Buyers can expect their gold to immediately lose around 5 percent of its value, according to Tom Graff, chief investment officer at the wealth advising company Facet. One pays a premium to buy and pays fees to sell. “You need a holding period that’s long enough to overwhelm that cost,” said Graff
The gold does not lose value just because the purchaser lacks a retail establishment to re-sell it. But of course the point is true as it is with any asset that there are transaction costs. Funny they don't mention costs and fees when buying stocks or mutual funds or other paper.
One forum member makes it a point to discuss transaction costs on paper silver.....which are actually MUCH LOWER...but he still doesn't get it.
Shoot...he rants about a 1% annual haircut while the "stacker" as derryb points out takes a 5% haircut immediately.
Weird.
.
Not everyone has the same transaction costs. Just because some people pay a 5% transaction cost doesn't mean that everyone does. Yesterday at the Denver Coin Expo I bought two 10-troy-oz 999 silver bars at "spot" from a dealer. If I wanted to sell them at spot I could easily do so at any similar venue.
I bought sterling at a yard sale yesterday for 10% of spot. So what?
You like to use generalizations when discussing the economy, but not never about precious metals.
And if I wanted to hold onto the bars for the long term they would not evaporate at the rate of half a percent per year like SLV does.
.
You have no costs associated with holding bars? What is "long term"? Suppose you wanted to have exposure to silver for 6 months, or a week, or 3 years?
Suppose you wanted to have exposure to silver for 6 months, or a week, or 3 years?
That simply means that you think that you have an edge over other short-term traders and that you're transaction costs matter more than if you were an actual investor in silver.
So what?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Buyers can expect their gold to immediately lose around 5 percent of its value, according to Tom Graff, chief investment officer at the wealth advising company Facet. One pays a premium to buy and pays fees to sell. “You need a holding period that’s long enough to overwhelm that cost,” said Graff
and this is the difference between flipping and stacking. Stack on.
Like those folk who stacked ASE last year at $45+???
Silver went up and they still lose $$$$.
Maybe they should bought something different and actually increased their wealth.
.
I don't personally know anyone who has ever paid $45 for a generic Silver Eagle.
I don't personally know anyone who walked on the moon, so therefore it never happened?
Lots of comments earlier in this thread by your fellow comrades saying those high premiums were due to strong demand. Are you now disagreeing with them?
And, of course, you fail to consider that if the price of silver were to drop significantly from here, the premiums on preferred forms of physical silver would likely increase which would mitigate losses.
Was this the case last year?
The market price of physical piece of silver, combined with the premium on it, is less volatile than any "paper" silver price.
.
No it isnt.
.
Speculative paper contracts are always more volatile than the underlying physical market.
Remember when crude oil contracts were trading at NEGATIVE $40 per barrel ?
Physical bullion buyers & sellers are price sensitive. When the "spot" price drops, sellers are reluctant to sell at the lower price and so they demand higher premiums. When the "spot" price goes up, buyers are reluctant to pay the higher price and so the buyers demand lower premiums. The net result is that paper contracts can have wide fluctuations in price but the total price at which physical bullion trades at is somewhat more stable.
You can't base all your conclusions about the bullion (and other) markets based on the last few years because that was a severe aberration as a result of the "Covid" epidemic and shut-down of the economy.
Suppose you wanted to have exposure to silver for 6 months, or a week, or 3 years?
short term exposure should be done with a derivative that can be bought and sold easily at little overhead expense.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@derryb said: Suppose you wanted to have exposure to silver for 6 months, or a week, or 3 years?
short term exposure should be done with a derivative that can be bought and sold easily at little overhead expense.
There you go. And some may even view short term as 10-20 years, especially those who think 120 year moving averages are important.
@derryb said: Suppose you wanted to have exposure to silver for 6 months, or a week, or 3 years?
short term exposure should be done with a derivative that can be bought and sold easily at little overhead expense.
There you go. And some may even view short term as 10-20 years, especially those who think 120 year moving averages are important.
.
Short-term exposure can be done with SLV and the like. I wouldn't necessarily say that it should be done that way, however. Personally, I will not buy into it.
But the other question is why would someone want "short-term" exposure in the first place, to something that is basically an alternative "off the grid" type of asset. That is more of a long-term holding as a portion of one's total assets.
