Speaking to a local coin dealer here in the Commonwealth (as some say), he told me there is a hard stop at $3K for gold and the wholesalers will stop buying. Take it for what it is worth, realizing it is hearsay, but bullion is where he makes his money now. Nobody is buying coins be it $50 or $5000.
@ProofCollection said:
I'm not sure what your argument here is. My point is that very few banks if any are setup to take possession of assets to hold them for collateral. And as you say and I agree, a bank would require possession of the asset(s). That's why we need more banks, not less as there may be a handful out there that are willing to do this but not many. If you know of some, please post some names.
What I was saying was that if an investor wanted to borrow against gold...if they hold XAU or another gold ETF....with the bank....that's easy to check. And some banks WILL store gold coins/bars for clients or do an inventory check or work with some outside custodians who they feel comfortable verifying the assets.
Yeah, and XAU and gold ETF are securities which in my post I said the banks know how to lend against securities. No one should be fooled. Paper gold isn't gold. I would never turn my gold into paper to be able to borrow against it.
I haven't worked for a PB in years but both European banks I worked for from 1998-2010 offered these services. Of course, European banks tend to be more pro-gold in asset allocations.
I can't speak for other countries. My comments are for the US only.
@psuman08 said:
Speaking to a local coin dealer here in the Commonwealth (as some say), he told me there is a hard stop at $3K for gold and the wholesalers will stop buying. Take it for what it is worth, realizing it is hearsay, but bullion is where he makes his money now. Nobody is buying coins be it $50 or $5000.
Interesting, the price movement this time however is driven by large, some would say unprecedent, central bank buying not retail demand. They are buying those big bars straight from the miners and not coins. I could see retail just drying up but the price keep moving up and not even noticing the near zero retail demand.
@psuman08 said:
Speaking to a local coin dealer here in the Commonwealth (as some say), he told me there is a hard stop at $3K for gold and the wholesalers will stop buying. Take it for what it is worth, realizing it is hearsay, but bullion is where he makes his money now. Nobody is buying coins be it $50 or $5000.
Interesting, the price movement this time however is driven by large so would say unprecedent ant central bank buying not retail demand. They are buying those big bars straight from the miners and not coins. I could see retail just drying up but the price keep moving up and not even noticing the near zero retail demand.
Yep. And eventually, suddenly the retail channel will dry up and prices and premiums will fly overnight. I think we'll all be amazed. I would not be surprised to see $125 silver next year.
@psuman08 said:
Speaking to a local coin dealer here in the Commonwealth (as some say), he told me there is a hard stop at $3K for gold and the wholesalers will stop buying. Take it for what it is worth, realizing it is hearsay, but bullion is where he makes his money now. Nobody is buying coins be it $50 or $5000.
Interesting, the price movement this time however is driven by large, some would say unprecedent, central bank buying not retail demand. They are buying those big bars straight from the miners and not coins. I could see retail just drying up but the price keep moving up and not even noticing the near zero retail demand.
I don't disagree with you. That said he is doing a very brisk retail business in bullion. In the hour I was there, he sold a monster box and probably another 150 oz of silver. I know from the last several visits he has sold a bunch of gold while occasionally buying 50K-100K. I was shocked to say the least that the wholesaler shared with him.
@psuman08 said:
Speaking to a local coin dealer here in the Commonwealth (as some say), he told me there is a hard stop at $3K for gold and the wholesalers will stop buying. Take it for what it is worth, realizing it is hearsay, but bullion is where he makes his money now. Nobody is buying coins be it $50 or $5000.
Once she plows through $3K that sentiment will quickly change. God bless gold and god bless The Commonwealth. RGDS!
@dcarr said:
Are you saying that the Federal Reserve does not engage in "central planning" of the economy ?
Yeah, because it's true. Central Planning means directing the means of production.
The Fed is simply maintaining credit and monetary conditions to generate growth with stable and low inflation. Anybody who thinks that The Fed is engaged in "central planning" doesn't understand what a central bank does and how it works and how Open Market Operations work.
.
It is definitely "centrally planned" for the benefit of the FED's member/owner banks.
@psuman08 said:
Speaking to a local coin dealer here in the Commonwealth (as some say), he told me there is a hard stop at $3K for gold and the wholesalers will stop buying. Take it for what it is worth, realizing it is hearsay, but bullion is where he makes his money now. Nobody is buying coins be it $50 or $5000.
Round numbers have ALWAYS provided resistance, I remember the DJIA stalling out at 2,999.75 or something like that. Digital Equipment, the Nvidia of the 1980's bull market, got up to $199 7/8ths....imagine having a SELL order for $200 !!
@psuman08 said:
Speaking to a local coin dealer here in the Commonwealth (as some say), he told me there is a hard stop at $3K for gold and the wholesalers will stop buying. Take it for what it is worth, realizing it is hearsay, but bullion is where he makes his money now. Nobody is buying coins be it $50 or $5000.
Interesting, the price movement this time however is driven by large, some would say unprecedent, central bank buying not retail demand. They are buying those big bars straight from the miners and not coins. I could see retail just drying up but the price keep moving up and not even noticing the near zero retail demand.
Alot of that Central Bank purchasing IS for retail and consumer usages. Especially India and China CBs. Russian CB less so.
@dcarr said:
It is definitely "centrally planned" for the benefit of the FED's member/owner banks.
I've been listening to bank earnings CC's for over 40 years. I've NEVER heard the ownership in the Fed, FHLMC, FNMA, GNMA, FHLBB, FFCA, etc....mentioned in earnings.
Show me how many mentions using that Google tool that mentions word usage. I'll bet it's close to zero.
You continue to spew nonsense as the Fed must be doing a crappy job if the profitability of the banking sector is less now than 30 or 50 or 70 years ago.
@ProofCollection said:> > @Clackamas1 said:
Yep. And eventually, suddenly the retail channel will dry up and prices and premiums will fly overnight. I think we'll all be amazed. I would not be surprised to see $125 silver next year.
