@derryb said:
at the moment: 15% equities, 15% real estate, 20% metal, 50% cash. No debt.
Well, that doesn't jibe with what you are posting. I presume the 50% cash is in U.S. Money Market Funds or the equivalent....15% in equities is way too low even if you are over 65 and retired; minimum based on MPT is 20-25% and usually higher.....15% in real estate is dollar-exposure AND an asset class riskier with more volatility than stocks....20% in metals I get, but they pay no dividends or interest and are poor performers over long-periods.
I don't know what equities, real estate (REITs ?), MMF, or metals you own.....but while it's an unorthodox portfolio it doesn't match up with the Doom-and-Gloom stuff you are posting here, Derry.
I wish you well but it wouldn't be one I recommend for the long haul. Ironically, I could live with the outsized metal position if you used more of the cash for long-term bonds and/or dividend equities.
@dcarr said:
Why ?
You seem to disagree with, or hate, 95% of what you read here.
So why do you persist all these years ? What is your objective ?
Why we're all here...debate...and help others.
.
I asked blitzeddude.
But it seems in your case that your real objective is to promote "Wall Street" as the go-to "investment" location.
In my case I have no interest in investing in anyone else's endeavors (buying stocks), or loaning money (purchasing bonds).
I have my own interests to invest in.
I have no Secret Sauce: depending on one's age, income and net worth...I recommend a balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds. 60/40 give-or-take depending on risk tolerance.
You're making alot of assumptions with that portfolio. Questionable assumptions at best.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@jmski52 said: I have no Secret Sauce: depending on one's age, income and net worth...I recommend a balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds. 60/40 give-or-take depending on risk tolerance.
You're making alot of assumptions with that portfolio. Questionable assumptions at best.
Questionable assumptions are overcome via knowledge and understanding, flexibility and diversification.
@dcarr said:
But it seems in your case that your real objective is to promote "Wall Street" as the go-to "investment" location.
In my case I have no interest in investing in anyone else's endeavors, or loaning money (by purchasing bonds).
I have my own interests to invest in.
If you ask BD here, it's in the public realm. If you only want a response from BD, then you DM him.
I'm not promoting anyone, certainly not a specific location. Everybody in the country is tied to "Wall Street" and the financial markets: direct investments (50% of the country)....401(k)'s....pensions....credit and liquidity and debt financing....equity IPOs....etc.
BTW, this isn't the 1920's where 90% of the people in finance worked on Wall Street or streets right nearby. Today, 6 million Americans work in Finance and only about 200,000 work in Manhattan, which includes Downtown and Midtown.
@jmski52 said:
You're making alot of assumptions with that portfolio. Questionable assumptions at best.
A rough portfolio that would probably be appropriate or at least "Do No Harm" for 90-95% of the population.
Everybody is different, of course, but nobody would get hurt by a properly diversified stocks/bonds/cash asset allocation. In fact, the government now does automatic enrollment in Target Retirement mutual funds that replicate what I gave above. More stocks and less bonds if you are in your 20's or 30's; more bonds and less stocks if you are in your 50's and 60's.
@jmski52 said: nobody would get hurt by a properly diversified stocks/bonds/cash asset allocation
You're making the very questionable assumption that 60/40 is a safe as it was 30 years ago. It's not.
I never said that.
I said you would not get hurt financially. You might lag a benchmark IF bond yields rose for a decade like they did in the 1970's. But most of the damage in bonds was already done in 2022-23.
For the first time in 15 years, you can get decent yields in MMFs and short-term bond funds. Spreads are still tight, that's true. And I do agree that stocks will lag going forward (certainly the S&P 493). But 60/40 will protect you and generate OK returns, if not world-beating returns.
A 60-40 portfolio is much "safer" than speculative investments in BitCoin, PMs, etc.
The AI revolution is the next "industrial revolution." If you have money to invest and can handle some risk, there is a chance to make generational returns in the next few years in the market if you invest in the correct tech companies (even just the mag 7).
Again, this is not for everyone, if you are living off fixed income, you probably shouldn't participate. Avoiding the market because you are afraid of an "impending crash" is one of the big mistakes retail investors make.
Precious metals for me are a store of value and of interest like collecting coins.