But the other question is why would someone want "short-term" exposure in the first place, to something that is basically an alternative "off the grid" type of asset. That is more of a long-term holding as a portion of one's total assets.
There are times when it is also a good short term investment as recently demonstrated
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
But the other question is why would someone want "short-term" exposure in the first place, to something that is basically an alternative "off the grid" type of asset. That is more of a long-term holding as a portion of one's total assets.
There are times when it is also a good short term investment as recently demonstrated
.
Looking back at price history, sure you could say that I could have bought SLV on XXX date and sold a few days or a week later. That is true for any asset. But without knowing what the price will do in the short term future, speculating on SLV is just a form of gambling and the speculator is not the "house".
But the other question is why would someone want "short-term" exposure in the first place, to something that is basically an alternative "off the grid" type of asset. That is more of a long-term holding as a portion of one's total assets.
There are times when it is also a good short term investment as recently demonstrated
.
Looking back at price history, sure you could say that I could have bought SLV on XXX date and sold a few days or a week later. That is true for any asset. But without knowing what the price will do in the short term future, speculating on SLV is just a form of gambling and the speculator is not the "house".
Speculating with paper during an upswing is a cheaper and quicker way to make a PM play. The only person that should be buying physical on current dips is the long term stacker. I'm a speculator and a stacker so I do both.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@derryb said: Suppose you wanted to have exposure to silver for 6 months, or a week, or 3 years?
short term exposure should be done with a derivative that can be bought and sold easily at little overhead expense.
There you go. And some may even view short term as 10-20 years, especially those who think 120 year moving averages are important.
.
Short-term exposure can be done with SLV and the like. I wouldn't necessarily say that it should be done that way, however. Personally, I will not buy into it.
But the other question is why would someone want "short-term" exposure in the first place, to something that is basically an alternative "off the grid" type of asset. That is more of a long-term holding as a portion of one's total assets.
.
Maybe one views PMs like marlin fishing. Hours and hours of sheer boredom interrupted by a few moments of exciting chaos.
Buyers can expect their gold to immediately lose around 5 percent of its value, according to Tom Graff, chief investment officer at the wealth advising company Facet. One pays a premium to buy and pays fees to sell. “You need a holding period that’s long enough to overwhelm that cost,” said Graff
The gold does not lose value just because the purchaser lacks a retail establishment to re-sell it. But of course the point is true as it is with any asset that there are transaction costs. Funny they don't mention costs and fees when buying stocks or mutual funds or other paper.
@stevek said:
In this era of governments printing money and inflation, 3k gold doesn't look unattainable at all.
It actually seems quite reasonable.
It's not a question of if, but when. The bigger question is...do we hit $5,000 by 2035 ?
Hope it doesn't take long.
.
So now you are rooting for the failure of the US Dollar and the demise of America ?
That is what you repeatedly accused others of doing.
You could make the argument that it has already failed. I'm not sure a doubling of gold price means failure of the US Dollar and demise of America though. That would be like $50k gold IMO.
Little doubt that the chinese public is driving the current market:
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
"This is a big problem. Remember that the Fed is still a bank, i.e. it has financial obligations, liabilities, and depositors that it needs to pay. For example, commercial banks like JP Morgan and Bank of America have deposited a total of $3.4 trillion of their customers’ money, i.e. YOUR money, with the Fed. And the Treasury Department holds another $700 billion deposit at the Fed."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@derryb said: "This is a big problem. Remember that the Fed is still a bank, i.e. it has financial obligations, liabilities, and >depositors that it needs to pay. For example, commercial banks like JP Morgan and Bank of America have deposited >a total of $3.4 trillion of their customers’ money, i.e. YOUR money, with the Fed. And the Treasury >Department holds another $700 billion deposit at the Fed."
The Treasury Market Account is used for open market operations and dollar management.
The information on JPM and BAC is wrong. They do not have anywhere near those amounts on deposit with the Fed.
@derryb said: "This is a big problem. Remember that the Fed is still a bank, i.e. it has financial obligations, liabilities, and >depositors that it needs to pay. For example, commercial banks like JP Morgan and Bank of America have deposited >a total of $3.4 trillion of their customers’ money, i.e. YOUR money, with the Fed. And the Treasury >Department holds another $700 billion deposit at the Fed."