You think silver might QUADRUPLE in a year ???
Unless eating silver cures cancer or other ailments, I don't see how you get that kind of move unless monetary implosions are driving all PMs much higher.
I do think silver moves higher...in part dragged upward by gold....but unless ICE autos are banned tomorrow, not sure where we see a huge surge in silver demand.
@ProofCollection said:> > @Clackamas1 said:
Yep. And eventually, suddenly the retail channel will dry up and prices and premiums will fly overnight. I think we'll all be amazed. I would not be surprised to see $125 silver next year.
You think silver might QUADRUPLE in a year ???
Unless eating silver cures cancer or other ailments, I don't see how you get that kind of move unless monetary implosions are driving all PMs much higher.
I do think silver moves higher...in part dragged upward by gold....but unless ICE autos are banned tomorrow, not sure where we see a huge surge in silver demand.
History is strewn with examples.of excessive euphoria.
@psuman08 said:
Speaking to a local coin dealer here in the Commonwealth (as some say), he told me there is a hard stop at $3K for gold and the wholesalers will stop buying. Take it for what it is worth, realizing it is hearsay, but bullion is where he makes his money now. Nobody is buying coins be it $50 or $5000.
Round numbers have ALWAYS provided resistance, I remember the DJIA stalling out at 2,999.75 or something like that. Digital Equipment, the Nvidia of the 1980's bull market, got up to $199 7/8ths....imagine having a SELL order for $200 !!
Round numbers are less relevant on global commodities that are widely traded in other currencies. You think Europeans care that gold's at $3000 when they're paying 2780 Euros?
@psuman08 said:
Speaking to a local coin dealer here in the Commonwealth (as some say), he told me there is a hard stop at $3K for gold and the wholesalers will stop buying. Take it for what it is worth, realizing it is hearsay, but bullion is where he makes his money now. Nobody is buying coins be it $50 or $5000.
Interesting, the price movement this time however is driven by large, some would say unprecedent, central bank buying not retail demand. They are buying those big bars straight from the miners and not coins. I could see retail just drying up but the price keep moving up and not even noticing the near zero retail demand.
Alot of that Central Bank purchasing IS for retail and consumer usages. Especially India and China CBs. Russian CB less so.
So those CBs sell metal directly to citizens? I don't think that is particularly common. Throughout the 90's and 00's many central banks made big press releases about dumping their metal reserves. Now they have reversed this trend. I don't think it has anything to do with sales to citizens and the metal purchased for that purpose is probably small in comparison to the amount purchased to place into reserves. PMs are becoming more important as nations are now trading with each other in their own currencies rather than the USD so these countries have extra motivation to bolster their reserves.
@ProofCollection said:> > @Clackamas1 said:
Yep. And eventually, suddenly the retail channel will dry up and prices and premiums will fly overnight. I think we'll all be amazed. I would not be surprised to see $125 silver next year.
You think silver might QUADRUPLE in a year ???
Unless eating silver cures cancer or other ailments, I don't see how you get that kind of move unless monetary implosions are driving all PMs much higher.
I do think silver moves higher...in part dragged upward by gold....but unless ICE autos are banned tomorrow, not sure where we see a huge surge in silver demand.
These are macro trends from huge buyers that I think will be more impactful than expected. The one thing that we're not factoring in is that these particular countries are smart about these actions. They don't telegraph their moves ahead of time like the Western countries do like when they foolishly broadcast that they are going to sell hundreds of tons of metal into the market before they do it to ensure they get lower sale prices. They have been and are stealthily accumulating.
Short term gold will continue to outperform silver but that's going to flip, probably next year. $2800 gold near term is pretty much a certainty.
@ProofCollection said:> > @Clackamas1 said:
Yep. And eventually, suddenly the retail channel will dry up and prices and premiums will fly overnight. I think we'll all be amazed. I would not be surprised to see $125 silver next year.
You think silver might QUADRUPLE in a year ???
Unless eating silver cures cancer or other ailments, I don't see how you get that kind of move unless monetary implosions are driving all PMs much higher.
I do think silver moves higher...in part dragged upward by gold....but unless ICE autos are banned tomorrow, not sure where we see a huge surge in silver demand.
There is going to be upward pressure with the solid state batteries. They don't take as much as is stated in the search results from Google but it will increase industrial use.
@psuman08 said:
Speaking to a local coin dealer here in the Commonwealth (as some say), he told me there is a hard stop at $3K for gold and the wholesalers will stop buying. Take it for what it is worth, realizing it is hearsay, but bullion is where he makes his money now. Nobody is buying coins be it $50 or $5000.
Round numbers have ALWAYS provided resistance, I remember the DJIA stalling out at 2,999.75 or something like that. Digital Equipment, the Nvidia of the 1980's bull market, got up to $199 7/8ths....imagine having a SELL order for $200 !!
Round numbers are less relevant on global commodities that are widely traded in other currencies. You think Europeans care that gold's at $3000 when they're paying 2780 Euros?
Silver really likes to hover at $1000 a Kg. $999.22 a kg today.
@ProofCollection said:> > @Clackamas1 said:
Yep. And eventually, suddenly the retail channel will dry up and prices and premiums will fly overnight. I think we'll all be amazed. I would not be surprised to see $125 silver next year.
You think silver might QUADRUPLE in a year ???
Unless eating silver cures cancer or other ailments, I don't see how you get that kind of move unless monetary implosions are driving all PMs much higher.
I do think silver moves higher...in part dragged upward by gold....but unless ICE autos are banned tomorrow, not sure where we see a huge surge in silver demand.
There is going to be upward pressure with the solid state batteries. They don't take as much as is stated in the search results from Google but it will increase industrial use.
Here's the relevant chart from one of the articles I linked. Industrial demand is a factor, but the biggest factor is that the supply deficit. You can run a supply deficit until all of the slack gets shored up. Then then price has no choice but to start moving. How much slack is left?
@ProofCollection said:> > @Clackamas1 said:
Yep. And eventually, suddenly the retail channel will dry up and prices and premiums will fly overnight. I think we'll all be amazed. I would not be surprised to see $125 silver next year.
