An interesting bit of economic history from Martin Armstrong
jmski52
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Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I knew it would happen.
I knew it would happen.
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Gecko, if you took a minute to read the article instead of trashing my post, you would note that the article is 100% about the precious metal content in Roman coins over a period of centuries and is a fully-documented account of the devaluation of the Roman coinage.
Get off it. If you are going to attack someone for posting, at least know what you are attacking.
Let's see if THIS link works...
Have to go to Sinclair's site for the active link. (Sorry, that's the only way I could figure out how to link it.)
I knew it would happen.
Economics has become extremely politicized. A thorough understanding of any modern economy requires a consideration of the political decisions that affect that economy. As the economy becomes more center stage in our political debate, control over the perceived condition of that economy becomes more important to those that hold political office and to those that seek political office. One must always consider political influence on the source of all economic study, data and research when making investment decisions. This holds true for PMs, probably moreso than many other investment classes. While the actual condition of the economy is the result of political direction and decision, the perceived condition is the result of carefully manipulated data, research and reporting (by both the government and the "free" press). What we "think" of economic conditions will determine important elections. Important elections will determine the fate of our economy and the fate of our economy will determine the value of the precious metals we hold.
What' the saying about man repeatedly making the same mistakes and expecing a different outcome?
Thanks for the link, a priceless history lesson indeed.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Extremely OT and way political. Has no place in a metals forum....there isnt even a faint link between the two. >>
Inflation as a result of unfunded liabilities and the price of silver and gold are definitely linked.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>
<< <i>Extremely OT and way political. Has no place in a metals forum....there isnt even a faint link between the two. >>
Inflation as a result of unfunded liabilities and the price of silver and gold are definitely linked. >>
To keep people's minds off the unfunded liabilities, they had bread and circus. Same as today.
roadrunner
coins as the Republic aged. We have done well for some 200 years but without a
backing of a precious metal for our currency I see that the end of this government, as
we know it, is coming in the next generation or two.
Should make for great coin collecting as there will be lots of changes.
Since the world didn't end yesterday and probably won't end in 2012 we might have
a bit of a time to get us back on a silver or gold standard. Something needs to be
done.
bob
history does repeat over and over.. the details change, but the song remains the same
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
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I doubt that unfunded pension liabilities could bring down the United States. Seems like the Romans couldn't pay their
soldiers, but to suggest that paying teachers, firemen, and cops their pensions will bring down our country is a bit extreme to me.
For example, if the government can't keep their pension promises, then guys like Gecko and myself just get screwed, and we have
to retire at age 72 to help with our problem. But the apple, google, exxon mobil, and home depot workers will still be ok.
Can't buy the fact that we can even remotely do this. Excessive government spending can possibly do it, but not a few million dollars
of debt in some pension funds. No way.
To recap.....if every single government employee pension fund (from your local town all the way to federal) were to be 100% funded tomorrow morning.....a total of $1 trillion dollars would be needed.
If JUST social security was to be 100% funded tomorrow morning.....a total of about $39 trillion dollars would be needed.
Yeah, MY pension is whats destroying this country!
<< <i>I doubt that unfunded pension liabilities could bring down the United States. Seems like the Romans couldn't pay their
soldiers, but to suggest that paying teachers, firemen, and cops their pensions will bring down our country is a bit extreme to me.
>>
The Romans spent over 50% on the military which became unsustainable over time. I agree that the title of the article was somewhat inaccurate and inflammatory.
We do have an overall problem with entitlements though.
<< <i>
<< <i>I doubt that unfunded pension liabilities could bring down the United States. Seems like the Romans couldn't pay their
soldiers, but to suggest that paying teachers, firemen, and cops their pensions will bring down our country is a bit extreme to me.
>>
The Romans spent over 50% on the military which became unsustainable over time. I agree that the title of the article was somewhat inaccurate and inflammatory.
We do have an overall problem with entitlements though. >>
The title is not only inflammatory, but is at best political propoganda! I find it very offensive when people incorrectly throw me and my buddies under the bus even though the FACTS prove otherwise. For some reason, it has become popular practice to turn a blind eye to all the welfare abuse and costs and instead attack your local cop, teacher and firefighter. Since when has the problem shifted from those who do not contribute anything to society, and simply leech off the system to those who are the supposed "pillars" of the community?
Let's not argue and let facts get in the way. The unfunded CALPERS pension liability is between 500 BILLION and ONE TRILLION. That's CALIFORNIA workers covered only. Depends on whom you believe. I don't believe CALPERS officials, to be sure.
