Against what? The ruble? The Euro which some experts believe wont be around in a few years? The pound sterling--no wait, they import oil, copper and sugar too. The currencies of the sugar producing nations like Haiti and Cuba? The Chinese yuan that they have been manipulating to low levels for years in order to fuel domestic growth that is in turn causing the price they pay for raw materials to go up?
CG >>
Bingo. Give the man a Kewpie Doll! >>
BS. The dollar like any currency could collapse under it's own weight. No one mentioned gold. How are most currencies doing against gold? Besides, he conviently dismissed the Yuan rather matter of factly as an alternative. What about the Yen, Swiss, Aussie, Cando, etc. plus other important commodity currencies?
The Euro, Sterling and Dollar are the weakest links. They will continue to have a Stinkfest against each other.
FYI- Hyper inflation is nothing more then a currency event. No other ingrediants are necessary.
MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Under a collapse of the US dollar I would imagine the worst, beat up gold and silver coins you could find would outperform rare US coin prices based on the spot price alone. So I would not want to buy US rare coins, especially copper, under an expected collapse.
Well boys it's been entertaining. I'm in China now and have a banking meeting in a couple hours. Gotta run........MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>No one mentioned gold. How are most currencies doing against gold? Besides, he conviently dismissed the Yuan rather matter of factly as an alternative. What about the Yen, Swiss, Aussie, Cando, etc. plus other important commodity currencies? >>
Gold is a commodity not a currency. How will the other currencies you mention be immune to commodity price driven inflation? What do we buy from the Swiss? Chocolate? Piaget watches? Canada is a small economy. What are the other important commodity currencies? The Arabs are still using petro dollars.
Edit to add: My basic point was that if other currencies do appreciate against the dollar, the place to shelter your wealth would be in investments in those stronger currencies, rather than in US coins that trade in US dollars and are not sought by foreign residents holding strong currencies.
The closer the purchase price of the coin in question is to the value of the metal its struck on the more resistent the coins value is to getting damaged by a currency collapse. Collector premiums are loosely based on net disposable real income of the united states population and the number of them that have an interest in collecting US coinage.
If the currency collapses and real incomes drop then the 50-100++++ times melt premiums on high grade classic ley date coinage have a long way to fall back to melt. If foreign markets become the market of last resort because a currency collapse has damaged the average collectors disposable income all one can count on for certain is the bullion value.
I hope we dont see a collapse in the dollar in my lifetime.
<< <i> Controlled inflation is wonderful, everything works smoothly with such - deflation is the devil, it messes things up. Without real inflation of 5-6% per year being reported as 2-3% per year, how do you expect us to be able to pay our social security obligations in 30 years? >>
While counter-intuitive, a small rate of inflation is good. Buy now, before the price goes up. Invest in new technology and processes that are more efficient to counter higher labor and material prices. Hold investments for nominal appreciation, which limits the quantity on the market, which causes further appreciation. Invest idle cash to earn more than the rate of inflation. Banks want to lend for the same reason. Debt eventually becomes easier to pay off, encouraging more investment and consumption.
With deflation, all of the opposites are true. Don't buy now...it will be cheaper later. Don't bother investing in new technology, the existing technology will be more profitable as labor and material prices decrease. Sell investments before they fall further, which increases quantity on the market, which causes further asset value declines. Hold on to cash...why risk it when it appreciates in value by doing nothing. Banks do NOT want to lend, for the same reason. Debt becomes harder and harder to pay off, discouraging more investment and consumption.
The Bush and Obama stimulus policies have kept us from a collapse that would have been FAR worse than the the 1930s, with today's much smaller percentage of Americans involved in essential agriculture and manufacturing, and a hugely higher percentage of "wealth" tied up in volatile investments.
The average Joe Sixback screaming STOP GOVERNMENT SPENDING, when individuals, businesses and banks are not spending doesn't realize the consequences of what they are demanding.
