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Au & Ag failing miserably

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  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,119 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    My grandfather used to say: "You can't climb Mt. Everest in one day, that's why there are numerous base camps along the climb."
    Same holds true with PM's .... you'll reach your goal of breaking the $30 oz barrier. >>





    Interesting quote OPA. While it is true the climbers do not ascend in 1-day, they do descend in 1-day. >>



    In 1988, Jean-Marc Boivin of France descended from the top in just 11 minutes, paragliding.

    Erhard Loretan and Jean Troillet made the fastest descent of Mt. Everest by sliding 8,000 feet down on their butts. It took 3 ? hours.

    I think you can also make it in one day by skiing down the slope.....but not walking.image
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • piecesofmepiecesofme Posts: 6,669 ✭✭✭
    On the other hand, because we haven't seen $30.00 for oh, about 30 years - I would postulate that $30 does represent a psychological level in both directions. The reality, I believe - is that $30.00 is only the result of fundamentals which include both monetary & fiscal policy, in addition to the developing physical shortfall and the games Comex plays

    I just hope it isnt another 30 years before we see $30 Ag. I might not be around. I still think fear of what the CBE did twice in a week happening again is a major factor in holding it back and causing some folks to sell and lock in their profit before something like that happens again. That was brutal of them do raise buying minimums with absolutely no notice like that. But I suppose if they would've forecasted they were going to it would've caused the same reaction, if not worse. It's the fact that they did it is what spooked people and still has them on edge.
    Of course, "stackers" who are avgd. in @ $10-15 could care less, right? image If only we all could be so fortunate. Not jealous of them, they bet on something over the years and got it right...Congrats! It just doesnt apply to the way I deal in it though.
    To forgive is to free a prisoner, and to discover that prisoner was you.


  • << <i>On the other hand, because we haven't seen $30.00 for oh, about 30 years - I would postulate that $30 does represent a psychological level in both directions. The reality, I believe - is that $30.00 is only the result of fundamentals which include both monetary & fiscal policy, in addition to the developing physical shortfall and the games Comex plays

    I just hope it isnt another 30 years before we see $30 Ag. I might not be around. I still think fear of what the CBE did twice in a week happening again is a major factor in holding it back and causing some folks to sell and lock in their profit before something like that happens again. That was brutal of them do raise buying minimums with absolutely no notice like that. But I suppose if they would've forecasted they were going to it would've caused the same reaction, if not worse. It's the fact that they did it is what spooked people and still has them on edge.
    Of course, "stackers" who are avgd. in @ $10-15 could care less, right? image If only we all could be so fortunate. Not jealous of them, they bet on something over the years and got it right...Congrats! It just doesnt apply to the way I deal in it though. >>





    Rich, I think if we could revisit this thread in another 5 years time, there will be folks who WISH they had gotten into silver at "just" $30. It'll go something like this:


    "For all those who were lucky enough to buy silver back in 2010 at $30, good for them. But with silver now stagnant at around $130, I really have to question what manipulative forces are at work keeping silver from breaking through to $150."


    You see Rich, hindsight is always 20/20. Many people (including myself) were leary of adding to our stacks at $20.....how did that one turn out? I have heard about "market tops" from "financial wizards" about gold every step of the way on this current bull run. $600....its overpriced...few months later $800...its topped out!...few months later $1,000...it cant go higher, watch out for the bubble!

    Now, just to be perfectly honest with you Rich. You were late to the party it seems, and you project this "anger" over being late. But the party will go on Rich. So long as metals are valued in U.S. dollars, and so long as those dollars are printed by the billions....the party will continue. You have decided to focus on a 3 month window and completely forget about the big picture. The $30 barrier is simply a psychological one.....just as $20 was previously...but we punched through that one!

    If you are simply a flipper of metals, looking for the quick cash, then 2 things: First, its easy to understand your frustrations...and Secondly, you wont find any sympathy from me or most users in this forum.

    If on the other hand, you are a stacker who wishes to protect your purchasing power.....do your best to stave off the detrimental effects of hyperinflation...and use that stack as a way to insure your family's financial health, then:

    RELAX!!!


