So what does this tell you about different TPG's and beans?

saintguru · July 5, 2009 11:28PM

$20 1924 MS67

Previous Prices from Heritage Auctions
Lot Date Grade Service Realized
Auction 1121, Lot 4186 Sunday, January 11, 2009 67 PCGS $11,500.00 CAC
Auction 1114, Lot 2111 Sunday, August 3, 2008 67 PCGS $13,225.00 CAC
Auction 1121, Lot 5908 Sunday, January 11, 2009 67 NGC $7,762.50
Auction 454, Lot 3382 Saturday, January 12, 2008 67 PCGS $10,637.50
Auction 454, Lot 5106 Saturday, January 12, 2008 67 NGC $8,050.00

Looks like PCGS and especially PCGS/CAC coins are certainly getting the prices!

Billet7 · July 6, 2009 12:11AM

True...but I wonder what the coins look like in hand. I would imagine the CAC coins actually ARE nicer...thus the premium, not necessarily because of the bean but because of the coin. It really is difficult to evaluate if coins with a bean sell for more than without one since the comparisons are usually different coins. Someone should sell a coin at auction with a bean, have the new owner remove the bean, then resale it at the same auction and see what happens...it would be intersesting. You would run into a problem since the first buyer would skew the test results just by bidding on the item...but perhaps you would get an idea. The other problem is that the same coin would show up at auction twice in a short period of time...which usually lowers the level of interest of prospective buyers.

pennyannie · July 6, 2009 12:15AM

It tells me 2 bidders wanted a nice coin, without the bean maybe 3 bidders would have driven it higher thinking they could upgrade. The bean kills the upgrade potential.

Nah, beans are good. Collectors with no skill can now buy without worry.

Steve27 · July 6, 2009 12:26AM

All I see is a sample size which is too small to draw any meaningful information.

BECOKA · July 6, 2009 12:29AM

I'm with everyone else, until you can show us that one of the lower priced coins was as nice or nicer in hand than the CAC coins this does not say much.

TwoSides2aCoin · July 6, 2009 12:33AM

This tells me that PCGS graded coins may have a higher margin of profit. You taught me a lot, JB. And JA is teaching the world a thing or two, too.
As for the sticker... it's my opinion that it would serve the proprietors better if it were placed on the rear of the slab. Just a humble opinion.

BAJJERFAN · July 6, 2009 12:38AM

<< It tells me 2 bidders wanted a nice coin, without the bean maybe 3 bidders would have driven it higher thinking they could upgrade. The bean kills the upgrade potential.

Nah, beans are good. Collectors with no skill can now buy without worry. >>

Or a lot less worry.

Doogy · July 6, 2009 12:40AM

if they are all "solid for the grade", as CAC is proposing by awarding the bean, your sample only shows that there are still far too many buying the plastic and not the coin. The lemming effect is about the only thing it shows here, without seeing pictures of each of the coins.

PQMorgans · July 6, 2009 1:02AM

search ebay for the top 3 TPG and add CAC. That will give you idea.

19Lyds · July 6, 2009 1:03AM

It doesn't tell me a damned thing other than folks are willing to pay extra money for that stupid sticker.

Its either an MS67 or it ain't and you either need it and want it or you don't.

BillJones · July 6, 2009 1:04AM

Unless you can see the coin in person, this price comparison does not mean a thing.

seanq · July 6, 2009 1:06AM

It tells me there's been about a 20% downward adjustment in prices from last August to this January, and that prices for a given grade at a given service can vary by 5-10%.

Sean Reynolds

Unknown · July 6, 2009 1:57AM

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saintguru · July 6, 2009 2:09AM

Thank you all for your astute analysis'.

I'll be sure to post more pie in the sky data for you.

roadrunner · July 6, 2009 2:11AM

It tells me 2 bidders wanted a nice coin, without the bean maybe 3 bidders would have driven it higher thinking they could upgrade. The bean kills the upgrade potential

Very few people are thinking MS68 upgrades when it comes to saints. The majority of saints in 67 holders would probably came back as 66 next time around. It might take multiple times to reholder them as 67's. And anything in $20 gold submitted in the holder probably has a near zero chance of upgrading to 68 these days. And the fact that a coin has a bean says nothing about upgrade potential other than the coin is not an outright misgrade. CAC would not put a gold bean on a 67 saint unless the coin was at least a 68.4 in their opinion. Yet many submitters have routinely tried pq upper end 67's (67.6 to 67.9) for that very elusive 68 grade. Hence a green sticker on one of those would probably tell me the coin has a better chance of upgrading to 68 than one that does not. CAC is certifying very few 67 saints. Most don't meet their standards.