Frank Provasek - PCGS Authorized Dealer, Life Member ANA, Member TNA. www.frankcoins.com
<< <i> Edit to add: My basic point was that if other currencies do appreciate against the dollar, the place to shelter your wealth would be in investments in those stronger currencies, rather than in US coins that trade in US dollars and are not sought by foreign residents holding strong currencies. CG >>
I agree. MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Soooo many posts over night. Can't keep track of who said what, but here are my replies:
Re housing as a terrible investment: I bought my house in the 90's, put 20% down, the cost of the house of $275k was about 2X family income, refinanced to a lower interest rate in 2002 (which is now floating at 3%), house was worth $600k at the peak, now worth $500k. Mortgage almost all paid off. Great friggin investment. And tax free to boot!!!
Re how is buying bonds inflationary: Not my theory on this, just giving you what "they" say.When you want to cause inflation, the FED buys bonds. This puts money into the holder of that bond which adds to the money supply. Adding to the money supply is inflationary. When they want to contract money supply, they sell bonds causing a contraction in the money supply.
Re sugar reasons: sugar is a complex commodity that is abundant but forced down due to US policies (we wont allow imports of sugar). So there are many reasons why sugar may have spiked a few years back but it probably had nothing to do with supply and demand. As an aside, if we imported sugar and used it for ethanol instead of corn, many of the food prices that are rising due to increased corn prices would be lessened. the energy provided from sugar vs corn for ethanol is like 6X. We get get all the sugar we wanted for ethanol 70 miles off our Florida coast.
Re what has gone up since the crash: Believe it our not some of the Stock indexes are now higher than they were pre Lehman Brothers. Aside from all the metals and basic food commodities, real estate taxes are higher, sales taxes are higher, health insurance is higher, prescription drugs are higher, medical deductibles are higher, medical out of pocket costs are higher, college tuition is higher (much higher, any good private college is now $40k+/yr), utilities are higher (water, sewer, garbage, telecom etc). I could go on but from my little world my costs are probably 20% higher than 2 years ago.
<< <i>How is the upcoming collapse in the U.S. Dollar going to affect prices of rare US coins? >>
Someone once told me that when you see the price of gold rising - it's not that gold is getting more valuable, it's that the dollar is worth less. So if there is any truth in that, your gold coins are going to be worth multiple times more. But the the coin market in general may suffer somewhat although I cannot see it ever bottoming out. Even in the Great Depression, rare coins kept their value.
With that being said, now might be a good time to buy gold coins.
<Gold is a commodity not a currency. How will the other currencies you mention be immune to commodity price driven inflation? What do we buy from the Swiss? Chocolate? Piaget watches? Canada is a small economy. What are the other important commodity currencies? The Arabs are still using petro dollars>
Gold is a currency, just not a fiat one.
What do we buy from the Swiss? With the Franc so strong against the dollar, a lot less of what ever it is. But, that wasn't the point. The point is that there are other currencies that are fundamentally stronger then the dollar. Canada has the strongest safest banks in the world. They are rich in natural resources. There defense budget is low. Bigger is not necessarily better.
Do you honestly believe that Chinese won't force the renminbi to be part of a Reserve equation? It will be in the mix sooner then later. It looks like they where in the debt market in Europe this morning. Adding more pieces to the puzzle. Leverage.
The Bank of China banking meeting I attended today in China was to announce the specifics of the renminbi (yuan) trading globally. Specifically, they will allow US customers to trade the RMB, They are preparing for the day the renminbi becomes fully convertible.
I do not think it will pay to be US centric now or in the future.
MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>No one mentioned gold. How are most currencies doing against gold? Besides, he conviently dismissed the Yuan rather matter of factly as an alternative. What about the Yen, Swiss, Aussie, Cando, etc. plus other important commodity currencies? >>
Gold is a commodity not a currency. How will the other currencies you mention be immune to commodity price driven inflation? What do we buy from the Swiss? Chocolate? Piaget watches? Canada is a small economy. What are the other important commodity currencies? The Arabs are still using petro dollars.