You think silver might QUADRUPLE in a year ???
Unless eating silver cures cancer or other ailments, I don't see how you get that kind of move unless monetary implosions are driving all PMs much higher.
I do think silver moves higher...in part dragged upward by gold....but unless ICE autos are banned tomorrow, not sure where we see a huge surge in silver demand.
There is going to be upward pressure with the solid state batteries. They don't take as much as is stated in the search results from Google but it will increase industrial use.
Here's the relevant chart from one of the articles I linked. Industrial demand is a factor, but the biggest factor is that the supply deficit. You can run a supply deficit until all of the slack gets shored up. Then then price has no choice but to start moving. How much slack is left?
!"")
Mine production may be very easy to increase with increased price. I spend quite a bit of time in Nevada and when gold was sub $700 they had had mine operation in Winnemucca largely shut down but when it went over $800 - bam boom town. There are tons of silver mines not in production. I was in a mine a few weeks ago that shut down in the 60's and I was picking up super high grade silver ore off of the ground. Big chunks. At $125 an OZ those will all reopen. The same is true for copper. There are some very large (mountain range size) lower grade porphyry deposits of copper that just are not economical yet. The reserves can be measured in cubic miles for copper.
The silver mine I was in probably has 3 cubic miles of potential deposits. The issue with it is that it needs to be open pit and not shafts and the veins are at such an angle that it would take quite a bit to remove the over burden chasing near vertical pay.
@Clackamas1 said:
Mine production may be very easy to increase with increased price. I spend quite a bit of time in Nevada and when gold was sub $700 they had had mine operation in Winnemucca largely shut down but when it went over $800 - bam boom town. There are tons of silver mines not in production. I was in a mine a few weeks ago that shut down in the 60's and I was picking up super high grade silver ore off of the ground. Big chunks. At $125 an OZ those will all reopen. The same is true for copper. There are some very large (mountain range size) lower grade porphyry deposits of copper that just are not economical yet. The reserves can be measured in cubic miles for copper. The silver mine I was in probably has 3 cubic miles of potential deposits. The issue with it is that it needs to be open pit and not shafts and the veins are at such an angle that it would take quite a bit to remove the over burden chasing near vertical pay.
If silver (or gold) spiked that % in a short term, a ton of supply would come out in 1-2 years. A slower rise however would probably encounter rising input costs. That's why so much shareholder value was destroyed by miners from 2005-20 despite much higher prices.
Some of these "supply deficits" can be met by institutional selling of silver and even CB sales (we did some of that in the 1960's). I'm not sure if any shortages can lead to a rapid-fire price rise like we saw with GME shares back in 2021 but stranger things have happened.
ProofCollection said Here's the relevant chart from one of the articles I linked. Industrial demand is a factor, but the biggest factor is that the supply deficit. You can run a supply deficit until all of the slack gets shored up. Then then price has no choice but to start moving. How much slack is left?
I don't know. But hasn't that deficit persisted for years ?
It's strange that gold is 30% above the 2011-12 peak but silver is still 30% below. Maybe solid state and solar and EVs are gamechangers for silver...but if they were definitively, you'd think some SWFs, institutions, or HFs would be plugging the metal and/or buying shares of miners or the metal itself, right ?
@dcarr said:
It is definitely "centrally planned" for the benefit of the FED's member/owner banks.
I've been listening to bank earnings CC's for over 40 years. I've NEVER heard the ownership in the Fed, FHLMC, FNMA, GNMA, FHLBB, FFCA, etc....mentioned in earnings.
Show me how many mentions using that Google tool that mentions word usage. I'll bet it's close to zero.
You continue to spew nonsense as the Fed must be doing a crappy job if the profitability of the banking sector is less now than 30 or 50 or 70 years ago.
.
I'm not surprised that shareholders of the FED don't want to mention that.
Most of the "banking sector" is not members/owners of the Federal Reserve corporation.
And today is Exhibit 1 in why you want to buy the metal, not the miners:
Newmont Mining (NEM) is down 14% on a bad earnings miss....higher costs...lower revenues. The stock is basically at the same level when gold was $2,000 or $1000 or $450 an ounce.
This is another reason why I am bullish on the gold price; the supply is highly inelastic to prices. If the miners are run to maximize shareholder value, that's a plus.
My thoughts are Newmont upper management need to be fired, and the BOD is not doing their job.
IMO, they keep wasting money and stock buying worn-out companies and deposits for massively higher stock or cash prices than any rational, net present value, time value of money calculation should justify. There used to be some mining engineers who would tell them they are wrong once in a while and not to buy everything. Apparently now it is MBA types, who do not understand mining and are too far from the actual work at the sites to see how things really are. All they want to do is make deals. Pathetic really.
To get Newcrest, Newmont issued 357,691,627 new shares of Newmont common stock, including 15,720,585 New Newmont Shares, 341,792,611 shares underlying New Newmont CDIs and 178,431 shares underlying New Newmont PDIs. Massive share dilution.
And this...all-in sustaining costs to $1,611 per ounce, well above the forecasted $1,374. Seems like they need to talk to some analysts ahead of time, so they don't miss so badly, which the market really hates. Capital expenditures, net of capital accruals, soared to $877 million in the quarter from $604 million a year ago.
They are buying to keep up with their upper management egos to be the biggest and are not putting enough effort into drilling in the land they already own, and focusing more on margin, instead of total sales and marginal reserves.
I sold most of my Newmont a while back and am glad I did. Sold the last of it yesterday after hours. They dragged Barrick and GDX down too, but those may recover some from here.
Edited to say maybe at $49.2 it is low enough to buy again for those like me who are gluttons for punishment. Maybe their stock buyback program will start here. The executive pay in the form of stock options are in need of management support
These clowns are where the E&P/shale operators were in the early-2010's....they need to get religion. For oil, it was negative oil prices and a 50% lower oil price for a few years that got them to do something different.