To make a statement that the unfunded total US public sector debt is equivalent to the high est of CALIFORNIA's alone---is beyond absurd. It's UNION PROPAGANDA unsubstantiated by facts.
resume arguement.
<< <i>nice link Jerry. I couldn't get it to work without horsing around. Finally.
Let's not argue and let facts get in the way. The unfunded CALPERS pension liability is between 500 BILLION and ONE TRILLION. That's CALIFORNIA workers covered only. Depends on whom you believe. I don't believe CALPERS officials, to be sure.
To make a statement that the unfunded total US public sector debt is equivalent to the high est of CALIFORNIA's alone---is beyond absurd. It's UNION PROPAGANDA unsubstantiated by facts.
resume arguement. >>
Data is about 2 years old, so the $1 trillion is certainly some number higher today......I will concede that much to you.
But whatever the NPV is right now on government pensions, it is simply DWARFED by social security obligations. So again, my pension is NOT the 600lb gorilla in the room. Carry on.
<< <i>I doubt that unfunded pension liabilities could bring down the United States. Seems like the Romans couldn't pay their
soldiers, but to suggest that paying teachers, firemen, and cops their pensions will bring down our country is a bit extreme to me. >>
Is is happening at this moment at the city, county and state level, but only because these entities can't print their way out of it. Federal level is covered by the printing press. The result of that is ruining the dollar and driving PMs.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
For those that want to know the truth out there....
http://www.lhc.ca.gov/studies/204/Report204.pdf
an eye opener.....not sugar coated.
resume argument.
<< <i>Let's not let the facts get in the way of a good argument.
For those that want to know the truth out there....
http://www.lhc.ca.gov/studies/204/Report204.pdf
an eye opener.....not sugar coated.
resume argument. >>
Do you dispute my claim that social security obligations dwarf public employee pension obligations? Cant WAIT to hear your response to that!
Its like a guy claiming that its his starbucks morning coffee thats killing his budget, right after he racks up $3,000 in designer clothes on his Visa. Keep your head buried in the sand Streeter. Its obviously a much more comfortable place for you.
On a personal level, I have contributed ...just a tad to SS...just a tad.... and I contribute for other people.
I will never see a penny of a lifetime of SS contributions.
Had you bothered to peruse the Little Hoover Commision report....you would have noticed that on page 26, it details how CALSTRS is at 50% funding levels and is approaching Zero.
Quess who gets to bail their sorry arses out. Not themselves. ME!
If SS goes belly up, I get zilch. If your pension fund takes a hit, the govt goes to the private sector to reimburse bad management and to recapitalize the fund. You can't have it both ways.
I'm through with arguing with grade school mentality. You're hopeless. Good luck to you. You are just interested in promoting your cause at the expense of being able to see the big picture.
<< <i>Phil my head has been out of the sand for 57 years.
On a personal level, I have contributed ...just a tad to SS...just a tad.... and I contribute for other people.
I will never see a penny of a lifetime of SS contributions.
Had you bothered to peruse the Little Hoover Commision report....you would have noticed that on page 26, it details how CALSTRS is at 50% funding levels and is approaching Zero.
Quess who gets to bail their sorry arses out. Not themselves. ME!
If SS goes belly up, I get zilch. If your pension fund takes a hit, the govt goes to the private sector to reimburse bad management and to recapitalize the fund. You can't have it both ways.
I'm through with arguing with grade school mentality. You're hopeless. Good luck to you. You are just interested in promoting your cause at the expense of being able to see the big picture. >>
So no comment on my question of which is REALLY the crippling factor.....public employee pensions or social security obligations? Ok, thats about what I expected.
And its the "print and pay" that causes inflation.....NOT a state or municipal underfunded pension plan.
If you dispute that, go back to square one and study Roman history.
If you don't think that there are any parallels between government overpromising and government overspending in ancient Rome vs. government overpromising and government overspending in the USA, then I can't enlighten you.
When you say that someone is throwing you under the bus, who would that be? Would it be me, if I refuse to support giving the State of Illinois or the City of Chicago a bailout because their politicians overpromised their public employees and then broke those promises? Or would it be the politicians who made those promises?
I had nothing to do with your hiring, your pension, the promises made to you, your elections or the mismanagement of your state finances. Don't make me the scapegoat for the problems that your guys created. Frankly, I hope you pinpoint the culprits and take it out of their collective hides. Unlikely though, given the recent elections. You make your own bed, you sleep in it.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>My OP didn't say anything about Gecko's pension benefits bankrupting the country, now - did it? No, it didn't. And Armstrong's article is dead-on as to government overspending and government promises eventually causing the constant devaluation of the currency, which in turn played a major part in the corruption and fall of Rome. How much more documentation would you need?
