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Who will win the 2012 Presidential election? (& what will gold do?) Vote in the poll & ente

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  • sumrtymsumrtym Posts: 394 ✭✭✭
    All $100 on Obama, and the odds don't influence my decision. I play to win, and high odds and a loss is still a loss.

    And yes, I'm a registered Republican who will be voting Obama again this year, so don't discount those of us whom the Republican party abandoned but haven't bothered to switch to "Independent" yet.
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Allright, thanks! the odds are updated for this little game, open to suggestions to change them like an oddsmaker would. the intent is to attract some betting on all the slots, how high would the Peace and Freedom have to be to get anyone to put a buck on them? a million to one?

    anyway, I still haven't voted in the poll, will do that the night before the Florida primary

    this is the most interesting election in a while..

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • sbfinleysbfinley Posts: 357 ✭✭
    Obama is just short of a lock at this moment. A proper bet might be +/- 320 electoral votes for the winner. Or Obama -115 Electoral votes.


  • << <i>Allright, thanks! the odds are updated for this little game, open to suggestions to change them like an oddsmaker would. the intent is to attract some betting on all the slots, how high would the Peace and Freedom have to be to get anyone to put a buck on them? a million to one?

    anyway, I still haven't voted in the poll, will do that the night before the Florida primary

    this is the most interesting election in a while.. >>



    When the odds are too high to get money on a straight bet, bookies resort to using lines or over/unders. It could be like football, which most men are familiar with. For example, to get money to line up evenly on both sides, a favored candidate might be -5, meaning that candidate has to win the general election by five percentage points for the person betting to win their bet. A smaller margin means the other side wins. Other ways might be number of states carried, or number of electoral votes.

    For a real long shot like Peace and Freedom something like over/under on total number of popular votes might be something that attracts bettors. Take the number of popular votes that party received from the 2008 election and use that as a starting point for making an over/under line for 2012.

    Again, for those interested in tracking these odds as time passes, Intrade is a place where real people place small real money wagers on the election and other news events.
  • GoldbullyGoldbully Posts: 17,301 ✭✭✭✭✭
    And yes, I'm a registered Republican who will be voting Obama again this year, so don't discount those of us whom the Republican party abandoned but haven't bothered to switch to "Independent" yet.

    No true Republican would ever vote for Obama. Good ridance.
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭
    careful there, some of you, we're asking our kind, tolerant moderators to delete posts and/or threads that cross lines of hostility and personal attacks, it's best let's stick with the relative probability of events occurring and their predicted effects on precious metals, won't quote any borderline posts, in case you decide to use the edit feature..

    RedTiger, point taken, will continue to let odds evolve, it's interesting to hear people's thinking about relative probabilities of outcomes, since little in live is absolutely certain nor impossible.

    btw, sumrtym makes an excellent point about potential Independent voters, I'd extend that to both (all) parties. It's obvious who the dogmatic, black-and-white thinkers will vote. But a significant and growing Moderate Middle of critical thinkers, of voters who think in terms of issues and qualifications versus Group Membership, are going to increasingly determine the outcomes of events, imo

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • $100 Romney
    "When someone tells you nothing is impossible, ask them to dribble a football"

    MANY positive BST Transactions
  • Too soon to call it a sure thing.

    I'll put $80 on Obama and $20 on Newt. Too many Republicans with a gag reflex to Mitt... (and Newt is the more politically savvy of the two.)
  • All on Obama, in a walk.


  • << <i>And yes, I'm a registered Republican who will be voting Obama again this year, so don't discount those of us whom the Republican party abandoned but haven't bothered to switch to "Independent" yet.

    No true Republican would ever vote for Obama. Good ridance. >>



    My curiousity is piqued, what does a "true Republican" stand for, and against?
  • JimDepotJimDepot Posts: 958 ✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>And yes, I'm a registered Republican who will be voting Obama again this year, so don't discount those of us whom the Republican party abandoned but haven't bothered to switch to "Independent" yet.

    No true Republican would ever vote for Obama. Good ridance. >>



    My curiousity is piqued, what does a "true Republican" stand for, and against? >>



    For, everything good.

    Against, everything evil.


    image
    image

  • mhammermanmhammerman Posts: 3,769 ✭✭✭
    Still figuring out how you get to be "registered". If you vote in the primaries, you get assigned a party in case there is a runoff so there is no cross party voting. When the election comes, you can vote for anyone you want. So, how does one get registered as one party or another, maybe I'm missing out on something I should know.
  • WingsruleWingsrule Posts: 3,010 ✭✭✭✭
    Richard Pryor / Brewster's Millions


  • << <i>I found a Vegas book that has the following odds

    Obama 10/11. We can call it even money
    Romney 8/1

    MJ >>



    Vegas did so well in the Giants last week alsoimage
    UCSB Electrical Engineering....... USCG and NASA
  • The Quote of the Decade:
    The fact that we are here today to debate raising America 's debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a sign that the US Government cannot pay its own bills. It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial assistance from foreign countries to finance our Government's reckless fiscal policies. Increasing America 's debt weakens us domestically and internationally. Leadership means that, the buck stops here.' Instead, Washington is shifting the burden of bad choices today onto the backs of our children and grandchildren. America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better.
    Senator Barack H. Obama, March 2006!
    UCSB Electrical Engineering....... USCG and NASA
  • GRANDAMGRANDAM Posts: 8,505 ✭✭✭✭✭
    If this poll is accurate WE are doomed.