The prices tell me that gold is still hot, especially nice PCGS-CAC material. Those prices for PCGS-CAC are probably higher than what those coins would have fetched last year or this past February at $1007 gold. The beanless NGC coin has been bringing that same price since fall of 2007. But the PCGS non-CAC coin at $10,000+ is very strong imo. Someone must have felt it was of "bean" quality.

The problem with 65 to 67 saints is that too large a % of them if resubmitted raw would have a hard time getting back into the same grade holder. CAC has brought this out to light. Heck, if I'm going to spend $1950 for a MS65 saint (that probably really isn't MS65), I'll
hand over another $50-$100 to get a solid one certified by CAC. The same goes for most MS65-66 gold. There is currently a shortage for solid for the grade higher end gold with dealers having many orders to fill. I would imagine that MS67 CAC saints are probably in that same boat. Go try to find some at $100-$500 above greysheet bid.

roadrunner

saintguru · July 6, 2009 2:31AM

I see a slight misperception or overstatement about CAC being an upgrade indicator.

It's not. It's another validation by one of the best pair of eyes in the business that a coin hasn't been puttied or messed with and is also a response to the many cries of "gradeflation" over the last few years.

I know no one really cares but the data (plus my experience) tells me that PCGS will almost always bring more than NGC in Sants and that a CAC coin will certainly bring more than a non-CAC one. A year ago CAC MS67's were bringing 13K while non stickered ones were selling for $9-10K.

messydesk · July 6, 2009 2:32AM

It tells me that for the same price, PCGS+CAC coins are a better buy than NGC coins of the same grade, but also that someone who looks at coins carefully is more likely to find better values in NGC holders than in PCGS+CAC holders.

Of those five, lot 5908 I thought was the ugliest. It was the only one with a scrape across the capitol building. The picture of lot 5106 was too blown out to tell how the luster looked, or how severe the chatter in the right obverse field really is. If CAC liked that coin, would it be valued the same as the PCGS+CAC coins at auction? If CAC liked it and it crossed as a PCGS 67, would they still like it?

saintguru · July 6, 2009 2:37AM

I am certain they would. I believe that of all coins stickered GC accounts for 40%. There's not the bias that many think.

DHeath · July 6, 2009 2:49AM

Investors fear the asset so much that two expert opinions are required to assure other investors?

shorecoll · July 6, 2009 3:04AM

Since joining the board I am more afraid of the big price jumps between grades, and I believe this is well founded. I don't think I'm a kool-aid drinker and still have lots of raw coins. I see a lot more NGC commems that I think are 1/2 a grade too high than I do with PCGS, so an NGC with a bean I'm more willing to pay equal money for. BTW I don't think either service is consistent in grading things like Sesquis, BTWs and WCs.

P.S. I'm a copper and bust half guy and have no business collecting commems anyway

Bochiman · July 6, 2009 3:07AM

<< It tells me that for the same price, PCGS+CAC coins are a better buy than NGC coins of the same grade, but also that someone who looks at coins carefully is more likely to find better values in NGC holders than in PCGS+CAC holders.

Of those five, lot 5908 I thought was the ugliest. It was the only one with a scrape across the capitol building. The picture of lot 5106 was too blown out to tell how the luster looked, or how severe the chatter in the right obverse field really is. If CAC liked that coin, would it be valued the same as the PCGS+CAC coins at auction? If CAC liked it and it crossed as a PCGS 67, would they still like it? >>

John, thanks for the post.
Having the thoughts on the coins from someone who ACTUALLY SAW them, and didn't just post numbers, is helpful.
Sounds like the lower priced ones had a reason to be lower.....by anyone who actually saw the coins and was bidding on the coin itself versus a holder.

