Japan's devastation and it's effect on precious metals

Goldbully

What are your thoughts?
How can Gold and Silver not drift upward?
One sobering thought....the Japanese people are resilient and steadfast in their resolve.
I hate to say it, since they are not a PC/multi-cultural society, they have a much better chance for a speedy recovery/reconstruction.

God speed to these people!!

derryb

Disaster in Japan
(1) will hold oil down
(2) this will have a negative effect on PMs (their rise will be slowed a bit, if not halted)
(3) Japanese wealth will be called in to be used closer at home
(4) takes mid-east issues off the 6 o'clock news
(5) takes brewing Treasury Bond/national debt crisis off the 6 o'clock news
(6) a breather for US economic numbers manipulators

My prayers go to the many who suffer from this great tragedy. What nuclear engineer decide to put emergency generators in the basement along the coastline?

Moxie

My prayers are with the people of Japan.

Short term the tragedy likely pushes PMs down a bit.
Mid to long term, pushes them much higher. Japan is going to need money and lots of it. No way they buy more of our Tbills. And it's very likely they will sell off a notable amount of the $800 billion they currently hold. This will have a huge negative impact for our economy. No way we find enough foreign buyers - thus more Fed purchasing and ratcheting up the production of monopoly money.

derryb

<< <i>No way we find enough foreign buyers - thus more Fed purchasing and ratcheting up the production of monopoly money. >>


the well runs dry

gecko109

<< <i>

<< <i>No way we find enough foreign buyers - thus more Fed purchasing and ratcheting up the production of monopoly money. >>


the well runs dry >>






And....amazingly.....there are quite a few people here who dont think we have a serious problem in the midst! OR ??

jmski52

I was reminded that Japan has a much worse debt to gdp ratio than the US (over 200%), and to fund their rebuilding, they are very likely to resist piling more debt onto what they already owe. Their fledgling recovery (after 2 decades of no growth) simply can't take on more debt. They are much more likely to start selling OUR debt onto the market to finance their rebuilding. Not only do we lose one major purchaser of our debt, but we now have a major holder of our debt with strong incentives to liquidate our debt.

Tell me again why the dollar isn't going south in a fairly significant fashion?

roadrunner

Unusual to see gold taking a whacking in late night overseas trading. Would have to assume that it's associated with the Japanese fallout. Either that or the western banks that
have trading desks in Asia and Australia did not want to let an easy opportunity go unutilized.

roadrunner

Coins101

<< <i>What are your thoughts?
How can Gold and Silver not drift upward?
One sobering thought....the Japanese people are resilient and steadfast in their resolve.
I hate to say it, since they are not a PC/multi-cultural society, they have a much better chance for a speedy recovery/reconstruction.

God speed to these people!! >>



One thing I saw on National Geography’s special on the disaster was the fact there was no looting going on. Man, if this happen over here, any bets thing would be different?

Justacommeman

I will be in China until 3/30 and then I go to Japan on 3/31 for a week.....I'm apprehensive to say the least...................a little curious as well.............God rest their soul............................MJ

Stork

From the State Department:

<<The Department of State requests all non-emergency official U.S. government personnel defer travel to Japan and urges U.S. citizens to avoid tourism and non-essential travel to Japan at this time.>>

State Department Link

I don't know if this affects you plans...and it probably depends where you are coming to. I'm in Yokosuka, about 250 miles from the epicenter. Please note the part about rolling blackouts from TEPCO: TEPCO (english). Train service is being severely disrupted for us even here. Phone service seems to be stable as is the internet (or you wouldn't see me posting). I hope things are better by the end of March for travel but we have been told to expect disruptions for several weeks. All non-essential travel for the military is discouraged for example.


Cathy

CaptHenway

<< <i>I will be in China until 3/30 and then I go to Japan on 3/31 for a week.....I'm apprehensive to say the least...................a little curious as well.............God rest their soul............................MJ >>




Pack your lead-lined jock strap.

percyb

Japan will need to import more oil, not less, because the nuclear energy is shut down. They will need to import more copper and lead and wood and hard assets to rebuild their nation, imho.