The Treasury Market Account is used for open market operations and dollar management.
The information on JPM and BAC is wrong. They do not have anywhere near those amounts on deposit with the Fed.
"commercial banks like JP Morgan and Bank of America have deposited a total of $3.4 trillion of their customers’ money"
All commercial banks, not just JPM and BAC
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Yes, every run has a blow off peak, but we're far from there. this is a monthly chart, we could have several years of vertical.
This absolutely reminds me of 1978, except that instead of the Hunt brothers, we have China, India (and others) lighting a fire under the PMs. Volatility is to be expected, and even embraced.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@jmski52 said: Yes, every run has a blow off peak, but we're far from there. this is a monthly chart, we could have several years of vertical.
This absolutely reminds me of 1978, except that instead of the Hunt brothers, we have China, India (and others) lighting a fire under the PMs. Volatility is to be expected, and even embraced.
I have been buying since 2000, I have some sub $300 gold and $2.75 silver. Just keep stacking. In my world this is part of a balanced portfolio. Some in bullion (unk to bars) bullion, substantial in rare coins, $Nice in real-estate, $$ in retirement and no debt. It is what my dad and all the people said to do. All of that was from hard work.
I have been buying since 2000, I have some sub $300 gold an $2.75 silver. Just keep stacking. In my world this part of a balanced portfolio. Some in bullion (unk to bards) bullion, substantial in rare coins, $Nice in real-estate, $$ in retirement and no debt. It is what my dad and all the people said to do. All of that was from hard work.
I agree. Well done!
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Unfortunately higher prices have halted my stacking. Did get in on a boatload of silver and gold maples from COSTCO when spot was lower and COSTCO hadn't quite learned how to properly price bullion. They have since caught on to "premiums."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Do you not follow what’s going on in the metals markets? Note that Jamie Dimon and 3 other major Western bank honchos have made special trips over to China in the past 4 weeks. What do YOU suppose that they’ve been “chatting” about. The banks are all sellouts. It’s not in your interest, or mine.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@jmski52 said: Must've been those Chinese manipulators.
Do you not follow what’s going on in the metals markets? Note that Jamie Dimon and 3 other major Western bank honchos have made special trips over to China in the past 4 weeks. What do YOU suppose that they’ve been “chatting” about. The banks are all sellouts. It’s not in your interest, or mine.
Why don't you tell us what this new conspiracy theory is. Inquiring m8nds want to know.
@jmski52 said: Must've been those Chinese manipulators.
Do you not follow what’s going on in the metals markets? Note that Jamie Dimon and 3 other major Western bank honchos have made special trips over to China in the past 4 weeks. What do YOU suppose that they’ve been “chatting” about. The banks are all sellouts. It’s not in your interest, or mine.
I doubt any of them are chatting about gutter metal. RGDS!
@jmski52 said: So what is the conspiracy we are supposed to see?
You’re the one touting some conspiracy. I’m just stating what I know about and asking if anyone else knows something that I don’t know.
A lot of people know something you don't.
But, twice, you've asked why Dimon was in China, when a simple interweb search, such as the link I provided would have answered your question.
What would YOU infer from his visit? You mention a relationship to JPM and Sinopec, so what is it that you would like us to see? Please awaken us unwoke folk.
@GoldFinger1969 said:
Still holding above $2,300....not bad.
BitCoin down ~ 15% from ATH and gold down about 4%.
Gold is comfortable above $2k now. The US Dollar index looks like it has a bunch of strength and momentum. I think the next few months could have strong headwinds for all physical assets.
@ProofCollection said:
Gold is comfortable above $2k now. The US Dollar index looks like it has a bunch of strength and momentum. I >think the next few months could have strong headwinds for all physical assets.
I can see that scenario. I do believe that while the dollar should weaken a bit longer-term it will not be a repeat of the 1970's where pronounced dollar weakness led to rising gold and PM prices.
If the dollar is the same level in 5-7 years or even higher, I do believe gold will be much higher based on S&D.
New all time high futures price this morning. $2454.50 exceeding $2454.20 from a few months ago. I'm sure it will go much further today and the coming days/weeks as the US dollar index has lost its upward momentum.
Comments
I bought sterling at a yard sale yesterday for 10% of spot. So what?
You like to use generalizations when discussing the economy, but not never about precious metals.
