Tough call, WWYD?

keepdachange

I bought the 1oz 2008 Buff's as well as all the fractoinals from the mint when they came out that year. I had all of them graded and now have a complete set of PCGS PR70DCAM. I see this auction currently running here and can not help but thinking that I could convert this 1.85 ounces of gold into 10 ounces of gold. I would be interested in hearing what others here might do. I keep leaning towards keeping them but it sure is tempting.

guitarwes

I would do it in a heartbeat.

Robb

<< <i>I would do it in a heartbeat. >>



Ditto.

Weiss

You're asking on a metals forum. But I'd do it, too. Especially if you bought them primarily as gold rather than numismatics.

You might consider converting them to less rare buffalos?

DrBuster

Tough indeed, thinking that the fractionals will go up further down the road, but a 5X gain/swap would probably have me pulling the trigger.

OPA

<< <i>I bought the 1oz 2008 Buff's as well as all the fractoinals from the mint when they came out that year. I had all of them graded and now have a complete set of PCGS PR70DCAM. I see this auction currently running here and can not help but thinking that I could convert this 1.85 ounces of gold into 10 ounces of gold. I would be interested in hearing what others here might do. I keep leaning towards keeping them but it sure is tempting. >>



Do your coins have a F/S designation? If so, I would not do it. The set for sale on eBay will probably sell in the $15k+ range. Non F/S sets are selling for about $10k, and anyone foolish enough to trade for 10 oz of Gold ... well, don't look a gift horse in the mouth.

pragmaticgoat

I've always done well selling items that people were going crazy for. Dot.com stocks in 1999, both my houses in 2006, shooting and reloading supplies in 2009; my timing was never exact, but I'm still happy with the results.

gsa1fan

10oz of Au for 1.85oz Au.. I'd have to sell

jmski52

I'm going to go against the grain here. I'd base my decision on how much gold you currently own and what the rest of your asset profile looks like. Granted, your set of Proof Gold Buffs is carrying a very nice premium and that premium could disintegrate as many premiums tend to do. That's only one side of the equation.

Question - do you like the set, and can the rest of your holdings support your ownership of a luxury item? If you think that you'll need access to the money sometime in the next 5 years, it might be a good time to sell. On the other hand, if you think that they are killer coins, if you enjoy them and can afford most personal contingencies with a safe margin of error, and if you think that the set will continue to rise along with the price of gold - then there is no hurry to sell.

You can always sell a nice set like this, the question is whether you feel compelled to maximize the return on every single coin that you sell. No matter what happens this set will always be desirable - the market has already established that fact. Even if the collector premium drops off, this set is still going to command a healthy premium, for the simple fact that not many of them can be had. You can ALWAYS sell it. That's a simple reality that you should let sink in.

I see no reason to be in a hurry to sell although I can share this experience - I stuck my toe in the water and offered to sell one of each (raw) set a couple months ago on BST. Nobody bit on my offering prices (which were comparable to ebay selling prices at the time) for either set and now they are both another $500 to $1,000 higher. It was a test. My feeling is that it won't be hard to sell if you decide to sell even at the current market prices.

A little comment about having such a highly-graded set. If you do sell it, you should by all means sell it in an auction format with a reserve price.

A word to the wise -if you decide to approach a dealer who specializes in high-end modern bullion and he isn't willing to make you a real offer or to give you estimates on the worth of the set, but keeps asking "how much do you want for it," I would move on to another dealer who is willing to work with you in sharing information. I had that experience a few months ago on a full set of 2008-W MS-70 FS AGEs, and I got an uneasy feeling during that whole process. If a dealer tells you that he has a bonafide buyer waiting in the wings for your set and won't make you a firm offer that you can compare to a similar offer from another dealer, then you are being set up. In that situation run, do not walk. I hate trying to work with someone who apparently wants to make a rip by keeping the information to themselves and then to use it to his trading partner's disadvantage instead of developing a continuing relationship. Making a profit in order to stay in business is one thing, ripping your potential customer base is quite a different thing.

Do your homework and believe in your own information, because although there are some good dealers out there, the truth is that nobody in the coin business has your best interests in mind. You have to watch out for yourself. Just one man's opinion.

Good Luck.

CaptHenway

A profit is not without honor......

TD

cohodk

<< <i>I would do it in a heartbeat. >>



I wouldnt even wait that long.

FistFullOfDollars

I to bought my set from the mint and every week I ask myself the same question and every week my answer is no. I am sure one day I will sale the set but I doubt it will be anytime soon. I bought the set for the bullion but I now hold it as a collectors asset.

United States Mint Sales Totals for American Buffalo Coins

jmski52

wouldnt even wait that long.

cohodk, you're always in a rush!

One thing I should add................

In business school, so very long ago............portfolio theory says to diversify your assets into groups of assets that low correlations. I also read once that you never make much money by being diversified, you reduce the volatility and risk of your portfolio but might not make any money as a result.

You might think of this type of asset as a diversification within a class of assets (namely, precious metals). It will fluctuate in a different way than the generic bullion, but it will still move in the same directions generally. Still, it will provide some diversification by rising more in some cases and by falling less in some cases than the rest of your bullion holdings. Chew on that awhile.

A profit is not without honor......

TD

Captn, you are so right. You have to make a profit or the business disappears, that's the reality. The best businesses work to serve their customers and to develop longterm relationships that <ultimately> benefit both. As a customer off the street, if I insist on denying any profit to my suppliers, I <ultimately> lose.

Weiss

1997 Botanical garden nickel set
1998 matte finish kennedy half
1999 silver proof set w/state quarters
2005 high & low leaf WI quarters
2006 ASE reverse proof set

Just a few examples of modern mint rarities. All rocketed to values many, many times their issue price. And each has dropped dramatically since their respective bubbles burst.

At their height, what were the 3-piece reverse proof gold eagle sets selling for? Seems something like $10,000. I see a PCGS 70 reverse proof failed to sell for less than $4k recently.

The 3-piece silver eagle sets were as high as $1700 or more. A PCGS 70 reverse proof just closed at $750. Add the others two and you might hit $900.

How many 100s of percent profit do you need to feel successful? How many more 100s of percent do you suspect they'll rise before the bubble bursts?

MilesWaits

You are a brave man to ask!!

You have gotten many good responses, some very thoughtful and detailed.

FS coins have typically dropped after reaching their prospective heights; yet, I believe the question you are asking is: "Is it time?"

Well, how much do you want to keep this coins for the sake of having a very rare set of Buffaloes? How much would they drop before you felt guilty for keeping them?

Do you have other 2008-W Buffaloes to replace the FS PCGS set and if not, would you want to buy some graded one's back to fill the void?

Finally, if the aim is to have the most Gold for your money, can you afford to keep the set?

Miles

clouisejewelers

I recently sold my small collection of 2008 W buffalo proof fractionals and used the proceeds to buy generic 1 oz. gold eagles. Time will tell if it was the right move. Ask yourself this question, would YOU pay the very high current prices for these buffalo coins? I would not and think the values have gone up way to fast.

ProofCollection

I say it depends on how much other gold you have. If you already have 50oz or so, I would keep it. Otherwise I would convert and build your stockpile.

slantycouch

<< <i>I would do it in a heartbeat. >>



Bing!

Good point Weiss made saying you're asking this question on a metals forum. Answer might be different on the coins side.

mkman123

in a SHTF scenario, that 1.85 oz of gold would only get you 1.85 oz of gold's worth of food, supplies, etc. The numismatic value will be gone. DO IT.

rpw

Ask yourself this question, would YOU pay the very high current prices for these buffalo coins? I would not and think the values have gone up way to fast.

Well stated. I concur.

OPA

Food for thought .... Inevitably, when it comes to forecasting, 90% of all "crystal ball's" give false or incorrect readings. The other 10%, with correct readings, are enjoying Costa Rica or some Tropical Island.

DrBuster

Another thing to consider:

If values fall a bit from that 15k (or whatever), do you mentalize that as a loss of money/value?

Loss mentality should make you sell with absolutely 0 regrets.

illini420

Well don't forget, when you sell for that big gain you'll need to report it and pay income taxes on it. So depending on your tax bracket and state rates, you might not end up with 10 oz.

bestmr

I'd trade it for a bunch of silver and palladium.

gecko109

Do I REALLY have to tell ya what I'd do?

PerryHall

This is an I.Q. test if I ever saw one.

jmski52

depending on your tax bracket and state rates, you might not end up with 10 oz

yep

derryb

Convert to more gold and some silver. That's what I did with over 100 2008W gold buffs and eagles I bought from the mint and had graded. My only regret was selling before their current peak. If you think they still have a way to go (I don't, but I was wrong before) then hold them. Personally, I'd cash in for more gold. It is quite possible that even if the buffalo price doesn't settle down and gold takes off you will only be able to buy six or seven ounces later. Take it while the gitten's good. Good ain't as good as better but it's better than worse.

keepdachange

Thanks for all of the responses! I originally bought them because I really liked the look of them and still do. I also have the 06,07,and 09 in PR70 in my registry set. I would not feel as if I took a loss unless they went below issue price since that is what I paid for them. I have nice stack of silver and a modest one of gold, and financially would not need the money for a very long time (fingers crossed). I sold all of my graded Morgans and converted that into PM's so the Buff's are the only "numismatic" pieces I have. Glad it started a good discussion and I will just hold them and see what happens. I already knew my answer but was curious as to what others might do. Oh and they are not the "First Strike" designation like the ones in the auction.

joz350

Good read.
As for trading the Buffs for 10 OZ of gold is that considered profit and taxed?

illini420

<< <i>Good read.
As for trading the Buffs for 10 OZ of gold is that considered profit and taxed? >>



Generally you are taxed on any sale or "exchange"

Konahead

sell sssssssssssseeeeeeeeeeeeellllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll!

DrBuster

<< <i>

<< <i>Good read.
As for trading the Buffs for 10 OZ of gold is that considered profit and taxed? >>



Generally you are taxed on any sale or "exchange" >>



No tax on bullion or coins sales in GA..

Weiss

Might not be any sales tax when you buy, but you probably need to report gains on your federal taxes. Check with your accountant.

DrBuster

Only if you put it in the bank.

guitarwes

<< <i>Only if you put it in the bank. >>



Cash in the safe looks good.

DrBuster

<< <i>

<< <i>Only if you put it in the bank. >>



Cash in the safe looks good. >>



This is how to roll....

jmski52

This thread has been bothering me for a few days now. I don't think that cashing in a set of Gold Buffs for gold bullion is a bad move. I don't think that holding onto the Gold Buffs is a bad move either. I don't know that you would net out 10 ounces in the exchange either, so the trade-off is indeed tough to call.

DrBuster

Honestly....I think 10 is very doable, if not under by 3 on a collector trade.

OPA

The FS label must be loosing it's touch. Set sold for only $13,500