OPA

<< <i>Disaster in Japan
(1) will hold oil down
(2) this will have a negative effect on PMs (their rise will be slowed a bit, if not halted)
(3) Japanese wealth will be called in to be used closer at home
(4) takes mid-east issues off the 6 o'clock news
(5) takes brewing Treasury Bond/national debt crisis off the 6 o'clock news
(6) a breather for US economic numbers manipulators

My prayers go to the many who suffer from this great tragedy. What nuclear engineer decide to put emergency generators in the basement along the coastline? >>



Well summarized, and it appears 1, 2, 4 are already in play today.

jsf

<< <i>Japan will need to import more oil, not less, because the nuclear energy is shut down. They will need to import more copper and lead and wood and hard assets to rebuild their nation, imho. >>



er uh, 'scuse me, but the last time I checked weren't they having trouble with scarcity of these products back at least to the 1920's and -30's? Seems that I also remember they started a bit of a skirmish in an attempt to hoard all these materials (and others) back then as well.

Of course Japan is not the only country facing such shortages, overpopulating as they go and overusing and misusing resources without any regard to the future. The fault does not lay with any one country, nationality, or race. The problem is seated much deeper than that. Look to your religions to save you. HA! What a friggin' joke. They haven't learned anything. I really wish they would, for the sake of our future generations.

Deny the truth. Censor the truth. You are better off being kept blind, ignorant, dumb, and stupid.

timrutnat

Whatever the case, sounds like more of the same coming:

The massive earthquake in Japan was almost certainly caused by powerful solar flares, explosive corona events that took place early last week. The corona mass ejection (CME) required three days to reach the earth, which was shaken by the extreme force. See the brief NASA article (CLICK HERE). Astro physicist Piers Corbyn gave numerous warnings about the threat of impact to the earth in the last year from unusual solar activity and related anomalies. Scientists from numerous countries have been following the activity, working together, in broad recognition of the risk. Some of the comments by Corbyn: "The massive Japan earthquake and tsunami were triggered by massive events on the sun and there are more to come in the next two years. The earthquake was preceded by an X-class solar flare and a significant hit of the earth by a Coronal Mass Ejection, reported by NASA. We warned after the New Zealand Earthquake on 21 Feb that the solar-lunar scene is set for more earthquakes for the next two years. Many of these earthquake events, as well as weather events, will be very extreme."

gsa1fan

Mayan predictions I think all them scientist are a little late or riding on coat tails

Justacommeman

On days like this everything is sold and pm's and oil are not exempt. A rush to cash. The Yen, Swiss and dollar are about the only things being bought. Carry trades are getting smoked............MJ

CaptHenway

On March 19, the Moon will be both full and about as close to the Earth in its orbit as it gets. Because of the stronger that normal tidal pull, this may cause problems.

57loaded

<< <i>On days like this everything is sold and pm's and oil are not exempt. A rush to cash. The Yen, Swiss and dollar are about the only things being bought. Carry trades are getting smoked............MJ >>



paper PM's are never an investment tool, being used to counter what is...i agree

link to some pictures of devastation and some geological and NOAA stuff

the link may have been posted in another thread, i dunno (from Boston Globe)

57loaded

<< <i>Japan will need to import more oil, not less, because the nuclear energy is shut down. They will need to import more copper and lead and wood and hard assets to rebuild their nation, imho. >>



as far as the fuel goes....you have to build a power plant first (unless you know of any "Chia Pet" varieties) before you can import the oil and i doubt Japan will go backwards. instead they will build better nuclear plants (IMHO) because they have zero domestic oil production

fastrudy

TextThe massive earthquake in Japan was almost certainly caused by powerful solar flares, explosive corona events that took place early last week. The corona mass ejection (CME) required three days to reach the earth, which was shaken by the extreme force. See the brief NASA article (CLICK HERE). Astro physicist Piers Corbyn gave numerous warnings about the threat of impact to the earth in the last year from unusual solar activity and related anomalies. Scientists from numerous countries have been following the activity, working together, in broad recognition of the risk. Some of the comments by Corbyn: "The massive Japan earthquake and tsunami were triggered by massive events on the sun and there are more to come in the next two years. The earthquake was preceded by an X-class solar flare and a significant hit of the earth by a Coronal Mass Ejection, reported by NASA. We warned after the New Zealand Earthquake on 21 Feb that the solar-lunar scene is set for more earthquakes for the next two years. Many of these earthquake events, as well as weather events, will be very extreme."

