Retail buying in China is through the roof and driving world prices up. This should lead to increased retail buying in most major economies.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@derryb said:
Retail buying in China is through the roof and driving world prices up. This should lead to increased retail buying in >most major economies.
Not sure as China may be a unique situation given the dislike by many for the CCP and the fear of monetary policies there. The bricks of the BRICs are not as solid as some would assume !!
I did mention retail Indian and Chinse buying here over a year ago.
What we are seeing is an increase in public demand. As uncertainty increases, gold's value increases. Appears the what I have been espousing for years ("gold's price is determined by faith in the currency") is playing out.
An increase in demand will reduce available supply, resulting in even higher prices. And to double down, rising prices make it harder to pull it from the hands of its owner.
I believe we are witnessing this process in it's early stages. If it continues to grow, prices could explode. If uncertainty wanes, prices will drop quickly. This uncertainty is in the hands of FED, elected leaders and the press that is the ultimate source of affecting our uncertainty level.
The question on the future price of gold should be this: "Will the uncertainty in the minds of current buyers and future buyers grow are will it fade away." Answer this and stand to profit on either side of the trade.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@derryb, do you think the public demand might be coming from Millennials? I was kind of surprised to read a couple articles recently suggesting that they are buying more gold than the two earlier gens... X and BB.
@RobM said: @derryb, do you think the public demand might be coming from Millennials? I was kind of surprised to read a couple articles recently suggesting that they are buying more gold than the two earlier gens... X and BB.
Requests I receive for gold information are about 40% under age 40 and 60% over age 40. I believe we have many buyers who might not know what they should about the products. Likely paying high premiums for non-premium products. But, if their fears materialize they will not be under water for long.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
do you think the public demand might be coming from Millennials? I was kind of surprised to read a couple articles recently suggesting that they are buying more gold than the two earlier gens... X and BB.
This is surprising, considering the trend away from the use of coins and cash, the trend toward cell phone payment apps, and increased credit card limits by the banks. Maybe the idea of sound money is making a comeback?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@jmski52 said: do you think the public demand might be coming from Millennials? I was kind of surprised to read a couple articles recently suggesting that they are buying more gold than the two earlier gens... X and BB.
This is surprising, considering the trend away from the use of coins and cash, the trend toward cell phone payment apps, and increased credit card limits by the banks. Maybe the idea of sound money is making a comeback?
I suspect that maybe some tik tok videos from young stackers gain traction from time to time...
@jmski52 said: do you think the public demand might be coming from Millennials? I was kind of surprised to read a couple articles recently suggesting that they are buying more gold than the two earlier gens... X and BB.
This is surprising, considering the trend away from the use of coins and cash, the trend toward cell phone payment apps, and increased credit card limits by the banks. Maybe the idea of sound money is making a comeback?
I suspect that maybe some tik tok videos from young stackers gain traction from time to time...
there's also help from Silver raiders and many other X and Reddit silver bug groups.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@RobM said: @derryb, do you think the public demand might be coming from Millennials? I was kind of surprised to read a >couple articles recently suggesting that they are buying more gold than the two earlier gens... X and BB.
@derryb said:
Retail buying in China is through the roof and driving world prices up. This should lead to increased retail buying in most major economies.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@derryb said:
Retail buying in China is through the roof and driving world prices up. This should lead to increased retail buying in most major economies.
thanks, as we know paper determines the base price of physical.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Chinese gold trading volatility has gone up 400% this year. The Chinese authorities are trying to tampen down speculation, not necessarily drop the price.
speculation and control of speculation affects the price.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Chinese gold trading volatility has gone up 400% this year. The Chinese authorities are trying to tampen down speculation, not necessarily drop the price.
China appears to have been in an accumulation phase for years, and it doesn't appear to be abating. The fact that both China and India - the two most populous countries - are accumulating both gold and silver aggressively - this should be a pretty good indication of where prices are headed for the precious metals, in addition to all other strategic and critical raw materials.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
It would be better and more accurate to portray gold as a good way to reduce a long US dollar position into an asset with no counterparty risk and no maintenance costs. At least for physical gold that you possess.
