1. I could have just as easily used the 2008-W $25 Mint State Platinum with a mintage of less than 3,000 as my example and we would have no "smallness" issue to talk about. And, we might just find 3,000 people that care in the next 25 years (as opposed to the 5,000 figure that concerns you)!
2. Are there really 3,000 serious collectors out there for the MS67 1881-S Morgan in my comparison either after all these years (PCGS and NGC coins combined)? Honestly, how many serious Morgan dollar collectors exist today that want to pay the price for an 1881-S MS67 Morgan?
3. Your argument concerning all the super low mintage modern coins of the past few years (i.e. too many rarities already with more to come) ... couldn't you have made the same argument in 1936 and cautioned us against buying the proof set coming out that year with the mintage the Mint announced? For that matter, think of all of the low mintage proof coins coming out of the mint during all of the Barber years (and earlier). Your caution would have been just as appropriate for many of those coins back then as it is now with these great low mintage moderns - no?
WC, yes fun to debate these issues with you. Always interesting and enlightening...usually for me.
1. The 5,000 number was merely to match the pop of the $10 plat that you provided. Yes, I could just as easily use the 3,000 figure. And those 10,000 pops for surviving classic commems are for all grades, not MS65 grades where 300-1000 pcs per date/mint is probably the norm. There might only be a few hundred to a thousand full gem set collectors of commens. The rest buy designs they like as type coins. How many people buy a dated $10 plat for type? If that can be marketed as a type coin rather than just a set coin, they it could perform very well. But even a 1,000 of something all surviving in gem grade is a lot of supply these days with the supply of buyable US coins only increasing. When people say they aren't making any more of them, that's not entirely accurate. They aren't making any more gem BU Barber halves (pop around 1,000) but they are making 1,000's of other modern rarities to compete against it. And the number grows every year. The Gem Barber half peaked in price 20+ yrs ago. But at a pop of 1,000 it's not rare enough anymore to excite most new buyers (unless qualified with pluses and stickers). There probably aren't more than a dozen or two ch/gem set collectors and probably not more than hundreds of serious type set collectors than need one. My point being is that I don't think there are 1,000 people that need one. Several hundred MS65's are probably scattered around the country in dealer inventories looking for that one buyer.
2. MS 67 Morgan dollars are basically type coins. I'd swag that of the 3,000 or so pieces in MS67 currently graded (less my estimate for duplicates) that most of those are owned by type collectors, not set collectors. Maybe <1,000 pcs in sets, the other 2,000+ in type sets or owned by those who want just one or a couple superb Morgan dollars. There might be 500-1000 of those sitting in dealers' inventories right now. They are liquid and impressive looking coins where nothing in regular US 19th century coinage that old and in that condition costs so little. Hmm, I own only 3 slabbed Morgan dollars....all MS67: 1880-s, 1881-s and 1887. I'm not even a Morgan dollar collector and I bought those 3 pieces over the past 3 yrs because they were very nice for the grade and/or in older holders.
3. It's not the fact that the 1936 proof set or Barber proofs had similarly low mintages...but that there wasn't huge competition against those coins. Other than a yearly proof set in 1900 for $3.75 what else was there to buy for the regular Joe collector? Over the past 2 decades there has been a huge offering of different mint provided coins. And it seems to only be increasing with spouses, presidents, state parks, fast food franchises, etc. How many decades did it take for those low mintage commems from 1918-1939 to finally be worth something over face value? Will we have to wait decades for today's moderns to be worth something? (ie long after I'm gone). I don't think it's possible to ever produce the out of control depreciation of the dollar that was seen since 1931, the final key event being the floating of all world currencies in 1971. That is I don't think we'll get a 2nd chance as we seem to be doing just fine on this first attempt. Coins and collectibles in general are as valuable as they are today because of the 40 yr end game that is timing out where people have tried to find ways to protect their money since the mid-1960's. I don't think today's moderns will quite experience that unless we want to try and kill the world's monetary system for a 2nd time later down the road.
As you might have read, I had been thinking of this, but I pulled the trigger today and consigned the subject coin to the Stack's-Bowers inaugural sale in Baltimore at the end of March.
It will be sold without reserve to the highest bidder. Many thanx for your interest.
PNG member, numismatic dealer since 1965. Operates a retail store, also has exhibited at over 1000 shows. I firmly believe in numismatics as the world's greatest hobby, but recognize that this is a luxury and without collectors, we can all spend/melt our collections/inventories.
<< <i>It's a half oz. of gold....so it's worth about 600 bucks or so. >>
It is only a quarter ounce of gold. There were rumors of a 1 ounce specimen, but I have not seen it. No rumors of a half ounce coin.
PNG member, numismatic dealer since 1965. Operates a retail store, also has exhibited at over 1000 shows. I firmly believe in numismatics as the world's greatest hobby, but recognize that this is a luxury and without collectors, we can all spend/melt our collections/inventories.
I would like to see this coin alongside the 70's from NGC and others. NGC shows 10 I think and ANACS has done at least 25 and based on ebay I'd guess ICG has done at least as many as ANACS.
For those of you that were interested in this coin, it is up for auction, no reserve, at the Stack's-Bowers Auction, Tuesday, 3/29/11, lot 588
PNG member, numismatic dealer since 1965. Operates a retail store, also has exhibited at over 1000 shows. I firmly believe in numismatics as the world's greatest hobby, but recognize that this is a luxury and without collectors, we can all spend/melt our collections/inventories.
<< <i>As you might have read, I had been thinking of this, but I pulled the trigger today and consigned the subject coin to the Stack's-Bowers inaugural sale in Baltimore at the end of March.
It will be sold without reserve to the highest bidder. Many thanx for your interest. >>
<< <i>"One hundred years from now, today's moderns will be far more available in superb+ grades than coins made in 1910 can be found in MS65-66 today."
Well, yes and no. For example, there are 60,000 MS65 and better graded 1881-S Morgans graded at PCGS alone right now. There are roughly a scant (5,100) 2008-W $10 Proof Platinum Eagles in the universe in ANY grade. Even if close to half of these are perfect "70" grade, that means they are still 20x scarcer than that gem morgan (and about as scarce of an MS67 specimen). Yet, they sell for a fraction of the price. Just one of myriad examples of low mintage moderns that have an amazing future ahead of them. For an in depth review of many of the great (future) moderns, just pick up a copy of Eric Jordan's book from last year.
Wondercoin >>
Supply is simply just 1 part of the equation. There are EASILY 20x more collectors of Morgan dollars than platinum eagles. Rarity alone does not a good investment make.
The ANACS MS70's look like a bargain in comparison.
"My friends who see my collection sometimes ask what something costs. I tell them and they are in awe at my stupidity." (Baccaruda, 12/03).I find it hard to believe that he (Trump) rushed to some hotel to meet girls of loose morals, although ours are undoubtedly the best in the world. (Putin 1/17) Gone but not forgotten. IGWT, Speedy, Bear, BigE, HokieFore, John Burns, Russ, TahoeDale, Dahlonega, Astrorat, Stewart Blay, Oldhoopster, Broadstruck, Ricko, Big Moose.
Comments
It looks like any other MS69 out there! In fact, it probably looks pretty damn close to most MS68's!
The name of this game is the Registry Has Gone Nuts!
2. Are there really 3,000 serious collectors out there for the MS67 1881-S Morgan in my comparison either after all these years (PCGS and NGC coins combined)? Honestly, how many serious Morgan dollar collectors exist today that want to pay the price for an 1881-S MS67 Morgan?
3. Your argument concerning all the super low mintage modern coins of the past few years (i.e. too many rarities already with more to come) ... couldn't you have made the same argument in 1936 and cautioned us against buying the proof set coming out that year with the mintage the Mint announced? For that matter, think of all of the low mintage proof coins coming out of the mint during all of the Barber years (and earlier). Your caution would have been just as appropriate for many of those coins back then as it is now with these great low mintage moderns - no?
WC, yes fun to debate these issues with you. Always interesting and enlightening...usually for me.
1. The 5,000 number was merely to match the pop of the $10 plat that you provided. Yes, I could just as easily use the 3,000 figure. And those 10,000 pops for surviving classic commems are for all grades, not MS65 grades where 300-1000 pcs per date/mint is probably the norm. There might only be a few hundred to a thousand full gem set collectors of commens. The rest buy designs they like as type coins. How many people buy a dated $10 plat for type? If that can be marketed as a type coin rather than just a set coin, they it could perform very well. But even a 1,000 of something all surviving in gem grade is a lot of supply these days with the supply of buyable US coins only increasing. When people say they aren't making any more of them, that's not entirely accurate. They aren't making any more gem BU Barber halves (pop around 1,000) but they are making 1,000's of other modern rarities to compete against it. And the number grows every year. The Gem Barber half peaked in price 20+ yrs ago. But at a pop of 1,000 it's not rare enough anymore to excite most new buyers (unless qualified with pluses and stickers). There probably aren't more than a dozen or two ch/gem set collectors and probably not more than hundreds of serious type set collectors than need one. My point being is that I don't think there are 1,000 people that need one. Several hundred MS65's are probably scattered around the country in dealer inventories looking for that one buyer.
2. MS 67 Morgan dollars are basically type coins. I'd swag that of the 3,000 or so pieces in MS67 currently graded (less my estimate for duplicates) that most of those are owned by type collectors, not set collectors. Maybe <1,000 pcs in sets, the other 2,000+ in type sets or owned by those who want just one or a couple superb Morgan dollars. There might be 500-1000 of those sitting in dealers' inventories right now. They are liquid and impressive looking coins where nothing in regular US 19th century coinage that old and in that condition costs so little. Hmm, I own only 3 slabbed Morgan dollars....all MS67: 1880-s, 1881-s and 1887. I'm not even a Morgan dollar collector and I bought those 3 pieces over the past 3 yrs because they were very nice for the grade and/or in older holders.
3. It's not the fact that the 1936 proof set or Barber proofs had similarly low mintages...but that there wasn't huge competition against those coins. Other than a yearly proof set in 1900 for $3.75 what else was there to buy for the regular Joe collector? Over the past 2 decades there has been a huge offering of different mint provided coins. And it seems to only be increasing with spouses, presidents, state parks, fast food franchises, etc. How many decades did it take for those low mintage commems from 1918-1939 to finally be worth something over face value? Will we have to wait decades for today's moderns to be worth something? (ie long after I'm gone). I don't think it's possible to ever produce the out of control depreciation of the dollar that was seen since 1931, the final key event being the floating of all world currencies in 1971. That is I don't think we'll get a 2nd chance as we seem to be doing just fine on this first attempt. Coins and collectibles in general are as valuable as they are today because of the 40 yr end game that is timing out where people have tried to find ways to protect their money since the mid-1960's. I don't think today's moderns will quite experience that unless we want to try and kill the world's monetary system for a 2nd time later down the road.
roadrunner
<< <i>I realize that a seller has the right to ask whatever he wants for his merchandise. But pop 1 or not, shame on Julian. >>
Successful BST xactions w/PCcoins, Drunner, Manofcoins, Rampage, docg, Poppee, RobKool, and MichealDixon.
It will be sold without reserve to the highest bidder. Many thanx for your interest.
I firmly believe in numismatics as the world's greatest hobby, but recognize that this is a luxury and without collectors, we can all spend/melt our collections/inventories.
eBaystore
It's a half oz. of gold....so it's worth about 600 bucks or so.
<< <i>
<< <i>what's the world coming to when one respected dealer bashes another on a public forum like this?? >>
I consider Mark a friend and do not take his comments as bashing. >>
LOL
NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!!
working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!
RIP "BEAR"
<< <i>It's a half oz. of gold....so it's worth about 600 bucks or so. >>
It is only a quarter ounce of gold. There were rumors of a 1 ounce specimen, but I have not seen it. No rumors of a half ounce coin.
I firmly believe in numismatics as the world's greatest hobby, but recognize that this is a luxury and without collectors, we can all spend/melt our collections/inventories.
eBaystore
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>what's the world coming to when one respected dealer bashes another on a public forum like this?? >>
I consider Mark a friend and do not take his comments as bashing.
>>
Thank you, Julian, I am glad to hear that. And had you considered it bashing, I would have gladly apologized. >>
Here you go, brothers. Two class acts.
<< <i>It's a half oz. of gold....so it's worth about 600 bucks or so. >>
At least you're consistent and predictable.
So who knows what this coin is worth? I guess we will find out at the auction.
And, I do not plan to bash the coin, Julian, or Mark in this post!
An authorized PCGS dealer, and a contributor to the Red Book.
<< <i>It's a half oz. of gold....so it's worth about 600 bucks or so. >>
Perfect, I'll take all the dimes you are selling for their silver value of $2.11. After all they were just made for pocket change, right?
I firmly believe in numismatics as the world's greatest hobby, but recognize that this is a luxury and without collectors, we can all spend/melt our collections/inventories.
eBaystore
<< <i>As you might have read, I had been thinking of this, but I pulled the trigger today and consigned the subject coin to the Stack's-Bowers inaugural sale in Baltimore at the end of March.
It will be sold without reserve to the highest bidder. Many thanx for your interest. >>
I will be watching with interest!
<< <i>"One hundred years from now, today's moderns will be far more available in superb+ grades than coins made in 1910 can be found in MS65-66 today."
Well, yes and no. For example, there are 60,000 MS65 and better graded 1881-S Morgans graded at PCGS alone right now. There are roughly a scant (5,100) 2008-W $10 Proof Platinum Eagles in the universe in ANY grade. Even if close to half of these are perfect "70" grade, that means they are still 20x scarcer than that gem morgan (and about as scarce of an MS67 specimen). Yet, they sell for a fraction of the price. Just one of myriad examples of low mintage moderns that have an amazing future ahead of them. For an in depth review of many of the great (future) moderns, just pick up a copy of Eric Jordan's book from last year.
Wondercoin >>
Supply is simply just 1 part of the equation. There are EASILY 20x more collectors of Morgan dollars than platinum eagles. Rarity alone does not a good investment make.