    I am calling to rent a bulldozer to start construction of my underground bunker image

    GrandAm image
    GrandAm :)
  • WingsruleWingsrule Posts: 3,010 ✭✭✭✭

    The fact that we are here today to debate raising America 's debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a sign that the US Government cannot pay its own bills. It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial assistance from foreign countries to finance our Government's reckless fiscal policies. Increasing America 's debt weakens us domestically and internationally. Leadership means that, the buck stops here.' Instead, Washington is shifting the burden of bad choices today onto the backs of our children and grandchildren. America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better.
    Senator Barack H. Obama, March 2006! [i/]

    Too bad this wouldn't fit on a bumper sticker
  • WingsruleWingsrule Posts: 3,010 ✭✭✭✭
    Several years later, he says that was a mistake.

    Oops, changed my mind...
  • gsa1fangsa1fan Posts: 5,566 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Richard Pryor / Brewster's Millions >>



    +1 = none of the above! IMHO - Joe the Plumber is more appealing than anyone of them.
    Avid collector of GSA's.
  • PokermandudePokermandude Posts: 2,713 ✭✭✭
    I'd vote for Ron Paul if I could!

    image
    http://stores.ebay.ca/Mattscoin - Canadian coins, World Coins, Silver, Gold, Coin lots, Modern Mint Products & Collections
  • DrBusterDrBuster Posts: 5,378 ✭✭✭✭✭
    HA, nice!
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Odds updated based on perceptions of last night's debate and after-debate appearances and punditry

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • telephoto1telephoto1 Posts: 4,892 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Obama's reelection is really a very, very simple math problem. Consider the following:

    1) Blacks will vote for Obama blindly. Period. Doesn't matter what he does. It's a race thing. He's one of us,

    2) College educated women will vote for Obama. Though they will be offended by this, they swoon at his oratory. It's really not more complex than that,

    3) Liberals will vote for Obama. He is their great hope,

    4) Democrats will vote for Obama. He is the leader of their party and his coat tails will carry them to victory nationwide,

    5) Hispanics will vote for Obama. He is the path to citizenship for those who are illegal and Hispanic leaders recognize the political clout they carry in the Democratic Party,

    6) Union members will vote overwhelmingly for Obama. He is their key to money and power in business, state and local politics,


    7) Big Business will support Obama. They already have. He has almost $1 Billion dollars in his reelection purse gained largely from his connections with Big Business and is gaining more every day. Big Business loves Obama because he gives them access to taxpayer money so long as they support his social and political agenda,

    8) The media love him. They may attack the people who work for him, but they love him. After all, to not love him would be racist,

    9) Most other minorities and special interest groups will vote for him. Oddly, the overwhelming majority of Jews and Muslims will support him because they won't vote Republican. American Indians will support him. Obviously (reference deleted) tend to vote Democratic. And lastly,

    10) Approximately half of independents will vote for Obama. And he doesn't need anywhere near that number because he has all of the groups previously mentioned. The President will win an overwhelming victory in 2012.

    -- Dr. Walter Williams

    AND there you have it. >>



    I hate to say it, but $50 BO, $30 Mitt, $20 Newt.
    The Republican candidates take too much time pounding on each other and not enough time talking about issues...
    ...and the liberal media absolutely loves it, replaying the squabbles in sound bite form constantly.

    I agree with the Walter Williams quote entirely... but, that said, Herman Cain as a Republican VP candidate could make things interesting. Note that he hasn't endorsed anyone.

    Personally I think Santorum is the most moral candidate but I also think that he's the least electable of the top 3.

    Gingrich would likely make the most effective President of the top 3 imo...

    But realistically, Romney imo is the only one who stands a decent shot of pulling away moderates and independents from the other side.
    I also think he is the closest to a RINO out of the bunch- but if he's nominated I'll hold my nose and vote for him.

    Ron Paul flat out isn't electable due to his isolationist foreign policy, but on some level I can't help but like the guy...

    Oh...and gold goes up regardless of the winner, but highest under BO.

    RIP Mom- 1932-2012
  • jmbjmb Posts: 594 ✭✭✭
    Unfortunately, Obama will be reelected. $80 on Obama.