If you dispute that, go back to square one and study Roman history.
If you don't think that there are any parallels between government overpromising and government overspending in ancient Rome vs. government overpromising and government overspending in the USA, then I can't enlighten you.
When you say that someone is throwing you under the bus, who would that be? Would it be me, if I refuse to support giving the State of Illinois or the City of Chicago a bailout because their politicians overpromised their public employees and then broke those promises? Or would it be the politicians who made those promises?
I had nothing to do with your hiring, your pension, the promises made to you, your elections or the mismanagement of your state finances. Don't make me the scapegoat for the problems that your guys created. Frankly, I hope you pinpoint the culprits and take it out of their collective hides. Unlikely though, given the recent elections. You make your own bed, you sleep in it. >>
You open by saying your posting has nothing to do with my pension plan. Then you promptly imply the parallels between the two. Which is it? Nothing to do with, or parallel? Make up your mind.
It's there in black and white, Gecko. Read it.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>You open by saying your posting has nothing to do with my pension plan. Then you promptly imply the parallels between the two. Which is it? Nothing to do with, or parallel? Make up your mind.
It's there in black and white, Gecko. Read it. >>
Its also very black and white that the state, municipal, and even federal PENSION obligations to public sector employees is....by far.....dwarfed by the social security obligations of this country. So to start a thread that claims explicitly that the Roman empire was felled by its pension obligations to its public sector workers, and then imply that some sort of parallel exists today in this country is disingenious at best, and purely propoganda at worst.
At a time when 44,000,000 Americans are currently on food stamps (1 in every 7 people), you post this propoganda garbage that its the WORKERS who are going to bankrupt the nation? What in the hell is wrong with you? May I also remind you that a pension isnt some kind of "parting gift" given to us at retirement. Its a retirement plan that we pay into at the rate of 9.125% of the gross pay of every paycheck we ever receive as active employees. If the typical American put that much away for retirement starting at day 1, they too could retire with a modest revenue stream.
There are many problems with the finances of this nation.....the public sector pension plans is but a tiny slice. Is the system currently broken? Yes, and anyone who denies that is living in fantasyland. But is it the root of the potential failure of this nation? You'd have to be high on crack to believe that! In fact, there has not been a single government bailout to a public employee pension plan as of yet (that im aware of anyway). But we DID spend almost $1 trillion dollars a few years ago to ensure that wall street bigwigs could continue to live lavish lifestyles.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>It's about unfunded financial liability and it's road to ruin. Nothing more, nothing less. >>
And i'll agree with that 100%. But its not specific to the unfunded liability of government employee pensions. Would you agree to that?
<< <i>It's about unfunded financial liability and it's road to ruin. Nothing more, nothing less. >>
<< <i>And i'll agree with that 100%. But its not specific to the unfunded liability of government employee pensions. Would you agree to that? >>
Yes, I agree that it is not.
However, since you keep bringing up your pension (and the OP didn't), many state, county and city government employee pensions are underfunded because of two primary reasons: (1) poor fund management, i.e. investments being caught in the recent financial meltdown and (2) unrealistic pension promises by politicians to union bosses in order to get votes. CALPERS is the poster child for everything bad about public employee pensions. One cannot hide the fact that states, counties and cities are undergoing their own financial crisis. Public employee pensions are but one of their many expenses that have to come under the scrutiny of the people paying the bill. . . the taxpayer. I do not condone breaking promises to public employees (I myself, live on a public employee pension). I do support taking a close look at future promises while holding those that made bad promises accountable. In the end, the union boss will be the cause of contracting out your public service job. He has already arranged for many private sector jobs to leave the US. Your worst enemy is probably your union, not your fellow forum members who as taxpayers, desire control over the wasting of their tax dollars. Keep in mind your union would sell you out in a minute to keep a co-worker with one more day seniority fully employed, regardless of who is the most productive.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
But I wouldn't disparage the "entitlement" concept when applied to others or more broadly (i.e. social security system) because that would be pretty hypocritical, wouldn't it?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>If I were "entitled" to a pension, I'd probably defend my "entitlement" to it.
>>
What if you "contributed" to your pension, and foolish money managers/politicans broke promises about your "contributions" ?
<< <i>
<< <i>If I were "entitled" to a pension, I'd probably defend my "entitlement" to it.
