Jmski already confirmed he would never buy a CD. So yeah, agreeing was certainly correct.
did he disagree that gold would benefit from rate cuts,
or did he disagree that rate cuts were coming.
we already know he would never buy a CD, and neither would I. I like to keep the cash liquid with MMs. My current MM is paying 5.3% until Dec. 1.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Been through this stuff before..... on days like this, pretty much everything takes a hit. Though I suppose if a person had the RIGHT TYPE of paper..... could probably be making some money today.
@tincup said:
So... what do you suggest? That I buy more paper? And trust the financial guys? Sure......
Sure....buy T-Bills....MMF ETFs....short-duration bond funds....has nothing to do with "trust" has to do with liquid markets and the global reserve financial superpower that is the U.S. Dollar and our financial markets.
The market for UST's and MBS will dwarf that for bullets, beans, and gold.
@tincup said:
Been through this stuff before..... on days like this, pretty much everything takes a hit. Though I suppose if a >person had the RIGHT TYPE of paper..... could probably be making some money today.
Remember....U.S. bond assets are UP. Yields are DOWN. Flight to quality...flight to safety.
The Dollar -- and U.S. fixed-income assets -- reign supreme. No doubt about it !
The Fed is pumping up the system - nothing more, nothing less. It ain’t coho buying those bonds.
It comes at a cost, and that cost will be reflected in high inflation, unless the system breaks and then it’s all over for stocks, bonds and real estate.
It’s not a question of “if”, but “when”. Got silver and/or gold?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@jmski52 said:
The Fed is pumping up the system - nothing more, nothing less. It ain’t coho buying those bonds.
The market disagrees given the level of rates.
It comes at a cost, and that cost will be reflected in high inflation, unless the system breaks and then it’s all over for stocks, bonds and real estate.
Again, the market disagrees predicting 10-year inflation under 3%.
It’s not a question of “if”, but “when”. Got silver and/or gold?
Not, it IS a question of WHEN. Because even if your scenario plays out but it takes 20 or 40 or 60 or 100 years to happen, it's meaningless. The money you lose from waiting for your scenario will dwarf any "savings" when the bad stuff hits.
That's the problem with doomsayers. Nobody sees how they actually do each year. It's like saying the NY Yankees can't remain a top team forever so let's not see if they make the playoffs or win the pennant or win the World Series.
Perma-bears never want to mark-to-market their predictions.
An argument can be made that the markets are so manipulated that we don't have true price discovery. so you can cite "the market" but is what we see in our charts an accurate reflection of the markets?
@jmski52 said:
The Fed is pumping up the system - nothing more, nothing less. It ain’t coho buying those bonds.
You're right. 10s and 10s of millions of other AMERICANS and millions of international folk and 1000s and 1000s of corporations and other entities are buying.
An argument can be made that the markets are so manipulated that we don't have true price discovery. so you can cite "the market" but is what we see in our charts an accurate reflection of the markets?
The millions and millions of retirees and 401K holders who have a 60/40 portfolio are so screwed. What the Fed doesn't destroy through inflation is at risk to be taken via bail-ins when the system locks up.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@jmski52 said:
The millions and millions of retirees and 401K holders who have a 60/40 portfolio are so screwed. What the Fed doesn't destroy through inflation is at risk to be taken via bail-ins when the system locks up.
An argument can be made that the markets are so manipulated that we don't have true price discovery. so you can cite "the market" but is what we see in our charts an accurate reflection of the markets?
The manipulation, at least since 2008, is accomplished by controlling the money supply that is available to put into the various markets. Soon to be lower interest rates are one way to increase the money supply. and therefore the demand for investments. QE (disguised under many names) is another way to increase the available money for investments. For all practical purposes the FED bank is the foot on the money supply gas pedal. True price discovery is always occurring. True value is what gets distorted.
Note the similarity of the increases in money supply to increases in various assets that benefited from more money.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@jmski52 said:
The millions and millions of retirees and 401K holders who have a 60/40 portfolio are so screwed. What the Fed doesn't destroy through inflation is at risk to be taken via bail-ins when the system locks up.
