@Mesquite said:
Gold up, silver up, dollar up. This has been the pattern for the last few days now I believe.
These days and weeks, Gold down, Silver down, Dollar up. This has been the pattern since Nov. 9.
I can understand gold and silver being down since November as caused partly by the dollar being up. Stronger, that is, compared to other currencies, so fewer dollars are needed to buy the same oz. of gold. Is that correct?
But then why would gold and silver be up in June when the dollar is up, but would be down in November/December when the dollar is still up? As one reason, is there perhaps less demand now than in June? Or, a flood of supply compared to June?
Is it just context? Reasons unique to the different situations in those two times?
[much reduced version of the earlier rambling, unruly personal essay that I posted]
As is the case with most who do not know, as you mentioned of yourself in the second paragraph, you use limited knowledge to extrapolate larger definition.
In other words, you see things that do not exist.
And before you jump and say, "yes I do see it", as so many on this board do, have introspective into your own knowledge and experience regarding intermarket relationships, time scaling, and perspective, while removing societal, political, and time biases.
When you can do this, it truly does become obvious.
Well, thanks for your reply. It won't surprise you that I didn't understand what you said about intermarket relationships, time scaling, etc in this context.
But I do get the part about wrongly extrapolating from limited knowledge, thus seeing things "that [actually] don't exist".
And that's why I put it out here, for fact correction, or to learn how a particular model might view how these 3 indexes each reveal the markets responses to people's economic actions. To see correctly after testing the lenses.
So both eyes are still open. I'm willing to do my own homework, but sometimes there's someone who understands something well enough that they can explain it simply, giving a lay of the land and a sense of context, and that helps a new learner. So your response IS appreciated.
Anyway, I came back to edit it down and keep it simpler . I had fun writing it, but not all of that was necessary to post to get to my questions.
Not unusual for JPM to trade massive gold futures contracts, but why are they now interested in such a massive quantity of physical metal? And how much did they aquire on the London market where reporting requirements are non existent? Do they know something that we don't? You betcha!
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
We know they bought physical (massive amounts) and not their usual paper contracts. If taking note is paranoia then pass the tin foil. lol.
Looks like 2017 is going to bring out the same stale rebuttal. Let's see if the troll shows up. Happy New Year.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Note the performance of gold in the first half of the calendar year vs. the second half of the calendar year for the past three years. Also note that until the end of 2016 there were lower lows and lower highs. A lower low did not appear at the end of 2016.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Typical pattern, for example, IBM for the 3 years from 2013 thru 2015 peaked in late spring/summer and bottomed in February. It also did not make a lower low at end of last year.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Now it's an asset class and no longer a barbaric relic? You're making progress.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I have always referred to PMs as an asset class and never as a barbaric relic. I challenge you or anyone to prove this incorrect.
One of these days you will actually post something factual. I know you do it. I have faith in you. If you would just start to believe in yourself. I know you're scared, but it's ok...you CAN do this!!!
OK, I'll play your silly game. What is not factual in the chart posted? Or in the one before it?
When you gonna ever contribute to a topic instead of attacking those that do?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Everyone feels so "attacked". What a bunch of wimps we have become. No wonder our politics are so FUBAR.
You make a false claim and I'm gonna call you out. Pretty simple, this game.
Your chart is fine in that it exposes the limitations and false promise of PMs. Let's look at gold performance vs the Japanese yen---the country with the highest debt to GDP ratio, a ratio that the PM bulls hold to highest reverence. Terrible performance of gold vs yen. Kinda blows that "fundamental" out of the water. The creators of the chart cant even compute the return in 2002 or 2003. Terrible presentation. I would expect more in a PM forum. Perhaps I expect too much.
And I've contributed more than enough over the last decade. If you haven't learned by now, you wont.
@cohodk said:
Everyone feels so "attacked". What a bunch of wimps we have become. No wonder our politics are so FUBAR.
You make a false claim and I'm gonna call you out. Pretty simple, this game.
Your chart is fine in that it exposes the limitations and false promise of PMs. Let's look at gold performance vs the Japanese yen---the country with the highest debt to GDP ratio, a ratio that the PM bulls hold to highest reverence. Terrible performance of gold vs yen. Kinda blows that "fundamental" out of the water. The creators of the chart cant even compute the return in 2002 or 2003. Terrible presentation. I would expect more in a PM forum. Perhaps I expect too much.
And I've contributed more than enough over the last decade. If you haven't learned by now, you wont.
The facts. . . they is what they is. Your post is typical and complete confirmation.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Lower your expectations of others and raise those for yourself.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I see that the U.S. Dollar Index is dropping close to 100. I believe that we will see it drop well below 100, and that precious metals will gain from the drop.
My opinion only. Your mileage may vary.
TD
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
Here's an interesting gold chart. Kinda makes you go "h'mm."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Rather than using the peak gold prices, I'd consider a regression line representing the midpoint between the highs & lows to be more relevant. The slope of the regression line is still about the same, but the implication is that the trendline has broken out already. Even so, we've seen this movie before. Better to manage your assets over time than to try and time your trades. Is it time to buy? Sure, if your finances are already in order.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
I am surprised that the current turmoil in the U.S. Government is not driving the dollar down and gold up.
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
@CaptHenway said:
I am surprised that the current turmoil in the U.S. Government is not driving the dollar down and gold up.
Fake turmoil?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@CaptHenway said:
I am surprised that the current turmoil in the U.S. Government is not driving the dollar down and gold up.
Fake turmoil?
I think he is referring to the stock market doing well, the increase in jobs, the economy expanding, energy independence, increase in consumer confidence, etc.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Yes, the Economy is doing well thanks to eight years of good leadership prior to Jan. 20, 2017, but please re-read what I said, or have somebody read it to you.
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
Comments
Ka Boom!
BUMP
On June 16 in this thread,
These days and weeks, Gold down, Silver down, Dollar up. This has been the pattern since Nov. 9.
I can understand gold and silver being down since November as caused partly by the dollar being up. Stronger, that is, compared to other currencies, so fewer dollars are needed to buy the same oz. of gold. Is that correct?
But then why would gold and silver be up in June when the dollar is up, but would be down in November/December when the dollar is still up? As one reason, is there perhaps less demand now than in June? Or, a flood of supply compared to June?
Is it just context? Reasons unique to the different situations in those two times?
[much reduced version of the earlier rambling, unruly personal essay that I posted]
Dang. A self-imposed character-count limit would have helped the above post. Next time. Or maybe I can edit it down later
As is the case with most who do not know, as you mentioned of yourself in the second paragraph, you use limited knowledge to extrapolate larger definition.
In other words, you see things that do not exist.
And before you jump and say, "yes I do see it", as so many on this board do, have introspective into your own knowledge and experience regarding intermarket relationships, time scaling, and perspective, while removing societal, political, and time biases.
When you can do this, it truly does become obvious.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Well, thanks for your reply. It won't surprise you that I didn't understand what you said about intermarket relationships, time scaling, etc in this context.
But I do get the part about wrongly extrapolating from limited knowledge, thus seeing things "that [actually] don't exist".
And that's why I put it out here, for fact correction, or to learn how a particular model might view how these 3 indexes each reveal the markets responses to people's economic actions. To see correctly after testing the lenses.
So both eyes are still open. I'm willing to do my own homework, but sometimes there's someone who understands something well enough that they can explain it simply, giving a lay of the land and a sense of context, and that helps a new learner. So your response IS appreciated.
Anyway, I came back to edit it down and keep it simpler . I had fun writing it, but not all of that was necessary to post to get to my questions.
Don't feel bad, no one understands what I write. Lol
What you think you are seeing is the same as being in a snowstorm and assuming it's a bad winter.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The million dollar question: Why did JP Morgan buy 31 tons of physical gold on the COMEX market in 2016?
Not unusual for JPM to trade massive gold futures contracts, but why are they now interested in such a massive quantity of physical metal? And how much did they aquire on the London market where reporting requirements are non existent? Do they know something that we don't? You betcha!
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Do they know something that we don't? You betcha!
Well, considering we don't known crap, this isn't saying much, other then it's fun to speculate on fears.
How do we know JPM bought for their own coffers, and not on behalf of others?
How much did JPM sell?
Anything wrong with diversifying asset holdings?
Or we can act like paranoid sheep and think they are out to get us.
Looks like 2017 is going to bring more of the same paranoia and disillusionment. Happy new year everyone.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
We know they bought physical (massive amounts) and not their usual paper contracts. If taking note is paranoia then pass the tin foil. lol.
Looks like 2017 is going to bring out the same stale rebuttal. Let's see if the troll shows up. Happy New Year.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Interesting chart:
Note the performance of gold in the first half of the calendar year vs. the second half of the calendar year for the past three years. Also note that until the end of 2016 there were lower lows and lower highs. A lower low did not appear at the end of 2016.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Typical pattern, for example, IBM for the 3 years from 2013 thru 2015 peaked in late spring/summer and bottomed in February. It also did not make a lower low at end of last year.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Historical returns for a number of currencies. Note that each year's change is from the previous year while the total return is since 2002.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
We already know gold us up 4 fold since 2002, so why do we cry foul?
Or the nasdaq 100 is up 6 fold since 2002, so we lament choosing the wrong asset class?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Now it's an asset class and no longer a barbaric relic? You're making progress.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I have always referred to PMs as an asset class and never as a barbaric relic. I challenge you or anyone to prove this incorrect.
One of these days you will actually post something factual. I know you do it. I have faith in you. If you would just start to believe in yourself. I know you're scared, but it's ok...you CAN do this!!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
OK, I'll play your silly game. What is not factual in the chart posted? Or in the one before it?
When you gonna ever contribute to a topic instead of attacking those that do?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Everyone feels so "attacked". What a bunch of wimps we have become. No wonder our politics are so FUBAR.
You make a false claim and I'm gonna call you out. Pretty simple, this game.
Your chart is fine in that it exposes the limitations and false promise of PMs. Let's look at gold performance vs the Japanese yen---the country with the highest debt to GDP ratio, a ratio that the PM bulls hold to highest reverence. Terrible performance of gold vs yen. Kinda blows that "fundamental" out of the water. The creators of the chart cant even compute the return in 2002 or 2003. Terrible presentation. I would expect more in a PM forum. Perhaps I expect too much.
And I've contributed more than enough over the last decade. If you haven't learned by now, you wont.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The facts. . . they is what they is. Your post is typical and complete confirmation.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Yup....I expect to much.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Lower your expectations of others and raise those for yourself.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I see that the U.S. Dollar Index is dropping close to 100. I believe that we will see it drop well below 100, and that precious metals will gain from the drop.
My opinion only. Your mileage may vary.
TD
Below 100, down almost a point today.
Bump
Here's an interesting gold chart. Kinda makes you go "h'mm."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Bump
I'd rather bring> @derryb said:
Seems trend is already declining. And best time to stack is when CB are selling.
Hmmmm...indeed.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
ttt
–John Adams, 1826
Bump
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Rather than using the peak gold prices, I'd consider a regression line representing the midpoint between the highs & lows to be more relevant. The slope of the regression line is still about the same, but the implication is that the trendline has broken out already. Even so, we've seen this movie before. Better to manage your assets over time than to try and time your trades. Is it time to buy? Sure, if your finances are already in order.
I knew it would happen.
bump
Silver down about 14% in the last 14 days...feels like a roller coaster.
The roller coaster is heading down..............
Still dropping! Anyone want to throw out a prediction around where it will settle out?
Good deals with KollectorKing, ChrisRx, Tookybandit, LukeMarshall, and Ajaan! On cointalk, Histman, Sakata, Blisskr, and a few others!
You can always ask "them". I do.
Or...it's easy to see if you know where to look.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Nice little BUMP back to $17
Bump
Bump
t
TTT Baby! BFT!!!
Welcome back.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Welcome back gsa1fan
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
TTT
I am surprised that the current turmoil in the U.S. Government is not driving the dollar down and gold up.
Fake turmoil?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I think he is referring to the stock market doing well, the increase in jobs, the economy expanding, energy independence, increase in consumer confidence, etc.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Yes, the Economy is doing well thanks to eight years of good leadership prior to Jan. 20, 2017, but please re-read what I said, or have somebody read it to you.