Most of the largest buildings in most of the large cities have names of banks on them. Quite a few stadiums as well.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@dcarr said:
If major banks get no benefit from being members/owners of the Federal Reserve, why do they oppose nationalization of the FED ?
What does that mean, "nationalization" of the Fed ? You mean the Central Bank is under the control of nincompoops and political actors like the Chinese or Argentinian Central Banks ?
.
The Federal Reserve is run by a cartel for the benefit of the cartel first, and everyone else second. In that regard it is no better than, and is no more democratic than, China, Argentina, or any other bank.
@derryb said:
Most of the largest buildings in most of the large cities have names of banks on them. Quite a few stadiums as well.
All that means is they paid for a few floors and bought naming rights. In NYC, most buildings with a name on it have about 10% of the space for that firm. Some have none -- like the Chrysler Building or the Exxon Building.
Naming rights for sports stadiums is traditionally a Kiss Of Death for the sponsoring firm. Lots written about this.
The Federal Reserve is run by a cartel for the benefit of the cartel first, and everyone else second. In that regard it is no better than, and is no more democratic than, China, Argentina, or any other bank.
Then the cartel blows. The industry's profits lag every other major S&P 500 sector save materials.
@Clackamas1 said:
LOL, Let me guess you are not financially savvy. For the record I have a sizeable precious metal position as a fraction of my total investments. Your point is terrible and wrong. Go look at the stock chart it has been a stellar investment since the 1970's, it has nothing to do with Covid in the long term or short term. It yields 2.2% TODAY and the stock is up .5% today. Had you bought it last year your dividend yield on cost would be over 5%, sitting on an 80% return on the stock and that my friend is a FANTASTIC investment - It is a model investment for unrealized capital gains and yield on cost. Thank the lord you don't give investment advice professionally.
I do give investment advice professionally, and I do it quite well, thank you, for 35 years.
The data aren't comparable to the 1970's given the deals of the 1990's. But using rolling time periods, it lags the S&P 500 in most time periods since 2000.
Again....JPM is the gold-standard among banks....and it is MEDIOCRE compared to an index fund. Which means the AVERAGE bank is lousy.
You are incorrect according to the calculator. This is a drip calculated return after 35 years I would expect most people to be taking the dividend. Buffet
JPM has an annualized return as follows
10/24/2023 - 10/21/2024 - 62.48% 1 year
10/23/2020 - 10/21/2024 - 26.2% Pandemic to now
10/21/2019 - 10/21/2024 - 16.38% 5 year
10/21/2014 - 10/21/2024 - 18.14% 10 year
10/22/2009 - 10/21/2024 - 14.05% 15 year
10/22/2004 - 10/21/2024 - 12.32% 20 year
10/26/1999 - 10/21/2024 - 9.22% 25 year
10/26/1994 - 10/21/2024 - 13.7% 30 year
10/24/1989 - 10/21/2024 - 12.65% 35 year
The S&P average annual return is 10.4% basically it has beaten the market average in every period except 1 and then it was close and you call that mediocre. You say you give investment advice professionally and apparently your definition of "quite well" is different than mine, it probably means you do well and your clients do not. I bet you are still working, I don't (1968), maybe you should consider another line of work, Buffet has 21% of his portfolio in bank stocks but I guess you think you are better than him.
Back to the price of gold. I see inflation as cooling when Trump gets in office. He is going to get oil down below $50 which will have a ripple effect across the board on the cost of production. I see gold stagnating over the next few years but since the inflation we had is real and permanent I don't think we will see any big retreat back to $2000. I am not a buyer at this level and in fact I am going to unload a couple hundred ounces and buy JPM stock .
The data aren't comparable to the 1970's given the deals of the 1990's. But using rolling time periods, it lags the S&P 500 in most time periods since 2000.
Again....JPM is the gold-standard among banks....and it is MEDIOCRE compared to an index fund. Which means the AVERAGE bank is lousy.
Total return of JPM is the same as SPY since the late 90s.
@Clackamas1 said:
The S&P average annual return is 10.4% basically it has beaten the market average in every period except 1 and then it was close and you call that mediocre. You say you give investment advice professionally and apparently your definition of "quite well" is different than mine, it probably means you do well and your clients do not. I bet you are still working, I don't (1968), maybe you should consider another line of work, Buffet has 21% of his portfolio in bank stocks but I guess you think you are better than him.
You keep focusing on JPM, and that's the best-performer in the lot. So no, you clearly can't show evidence that banks generate great returns historically the last few decades. You also use an incorrect method of showing returns by cherry-picking the time period for your calculation instead of using rolling time periods to eliminate timing bias.
The KRE S&P Regional Bank Index is up about 20% in TOTAL the last 18 years (~3% a year including dividends)...the large-cap NASDAQ Bank Index (JPM is the largest component) has returned about 7% a year the last 30 years, and that includes the glorious 1990's. The S&P 500 has returned about 10.5% over the same time frame.
Buffet has been selling his bank stocks in recent months. Historically, he plays the preferreds over the common which shows he knows that their returns have stunk going back to his Salomon Brothers investment.
@cohodk said:
Total return of JPM is the same as SPY since the late 90s.
It's in the ballpark, yes. But that proves my point. JPM has been the DEFAULT bank stock in lieu of buying bank stocks or a bank index. As a result, it sells at a richer premium and has benefited from P/E multiple expansion. Jamie Dimon is probably worth it, I agree.
That said, when dozens of other large-cap bank stocks and thousands of smaller banks generate LSD returns and lag the S&P 500 by 700-1,000 bp. annually, that shows something is wrong.
Which was my original point going back a few posts, contrary to those who think that being a bank is a license to steal via the Fed.
@Clackamas1 said:
Back to the price of gold. I see inflation as cooling when Trump gets in office. He is going to get oil down below $50 which will have a ripple effect across the board on the cost of production. I see gold stagnating over the next few years but since the inflation we had is real and permanent I don't think we will see any big retreat back to $2000. I am not a buyer at this level and in fact I am going to unload a couple hundred ounces and buy JPM stock .
Oil will be going down since 2025 is shaping up as a glut year. I agree $50 might be seen. Key is if Iran ever dumps The Crazies, you'll have a few million barrels hitting the market and that could depress prices for years.
Inflation is a bit higher and structurally might edge higher (i.e., onshoring) but nothing dramatic. Gold will move up on its own fundamentals. I am sticking with my $3,000 by 2030 and $5,000 by 2035 predictions. If anything, those time frames could advance, esp. the former.
@GoldFinger1969 said:
Back to gold....does anybody here think gold is PEAKING and will NOT approach/exceed $3,000 in 2025 ?
there are too many variables that can easily push it over $3K:
election results
election transition
the middle east crisis
a Korean war
the Russian war
a China conflict
inflation
BRICS
central bank buying
These are the known swans. We don't know the names of the black swans until they surface.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@GoldFinger1969 said:
Which was my original point going back a few posts, contrary to those who think that being a bank is a license to steal via the Fed.
While that is true, you will NEVER convince them of that.
@GoldFinger1969 said:
Back to gold....does anybody here think gold is PEAKING and will NOT approach/exceed $3,000 in 2025 ?
there are too many variables that can easily push it over $3K:
election results
election transition
the middle east crisis
a Korean war
the Russian war
a China conflict
inflation
BRICS
central bank buying
These are the known swans. We don't know the names of the black swans until they surface.
There is always something to worry about, but when there isn't, then it's time to worry.
@GoldFinger1969 said:
Back to gold....does anybody here think gold is PEAKING and will NOT approach/exceed $3,000 in 2025 ?
there are too many variables that can easily push it over $3K:
election results
election transition
the middle east crisis
a Korean war
the Russian war
a China conflict
inflation
BRICS
central bank buying
These are the known swans. We don't know the names of the black swans until they surface.
There is always something to worry about
Yea, but there is a wall of it now. So many fuses, so many matches.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@Clackamas1 said:
Back to the price of gold. I see inflation as cooling when Trump gets in office. He is going to get oil down below $50 which will have a ripple effect across the board on the cost of production. I see gold stagnating over the next few years but since the inflation we had is real and permanent I don't think we will see any big retreat back to $2000. I am not a buyer at this level and in fact I am going to unload a couple hundred ounces and buy JPM stock .
Oil will be going down since 2025 is shaping up as a glut year. I agree $50 might be seen. Key is if Iran ever dumps The Crazies, you'll have a few million barrels hitting the market and that could depress prices for years.
Inflation is a bit higher and structurally might edge higher (i.e., onshoring) but nothing dramatic. Gold will move up on its own fundamentals. I am sticking with my $3,000 by 2030 and $5,000 by 2035 predictions. If anything, those time frames could advance, esp. the former.
Your predictions impress no one. A 10% rise over 5 years would hardly be special or noteworthy or be seen as prescient when sitting at $2736 this weekend. Assuming gold holds current levels, a 10% swing would be within the normal price variance.
@Clackamas1 said:
Back to the price of gold. I see inflation as cooling when Trump gets in office. He is going to get oil down below $50 which will have a ripple effect across the board on the cost of production. I see gold stagnating over the next few years but since the inflation we had is real and permanent I don't think we will see any big retreat back to $2000. I am not a buyer at this level and in fact I am going to unload a couple hundred ounces and buy JPM stock .
Maybe. Gluts of money and metal supply take time to work in and out of the system and don't turn or stop on a dime. Globally, central banks are buying gold at a good rate and I think a lot of slack is being taken out of the gold supply chain. Dropping energy prices will help tame inflation but the money printing is not ending. While T is interested in Elon's DOGE (Dept of Govt Efficiency) initiative, he was not particularly conservative with spending in his last term and a lot will be depending on if the same party controls house and senate (and even then the RINOs are another factor). Lots to consider, lots of variables.
@GoldFinger1969 said:
Back to gold....does anybody here think gold is PEAKING and will NOT approach/exceed $3,000 in 2025 ?
there are too many variables that can easily push it over $3K:
election results
election transition
the middle east crisis
a Korean war
the Russian war
a China conflict
inflation
BRICS
central bank buying
These are the known swans. We don't know the names of the black swans until they surface.
There is always something to worry about
Yea, but there is a wall of it now. So many fuses, so many matches.
Perhaps only in your delusional world. You have spent so much time on those doomsday cult sites that I believe you are having trouble distinguishing fantasy from reality. Sunshine brother, please I am begging you. RGDS!
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@ProofCollection said:
Your predictions impress no one. A 10% rise over 5 years would hardly be special or noteworthy or be seen as prescient when sitting at $2736 this weekend. Assuming gold holds current levels, a 10% swing would be within the normal price variance.
You are a bit late to the party. I have been saying those numbers since gold was $1,600 pre-Covid.
@ProofCollection said:
Your predictions impress no one. A 10% rise over 5 years would hardly be special or noteworthy or be seen as prescient when sitting at $2736 this weekend. Assuming gold holds current levels, a 10% swing would be within the normal price variance.
You are a bit late to the party. I have been saying those numbers since gold was $1,600 pre-Covid.
@cohodk said:
While that is true, you will NEVER convince them of that.
I suspect that the regulators will be allowing tons of mergers. Something has to give. You can't have all these banks.
Why not? As I understand the number of banks has been steadily declining for decades. The problem is nowadays that bank mergers are almost necessary as the regulatory burden has grown to the extent that you have to be a big bank to be able to afford your compliance overhead.
Banking as we know it is about to change when we finally transition to a digital dollar and tokenized assets when there will no longer be a need for a middle man.
Fair point....but let's hit the target(s) first, IMO. If anything, I would advance the $5,000 target by 2035 though I think by 2030 could be aggressive.
But...you never know. If politicians or central bankers (and some are political appointees with no independence) do something stupid, gold could move a ton. BitCoin is the wildcard that might draw $$$.
@ProofCollection said:
I suspect that the regulators will be allowing tons of mergers. Something has to give. You can't have all these banks.
Why not? As I understand the number of banks has been steadily declining for decades. The problem is nowadays that bank mergers are almost necessary as the regulatory burden has grown to the extent that you have to be a big bank to be able to afford your compliance overhead.
Yup, that's it. Plus, there aren't enough regulators. It's alot easier for regulators to keep tabs on 1 big bank with $500 BB in assets than 5 banks with $100 BB in assets. Or.....3 big regionals or locals with $100 BB in assets instead of 150 banks averaging $2 BB in assets.
We have about 4,500 banks (excluding credit unions). Canada I think has 10 or 12 (with 1/12th the population). Do we really need that many with PayPal, Venmo, and other payment Apps ?
Banking as we know it is about to change when we finally transition to a digital dollar and tokenized assets when there will no longer be a need for a middle man.
Probably, but not my area of expertise. I needed my niece to help me when I wanted to use Venmo. I remember when PayPal was the cool payment system !
I suspect that the regulators will be allowing tons of mergers. Something has to give. You can't have all these banks.
You do sound like a big fan of central planning. I don't own any crypto (yet), but I do think that distributed ledger tech is a better idea than a central banking system. All of the large organizations are failing us.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@jmski52 said:
You do sound like a big fan of central planning. I don't own any crypto (yet), but I do think that distributed ledger >tech is a better idea than a central banking system. All of the large organizations are failing us.
What central planning ? We have too many banks. You think we'd have as good a tech sector if we had dozens of operating systems instead of just 1 or 2 of them ?
We don't need 4,500 banks today just like we didn't need 12,000 of them in 1980. It's not the 1950's where you can only bank at a place up the road and everybody needs a bank branch within 3 blocks of where they live.
Credit unions are starting to rule the retail sector on the West Coast. I have not used a bank for personal finance since I was in College and they will get creative with you on loans, like raw land. For business I use a local business bank where I know the owners, just like the old days.
@jmski52 said:
You do sound like a big fan of central planning. I don't own any crypto (yet), but I do think that distributed ledger >tech is a better idea than a central banking system. All of the large organizations are failing us.
What central planning ? We have too many banks. You think we'd have as good a tech sector if we had dozens of operating systems instead of just 1 or 2 of them ?
We don't need 4,500 banks today just like we didn't need 12,000 of them in 1980. It's not the 1950's where you can only bank at a place up the road and everybody needs a bank branch within 3 blocks of where they live.
When I'm shopping for loans or have special needs I'm happy to have lots of banks to choose from. Some offer free services (like checking) to get my business. I like that they have to compete. Ever try to get a loan on a vacant lot? Not all banks like to do those. What about construction loans or specialized business loans or services? It's getting better, but not many banks are crypto-friendly. I wish I could find a bank that would let me borrow against my bullion and coin collection. We need more competition, not less.
I wish I could find a bank that would let me borrow against my bullion and coin collection. We need more competition, not less.
Greg Hunter on USAWatchdog.com interviewed Katherine Austin Fitts today and she is involved in several state initiatives that are geared towards silver and gold as legal tender. You might want to check it out and support these efforts with some of the materials that she is supplying to various state legislators.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@jmski52 said: I wish I could find a bank that would let me borrow against my bullion and coin collection. We need more competition, not less.
Greg Hunter on USAWatchdog.com interviewed Katherine Austin Fitts today and she is involved in several state initiatives that are geared towards silver and gold as legal tender. You might want to check it out and support these efforts with some of the materials that she is supplying to various state legislators.
My state (Arizona) already allows use of gold and silver as legal tender. But I'm not sure anyone wants to use a $20 gold eagle to pay for lunch.
@jmski52 said:
You do sound like a big fan of central planning. I don't own any crypto (yet), but I do think that distributed ledger >tech is a better idea than a central banking system. All of the large organizations are failing us.
What central planning ? We have too many banks. You think we'd have as good a tech sector if we had dozens of operating systems instead of just 1 or 2 of them ?
We don't need 4,500 banks today just like we didn't need 12,000 of them in 1980. It's not the 1950's where you can only bank at a place up the road and everybody needs a bank branch within 3 blocks of where they live.
.
Are you saying that the Federal Reserve does not engage in "central planning" of the economy ?
ProofCollection said:
We don't need 4,500 banks today just like we didn't need 12,000 of them in 1980. It's not the 1950's where you can >only bank at a place up the road and everybody needs a bank branch within 3 blocks of where they live.
When I'm shopping for loans or have special needs I'm happy to have lots of banks to choose from. Some offer free >services (like checking) to get my business. I like that they have to compete. Ever try to get a loan on a vacant lot? >Not all banks like to do those. What about construction loans or specialized business loans or services? It's getting >better, but not many banks are crypto-friendly. I wish I could find a bank that would let me borrow against my >bullion and coin collection. We need more competition, not less.
No, the sector isn't making a return on cost of capital. That means that banks will go out of business or merge. It's Economics 101.
You guys who want "competition".....you have plenty of competition. You don't need 4,500 different options. You don't have that for any other product or service you buy.
You'll be fine with 2 or 3 local options....3 or 4 more regional ones....and 5 or 6 national ones.
Nobody complained that The Big 3 (GM, Chrysler, Ford) weren't The Big 3,000 !!!
@dcarr said:
Are you saying that the Federal Reserve does not engage in "central planning" of the economy ?
Yeah, because it's true. Central Planning means directing the means of production.
The Fed is simply maintaining credit and monetary conditions to generate growth with stable and low inflation. Anybody who thinks that The Fed is engaged in "central planning" doesn't understand what a central bank does and how it works and how Open Market Operations work.
@ProofCollection said:
We don't need 4,500 banks today just like we didn't need 12,000 of them in 1980. It's not the 1950's where you can >only bank at a place up the road and everybody needs a bank branch within 3 blocks of where they live.
When I'm shopping for loans or have special needs I'm happy to have lots of banks to choose from. Some offer free >services (like checking) to get my business. I like that they have to compete. Ever try to get a loan on a vacant lot? >Not all banks like to do those. What about construction loans or specialized business loans or services? It's getting >better, but not many banks are crypto-friendly. I wish I could find a bank that would let me borrow against my >bullion and coin collection. We need more competition, not less.
There already exists competition for what you want. You may not like the price, but you're asking for a loan backed by risky collateral. And you wonder why banks get in trouble ??
@ProofCollection said:
We don't need 4,500 banks today just like we didn't need 12,000 of them in 1980. It's not the 1950's where you can >only bank at a place up the road and everybody needs a bank branch within 3 blocks of where they live.
When I'm shopping for loans or have special needs I'm happy to have lots of banks to choose from. Some offer free >services (like checking) to get my business. I like that they have to compete. Ever try to get a loan on a vacant lot? >Not all banks like to do those. What about construction loans or specialized business loans or services? It's getting >better, but not many banks are crypto-friendly. I wish I could find a bank that would let me borrow against my >bullion and coin collection. We need more competition, not less.
There already exists competition for what you want. You may not like the price, but you're asking for a loan backed by risky collateral. And you wonder why banks get in trouble ??
Exactly. And you want less competition?
I wouldn't consider gold and silver bullion to be risky collateral. I would lend against gold and silver all day long at 40-50% LTV if I was a bank with a clause to payoff the loan/adjust the collateral if the ratio ever got to 80%. That's about as risk free as you can get.
@jmski52 said: I wish I could find a bank that would let me borrow against my bullion and coin collection. We need more competition, not less.
Greg Hunter on USAWatchdog.com interviewed Katherine Austin Fitts today and she is involved in several state initiatives that are geared towards silver and gold as legal tender. You might want to check it out and support these efforts with some of the materials that she is supplying to various state legislators.
My state (Arizona) already allows use of gold and silver as legal tender. But I'm not sure anyone wants to use a $20 gold eagle to pay for lunch.
Just another reason I'm excited to move to Arizona. Can't wait to drive down my dirt road and up to the little breakfast spot and drop a gram of gold for some biscuits and gravy!
Yeah, because it's true. Central Planning means directing the means of production.
The Fed is simply maintaining credit and monetary conditions to generate growth with stable and low inflation. Anybody who thinks that The Fed is engaged in "central planning" doesn't understand what a central bank does and how it works and how Open Market Operations work.
Is not the "means of production" dependent on the policy that determines money supply and inflation rate? And if the FED is directing that policy is it not indirectly engaged in central planning? Has not its action (lower rates, record equity prices) in an election year proven it is also under the influence of politicians?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@jmski52 said: I wish I could find a bank that would let me borrow against my bullion and coin collection. We need more competition, not less.
Greg Hunter on USAWatchdog.com interviewed Katherine Austin Fitts today and she is involved in several state initiatives that are geared towards silver and gold as legal tender. You might want to check it out and support these efforts with some of the materials that she is supplying to various state legislators.
My state (Arizona) already allows use of gold and silver as legal tender. But I'm not sure anyone wants to use a $20 gold eagle to pay for lunch.
Just another reason I'm excited to move to Arizona. Can't wait to drive down my dirt road and up to the little breakfast spot and drop a gram of gold for some biscuits and gravy!
Honestly, I'm not sure what the purpose of the law is. Like I said, no one is going to use a $20 Gold Eagle for $20 paper USD worth of goods. The only thing I'm thinking it might apply for is if you wanted to buy a house or something with 200 gold eagles and you can legally record that you bought the house for $500. I'm not sure what benefit that is other than it gives a title company legal means to complete the transaction where as otherwise they might object.
BTW if you need a REALTOR when the time comes, message me!
@jmski52 said: I wish I could find a bank that would let me borrow against my bullion and coin collection. We need more competition, not less.
Greg Hunter on USAWatchdog.com interviewed Katherine Austin Fitts today and she is involved in several state initiatives that are geared towards silver and gold as legal tender. You might want to check it out and support these efforts with some of the materials that she is supplying to various state legislators.
My state (Arizona) already allows use of gold and silver as legal tender. But I'm not sure anyone wants to use a $20 gold eagle to pay for lunch.
Just another reason I'm excited to move to Arizona. Can't wait to drive down my dirt road and up to the little breakfast spot and drop a gram of gold for some biscuits and gravy!
That'd be some expensive biscuits and gravy. RGDS!
@ProofCollection said:
I wouldn't consider gold and silver bullion to be risky collateral. I would lend against gold and silver all day long at >40-50% LTV if I was a bank with a clause to payoff the loan/adjust the collateral if the ratio ever got to 80%. That's >about as risk free as you can get.
It's still risky. Does the bank know with 100% certitude that you or the person has what they say they do ? I guess if the bank is custodian for the assets, it's possible.
Also, numismatic coins can go down alot more than bullion (i.e., Bruce McNall). But even PM's can go down 70% in short notice.
Any Private Bank will lend on one's assets....including coin and art collections....but it's going to be done conservatively.
If this is something you want to seriously pursue, you want to deal with a bank that has a Private Bank for HNW or UHNW clients.
@ProofCollection said:
I wouldn't consider gold and silver bullion to be risky collateral. I would lend against gold and silver all day long at >40-50% LTV if I was a bank with a clause to payoff the loan/adjust the collateral if the ratio ever got to 80%. That's >about as risk free as you can get.
It's still risky. Does the bank know with 100% certitude that you or the person has what they say they do ? I guess if the bank is custodian for the assets, it's possible.
Also, numismatic coins can go down alot more than bullion (i.e., Bruce McNall). But even PM's can go down 70% in short notice.
Any Private Bank will lend on one's assets....including coin and art collections....but it's going to be done conservatively.
That's not true. Most are not setup for custodian of these types of assets and won't touch them and they don't have staff or training on how to handle and value these assets. They know securities, cars, and standard real estate, and that's about it.
If this is something you want to seriously pursue, you want to deal with a bank that has a Private Bank for HNW or UHNW clients.
Even then it can be challenging. I had rich friend who who needed a short term loan of a few million to fund an auto auction purchase. He was more than good for it, but he really struggled to get it done and at one point was sure it was going to fall through. Thousands of banks sounds like a lot but most of them are all the same. Anyone will give you a credit card, car loan, or 80% HELOC or a conventional mortgage. But when you get into niches and business, construction, and agricultural lending the options are very limited. Sure there's always a loan shark or pawn shop or someone who will charge you 20% interest, I'm talking about reasonable loan programs with rates under 10%.
@jmski52 said: I wish I could find a bank that would let me borrow against my bullion and coin collection. We need more competition, not less.
Greg Hunter on USAWatchdog.com interviewed Katherine Austin Fitts today and she is involved in several state initiatives that are geared towards silver and gold as legal tender. You might want to check it out and support these efforts with some of the materials that she is supplying to various state legislators.
My state (Arizona) already allows use of gold and silver as legal tender. But I'm not sure anyone wants to use a $20 gold eagle to pay for lunch.
Just another reason I'm excited to move to Arizona. Can't wait to drive down my dirt road and up to the little breakfast spot and drop a gram of gold for some biscuits and gravy!
Honestly, I'm not sure what the purpose of the law is. Like I said, no one is going to use a $20 Gold Eagle for $20 paper USD worth of goods. The only thing I'm thinking it might apply for is if you wanted to buy a house or something with 200 gold eagles and you can legally record that you bought the house for $500. I'm not sure what benefit that is other than it gives a title company legal means to complete the transaction where as otherwise they might object.
BTW if you need a REALTOR when the time comes, message me!
We actually flew down in late July/early August and picked out some land down near Sierra Vista. Closed on the deal a few weeks back. Will still be a couple years before we are ready to start building but at least we have started the process.
@jmski52 said: I wish I could find a bank that would let me borrow against my bullion and coin collection. We need more competition, not less.
Greg Hunter on USAWatchdog.com interviewed Katherine Austin Fitts today and she is involved in several state initiatives that are geared towards silver and gold as legal tender. You might want to check it out and support these efforts with some of the materials that she is supplying to various state legislators.
My state (Arizona) already allows use of gold and silver as legal tender. But I'm not sure anyone wants to use a $20 gold eagle to pay for lunch.
Just another reason I'm excited to move to Arizona. Can't wait to drive down my dirt road and up to the little breakfast spot and drop a gram of gold for some biscuits and gravy!
Honestly, I'm not sure what the purpose of the law is. Like I said, no one is going to use a $20 Gold Eagle for $20 paper USD worth of goods. The only thing I'm thinking it might apply for is if you wanted to buy a house or something with 200 gold eagles and you can legally record that you bought the house for $500. I'm not sure what benefit that is other than it gives a title company legal means to complete the transaction where as otherwise they might object.
BTW if you need a REALTOR when the time comes, message me!
Could a State constitutionally set up a gold exchange of some sort? Where they issue 'gold script' or something in exchange of for gold deposited? (and also give back the gold when script is redeemed... or if desired fed reserve notes based on the gold value?)
Just a wild question I guess, and not sure if would be workable or how it would even be set up. I also have wondered why states passing laws making gold and silver legal tender of sorts. Unless they are keeping such options open as per my question, in case case the Fed system started imploding? (not saying it is.... but who knows?)
@ProofCollection said:
That's not true. Most are not setup for custodian of these types of assets and won't touch them and they don't have staff or training on how to handle and value these assets. They know securities, cars, and standard real estate, and that's about it.
If you have a gold ETF, that's custodiable. Also, some PB's will take control of your gold or other tangible assets and store them. Art not so likely, but we used to do it at DB for gold assets. I believe it was only done for clients with over $100 MM in assets.
Even then it can be challenging. I had rich friend who who needed a short term loan of a few million to fund an auto auction purchase. He was more than good for it, but he really struggled to get it done and at one point was sure it was going to fall through. Thousands of banks sounds like a lot but most of them are all the same. Anyone will give you a credit card, car loan, or 80% HELOC or a conventional mortgage. But when you get into niches and business, construction, and agricultural lending the options are very limited. Sure there's always a loan shark or pawn shop or someone who will charge you 20% interest, I'm talking about reasonable loan programs with rates under 10%.
When was that ? Lending got super-tight after the 2008-09 GFC. My father used to have a HELOC with $300,000 against his totally mortgage-free home. Afterwards, the most they would give him was MAYBE $50K !!
If Warren Buffet applied for a loan, with his $100,000 annual salary or whatever, they'd probably turn him down too !
They tend to ignore assets UNLESS it's verified with the PB.
You or your friend would be perfect for a PB. They specialize in the niches. Goto a PB...talk to a Private Banker....tell him the specifics of what you or your friend what. They'll tell you if it is doable.
I used to manage $$$ for 1 or 2 families/individuals that were Top 10 on the Forbes 400 in wealth (then and now). Whatever they wanted, they got. Would we do the same thing with someone with $25 MM ?
@tincup said:
Could a State constitutionally set up a gold exchange of some sort? Where they issue 'gold script' or something in exchange of for gold deposited? (and also give back the gold when script is redeemed... or if desired fed reserve notes based on the gold value?) Just a wild question I guess, and not sure if would be workable or how it would even be set up. I also have wondered why states passing laws making gold and silver legal tender of sorts. Unless they are keeping such options open as per my question, in case case the Fed system started imploding? (not saying it is.... but who knows?)
Even if they COULD....who would want to deal with them ? The states have enough trouble balancing their budget and fully-funding pension and OPEBs.....many have lousy credits for tax-exempt muni offerings.
Now they're gonna get into gold ? I think most people would rather deal with the NYSE, COMEX, CME, and CBOE.
@ProofCollection said:
That's not true. Most are not setup for custodian of these types of assets and won't touch them and they don't have staff or training on how to handle and value these assets. They know securities, cars, and standard real estate, and that's about it.
If you have a gold ETF, that's custodiable. Also, some PB's will take control of your gold or other tangible assets and store them. Art not so likely, but we used to do it at DB for gold assets. I believe it was only done for clients with over $100 MM in assets.
You're not even reading what I write. shared of ETFs are securities.
Even then it can be challenging. I had rich friend who who needed a short term loan of a few million to fund an auto auction purchase. He was more than good for it, but he really struggled to get it done and at one point was sure it was going to fall through. Thousands of banks sounds like a lot but most of them are all the same. Anyone will give you a credit card, car loan, or 80% HELOC or a conventional mortgage. But when you get into niches and business, construction, and agricultural lending the options are very limited. Sure there's always a loan shark or pawn shop or someone who will charge you 20% interest, I'm talking about reasonable loan programs with rates under 10%.
When was that ? Lending got super-tight after the 2008-09 GFC. My father used to have a HELOC with $300,000 against his totally mortgage-free home. Afterwards, the most they would give him was MAYBE $50K !!
A few years ago. Clearly that was a different time and unique situation. I was never referring to those kinds of times.
If Warren Buffet applied for a loan, with his $100,000 annual salary or whatever, they'd probably turn him down too !
They tend to ignore assets UNLESS it's verified with the PB.
You or your friend would be perfect for a PB. They specialize in the niches. Goto a PB...talk to a Private Banker....tell him the specifics of what you or your friend what. They'll tell you if it is doable.
Trust me, he has private bankers, money managers, etc.
I used to manage $$$ for 1 or 2 families/individuals that were Top 10 on the Forbes 400 in wealth (then and now). Whatever they wanted, they got. Would we do the same thing with someone with $25 MM ?
Probably not...
People in the net worth area well over $100M are in a class of their own. It definitely a different story for those in the "meager" $10M-20Mish realm.
@ProofCollection said:
You're not even reading what I write. shared of ETFs are securities.
I'm not sure what you meant to type...my point is the PB will want either physical custody of the assets (with a gold ETF, it's already there) or verifiable proof. People remember "Crazy Eddie" and his inventory scam, especially here in NY.
@ProofCollection said:
You're not even reading what I write. shared of ETFs are securities.
I'm not sure what you meant to type...my point is the PB will want either physical custody of the assets (with a gold ETF, it's already there) or verifiable proof. People remember "Crazy Eddie" and his inventory scam, especially here in NY.
I'm not sure what your argument here is. My point is that very few banks if any are setup to take possession of assets to hold them for collateral. And as you say and I agree, a bank would require possession of the asset(s). That's why we need more banks, not less as there may be a handful out there that are willing to do this but not many. If you know of some, please post some names.
@ProofCollection said:
I'm not sure what your argument here is. My point is that very few banks if any are setup to take possession of assets to hold them for collateral. And as you say and I agree, a bank would require possession of the asset(s). That's why we need more banks, not less as there may be a handful out there that are willing to do this but not many. If you know of some, please post some names.
What I was saying was that if an investor wanted to borrow against gold...if they hold XAU or another gold ETF....with the bank....that's easy to check. And some banks WILL store gold coins/bars for clients or do an inventory check or work with some outside custodians who they feel comfortable verifying the assets.
I haven't worked for a PB in years but both European banks I worked for from 1998-2010 offered these services. Of course, European banks tend to be more pro-gold in asset allocations.
Comments
Most of the largest buildings in most of the large cities have names of banks on them. Quite a few stadiums as well.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
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Banks have the nicest buildings, but not the only nice buildings.
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The Federal Reserve is run by a cartel for the benefit of the cartel first, and everyone else second. In that regard it is no better than, and is no more democratic than, China, Argentina, or any other bank.
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All that means is they paid for a few floors and bought naming rights. In NYC, most buildings with a name on it have about 10% of the space for that firm. Some have none -- like the Chrysler Building or the Exxon Building.
Naming rights for sports stadiums is traditionally a Kiss Of Death for the sponsoring firm. Lots written about this.
Then the cartel blows.
The industry's profits lag every other major S&P 500 sector save materials.
You are incorrect according to the calculator. This is a drip calculated return after 35 years I would expect most people to be taking the dividend. Buffet
JPM has an annualized return as follows
10/24/2023 - 10/21/2024 - 62.48% 1 year
10/23/2020 - 10/21/2024 - 26.2% Pandemic to now
10/21/2019 - 10/21/2024 - 16.38% 5 year
10/21/2014 - 10/21/2024 - 18.14% 10 year
10/22/2009 - 10/21/2024 - 14.05% 15 year
10/22/2004 - 10/21/2024 - 12.32% 20 year
10/26/1999 - 10/21/2024 - 9.22% 25 year
10/26/1994 - 10/21/2024 - 13.7% 30 year
10/24/1989 - 10/21/2024 - 12.65% 35 year
The S&P average annual return is 10.4% basically it has beaten the market average in every period except 1 and then it was close and you call that mediocre. You say you give investment advice professionally and apparently your definition of "quite well" is different than mine, it probably means you do well and your clients do not. I bet you are still working, I don't (1968), maybe you should consider another line of work, Buffet has 21% of his portfolio in bank stocks but I guess you think you are better than him.
Back to the price of gold. I see inflation as cooling when Trump gets in office. He is going to get oil down below $50 which will have a ripple effect across the board on the cost of production. I see gold stagnating over the next few years but since the inflation we had is real and permanent I don't think we will see any big retreat back to $2000. I am not a buyer at this level and in fact I am going to unload a couple hundred ounces and buy JPM stock
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Total return of JPM is the same as SPY since the late 90s.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
You keep focusing on JPM, and that's the best-performer in the lot. So no, you clearly can't show evidence that banks generate great returns historically the last few decades. You also use an incorrect method of showing returns by cherry-picking the time period for your calculation instead of using rolling time periods to eliminate timing bias.
The KRE S&P Regional Bank Index is up about 20% in TOTAL the last 18 years (~3% a year including dividends)...the large-cap NASDAQ Bank Index (JPM is the largest component) has returned about 7% a year the last 30 years, and that includes the glorious 1990's. The S&P 500 has returned about 10.5% over the same time frame.
Buffet has been selling his bank stocks in recent months. Historically, he plays the preferreds over the common which shows he knows that their returns have stunk going back to his Salomon Brothers investment.
It's in the ballpark, yes. But that proves my point. JPM has been the DEFAULT bank stock in lieu of buying bank stocks or a bank index. As a result, it sells at a richer premium and has benefited from P/E multiple expansion. Jamie Dimon is probably worth it, I agree.
That said, when dozens of other large-cap bank stocks and thousands of smaller banks generate LSD returns and lag the S&P 500 by 700-1,000 bp. annually, that shows something is wrong.
Which was my original point going back a few posts, contrary to those who think that being a bank is a license to steal via the Fed.
Oil will be going down since 2025 is shaping up as a glut year. I agree $50 might be seen. Key is if Iran ever dumps The Crazies, you'll have a few million barrels hitting the market and that could depress prices for years.
Inflation is a bit higher and structurally might edge higher (i.e., onshoring) but nothing dramatic. Gold will move up on its own fundamentals. I am sticking with my $3,000 by 2030 and $5,000 by 2035 predictions. If anything, those time frames could advance, esp. the former.
Back to gold....does anybody here think gold is PEAKING and will NOT approach/exceed $3,000 in 2025 ?
there are too many variables that can easily push it over $3K:
election results
election transition
the middle east crisis
a Korean war
the Russian war
a China conflict
inflation
BRICS
central bank buying
These are the known swans. We don't know the names of the black swans until they surface.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
While that is true, you will NEVER convince them of that.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
There is always something to worry about, but when there isn't, then it's time to worry.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Yea, but there is a wall of it now. So many fuses, so many matches.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Your predictions impress no one. A 10% rise over 5 years would hardly be special or noteworthy or be seen as prescient when sitting at $2736 this weekend. Assuming gold holds current levels, a 10% swing would be within the normal price variance.
Maybe. Gluts of money and metal supply take time to work in and out of the system and don't turn or stop on a dime. Globally, central banks are buying gold at a good rate and I think a lot of slack is being taken out of the gold supply chain. Dropping energy prices will help tame inflation but the money printing is not ending. While T is interested in Elon's DOGE (Dept of Govt Efficiency) initiative, he was not particularly conservative with spending in his last term and a lot will be depending on if the same party controls house and senate (and even then the RINOs are another factor). Lots to consider, lots of variables.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I suspect that the regulators will be allowing tons of mergers. Something has to give. You can't have all these banks.
You are a bit late to the party. I have been saying those numbers since gold was $1,600 pre-Covid.
Maybe you need to update them then?
Why not? As I understand the number of banks has been steadily declining for decades. The problem is nowadays that bank mergers are almost necessary as the regulatory burden has grown to the extent that you have to be a big bank to be able to afford your compliance overhead.
Banking as we know it is about to change when we finally transition to a digital dollar and tokenized assets when there will no longer be a need for a middle man.
Fair point....but let's hit the target(s) first, IMO.
If anything, I would advance the $5,000 target by 2035 though I think by 2030 could be aggressive.
But...you never know. If politicians or central bankers (and some are political appointees with no independence) do something stupid, gold could move a ton. BitCoin is the wildcard that might draw $$$.
Yup, that's it. Plus, there aren't enough regulators. It's alot easier for regulators to keep tabs on 1 big bank with $500 BB in assets than 5 banks with $100 BB in assets. Or.....3 big regionals or locals with $100 BB in assets instead of 150 banks averaging $2 BB in assets.
We have about 4,500 banks (excluding credit unions). Canada I think has 10 or 12 (with 1/12th the population). Do we really need that many with PayPal, Venmo, and other payment Apps ?
Probably, but not my area of expertise. I needed my niece to help me when I wanted to use Venmo. I remember when PayPal was the cool payment system !
I suspect that the regulators will be allowing tons of mergers. Something has to give. You can't have all these banks.
You do sound like a big fan of central planning. I don't own any crypto (yet), but I do think that distributed ledger tech is a better idea than a central banking system. All of the large organizations are failing us.
I knew it would happen.
What central planning ? We have too many banks. You think we'd have as good a tech sector if we had dozens of operating systems instead of just 1 or 2 of them ?
We don't need 4,500 banks today just like we didn't need 12,000 of them in 1980. It's not the 1950's where you can only bank at a place up the road and everybody needs a bank branch within 3 blocks of where they live.
We don't need 4,500 banks today just like we didn't need 12,000 of them in 1980.
I sense an anti-competition bias, which is also anti-free enterprise. Congrats.
As ProofCollection points out:
the regulatory burden has grown to the extent that you have to be a big bank to be able to afford your compliance overhead
Who benefits most from over-regulation? The Big Banks.
It's not the 1950's where you can only bank at a place up the road and everybody needs a bank branch within 3 blocks of where they live.
And there's every reason NOT to patronize a predatory megabank when most banking can be done online anyway.
I knew it would happen.
Credit unions are starting to rule the retail sector on the West Coast. I have not used a bank for personal finance since I was in College and they will get creative with you on loans, like raw land. For business I use a local business bank where I know the owners, just like the old days.
When I'm shopping for loans or have special needs I'm happy to have lots of banks to choose from. Some offer free services (like checking) to get my business. I like that they have to compete. Ever try to get a loan on a vacant lot? Not all banks like to do those. What about construction loans or specialized business loans or services? It's getting better, but not many banks are crypto-friendly. I wish I could find a bank that would let me borrow against my bullion and coin collection. We need more competition, not less.
I wish I could find a bank that would let me borrow against my bullion and coin collection. We need more competition, not less.
Greg Hunter on USAWatchdog.com interviewed Katherine Austin Fitts today and she is involved in several state initiatives that are geared towards silver and gold as legal tender. You might want to check it out and support these efforts with some of the materials that she is supplying to various state legislators.
I knew it would happen.
My state (Arizona) already allows use of gold and silver as legal tender. But I'm not sure anyone wants to use a $20 gold eagle to pay for lunch.
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Are you saying that the Federal Reserve does not engage in "central planning" of the economy ?
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No, the sector isn't making a return on cost of capital. That means that banks will go out of business or merge. It's Economics 101.
You guys who want "competition".....you have plenty of competition. You don't need 4,500 different options. You don't have that for any other product or service you buy.
You'll be fine with 2 or 3 local options....3 or 4 more regional ones....and 5 or 6 national ones.
Nobody complained that The Big 3 (GM, Chrysler, Ford) weren't The Big 3,000 !!!
Yeah, because it's true. Central Planning means directing the means of production.
The Fed is simply maintaining credit and monetary conditions to generate growth with stable and low inflation. Anybody who thinks that The Fed is engaged in "central planning" doesn't understand what a central bank does and how it works and how Open Market Operations work.
There already exists competition for what you want. You may not like the price, but you're asking for a loan backed by risky collateral. And you wonder why banks get in trouble ??
Exactly. And you want less competition?
I wouldn't consider gold and silver bullion to be risky collateral. I would lend against gold and silver all day long at 40-50% LTV if I was a bank with a clause to payoff the loan/adjust the collateral if the ratio ever got to 80%. That's about as risk free as you can get.
Just another reason I'm excited to move to Arizona. Can't wait to drive down my dirt road and up to the little breakfast spot and drop a gram of gold for some biscuits and gravy!
Is not the "means of production" dependent on the policy that determines money supply and inflation rate? And if the FED is directing that policy is it not indirectly engaged in central planning? Has not its action (lower rates, record equity prices) in an election year proven it is also under the influence of politicians?
The FED is a failed central planner
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Honestly, I'm not sure what the purpose of the law is. Like I said, no one is going to use a $20 Gold Eagle for $20 paper USD worth of goods. The only thing I'm thinking it might apply for is if you wanted to buy a house or something with 200 gold eagles and you can legally record that you bought the house for $500. I'm not sure what benefit that is other than it gives a title company legal means to complete the transaction where as otherwise they might object.
BTW if you need a REALTOR when the time comes, message me!
That'd be some expensive biscuits and gravy. RGDS!
It's still risky. Does the bank know with 100% certitude that you or the person has what they say they do ? I guess if the bank is custodian for the assets, it's possible.
Also, numismatic coins can go down alot more than bullion (i.e., Bruce McNall). But even PM's can go down 70% in short notice.
Any Private Bank will lend on one's assets....including coin and art collections....but it's going to be done conservatively.
If this is something you want to seriously pursue, you want to deal with a bank that has a Private Bank for HNW or UHNW clients.
That's not true. Most are not setup for custodian of these types of assets and won't touch them and they don't have staff or training on how to handle and value these assets. They know securities, cars, and standard real estate, and that's about it.
Even then it can be challenging. I had rich friend who who needed a short term loan of a few million to fund an auto auction purchase. He was more than good for it, but he really struggled to get it done and at one point was sure it was going to fall through. Thousands of banks sounds like a lot but most of them are all the same. Anyone will give you a credit card, car loan, or 80% HELOC or a conventional mortgage. But when you get into niches and business, construction, and agricultural lending the options are very limited. Sure there's always a loan shark or pawn shop or someone who will charge you 20% interest, I'm talking about reasonable loan programs with rates under 10%.
We actually flew down in late July/early August and picked out some land down near Sierra Vista. Closed on the deal a few weeks back. Will still be a couple years before we are ready to start building but at least we have started the process.
Could a State constitutionally set up a gold exchange of some sort? Where they issue 'gold script' or something in exchange of for gold deposited? (and also give back the gold when script is redeemed... or if desired fed reserve notes based on the gold value?)
Just a wild question I guess, and not sure if would be workable or how it would even be set up. I also have wondered why states passing laws making gold and silver legal tender of sorts. Unless they are keeping such options open as per my question, in case case the Fed system started imploding? (not saying it is.... but who knows?)
If you have a gold ETF, that's custodiable. Also, some PB's will take control of your gold or other tangible assets and store them. Art not so likely, but we used to do it at DB for gold assets. I believe it was only done for clients with over $100 MM in assets.
When was that ? Lending got super-tight after the 2008-09 GFC. My father used to have a HELOC with $300,000 against his totally mortgage-free home. Afterwards, the most they would give him was MAYBE $50K !!
If Warren Buffet applied for a loan, with his $100,000 annual salary or whatever, they'd probably turn him down too !
They tend to ignore assets UNLESS it's verified with the PB.
You or your friend would be perfect for a PB. They specialize in the niches. Goto a PB...talk to a Private Banker....tell him the specifics of what you or your friend what. They'll tell you if it is doable.
I used to manage $$$ for 1 or 2 families/individuals that were Top 10 on the Forbes 400 in wealth (then and now). Whatever they wanted, they got. Would we do the same thing with someone with $25 MM ?
Probably not...
Even if they COULD....who would want to deal with them ? The states have enough trouble balancing their budget and fully-funding pension and OPEBs.....many have lousy credits for tax-exempt muni offerings.
Now they're gonna get into gold ?
I think most people would rather deal with the NYSE, COMEX, CME, and CBOE. 
Back to gold....we hit $2,755. Media attention is practically nil, which is what you want to see if you are bullish.
I think it's quite possible we hit $3,000 before year-end.
You're not even reading what I write. shared of ETFs are securities.
A few years ago. Clearly that was a different time and unique situation. I was never referring to those kinds of times.
Trust me, he has private bankers, money managers, etc.
People in the net worth area well over $100M are in a class of their own. It definitely a different story for those in the "meager" $10M-20Mish realm.
I'm not sure what you meant to type...my point is the PB will want either physical custody of the assets (with a gold ETF, it's already there) or verifiable proof. People remember "Crazy Eddie" and his inventory scam, especially here in NY.
I'm not sure what your argument here is. My point is that very few banks if any are setup to take possession of assets to hold them for collateral. And as you say and I agree, a bank would require possession of the asset(s). That's why we need more banks, not less as there may be a handful out there that are willing to do this but not many. If you know of some, please post some names.
What I was saying was that if an investor wanted to borrow against gold...if they hold XAU or another gold ETF....with the bank....that's easy to check. And some banks WILL store gold coins/bars for clients or do an inventory check or work with some outside custodians who they feel comfortable verifying the assets.
I haven't worked for a PB in years but both European banks I worked for from 1998-2010 offered these services. Of course, European banks tend to be more pro-gold in asset allocations.