So how will you survive?
survival is guaranteed as long as the FED responds with "more money" and "lower rates." Want proof? Watch Wall Street's response to the next rate drop.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
An argument can be made that the markets are so manipulated that we don't have true price discovery. so you can cite "the market" but is what we see in our charts an accurate reflection of the markets?
Ok...please make the argument.
@jmski52 Answered it. The fed is buying their own bonds. Moving money from one pocket to the other. If the bonds were sold at a real auction the prices would be significantly different. There is insufficient demand at current rates for the volume of bonds being sold.
@jmski52 Answered it. The fed is buying their own bonds. Moving money from one pocket to the other. If the bonds were sold at a real auction the prices would be significantly different. There is insufficient demand at current rates for the volume of bonds being sold.
Loss of foreign buyers because the US stole the money from at least one of the big buyers is a major reason the FED has been force to become a big buyer. Weaponizing a currency only expedites the destruction of that currency.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@jmski52 Answered it. The fed is buying their own bonds. Moving money from one pocket to the other. If the bonds were sold at a real auction the prices would be significantly different. There is insufficient demand at current rates for the volume of bonds being sold.
Loss of foreign buyers because the US stole the money from at least one of the big buyers is a major reason the FED has been force to become a big buyer. Weaponizing a currency only expedites the destruction of that currency.
@jmski52 said:
The millions and millions of retirees and 401K holders who have a 60/40 portfolio are so screwed. What the Fed doesn't destroy through inflation is at risk to be taken via bail-ins when the system locks up.
So how will you survive?
A diversified portfolio including gold and silver! And not not blindly follow that "60/40" guideline that is a product of the financial advisor industry.
@jmski52 said:
The millions and millions of retirees and 401K holders who have a 60/40 portfolio are so screwed. What the Fed doesn't destroy through inflation is at risk to be taken via bail-ins when the system locks up.
So how will you survive?
A diversified portfolio including gold and silver! And not not blindly follow that "60/40" guideline that is a product of the financial advisor industry.
Jmski said the financial system will collapse and the G will take everyone's 401ks and retirement plans.
What would happen to society if "they" took all your money and you had nothing? What would society look like?
An argument can be made that the markets are so manipulated that we don't have true price discovery. so you can cite "the market" but is what we see in our charts an accurate reflection of the markets?
Ok...please make the argument.
@jmski52 Answered it. The fed is buying their own bonds. Moving money from one pocket to the other. If the bonds were sold at a real auction the prices would be significantly different. There is insufficient demand at current rates for the volume of bonds being sold.
No he didn't. If the Fed was buying then why has the FEDs holdings of Treasuries DECLINED by 1.3 Trillion....at a time when Natl debt has increased?
Somebody buying, but not the Fed.
Why would yields be higher? Because you say so? What rate would they be? Hiw would those rates compare to rates in other countries? How would that effect currencies? How would that effect global trade balances? How would those balances effect economic conditions in other countries? How would those conditions effect societies?
You guys just spout out BS without a grasp of intermarket and international relationships.
So you made the argument, but failed to provide evidence. Case dismissed.
By its own "reporting" the Fed, a privately-owned cartel, holds trillions and trillions of US debt. In other words, they own the government. This is the Big Money - and this privately-owned cartel is free to poof as many dollars into existence as need be to accomplish whatever they want to accomplish. Whatever they want - including the politicians of their choice.
You, nor anyone else knows how much off balance sheet money they deploy, or for what purposes.
The above chart goes into the $trillions. The derivatives complex is into the $quadrillions, and nobody knows what the net outcome of all these derivative contracts will be whenever the Fed decides to buy or sell Treasuries in order to push interest rates up or down.
Nobody ever heard of a "reverse repo" until the liquidity crisis in 2019. The big term thrown around for interest rates used to be the libor rate, but somehow that term was pushed aside in favor of "reverse repo". They simply invent new ways to manipulate rates and the money markets whenever the old ploys wear out. It's ALL a scam, intended to glue the pieces of the monetary system together, but it's coming apart. There's another liquidity crisis now.