CalGold · July 6, 2009 3:10AM

In an informed and efficient market where plastic and stickers have no positive or negative effect on prices, and if market conditions were static throughout the time period covered, and if the auctions venues and attendance by interested bidders were equal, the data should mean that (A) the nicest coins brought the highest prices, and (B) of this small sampling, the nicest coins were in PCGS holders, some with CAC stickers.

In the real world, an NGC holder has a negative effect on pricing due to the fact or perception that NGC MS67 coins that would grade MS67 at PCGS have been crossed, and those that remain in an NGC holder have been tried unsuccessfully or do not have a sufficient chance to cross to warrant trying.

To determine the value added by a CAC sticker you would need a larger sampling of contemporaneous sales of PCGS CAC coins and non-CAC coins of the same grade, and better, a sampling of data on a sale of the same coins before and after receiving a CAC sticker. One might, over time derive information concerning whether the presence of a CAC sticker increases the number of bids or makes it easier for dealers to sell stickered coins compared to non-stickered coins of ostensibly the same quality.

CG

tahoe98 · July 6, 2009 3:10AM

<< It doesn't tell me a damned thing other than folks are willing to pay extra money for that stupid sticker.

Its either an MS67 or it ain't and you either need it and want it or you don't. >>

........AMEN!

dragon · July 6, 2009 3:11AM

I feel even that relatively small sampling is meaningful, however it would be interesting to know if the prices realized on the non-CAC'd coins were ever tried at CAC and rejected. In any case, I do believe that CAC gold does consistently bring stronger prices and with good reason.

DHeath · July 6, 2009 3:14AM

When the money gets serious, it is only logical to get as much assurance as possible. I find it fascinating collectors will still invest in something they're that afraid of.

saintguru · July 6, 2009 3:17AM

<< 

John, thanks for the post.
Having the thoughts on the coins from someone who ACTUALLY SAW them, and didn't just post numbers, is helpful.
Sounds like the lower priced ones had a reason to be lower.....by anyone who actually saw the coins and was bidding on the coin itself versus a holder. >>

FYI, I saw them ALL in hand. So zip your pie hole before you put your foot in it again.

Robb · July 6, 2009 3:21AM

Why do those who know it all bother to solicit opinions?

dragon · July 6, 2009 3:24AM

<< It doesn't tell me a damned thing other than folks are willing to pay extra money for that stupid sticker.

Its either an MS67 or it ain't and you either need it and want it or you don't. >>

I believe that comment is both untrue and also quite naive, especially at the MS67 grade level. For those who think that an MS67 saint is an MS67 saint, or an MS67 morgan is an MS67 morgan and they're pretty much all the same, or that CAC'd coins at the MS67 level are no different then you would be well advised to make all your purchases sight unseen from Teletrade and Ebay.

MikeInFL · July 6, 2009 3:33AM

While it would be easy to jump to conclusions with the data provided by Saintguru, I would like to see the coins in question and/or more data points before drawing any conclusions.

saintguru · July 6, 2009 3:39AM

<< Why do those who know it all bother to solicit opinions? >>

Great post!! Because it's a Socratic method of "teaching". You flunk.

lcoopie · July 6, 2009 3:40AM

it may tell you,

that if you have a 67
that you want to sell,
cross it and try to get it stickered.

if you don't think it will cross,
or if it didn't cross,
leave it in it's holder,
that's better than
crossing and downgrading.

if it's already in a pcgs holder,
leave it and try for a sticker.

PerryHall · July 6, 2009 4:07AM

<< It doesn't tell me a damned thing other than folks are willing to pay extra money for that stupid sticker. >>

tradedollarnut · July 6, 2009 4:23AM

<< 

<< It doesn't tell me a damned thing other than folks are willing to pay extra money for that stupid sticker. >>

>>

And yet if that's the only conclusion that can be drawn, it still says it all doesn't it?

MikeInFL · July 6, 2009 4:25AM

<< It doesn't tell me a damned thing other than folks are willing to pay extra money for that stupid sticker.

Its either an MS67 or it ain't and you either need it and want it or you don't. >>

So all coins that grade the same are worth the same? I wouldn't expect such an opinion from an experienced numismatist such as yourself.

