Why we should concern ourselves with a war on cash:
"Attempts to regulate the trade of physical gold and silver will not be far behind any restrictions on cash. Precious metals are an obvious target because they are a premier form of private, off-the-grid, and portable wealth."
Central banks work in harmony, usually led by the FED. Patriotism and wide oceans cannot change this. Contrary to popular belief, globalization is far from dead. The war on cash has to be a global effort or it will not succeed.
The Fed is going to have a new leader January 2018 if not before. Hopefully the new FED chairman will believe in liberty and reject the war on cash and precious metal regulation.
Well, someone could just not use it, and not pay it. Of course, not everyone is Entitled to any SS checks or Pension checks or "off he books" PM profits, nor any other Entitlements licit or illicit, so it would be very easy for them to just pack up their stuff and move to where the conditions are better for them, once they find a better 'ville to live and prosper in.
Problem for most is, they want to get the benefits that they feel entitled to (many will claim "they earned it") and keep the roots they've established, without paying the costs associated with maintining their collective behavior, and the costs associated with enforcing the laws against all the crime and other system gaming that those same folks insist on conducting.
So, I'll take that to mean you have no problem with depositing $1000 in the bank but only getting credit for $980 of it. Personally, I feel that if I deposit $1000 into my bank account I should be able to get the full $1000 back when I want it. . . but that's just me.
I agree, I tend to not like my money being skimmed either.
@cohodk said:
Is buying an ounce of gold for 1200, then trying to sell it back to the dealer for 1180, the same thing?
Maybe. Is the government now setting the daily price of gold? LOL
Worse....you are. Think about it.
Fortunately (I'm a buyer), for now, I have little input. When price finally becomes determined by true price discovery, it will be time to sell.
You didn't think about it enough. You're close though.
Regarding this thread...cash will still exchange hands long after we on this thread have passed our PMs to the next generation.
The national banking system and all currencies are tied to a government whose economic standing and credit worthiness is always changing. The scary thing is that the banking system and around 200 fiat currencies around the world are built upon a deck of cards. That piece of paper you say will be exchanged long after we have passed is losing value as I type this message. The paper itself is nothing more than carbon, hydrogen and oxygen which will decay over time just like it's fiat value.
The beauty of gold is that it is the most noble of metals. Not only is it scarce and takes labor, time and effort to mine, it also does not decay. I would bet that in 1,000 years the gold sitting in your safe deposit box or closet will still be around and it will still have value while that piece of paper in your pocket or the electronic credits in your bank account will have long vanished or become worthless through inflation.
There is a reason why society has chosen gold as the ultimate store of value. There is also a reason why our governments have created fiat as their store of value and wealth instead of gold
As long as man has lived, he has had to use something as a form of exchange for products or services . Electronic banking will go on and cash will change hands via paper or plastic for a long time to come. Just because coin collecting is dormant doesn't mean money is worthless. And as long as there is war, there will be a black market. Black markets matter.
@TwoSides2aCoin said:
As long as man has lived, he has had to use something as a form of exchange for products or services . Electronic banking will go on and cash will change hands via paper or plastic for a long time to come. Just because coin collecting is dormant doesn't mean money is worthless. And as long as there is war, there will be a black market. Black markets matter.
BMM...black markets matter...could be the forum's future motto, lol.
Something I did not know - Trump took gold a deposit of 3 kilos of gold as a security deposit from Apmex on a 10 year lease for the 50th floor of 40 Wall Street. Interesting.
@jmski52 said:
Something I did not know - Trump took gold a deposit of 3 kilos of gold as a security deposit from Apmex on a 10 year lease for the 50th floor of 40 Wall Street. Interesting.
Then don't hedge, keep all your eggs in one basket. Hedges are designed to go the opposite direction of what they protect. All cash? Good luck wid dat.
Trump lost $$$$ on his gold trade. So did most everyone who has been eating crumbs for the last 7 years. Those folks most be starving or malnourished. If only they were warned.
@cohodk said:
Trump lost $$$$ on his gold trade. So did most everyone who has been eating crumbs for the last 7 years. Those folks most be starving or malnourished. If only they were warned.
Did he sell it? Or is he still holding it as a hedge. Most of my gold is over seven years old and all of my gold is my hedge. I haven't lost any money. My loaf is intact.
cohudk, you really need to go smoewhere else. Folks here want to believe gold will come back before we die. We NEED for gold to come back before we die. Hell, we need for COINS to come back before we die.
All we have left to us in this cavern of despair around us is this sole refuge.
Have mercy, and leave us to buoy one another up with happy thoughts.
"Apparently beneficial to both sides of the transaction."
__His business prowess in full display. Lmao!!
If you call getting getting something now worth 70 cents on the dollar beneficial, then yeah, I guess so.
__
I get it that you don't want people buying metals instead of stocks and bonds. My understanding of financial planning is that one's asset allocations, buying & selling, and holding of assets should be tailored to their own unique financial situation.
Have you called Trump yet to let him know that he's been doing things all wrong? Or are you just mad that he's not a client?
Sorry all about the website's crazy lack of any ability to place italics or quotes where they need to be.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@dpoole said:
cohudk, you really need to go smoewhere else. Folks here want to believe gold will come back before we die. We NEED for gold to come back before we die. Hell, we need for COINS to come back before we die.
All we have left to us in this cavern of despair around us is this sole refuge.
Have mercy, and leave us to buoy one another up with happy thoughts.
Lol. I'll try. At least the fake news has subsided over the last year.
"Apparently beneficial to both sides of the transaction."
__His business prowess in full display. Lmao!!
If you call getting getting something now worth 70 cents on the dollar beneficial, then yeah, I guess so.
__
I get it that you don't want people buying metals instead of stocks and bonds. My understanding of financial planning is that one's asset allocations, buying & selling, and holding of assets should be tailored to their own unique financial situation.
Have you called Trump yet to let him know that he's been doing things all wrong? Or are you just mad that he's not a client?
Sorry all about the website's crazy lack of any ability to place italics or quotes where they need to be.
That's not what I want at all jmski.
What I do want is for folks to have knowledge and to look at investing in a pragmatic, logical and rational manner free of emotions such as fear, greed and apathy.
20/20 hindsight is a powerful tool. Let's try to develop that into something reasonably close to 20/20 foresight. It is possible
So, let's say that I bought a monster box of ASEs in 2011, and now I'm in a loss position on that monster box. However, I also bought monster boxes in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017.
What matters?
What if I only bought monster boxes in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017?
Does anything really change?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@jmski52 said:
So, let's say that I bought a monster box of ASEs in 2011, and now I'm in a loss position on that monster box. However, I also bought monster boxes in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017.
What matters?
What if I only bought monster boxes in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017?
Does anything really change?
What matters is when you sell them. Until then you have no gain or loss.
@jmski52 said:
So, let's say that I bought a monster box of ASEs in 2011, and now I'm in a loss position on that monster box. However, I also bought monster boxes in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017.
What matters?
What if I only bought monster boxes in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017?
Does anything really change?
Well, using the average price of silver during each of those years 2004-2017 you would have an average cost basis of about 17.50...or about the same price it is today. Inflation has averaged about 2% during that time, so your inflation adjusted average price is now about $22.50.
Silver has not protected you against inflation, nor has it protected you against anything except increasing your net worth.
You would have been better off in equities, which you hate, or US Treasury bonds, which you hate even more.
And you've incurred shipping and storage costs.
Even if you had invested in a 1 yr CD each of those years you would have a total return of about 17%. You need silver at $20.50 just to beat a CD during that time period. And you guys tell me that holding cash is stupid???!!!
What's changed? Your net worth compared to everyone else...you've fallen behind. Pitiful.
I love the way you play with numbers. If I had been buying stocks in a rising market, my stock holdings would have a high cost basis at a time when the potential downside seems pretty steep, but since I've been buying metals in a stagnant market, my cost basis in them has been moderate. Wasn't the objective to buy low and sell high? Doing that takes a little bit of obstinance, with which I'm amply blessed.
I think buying bonds depends pretty much totally on how much longer the Fed can manipulate interest rates, a risk I'm simply not willing to take. I don't hate stocks, several tech stocks gave me quite a ride during the tech boom and I bailed out just in time to buy some land and build a house. No, I don't hate stocks. I just don't trust them now.
