



    O no he didn't.............I never saw that coming. R.E.M makes a P.M. threadimage

    MJ
    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
  • People "in the know" are a myth, unless your work for JP.
  • SpoolySpooly Posts: 2,108 ✭✭✭


    << <i>People "in the know" are a myth, unless your work for JP. >>



    I thought Goldman Sachs was the top puppet master! image
    Si vis pacem, para bellum

    In God We Trust.... all others pay in Gold and Silver!
  • tneigtneig Posts: 1,505 ✭✭✭
    I had to wait a day or two just to join this forum to answer this from my semi-newbie point of view. Newbie in that a couple of months of hard experience, and point of view. But I've been paying my dues to learn. I certainly learned not to spend my hard earned money on over-priced anything at a "show or anywhere else." So you don't either. Read on...

    BTW, yes, Silver is the hot thing! Its hot hot hot. Silver fever time. Not everyone knows about it yet, but within the circles its the hot thing, and its growing. Buy .999 or .9999 and you know what you have. Morgans vary, certified varies, but an ounce of silver's value is as easy as looking up spot on kitco or conflation. If you are a newbie, go basic and cheap.

    Plus, it's still a precious metal, and one that everyone can afford. Gold came from a low value and had a long climb, and it could drop $800 on you before you notice. Ah but silver. Its the new working man's gold already. It certainly is for me. I can resonably afford and if the price dips, its not so earth shattering as a gold drop would be to the average joe. Its big in volume compared to gold. Its easier to understand and safer than the mistakes you can make with gold. Remember to stay in your knowledge range and silver is good for that.

    Its swingup potential is way better than gold, but its got an even better potential for the average citizen. $32 to $100 seems reasonable, and even more so, $200 to me. I see its curve doing better than gold. I can hold it that long, and don't feel my entire life savings is wrapped up in it like gold. I can survive the definite dips and not feel like I lost my pants. I don't care how far it drops now, because I'll buy more! I want it to, and so do you, no matter what you paid in the past. I know it will make good - but over time! The average person finally has a chance to put some savings % in precious metal, and thats good, for everyone and the country. You know why... and what's coming.

    When you realize a silver quarter is $5.xx sometime today, and that silver is used in jewlery, you can see it has some value. You don't have to know about mining companies and who's got the mines, or wether the capacity is less, meets, or exceeds capacity...
    You don't have to understand face value-bargins or rip off via coins. It just that a person can now buy silver in convienent forms, and its readily available in local stores, ebay, craigs, and online. And at a fair price. Just saying....

    With the economy, gas prices, and info about the falling dollar, it's not hard to hear about silver. Its all over. When you discover that the us is minting millions every year and from back as far as 96, along with all the private mints, its easy to conceptualize that people are buying and hoarding silver, so supply and demand makes it climb. You see the eagles, the rounds, the bars, the 2,5, 10 oz bars and more; your mouth starts to water. The biggest part of the new market share these days, is us folks, buying it ourselves. Not just in the us, but all over. Industry use is about the same, personal hoarding and knowledge is making it grow. A few articles and you realize other countries are worried about the same things with their fiat money and economy, and are buying it up -and gold. If you understand hedging with gold, you can see the same value in silver too.

    Its a market feeding upon itself and that's alright in my eyes, at a fair price... It will keep the value rising, and keep the precious metal in the hands of citizens, at least the smart ones. When the dollar tumbles further, and we know it will, silver and gold will hit the upswing again. This temporary dip in this election year is a good time to buy. I'm glad it didn't hit $40 plus again, yet. Stay low, drop another $10, I can't wait. I'll eat cereal all week, just to buy one more ounce when the price is low...

    For purchase costs, all I can say is, if they are charging more than a buck or so above spot, walk away. Silver fever is ok. Show over inflated charging is not.

    For the average person, just get the plain old rounds or bars of .999. Not less, not commemoratives, etc. If spot is 32.50, its ok to pay $1.50 more, so at $34. If its more, go somewhere else. You can do it on-line, say at apmex when they have one of their frequent $1 over sales. Match it to a dip in the market, use a check and you have a good deal. If your order is small, combine with a friend and share the shipping. Find a local store or shop that sells for $1, or tiny bit more over spot, or leave. They are out there, and so are the stores and shows that charge more.... Make a good choice. Expect to pay a buck or two additional for eagles. If they try to sell you an eagle today for $40+ or more. Leave the place. Dealers, you'll do better in the long run selling more at a fair price.

    In general, If they sell for more at a show, don't be tempted, get some supplies, folder, tubes and save your money for a better deal. If they are getting $3+ oz over or more at a show for basic silver, its because folks are crazy enough to pay it (sorry). I'm not. Don't you be either. Enjoy looking at it, leave the show, and buy/bargain it close to your house in a local store or on craigs list from someone you trust.

    Now, for those a bit more savy, you know what's worth more, I don't have to tell you. Engelhart bars sell for more, if that's what you wish to buy. I hope you can find that extra premium on the flip side later on.... humm... Larger amounts, 5oz, 10oz+, more!, look for the sales on Apmex, that have a minimun over. Find a good store, and you be seeing the bargins come and go with what they get recently. Wait for the bargins and don't buy anything else. And please don't take any chances. For the beginner, you don't need proofs or certified, because you likely won't buy the right kind that will give you that back on the sell time. You want cheap rounds and the best price on silver eagles. Let the experienced folks buy the fancier kind, because they know what to get, maybe... Get a couple of nice shinny proofs for $59 bucks to enjoy, and use the rest of your $ on the cheap basic rounds or bars.

    I'll buy some bigger bars, if the price is right, using the same logic. If its over what I told you per oz, don't buy it. You should be able to get a cheaper premium for larger bars, not more.

    Its silver fever time. Thats all. But thats good too.
    The regular person can get in on this bandwagon time, and the more the public has silver, the better for everyone. Of course, the government is keeping a close eye. Suck you in by letting you buy, keeping track of online and taxed purchases, then bammm, come up with new taxes and sur-charges on selling later on. Well, that is... if they know...

    Buy.., expecting some dips and low times, hold on and keep it for 10-15 years and sell off some when its very high, even when you don't need the cash. Use it during your retirement. Enjoy it being $100 plus or $200 or more an oz. Keep what you have quiet, safe, and private. Shows can sell for higher prices, but that doesn't mean you have to buy. If there is any left, try it at the end of the show for the bargin price, but if not go home. There's plenty more around. Shows should have a fair bargin, even during silver fever...
    COA
  • mariner67mariner67 Posts: 2,746 ✭✭✭


    << <i>What's the frequency Kenneth? >>



    Again!!!

    image
    Successful trades/buys/sells with gdavis70, adriana, wondercoin, Weiss, nibanny, IrishMike, commoncents05, pf70collector, kyleknap, barefootjuan, coindeuce, WhiteTornado, Nefprollc, ajw, JamesM, PCcoins, slinc, coindudeonebay,beernuts, and many more
  • streeterstreeter Posts: 4,312 ✭✭✭✭✭
    tneig
    Its swingup potential is way better than gold, but its got an even better potential for the average citizen. $32 to $100 seems reasonable, and even more so, $200 to me. I see its curve doing better than gold. I can hold it that long, and don't feel my entire life savings is wrapped up in it like gold. I can survive the definite dips and not feel like I lost my pants. I don't care how far it drops now, because I'll buy more! I want it to, and so do you, no matter what you paid in the past. I know it will make good - but over time! The average person finally has a chance to put some savings % in precious metal, and thats good, for everyone and the country. You know why... and what's coming.

    My bold.

    Question ---how do you know $32----->>>>>>$200?

    and....

    PM's are 'dead' money. How is this 'good' for the country?


    AND....

    if spot is $32, where do I get a refined ounce for $32?

    and....


    What's the frequency Kenneth?

    Have a nice day
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,822 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Its silver fever time. Thats all. But thats good too.
    The regular person can get in on this bandwagon time, and the more the public has silver, the better for everyone.


    Dang. A sell signal.

    Welcome, tneig!image
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,100 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Its silver fever time. Thats all. But thats good too.
    The regular person can get in on this bandwagon time, and the more the public has silver, the better for everyone.


    Dang. A sell signal.

    Welcome, tneig!image >>




    Very possibly. When everyone owns silver, there will no longer be buyers.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • streeterstreeter Posts: 4,312 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The few people buying silver at $100 are those that think it's on the way to $200. Very few I would think.

    Few industrial users are out there at $100+.

    At 50/1 with AG at $100, I'll be happy with my gold at $5,000. I'll finally be able to afford cable TV.
    Have a nice day
  • tneigtneig Posts: 1,505 ✭✭✭
    I just wanted to make a dramatic first impression.... (I don't know what the heck I'm talking about.)

    The run on about the show thing is that it is definitely silver fever right now. (Dealers have a right to make a buck more, and the buyer doesn't have to. ...) Its all fun. Both sides are jumping on the bandwagon. It got me into appreciating coins too so I'm happy.

    I do feel Silver has a lot of potential and like its value/cost better. And, its still better odds then hiding cash in the mattress.
    Plus if it all goes to hell, I can use the rounds for sinkers or coasters. I'll always save two Morgans to cover my eyes.

    oh btw.
    I only meant that you can get silver (coins or rounds, bars, etc.) fairly, a bit below spot if you bargin with individuals, say from craigslist or via friends. If you offer them a close fair deal, thats ok. If you offer too low, its an insult and the wall goes up. Most folks, even dealers selling like that just want to move the stuff and make some money. If it isn't lower on a personal deal, its ok to pass it up and go to the next.
    COA
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