@derryb said:
at the moment: 15% equities, 15% real estate, 20% metal, 50% cash. No debt.
Well, that doesn't jibe with what you are posting. I presume the 50% cash is in U.S. Money Market Funds or the equivalent....15% in equities is way too low even if you are over 65 and retired; minimum based on MPT is 20-25% and usually higher.....15% in real estate is dollar-exposure AND an asset class riskier with more volatility than stocks....20% in metals I get, but they pay no dividends or interest and are poor performers over long-periods.
I don't know what equities, real estate (REITs ?), MMF, or metals you own.....but while it's an unorthodox portfolio it doesn't match up with the Doom-and-Gloom stuff you are posting here, Derry.
I wish you well but it wouldn't be one I recommend for the long haul. Ironically, I could live with the outsized metal position if you used more of the cash for long-term bonds and/or dividend equities.
Not looking for a financial advisor, but thanks for your concern.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
The abbreviation RGDS stands for “Regards” and is commonly used in emails and online messages as a way to send well wishes or express friendly sentiments. It is similar to saying “best wishes” or “take care.” People often use RGDS when communicating with friends, acquaintances, or colleagues.
Some other examples include HAND (Have a Nice Day), HAGD (Have a Great Day), BB (Bye Bye), TC (Take Care), at least it is not XOXO (Hugs and Kisses). LOL
@psuman08 said:
The AI revolution is the next "industrial revolution." If you have money to invest and can handle some risk, there is a chance to make generational returns in the next few years in the market if you invest in the correct tech companies (even just the mag 7).
Again, this is not for everyone, if you are living off fixed income, you probably shouldn't participate. Avoiding the market because you are afraid of an "impending crash" is one of the big mistakes retail investors make.
Precious metals for me are a store of value and of interest like collecting coins.
I sold my PLTR today. With a PE of 263 I think it was over heated.
@blitzdude said:
I was absolutely reading these boards back in 2006.
.
Why ?
You seem to disagree with, or hate, 95% of what you read here.
So why do you persist all these years ? What is your objective ?
.
To celebrate and accumulate the metal of kings. RGDS!
.
I see blitzdude has been "Banned". This looks like a permanent banning and not the temporary "jail".
I wonder if it was due to a specific posting or message ?
@derryb said:
Not looking for a financial advisor, but thanks for your concern.
And your money market fund is an investment in the U.S. Dollar.
It's a short term parking space until election ramifications become clearer. I consider a CD or a bond to be a dollar investment. I'm not buying anything with these dollars. . . yet.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@dcarr said:
But it seems in your case that your real objective is to promote "Wall Street" as the go-to "investment" location.
In my case I have no interest in investing in anyone else's endeavors, or loaning money (by purchasing bonds).
I have my own interests to invest in.
If you ask BD here, it's in the public realm. If you only want a response from BD, then you DM him.
I'm not promoting anyone, certainly not a specific location. Everybody in the country is tied to "Wall Street" and the financial markets: direct investments (50% of the country)....401(k)'s....pensions....credit and liquidity and debt financing....equity IPOs....etc.
BTW, this isn't the 1920's where 90% of the people in finance worked on Wall Street or streets right nearby. Today, 6 million Americans work in Finance and only about 200,000 work in Manhattan, which includes Downtown and Midtown.
.
I use "Wall Street" as a generalized term for organizations that cater to "retail investors", regardless of the physical location.
But I would argue that there is no such thing as a "retail investor". They are "retail speculators" at best, and "retail chumps" at worst.
@derryb said:
It's a short term parking space until election ramifications become clearer. I consider a CD or a bond to be a dollar> >investment. I'm not buying anything with these dollars. . . yet.
You most certainly DID buy something with those dollars. You bought dollar-denominated U.S. Government and Agency (and maybe some corporate) debt.
You bought King Dollar !!
Along with 90% of planet Earth, you recognized that the safest and best way to protect your hard-earned wealth is by holding something that was invested in U.S. dollar-denominated debt.
@dcarr said:
I use "Wall Street" as a generalized term for organizations that cater to "retail investors", regardless of the physical >location. But I would argue that there is no such thing as a "retail investor". They are "retail speculators" at best, and >"retail chumps" at worst.
They're doing fine. While they may not be beating the S&P 500 (especially since the rise of the Mag 7), they're doing well with DIY websites and cheap trading commissions.