What are the banksters gonna do now? Whatever they try, it's a fake system and we pay for it every time. The BRICS have figured it out and they ain't buying. Neither should anyone else.
You can worry all you want about the next election, or woke corporate policymaking, or banker wars popping up all over - but the real issue is what constitutes money. Trust in paper is going, going, gone. Figure it out - it ain't what the Fed produces and passes off as "money".
If ANYONE else did what the Fed does, they'd be in prison.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I recently converted some of my nest egg to bullion. Figured I’d sit on it for six months to a year- long enough to get us past the election, which I think will cause some upheaval regardless of which party gets elected. Then I’ll see which way the wind seems to be blowing.
I’m a numismatic collector who is in the game primarily for aesthetic reasons and historical interest. I’ve never been a stacker before. So I thought I’d read a little bit on this forum.
Unfortunately, I’m finding that 75-80% of this discussion flies right over my head.
@lordmarcovan said:
I’m a numismatic collector who is in the game primarily for aesthetic reasons and historical interest. I’ve never been a stacker before. So I thought I’d read a little bit on this forum.
Unfortunately, I’m finding that 75-80% of this discussion flies right over my head.
< swooshing noise > 🤔😂
Click back and read 5, 10, 15, 20 years ago you will see the same discussion. Come back 5, 10, 15. 20 years from now and it will still be the same talk about America and the financial system is about to collapse, the sky is falling BS. RGDS!
An argument can be made that the markets are so manipulated that we don't have true price discovery. so you can cite "the market" but is what we see in our charts an accurate reflection of the markets?
Ok...please make the argument.
@jmski52 Answered it. The fed is buying their own bonds. Moving money from one pocket to the other. If the bonds were sold at a real auction the prices would be significantly different. There is insufficient demand at current rates for the volume of bonds being sold.
No he didn't. If the Fed was buying then why has the FEDs holdings of Treasuries DECLINED by 1.3 Trillion....at a time when Natl debt has increased?
Somebody buying, but not the Fed.
Why would yields be higher? Because you say so? What rate would they be? Hiw would those rates compare to rates in other countries? How would that effect currencies? How would that effect global trade balances? How would those balances effect economic conditions in other countries? How would those conditions effect societies?
You guys just spout out BS without a grasp of intermarket and international relationships.
So you made the argument, but failed to provide evidence. Case dismissed.
FED temporarily reducing it's holdings (QT), but as issuance of even more debt occurs the FED is and will remain the buyer of last resort.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
A reverse repurchase agreement (reverse repo) is a financial transaction where the Federal Reserve (or another central bank) sells securities to financial institutions with an agreement to repurchase them at a later date. Here’s a step-by-step breakdown of how it works:
Initiation: The Federal Reserve sells government securities (like Treasury bonds) to a financial institution (e.g., a bank) with the promise to buy them back the next day.
Cash Flow: The financial institution pays cash to the Federal Reserve in exchange for the securities. This temporarily reduces the amount of cash in the banking system.
Repurchase: The next day, the Federal Reserve repurchases the securities at a slightly higher price, which includes interest. This returns the cash to the financial institution.
Liquidity Management: Reverse repos help the Federal Reserve manage the amount of money circulating in the economy. By temporarily removing cash from the system, they can control short-term interest rates and ensure financial stability.
Interest Rate Control: By adjusting the rate at which they conduct reverse repos, the Federal Reserve can influence the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight.
Example:
Imagine a bank has excess cash it wants to invest overnight. The Federal Reserve offers to sell it Treasury securities with an agreement to buy them back the next day. The bank earns a small interest on this transaction, and the Federal Reserve temporarily reduces the cash supply in the economy.
This arrangement appears to be getting close to an end and was intended to be a temporary program.
@Goldminers said:
A reverse repurchase agreement (reverse repo) is a financial transaction where the Federal Reserve (or another central bank) sells securities to financial institutions with an agreement to repurchase them at a later date. Here’s a step-by-step breakdown of how it works:
Initiation: The Federal Reserve sells government securities (like Treasury bonds) to a financial institution (e.g., a bank) with the promise to buy them back the next day.