You have no costs associated with holding bars? What is "long term"? Suppose you wanted to have exposure to silver for 6 months, or a week, or 3 years?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Suppose you wanted to have exposure to silver for 6 months, or a week, or 3 years?
That simply means that you think that you have an edge over other short-term traders and that you're transaction costs matter more than if you were an actual investor in silver.
So what?
I knew it would happen.
.
Speculative paper contracts are always more volatile than the underlying physical market.
Remember when crude oil contracts were trading at NEGATIVE $40 per barrel ?
Physical bullion buyers & sellers are price sensitive. When the "spot" price drops, sellers are reluctant to sell at the lower price and so they demand higher premiums. When the "spot" price goes up, buyers are reluctant to pay the higher price and so the buyers demand lower premiums. The net result is that paper contracts can have wide fluctuations in price but the total price at which physical bullion trades at is somewhat more stable.
You can't base all your conclusions about the bullion (and other) markets based on the last few years because that was a severe aberration as a result of the "Covid" epidemic and shut-down of the economy.
.
gold?
Suppose you wanted to have exposure to silver for 6 months, or a week, or 3 years?
short term exposure should be done with a derivative that can be bought and sold easily at little overhead expense.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
There you go. And some may even view short term as 10-20 years, especially those who think 120 year moving averages are important.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
.
Short-term exposure can be done with SLV and the like. I wouldn't necessarily say that it should be done that way, however. Personally, I will not buy into it.
But the other question is why would someone want "short-term" exposure in the first place, to something that is basically an alternative "off the grid" type of asset. That is more of a long-term holding as a portion of one's total assets.
.
There are times when it is also a good short term investment as recently demonstrated
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
gold?
.
Looking back at price history, sure you could say that I could have bought SLV on XXX date and sold a few days or a week later. That is true for any asset. But without knowing what the price will do in the short term future, speculating on SLV is just a form of gambling and the speculator is not the "house".
.
Speculating with paper during an upswing is a cheaper and quicker way to make a PM play. The only person that should be buying physical on current dips is the long term stacker. I'm a speculator and a stacker so I do both.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Maybe one views PMs like marlin fishing. Hours and hours of sheer boredom interrupted by a few moments of exciting chaos.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Updated, gold hit $2450 tonight!
Or real estate.
In this era of governments printing money and inflation, 3k gold doesn't look unattainable at all.
It actually seems quite reasonable.
It's not a question of if, but when. The bigger question is...do we hit $5,000 by 2035 ?
In order for > @GoldFinger1969 said:
Hope it doesn't take long.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
.
So now you are rooting for the failure of the US Dollar and the demise of America ?
That is what you repeatedly accused others of doing.
.
You could make the argument that it has already failed. I'm not sure a doubling of gold price means failure of the US Dollar and demise of America though. That would be like $50k gold IMO.
Little doubt that the chinese public is driving the current market:
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Are you on another planet? I want gold at 5000. The USA will be doing just fine with gold at 5000.
If gold went to 20,000 folk would still be driving their cars to work, making dinner for the kiddos and complaining about nothing to watch on TV.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
the chinese public are limited to the amount of foreign currency they can send outside of china, $50,000. i guess if the institution takes rmb/yuan ??
what you'd have to say is chinese companies are doing it
here is a blurb from ft about pboc controlling imports to support the rmb/yuan
https://www.ft.com/content/b8406698-b98f-444b-b1a7-03c29f6f5779
FED insolvency (currently $900B in the hole) will drive gold demand as more and more sleepy heads wake up
"This is a big problem. Remember that the Fed is still a bank, i.e. it has financial obligations, liabilities, and depositors that it needs to pay. For example, commercial banks like JP Morgan and Bank of America have deposited a total of $3.4 trillion of their customers’ money, i.e. YOUR money, with the Fed. And the Treasury Department holds another $700 billion deposit at the Fed."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
$3,000 gold by 2030 and $5,000 by 2035 (if that happens; less sure than the other forecast) do NOT imply systemic U.S. problems.
These moves are based strictly on supply and demand fundamentals.
The Treasury Market Account is used for open market operations and dollar management.
The information on JPM and BAC is wrong. They do not have anywhere near those amounts on deposit with the Fed.
"commercial banks like JP Morgan and Bank of America have deposited a total of $3.4 trillion of their customers’ money"
All commercial banks, not just JPM and BAC
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Only $3000 by 2030?
Can't you see the chart is going parabolic?
it has gone vertical.
that means the inevitable crash and a years and years long consolidation
who knows when it gets there
Yes, every run has a blow off peak, but we're far from there. this is a monthly chart, we could have several years of vertical.
Yes, every run has a blow off peak, but we're far from there. this is a monthly chart, we could have several years of vertical.
This absolutely reminds me of 1978, except that instead of the Hunt brothers, we have China, India (and others) lighting a fire under the PMs. Volatility is to be expected, and even embraced.
I knew it would happen.
I have been buying since 2000, I have some sub $300 gold and $2.75 silver. Just keep stacking. In my world this is part of a balanced portfolio. Some in bullion (unk to bars) bullion, substantial in rare coins, $Nice in real-estate, $$ in retirement and no debt. It is what my dad and all the people said to do. All of that was from hard work.
I have been buying since 2000, I have some sub $300 gold an $2.75 silver. Just keep stacking. In my world this part of a balanced portfolio. Some in bullion (unk to bards) bullion, substantial in rare coins, $Nice in real-estate, $$ in retirement and no debt. It is what my dad and all the people said to do. All of that was from hard work.
I agree. Well done!
I knew it would happen.
Unfortunately higher prices have halted my stacking. Did get in on a boatload of silver and gold maples from COSTCO when spot was lower and COSTCO hadn't quite learned how to properly price bullion. They have since caught on to "premiums."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Metals dropped overnight. Doesn’t change the fundamentals that are obvious to all.
I knew it would happen.
Must've been those Chinese manipulators. Oh well maybe in another decade. :Roll
Must've been those Chinese manipulators.
Do you not follow what’s going on in the metals markets? Note that Jamie Dimon and 3 other major Western bank honchos have made special trips over to China in the past 4 weeks. What do YOU suppose that they’ve been “chatting” about. The banks are all sellouts. It’s not in your interest, or mine.
I knew it would happen.
…except at the mint gold is over $3k. So do you trust hucksters or your government on valid pricing ?
Why don't you tell us what this new conspiracy theory is. Inquiring m8nds want to know.
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/jpmorgans-dimon-visit-mainland-china-first-time-4-years-sources-2023-05-05/#:~:text=HONG KONG/SYDNEY/NEW YORK,of tough COVID-19 curbs.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Why don't you tell us what this new conspiracy theory is. Inquiring m8nds want to know.
What do you know about the relationship between JPM and Sinopec?
I knew it would happen.
I doubt any of them are chatting about gutter metal. RGDS!
So what is the conspiracy we are supposed to see?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
So what is the conspiracy we are supposed to see?
You’re the one touting some conspiracy. I’m just stating what I know about and asking if anyone else knows something that I don’t know.
You seem to spend a lot of effort trying to derail any inquiries about the banks. Why is that?
I knew it would happen.
A lot of people know something you don't.
But, twice, you've asked why Dimon was in China, when a simple interweb search, such as the link I provided would have answered your question.
What would YOU infer from his visit? You mention a relationship to JPM and Sinopec, so what is it that you would like us to see? Please awaken us unwoke folk.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
If you want to know about Sinopec and JPM, go to Greg Hunter’s recent interview with Karen Kingston on USAWatchdog.com
I’m not getting into a debate with you that our hosts might construe as being political. Listen to the interview and figure it out for yourself.
I knew it would happen.
No interest in fishing polluted tributaries as the harvest is not fit for human consumption.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Still holding above $2,300....not bad.
BitCoin down ~ 15% from ATH and gold down about 4%.
Gold is comfortable above $2k now. The US Dollar index looks like it has a bunch of strength and momentum. I think the next few months could have strong headwinds for all physical assets.
I can see that scenario. I do believe that while the dollar should weaken a bit longer-term it will not be a repeat of the 1970's where pronounced dollar weakness led to rising gold and PM prices.
If the dollar is the same level in 5-7 years or even higher, I do believe gold will be much higher based on S&D.
New all time high futures price this morning. $2454.50 exceeding $2454.20 from a few months ago. I'm sure it will go much further today and the coming days/weeks as the US dollar index has lost its upward momentum.