    You are a young guy Rich. A smart guy too (we have met in person a couple times). You just need to realize that this artificial manipulation you are talking about can be a great thing IF you are truly a stacker and not just some guy looking to make a fast buck in metals. The flood gates can only be held closed for so long before the dam breaks! If you are stacking at $30 right now, you will be HANDSOMELY rewarded when those exterior manipulations are finally removed and silver really takes off!
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,824 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I just hope it isnt another 30 years before we see $30 Ag. I might not be around. I still think fear of what the CBE did twice in a week happening again is a major factor in holding it back and causing some folks to sell and lock in their profit before something like that happens again. That was brutal of them do raise buying minimums with absolutely no notice like that. But I suppose if they would've forecasted they were going to it would've caused the same reaction, if not worse. It's the fact that they did it is what spooked people and still has them on edge.

    Having the exchanges raise their margin requirements accomplished what it was intended to accomplish - it drained some of the leverage from the market. My sense is that if all of the leveraged speculators were to leave the market today, the value of silver would still be pretty close to what it is right now, and the direction would still be going upwards due to the fundamentals. Anyhow, if most of what I read is true, it isn't the margin speculators on the long side who are controlling the price anyway - it's the naked shorts, i.e. JP Morgan.

    Of course, "stackers" who are avgd. in @ $10-15 could care less, right? If only we all could be so fortunate. Not jealous of them, they bet on something over the years and got it right...Congrats! It just doesnt apply to the way I deal in it though.

    If you tip-toe in a little at a time, there is much lower market risk. The interesting thing I've found is that once your position becomes "significant" in terms of your total net worth, each successive purchase is still important, but not as devastating if you "buy wrong". Don't ever buy if you need the money for something else, but do buy if you have money to invest. If you are somewhat consistant, you will benefit from the long term rising price trend that is currently in play.

    And keep your ear to the ground. If something important changes that will affect our economic system and our monetary system, then you have to consider it. Right now, nothing has changed - it is still screwed up. Carry on.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • piecesofmepiecesofme Posts: 6,669 ✭✭✭
    Good advice guys, thank you. I just wish I could approach it that way not really being a stacker, although I do have some "put back" that i add to when profits from flipping allow me to.
    I try to flip it quick if I get a good price, then I take the profits from that flip to add to "the pile".
    Typically, for every 80 oz. of Ag I flip, I profit enough to buy and put back 10 oz.. I do it that way to compile rather than using savings or other accessable funds. Constant cost avging., but it works for me at this point.
    Thanks again for the sound advice though guys, it goes a long way.
    To forgive is to free a prisoner, and to discover that prisoner was you.
  • piecesofmepiecesofme Posts: 6,669 ✭✭✭
    the gravity of $30 Ag rears its ugly head once again in a late day profit takers take driven by greed.

    Nice run above $31 for a day due to low volume the last 2 weeks. Now that volume is coming back, so is gravity. all jmho.
    To forgive is to free a prisoner, and to discover that prisoner was you.
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The GSR is hanging very tight right around 46. That suggests to me that liquidity is still flowing more into silver than gold. The main market tends to support that as well.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • piecesofmepiecesofme Posts: 6,669 ✭✭✭
    rr…You are obviously a very well respected member of this community judging by what others have to say about you, so I will show you respect as well when I ask, do you ever play anything on a hunch or are you the poster child for a pure technical chart reader?
    I am honestly not asking that sarcastically or with any disrespect. As we know, sometimes a simple question can be take out of context and turned into nearly the complete opposite of what was said.
    I’m just askin’, purely technical analysis or play a hunch even on a rare occasion?

    I ask this because I firmly believe in the technical side also as you do, but I also believe other variables such as dumb luck, timing, “a feeling” play a huge part in how one can view what the direction of a stock, commodity, etc.. will do.
    Heck! I’ve even done the exact opposite of what I thought something was going to do before after a losing streak because I figured logic told me one thing, but it just wasn’t happening, so why not try the opposite…or at the very least a different approach.

    Again, I’m not being disrespectful. I’m actually just trying to see it from another point of view such as yours.
    To forgive is to free a prisoner, and to discover that prisoner was you.
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,824 ✭✭✭✭✭
    A "feeling" based on intuition is not a guess made in a vacuum. On the contrary, intuition requires enough background to make sense of the situation whether or not the technical data is dead on or not. The best intuition comes from those who have the best training.