Sure hope we don't need to see that for gold miners and the PM miners !
I suspect that the stock market is getting ready for a significant drop, taking gold and silver along with it temporarily. The Fed will then step in and inflate like crazy with huge amounts of imaginary money created out of thin air, and then the precious metals will make a monumental move up while the dollar crashes hard.
You heard it here first.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@jmski52 said:
I suspect that the stock market is getting ready for a significant drop, taking gold and silver along with it temporarily. The Fed will then step in and inflate like crazy with huge amounts of imaginary money created out of thin air, and then the precious metals will make a monumental move up while the dollar crashes hard.
You heard it here first.
With all due respect we've been hearing the same thing from you and @Derryb since 2006. That's almost 20 years now. Got a time frame? THKS!
Scotia Bank weighted in on the lousy NEM results. Thought some of you might want to see this. Unfortunately, I can't attach the actual PDF so here's a JPEG screenshot:
I suspect that the stock market is getting ready for a significant drop, taking gold and silver along with it temporarily. The Fed will then step in and inflate like crazy with huge amounts of imaginary money created out of thin air, and then the precious metals will make a monumental move up while the dollar crashes hard.
You heard it here first.
With all due respect we've been hearing the same thing from you and @Derryb since 2006. That's almost 20 years now. Got a time frame? THKS!
Um, you haven't been posting here that long. But if you had, you would know that is exactly what happened in 2008 during the housing market bubble's burst.
Only this time, it's a much MUCH larger bubble. Here's a brain teaser for you - if everything as so rosy as you say, why is gold making new all-time highs? If the BRICS and other central banks aren't causing gold's historic price increases by dumping dollars, why is it happening?
Timeframe? Well, it could be any day now. Normalcy bias is not your friend, and that's all derryb and I are pointing out. Uncle Sam and the Fed are putting out bogus numbers on the economy all the time, and even Goldfinger is saying that the banks aren't doing so hot. Not only are the banks not doing so well, there are 150-200 of them on a watch list that you and I don't get to see. Liquidity is drying up, the reverse repo fund is almost used up, and market rates are moving up, in spite of the recent 50 basis rate cut.
If you really think that the debt bubble is only about "a bunch of made up "digits" that means absolutely nothing", then try not paying your mortgage loan or your car loan and see what happens. You won't be getting another loan any time soon. Debt has consequences, even for the government. Bill Holter talks about the effects of a credit freeze. You may want to contemplate that as well.
Creating more imaginary dollars won't cut it this time. The only way to begin restoring faith in the dollar and in our debt market is to stop government spending, which ain't gonna happen. It's only going exponential. Oh, there's going to be a great reset, and nobody except the bankers and politicians and Klaus Schwab will be happy about it.
Maybe even gold or crypto won't help much. We shall see. Ask me that question in about 12 months. I could say that a crash is imminent within 6 months, but it would only be my best guess.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I was absolutely reading these boards back in 2006.
Gold is simply adjusting with inflation just as it always does. Sure, there are a few geopolitical events probably contributing to the recent rise; Iran/Israel, Ukraine, wannabe dictators trying to divide and conquer etc.
I'm an individual not a government. My net worth has increased 104x since 2008. I use credit cards that are paid in full every month, don't do loans other than the mortgage which was officially paid in full on 10/17/24. Debt means nothing to me as I officially have 0.
As for the gooberment they can continue to print as much paper as they choose and when they decide they want to wipe out the debt they will do so with a simple keystroke on the computer.
My prediction, 12 months from now the net worth will still be BOOMIN and you will still be sitting in the bunker calling for the end of the world. RGDS!
When it crumbles it will reveal itself as a house of cards to those who refuse to weigh the evidence. Til then we agree to disagree respectfully.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@derryb said:
When it crumbles it will reveal itself as a house of cards to those who refuse to weigh the evidence. Til then we agree to disagree respectfully.
The market disagrees with you -- and that is ALL that matters.
Yes, there are problems here and there -- there are ALWAYS those problems. But the housing bubble was clear because you had clear speculation excesses there with people buying and flipping houses with Nothing Down.
We already had the Fed take up rates at a historic pace and to a historic level from ZIRP -- and markets have adjusted domestically and globally.
If you really believed what you post here, you would have an investment fund or strategy clearly outlined that invested in the items you believe in. Then we could actually see what you did with money entrusted to you and other perma-bears always waiting for another collapse.
@derryb said:
When it crumbles it will reveal itself as a house of cards to those who refuse to weigh the evidence. Til then we agree to disagree respectfully.
Why don't you tell us when this will happen...give us a time frame ?
Tell us what happens in the U.S. to our financial markets and to other countries, too.
Talk is cheap, Derry. Give us specifics or don't post. Really. It gets tiring.
Bill Holter and Klaus Schwab are nobodies (though Schwab was involved with the WEF, a globalist NGO). They don't manage any serious money...they just post BS in cyberspace and don't have any track record to speak of.
If you really believed what you post here, you would have an investment fund or strategy clearly outlined that invested in the items you believe in. Then we could actually see what you did with money entrusted to you and other perma-bears always waiting for another collapse.
And what makes you so sure I don't? LOL
You mentioned "another" collapse. So you also see it unfolding, but scorn me for bringing attention to the signs it is on the horizon? LOL.
I invite you to share your personal investments/financials. Last time I responded by doing so I was called a liar and had to protect my name with screen shots of the proof. Nope, won't go down that road again.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@derryb said:
When it crumbles it will reveal itself as a house of cards to those who refuse to weigh the evidence. Til then we agree to disagree respectfully.
Why don't you tell us when this will happen...give us a time frame ?
It's underway. Check the current cost of your comfort.
Tell us what happens in the U.S. to our financial markets and to other countries, too.
World financial markets will crash as the disease spreads.
Talk is cheap, Derry. Give us specifics or don't post. Really. It gets tiring.
Everything I link you to is specifics. Apparently you listen when I talk. If it disturbs you don't listen. It's easy to block me.