    I'll be voting for Ron Paul, even if I have to write his name in. $20 on Paul.

    I would vote for Obama before I would ever vote for Santorum. I can't stand him.

    Only person I think can beat Obama is Hillary. Keep your friends close, keep your enemies closer.
  • GoldbullyGoldbully Posts: 17,301 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I would vote for Obama before I would ever vote for Santorum. I can't stand him.

    That makes us even, I can't stand Obama.
    I guess good upstanding conservative values have no place in your world.
  • jmbjmb Posts: 594 ✭✭✭
    Yes they do but Santorum isn't conservative. Medicare Part D, ready to bomb anybody & everybody, and did you hear his Freudian slip in Monday's debate ?
    "Mountains of aid" (to foreign countries). I don't think many caught that little slip.
  • PerryHallPerryHall Posts: 46,111 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I'd vote for Ron Paul if I could!

    image >>



    A true Republican would say the glass is twice a big as it needs to be. image


    Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
    "Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
    "Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire

  • EagleEyeEagleEye Posts: 7,677 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Earlier this year I read "Destiny of the Republic". It's about James Garfield.

    He was not even running for president in 1880. He was a campaigner for John Sherman. The Republican field was Sherman, the "financial guy", "Blaine from Maine" who was the perennial candidate, and U.S. Grant, looking for a third term.

    The Democratic field was Winfield Scott Hanc ock as the front-runner.

    Nobody wanted Grant again, Blaine was a has-been and Sherman was seen as too wonkish, so the balloting went on and on. No clear nominee. Then Garfield gave a speech promoting Sherman and wowed the crowd. They wound up nominating Garfield, who went on to win.

    I think the same thing could happen this year. If the nomination is not be won by Newt or Romney by the convention, someone like Jeb Bush could give a great speech and win the nomination.
    Rick Snow, Eagle Eye Rare Coins, Inc.Check out my new web site:
  • We don't necessarily WANT him to win, but it would be foolish to think that he will not win. 100% Obama.
    Successful transactions with: DCarr, Meltdown, Notwilight, Loki, MMR, Musky1011, cohodk, claychaser, cheezhed, guitarwes, Hayden, USMoneyLover

    Proud recipient of two "You Suck" awards
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,822 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Random observations, since I have no idea who will be elected in '2012..........

    Obama's 2004 nominating speech for John Kerry was the first time he made me sit up and take notice. Sounded good at the time. (The same speech) sounds alot different now.

    This Republican Primary season has made it pretty obvious how the selection process is tainted by the media. If they don't want anyone to hear your message, chances are remote that anyone will.

    JFK would be considered conservative now. Joe Kennedy Jr. was Joe Kennedy Sr.'s choice to be President. Jack was the pinch-hitter.

    Does Ron Paul really think that if Iran gets nukes and ICBMs, it's not a problem?


    Added: Oh, I think gold will continue to do what it's been doing. Only more so. (It's about the dollar, and the bond market.)
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • Gallup has an excellent breakdown of the electoral map at
    http://www.gallup.com/poll/152372/Obama-Approval-Above-States-2011.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=syndication&utm_content=morelink&utm_term=Politics
    link
    >>
    well-positioned in the states in which his approval rating was above 50% last year, including three of the larger states in California, New York, and Illinois. The states with majority approval of Obama in 2011 account for 159 electoral votes ...

    On the other hand, states in which his approval rating was below 40% seem less likely to recover enough to allow Obama to claim their electoral votes this fall. Those states account for 153 electoral votes.

    the key to Obama's winning a second term lies in the states whose approval rating is in the 40% range, which account for the remaining 226 electoral votes and include traditional "swing states" such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. Obama won the vast majority of these states in 2008.
    >>

    In Florida, big unions deployed $1m against Romney in the primary. Not sure how far ahead the unions were thinking. News of union money probably pushed Republicans primary voters towards Romney, much more than that ad buy in a big state like Florida.
  • Since 1980 ...Aw yes, The Regan years.

    image
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,014 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I'm going to wait and see before I vote.


    We may see Mitt in the office if he doesn't super sleaze-i-fy himself.


    If the economy turns up more, we may see Obama with a less-of-a-political sleaze win.


    hard for me to say right now.
    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • GoldbullyGoldbully Posts: 17,301 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>The GOP seems to be a bunch of fools. Too bad. Has the world come to this. Religion Sucks and starts wars. Im sorry, but the GOP is a bunch of fools, with an insane Tea Party that should be in the 50's. The occupy movement is proof that our values are diferent than the 50's, 70's and 80's >>




    You sound like a wonderful person.
    Yeah, that occupy movement is a real winner....me and my Mom are going to do a clean up and help those 99r's.
    The Tea Party is a good thing for our country....who doesn't like tea? image