Cash Flow: The financial institution pays cash to the Federal Reserve in exchange for the securities. This temporarily reduces the amount of cash in the banking system.
Repurchase: The next day, the Federal Reserve repurchases the securities at a slightly higher price, which includes interest. This returns the cash to the financial institution.
Liquidity Management: Reverse repos help the Federal Reserve manage the amount of money circulating in the economy. By temporarily removing cash from the system, they can control short-term interest rates and ensure financial stability.
Interest Rate Control: By adjusting the rate at which they conduct reverse repos, the Federal Reserve can influence the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight.
Example:
Imagine a bank has excess cash it wants to invest overnight. The Federal Reserve offers to sell it Treasury securities with an agreement to buy them back the next day. The bank earns a small interest on this transaction, and the Federal Reserve temporarily reduces the cash supply in the economy.
This arrangement appears to be getting close to an end and was intended to be a temporary program.
Exactly, simply another nothingburger. BOOMIN! RGDS!
An argument can be made that the markets are so manipulated that we don't have true price discovery. so you can cite "the market" but is what we see in our charts an accurate reflection of the markets?
Ok...please make the argument.
@jmski52 Answered it. The fed is buying their own bonds. Moving money from one pocket to the other. If the bonds were sold at a real auction the prices would be significantly different. There is insufficient demand at current rates for the volume of bonds being sold.
No he didn't. If the Fed was buying then why has the FEDs holdings of Treasuries DECLINED by 1.3 Trillion....at a time when Natl debt has increased?
Somebody buying, but not the Fed.
Why would yields be higher? Because you say so? What rate would they be? Hiw would those rates compare to rates in other countries? How would that effect currencies? How would that effect global trade balances? How would those balances effect economic conditions in other countries? How would those conditions effect societies?
You guys just spout out BS without a grasp of intermarket and international relationships.
So you made the argument, but failed to provide evidence. Case dismissed.
Your chart doesn't prove anything, only that holdings declined. The could be as a result of debt maturing and rolling off the balance sheets or selling more older notes than buying of new ones. Try again. The repo and reverse repo facilities are also examples of the fed manipulating the market to prevent or alter true price discovery.
Edited to add: How did they come to down the treasuries if they didn't buy them?
@ProofCollection said:
The repo and reverse repo facilities are also examples of the fed manipulating the market to prevent or alter true price discovery.
The FED dictates price discovery with its control over the amount of money available.
Imagine a coin auction where the FED walks in and gives everyone twice the money they brought to the auction. Guess what happens to bids and hammer prices.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@ProofCollection said:
The repo and reverse repo facilities are also examples of the fed manipulating the market to prevent or alter true price discovery.
The FED dictates price discovery with its control over the amount of money available.
How can the market discover the price if it's dictated?
@ProofCollection said:
The repo and reverse repo facilities are also examples of the fed manipulating the market to prevent or alter true price discovery.
The FED dictates price discovery with its control over the amount of money available.
How can the market discover the price if it's dictated?
FED indirectly dictates market price by increasing or decreasing the supply of money used by the market participants to set price with their "bid." Simply a matter of more dollars chasing the same assets. The holders of those dollars, put into or removed from circulation by FED policy, determine price.
Using my example: "Imagine a coin auction where the FED walks in and gives everyone twice the money they brought to the auction. Guess what happens to bids and hammer prices." The FED simply increased the available money that is used by the bidders to determine market price.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@ProofCollection said:
An argument can be made that the markets are so manipulated that we don't have true price discovery. so you can cite "the market" but is what we see in our charts an accurate reflection of the markets?
As a famous commentator once said.....when you cash your profits at the bank from investing correctly and getting the trend right, they don't rescind it because the market "shouldn't" have moved or the timing was curious or whatever.
@jmski52 said:
The Fed is buying their own bonds.
There’s no millions of anyone buying their garp except themselves with money that they create out of nothing.
It would be considered to be highly criminal if anyone else did it.
They're unwinding QE into QT but seasonal factors and Treasury cash management will slow it over the next few months.