Bill Holter and Klaus Schwab are nobodies (though Schwab was involved with the WEF, a globalist NGO). They don't manage any serious money...they just post BS in cyberspace and don't have any track record to speak of.
I'm happy with my track record.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
If this is really true, you have $10,000 for every $100 that you had in 2008. I suppose it's possible, but I'm skeptical.
Debt means nothing to me as I officially have 0. Good for you!
As for the gooberment they can continue to print as much paper as they choose and when they decide they want to wipe out the debt they will do so with a simple keystroke on the computer.
What do YOU think will happen when the gooberment wipes out the debt with a simple keystroke on a computer? I'd like to know your perspective. Will it just be certain types of debt? Why do you think you will be unaffected?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
There have been at least 2. Continental currency, FDR's executive order, and maybe JP Morgan's bailout of the gov't in 1896 but I would need to study the specifics.
You can also include the 2008 TARP bailout of the banking system and their friends.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Bill Holter and Klaus Schwab are nobodies (though Schwab was involved with the WEF, a globalist NGO). They don't manage any serious money...they just post BS in cyberspace and don't have any track record to speak of.
First, you probably don't even know who Bill Holter is.
Secondly, if you don't think that Schwab carries a ton of influence with a whole slew of world leaders and the policies that they enact, you are completely out of it.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@jmski52 said: How many "collapses" has the US already endured?
There have been at least 2. Continental currency, FDR's executive order, and maybe JP Morgan's bailout of the gov't in 1896 but I would need to study the specifics.
You can also include the 2008 TARP bailout of the banking system and their friends.
I would also include the collapse of the paper money being held by people living in the southern states in 1865.
When I started collecting coins in the 1960's, 35 paper dollars could buy an ounce of gold. Today, it takes 2,750 paper dollars to buy that same ounce of gold. Our paper money is going through a slow-motion collapse.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
@jmski52 said: My net worth has increased 104x since 2008.
If this is really true, you have $10,000 for every $100 that you had in 2008. I suppose it's possible, but I'm skeptical.
Yes, you were at least somewhat paying attention during math class. Had I not dabbled in the gutter I'd probably be somewhat closer to $15,000 for every $100. RGDS!
I think it's hard to dispute that the current level of government deficit spending and central bank money printing is accelerating and unsustainable. The real issue is how long can this go on? I easily could have made this statement 20 years ago, yet the world and the US dollar continue. Things are changing. Global crypto currencies and BRICs are going to change the dynamics considerably. I'm still not sure doom is imminent, but governments can only print and spend so much.
@jmski52 said: My net worth has increased 104x since 2008.
If this is really true, you have $10,000 for every $100 that you had in 2008. I suppose it's possible, but I'm skeptical.
Yes, you were at least somewhat paying attention during math class. Had I not dabbled in the gutter I'd probably be somewhat closer to $15,000 for every $100. RGDS!
Congrats, and again, can you tell me what RGDS means that you put at the end of lots of your posts? Asking for a friend.
@ProofCollection said:
I think it's hard to dispute that the current level of government deficit spending and central bank money printing is accelerating and unsustainable. The real issue is how long can this go on? I easily could have made this statement 20 years ago, yet the world and the US dollar continue. Things are changing. Global crypto currencies and BRICs are going to change the dynamics considerably. I'm still not sure doom is imminent, but governments can only print and spend so much.
@jmski52 said: My net worth has increased 104x since 2008.
If this is really true, you have $10,000 for every $100 that you had in 2008. I suppose it's possible, but I'm skeptical.
Yes, you were at least somewhat paying attention during math class. Had I not dabbled in the gutter I'd probably be somewhat closer to $15,000 for every $100. RGDS!
Congrats, and again, can you tell me what RGDS means that you put at the end of lots of your posts? Asking for a friend.
The abbreviation RGDS stands for “Regards” and is commonly used in emails and online messages as a way to send well wishes or express friendly sentiments. It is similar to saying “best wishes” or “take care.” People often use RGDS when communicating with friends, acquaintances, or colleagues.
Some other examples include HAND (Have a Nice Day), HAGD (Have a Great Day), BB (Bye Bye), TC (Take Care), at least it is not XOXO (Hugs and Kisses). LOL
@ProofCollection said:
I think it's hard to dispute that the current level of government deficit spending and central bank money printing is accelerating and unsustainable. The real issue is how long can this go on? I easily could have made this statement 20 years ago, yet the world and the US dollar continue. Things are changing. Global crypto currencies and BRICs are going to change the dynamics considerably. I'm still not sure doom is imminent, but governments can only print and spend so much.
@jmski52 said: My net worth has increased 104x since 2008.
If this is really true, you have $10,000 for every $100 that you had in 2008. I suppose it's possible, but I'm skeptical.
Yes, you were at least somewhat paying attention during math class. Had I not dabbled in the gutter I'd probably be somewhat closer to $15,000 for every $100. RGDS!
Congrats, and again, can you tell me what RGDS means that you put at the end of lots of your posts? Asking for a friend.
The abbreviation RGDS stands for “Regards” and is commonly used in emails and online messages as a way to send well wishes or express friendly sentiments. It is similar to saying “best wishes” or “take care.” People often use RGDS when communicating with friends, acquaintances, or colleagues.
Some other examples include HAND (Have a Nice Day), HAGD (Have a Great Day), BB (Bye Bye), TC (Take Care), at least it is not XOXO (Hugs and Kisses). LOL
Thanks, I wasn't sure if it was an acronym, saving 3 letters didn't make sense, and I couldn't figure out the context. I am getting too old for the internet.
Yes, you were at least somewhat paying attention during math class. Had I not dabbled in the gutter I'd probably be somewhat closer to $15,000 for every $100. RGDS!
Lol, so am I to assume that in 2008 you had about $200 to your name. Congrats on digging out of a hole!
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@blitzdude said:
Debt means nothing to me as I officially have 0.
The declining dollars in your bank account would beg to differ.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@jmski52 said: Yes, you were at least somewhat paying attention during math class. Had I not dabbled in the gutter I'd probably be somewhat closer to $15,000 for every $100. RGDS!
Lol, so am I to assume that in 2008 you had about $200 to your name. Congrats on digging out of a hole!
@derryb said:
I invite you to share your personal investments/financials. Last time I responded by doing so I was called a liar and had to protect my name with screen shots of the proof. Nope, won't go down that road again.
I have no Secret Sauce: depending on one's age, income and net worth...I recommend a balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds. 60/40 give-or-take depending on risk tolerance.
Nobody is asking you to reveal confidential information. I'll settle for a sample portfolio.
@derryb said:
I invite you to share your personal investments/financials. Last time I responded by doing so I was called a liar and had to protect my name with screen shots of the proof. Nope, won't go down that road again.
I have no Secret Sauce: depending on one's age, income and net worth...I recommend a balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds. 60/40 give-or-take depending on risk tolerance.
Nobody is asking you to reveal confidential information. I'll settle for a sample portfolio.
at the moment: 15% equities, 15% real estate, 20% metal, 50% cash. No debt.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Comments
Speaking to a local coin dealer here in the Commonwealth (as some say), he told me there is a hard stop at $3K for gold and the wholesalers will stop buying. Take it for what it is worth, realizing it is hearsay, but bullion is where he makes his money now. Nobody is buying coins be it $50 or $5000.
Yeah, and XAU and gold ETF are securities which in my post I said the banks know how to lend against securities. No one should be fooled. Paper gold isn't gold. I would never turn my gold into paper to be able to borrow against it.
I can't speak for other countries. My comments are for the US only.
Interesting, the price movement this time however is driven by large, some would say unprecedent, central bank buying not retail demand. They are buying those big bars straight from the miners and not coins. I could see retail just drying up but the price keep moving up and not even noticing the near zero retail demand.
Yep. And eventually, suddenly the retail channel will dry up and prices and premiums will fly overnight. I think we'll all be amazed. I would not be surprised to see $125 silver next year.
I don't disagree with you. That said he is doing a very brisk retail business in bullion. In the hour I was there, he sold a monster box and probably another 150 oz of silver. I know from the last several visits he has sold a bunch of gold while occasionally buying 50K-100K. I was shocked to say the least that the wholesaler shared with him.
Once she plows through $3K that sentiment will quickly change. God bless gold and god bless The Commonwealth. RGDS!
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It is definitely "centrally planned" for the benefit of the FED's member/owner banks.
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Round numbers have ALWAYS provided resistance, I remember the DJIA stalling out at 2,999.75 or something like that. Digital Equipment, the Nvidia of the 1980's bull market, got up to $199 7/8ths....imagine having a SELL order for $200 !!
Alot of that Central Bank purchasing IS for retail and consumer usages. Especially India and China CBs. Russian CB less so.
I've been listening to bank earnings CC's for over 40 years. I've NEVER heard the ownership in the Fed, FHLMC, FNMA, GNMA, FHLBB, FFCA, etc....mentioned in earnings.
Show me how many mentions using that Google tool that mentions word usage. I'll bet it's close to zero.
You continue to spew nonsense as the Fed must be doing a crappy job if the profitability of the banking sector is less now than 30 or 50 or 70 years ago.
You think silver might QUADRUPLE in a year ???
Unless eating silver cures cancer or other ailments, I don't see how you get that kind of move unless monetary implosions are driving all PMs much higher.
I do think silver moves higher...in part dragged upward by gold....but unless ICE autos are banned tomorrow, not sure where we see a huge surge in silver demand.
History is strewn with examples.of excessive euphoria.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
He's confusing silver with platinum or palladium.
I knew it would happen.
Round numbers are less relevant on global commodities that are widely traded in other currencies. You think Europeans care that gold's at $3000 when they're paying 2780 Euros?
So those CBs sell metal directly to citizens? I don't think that is particularly common. Throughout the 90's and 00's many central banks made big press releases about dumping their metal reserves. Now they have reversed this trend. I don't think it has anything to do with sales to citizens and the metal purchased for that purpose is probably small in comparison to the amount purchased to place into reserves. PMs are becoming more important as nations are now trading with each other in their own currencies rather than the USD so these countries have extra motivation to bolster their reserves.
I do. As I mentioned earlier, as I understand it, a lot of hoards and reserves have been bought down. And now we see countries like Russia moving to not only hold gold reserves, but now also silver.
https://www.numismaticnews.net/coin-market/russias-central-bank-to-acquire-silver-reserves#:~:text=Russia's central bank announced that,in their reserves was gold.
China's also been quietly accumulating extra silver.
https://www.jpost.com/business-and-innovation/precious-metals/article-815780
https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/09/03/chinese-silver-demand-surges-is-this-a-calculated-move-003426
And industrial demand continues to outstrip supply:
https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/04/19/silver-demand-outstrips-supply-for-third-straight-year-003135
These are macro trends from huge buyers that I think will be more impactful than expected. The one thing that we're not factoring in is that these particular countries are smart about these actions. They don't telegraph their moves ahead of time like the Western countries do like when they foolishly broadcast that they are going to sell hundreds of tons of metal into the market before they do it to ensure they get lower sale prices. They have been and are stealthily accumulating.
Short term gold will continue to outperform silver but that's going to flip, probably next year. $2800 gold near term is pretty much a certainty.
There is going to be upward pressure with the solid state batteries. They don't take as much as is stated in the search results from Google but it will increase industrial use.
Silver really likes to hover at $1000 a Kg. $999.22 a kg today.
Here's the relevant chart from one of the articles I linked. Industrial demand is a factor, but the biggest factor is that the supply deficit. You can run a supply deficit until all of the slack gets shored up. Then then price has no choice but to start moving. How much slack is left?
Mine production may be very easy to increase with increased price. I spend quite a bit of time in Nevada and when gold was sub $700 they had had mine operation in Winnemucca largely shut down but when it went over $800 - bam boom town. There are tons of silver mines not in production. I was in a mine a few weeks ago that shut down in the 60's and I was picking up super high grade silver ore off of the ground. Big chunks. At $125 an OZ those will all reopen. The same is true for copper. There are some very large (mountain range size) lower grade porphyry deposits of copper that just are not economical yet. The reserves can be measured in cubic miles for copper.
The silver mine I was in probably has 3 cubic miles of potential deposits. The issue with it is that it needs to be open pit and not shafts and the veins are at such an angle that it would take quite a bit to remove the over burden chasing near vertical pay.
If silver (or gold) spiked that % in a short term, a ton of supply would come out in 1-2 years. A slower rise however would probably encounter rising input costs. That's why so much shareholder value was destroyed by miners from 2005-20 despite much higher prices.
Some of these "supply deficits" can be met by institutional selling of silver and even CB sales (we did some of that in the 1960's). I'm not sure if any shortages can lead to a rapid-fire price rise like we saw with GME shares back in 2021 but stranger things have happened.
I don't know. But hasn't that deficit persisted for years ?
It's strange that gold is 30% above the 2011-12 peak but silver is still 30% below. Maybe solid state and solar and EVs are gamechangers for silver...but if they were definitively, you'd think some SWFs, institutions, or HFs would be plugging the metal and/or buying shares of miners or the metal itself, right ?
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I'm not surprised that shareholders of the FED don't want to mention that.
Most of the "banking sector" is not members/owners of the Federal Reserve corporation.
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True, but they are stockholders of other Federal/State GSEs.
And today is Exhibit 1 in why you want to buy the metal, not the miners:
Newmont Mining (NEM) is down 14% on a bad earnings miss....higher costs...lower revenues. The stock is basically at the same level when gold was $2,000 or $1000 or $450 an ounce.
This is another reason why I am bullish on the gold price; the supply is highly inelastic to prices. If the miners are run to maximize shareholder value, that's a plus.
Maybe Goldminers has some thoughts.
My thoughts are Newmont upper management need to be fired, and the BOD is not doing their job.
IMO, they keep wasting money and stock buying worn-out companies and deposits for massively higher stock or cash prices than any rational, net present value, time value of money calculation should justify. There used to be some mining engineers who would tell them they are wrong once in a while and not to buy everything. Apparently now it is MBA types, who do not understand mining and are too far from the actual work at the sites to see how things really are. All they want to do is make deals. Pathetic really.
To get Newcrest, Newmont issued 357,691,627 new shares of Newmont common stock, including 15,720,585 New Newmont Shares, 341,792,611 shares underlying New Newmont CDIs and 178,431 shares underlying New Newmont PDIs. Massive share dilution.
And this...all-in sustaining costs to $1,611 per ounce, well above the forecasted $1,374. Seems like they need to talk to some analysts ahead of time, so they don't miss so badly, which the market really hates. Capital expenditures, net of capital accruals, soared to $877 million in the quarter from $604 million a year ago.
They are buying to keep up with their upper management egos to be the biggest and are not putting enough effort into drilling in the land they already own, and focusing more on margin, instead of total sales and marginal reserves.
I sold most of my Newmont a while back and am glad I did. Sold the last of it yesterday after hours. They dragged Barrick and GDX down too, but those may recover some from here.
Edited to say maybe at $49.2 it is low enough to buy again for those like me who are gluttons for punishment. Maybe their stock buyback program will start here. The executive pay in the form of stock options are in need of management support
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Great post, GM.
These clowns are where the E&P/shale operators were in the early-2010's....they need to get religion. For oil, it was negative oil prices and a 50% lower oil price for a few years that got them to do something different.
Sure hope we don't need to see that for gold miners and the PM miners !
I suspect that the stock market is getting ready for a significant drop, taking gold and silver along with it temporarily. The Fed will then step in and inflate like crazy with huge amounts of imaginary money created out of thin air, and then the precious metals will make a monumental move up while the dollar crashes hard.
You heard it here first.
I knew it would happen.
With all due respect we've been hearing the same thing from you and @Derryb since 2006. That's almost 20 years now. Got a time frame? THKS!
Scotia Bank weighted in on the lousy NEM results. Thought some of you might want to see this. Unfortunately, I can't attach the actual PDF so here's a JPEG screenshot:
I suspect that the stock market is getting ready for a significant drop, taking gold and silver along with it temporarily. The Fed will then step in and inflate like crazy with huge amounts of imaginary money created out of thin air, and then the precious metals will make a monumental move up while the dollar crashes hard.
You heard it here first.
With all due respect we've been hearing the same thing from you and @Derryb since 2006. That's almost 20 years now. Got a time frame? THKS!
Um, you haven't been posting here that long. But if you had, you would know that is exactly what happened in 2008 during the housing market bubble's burst.
Only this time, it's a much MUCH larger bubble. Here's a brain teaser for you - if everything as so rosy as you say, why is gold making new all-time highs? If the BRICS and other central banks aren't causing gold's historic price increases by dumping dollars, why is it happening?
Timeframe? Well, it could be any day now. Normalcy bias is not your friend, and that's all derryb and I are pointing out. Uncle Sam and the Fed are putting out bogus numbers on the economy all the time, and even Goldfinger is saying that the banks aren't doing so hot. Not only are the banks not doing so well, there are 150-200 of them on a watch list that you and I don't get to see. Liquidity is drying up, the reverse repo fund is almost used up, and market rates are moving up, in spite of the recent 50 basis rate cut.
If you really think that the debt bubble is only about "a bunch of made up "digits" that means absolutely nothing", then try not paying your mortgage loan or your car loan and see what happens. You won't be getting another loan any time soon. Debt has consequences, even for the government. Bill Holter talks about the effects of a credit freeze. You may want to contemplate that as well.
Creating more imaginary dollars won't cut it this time. The only way to begin restoring faith in the dollar and in our debt market is to stop government spending, which ain't gonna happen. It's only going exponential. Oh, there's going to be a great reset, and nobody except the bankers and politicians and Klaus Schwab will be happy about it.
Maybe even gold or crypto won't help much. We shall see. Ask me that question in about 12 months. I could say that a crash is imminent within 6 months, but it would only be my best guess.
I knew it would happen.
I was absolutely reading these boards back in 2006.
Gold is simply adjusting with inflation just as it always does. Sure, there are a few geopolitical events probably contributing to the recent rise; Iran/Israel, Ukraine, wannabe dictators trying to divide and conquer etc.
I'm an individual not a government. My net worth has increased 104x since 2008. I use credit cards that are paid in full every month, don't do loans other than the mortgage which was officially paid in full on 10/17/24. Debt means nothing to me as I officially have 0.
As for the gooberment they can continue to print as much paper as they choose and when they decide they want to wipe out the debt they will do so with a simple keystroke on the computer.
My prediction, 12 months from now the net worth will still be BOOMIN and you will still be sitting in the bunker calling for the end of the world. RGDS!
When it crumbles it will reveal itself as a house of cards to those who refuse to weigh the evidence. Til then we agree to disagree respectfully.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
The market disagrees with you -- and that is ALL that matters.
Yes, there are problems here and there -- there are ALWAYS those problems. But the housing bubble was clear because you had clear speculation excesses there with people buying and flipping houses with Nothing Down.
We already had the Fed take up rates at a historic pace and to a historic level from ZIRP -- and markets have adjusted domestically and globally.
If you really believed what you post here, you would have an investment fund or strategy clearly outlined that invested in the items you believe in. Then we could actually see what you did with money entrusted to you and other perma-bears always waiting for another collapse.
Why don't you tell us when this will happen...give us a time frame ?
Tell us what happens in the U.S. to our financial markets and to other countries, too.
Talk is cheap, Derry. Give us specifics or don't post. Really. It gets tiring.
Bill Holter and Klaus Schwab are nobodies (though Schwab was involved with the WEF, a globalist NGO). They don't manage any serious money...they just post BS in cyberspace and don't have any track record to speak of.
And what makes you so sure I don't? LOL
You mentioned "another" collapse. So you also see it unfolding, but scorn me for bringing attention to the signs it is on the horizon? LOL.
I invite you to share your personal investments/financials. Last time I responded by doing so I was called a liar and had to protect my name with screen shots of the proof. Nope, won't go down that road again.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
It's underway. Check the current cost of your comfort.
World financial markets will crash as the disease spreads.
Everything I link you to is specifics. Apparently you listen when I talk. If it disturbs you don't listen. It's easy to block me.
I'm happy with my track record.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
How many "collapses" has the US already endured?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
My net worth has increased 104x since 2008.
If this is really true, you have $10,000 for every $100 that you had in 2008. I suppose it's possible, but I'm skeptical.
Debt means nothing to me as I officially have 0. Good for you!
As for the gooberment they can continue to print as much paper as they choose and when they decide they want to wipe out the debt they will do so with a simple keystroke on the computer.
What do YOU think will happen when the gooberment wipes out the debt with a simple keystroke on a computer? I'd like to know your perspective. Will it just be certain types of debt? Why do you think you will be unaffected?
I knew it would happen.
How many "collapses" has the US already endured?
There have been at least 2. Continental currency, FDR's executive order, and maybe JP Morgan's bailout of the gov't in 1896 but I would need to study the specifics.
You can also include the 2008 TARP bailout of the banking system and their friends.
I knew it would happen.
Bill Holter and Klaus Schwab are nobodies (though Schwab was involved with the WEF, a globalist NGO). They don't manage any serious money...they just post BS in cyberspace and don't have any track record to speak of.
First, you probably don't even know who Bill Holter is.
Secondly, if you don't think that Schwab carries a ton of influence with a whole slew of world leaders and the policies that they enact, you are completely out of it.
I knew it would happen.
I would also include the collapse of the paper money being held by people living in the southern states in 1865.
When I started collecting coins in the 1960's, 35 paper dollars could buy an ounce of gold. Today, it takes 2,750 paper dollars to buy that same ounce of gold. Our paper money is going through a slow-motion collapse.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
So all these collapses and yet here we are, discussing another potential collapse.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Yes, you were at least somewhat paying attention during math class. Had I not dabbled in the gutter I'd probably be somewhat closer to $15,000 for every $100. RGDS!
I think it's hard to dispute that the current level of government deficit spending and central bank money printing is accelerating and unsustainable. The real issue is how long can this go on? I easily could have made this statement 20 years ago, yet the world and the US dollar continue. Things are changing. Global crypto currencies and BRICs are going to change the dynamics considerably. I'm still not sure doom is imminent, but governments can only print and spend so much.
Congrats, and again, can you tell me what RGDS means that you put at the end of lots of your posts? Asking for a friend.
The abbreviation RGDS stands for “Regards” and is commonly used in emails and online messages as a way to send well wishes or express friendly sentiments. It is similar to saying “best wishes” or “take care.” People often use RGDS when communicating with friends, acquaintances, or colleagues.
Some other examples include HAND (Have a Nice Day), HAGD (Have a Great Day), BB (Bye Bye), TC (Take Care), at least it is not XOXO (Hugs and Kisses).
LOL
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Thanks, I wasn't sure if it was an acronym, saving 3 letters didn't make sense, and I couldn't figure out the context. I am getting too old for the internet.
Yes, you were at least somewhat paying attention during math class. Had I not dabbled in the gutter I'd probably be somewhat closer to $15,000 for every $100. RGDS!
Lol, so am I to assume that in 2008 you had about $200 to your name. Congrats on digging out of a hole!
I knew it would happen.
The declining dollars in your bank account would beg to differ.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
You would have assumed wrong. No surprise. RGDS!
I have no Secret Sauce: depending on one's age, income and net worth...I recommend a balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds. 60/40 give-or-take depending on risk tolerance.
Nobody is asking you to reveal confidential information. I'll settle for a sample portfolio.
at the moment: 15% equities, 15% real estate, 20% metal, 50% cash. No debt.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey