Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
metal prices holding while oil suffers and dollar index is not suffering. This is not normal and is a good sign for metals.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>metal prices holding while oil suffers and dollar index is not suffering. This is not normal and is a good sign for metals. >>
It's good. But metals have rallied up a long ways in 6-7 weeks. The next 10 trading days into end of month OpEx and FOMC meeting will probably present some strong obstacles. A return to the gold $1134-$1154 range wouldn't surprise me. The spot gold chart is starting to show a lot more gaps in the down direction which suggests to me the boyz are lining up to change direction. The net short silver commercial COT move last week was huge. Gold left behind an acceleration gap at 1179 on the rally up to 1189. Then this morning's rapid dip to 1174 cleared that up...and then put down a replacement gap at 1178. Not quite liking that kind of action.
U.S. Dollar quite a bit stronger today. Might affect metals.
Might not.
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
Originally posted by: CaptHenway U.S. Dollar quite a bit stronger today. Might affect metals. Might not.
always does.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Trying to rerun my roller coaster picture and keep getting an Error Code 113. What does that mean?
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
Trying to rerun my roller coaster picture and keep getting an Error Code 113. What does that mean?
It means we have new software that still has a few bugs to work out.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Jobs data on Friday will determine price movement. Good numbers will hammer metals and increase odds of token rate hike. FED wants a rate hike so that it has something to take away when the time comes.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Originally posted by: derryb Jobs data on Friday will determine price movement. Good numbers will hammer metals and increase odds of token rate hike. FED wants a rate hike so that it has something to take away when the time comes.
Good call... PM's taking a hit ...
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
Originally posted by: derryb Jobs data on Friday will determine price movement. Good numbers will hammer metals and increase odds of token rate hike. FED wants a rate hike so that it has something to take away when the time comes.
Good call... PM's taking a hit ...
Anyone looking past the cheers will be taking advantage of the metal price drop:
- Workers aged 55 and over: +378,000
- Workers aged 25-54: -35,000
Jobs data for these two age groups would be reversed if we were truely in an economic recovery. These numbers indicate that a lot of full time jobs were converted to part time slots that retirees are taking to supplement their fixed, suffering income. Converting full time work to part time work enables the employer to avoid the cost of employee benefits. Retirees normally receive such benefits as part of their retirement packages and are more willing to work simply for wages.
The newly declared unemployment rate of 5% would be in the 20% range if it included those who have given up looking for work and are learning to make do with the entitlements provided by not working.
Investment decisions based on government provided data should be made only after the bow and wrapping paper have been removed. The knee jerk reaction of Wall Street to the latest data indicates there are many who did not look inside the box. Eventually the lid will not be able to contain the smell.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
The only (I was going to use the word "dire" for effect but thats too extreme) data I can find is that the US is near full employment and wages are beginning to rise.
Originally posted by: cohodk May I ask the source of your data derryb. I've look everywhere and cannot find such a breakdown by age as you have provided.
The only (I was going to use the word "dire" for effect but thats too extreme) data I can find is that the US is near full employment and wages are beginning to rise.
Sure. The BLS's Table A-9 (You didn't expect them to point this out in their "everything is awesome" press release did you?)
Compare the seasonally adjusted numbers for Sept 2015 to the Oct. 2015 numbers for the two age groups to see the gains/losses.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I saw that table and studied it closely and is why I question your presentation of the negativity of the data
Following this data on a month over month basis is like following gold day by day.
Look at the numbers year over year, or every 6 months and use rolling averages. Any interpretation otherwise presented would merely be an attempt at misrepresentation and would most likely be proven incorrect over time, which has been the case of anyone trying to prove a terrible economy over the last 5 years.
Did you know the number of full time workers is at an all time high?
Originally posted by: cohodk I saw that table and studied it closely and is why I question your presentation of the negativity of the data
Following this data on a month over month basis is like following gold day by day.
Look at the numbers year over year, or every 6 months and use rolling averages. Any interpretation otherwise presented would merely be an attempt at misrepresentation and would most likely be proven incorrect over time, which has been the case of anyone trying to prove a terrible economy over the last 5 years. Did you know the number of full time workers is at an all time high?
MY negativity of the data is based on the negative data.
By your own admission, the BLS's (and ultimately the FED's) use of the current monthly change is "an attempt at misrepresentation." I agree that their misrepresented rosey picture will "most likely be proven incorrect over time."
Looking at the "rolling averages:"
Those who gave up looking for a job (The Discouraged) are not counted as unemployed. If they were, unemployment would be in the 20% range.
Manufacturing jobs are not growing. Service jobs (i.e. waiters and bartenders) are the bulk of any gains.
10 full time jobs lost are now counted as 20 new jobs once 20 part time workers replace the 10 full time workers.
Older workers continue to replace younger workers as full time jobs become part time jobs. Replacing "working age" individuals with a greater number of retirees is not a sign of an improving economy. It is a sign of an economy in the midst of panic.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Originally posted by: cohodk You seem to think everyone is employable.
Lots more people this month than a year ago and I'm quite confident I'll write the same sentence a year from now.
I guess if I had one too many flecks of pepper on my filet I would complain also.
You miss the point. They are not employable because policy has destroyed their jobs. The lackluster performance of production jobs alone speaks ill of the future of production. Production, not waiting on tables, is the key to recovery. How long before waiters are waiting on waiters that are enjoying a lunch break?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
There is growth in jobs that can't be done by robots. Yes, "manufacturing jobs" are declining in proportion to increased automation. This is not new to the global economy.
Originally posted by: Baley There is growth in jobs that can't be done by robots. Yes, "manufacturing jobs" are declining in proportion to increased automation. This is not new to the global economy.
And it will continue. Get used to it.
Suggest you double check your "proportion" calculations. The biggest cause of production job loss is the actual losses in production itself. You can't make and sell what people aren't (or can't) buying. The buck stops with the "policy" robots.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Originally posted by: cohodk You seem to think everyone is employable.
Lots more people this month than a year ago and I'm quite confident I'll write the same sentence a year from now.
I guess if I had one too many flecks of pepper on my filet I would complain also.
You miss the point. They are not employable because policy has destroyed their jobs. The lackluster performance of production jobs alone speaks ill of the future of production. ProductionProduction hen , not waiting on tables, is the key to recovery. How long before waiters are waiting on waiters that are enjoying a lunch break?
It's obvious you've never owned a business. Tell you what, I'll hire 95% of the working pop and you can have the rest. Remer the last kid picked to play on the team, there was a reason for that.
You really miss the point of s service economy, which us what the baby boomers demand. They want waiters and nurses and gardenrrs. They dont want more things. Economics is pretty easy when you und erstand demographics.
And I guess you didn't know that full time employment is at an all time high.
I'm well aware of the purpose of a service economy, it is to serve those that produce. When the number of producers declines while the number of those who provide a service grows you have a recipe for economic disaster. At some point everyone is serving and no one is producing. You forget that production is the engine of an economy.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
At some point everyone is serving and no one is producing. You forget that production is the engine of an economy.
Ridiculous case of reducto ad absurdum.
Of course there will always be "producers" Where does the food and booze come from, do you think? Does it just "appear" in servers and bartenders hands? What about the materials and tools that "service people" such as carpenters and plumbers and electricians use?
the "engine" of an economy runs on what the market demands of it. Again, get used to it.
So derryb is gonna live to be 500 years old to break even and all the miner 49'ers became rich, not the smart ones who went to service the miners... Sweet...
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Trying to rerun my roller coaster picture and keep getting an Error Code 113. What does that mean?
It means we have new software that still has a few bugs to work out.
Still won't work.
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
Comments
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What are you smiling about....
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Here we go again!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Wheeeeee!
And again!!!! >>
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<< <i>
Here we go again!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Wheeeeee!
And again!!!! >>
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<< <i>
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<< <i>
Here we go again!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Wheeeeee!
And again!!!! >>
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Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>metal prices holding while oil suffers and dollar index is not suffering. This is not normal and is a good sign for metals. >>
It's good. But metals have rallied up a long ways in 6-7 weeks. The next 10 trading days into end of month OpEx and FOMC meeting will probably present some strong obstacles. A return to the gold $1134-$1154 range wouldn't surprise me. The spot gold chart is starting to show a lot more gaps in the down direction which suggests to me the boyz are lining up to change direction. The net short silver commercial COT move last week was huge. Gold left behind an acceleration gap at 1179 on the rally up to 1189. Then this morning's rapid dip to 1174 cleared that up...and then put down a replacement gap at 1178. Not quite liking that kind of action.
Might not.
U.S. Dollar quite a bit stronger today. Might affect metals.
Might not.
always does.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Eject! Eject! Eject!
I knew it would happen.
Trying to rerun my roller coaster picture and keep getting an Error Code 113. What does that mean?
It means we have new software that still has a few bugs to work out.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Jobs data on Friday will determine price movement. Good numbers will hammer metals and increase odds of token rate hike. FED wants a rate hike so that it has something to take away when the time comes.
Good call... PM's taking a hit ...
Jobs data on Friday will determine price movement. Good numbers will hammer metals and increase odds of token rate hike. FED wants a rate hike so that it has something to take away when the time comes.
Good call... PM's taking a hit ...
Anyone looking past the cheers will be taking advantage of the metal price drop:
- Workers aged 55 and over: +378,000
- Workers aged 25-54: -35,000
Jobs data for these two age groups would be reversed if we were truely in an economic recovery. These numbers indicate that a lot of full time jobs were converted to part time slots that retirees are taking to supplement their fixed, suffering income. Converting full time work to part time work enables the employer to avoid the cost of employee benefits. Retirees normally receive such benefits as part of their retirement packages and are more willing to work simply for wages.
The newly declared unemployment rate of 5% would be in the 20% range if it included those who have given up looking for work and are learning to make do with the entitlements provided by not working.
Investment decisions based on government provided data should be made only after the bow and wrapping paper have been removed. The knee jerk reaction of Wall Street to the latest data indicates there are many who did not look inside the box. Eventually the lid will not be able to contain the smell.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Oct employment report
The only (I was going to use the word "dire" for effect but thats too extreme) data I can find is that the US is near full employment and wages are beginning to rise.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
May I ask the source of your data derryb. I've look everywhere and cannot find such a breakdown by age as you have provided.
Oct employment report
The only (I was going to use the word "dire" for effect but thats too extreme) data I can find is that the US is near full employment and wages are beginning to rise.
Sure. The BLS's Table A-9 (You didn't expect them to point this out in their "everything is awesome" press release did you?)
Compare the seasonally adjusted numbers for Sept 2015 to the Oct. 2015 numbers for the two age groups to see the gains/losses.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Following this data on a month over month basis is like following gold day by day.
Look at the numbers year over year, or every 6 months and use rolling averages. Any interpretation otherwise presented would merely be an attempt at misrepresentation and would most likely be proven incorrect over time, which has been the case of anyone trying to prove a terrible economy over the last 5 years.
Did you know the number of full time workers is at an all time high?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I saw that table and studied it closely and is why I question your presentation of the negativity of the data
Following this data on a month over month basis is like following gold day by day.
Look at the numbers year over year, or every 6 months and use rolling averages. Any interpretation otherwise presented would merely be an attempt at misrepresentation and would most likely be proven incorrect over time, which has been the case of anyone trying to prove a terrible economy over the last 5 years. Did you know the number of full time workers is at an all time high?
MY negativity of the data is based on the negative data.
By your own admission, the BLS's (and ultimately the FED's) use of the current monthly change is "an attempt at misrepresentation." I agree that their misrepresented rosey picture will "most likely be proven incorrect over time."
Looking at the "rolling averages:"
Those who gave up looking for a job (The Discouraged) are not counted as unemployed. If they were, unemployment would be in the 20% range.
Manufacturing jobs are not growing. Service jobs (i.e. waiters and bartenders) are the bulk of any gains.
10 full time jobs lost are now counted as 20 new jobs once 20 part time workers replace the 10 full time workers.
Older workers continue to replace younger workers as full time jobs become part time jobs. Replacing "working age" individuals with a greater number of retirees is not a sign of an improving economy. It is a sign of an economy in the midst of panic.
Elimination of the ficticious birth-death model's contribution to the current month's net jobs number would result in a net gain of only 126,000 jobs.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Lots more people this month than a year ago and I'm quite confident I'll write the same sentence a year from now.
I guess if I had one too many flecks of pepper on my filet I would complain also.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
You seem to think everyone is employable.
Lots more people this month than a year ago and I'm quite confident I'll write the same sentence a year from now.
I guess if I had one too many flecks of pepper on my filet I would complain also.
You miss the point. They are not employable because policy has destroyed their jobs. The lackluster performance of production jobs alone speaks ill of the future of production. Production, not waiting on tables, is the key to recovery. How long before waiters are waiting on waiters that are enjoying a lunch break?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
And it will continue. Get used to it.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
There is growth in jobs that can't be done by robots. Yes, "manufacturing jobs" are declining in proportion to increased automation. This is not new to the global economy.
And it will continue. Get used to it.
Suggest you double check your "proportion" calculations. The biggest cause of production job loss is the actual losses in production itself. You can't make and sell what people aren't (or can't) buying. The buck stops with the "policy" robots.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
You seem to think everyone is employable.
Lots more people this month than a year ago and I'm quite confident I'll write the same sentence a year from now.
I guess if I had one too many flecks of pepper on my filet I would complain also.
You miss the point. They are not employable because policy has destroyed their jobs. The lackluster performance of production jobs alone speaks ill of the future of production. ProductionProduction hen , not waiting on tables, is the key to recovery. How long before waiters are waiting on waiters that are enjoying a lunch break?
It's obvious you've never owned a business. Tell you what, I'll hire 95% of the working pop and you can have the rest. Remer the last kid picked to play on the team, there was a reason for that.
You really miss the point of s service economy, which us what the baby boomers demand. They want waiters and nurses and gardenrrs. They dont want more things. Economics is pretty easy when you und erstand demographics.
And I guess you didn't know that full time employment is at an all time high.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Ridiculous case of reducto ad absurdum.
Of course there will always be "producers" Where does the food and booze come from, do you think? Does it just "appear" in servers and bartenders hands? What about the materials and tools that "service people" such as carpenters and plumbers and electricians use?
the "engine" of an economy runs on what the market demands of it. Again, get used to it.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
TTT
Trying to rerun my roller coaster picture and keep getting an Error Code 113. What does that mean?
It means we have new software that still has a few bugs to work out.
Still won't work.