Buyers can expect their gold to immediately lose around 5 percent of its value, according to Tom Graff, chief investment officer at the wealth advising company Facet. One pays a premium to buy and pays fees to sell. “You need a holding period that’s long enough to overwhelm that cost,” said Graff
Buyers can expect their gold to immediately lose around 5 percent of its value, according to Tom Graff, chief investment officer at the wealth advising company Facet. One pays a premium to buy and pays fees to sell. “You need a holding period that’s long enough to overwhelm that cost,” said Graff
and this is the difference between flipping and stacking. Stack on.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
"The West not only froze dollar assets owned by the Russian central bank early 2022 at the start of the war, but Congress just approved a bill to confiscate such assets and give them to Ukraine. What could speed up “de-dollarization” by BRICS members and other countries faster than this? Tensions between East and West will not be resolved quickly, telling us the gold price will continue to march higher and gold’s share of global international reserves will rise to the detriment of the dollar."
Once again, dollar insurance.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Buyers can expect their gold to immediately lose around 5 percent of its value, according to Tom Graff, chief investment officer at the wealth advising company Facet. One pays a premium to buy and pays fees to sell. “You need a holding period that’s long enough to overwhelm that cost,” said Graff
The gold does not lose value just because the purchaser lacks a retail establishment to re-sell it. But of course the point is true as it is with any asset that there are transaction costs. Funny they don't mention costs and fees when buying stocks or mutual funds or other paper.
Buyers can expect their gold to immediately lose around 5 percent of its value, according to Tom Graff, chief investment officer at the wealth advising company Facet. One pays a premium to buy and pays fees to sell. “You need a holding period that’s long enough to overwhelm that cost,” said Graff
The gold does not lose value just because the purchaser lacks a retail establishment to re-sell it. But of course the point is true as it is with any asset that there are transaction costs. Funny they don't mention costs and fees when buying stocks or mutual funds or other paper.
5% immediate loss is a substantial haircut on any investment right off the bat. I suspect the gutter haircut is even much worse.
Stopped by a LCS this week just to see what they were paying these days. 1oz, 1/2, 1/4, 1/10 Gold Maples, Krugs, Phils etc. all -5% back of spot. Au bars, not buying at all, AGE/AGB including fractionals paying spot. ASE spot +1 (fresh no spots/toning). I don't suspect he has many customers coming through the door to sell. Only good thing about this guy is you could walk through the door with 200+ Oz of the Au and he will buy it all in one transaction. THKS!
Buyers can expect their gold to immediately lose around 5 percent of its value, according to Tom Graff, chief investment officer at the wealth advising company Facet. One pays a premium to buy and pays fees to sell. “You need a holding period that’s long enough to overwhelm that cost,” said Graff
The gold does not lose value just because the purchaser lacks a retail establishment to re-sell it. But of course the point is true as it is with any asset that there are transaction costs. Funny they don't mention costs and fees when buying stocks or mutual funds or other paper.
5% immediate loss is a substantial haircut on any investment right off the bat. I suspect the gutter haircut is even much worse.
Stopped by a LCS this week just to see what they were paying these days. 1oz, 1/2, 1/4, 1/10 Gold Maples, Krugs, Phils etc. all -5% back of spot. Au bars, not buying at all, AGE/AGB including fractionals paying spot. ASE spot +1 (fresh no spots/toning). I don't suspect he has many customers coming through the door to sell. Only good thing about this guy is you could walk through the door with 200+ Oz of the Au and he will buy it all in one transaction. THKS!
Maybe I should restate what I said. The "value" of gold is essentially the spot price. The "value of gold" does not depend on any one person's ability to buy or sell at that price.
Buyers can expect their gold to immediately lose around 5 percent of its value, according to Tom Graff, chief investment officer at the wealth advising company Facet. One pays a premium to buy and pays fees to sell. “You need a holding period that’s long enough to overwhelm that cost,” said Graff
The gold does not lose value just because the purchaser lacks a retail establishment to re-sell it. But of course the point is true as it is with any asset that there are transaction costs. Funny they don't mention costs and fees when buying stocks or mutual funds or other paper.
5% immediate loss is a substantial haircut on any investment right off the bat. I suspect the gutter haircut is even much worse.
Stopped by a LCS this week just to see what they were paying these days. 1oz, 1/2, 1/4, 1/10 Gold Maples, Krugs, Phils etc. all -5% back of spot. Au bars, not buying at all, AGE/AGB including fractionals paying spot. ASE spot +1 (fresh no spots/toning). I don't suspect he has many customers coming through the door to sell. Only good thing about this guy is you could walk through the door with 200+ Oz of the Au and he will buy it all in one transaction. THKS!
Maybe I should restate what I said. The "value" of gold is essentially the spot price. The "value of gold" does not depend on any one person's ability to buy or sell at that price.
Perhaps I should restate as well. The "value" of gold depends on what you buy, and how much effort are you willing to put into it when the time comes time to sell. RGDS!
Buyers can expect their gold to immediately lose around 5 percent of its value, according to Tom Graff, chief investment officer at the wealth advising company Facet. One pays a premium to buy and pays fees to sell. “You need a holding period that’s long enough to overwhelm that cost,” said Graff
The gold does not lose value just because the purchaser lacks a retail establishment to re-sell it. But of course the point is true as it is with any asset that there are transaction costs. Funny they don't mention costs and fees when buying stocks or mutual funds or other paper.
One forum member makes it a point to discuss transaction costs on paper silver.....which are actually MUCH LOWER...but he still doesn't get it.
Shoot...he rants about a 1% annual haircut while the "stacker" as derryb points out takes a 5% haircut immediately.
Buyers can expect their gold to immediately lose around 5 percent of its value, according to Tom Graff, chief investment officer at the wealth advising company Facet. One pays a premium to buy and pays fees to sell. “You need a holding period that’s long enough to overwhelm that cost,” said Graff
and this is the difference between flipping and stacking. Stack on.
Like those folk who stacked ASE last year at $45+???
Silver went up and they still lose $$$$.
Maybe they should bought something different and actually increased their wealth.
Buyers can expect their gold to immediately lose around 5 percent of its value, according to Tom Graff, chief investment officer at the wealth advising company Facet. One pays a premium to buy and pays fees to sell. “You need a holding period that’s long enough to overwhelm that cost,” said Graff
The gold does not lose value just because the purchaser lacks a retail establishment to re-sell it. But of course the point is true as it is with any asset that there are transaction costs. Funny they don't mention costs and fees when buying stocks or mutual funds or other paper.
One forum member makes it a point to discuss transaction costs on paper silver.....which are actually MUCH LOWER...but he still doesn't get it.
Shoot...he rants about a 1% annual haircut while the "stacker" as derryb points out takes a 5% haircut immediately.
Weird.
.
Not everyone has the same transaction costs. Just because some people pay a 5% transaction cost doesn't mean that everyone does. Yesterday at the Denver Coin Expo I bought two 10-troy-oz 999 silver bars at "spot" from a dealer. If I wanted to sell them at spot I could easily do so at any similar venue.
And if I wanted to hold onto the bars for the long term they would not evaporate at the rate of half a percent per year like SLV does.
Buyers can expect their gold to immediately lose around 5 percent of its value, according to Tom Graff, chief investment officer at the wealth advising company Facet. One pays a premium to buy and pays fees to sell. “You need a holding period that’s long enough to overwhelm that cost,” said Graff
and this is the difference between flipping and stacking. Stack on.
Like those folk who stacked ASE last year at $45+???
Silver went up and they still lose $$$$.
Maybe they should bought something different and actually increased their wealth.
.
I don't personally know anyone who has ever paid $45 for a generic Silver Eagle.
And, of course, you fail to consider that if the price of silver were to drop significantly from here, the premiums on preferred forms of physical silver would likely increase which would mitigate losses.
The market price of physical piece of silver, combined with the premium on it, is less volatile than any "paper" silver price.
Buyers can expect their gold to immediately lose around 5 percent of its value, according to Tom Graff, chief investment officer at the wealth advising company Facet. One pays a premium to buy and pays fees to sell. “You need a holding period that’s long enough to overwhelm that cost,” said Graff
and this is the difference between flipping and stacking. Stack on.
Like those folk who stacked ASE last year at $45+???
Silver went up and they still lose $$$$.
Maybe they should bought something different and actually increased their wealth.
.
I don't personally know anyone who has ever paid $45 for a generic Silver Eagle.
I don't personally know anyone who walked on the moon, so therefore it never happened?
Lots of comments earlier in this thread by your fellow comrades saying those high premiums were due to strong demand. Are you now disagreeing with them?
And, of course, you fail to consider that if the price of silver were to drop significantly from here, the premiums on preferred forms of physical silver would likely increase which would mitigate losses.
Was this the case last year?
The market price of physical piece of silver, combined with the premium on it, is less volatile than any "paper" silver price.
Comments
.
Remember when the oil contract was trading at NEGATIVE -$40 ?
That was not representative of what oil was actually worth at the time.
.
My old eyes read that as ninety-eight dollars and I was thinking... that's not that bad a price.
Yelling at clouds on pmbug.com
AEP talks gold and "interesting times":
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/04/16/gold-price-surge-china-warchest-geopolitical-dystopia/
Yelling at clouds on pmbug.com
I thought it deserved its own thread so I created one.
Lots to discuss in the column, typical AEP piece chock-full-of-ideas and tidbits.
Retail buying in China is through the roof and driving world prices up. This should lead to increased retail buying in most major economies.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Not sure as China may be a unique situation given the dislike by many for the CCP and the fear of monetary policies there. The bricks of the BRICs are not as solid as some would assume !!
I did mention retail Indian and Chinse buying here over a year ago.
What we are seeing is an increase in public demand. As uncertainty increases, gold's value increases. Appears the what I have been espousing for years ("gold's price is determined by faith in the currency") is playing out.
An increase in demand will reduce available supply, resulting in even higher prices. And to double down, rising prices make it harder to pull it from the hands of its owner.
I believe we are witnessing this process in it's early stages. If it continues to grow, prices could explode. If uncertainty wanes, prices will drop quickly. This uncertainty is in the hands of FED, elected leaders and the press that is the ultimate source of affecting our uncertainty level.
The question on the future price of gold should be this: "Will the uncertainty in the minds of current buyers and future buyers grow are will it fade away." Answer this and stand to profit on either side of the trade.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@derryb, do you think the public demand might be coming from Millennials? I was kind of surprised to read a couple articles recently suggesting that they are buying more gold than the two earlier gens... X and BB.
Requests I receive for gold information are about 40% under age 40 and 60% over age 40. I believe we have many buyers who might not know what they should about the products. Likely paying high premiums for non-premium products. But, if their fears materialize they will not be under water for long.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
do you think the public demand might be coming from Millennials? I was kind of surprised to read a couple articles recently suggesting that they are buying more gold than the two earlier gens... X and BB.
This is surprising, considering the trend away from the use of coins and cash, the trend toward cell phone payment apps, and increased credit card limits by the banks. Maybe the idea of sound money is making a comeback?
I knew it would happen.
I suspect that maybe some tik tok videos from young stackers gain traction from time to time...
there's also help from Silver raiders and many other X and Reddit silver bug groups.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Absolutely not.
Cant' believe I used to take this guy seriously before.
Shanghai Gold Exchange tightens gold margin requirements and daily price limits to dampen Asian gold demand.
Will cause a dip in prices, bottom unknown.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
There I fixed it.
thanks, as we know paper determines the base price of physical.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Chinese gold trading volatility has gone up 400% this year. The Chinese authorities are trying to tampen down speculation, not necessarily drop the price.
speculation and control of speculation affects the price.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
GREED & FEAR Report is out....can we post PDFs somehow here ?
elaborate. what is the greed and fear report?
You know. The one thing that makes the one thing go up and down of course. Or maybe sideways.
I think it's a successor report to the infamous DOOM, BOOM, AND GLOOM report of Marc Faber.
it's possible to attach files to a post, but many, including me, are apprehensive about opening attachments
Chinese gold trading volatility has gone up 400% this year. The Chinese authorities are trying to tampen down speculation, not necessarily drop the price.
China appears to have been in an accumulation phase for years, and it doesn't appear to be abating. The fact that both China and India - the two most populous countries - are accumulating both gold and silver aggressively - this should be a pretty good indication of where prices are headed for the precious metals, in addition to all other strategic and critical raw materials.
I knew it would happen.
Looks like the big boys didn't like gold so much at $2,400.
I still think gold is a good long term buy. Especially if this "correction" gets out of hand, it may become a great buy.
Is this the end of the story? So when does 2500 happen? Never or next month?
buy Mortimer, buy
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
but are you literally adding to the stack at say 1800?
me? I'm not stacking at all
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I wonder how much of China's production is from recovery.
Or Gold Plated Lead
When a ring marked 14k actually tests out 13/13.5 Would china's accountability for gold accumulation be in question?
Gold is down 4% from the ATH and BTC is down 15%.
Settle down, kiddies.
The TREND is more important.
All maxxed out or declining. Look at South Africa from 1970 (1,000 tons per year) to the current ~120 tons per year.
Interesting that Plat and Palladium are 1:1 right now, and silver having a (relatively) big day:
As the Dollar Falters, Gold Becomes Insurance, Not Speculation
Dollar insurance? What a novel idea.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
It would be better and more accurate to portray gold as a good way to reduce a long US dollar position into an asset with no counterparty risk and no maintenance costs. At least for physical gold that you possess.
From the article......
Buyers can expect their gold to immediately lose around 5 percent of its value, according to Tom Graff, chief investment officer at the wealth advising company Facet. One pays a premium to buy and pays fees to sell. “You need a holding period that’s long enough to overwhelm that cost,” said Graff
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
and this is the difference between flipping and stacking. Stack on.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
New Multi-Year Gold Bull Market Has Begun
"The West not only froze dollar assets owned by the Russian central bank early 2022 at the start of the war, but Congress just approved a bill to confiscate such assets and give them to Ukraine. What could speed up “de-dollarization” by BRICS members and other countries faster than this? Tensions between East and West will not be resolved quickly, telling us the gold price will continue to march higher and gold’s share of global international reserves will rise to the detriment of the dollar."
Once again, dollar insurance.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
The gold does not lose value just because the purchaser lacks a retail establishment to re-sell it. But of course the point is true as it is with any asset that there are transaction costs. Funny they don't mention costs and fees when buying stocks or mutual funds or other paper.
5% immediate loss is a substantial haircut on any investment right off the bat. I suspect the gutter haircut is even much worse.
Stopped by a LCS this week just to see what they were paying these days. 1oz, 1/2, 1/4, 1/10 Gold Maples, Krugs, Phils etc. all -5% back of spot. Au bars, not buying at all, AGE/AGB including fractionals paying spot. ASE spot +1 (fresh no spots/toning). I don't suspect he has many customers coming through the door to sell. Only good thing about this guy is you could walk through the door with 200+ Oz of the Au and he will buy it all in one transaction. THKS!
Maybe I should restate what I said. The "value" of gold is essentially the spot price. The "value of gold" does not depend on any one person's ability to buy or sell at that price.
Perhaps I should restate as well. The "value" of gold depends on what you buy, and how much effort are you willing to put into it when the time comes time to sell. RGDS!
One forum member makes it a point to discuss transaction costs on paper silver.....which are actually MUCH LOWER...but he still doesn't get it.
Shoot...he rants about a 1% annual haircut while the "stacker" as derryb points out takes a 5% haircut immediately.
Weird.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Like those folk who stacked ASE last year at $45+???
Silver went up and they still lose $$$$.
Maybe they should bought something different and actually increased their wealth.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
.
Not everyone has the same transaction costs. Just because some people pay a 5% transaction cost doesn't mean that everyone does. Yesterday at the Denver Coin Expo I bought two 10-troy-oz 999 silver bars at "spot" from a dealer. If I wanted to sell them at spot I could easily do so at any similar venue.
And if I wanted to hold onto the bars for the long term they would not evaporate at the rate of half a percent per year like SLV does.
.
.
I don't personally know anyone who has ever paid $45 for a generic Silver Eagle.
And, of course, you fail to consider that if the price of silver were to drop significantly from here, the premiums on preferred forms of physical silver would likely increase which would mitigate losses.
The market price of physical piece of silver, combined with the premium on it, is less volatile than any "paper" silver price.
.
I don't personally know anyone who walked on the moon, so therefore it never happened?
Lots of comments earlier in this thread by your fellow comrades saying those high premiums were due to strong demand. Are you now disagreeing with them?
Was this the case last year?
No it isnt.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear