Who will win the 2012 Presidential election? (& what will gold do?) Vote in the poll & ente

Baley

After voting (for what you predict Will happen, not necessarily what you Want to happen),
reply in the thread on how you'd allocate your bets if you had $100 and the odds were:

Obama 3 to 1 -- now 6 to 5 --- now 10 to 11-- now 1 to 2 -- now 3 to 4
Romney 4 to 1 -- now 7 to 1 -- now 3 to 1 -- now 5 to 2
Gingrich 5 to 1 -- now 8 to 1 -- now 4 to 1 -- now 20 to 1
Santorum 10 to 1 -- now 14 to 1 -- now 20 to 1 -- now 4 to 1
Paul 15 to 1 -- now 16 to 1 -- now 25 to 1 -- now 35 to 1
Surprise Name Republican 20 to 1 -- now 15 to 1 -- now 50 to 1
Libertarian 500 to 1 -- now 1000 to 1 -- now 10,000 to 1 Note: pays off if candidate wins a state in the electoral college
Green 1000 to 1 -- now 10,000 to 1 -- now 100,000 to 1 Note: pays off if candidate wins a state in the electoral college
Peace & Freedom 2000 to 1 -- now 20,000 to 1 -- now 200,000 to 1 Note: pays off if candidate wins a state in the electoral college
Other fringe dweller 5000 to 1 -- now 2000 to 1 -- now 50,000 to 1 Note: pays off if candidate wins a state in the electoral college

(odds updated with news flow and betting info)
Interested participants, let's give it until before the Florida Primary and then lock the guesses until November and see how we do. The odds will periodically change with feedback commentary, feel free to edit bets too, up to the eve of the FLA primary
(suggest keep the discussion about the issues related to precious metals; edit commentary if you need to to comply with forum rules against attacks etc, lets keep it polite)

Justacommeman

Obama. All $100. MJ

slinc

$60 Gingrich $40 Romney. I personally don't believe this narrative that Obama is a strong bet for reelection. I think gold rises regardless.

gsa1fan

Newt Gingrich all in $100

pitboss

Gingrich 90

Romney and Santorum 5 each

If by some weird fluke Obama gets in we are all screwed but we will have earned it for voting for him after what he gas done to the country.

DrBuster

Picked Newt so I'd say $90 him, $10 on Oblaba. Don't count the class warfare sheeple out of the vote, which is unfortunately sad as they are blind to the true nature of economics and finance and what the first 2 years of the current admin has done (or hasn't).

Gold up no matter what. The things needed to make that not happen are just flat out not going to be in play on the world scene any time soon.

roadrunner

<< <i>Obama. All $100. MJ >>



Agreed. The more the repubs debate the less likely any candidate can challenge the incumbent. For the Dems this is like free campaign money.

DrBuster

<< <i>

<< <i>Obama. All $100. MJ >>



Agreed. The more the repubs debate the less likely any candidate can challenge the incumbent. For the Dems this is like free campaign money. >>



$2 billion in re-election money currently will buy A LOT of votes too.

ricko

$80 on Romney, $20 on Gingrich. Cheers, RickO

mhammerman

I'm going with $100 for a republican candidate to be named later at 20:1...Baby, daddy needs some new shoes!

cohodk

I agree with MJ.

OPA

<< <i>I agree with MJ. >>



Unfortunately.....likewise

gsa1fan

I can't believe yalls voting for BO

derryb

agree with OPA.

Same as last elections, Repubs can't come up with a real candidate that can win. The pathetic thing is that it really shouldn't be that hard to do! We're doomed!

nibanny

Obama.
But I would put $10 on Paul, just in case...

timcoin

Afraid if Romney gets the nomination that he will be the GOP version of John Kerry. Former employees of his will come out with ads about how they were fired, blah, blah, blah.

Newt...all in as well.

pragmaticgoat

$100 for Paul otherwise it's business as usual and that's what I'm positioned for.

epcjimi1

75 BO, 25 Romney.

I ain't voting BO, just betting what I think will happen.

gold will go up

Staircoins

It's terrible to see the GOP tear itself apart in the primaries.

Would that I had a chance to actually vote FOR someone, instead of picking the least of the worst.

One thing is certain - plenty of mud will be slung between now and November.

cohodk

To further...

I believe whomever is elected President will go down as the worse this country has ever known. Demographics dictate the economy. Governmental decisions can only grossly exaccerbate or silghtly lessen the effect of demographics.

Baley

Do wild manias fueled by greed, followed by cascading panics due fear ever have anything to do with it?

mbbiker

I'd go all in on Gingrich. Gold up no matter who gets in.

Kip

President Obama’s approval ratings are so low now;
Kenyans are accusing him of being born in the United States

pf70collector

Obama $100.

dpoole

Gingrich will implode. Obama has given up on governing. Gold will go up.

Romney.



Edited to add: That's pretty good, Kip!

57loaded

your odds on Obama are WAY, WAY to profitable to not put all $100 into Obama.

he should be a 1-5..maybe a 2-5 to get any "action" on dividing one's $100 wager.

gold? right after the election?...nada, zip, zero, nothing as long as #Obama up to and through the elecion.

also the SOTU tonight will be nothing but a campaign speech

Justacommeman

<< <i>I can't believe yalls voting for BO >>



I wouldn't vote for him but I know good odds when I seem them. Even at 4-5 it would be good odds in my opinion.

MJ

streeter

Obama's reelection is really a very, very simple math problem. Consider the following:

1) Blacks will vote for Obama blindly. Period. Doesn't matter what he does. It's a race thing. He's one of us,

2) College educated women will vote for Obama. Though they will be offended by this, they swoon at his oratory. It's really not more complex than that,

3) Liberals will vote for Obama. He is their great hope,

4) Democrats will vote for Obama. He is the leader of their party and his coat tails will carry them to victory nationwide,

5) Hispanics will vote for Obama. He is the path to citizenship for those who are illegal and Hispanic leaders recognize the political clout they carry in the Democratic Party,

6) Union members will vote overwhelmingly for Obama. He is their key to money and power in business, state and local politics,


7) Big Business will support Obama. They already have. He has almost $1 Billion dollars in his reelection purse gained largely from his connections with Big Business and is gaining more every day. Big Business loves Obama because he gives them access to taxpayer money so long as they support his social and political agenda,

8) The media love him. They may attack the people who work for him, but they love him. After all, to not love him would be racist,

9) Most other minorities and special interest groups will vote for him. Oddly, the overwhelming majority of Jews and Muslims will support him because they won't vote Republican. American Indians will support him. Obviously (reference deleted) tend to vote Democratic. And lastly,

10) Approximately half of independents will vote for Obama. And he doesn't need anywhere near that number because he has all of the groups previously mentioned. The President will win an overwhelming victory in 2012.

-- Dr. Walter Williams

AND there you have it.

JimDepot

Obama $100

If Romney or Gingrich win, the policies stay the same and I still win (lose?).

Ron Paul 2012.

Baley

ok, the oddsmakers are getting the message! See new revised odds

Kip

The term "Illegal aliens" has been changed to "Undocumented Democrats"

Justacommeman

<< <i>ok, the oddsmakers are getting the message! See new revised odds >>



We were just Obama'd! MJ

57loaded

if you consider him a favorite, his payoff should be less than $100 win for $100 wagered (considering 0 fees...lol)

1-5 you still get your $100 back + $40

your 6-5 nets $120 on a $100 wager (pays $220)

pf70collector

2) College educated women will vote for Obama. Though they will be offended by this, they swoon at his oratory. It's really not more complex than that,

One of my doctor's, who is female thinks Obama is bad for this country.

He may be a chance of getting my SS. A Dem won't let the Repubs touch it. Need to make it to at least another 5 years to 55 and hopefully the gov't won't mess with it. at 55. We shall see. A Republican will dismantle it. 35 years paying it to it, don't want it to go down the drain.

mrearlygold

If Ron Paul doesn't get the nomination I'm betting the ranch on 4 more years of obama no matter what his name is.

mrearlygold

<< <i>President Obama’s approval ratings are so low now;
Kenyans are accusing him of being born in the United States >>

curly

All in for Obama.

secondrepublic

Obama will not get reelected unless the unemployment rate and economy signficantly improve before Election Day. I am betting that won't happen. It'll be Romney in 2012.