    Just my 2 cents. (and worth about as much).image
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Hunches are at best 50-50 over time. Those kinds of odds don't work for me. Silver continues to linger around the $28-$31 range for a month now with several touches in the $30's. Usually such activity suggests an upwards breakout. Silver has been particulary susceptible to quick washouts the past few years. Essentially none of that has occurred recently. If physical silver stocks are indeed severely limited right now on the Comex/LBMA, it will be very difficult to keep it from springing up towards $33-$35. Both and gold and silver have their 14 day stochastics >80 for 3 days now. Often times extended moves start from there. If I'm going to play a hunch, it would be to the upside right now. The good thing is that even if I'm wrong much higher silver levels are coming in the next few months, even if another drop back to $28 occurs.

    Every "hunch" I've played involving gold and silver was based on at least some chart or fundamental characteristic, usually several. No pure hunches. My best "hunches" seem to come from major chart trends such as triangles, cups, h&s, gaps, etc. One thing that does concern me are gaps left from 5-6 days ago. Gold could easily fall back to $1375 to fill that gap and silver would follow. But gold could do that and still maintain the ascending triangle that has been building for 2 months.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • Wolf359Wolf359 Posts: 7,656 ✭✭✭

    A 5 year old article, back when silver was $9 an ounce, predicting the coming silver shortage by Israel Friedman is worth the read:

    Let’s see the stages of a shortage.
    1) Pre-shortage – the users will have to wait 3 to 6 weeks extra for shipments. Then the prices can rise to $20-30/oz.
    - Check
    2) Shortage – the users will wait an extra 6 weeks to 4 months for silver. Then the prices can rise above the old all-time highs of $50/oz.
    3) Super shortage – the users have to wait more than 4 months for their silver shipments. The price will range from $100 to prices you won’t believe.



    With Silver over $30 an ounce, we are now in Stage 2 of the Silver Shortage



  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,824 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I found this comment of Izzy's interesting:

    This sell-off brings two conclusions. One, that gold and silver don’t have monetary value, because money value doesn’t change so much in value in such a short period of time. Gold and silver aren’t insurance for anything, not for inflation, not for a collapsing dollar and they are simply controlled metals.

    Good Article, Wolf
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    This sell-off brings two conclusions. One, that gold and silver don’t have monetary value, because money value doesn’t change so much in value in such a short period of time. Gold and silver aren’t insurance for anything, not for inflation, not for a collapsing dollar and they are simply controlled metals.

    One could say that FRNs don't have monetary value either. How could this proxy "money" possibly lose 95% of its value in less than a century? In a fiat world there is no monetary unit but just a constant changing of the guard from day to day. If gold and silver weren't heavily controlled from 1993-2007 they would have seen a much more steady rise over the years. Interesting that the central banks keep gold on deposit to potentially square their debts with each other, yet it's not money. Worse yet, a number of CB's have been increasing their gold stores over the past several years. Odd behavior indeed towards something that isn't money. image

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,824 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I also believe other variables such as dumb luck, timing, “a feeling” play a huge part in how one can view what the direction of a stock, commodity, etc.. will do.
    Heck! I’ve even done the exact opposite of what I thought something was going to do before after a losing streak because I figured logic told me one thing, but it just wasn’t happening, so why not try the opposite…or at the very least a different approach.



    the gravity of $30 Ag rears its ugly head once again in a late day profit takers take driven by greed.

    Nice run above $31 for a day due to low volume the last 2 weeks. Now that volume is coming back, so is gravity. all jmho.



    Your hunch appears to be playing itself out.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Piecesofme certainly hunched that one out of the park. Our hats are off to you.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • piecesofmepiecesofme Posts: 6,669 ✭✭✭
    Thank you guys...unfortunately, this time I did not buy a Put like I did the last time I called it the day before.
    This 3% or so drop was needed, and I hate to say it but I think another 3-5% of downward action will follow this up in the very short term.
    Buying opportunity image
    To forgive is to free a prisoner, and to discover that prisoner was you.
  • piecesofmepiecesofme Posts: 6,669 ✭✭✭
    One thing that does concern me are gaps left from 5-6 days ago. Gold could easily fall back to $1375 to fill that gap and silver would follow.