  • << <i>The GOP seems to be a bunch of fools. Too bad. Has the world come to this. Religion Sucks and starts wars. Im sorry, but the GOP is a bunch of fools, with an insane Tea Party that should be in the 50's. The occupy movement is proof that our values are diferent than the 50's, 70's and 80's

    reply:
    You sound like an immature radical uncontrollable teenager living in Mom's basement or attic.
    >>



    This exchange is an example of why political discussions tend to be so utterly pointless on the Internet, and why for the most part, I avoid them. I wish these kind of exchanges were uncommon, but it is very common. The name calling is early and often. I find that otherwise reasonable people get emotional and use vicious language when politics or religion gets discussed. Basic facts and assumptions can not be agreed upon in the day and age of narratives, leaving little common ground for reasonable debate.
  • gsa1fangsa1fan Posts: 5,566 ✭✭✭
    I would settle for reasonable candidates. All I see is same ole same ole. The biggest $$ spender gets the votesimage
    Avid collector of GSA's.
  • DrBusterDrBuster Posts: 5,378 ✭✭✭✭✭
    And the thread goes boom.
  • streeterstreeter Posts: 4,312 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i> thank you. >>



    SINCERELY, EINSTEIN
    Have a nice day
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I'm going to ask right here, one time, for the writers of the above quotes in streeter's posts to edit their posts and delete that content that is over the line and breaks the Forum Rules posted at the top of the main US coin forum, and once they've done that, for streeter to edit his post to erase the quotes. If that doesn't happen, we will request the mods lock the thread and consider suspending some posting privileges. We get a lot of leeway over here on the PM forum, and have low tolerance for those who would ruin it. Keep it polite.

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • mhammermanmhammerman Posts: 3,769 ✭✭✭
    Where's that bammer thingy?


  • << <i>I'm going to ask right here, one time, for the writers of the above quotes in streeter's posts to edit their posts and delete that content that is over the line and breaks the Forum Rules posted at the top of the main US coin forum, and once they've done that, for streeter to edit his post to erase the quotes. If that doesn't happen, we will request the mods lock the thread and consider suspending some posting privileges. We get a lot of leeway over here on the PM forum, and have low tolerance for those who would ruin it. Keep it polite. >>



    Okay, I will edit mine
  • TheRegulatorTheRegulator Posts: 1,217 ✭✭✭
    Where's that bammer thingy?

    image
    The Tree of Liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants. -Thomas Jefferson
  • It really doesn't matter who wins the POTUS. The ship has already sailed. That's why I just keep stacking.


  • << <i>Where's that bammer thingy? >>



    Bammed for having a different opinion...................priceless........German roots I presume ?
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭
    polite, well reasoned differences of opinion are interesting;

    hostility, name calling, offensive words and images, and personal attacks are not; in fact, they reflect poorly on the poster and discredit any nuggets of intelligence they may otherwise display

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry



  • << <i>polite, well reasoned differences of opinion are interesting;

    hostility, name calling, offensive words and images, and personal attacks are not; in fact, they reflect poorly on the poster and discredit any nuggets of intelligence they may otherwise display >>



    I never called anyone a name like Gold Bully Princess

    "You sound like an immature radical uncontrollable teenager living in Mom's basement or attic.
    Yeah, that occupy movement is a real winner....rapes, U.S. flag burning, destruction of property, violence, disrespect of this country, no message, and on and on.
    The Tea Party is a good thing for our country....you my friend are part of that "bunch" you speak of! >>

    That was his quote.......I never called anyone out......All I said was bring on the Tea Baggers so my gold and silver will go up.

    I see Gold Bully Princess edited his name calling....but it was too late. His little followers quoted his line.
  • But to get more on topic, Obama will win the election. Not because he's done a great job, but because the Republican Party has nothing to challenge him. You have a Religious Mormon, a Horny Wife divorcing Newt, another mormon, and Paul that is a good choice but some of his views are.....well .....well ?

    The POTUS is a figure head. It really doesn't matter who is in the position anymore.

    I'm very sorry if I offended any of you "Republican, Conservative, Religious, Tea Party, Christ Like, Fat, Wife Hates You, Kids Hate You, Ego Maniacs"

    Sorry Guys..........Now get back to your stellar lives that you live.
  • DrBusterDrBuster Posts: 5,378 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>But to get more on topic, Obama will win the election. Not because he's done a great job, but because the Republican Party has nothing to challenge him. You have a Religious Mormon, a Horny Wife divorcing Newt, another mormon, and Paul that is a good choice but some of his views are.....well .....well ?

    The POTUS is a figure head. It really doesn't matter who is in the position anymore.

    I'm very sorry if I offended any of you "Republican, Conservative, Religious, Tea Party, Christ Like, Fat, Wife Hates You, Kids Hate You, Ego Maniacs"

    Sorry Guys..........Now get back to your stellar lives that you live. >>



    Classy, again the thread goes boom.
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