Edit to add: My basic point was that if other currencies do appreciate against the dollar, the place to shelter your wealth would be in investments in those stronger currencies, rather than in US coins that trade in US dollars and are not sought by foreign residents holding strong currencies.
CG >>
It surprises folks to learn we buy all kinds of material from the swiss in fact the US runs a trade deficit with Switzerland in most categories including the high value added manufac. equipment. But this is the case with every single developed nation the US trades with except Australia.... that we have trade deficeits with nearly everyone.
I think the US feeds all other counties buy being the largest consumer of their products, so if the US Dollar collapses the whole world will come to our aid..
One thing not mentioned is that the US subsidizes EVERY country in the world through the use of our military. Europe is near financial collapse and yet they don't have to police the world like we do. Must be great to be them to throw stones at us. If we collapsed, the whole world would feel it. There would be plagues, war, chaos, food shortages, etc. One could argue if the Soviet Union did not collapse that 9/11 would have never happened and we would not be involved in Iraq and Afghanistan. The Somali Pirate syndrome would be world wide with the collapse of the US.
I meant those who believe that the world revolves around the US. MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>Thanks MJ I for one always thought that was true. Was it ever that way before? What has changed?
Thanks >>
I guess all those that have lived within a dynasty or superpower have felt that way at one time or another. I guess if you asked any Brit who was living during their time as the preceeding superpower they would have surely felt that way. I would also guess it depends on ones perspective. Having traveled to 70+ countries, working extensively in 30 and living in four of them I may see things differently then someone else. It doesn't mean I see things better, just differently and perhaps not predisposed to a centric US point of view. For the record, I love coming home to my bed in the USA and my US coins in my SDB...................I hope I answered your question. All the best, MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i><Gold is a commodity not a currency. How will the other currencies you mention be immune to commodity price driven inflation? What do we buy from the Swiss? Chocolate? Piaget watches? Canada is a small economy. What are the other important commodity currencies? The Arabs are still using petro dollars>
Gold is a currency, just not a fiat one.
What do we buy from the Swiss? With the Franc so strong against the dollar, a lot less of what ever it is. But, that wasn't the point. The point is that there are other currencies that are fundamentally stronger then the dollar. Canada has the strongest safest banks in the world. They are rich in natural resources. There defense budget is low. Bigger is not necessarily better.
Do you honestly believe that Chinese won't force the renminbi to be part of a Reserve equation? It will be in the mix sooner then later. It looks like they where in the debt market in Europe this morning. Adding more pieces to the puzzle. Leverage.
The Bank of China banking meeting I attended today in China was to announce the specifics of the renminbi (yuan) trading globally. Specifically, they will allow US customers to trade the RMB, They are preparing for the day the renminbi becomes fully convertible.
I do not think it will pay to be US centric now or in the future.
MJ >>
IMO, it will be a good thing when the world has diversified its reserve currencies away from the dollar (which I believe will take a long time). Right now, the US Government can print money and attempt to devalue the currency with impunity. Heads of foreign central banks may grumble about things like QE2, but practically speaking they have no real alternative at present. Once there is a legitimate reseve currency alternative, the US will find it much harder to act irresponibly with our money supply. They would see immediate consequences in exchange rates. This will force fiscal discipline onto the US, whether we like it or not. It may be a bit painful, but it will be a positive factor in the long run.
I wish our current generation of leaders...and that would be everyone from Nixon onward - would have noticed that our first coins stated "LIBERTY - PARENT OF SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY" Our high school graduates rank 29th worldwide in science, and we don't make anything here anymore. I have always tried to buy American, but I have given up. I would have no TV, DVD player, computer, cell phone, clothes, shoes, radio, CD player.
Frank Provasek - PCGS Authorized Dealer, Life Member ANA, Member TNA. www.frankcoins.com
It's too bad that ever since the Bush tax cuts were put into place our National Debt has tripled. So fun to borrow from our grandchildren so we can not pay for today.
Since 1980, GNP has increased by a factor of 5 and National Debt by a factor of 14. Uh oh. But if you look since 1985, it's factors of 4 and 7 .... which isn't so bad considering we're spending our way out of a depression.
Yeah, and I guess all those extra people are just supposed to divide up the same money supply, and level of government services, without those levels increasing, too.
one could graph life expectancy, standard of living, acces to information, miles of good roads, airline flights in a year, number of medicines available, any number of developments, over time, and you'd get an ascending curve from past to present.
is anyone making the case that we'd like these curves to flatten out, so that the money supply and debt curves wouldn't be so scary?
Comments
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>That the dollar is going to collapse? >>
Against what? The ruble? The Euro which some experts believe wont be around in a few years? The pound sterling--no wait, they import oil, copper and sugar too. The currencies of the sugar producing nations like Haiti and Cuba? The Chinese yuan that they have been manipulating to low levels for years in order to fuel domestic growth that is in turn causing the price they pay for raw materials to go up?
CG >>
Bingo. Give the man a Kewpie Doll! >>
BS. The dollar like any currency could collapse under it's own weight. No one mentioned gold. How are most currencies doing against gold? Besides, he conviently dismissed the Yuan rather matter of factly as an alternative. What about the Yen, Swiss, Aussie, Cando, etc. plus other important commodity currencies?
The Euro, Sterling and Dollar are the weakest links. They will continue to have a Stinkfest against each other.
FYI- Hyper inflation is nothing more then a currency event. No other ingrediants are necessary.
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
And it will probably go up more than rare coins....
But will it go up more than stock in Collector's Universe?
No one knows, do one?
And on that note, good night.....sleep tight....and whatever you do.......don't let the......bed bugs bite.
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>No one mentioned gold. How are most currencies doing against gold? Besides, he conviently dismissed the Yuan rather matter of factly as an alternative. What about the Yen, Swiss, Aussie, Cando, etc. plus other important commodity currencies? >>
Gold is a commodity not a currency. How will the other currencies you mention be immune to commodity price driven inflation? What do we buy from the Swiss? Chocolate? Piaget watches? Canada is a small economy. What are the other important commodity currencies? The Arabs are still using petro dollars.
Edit to add: My basic point was that if other currencies do appreciate against the dollar, the place to shelter your wealth would be in investments in those stronger currencies, rather than in US coins that trade in US dollars and are not sought by foreign residents holding strong currencies.
CG
If the currency collapses and real incomes drop then the 50-100++++ times melt premiums on high grade classic ley date coinage have a long way to fall back to melt. If foreign markets become the market of last resort because a currency collapse has damaged the average collectors disposable income all one can count on for certain is the bullion value.
I hope we dont see a collapse in the dollar in my lifetime.
Eric Jordan
<< <i>
Controlled inflation is wonderful, everything works smoothly with such - deflation is the devil, it messes things up. Without real inflation of 5-6% per year being reported as 2-3% per year, how do you expect us to be able to pay our social security obligations in 30 years? >>
While counter-intuitive, a small rate of inflation is good. Buy now, before the price goes up. Invest in new technology and processes that are more efficient to counter higher labor and material prices. Hold investments for nominal appreciation, which limits the quantity on the market, which causes further appreciation. Invest idle cash to earn more than the rate of inflation. Banks want to lend for the same reason. Debt eventually becomes easier to pay off, encouraging more investment and consumption.
With deflation, all of the opposites are true. Don't buy now...it will be cheaper later. Don't bother investing in new technology, the existing technology will be more profitable as labor and material prices decrease. Sell investments before they fall further, which increases quantity on the market, which causes further asset value declines. Hold on to cash...why risk it when it appreciates in value by doing nothing. Banks do NOT want to lend, for the same reason. Debt becomes harder and harder to pay off, discouraging more investment and consumption.
The Bush and Obama stimulus policies have kept us from a collapse that would have been FAR worse than the the 1930s, with today's much smaller percentage of Americans involved in essential agriculture and manufacturing, and a hugely higher percentage of "wealth" tied up in volatile investments.
The average Joe Sixback screaming STOP GOVERNMENT SPENDING, when individuals, businesses and banks are not spending doesn't realize the consequences of what they are demanding.
<< <i> Edit to add: My basic point was that if other currencies do appreciate against the dollar, the place to shelter your wealth would be in investments in those stronger currencies, rather than in US coins that trade in US dollars and are not sought by foreign residents holding strong currencies.
CG >>
I agree. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Re housing as a terrible investment: I bought my house in the 90's, put 20% down, the cost of the house of $275k was about 2X family income, refinanced to a lower interest rate in 2002 (which is now floating at 3%), house was worth $600k at the peak, now worth $500k. Mortgage almost all paid off. Great friggin investment. And tax free to boot!!!
Re how is buying bonds inflationary: Not my theory on this, just giving you what "they" say.When you want to cause inflation, the FED buys bonds. This puts money into the holder of that bond which adds to the money supply. Adding to the money supply is inflationary. When they want to contract money supply, they sell bonds causing a contraction in the money supply.
Re sugar reasons: sugar is a complex commodity that is abundant but forced down due to US policies (we wont allow imports of sugar). So there are many reasons why sugar may have spiked a few years back but it probably had nothing to do with supply and demand. As an aside, if we imported sugar and used it for ethanol instead of corn, many of the food prices that are rising due to increased corn prices would be lessened. the energy provided from sugar vs corn for ethanol is like 6X. We get get all the sugar we wanted for ethanol 70 miles off our Florida coast.
Re what has gone up since the crash: Believe it our not some of the Stock indexes are now higher than they were pre Lehman Brothers. Aside from all the metals and basic food commodities, real estate taxes are higher, sales taxes are higher, health insurance is higher, prescription drugs are higher, medical deductibles are higher, medical out of pocket costs are higher, college tuition is higher (much higher, any good private college is now $40k+/yr), utilities are higher (water, sewer, garbage, telecom etc). I could go on but from my little world my costs are probably 20% higher than 2 years ago.
Rare coins will be absolutely worthless and the people how bought them will be 'what the heck was I thinking'.
Kind of like the housing bubble. Actually, rare coins are due for a major correction, even if the dollar doesn't collapse.
<< <i>How is the upcoming collapse in the U.S. Dollar going to affect prices of rare US coins? >>
Someone once told me that when you see the price of gold rising - it's not that gold is getting more valuable, it's that the dollar is worth less.
So if there is any truth in that, your gold coins are going to be worth multiple times more. But the the coin market in general may suffer somewhat although I cannot see it ever bottoming out. Even in the Great Depression, rare coins kept their value.
With that being said, now might be a good time to buy gold coins.
Gold is a currency, just not a fiat one.
What do we buy from the Swiss? With the Franc so strong against the dollar, a lot less of what ever it is. But, that wasn't the point. The point is that there are other currencies that are fundamentally stronger then the dollar. Canada has the strongest safest banks in the world. They are rich in natural resources. There defense budget is low. Bigger is not necessarily better.
Do you honestly believe that Chinese won't force the renminbi to be part of a Reserve equation? It will be in the mix sooner then later. It looks like they where in the debt market in Europe this morning. Adding more pieces to the puzzle. Leverage.
The Bank of China banking meeting I attended today in China was to announce the specifics of the renminbi (yuan) trading globally. Specifically, they will allow US customers to trade the RMB, They are preparing for the day the renminbi becomes fully convertible.
I do not think it will pay to be US centric now or in the future.
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>
<< <i>No one mentioned gold. How are most currencies doing against gold? Besides, he conviently dismissed the Yuan rather matter of factly as an alternative. What about the Yen, Swiss, Aussie, Cando, etc. plus other important commodity currencies? >>
Gold is a commodity not a currency. How will the other currencies you mention be immune to commodity price driven inflation? What do we buy from the Swiss? Chocolate? Piaget watches? Canada is a small economy. What are the other important commodity currencies? The Arabs are still using petro dollars.