Kip

Over five thousand years ago, Moses said to the children of Israel, "Pick up your shovels, mount your asses and camels, and I will lead you to the Promised Land."
Nearly 75 years ago, (when Welfare was introduced) Roosevelt said, "Lay down your shovels, sit on your asses, and light up a Camel, this is the Promised Land."
Today, Congress has stolen your shovel, taxed your asses, raised the price of Camels and mortgaged the Promised Land!

derryb

The winner will be the one who has the most voters turn out on Nov. 2. I think it is safe to say the Democrats will outnumber the Republicans on this matter. Sad, but true!

Goldbully

I'm already gagging watching this President make his speech....how many times will he say "fair share?"


edited to add: Nice to see jack in the box Pelosi out of the picture!!!

Overdate

Surprise name Republican.

It's a long shot, but IMO not a 20-1 long shot. Too many alleged Republican "front-runners" have faded in the last few months, and support for the current front-runners is shallow. Anything could happen between now and election day.

VikingDude

$100 all in for Obama.

OnlyGoldIsMoney

0bama will win re-election.

Any Republican will have two opponents - 0bama and the MSM.

Markets will tank, money printing and gold will soar.

TheRegulator

Put me down for 80 on Obama and the MFM and 20 on Gingrich to cover.

Another thought/question.... The markets started to really tank in 2008 when Obama pretty much locked the nomination. Worst ever post-election day drop in 2008. Worst ever Inauguration Day drop in 2009. Let's say Obama is re-elected. Let's say there are the same market drops. What do PMs do? Do they behave like PMs or behave like paper?

derryb

<< <i>Put me down for 80 on Obama and the MFM and 20 on Gingrich to cover.

Another thought/question.... The markets started to really tank in 2008 when Obama pretty much locked the nomination. Worst ever post-election day drop in 2008. Worst ever Inauguration Day drop in 2009. Let's say Obama is re-elected. Let's say there are the same market drops. What do PMs do? Do they behave like PMs or behave like paper? >>


PMs don't need Obama, they have the FED and all the other dollar policy makers. Obama is just a photograph on all of their walls.

fishcooker

Don't understand the odds gibberish, as I'm no gambler. That aside, all $100 on Omama to win.

NumbersUsacom

<< <i>Obama's reelection is really a very, very simple math problem. Consider the following:

1) Blacks will vote for Obama blindly. Period. Doesn't matter what he does. It's a race thing. He's one of us,

2) College educated women will vote for Obama. Though they will be offended by this, they swoon at his oratory. It's really not more complex than that,

3) Liberals will vote for Obama. He is their great hope,

4) Democrats will vote for Obama. He is the leader of their party and his coat tails will carry them to victory nationwide,

5) Hispanics will vote for Obama. He is the path to citizenship for those who are illegal and Hispanic leaders recognize the political clout they carry in the Democratic Party,

6) Union members will vote overwhelmingly for Obama. He is their key to money and power in business, state and local politics,


7) Big Business will support Obama. They already have. He has almost $1 Billion dollars in his reelection purse gained largely from his connections with Big Business and is gaining more every day. Big Business loves Obama because he gives them access to taxpayer money so long as they support his social and political agenda,

8) The media love him. They may attack the people who work for him, but they love him. After all, to not love him would be racist,

9) Most other minorities and special interest groups will vote for him. Oddly, the overwhelming majority of Jews and Muslims will support him because they won't vote Republican. American Indians will support him. Obviously (reference deleted) tend to vote Democratic. And lastly,

10) Approximately half of independents will vote for Obama. And he doesn't need anywhere near that number because he has all of the groups previously mentioned. The President will win an overwhelming victory in 2012.

-- Dr. Walter Williams

AND there you have it. >>



You underestimate the fickle human being

NumbersUsacom

<< <i>The term "Illegal aliens" has been changed to "Undocumented Democrats" >>



Gotta Love that one

NumbersUsacom

<< <i>The winner will be the one who has the most voters turn out on Nov. 2. I think it is safe to say the Democrats will outnumber the Republicans on this matter. Sad, but true! >>



What about all those disallusioned Dems, do you really think theystill have it in them to get out and vote ?

Justacommeman

I found a Vegas book that has the following odds

Obama 10/11. We can call it even money
Romney 8/1

MJ