I'm calling this B***S**T! Flares don't cause Earthquakes.

yellowkid

<< <i>Whatever the case, sounds like more of the same coming:

The massive earthquake in Japan was almost certainly caused by powerful solar flares, explosive corona events that took place early last week. The corona mass ejection (CME) required three days to reach the earth, which was shaken by the extreme force. See the brief NASA article (CLICK HERE). Astro physicist Piers Corbyn gave numerous warnings about the threat of impact to the earth in the last year from unusual solar activity and related anomalies. Scientists from numerous countries have been following the activity, working together, in broad recognition of the risk. Some of the comments by Corbyn: "The massive Japan earthquake and tsunami were triggered by massive events on the sun and there are more to come in the next two years. The earthquake was preceded by an X-class solar flare and a significant hit of the earth by a Coronal Mass Ejection, reported by NASA. We warned after the New Zealand Earthquake on 21 Feb that the solar-lunar scene is set for more earthquakes for the next two years. Many of these earthquake events, as well as weather events, will be very extreme." >>



This sounds like an absolute crock! It's plate tectonics, which has, or have, little or nothing to do with solar activity.
This might be a good time to think about how we look at things and how we "plan" for the future. In the 80's all you heard was how Japan was going to eat our lunch and what a juggernaut their economy was. What happened??? Things seldom turn out as we expect them too, something I have said here before, and probably will again.

timrutnat

On March 19, the Moon will be both full and about as close to the Earth in its orbit as it gets. Because of the stronger that normal tidal pull, this may cause problems.

Are there any predictions as to where on Earth this could cause problems?

Overdate

<< Of course Japan is not the only country facing such shortages, overpopulating as they go and overusing and misusing resources without any regard to the future. >>

Overpopulating? Japan's population has been stable over the past 10 years, and is expected to decline due to its low birth rate.

Whether a resource is being "overused" or "misused" depends mostly on whether an a person agrees or disagrees with the way other people use their resources. To the extent that such "overuse" or "misuse" is real, it is a self-correcting phenomenon. Resource depletion results in scarcity and higher prices, encouraging more production and less demand for the affected resource.

Baley

Earthquakes happen when the plates slide relative to each other, usually along transverse or subduction faults.

This particular fault was "stuck" and overdue; whether the quake was triggered by solar flare or solar/lunar tidal action and/or other geological process is an interesting question

I happen to live near faults that slip frequently and mildly, and every time, I'm like, yeah, release that energy baby. If those tremors stop, would consider moving (or at least buying earthquake insurance)

57loaded

<< <i>If those tremors stop, would consider moving (or at least buying earthquake insurance) >>



interesting there was a 7 something quake there two days before, no one expected a 9 to follow.

CaptHenway

<< <i>On March 19, the Moon will be both full and about as close to the Earth in its orbit as it gets. Because of the stronger that normal tidal pull, this may cause problems.

Are there any predictions as to where on Earth this could cause problems? >>



No.

Baley

these plates have been sliding past one another for millions of years.. it's really hard to "expect" moment by moment behavior when seismic potential energy is accumulated and released in fits and starts. But you're right, in hindsight, the earlier smaller (but still big) quake might have been a "giving way" along this fault, and it might reasonably been expected to stop there for a while. But as that rock along the interface crumbles, Japan might be in for a few more big movements before the potential energy decreases again.
Hopefully those unfortunate people affected by this event will get a break, but don't be surprised if the shakes continue around the ring of fire

DoubleEagle59

It's plate tectonics that caused the earthquake and nothing else.

Additionally, the cities that bore the brunt of the tsunamis may be the best place currently in Japan to rebuild.