The CDs that you mention that provided a 17% total return over a 13 year period - that's not very impressive, and the point should be that if a CD is only spitting out such a low yield, you might as well not take the risk. You're splitting hairs in an attempt to make it look like the metals aren't doing what they do best - which is to keep money far, far away from the clip artists and sticky-fingered middlemen as much as possible.
Has Corzine been prosecuted yet? I didn't think so.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I play with numbers but you think 17.50 is greater than 20.50??
I'll stand by my analysis, and you can stand by your fear and paranoia. Sorry to be blunt jmski, but my numbers are fact and your decisions are based on emotion.
There is no emotion involved in looking dispassionately at history and seeing that history repeats. Nope, just the hard cold historical facts and a bit of judgment. Why do you ignore history and keep feeding us static that it can't happen here?
Nobody should worry about "beating a CD", in my opinion. That's a red herring. They should worry about means testing and access to healthcare when they need it. They should worry about never having enough money to pay off a home mortgage. They should be quite concerned that different rules apply to different people.
You should read "the Forgotten Man" by Amity Schlaes, a respected author and WSJ writer. A and B get together and commiserate about D's plight. A and B then get together and decide that C should pay to fix D's problems. FDR lifted the concept and misapplied it to win his first term. It continues to happen. FDR called out D as "the forgotten man" while in reality, the forgotten man was C. You should worry about that, unless you happen to be A or B.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
coho is correct in his view that PMs have not been a good investment over the last few years. However I and many here don't buy PMs as a short/intermediate term investment - we have other vehicles with which we play the markets. Our PM holdings are in place to protect (hedge) those other places we have parked our cash. When looking at opinions on the near term performance of PMs one must decide why they hold PMs. Many of us have a longer vision when it comes to this part of our portfolio. Our longer vision has seen PMs provide us protection in the longer term and I expect more of the same. In "PM years" my $25 silver is still young and has yet to do its job while my older, $9 silver is performing as expected. Those who bought PMs in recent years strictly as a short/intermediate term investment need to re-evaluate their understanding of what affects PM prices.
FWIW I have great expectations on future silver performance and continue to add to the stack when the needle points to buy. This does not mean that I refrain from taking some profit when I expect price declines. Doing so provides me opportunity to repurchase at a lower price to fatten the long term stack.
Ok...if yoy think you all know so much. Suppose in Oct 2007 you knew the housing market was going to collapse, the SP500 was going to drop 58%, hundreds of banks would fail and the National debt would double.
Would you have increased your net worth over the next 9 1/2 years (to today) by buying the SP500 or silver?
Answer...SP500 has returned 6.5% annually vs 3.25% annually for silver.
So no matter what you think you might know about conspiracies, manipulation, corruption, supply/demand equation, average mining costs, economics ect, your silver investment was a dog.
You were so smart about predicting the future, yet you still made the wrong investment because your thoughts are based on fears, emotions, false promise, and marketing propaganda.
I've pounded this forum with the theories of intermarket relationships and relative value for over a decade. I have nothing more to prove to you. Now it's time for you to prove to you. Time will be your friend. Hopefully you have enough.
As usual, you miss the point. The PM portion of my portfolio is a hedge protecting the rest of my portfolio. If and when we experience a currency crisis all of your eggs will go bad. I'll be making an omelet. And unlike term insurance, my policy, if never needed, will always carry some face value.
Aside from "normal" currency devaluation via inflation I do know enough to know that we are (at least since 2008) flirting with a currency crisis. Such a crisis will be sudden and it will be brutal. My long term PMs are not an investment, they are my policy for such a crisis.
Coho, do you have homeowners insurance and what is your return on the premiums you pay? Do you advise your family to not pay their premiums because they could profit by putting the money elsewhere? It is not always about profit.
Funny discussion. I am sure everyone realizes that returns are generally associated with risk. For example, if I had bought ten year treasury bonds from 2007 till 2016, I would have had an annualized return of 5.03% vs. 8.65% for stocks (arithmetic averages). Does that mean bonds are a dog? In fact, the risk premium of stocks over bonds from 1928-2016 has been 6.24%. Why on earth would anyone buy a treasury bond? Why on earth are all these financial advisers and investment firms telling us to diversify and talking about asset allocation strategies?
The answer is based on the concept that assets that are not perfectly positively correlated will result in a portfolio that can reduce exposure to individual asset risk and potentially deliver a desired rate of return commensurate with the risk. Of course everyone must realize that these government bonds are much less risky than stocks especially when it comes to default risk.
To put it more bluntly, it would be foolish for anyone to invest all their portfolio in any one asset class unless they are willing to accept that level of risk for that potential return. It is much wiser to spread their investments across asset classes including cash, stocks, bonds, real estate, precious metals, guns, bullets, freeze dried food, water and anything else that diversifies away risk allowing you to sleep better at night.
One of the things that has always fascinated me the most about investment theory is that I can combine two or more assets and get the same expected rate of return with a lower level of risk.
So getting back to the original discussion, I don't think silver or gold is a dog nor do I think bonds are a dog. Instead, I look at them as a tool in my toolbox to help me diversify away risk. As someone once said, every dog has its day!
In general, all that stuff is true hch. Of course it is. Of course, I've owned stocks - and done well with them, as a matter of fact. However, since 2007/2008 I believe that we have had a fake market. Expanding the Fed's Balance Sheet, as it were. Pffft!!!
Every time I profess that I don't hate stocks and offer examples to illustrate it, cohodk waves his hands and says "emotion, emotion", when all I've said is that I think stocks and bonds are not a good idea right now. I've had that opinion since 2007, and since 2007 my net worth has advanced very nicely.
More importantly, I'm not exposed to the types of risks that I've stated over and over again.
Concerning diversification of risk, all you said is 100% accurate and I've chosen to take on the risks of owning metals in an extreme overweight position. That's my judgment call, based on what I see going on, and not upon the stock market action.
My position has been built by dollar-cost averaging. You can do the same with stocks or bonds or bitcoin. I'm doing it with metals. That is in fact a diversification of risk - over time, completely valid. I have zero concerns and continue to hold to the opinion that I'm making intelligent choices.
Things are not always as they appear. Stocks may appear logical to some, but not to me at this time. Maybe later, not now.
Opinions may vary.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Ask the people of Venezuela, who really did have a currency crises, which asset protected their savings better PM's or equities or real estate.
Not all insurance companies are equal derryb, make sure you choose the correct one. Not everyone needs homeowners insurance. Not everyone lives in a floodplain. Not everyone is concerned about an asteroid.
Insurance premiums are generally very small compared to the value of what is being insured. No sense in being overinsued. Insurance is generally used for an occurrence that has a swift and catastrophic result. A currency crises as you predict would not be swift, thus allowing reallocation or relocation. PMs are not insurance as you seen them.
Comments
Worse....you are. Think about it.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Fortunately (I'm a buyer), for now, I have little input. When price finally becomes determined by true price discovery, it will be time to sell.
Economic headlines the mainstream media are hiding from you.
Europe Eyes Sweeping Cash Ban: Are Gold & Silver Next?
Why we should concern ourselves with a war on cash:
"Attempts to regulate the trade of physical gold and silver will not be far behind any restrictions on cash. Precious metals are an obvious target because they are a premier form of private, off-the-grid, and portable wealth."
Economic headlines the mainstream media are hiding from you.
Europe ≠ United States
European Union ≠ United States
Americans love freedom.
Gold and Silver = Freedom
Central banks work in harmony, usually led by the FED. Patriotism and wide oceans cannot change this. Contrary to popular belief, globalization is far from dead. The war on cash has to be a global effort or it will not succeed.
Economic headlines the mainstream media are hiding from you.
The Fed is going to have a new leader January 2018 if not before. Hopefully the new FED chairman will believe in liberty and reject the war on cash and precious metal regulation.
You didn't think about it enough. You're close though.
Regarding this thread...cash will still exchange hands long after we on this thread have passed our PMs to the next generation.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I agree, I tend to not like my money being skimmed either.
My YouTube Channel
The national banking system and all currencies are tied to a government whose economic standing and credit worthiness is always changing. The scary thing is that the banking system and around 200 fiat currencies around the world are built upon a deck of cards. That piece of paper you say will be exchanged long after we have passed is losing value as I type this message. The paper itself is nothing more than carbon, hydrogen and oxygen which will decay over time just like it's fiat value.
The beauty of gold is that it is the most noble of metals. Not only is it scarce and takes labor, time and effort to mine, it also does not decay. I would bet that in 1,000 years the gold sitting in your safe deposit box or closet will still be around and it will still have value while that piece of paper in your pocket or the electronic credits in your bank account will have long vanished or become worthless through inflation.
There is a reason why society has chosen gold as the ultimate store of value. There is also a reason why our governments have created fiat as their store of value and wealth instead of gold
As long as man has lived, he has had to use something as a form of exchange for products or services . Electronic banking will go on and cash will change hands via paper or plastic for a long time to come. Just because coin collecting is dormant doesn't mean money is worthless. And as long as there is war, there will be a black market. Black markets matter.
BMM...black markets matter...could be the forum's future motto, lol.
Something I did not know - Trump took gold a deposit of 3 kilos of gold as a security deposit from Apmex on a 10 year lease for the 50th floor of 40 Wall Street. Interesting.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=ZjgUdNUXGFI
I knew it would happen.
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/830478/trump-takes-gold-for-rent
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
It has been reported that LA has a Trillion dollar untaxed underground economy. It's all about tax collections. IMHO
100% Positive BST transactions
His business prowess in full display. Lmao!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
His business prowess in full display. Lmao!!
Apparently beneficial to both sides of the transaction.
I knew it would happen.
If you call getting getting something now worth 70 cents on the dollar beneficial, then yeah, I guess so.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Maybe it's a hedge against the some of the billions of dollars he holds. 70 cents on the dollar? - this is how hedges work.
"Today we eat crumbs, tomorrow the loaf." - Jack Ratham, Black Sails.
Economic headlines the mainstream media are hiding from you.
Haha.....funny how we rationalize bad decisions.
Regarding the quote. ...many songs and movies have been made about tomorrow never coming.....is this another sequel?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Then don't hedge, keep all your eggs in one basket. Hedges are designed to go the opposite direction of what they protect. All cash? Good luck wid dat.
Economic headlines the mainstream media are hiding from you.
Trump lost $$$$ on his gold trade. So did most everyone who has been eating crumbs for the last 7 years. Those folks most be starving or malnourished. If only they were warned.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Did he sell it? Or is he still holding it as a hedge. Most of my gold is over seven years old and all of my gold is my hedge. I haven't lost any money. My loaf is intact.
Economic headlines the mainstream media are hiding from you.
Keep telling yourself that. Youve only hedged against building your net worth.
Poor bastards that haven't held their stack for a decade...only 15 more years to go.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
cohudk, you really need to go smoewhere else. Folks here want to believe gold will come back before we die. We NEED for gold to come back before we die. Hell, we need for COINS to come back before we die.
All we have left to us in this cavern of despair around us is this sole refuge.
Have mercy, and leave us to buoy one another up with happy thoughts.
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
@jmski52 said:
"Apparently beneficial to both sides of the transaction."
__His business prowess in full display. Lmao!!
If you call getting getting something now worth 70 cents on the dollar beneficial, then yeah, I guess so.
__
I get it that you don't want people buying metals instead of stocks and bonds. My understanding of financial planning is that one's asset allocations, buying & selling, and holding of assets should be tailored to their own unique financial situation.
Have you called Trump yet to let him know that he's been doing things all wrong? Or are you just mad that he's not a client?
Sorry all about the website's crazy lack of any ability to place italics or quotes where they need to be.
I knew it would happen.
Lol. I'll try. At least the fake news has subsided over the last year.
Viva la PM'S!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
That's not what I want at all jmski.
What I do want is for folks to have knowledge and to look at investing in a pragmatic, logical and rational manner free of emotions such as fear, greed and apathy.
20/20 hindsight is a powerful tool. Let's try to develop that into something reasonably close to 20/20 foresight. It is possible
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
And no, I wouldn't want Trump as a client. I don't want all the business, just the good business.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
So, let's say that I bought a monster box of ASEs in 2011, and now I'm in a loss position on that monster box. However, I also bought monster boxes in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017.
What matters?
What if I only bought monster boxes in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017?
Does anything really change?
I knew it would happen.
What matters is when you sell them. Until then you have no gain or loss.
Economic headlines the mainstream media are hiding from you.
Well, using the average price of silver during each of those years 2004-2017 you would have an average cost basis of about 17.50...or about the same price it is today. Inflation has averaged about 2% during that time, so your inflation adjusted average price is now about $22.50.
Silver has not protected you against inflation, nor has it protected you against anything except increasing your net worth.
You would have been better off in equities, which you hate, or US Treasury bonds, which you hate even more.
And you've incurred shipping and storage costs.
Even if you had invested in a 1 yr CD each of those years you would have a total return of about 17%. You need silver at $20.50 just to beat a CD during that time period. And you guys tell me that holding cash is stupid???!!!
What's changed? Your net worth compared to everyone else...you've fallen behind. Pitiful.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Keep the insurance.
Need currency crisis insurance? Depends on your perception
Economic headlines the mainstream media are hiding from you.
Insure with knowledge.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I love the way you play with numbers. If I had been buying stocks in a rising market, my stock holdings would have a high cost basis at a time when the potential downside seems pretty steep, but since I've been buying metals in a stagnant market, my cost basis in them has been moderate. Wasn't the objective to buy low and sell high? Doing that takes a little bit of obstinance, with which I'm amply blessed.
I think buying bonds depends pretty much totally on how much longer the Fed can manipulate interest rates, a risk I'm simply not willing to take. I don't hate stocks, several tech stocks gave me quite a ride during the tech boom and I bailed out just in time to buy some land and build a house. No, I don't hate stocks. I just don't trust them now.
The CDs that you mention that provided a 17% total return over a 13 year period - that's not very impressive, and the point should be that if a CD is only spitting out such a low yield, you might as well not take the risk. You're splitting hairs in an attempt to make it look like the metals aren't doing what they do best - which is to keep money far, far away from the clip artists and sticky-fingered middlemen as much as possible.
Has Corzine been prosecuted yet? I didn't think so.
I knew it would happen.
I play with numbers but you think 17.50 is greater than 20.50??
I'll stand by my analysis, and you can stand by your fear and paranoia. Sorry to be blunt jmski, but my numbers are fact and your decisions are based on emotion.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
There is no emotion involved in looking dispassionately at history and seeing that history repeats. Nope, just the hard cold historical facts and a bit of judgment. Why do you ignore history and keep feeding us static that it can't happen here?
Nobody should worry about "beating a CD", in my opinion. That's a red herring. They should worry about means testing and access to healthcare when they need it. They should worry about never having enough money to pay off a home mortgage. They should be quite concerned that different rules apply to different people.
You should read "the Forgotten Man" by Amity Schlaes, a respected author and WSJ writer. A and B get together and commiserate about D's plight. A and B then get together and decide that C should pay to fix D's problems. FDR lifted the concept and misapplied it to win his first term. It continues to happen. FDR called out D as "the forgotten man" while in reality, the forgotten man was C. You should worry about that, unless you happen to be A or B.
I knew it would happen.
coho is correct in his view that PMs have not been a good investment over the last few years. However I and many here don't buy PMs as a short/intermediate term investment - we have other vehicles with which we play the markets. Our PM holdings are in place to protect (hedge) those other places we have parked our cash. When looking at opinions on the near term performance of PMs one must decide why they hold PMs. Many of us have a longer vision when it comes to this part of our portfolio. Our longer vision has seen PMs provide us protection in the longer term and I expect more of the same. In "PM years" my $25 silver is still young and has yet to do its job while my older, $9 silver is performing as expected. Those who bought PMs in recent years strictly as a short/intermediate term investment need to re-evaluate their understanding of what affects PM prices.
FWIW I have great expectations on future silver performance and continue to add to the stack when the needle points to buy. This does not mean that I refrain from taking some profit when I expect price declines. Doing so provides me opportunity to repurchase at a lower price to fatten the long term stack.
Economic headlines the mainstream media are hiding from you.
Ok...if yoy think you all know so much. Suppose in Oct 2007 you knew the housing market was going to collapse, the SP500 was going to drop 58%, hundreds of banks would fail and the National debt would double.
Would you have increased your net worth over the next 9 1/2 years (to today) by buying the SP500 or silver?
Answer...SP500 has returned 6.5% annually vs 3.25% annually for silver.
So no matter what you think you might know about conspiracies, manipulation, corruption, supply/demand equation, average mining costs, economics ect, your silver investment was a dog.
You were so smart about predicting the future, yet you still made the wrong investment because your thoughts are based on fears, emotions, false promise, and marketing propaganda.
I've pounded this forum with the theories of intermarket relationships and relative value for over a decade. I have nothing more to prove to you. Now it's time for you to prove to you. Time will be your friend. Hopefully you have enough.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
As usual, you miss the point. The PM portion of my portfolio is a hedge protecting the rest of my portfolio. If and when we experience a currency crisis all of your eggs will go bad. I'll be making an omelet. And unlike term insurance, my policy, if never needed, will always carry some face value.
Aside from "normal" currency devaluation via inflation I do know enough to know that we are (at least since 2008) flirting with a currency crisis. Such a crisis will be sudden and it will be brutal. My long term PMs are not an investment, they are my policy for such a crisis.
Coho, do you have homeowners insurance and what is your return on the premiums you pay? Do you advise your family to not pay their premiums because they could profit by putting the money elsewhere? It is not always about profit.
Economic headlines the mainstream media are hiding from you.
Funny discussion. I am sure everyone realizes that returns are generally associated with risk. For example, if I had bought ten year treasury bonds from 2007 till 2016, I would have had an annualized return of 5.03% vs. 8.65% for stocks (arithmetic averages). Does that mean bonds are a dog? In fact, the risk premium of stocks over bonds from 1928-2016 has been 6.24%. Why on earth would anyone buy a treasury bond? Why on earth are all these financial advisers and investment firms telling us to diversify and talking about asset allocation strategies?
The answer is based on the concept that assets that are not perfectly positively correlated will result in a portfolio that can reduce exposure to individual asset risk and potentially deliver a desired rate of return commensurate with the risk. Of course everyone must realize that these government bonds are much less risky than stocks especially when it comes to default risk.
To put it more bluntly, it would be foolish for anyone to invest all their portfolio in any one asset class unless they are willing to accept that level of risk for that potential return. It is much wiser to spread their investments across asset classes including cash, stocks, bonds, real estate, precious metals, guns, bullets, freeze dried food, water and anything else that diversifies away risk allowing you to sleep better at night.
One of the things that has always fascinated me the most about investment theory is that I can combine two or more assets and get the same expected rate of return with a lower level of risk.
So getting back to the original discussion, I don't think silver or gold is a dog nor do I think bonds are a dog. Instead, I look at them as a tool in my toolbox to help me diversify away risk. As someone once said, every dog has its day!
In general, all that stuff is true hch. Of course it is. Of course, I've owned stocks - and done well with them, as a matter of fact. However, since 2007/2008 I believe that we have had a fake market. Expanding the Fed's Balance Sheet, as it were. Pffft!!!
Every time I profess that I don't hate stocks and offer examples to illustrate it, cohodk waves his hands and says "emotion, emotion", when all I've said is that I think stocks and bonds are not a good idea right now. I've had that opinion since 2007, and since 2007 my net worth has advanced very nicely.
More importantly, I'm not exposed to the types of risks that I've stated over and over again.
Concerning diversification of risk, all you said is 100% accurate and I've chosen to take on the risks of owning metals in an extreme overweight position. That's my judgment call, based on what I see going on, and not upon the stock market action.
My position has been built by dollar-cost averaging. You can do the same with stocks or bonds or bitcoin. I'm doing it with metals. That is in fact a diversification of risk - over time, completely valid. I have zero concerns and continue to hold to the opinion that I'm making intelligent choices.
Things are not always as they appear. Stocks may appear logical to some, but not to me at this time. Maybe later, not now.
Opinions may vary.
I knew it would happen.
Ask the people of Venezuela, who really did have a currency crises, which asset protected their savings better PM's or equities or real estate.
Not all insurance companies are equal derryb, make sure you choose the correct one. Not everyone needs homeowners insurance. Not everyone lives in a floodplain. Not everyone is concerned about an asteroid.
Insurance premiums are generally very small compared to the value of what is being insured. No sense in being overinsued. Insurance is generally used for an occurrence that has a swift and catastrophic result. A currency crises as you predict would not be swift, thus allowing reallocation or relocation. PMs are not insurance as you seen them.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Bitcoin is the future
since when is bitcoin cash?
It will be taxed as income when IRS finalizes how they're going to put in there taxation bracket it's between cash or commodity
1 Bitcoin = $1,156.15 cash. Via coinbase
Yeah. They just don't make gold and ground the way they used to. We just stack bricks on it or with it.