Daytrading died in 2000,. There are very few speculators.
You are too dismissive of Americans taking charge of their financial lives.
@derryb said:
Not looking for a financial advisor, but thanks for your concern.
And your money market fund is an investment in the U.S. Dollar.
It's a short term parking space until election ramifications become clearer. I consider a CD or a bond to be a dollar investment. I'm not buying anything with these dollars. . . yet.
Cash, MMFs, CDs, and bonds would be more accurately viewed as long US dollar positions. Perfect if you're bullish about the future of the USD.
@dcarr said:
I use "Wall Street" as a generalized term for organizations that cater to "retail investors", regardless of the physical >location. But I would argue that there is no such thing as a "retail investor". They are "retail speculators" at best, and >"retail chumps" at worst.
They're doing fine. While they may not be beating the S&P 500 (especially since the rise of the Mag 7), they're doing well with DIY websites and cheap trading commissions.
Daytrading died in 2000,. There are very few speculators.
You are too dismissive over Americans taking charge of their financial lives.
.
I am personally against giving up control of "financial lives" to a broker or financial advisor.
If a so-called "retail investor" buys stock simply because they think that they can sell it for more later on, that is PURELY SPECULATIVE. A true investor (such as Warren Buffet) buys a company for the specific purpose of molding it into a better-functioning entity. So if a stock-holder is not an activist owner, then they are only a speculator.
A speculator can make (or lose) a lot of money. But I would not classify most such activity as "investing".
And your money market fund is an investment in the U.S. Dollar.
It's a short term parking space until election ramifications become clearer. I consider a CD or a bond to be a dollar investment. I'm not buying anything with these dollars. . . yet.
I have to agree with GF on this. And that money market can be gated, or bailed in. We don't get to know which banks or funds are in trouble. Tread lightly, derryb.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@Clackamas1 said:
I sold my PLTR today. With a PE of 263 I think it was over heated.
On a forward basis, it's somewhere between 80x and 110x. Not cheap, but not quite at the level you cite.
I agree it is a little expensive, but with this new AI industrial revolution, old models of valuation are not necessarily applicable. There is nothing wrong with taking profits, I, however, think there is a lot of upside in the coming years and I see no reason to jump off now as a long-term investor. When the fundamentals, momentum or leadership change I will re-evaluate.
@dcarr said:
I use "Wall Street" as a generalized term for organizations that cater to "retail investors", regardless of the physical >location. But I would argue that there is no such thing as a "retail investor". They are "retail speculators" at best, and >"retail chumps" at worst.
They're doing fine. While they may not be beating the S&P 500 (especially since the rise of the Mag 7), they're doing well with DIY websites and cheap trading commissions.
Daytrading died in 2000,. There are very few speculators.
You are too dismissive over Americans taking charge of their financial lives.
.
I am personally against giving up control of "financial lives" to a broker or financial advisor.
If a so-called "retail investor" buys stock simply because they think that they can sell it for more later on, that is PURELY SPECULATIVE. A true investor (such as Warren Buffet) buys a company for the specific purpose of molding it into a better-functioning entity. So if a stock-holder is not an activist owner, then they are only a speculator.
A speculator can make (or lose) a lot of money. But I would not classify most such activity as "investing".
.
Dan, I could not disagree with this more. Day trading is not what I am talking about. I am fortunate to be able to manage my company 401K myself. I do the research and enjoy staying on top of the market, so I realize I am not like most retailer investors. I am not speculating but making educated investments in companies or sectors (ETFs) that I find attractive based on my research. My father was in agriculture (meaning he had no Wall St background) began investing in stocks and mutual funds in the 1970s and it has created life changing wealth that most of his peers (the bank savers / CD investors) could not dream of.
There are good advisors and there are absolute thieves. A good advisor works with you and tailors plan specifically for your goals, risk tolerance, etc. I am fortunate to have a great investment advisor that manages the rest of my market investments. I am not an activist, molding the company "into a better functioning entity," but enjoy the benefits of owning my small piece of a company (and the financial rewards).
I enjoy coin collecting and PMs, but they are just a store of value.
@dcarr said:
I use "Wall Street" as a generalized term for organizations that cater to "retail investors", regardless of the physical >location. But I would argue that there is no such thing as a "retail investor". They are "retail speculators" at best, and >"retail chumps" at worst.
They're doing fine. While they may not be beating the S&P 500 (especially since the rise of the Mag 7), they're doing well with DIY websites and cheap trading commissions.
Daytrading died in 2000,. There are very few speculators.
You are too dismissive over Americans taking charge of their financial lives.
.
I am personally against giving up control of "financial lives" to a broker or financial advisor.
If a so-called "retail investor" buys stock simply because they think that they can sell it for more later on, that is PURELY SPECULATIVE. A true investor (such as Warren Buffet) buys a company for the specific purpose of molding it into a better-functioning entity. So if a stock-holder is not an activist owner, then they are only a speculator.
A speculator can make (or lose) a lot of money. But I would not classify most such activity as "investing".
I'm not so sure.
As there are no sure things, all investing is speculating in one way or the other whether the investor is actively involved or not. If I am going to start and personally work a gold mine, sure I will make an investment but I will also be speculating that it will be a profitable endeavor.
I agree it is a little expensive, but with this new AI industrial revolution, old models of valuation are not necessarily applicable.
The old models of valuation are always applicable. The higher the P/E, the more speculative it is. That's just a fact - it doesn't mean that the speculation is a bad one.
There is nothing wrong with taking profits, I, however, think there is a lot of upside in the coming years and I see no reason to jump off now as a long-term investor.
Long term, yes. But I've been reading that the current crop of AI companies aren't yet generating cash flow or profits. Is that not the case?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@jmski52 said:
I have to agree with GF on this. And that money market can be gated, or bailed in. We don't get to know which >banks or funds are in trouble. Tread lightly, derryb.
Rules put in place after 2008 have greatly increased the safety of MMFs. Even before the changes, in the 38 years of money market funds from 1970-2008 there were only 3 or 4 funds which "broke the buck" and they were all mismanaged.
@jmski52 said: And your money market fund is an investment in the U.S. Dollar.
It's a short term parking space until election ramifications become clearer. I consider a CD or a bond to be a dollar investment. I'm not buying anything with these dollars. . . yet.
I have to agree with GF on this. And that money market can be gated, or bailed in. We don't get to know which banks or funds are in trouble. Tread lightly, derryb.
Unfortunately one has to convert funds from liquidating an asset into US dollars before buying the next asset. If you want to consider that an investment in the dollar, feel free. Converting funds from selling one asset into a medium that is acceptable to buy the next investment is a necessity not a choice.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@jmski52 said: And your money market fund is an investment in the U.S. Dollar.
It's a short term parking space until election ramifications become clearer. I consider a CD or a bond to be a dollar investment. I'm not buying anything with these dollars. . . yet.
I have to agree with GF on this. And that money market can be gated, or bailed in. We don't get to know which banks or funds are in trouble. Tread lightly, derryb.
Unfortunately one has to convert funds from liquidating an asset into US dollars before buying the next asset. If you want to consider that an investment in the dollar, feel free. Converting funds from selling one asset into a medium that is acceptable to buy the next investment is a necessity not a choice.
Everything is an investment. I don't know if duration factors into it.
If you have cattle and you want gold:
You short your long cattle position and go long USD.
Then you short the USD position and go long gold.
The extra steps of course because of the difficulty of finding someone who wants to do the opposite (ie, wants to short gold and go long cattle). The term 'investment' is a distraction from the fact that you are longing and shorting positions in assets.
Everything is an investment. I don't know if duration factors into it.
If you have cattle and you want gold:
You short your long cattle position and go long USD.
Then you short the USD position and go long gold.
The extra steps of course because of the difficulty of finding someone who wants to do the opposite (ie, wants to short gold and go long cattle). The term 'investment' is a distraction from the fact that you are longing and shorting positions in assets.
In that case I am currently long dollars, but not for long. LOL
The only reason I am long dollars is I had to accept them in exchange for my equity position. Unfortunately one can not exchange MCD for the next equity investment without having to first move into dollars.
What we need is a local BRICS alternative that will allow us to bypass the dollar in such a scenario. LOL
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@dcarr said:
I use "Wall Street" as a generalized term for organizations that cater to "retail investors", regardless of the physical >location. But I would argue that there is no such thing as a "retail investor". They are "retail speculators" at best, and >"retail chumps" at worst.
They're doing fine. While they may not be beating the S&P 500 (especially since the rise of the Mag 7), they're doing well with DIY websites and cheap trading commissions.
Daytrading died in 2000,. There are very few speculators.
You are too dismissive over Americans taking charge of their financial lives.
.
I am personally against giving up control of "financial lives" to a broker or financial advisor.
If a so-called "retail investor" buys stock simply because they think that they can sell it for more later on, that is PURELY SPECULATIVE. A true investor (such as Warren Buffet) buys a company for the specific purpose of molding it into a better-functioning entity. So if a stock-holder is not an activist owner, then they are only a speculator.
A speculator can make (or lose) a lot of money. But I would not classify most such activity as "investing".
.
Dan, I could not disagree with this more. Day trading is not what I am talking about. I am fortunate to be able to manage my company 401K myself. I do the research and enjoy staying on top of the market, so I realize I am not like most retailer investors. I am not speculating but making educated investments in companies or sectors (ETFs) that I find attractive based on my research. My father was in agriculture (meaning he had no Wall St background) began investing in stocks and mutual funds in the 1970s and it has created life changing wealth that most of his peers (the bank savers / CD investors) could not dream of.
There are good advisors and there are absolute thieves. A good advisor works with you and tailors plan specifically for your goals, risk tolerance, etc. I am fortunate to have a great investment advisor that manages the rest of my market investments. I am not an activist, molding the company "into a better functioning entity," but enjoy the benefits of owning my small piece of a company (and the financial rewards).
I enjoy coin collecting and PMs, but they are just a store of value.
.
I'm not saying that "speculating" can't be "financially rewarding". In fact, it can often generate the highest returns of any activity. But I will call it what it is.
Buying a small share of a company that you have zero control over is definitely speculative.
$2800+ close by the end of the week?
It is interesting going back to the first posts on this thread. Here is the first reply 14 years ago a $17 swing in a day was remarkable. We may have $3000 gold by the end of the year.
"$1201 down to $1,190 and back to $1,207 in about 30 minutes. Quite a day!"
@jmski52 said: I agree it is a little expensive, but with this new AI industrial revolution, old models of valuation are not necessarily applicable.
The old models of valuation are always applicable. The higher the P/E, the more speculative it is. That's just a fact - it doesn't mean that the speculation is a bad one.
There is nothing wrong with taking profits, I, however, think there is a lot of upside in the coming years and I see no reason to jump off now as a long-term investor.
Long term, yes. But I've been reading that the current crop of AI companies aren't yet generating cash flow or profits. Is that not the case?
The companies buying all the NVDA chips (AMZN, META, GOOG, TESLA, etc) are most definitely profitable. The Mag 7 are not going anywhere but up over the next 5 years barring a complete collapse. This is the problem with folks that are not savvy investors trying to be traders. They read the stories of NVDA being up 150+%, get in and when it is down 10% the first month, they sell at a loss.
Are they seeing the full value of AI yet, no. They are investing in the future because their management is focused on 3-5 years out. The early winners of AI will reap most of the rewards.
@dcarr said:
I'm not saying that "speculating" can't be "financially rewarding". In fact, it can often generate the highest returns of any activity. But I will call it what it is.
Buying a small share of a company that you have zero control over is definitely speculative.
.
I have zero control over the PM markets too. In fact, I can learn more about a company I invest in than I can about COMEX- as has been discussed here since well before I joined in the conversations. Any investment you make is speculative except Treasuries (ducks and hides).
@Clackamas1 said:
$2800+ close by the end of the week?
It is interesting going back to the first posts on this thread. Here is the first reply 14 years ago a $17 swing in a day was remarkable. We may have $3000 gold by the end of the year.
"$1201 down to $1,190 and back to $1,207 in about 30 minutes. Quite a day!"
FINALLY! A gold related post in this thread. First one in days!
I think we could see $3000 by end of November, actually, if it goes along the path it has been.
@FredJRI said:
I don't usually invest in gold.... perhaps a few ounces and less NVDA is in order?
Most of us don't consider gold an "investment"...it's a speculation....doesn't pay interest or dividends.....buy coins or bars you like and you can at least enjoy them if they don't make you money.
@FredJRI said:
Not sure where it will be 3 months from n ow especially with elections
My best guess is up at least 30%
What is the 3 month outlook for gold?
Comsidering an investment between a stock and gold is fool's gold (no pun intended).
They shouldn't even be a consideration in your asset allocation decision.
@FredJRI said:
I don't usually invest in gold.... perhaps a few ounces and less NVDA is in order?
Most of us don't consider gold an "investment"...it's a speculation....doesn't pay interest or dividends.....buy coins or bars you like and you can at least enjoy them if they don't make you money.
Why wouldn't we consider it an investment? Unless you're referring to dental gold we're not buying it to consume or use up. It doesn't deteriorate or go bad or become obsolete. It's an asset that can always be resold and have value. Sounds like an investment to me.
Comments
Well, that doesn't jibe with what you are posting. I presume the 50% cash is in U.S. Money Market Funds or the equivalent....15% in equities is way too low even if you are over 65 and retired; minimum based on MPT is 20-25% and usually higher.....15% in real estate is dollar-exposure AND an asset class riskier with more volatility than stocks....20% in metals I get, but they pay no dividends or interest and are poor performers over long-periods.
I don't know what equities, real estate (REITs ?), MMF, or metals you own.....but while it's an unorthodox portfolio it doesn't match up with the Doom-and-Gloom stuff you are posting here, Derry.
I wish you well but it wouldn't be one I recommend for the long haul. Ironically, I could live with the outsized metal position if you used more of the cash for long-term bonds and/or dividend equities.
.
Why ?
You seem to disagree with, or hate, 95% of what you read here.
So why do you persist all these years ? What is your objective ?
.
Why we're all here...debate...and help others.
.
I asked blitzeddude.
But it seems in your case that your real objective is to promote "Wall Street" as the go-to "investment" location.
In my case I have no interest in investing in anyone else's endeavors (buying stocks), or loaning money (purchasing bonds).
I have my own interests to invest in.
.
I have no Secret Sauce: depending on one's age, income and net worth...I recommend a balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds. 60/40 give-or-take depending on risk tolerance.
You're making alot of assumptions with that portfolio. Questionable assumptions at best.
I knew it would happen.
Questionable assumptions are overcome via knowledge and understanding, flexibility and diversification.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
If you ask BD here, it's in the public realm. If you only want a response from BD, then you DM him.
I'm not promoting anyone, certainly not a specific location. Everybody in the country is tied to "Wall Street" and the financial markets: direct investments (50% of the country)....401(k)'s....pensions....credit and liquidity and debt financing....equity IPOs....etc.
BTW, this isn't the 1920's where 90% of the people in finance worked on Wall Street or streets right nearby. Today, 6 million Americans work in Finance and only about 200,000 work in Manhattan, which includes Downtown and Midtown.
A rough portfolio that would probably be appropriate or at least "Do No Harm" for 90-95% of the population.
Everybody is different, of course, but nobody would get hurt by a properly diversified stocks/bonds/cash asset allocation. In fact, the government now does automatic enrollment in Target Retirement mutual funds that replicate what I gave above. More stocks and less bonds if you are in your 20's or 30's; more bonds and less stocks if you are in your 50's and 60's.
nobody would get hurt by a properly diversified stocks/bonds/cash asset allocation
You're making the very questionable assumption that 60/40 is a safe as it was 30 years ago. It's not.
I knew it would happen.
I never said that.
I said you would not get hurt financially. You might lag a benchmark IF bond yields rose for a decade like they did in the 1970's. But most of the damage in bonds was already done in 2022-23.
For the first time in 15 years, you can get decent yields in MMFs and short-term bond funds. Spreads are still tight, that's true. And I do agree that stocks will lag going forward (certainly the S&P 493). But 60/40 will protect you and generate OK returns, if not world-beating returns.
A 60-40 portfolio is much "safer" than speculative investments in BitCoin, PMs, etc.
The AI revolution is the next "industrial revolution." If you have money to invest and can handle some risk, there is a chance to make generational returns in the next few years in the market if you invest in the correct tech companies (even just the mag 7).
Again, this is not for everyone, if you are living off fixed income, you probably shouldn't participate. Avoiding the market because you are afraid of an "impending crash" is one of the big mistakes retail investors make.