Why? Because after a 9.0 scale earthquake has released so much built up plate tectonic energy, I'd bet this location is 'safe' for 200 years from now.

cohodk

<< <i>It's plate tectonics that caused the earthquake and nothing else.

Additionally, the cities that bore the brunt of the tsunamis may be the best place currently in Japan to rebuild.

Why? Because after a 9.0 scale earthquake has released so much built up plate tectonic energy, I'd bet this location is 'safe' for 200 years from now. >>




Probably better than to build a city below sea level, along a major river next to the ocean.

BTW--Gasoline futures down 14c today.


I think there is a question here though about how PMs might perform in a globally devastating event, as many believe would/could/will happen.

pf70collector

he massive earthquake in Japan was almost certainly caused by powerful solar flares, explosive corona events that took place early last week. The corona mass ejection (CME) required three days to reach the earth, which was shaken by the extreme force. See the brief NASA article (CLICK HERE). Astro physicist Piers Corbyn gave numerous warnings about the threat of impact to the earth in the last year from unusual solar activity and related anomalies. Scientists from numerous countries have been following the activity, working together, in broad recognition of the risk. Some of the comments by Corbyn: "The massive Japan earthquake and tsunami were triggered by massive events on the sun and there are more to come in the next two years. The earthquake was preceded by an X-class solar flare and a significant hit of the earth by a Coronal Mass Ejection, reported by NASA. We warned after the New Zealand Earthquake on 21 Feb that the solar-lunar scene is set for more earthquakes for the next two years. Many of these earthquake events, as well as weather events, will be very extreme."

Sounds like the movie "2012" when the sun flares caused the neutrinos in the earth's core to heat up or something like that. Maybe that is why we had spent $240 Billion all in the last month. We are building arcs to escape the calamity in 2012.

Mesquite

"On days like this everything is sold and pm's and oil are not exempt. A rush to cash."

JCM. Your opinions keep good company - a quote from Jim Sinclair's blog ... "when the naughty house gets raided the piano player gets arrested as well".

jsf

Overdate posted: "Overpopulating? Japan's population has been stable over the past 10 years, and is expected to decline due to its low birth rate."


dude, I'm almost 60, how old are you, 12?

Go read the post made by a noted board member and coin expert about PERSPECTIVE and think about how it might apply here. Can you develop a working understanding of perspective?

Link to thread in U.S. coin forum

fwiw, that noted board member and coin expert CAN make a fairly intelligent post, ...when he wants to!

Overdate

Okay, I'll ignore the sarcasm and answer your questions.

<< dude, I'm almost 60, how old are you, 12? >>

I'm 67.

<< Can you develop a working understanding of perspective? >>

I think so. Earning three Masters Degrees along with having a career in technical and non-technical writing has given me quite a bit of perspective.

Here's an example of perspective from my earlier post: "Whether a resource is being "overused" or "misused" depends mostly on whether an a person agrees or disagrees with the way other people use their resources." In other words, "overuse" and "misuse" are value judgments that depend on the perspective of the person making those value judgments.

EagleEye

This is a 9.0 Earthquake, huge Tsunami, and nuclear disaster all rolled into one event. It is likely the biggest disaster on the planet in our lifetimes - anywhere.

Maybe not in terms of loss of life, thanks to earthquake proof buildings and early tsunami warnings, but in the huge scale of devastation. They are saying $80 Billion in damage, but I bet the true cost will be close to $1 Trillion, when it is all said and done.

How will Japan's new Conservative Government respond? If it was the old government (taking a cue from the bailout), it would probably guarantee insurance companies solvency and throw tons of money at those left without anything. Create tent cities and offer loans to rebuild. Will Japan borrow even more to solve these huge problems? That is not the current Government's way. They have been on an austerity regimen since they took over, just like our current Republican efforts to reign in spending. Will they change?

It's GDP will shrink, so even without any new borrowing, the debt ratio will climb. How does 250% of GDP sound without new borrowing?

This will be an interesting thing to watch.

This could be a tipping point for the world economy.

I think this is a game changer. A week ago, I would have said PM's are too high, now, I think they may be too low.

Bear

Easy money, large potential risks, inadequate nuclear energy technology, lack of the political courage

to tell the people the truth, about risk versus reward. Too many politicians on the take to push Nuclear

too few politicians that care, about the potential disaster waiting for the people.

Justacommeman

<< <i>"On days like this everything is sold and pm's and oil are not exempt. A rush to cash."

JCM. Your opinions keep good company - a quote from Jim Sinclair's blog ... "when the naughty house gets raided the piano player gets arrested as well". >>



For dollar bulls I would actually be concerned after today's action.

I was on a plane for five hours this morning and watched the dollar minute by minute tick by tick. At the end of the day it was VERY weak against the yen and swiss franc the other saftey currencies. The Euro even rallied against the dollar from mid afternoon on. Today the dollar should have been lights out as a flight to saftey. It was not. So what will it take for it to shine? In the face of adversity traders downed therir backs on the greenback. They bought treasuries, swiss and yen. They sold their biggest most profitable trades in silver, gold, canadian and aussie dollars. It's the same that ever was.

The dollar in my humble opinion really showed its true colors today and the reserve currency status is off the bloom...........

That Sinclair quote was great...........

Rick Snow I agree with your prose.

MJ

roadrunner

Considering the extent of this natural catastrophe, I think the nuke plants have held up pretty good so far. 9.0 quake and Tsunami waves? It was just last year we thought the oceans would be fully contaminated from an off shore oil rig explosion that was precipitated by mostly human errors, not nature. There is no such thing as zero risk energy until we either figure out cold fusion or harness solar energy on a huge scale. Until then, fossil fuels and nukes will have to carry the brunt of our needs. The US is not without major earthquake risk, it's just a matter of time. Could be <10 years, <100 years, or <1000 years. But eventually we'll get hit again. The Yellowstone caldera is "about due" for another eruption. But that could be a few thousand years or a few days. We do the best we can and take our chances. Nuclear energy is not risk free. But the track record in the US is pretty darn good over the past 30 yrs.

Can we design a nuke plant for a 10.0 or 11.0 earthquake and 100 foot waves? How about for a meteor hit? Probably not. The world had the common sense not to permanently shut down all off shore oil and gas rigs and abandon fossil fuels because of the Gulf of Mexico blowout. I don't think we're dumb enough to end nuclear power because of a one-off event.
No doubt the backup safety systems could have been more reliable and redundant. They always can be. But there will always be an event waiting in the wings that can take out all safety systems in any power plant, regardless of fuel source. We don't give all the acid rain/water/food we ultimately ingest a second thought. Decades of coal plant pollution raises little concern because the effects on humans can't be seperated from the numerous other risks we take such as from poor diets, pesticides, smoking, electromagnetic waves, etc. But when it comes to any additional exposure to radiation from nuclear power, that's unacceptable. I would submit that our diets bring >1000X more risk to the average person's life than nuclear radiation ever will. Yet we willingly pound down the twinkies and sodas that raise the risk of major disease.

roadrunner

CaptHenway

They just announced that the power company workers have had to abandon the plant due to increased radioactivity. There is nobody left to fight the fires and man the pumps.

CaptHenway

MJ---you gonna skip Japan?

gsa1fan

I'll take my chances with the "twinkies and sodas" RR. I have a choice with them. A radiation cloud = not so much!

You can't fool with mother nature!

In my younger days I worked in the oil fields of Oklahoma. That was 30 years ago. I wondered then if we pump all the oil out and use it up what fills in the holes? We have used no telling how many more millions if not billions of barrels of oil since then.

For every action, there is a equal opposite reaction

Personally I feel leaving unusable waste land/oceans to future generations much more horrendous than deficits~JMHO

Justacommeman

<< <i>MJ---you gonna skip Japan? >>



If there is still radiation concerns on the 31st I will skip it. Still haven't canceled. I did get a note from the State Dept suggesting not to go.


MJ

mrearlygold

Ridiculous already:

You have a forbidden word in your message post. Please click the back button in your browser and remove this word from your post. The words that are forbidden are highlighted for you.




<< <i>This is a 9.0 Earthquake, huge Tsunami, and nuclear disaster all rolled into one event. It is likely the biggest disaster on the planet in our lifetimes - anywhere. >>




AND they had a volcanic eruption ! Volcano in Japan Makes List of Problems Even Longer A volcano in Japan serves as a true example of overkill. However, the volcano is putting one more twist on the nation's trying times. Sunday, a volcanic eruption occurred in the southwest, which reportedly shattered windows up to four miles away. Hundreds had to evacuate to get away from the falling ash, but this weekend, evacuations and the rush to avoid danger has been nothing new for the Japanese. This is the fourth disaster, or potential disaster, to strike the nation in the last three days. The first two came together, as a historic 8.9 earthquake triggered it all and was followed closely by a tsunami. Then as the cleanup began, the "fu kushima" nuclear power plant became vulnerable and is still in danger of melting down Volcano in Japan Makes List of Problems Even Longer


The "censor" would not allow a word that the entire world will soon be familiar with.

"fu kushima"

timrutnat

The National Inflation Association says this disaster will bring hyperinflation faster to the U.S.

It is important to spread the word about NIA to as many people as possible, as quickly as possible, if you want America to survive hyperinflation. Please tell everybody you know to become members of NIA for free immediately at: http://inflation.us

Justacommeman

Wow. The Stock market comes unglued today and gold and silver held serve. Smoewhat impressive. The yen and swiss france continue to go crazy against the dollar in the safe haven arena. Fastinating stuff really. It looks like Japan is defending the yen and are getting help from the US intervening in the currency market. That's what I'm smelling. Selling dollars for yen and the swiss franc is along for the ride.......I don't remember the swiss franc being 10% higher then the dollar (1.10 ) in recent memory.

FWIW- the NIA kind of creeps me out.......................JMHO. MJ

cohodk

<< <i>Wow. The Stock market comes unglued today and gold and silver held serve. Smoewhat impressive. MJ >>




Until tomorrow. I bot a fairly decent amount of ZSL around noon today.


The currencies are all out of whack. I wouldnt be surprised if the YEN makes THE TOP during this crisis. With a stockmarket trading near book and a currency in the stratosphere, I see some amazing long term potential.


NIA=LOL


edited to add the YEN is absolutely exploding..............From Briefing.com ---The yen pushes to record highs against the dollar as Asian markets are hours away from opening; Yen hit 76.50 against the dollar before sliding back to 77.44


Im becoming even more convinced that this rally will prove to be the top 20yr YEN upmove. Perhaps its took a disaster to finally pull Japan from the clutches of deflation.

yellowkid

I live on my portfolio, so of course I pay attention to what is going on. Awhile back I decided to go to a 1/3 cash postion, I figured that would help me through any more stock market debacles without having to sell anything. This is the first time that I haven't paid much attention to the market drop, I guess the peace of mind is worth having a third of your money just sitting.

jsf

jayeffcee!

Why in the world would you want to earn three Master's degrees? Sh_t fire and save the matches!

It is so nice to find a learned person on these boards.

Justacommeman

<edited to add the YEN is absolutely exploding..............From Briefing.com ---The yen pushes to record highs against the dollar as Asian markets are hours away from opening; Yen hit 76.50 against the dollar before sliding back to 77.44


Im becoming even more convinced that this rally will prove to be the top 20yr YEN upmove. Perhaps its took a disaster to finally pull Japan from the clutches of deflation>

If it gets any stronger I won't be able to afford to go to Japan. This move is just SICK............On my way to GSA1's paradise............China. MJ

jmski52

FWIW- the NIA kind of creeps me out.......................JMHO. MJ



Yeppers, I don't mind reading all kinds of stuff. However - I'll do my own critical thinking, thank you very much.

Bear

When a Nation decides to tempt fate and choses to use nuclear powert with all of its unherent faults

with only a cursary node to modest unfortunate occurances, then the onus of sin lies heavy upon their heads,

money, power and greed are not replacements for the human heart, the human soul or the human spirit.