>>
What if you "contributed" to your pension, and foolish money managers/politicans broke promises about your "contributions" ? >>
Excellent point. Most employee pensions were earned as part of the employee's compensation package.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Edmund, nobody said anything about paid-in, vested pension benefits nor did I imply that they shouldn't be honored. None of my posts implied any such thing! Rome didn't have a police or firefighters pension plan, or at least it wasn't part of the data in the article by Armstrong.
This thread was not, and is not about Gecko's pension entitlement. It's not about Gecko's personal politics. In fact, it's not about Gecko at all - as much as he'd like to make it that way. He has no business dragging a bunch of crap into this thread. None of Gecko's posts mention Rome, precious metals or even coins. Frankly, I find it offensive and totally out-of-line to trash a thread posted about legitimate and historical subject matter that is 100% relevant to coins.
I do hope that the mods will review this. If I can't post a well-documented historical article about money, precious metals and coins in a website that is dedicated to learning about money, precious metals and coins - without this type of harrassment - then I won't.
I knew it would happen.
It was written by Dr. Kenneth Harl, an old professor of mine.
Excellent point. Most employee pensions were earned as part of the employee's compensation package.
Well, if one compares the amount of lifetime Contributions in a typical pension plan (for example, $200,000 over the course of a career) with the amount of the Payments of the pension plan over the course of the retirement ($2 million or more) one can see that they are unsustainable pyramid schemes unless continually infused with ever-increasing amounts of money from other sources (for example, taxes on other people's incomes)
No doubt, those elite Roman soldiers went on and on about how much they "contributed" toward earning the gold coins they were receiving in that racket..
and perhaps someone mentioned how they "doth protest to much"
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>No doubt, those elite Roman soldiers went on and on about how much they "contributed" toward earning the gold coins they were receiving in that racket..
and perhaps someone mentioned how they "doth protest to much" >>
Even the emperor worried about their "protests".
<< <i>However, since you keep bringing up your pension (and the OP didn't), many state, county and city government employee pensions are underfunded because of two primary reasons: (1) poor fund management, i.e. investments being caught in the recent financial meltdown and (2) unrealistic pension promises by politicians to union bosses in order to get votes. >>
Actually, there is a third. Many States (I am not sure about local as local Government has to participate in the State pension here in WA State), balance their budgets by underfunding the pension plan. If they raise the rate required by the actuarial studies, the State would have to contribute more and thus would have to find another revenue source or cut into other programs to make their contributions.
I agree with gecko that the real runaway issue in the all the government budgets is the social programs. They are no longer a system to help you get back on their feet. They are a way of life and are expected even though the participants have hardly, if at all, paid in a dime.
<< <i>However, since you keep bringing up your pension (and the OP didn't), many state, county and city government employee pensions are underfunded because of two primary reasons: (1) poor fund management, i.e. investments being caught in the recent financial meltdown and (2) unrealistic pension promises by politicians to union bosses in order to get votes. >>
<< <i>Actually, there is a third. Many States (I am not sure about local as local Government has to participate in the State pension here in WA State), balance their budgets by underfunding the pension plan. If they raise the rate required by the actuarial studies, the State would have to contribute more and thus would have to find another revenue source or cut into other programs to make their contributions. >>
. . . or renig on their pension promises. As you point out there are many reasons for underfunded public pension programs, I only addressed what I considered to be the two most common themes when looking at the overall big picture.
<< <i>I agree with gecko that the real runaway issue in the all the government budgets is the social programs. They are no longer a system to help you get back on their feet. They are a way of life and are expected even though the participants have hardly, if at all, paid in a dime. >>
SS is no more a social program than gecko's pension. Both are funded by participants and it could be argued that both are ponzi schemes. True social programs are those that give other people's money to non contributor's, and we do have plenty of those. As you point out a whole new generation is learning that they are entitled to government support - many of whom know of no other way of life.
Getting back to the original topic, here's an interesting chart that shows the decay of the silver content in Roman coinage over time:
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
One question:
I don't have any reference materials available but silver dollars contain .7735 troy ounces of silver but a 1/2 dollar contains .3617 troy ounces. So, two half dollars were not really worth on silver dollar based upon the silver content.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Wealth in the hands of the few while the majority is poor just doesn't last very long. i.e. The French Revolution and the beheading of the Aristocracy.
Box of 20
<< <i>Yes, I already know the site. However, if the US was based on the gold/silver standard, a silver dollar was worth more than 2 - half dollars. I wonder why they were not equal? >>
Is it possible that it was irrelevent because the face value was worth more than the silver value?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I have a very strict gun control policy: if there's a gun around, I want to be in control of it - Clint Eastwood