Precious metals for me are a store of value and of interest like collecting coins.
To celebrate and accumulate the metal of kings. RGDS!
What does "RGDS" stand for ?
Not looking for a financial advisor, but thanks for your concern.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
As I stated in another thread.
The abbreviation RGDS stands for “Regards” and is commonly used in emails and online messages as a way to send well wishes or express friendly sentiments. It is similar to saying “best wishes” or “take care.” People often use RGDS when communicating with friends, acquaintances, or colleagues.
Some other examples include HAND (Have a Nice Day), HAGD (Have a Great Day), BB (Bye Bye), TC (Take Care), at least it is not XOXO (Hugs and Kisses).
LOL
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
I sold my PLTR today. With a PE of 263 I think it was over heated.
.
I see blitzdude has been "Banned". This looks like a permanent banning and not the temporary "jail".
I wonder if it was due to a specific posting or message ?
.
Not to worry on the debt, while a keyboard exists.
And your money market fund is an investment in the U.S. Dollar.
I thought it had something to do with PMs.
It's a short term parking space until election ramifications become clearer. I consider a CD or a bond to be a dollar investment. I'm not buying anything with these dollars. . . yet.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
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I use "Wall Street" as a generalized term for organizations that cater to "retail investors", regardless of the physical location.
But I would argue that there is no such thing as a "retail investor". They are "retail speculators" at best, and "retail chumps" at worst.
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On a forward basis, it's somewhere between 80x and 110x. Not cheap, but not quite at the level you cite.
You most certainly DID buy something with those dollars. You bought dollar-denominated U.S. Government and Agency (and maybe some corporate) debt.
You bought King Dollar !!
Along with 90% of planet Earth, you recognized that the safest and best way to protect your hard-earned wealth is by holding something that was invested in U.S. dollar-denominated debt.
Congratulations !!!
They're doing fine. While they may not be beating the S&P 500 (especially since the rise of the Mag 7), they're doing well with DIY websites and cheap trading commissions.
Daytrading died in 2000,. There are very few speculators.
You are too dismissive of Americans taking charge of their financial lives.
Cash, MMFs, CDs, and bonds would be more accurately viewed as long US dollar positions. Perfect if you're bullish about the future of the USD.
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I am personally against giving up control of "financial lives" to a broker or financial advisor.
If a so-called "retail investor" buys stock simply because they think that they can sell it for more later on, that is PURELY SPECULATIVE. A true investor (such as Warren Buffet) buys a company for the specific purpose of molding it into a better-functioning entity. So if a stock-holder is not an activist owner, then they are only a speculator.
A speculator can make (or lose) a lot of money. But I would not classify most such activity as "investing".
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And your money market fund is an investment in the U.S. Dollar.
It's a short term parking space until election ramifications become clearer. I consider a CD or a bond to be a dollar investment. I'm not buying anything with these dollars. . . yet.
I have to agree with GF on this. And that money market can be gated, or bailed in. We don't get to know which banks or funds are in trouble. Tread lightly, derryb.
I knew it would happen.
I agree it is a little expensive, but with this new AI industrial revolution, old models of valuation are not necessarily applicable. There is nothing wrong with taking profits, I, however, think there is a lot of upside in the coming years and I see no reason to jump off now as a long-term investor. When the fundamentals, momentum or leadership change I will re-evaluate.
Dan, I could not disagree with this more. Day trading is not what I am talking about. I am fortunate to be able to manage my company 401K myself. I do the research and enjoy staying on top of the market, so I realize I am not like most retailer investors. I am not speculating but making educated investments in companies or sectors (ETFs) that I find attractive based on my research. My father was in agriculture (meaning he had no Wall St background) began investing in stocks and mutual funds in the 1970s and it has created life changing wealth that most of his peers (the bank savers / CD investors) could not dream of.
There are good advisors and there are absolute thieves. A good advisor works with you and tailors plan specifically for your goals, risk tolerance, etc. I am fortunate to have a great investment advisor that manages the rest of my market investments. I am not an activist, molding the company "into a better functioning entity," but enjoy the benefits of owning my small piece of a company (and the financial rewards).
I enjoy coin collecting and PMs, but they are just a store of value.
I'm not so sure.
As there are no sure things, all investing is speculating in one way or the other whether the investor is actively involved or not. If I am going to start and personally work a gold mine, sure I will make an investment but I will also be speculating that it will be a profitable endeavor.
I agree it is a little expensive, but with this new AI industrial revolution, old models of valuation are not necessarily applicable.
The old models of valuation are always applicable. The higher the P/E, the more speculative it is. That's just a fact - it doesn't mean that the speculation is a bad one.
There is nothing wrong with taking profits, I, however, think there is a lot of upside in the coming years and I see no reason to jump off now as a long-term investor.
Long term, yes. But I've been reading that the current crop of AI companies aren't yet generating cash flow or profits. Is that not the case?
I knew it would happen.
Rules put in place after 2008 have greatly increased the safety of MMFs. Even before the changes, in the 38 years of money market funds from 1970-2008 there were only 3 or 4 funds which "broke the buck" and they were all mismanaged.
Unfortunately one has to convert funds from liquidating an asset into US dollars before buying the next asset. If you want to consider that an investment in the dollar, feel free. Converting funds from selling one asset into a medium that is acceptable to buy the next investment is a necessity not a choice.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Everything is an investment. I don't know if duration factors into it.
If you have cattle and you want gold:
You short your long cattle position and go long USD.
Then you short the USD position and go long gold.
The extra steps of course because of the difficulty of finding someone who wants to do the opposite (ie, wants to short gold and go long cattle). The term 'investment' is a distraction from the fact that you are longing and shorting positions in assets.
In that case I am currently long dollars, but not for long. LOL
The only reason I am long dollars is I had to accept them in exchange for my equity position. Unfortunately one can not exchange MCD for the next equity investment without having to first move into dollars.
What we need is a local BRICS alternative that will allow us to bypass the dollar in such a scenario. LOL
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
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I'm not saying that "speculating" can't be "financially rewarding". In fact, it can often generate the highest returns of any activity. But I will call it what it is.
Buying a small share of a company that you have zero control over is definitely speculative.
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$2800+ close by the end of the week?
It is interesting going back to the first posts on this thread. Here is the first reply 14 years ago a $17 swing in a day was remarkable. We may have $3000 gold by the end of the year.
"$1201 down to $1,190 and back to $1,207 in about 30 minutes. Quite a day!"
The companies buying all the NVDA chips (AMZN, META, GOOG, TESLA, etc) are most definitely profitable. The Mag 7 are not going anywhere but up over the next 5 years barring a complete collapse. This is the problem with folks that are not savvy investors trying to be traders. They read the stories of NVDA being up 150+%, get in and when it is down 10% the first month, they sell at a loss.
Are they seeing the full value of AI yet, no. They are investing in the future because their management is focused on 3-5 years out. The early winners of AI will reap most of the rewards.
I have zero control over the PM markets too. In fact, I can learn more about a company I invest in than I can about COMEX- as has been discussed here since well before I joined in the conversations. Any investment you make is speculative except Treasuries (ducks and hides).
FINALLY! A gold related post in this thread. First one in days!
I think we could see $3000 by end of November, actually, if it goes along the path it has been.
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
Could see it next week if we have chaos on Tuesday night or any negative surprises.
There we go. $2800 tonight.
I don't usually invest in gold.... perhaps a few ounces and less NVDA is in order?
No doubt there will be surprises/issues.
Just curious NVDA has increased about 70% in the past 6 months and 350% in the past year.
Not sure where it will be 3 months from n ow especially with elections
My best guess is up at least 30%
What is the 3 month outlook for gold?
I expect the former may win.
Would that be a(+) or a (-) ? for gold in YHO ?
I think it will help NVDA ..regardless.
GOOG is up really nice today.
Most of us don't consider gold an "investment"...it's a speculation....doesn't pay interest or dividends.....buy coins or bars you like and you can at least enjoy them if they don't make you money.
Comsidering an investment between a stock and gold is fool's gold (no pun intended).
They shouldn't even be a consideration in your asset allocation decision.
Why wouldn't we consider it an investment? Unless you're referring to dental gold we're not buying it to consume or use up. It doesn't deteriorate or go bad or become obsolete. It's an asset that can always be resold and have value. Sounds like an investment to me.