    It appears your concern has come true also rr.
    To forgive is to free a prisoner, and to discover that prisoner was you.
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Yeah, "funny" how often those gaps come back into play soon after they are made. On the positive side, many new gap downs today so fresh targets to shoot for. It will be unusual in this bull market for gold to have peaked out at only 17% above its 200 dma. Silver was ripe for the plucking but not gold nor miners. So I don't think this is a major downmove in progress....probably just the banksters sweeping sweeping away sell stops and profiting on their shorts. The quick attack at 8:20 am was in perfect sync with previous bank operations over the past week that have occured between 8:15-8:30 am. That took gold down from $1409 to $1393 and got the ball rolling hard downhill.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • piecesofmepiecesofme Posts: 6,669 ✭✭✭
    Just an observation of mine...I think big $ players are moving out of PM's and into Oil. Oil did not come along for the ride of other commodities looking at it percentage wise. I think I see $ moving into it to drive it up now. I don't have any in depth analysis, but from what I see, hear, read and some charting, I think PM's might be done although they may finally stabilize somewhere in the $25-30 range. $125 Crude will be here by the Summer months imo and it will be purely speculator driven because there is by no means any shortage of Oil...anywhere. Lets re-visit this say 4-6 months from now and just see what happened.
    To forgive is to free a prisoner, and to discover that prisoner was you.
  • gsa1fangsa1fan Posts: 5,566 ✭✭✭
    $5 gallon gas December 30, 2010 ~ old newsimage
    Avid collector of GSA's.
  • piecesofmepiecesofme Posts: 6,669 ✭✭✭
    lol...what an *****. every opportunity to bad mouth me, he lives up to his reputation of doing so. whatever...i dont live on the net like you Tim. Besides, I came up with this by my own due diligence and dont have to rely on some ex-CEO to tell me what to think.
    To forgive is to free a prisoner, and to discover that prisoner was you.
  • piecesofmepiecesofme Posts: 6,669 ✭✭✭
    anyone want to try and call where Ag will level off?
    To forgive is to free a prisoner, and to discover that prisoner was you.
  • 1jester1jester Posts: 8,637 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Rich, when did you get in on metals? Maybe its simply a misunderstanding of perspective? If a person has aquired the bulk (75%+) of their metals in the past 12 months, then maybe they see the current stagnation as being a failure. However, MANY members of this forum have been involved im precious metals for a decade or longer.....some much longer. They, and I, will never agree with your view that Au and Ag are "failing", during their all-time highs period.

    Phil,
    All I'm really getting at is the HYPE that folks were saying that Ag is going to go to $30+ (+ being the key thing).
    ok, now it has made 2 recent runs a little above $29 (keep in mind when I posted the thread it had topped out at $29.05 for the day and was at $24.40-ish). Congratulations to those folks that believed the HYPE, laid their $ down and bought some Ag as little as 4 months ago. They have had 2 chances to cash out for a near 40-50%+ gain if bought/sold at prcise highs/lows.
    My question is why cant it break thru the expectation that is has come up against? Apparently, some people (not you) didnt read my whole original post. jmski52 did and gave some meaningful feedback to the questions I asked.
    That's all i'm saying...where I personally bought in or what my cost avg. is is not the motivating factor of my questions. What is, is why cant it break thru when it has run up to, so quickly, the HYPED number that everyone was throwing out there 4-5 months ago? If it can run 50% in 4 months, what's stopping it? My suggestion is that it is being heavily MANIPULATED (as I said in my OP), but some folks only read what they want to read. If they wouldve takent the time to read it all, maybe they wouldve understood better what I was asking/suggesting.
    I wonder how many folks will actually read my whole post now...or will they only pick apart what they want to like they did with my thread about Govt. wage freezes??? >>



    I suppose you're not yet convinced of silver's resilience and ability to stay above $30, since you were so adamant about that position a mere 3 months ago.

    Text

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    "Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9

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