Plenty of people are buying a 4-year treasury at 4% after years of buying below 3% and 2%.l
It's called Central Banking and if anybody else both bought and sold the bonds it wouldn't be illegal.
$3,000 by 2030....$5,000 by 2035. PTs could be too low but will hold them for now.
Gold is a measurement of the dollar. The more dollars it takes to buy gold the less value in the dollar. If you own more dollars than you do gold you should not be wishing for new gold highs, it only reflects new dollar lows. Unfortunately there is no turning back on dollar devaluation. Convert your dollars into dollar insurance.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
$3,000 by 2030....$5,000 by 2035. PTs could be too low but will hold them for now.
Gold is a measurement of the dollar. The more dollars it takes to buy gold the less value in the dollar. If you own more dollars than you do gold you should not be wishing for new gold highs, it only reflects new dollar lows. Unfortunately there is no turning back on dollar devaluation. Convert your dollars into dollar insurance.
Comments
Jmski already confirmed he would never buy a CD. So yeah, agreeing was certainly correct.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
did he disagree that gold would benefit from rate cuts,
or did he disagree that rate cuts were coming.
we already know he would never buy a CD, and neither would I. I like to keep the cash liquid with MMs. My current MM is paying 5.3% until Dec. 1.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Revised....100 bps. Right where I want to be.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Gold down 1.5%....silver down 4%.....BitCoin down 8%.
So much for preserving wealth during times of turbulence.
And while this thread > @GoldFinger1969 said:
So... what do you suggest? That I buy more paper? And trust the financial guys? Sure......
Been through this stuff before..... on days like this, pretty much everything takes a hit. Though I suppose if a person had the RIGHT TYPE of paper..... could probably be making some money today.
Sure....buy T-Bills....MMF ETFs....short-duration bond funds....has nothing to do with "trust" has to do with liquid markets and the global reserve financial superpower that is the U.S. Dollar and our financial markets.
The market for UST's and MBS will dwarf that for bullets, beans, and gold.
Remember....U.S. bond assets are UP. Yields are DOWN. Flight to quality...flight to safety.
The Dollar -- and U.S. fixed-income assets -- reign supreme. No doubt about it !
$2409 gold as of this writing.
Nothing new. Same old gold.
We used to use a phrase “ what’s a buck?” , when rounding up or down.
Now it’s “What’s a hundred bucks ?”
I’ll take gold for a hundred bucks less.
" The Dollar -- and U.S. fixed-income assets -- reign supreme. No doubt about it !
"
To use the old saying.... as good as gold, right?!
The Fed is pumping up the system - nothing more, nothing less. It ain’t coho buying those bonds.
It comes at a cost, and that cost will be reflected in high inflation, unless the system breaks and then it’s all over for stocks, bonds and real estate.
It’s not a question of “if”, but “when”. Got silver and/or gold?
I knew it would happen.
The market disagrees given the level of rates.
Again, the market disagrees predicting 10-year inflation under 3%.
Not, it IS a question of WHEN. Because even if your scenario plays out but it takes 20 or 40 or 60 or 100 years to happen, it's meaningless. The money you lose from waiting for your scenario will dwarf any "savings" when the bad stuff hits.
That's the problem with doomsayers. Nobody sees how they actually do each year. It's like saying the NY Yankees can't remain a top team forever so let's not see if they make the playoffs or win the pennant or win the World Series.
Perma-bears never want to mark-to-market their predictions.
An argument can be made that the markets are so manipulated that we don't have true price discovery. so you can cite "the market" but is what we see in our charts an accurate reflection of the markets?
You're right. 10s and 10s of millions of other AMERICANS and millions of international folk and 1000s and 1000s of corporations and other entities are buying.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Ok...please make the argument.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The Fed is buying their own bonds.
There’s no millions of anyone buying their garp except themselves with money that they create out of nothing.
It would be considered to be highly criminal if anyone else did it.
I knew it would happen.
Who do you think owns shares of the govt bond funds that are held in millions and millions of 401k plans?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The millions and millions of retirees and 401K holders who have a 60/40 portfolio are so screwed. What the Fed doesn't destroy through inflation is at risk to be taken via bail-ins when the system locks up.
I knew it would happen.
So how will you survive?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The manipulation, at least since 2008, is accomplished by controlling the money supply that is available to put into the various markets. Soon to be lower interest rates are one way to increase the money supply. and therefore the demand for investments. QE (disguised under many names) is another way to increase the available money for investments. For all practical purposes the FED bank is the foot on the money supply gas pedal. True price discovery is always occurring. True value is what gets distorted.
Note the similarity of the increases in money supply to increases in various assets that benefited from more money.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
survival is guaranteed as long as the FED responds with "more money" and "lower rates." Want proof? Watch Wall Street's response to the next rate drop.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@jmski52 Answered it. The fed is buying their own bonds. Moving money from one pocket to the other. If the bonds were sold at a real auction the prices would be significantly different. There is insufficient demand at current rates for the volume of bonds being sold.
Loss of foreign buyers because the US stole the money from at least one of the big buyers is a major reason the FED has been force to become a big buyer. Weaponizing a currency only expedites the destruction of that currency.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Keep dreaming......RGDS!
A diversified portfolio including gold and silver! And not not blindly follow that "60/40" guideline that is a product of the financial advisor industry.
Jmski said the financial system will collapse and the G will take everyone's 401ks and retirement plans.
What would happen to society if "they" took all your money and you had nothing? What would society look like?
How would you survive?
Why do yall think you live in a vacuum.?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
No he didn't. If the Fed was buying then why has the FEDs holdings of Treasuries DECLINED by 1.3 Trillion....at a time when Natl debt has increased?
Somebody buying, but not the Fed.
Why would yields be higher? Because you say so? What rate would they be? Hiw would those rates compare to rates in other countries? How would that effect currencies? How would that effect global trade balances? How would those balances effect economic conditions in other countries? How would those conditions effect societies?
You guys just spout out BS without a grasp of intermarket and international relationships.
So you made the argument, but failed to provide evidence. Case dismissed.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
By its own "reporting" the Fed, a privately-owned cartel, holds trillions and trillions of US debt. In other words, they own the government. This is the Big Money - and this privately-owned cartel is free to poof as many dollars into existence as need be to accomplish whatever they want to accomplish. Whatever they want - including the politicians of their choice.
You, nor anyone else knows how much off balance sheet money they deploy, or for what purposes.
The above chart goes into the $trillions. The derivatives complex is into the $quadrillions, and nobody knows what the net outcome of all these derivative contracts will be whenever the Fed decides to buy or sell Treasuries in order to push interest rates up or down.
Nobody ever heard of a "reverse repo" until the liquidity crisis in 2019. The big term thrown around for interest rates used to be the libor rate, but somehow that term was pushed aside in favor of "reverse repo". They simply invent new ways to manipulate rates and the money markets whenever the old ploys wear out. It's ALL a scam, intended to glue the pieces of the monetary system together, but it's coming apart. There's another liquidity crisis now.
What are the banksters gonna do now? Whatever they try, it's a fake system and we pay for it every time. The BRICS have figured it out and they ain't buying. Neither should anyone else.
You can worry all you want about the next election, or woke corporate policymaking, or banker wars popping up all over - but the real issue is what constitutes money. Trust in paper is going, going, gone. Figure it out - it ain't what the Fed produces and passes off as "money".
If ANYONE else did what the Fed does, they'd be in prison.
I knew it would happen.
I recently converted some of my nest egg to bullion. Figured I’d sit on it for six months to a year- long enough to get us past the election, which I think will cause some upheaval regardless of which party gets elected. Then I’ll see which way the wind seems to be blowing.
I’m a numismatic collector who is in the game primarily for aesthetic reasons and historical interest. I’ve never been a stacker before. So I thought I’d read a little bit on this forum.
Unfortunately, I’m finding that 75-80% of this discussion flies right over my head.
< swooshing noise > 🤔😂
Click back and read 5, 10, 15, 20 years ago you will see the same discussion. Come back 5, 10, 15. 20 years from now and it will still be the same talk about America and the financial system is about to collapse, the sky is falling BS. RGDS!
FED temporarily reducing it's holdings (QT), but as issuance of even more debt occurs the FED is and will remain the buyer of last resort.
Yields will determine if the FED has to buy what others do not want.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Perhaps jmski will listen to your words when you agreed that the FED is not buying all the debt.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
You think that the Fed doesn’t have 2 sets of books? Get real.
I knew it would happen.
When the facts don't support our narrative, just change the facts. Easy peasy. Lol. We are so weak.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
A reverse repurchase agreement (reverse repo) is a financial transaction where the Federal Reserve (or another central bank) sells securities to financial institutions with an agreement to repurchase them at a later date. Here’s a step-by-step breakdown of how it works:
Initiation: The Federal Reserve sells government securities (like Treasury bonds) to a financial institution (e.g., a bank) with the promise to buy them back the next day.
Cash Flow: The financial institution pays cash to the Federal Reserve in exchange for the securities. This temporarily reduces the amount of cash in the banking system.
Repurchase: The next day, the Federal Reserve repurchases the securities at a slightly higher price, which includes interest. This returns the cash to the financial institution.
Liquidity Management: Reverse repos help the Federal Reserve manage the amount of money circulating in the economy. By temporarily removing cash from the system, they can control short-term interest rates and ensure financial stability.
Interest Rate Control: By adjusting the rate at which they conduct reverse repos, the Federal Reserve can influence the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight.
Example:
Imagine a bank has excess cash it wants to invest overnight. The Federal Reserve offers to sell it Treasury securities with an agreement to buy them back the next day. The bank earns a small interest on this transaction, and the Federal Reserve temporarily reduces the cash supply in the economy.
This arrangement appears to be getting close to an end and was intended to be a temporary program.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Exactly, simply another nothingburger. BOOMIN! RGDS!
Your chart doesn't prove anything, only that holdings declined. The could be as a result of debt maturing and rolling off the balance sheets or selling more older notes than buying of new ones. Try again. The repo and reverse repo facilities are also examples of the fed manipulating the market to prevent or alter true price discovery.
Edited to add: How did they come to down the treasuries if they didn't buy them?
The FED dictates price discovery with its control over the amount of money available.
Imagine a coin auction where the FED walks in and gives everyone twice the money they brought to the auction. Guess what happens to bids and hammer prices.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
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Keep that head buried in the sand ... KABOOMIN!
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How can the market discover the price if it's dictated?
FED indirectly dictates market price by increasing or decreasing the supply of money used by the market participants to set price with their "bid." Simply a matter of more dollars chasing the same assets. The holders of those dollars, put into or removed from circulation by FED policy, determine price.
Using my example: "Imagine a coin auction where the FED walks in and gives everyone twice the money they brought to the auction. Guess what happens to bids and hammer prices." The FED simply increased the available money that is used by the bidders to determine market price.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
As a famous commentator once said.....when you cash your profits at the bank from investing correctly and getting the trend right, they don't rescind it because the market "shouldn't" have moved or the timing was curious or whatever.
Get it right, rewarded. Get it wrong, punished.
The market plays no favorites.
1st time closing over $2,500 on the DEC futures contract.
They're unwinding QE into QT but seasonal factors and Treasury cash management will slow it over the next few months.
Plenty of people are buying a 4-year treasury at 4% after years of buying below 3% and 2%.l
It's called Central Banking and if anybody else both bought and sold the bonds it wouldn't be illegal.
Gold up $55 to $2,547 today.
$3,000 by 2030....$5,000 by 2035. PTs could be too low but will hold them for now.
I hope that price target is too low or time too long cuz it's only a 6-7% annual increase.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Gold is a measurement of the dollar. The more dollars it takes to buy gold the less value in the dollar. If you own more dollars than you do gold you should not be wishing for new gold highs, it only reflects new dollar lows. Unfortunately there is no turning back on dollar devaluation. Convert your dollars into dollar insurance.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Wrong
RGDS!