BillJones · July 6, 2009 4:29AM

<< 

<< 

<< It doesn't tell me a damned thing other than folks are willing to pay extra money for that stupid sticker. >>

>>

And yet if that's the only conclusion that can be drawn, it still says it all doesn't it?

>>

Circle the wagons!

Another CAC attack must be repelled.

tradedollarnut · July 6, 2009 4:35AM

<< 

<< 

<< 

<< It doesn't tell me a damned thing other than folks are willing to pay extra money for that stupid sticker. >>

>>

And yet if that's the only conclusion that can be drawn, it still says it all doesn't it?

>>

Circle the wagons!

Another CAC attack must be repelled. >>

His conclusion wasn't an attack at all - I completely agree with it. "people are willing to pay more for coins with the sticker" = "coins with the sticker are worth more".

CoinJunkie · July 6, 2009 4:37AM

Actually, the data indicates quite a divergence between NGC and PCGS coins, but very little, if anything, about beans.
The highest price was fetched just before the stock market began to crack. I'm not going to dispute that many people
will bid stronger on beaned coins, but the data presented is totally insufficient to say anything meaningful about
average price differential. Besides which, the same coin bought at auction can be sold a year later at auction and
fetch a far different price. There are a lot of variables when looking at realized prices.

MidLifeCrisis · July 6, 2009 4:41AM

I knew this thread would be entertaining...and it didn't disappoint.

saintguru · July 6, 2009 4:49AM

<< A year ago CAC MS67's were bringing 13K while non stickered ones were selling for $9-10K. >>

I believe this is a rather empirical statement. Now how will you tear this one apart? Must be ugly 67's vs. beautiful ones? Yes...it must be because the ugly ones won't CAC. I love this circle.

BillJones · July 6, 2009 5:06AM

That CAC Kool Aid really tastes good, doesn't it?

I think the golden flavor tastes better than the green, but maybe that's just me.

saintguru · July 6, 2009 5:10AM

It's just you.

crypto79 · July 6, 2009 5:12AM

I will find CAC to have arrived when people start almost exclusively making a living off of finding UN-CAC'ed coins and getting them stickered and netting the profit. Our hobby tends to be reactive and talks with whispers to prevent excess profit from spilling out till most has been soaked up by them. People talk about the crack out artists as a whole but there has been a few generations of them now. People think about the rattlers or OGH but it has also taken most of the PQ old ANACS off the market and we are currently in a NGC draw down that nobody really talks about. Everybody knows that most coins bring the best money in PCGS and cross and crack to get them there. Dealers, how many times have customer asked for some type of cross guarantee when buying ANACS or NGC coins? What those results tells me is that as always, value can be had with a good eye in lesser plastic but you are competing with all the other "good eyes" out there and the longer you wait the less quality is left in non-pcgs brand holders which reinforces the stereotype of having lesser coins in their holders. This is not a NGC bash as I find them to be about equal overall but there can be only one prom queen and the hobby has spoken.

Also I am not sure the market for high-end type based off bullion pieces has the market indicators that represent the market as a whole. A NGC MS64 1927s vs a PCGS MS64 1927s might have deeper implications for the overall coin market.

coinmickey · July 6, 2009 5:15AM

So what does this tell you about different TPG's and beans?

It tells me PT Barnum was right...

BillJones · July 6, 2009 5:28AM

I have three CAC approved coins in my collection, and one that I rejected and returned because the piece had a major problem. That coin had a $12,000 + price tag on it so I was not ready to gulp Kool Aid and accept their word on it. It was 1796 half dime, I've collected that series from more than 30 years so I know something about these tiny coins.

Two of my CAC coins are better than average for the grade IMO, and I paid premiums for both. One is an 1860-O half dollar in PCGS MS-64 and the other is an 1836 Gobrecht dollar in PCGS PR-62.

The other is an 1825 quarter eagle in PCGS MS-61. That is run of the mill and not outstanding at all for the grade. But it's a rare type, and I was willing to pay that CAC freight, although not happily.

CAC is and will remain a pain in the butt so far as I'm concerned. It is not perfect, and it is not fool-proof. It's one more pair of eyes with an opinion. And given the cost of risk of shipping coins though the mail for a second grading opinion, I'll pass.

Elcontador · July 6, 2009 6:02AM

<< Unless you can see the coin in person, this price comparison does not mean a thing. >>

Bingo! Or, as the underground comic character, Mr. Natural would put it, "don't mean sheee*t."

1) Many people get stupid at auctions. I don't know how many times two people get on a jihad about wanting a particular coin and tie their minds to their behinds in bidding for it.
2) A disturbing number of people who buy expensive coins don't know how to grade them, nor do they care about this fact.
3) As a corollary to item 2), many people buy the plastic, not the coin.
4) To some degree, price differentials between PC & NGC depend on the grade and series of coin. Anyone even slightly familiar with CBHs knows that there are far more MS 65s in NGC than PCGS holders, and there is a good reason for this. I can't comment on $20 SG coins, because I don't collect them.

dizzyfoxx · July 6, 2009 6:40AM

This tells me get your PCGS coins CAC stickered and it will certainly pay off when it's time to sell. But I already knew that.

saintguru · July 6, 2009 9:22AM

<< I have three CAC approved coins in my collection, and one that I rejected and returned because the piece had a major problem. That coin had a $12,000 + price tag on it so I was not ready to gulp Kool Aid and accept their word on it. It was 1796 half dime, I've collected that series from more than 30 years so I know something about these tiny coins.

Two of my CAC coins are better than average for the grade IMO, and I paid premiums for both. One is an 1860-O half dollar in PCGS MS-64 and the other is an 1836 Gobrecht dollar in PCGS PR-62.

The other is an 1825 quarter eagle in PCGS MS-61. That is run of the mill and not outstanding at all for the grade. But it's a rare type, and I was willing to pay that CAC freight, although not happily.

CAC is and will remain a pain in the butt so far as I'm concerned. It is not perfect, and it is not fool-proof. It's one more pair of eyes with an opinion. And given the cost of risk of shipping coins though the mail for a second grading opinion, I'll pass. >>

Whether you know this or not, CAC will buy back any coin they have stickered at generally excellent prices! This is something that many people don't know or believe. Not wholesale prices.

IGWT · July 6, 2009 10:15AM

-- Whether you know this or not, CAC will buy back any coin they have stickered at generally excellent prices! This is something that many people don't know or believe. Not wholesale prices. --

I was under the impression that CAC (or participating CAC dealers) will buy CAC-stickered coins for which they have placed bids on dealer networks. Are you sure that they have undertaken the obligation to buy any and all CAC-stickered coins that might be offered to them (regardless of whether or not they have placed bids for those coins)?

Edited to add italics for emphasis.

Bochiman · July 6, 2009 11:01AM

<< 

<< 

John, thanks for the post.
Having the thoughts on the coins from someone who ACTUALLY SAW them, and didn't just post numbers, is helpful.
Sounds like the lower priced ones had a reason to be lower.....by anyone who actually saw the coins and was bidding on the coin itself versus a holder. >>

FYI, I saw them ALL in hand. So zip your pie hole before you put your foot in it again.

>>

Then it's too bad you didn't mention that in the original post and make an effort to promote the coin and how they looked rather than just going by a stick and the slab they were in.
Yes, we know you have an agenda to just promote the sticker, particularly after the way you used to bash on it.

Maybe you will come out and speak for JA again

Seems you can't post a thread anymore without talking about how smart you are at picking coins/stickers and you can't post a reply without dinging on people who don't agree with you. You've really lost it over the last few years. There was a time when you didn't bash everything and everyone that didn't agree with you but now, that's all you seem to be doing.
Really sad actually.

BAJJERFAN · July 6, 2009 11:08AM

<< Its either an MS67 or it ain't and you either need it and want it or you don't. >>

If its THAT black and white, why are so many coins misgraded or uncrossable amongst the major TPGs?

pennyannie · July 6, 2009 1:05PM

Beans do not hurt coin sales. The cost of the bean is no big deal compared to the potential rip you can get from clueless bidders.

I used to have 3 coins with beans ( proof v-nickels) i sold them without any hassle. I bought them for no premium as far as i was concerned and sold them the same way.

I would not pay a 3k premiun for a bean. I would rather be the buyer of non beaned coins that i send in to be beaned.

I was pass on beaned coins but will try to sell the coins beaned

So what does this tell you about different TPG's and beans?

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