Edit to add: My basic point was that if other currencies do appreciate against the dollar, the place to shelter your wealth would be in investments in those stronger currencies, rather than in US coins that trade in US dollars and are not sought by foreign residents holding strong currencies.
CG >>
It surprises folks to learn we buy all kinds of material from the swiss in fact the US runs a trade deficit with Switzerland in most categories including the high value added manufac. equipment. But this is the case with every single developed nation the US trades with except Australia.... that we have trade deficeits with nearly everyone.
I think the US feeds all other counties buy being the largest consumer of their products, so if the US Dollar collapses the whole world will come to our aid..
It says $50 down at the bottom: (but if you tried to use one at Walmart, I bet they wouldn't take it.)
Not quite Mad Max but pretty close
<< <i>What is a US Centric? >>
I meant those who believe that the world revolves around the US. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Thanks
<< <i>Thanks MJ I for one always thought that was true. Was it ever that way before? What has changed?
Thanks >>
I guess all those that have lived within a dynasty or superpower have felt that way at one time or another. I guess if you asked any Brit who was living during their time as the preceeding superpower they would have surely felt that way. I would also guess it depends on ones perspective. Having traveled to 70+ countries, working extensively in 30 and living in four of them I may see things differently then someone else. It doesn't mean I see things better, just differently and perhaps not predisposed to a centric US point of view. For the record, I love coming home to my bed in the USA and my US coins in my SDB
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i><Gold is a commodity not a currency. How will the other currencies you mention be immune to commodity price driven inflation? What do we buy from the Swiss? Chocolate? Piaget watches? Canada is a small economy. What are the other important commodity currencies? The Arabs are still using petro dollars>
Gold is a currency, just not a fiat one.
What do we buy from the Swiss? With the Franc so strong against the dollar, a lot less of what ever it is. But, that wasn't the point. The point is that there are other currencies that are fundamentally stronger then the dollar. Canada has the strongest safest banks in the world. They are rich in natural resources. There defense budget is low. Bigger is not necessarily better.
Do you honestly believe that Chinese won't force the renminbi to be part of a Reserve equation? It will be in the mix sooner then later. It looks like they where in the debt market in Europe this morning. Adding more pieces to the puzzle. Leverage.
The Bank of China banking meeting I attended today in China was to announce the specifics of the renminbi (yuan) trading globally. Specifically, they will allow US customers to trade the RMB, They are preparing for the day the renminbi becomes fully convertible.
I do not think it will pay to be US centric now or in the future.
MJ >>
IMO, it will be a good thing when the world has diversified its reserve currencies away from the dollar (which I believe will take a long time). Right now, the US Government can print money and attempt to devalue the currency with impunity. Heads of foreign central banks may grumble about things like QE2, but practically speaking they have no real alternative at present. Once there is a legitimate reseve currency alternative, the US will find it much harder to act irresponibly with our money supply. They would see immediate consequences in exchange rates. This will force fiscal discipline onto the US, whether we like it or not. It may be a bit painful, but it will be a positive factor in the long run.
merse
Mostly the voices come from donuts telling
me to buy and eat them. I do what the voices
tell me. I buy the donuts and eat them.
Camelot
<< <i>Like I said, gold is a currency and I can prove it:
It says $50 down at the bottom: (but if you tried to use one at Walmart, I bet they wouldn't take it.)
That $50 is just there so that when Uncle Sam decides to take your gold again, he will give you 50 per oz., the official U.S. price of gold.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>does This graph of the US population 1790-2010 have anything to do with it? >>
100 million added since I was born. wow
one could graph life expectancy, standard of living, acces to information, miles of good roads, airline flights in a year, number of medicines available, any number of developments, over time, and you'd get an ascending curve from past to present.
is anyone making the case that we'd like these curves to flatten out, so that the money supply and debt curves wouldn't be so scary?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry