Monday Market Memories...OK, it's Wednesday
homerunhall
Posts: 2,496 ✭✭✭
Coming in a minute...wait
OK, it's Wednesday...but Monday was Christmas Eve.
Let's talk about bull and bear markets.
Everyone has some bull market stories...how about a few bear market stories. I remember 67/68...74/75...but the worst was 1981-1982.
Coins were incredible during the "Jimmy Carter bull market" of 1976-1980. Many coins went up 1000% or more. in 1976, Pr65 Three Cent Nickels were about $110. I saw a deal change hands in early 1980 at $3000 per coin. I sold Matte proof twenties in 1976 for $8500...and saw them sell at auction in 1980 for over $100,000 per coin.
After such a big run-up in it's logical that the correction would be severe...and the 1981-82 bear market was beyond brutal. There was about a 12 month period when it was almost impossible to get dealers to even look at coins. I remember one month in 1981 when the revenue at my coin company was less than my expenses...that is, not only was my profit margin less than my expenses, my entire revenue for the month was less than expenses...and this was before anyone had heard of dot com business plans!
The was a coin show in early 1982...I think it was the Feb Long Beach show...and the place was a morgue. I was standing next to Bob Leece's table and a retail customer walked up to his table...maybe the only retail customer at the show. He bent over the cases to look at the coins and then he suddenly sneezed. Bobby Leece exclaimed, "Great, the first retail customer of the day and he's allergic to coins."
At the same show I saw a dealer show another dealer a group of very nice coins. The dealer who owned the coins asked the other dealer to look at them and give him an offer. The dealer looked at the coins and then said, "What are you trying to get out of this group?" The dealer who owned the coins said, "I'm trying to get 10% over nothing."
It was brutal...but the market picked up suddenly at the ANA show in Boston in August, 1982. It literally started to get good during the show. I sold a lot of coins at that show and so did everyone else. Prices were cheap, but coins were selling again. In a few months the Eliasberg gold coins were sold at auction in New York by Dave Bowers and it was an incredible sale. Coins started to get hot again...and they stayed hot thru the launch of PCGS in 1986 and thru 1989.
Our market has been hot...really hot...for four or five years. And each year seems to be better than the last year. I feel the market has tremendous momentum and can run another four or five. But eventually, we'll have another bear market.
What are your thoughts?
What are your bear market memories? And which bear markets do you remember???
hrh
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Recipient of the coveted "You Suck" award, April 2009 for cherrypicking a 1833 CBHD LM-5, and April 2022 for a 1835 LM-12, and again in Aug 2012 for picking off a 1952 FS-902.
<< <i>Coming in a minute...wait >>
Got my pajamas on......I'll turn down the lights!!!
PS- you should get a restraining order on laura.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Please explain the TrueView service. Why are some able to aquire images while others are denied the service. What must I do to become one of the elite?
Thanks,
Announcements about new services in the mail soon.
More announcements at the Set Registry luncheon at the FUN show.
Hope to see you there.
hrh
<< <i>Some days you eat the bear, other days the bear eats you.
Thats the 2nd "Big Lebowski" reference i've seen today in this forum.
IF YOU BUY WHAT OTHER PEOPLE LIKE, BORROW TO FUND IT AND EXPECT MULTIPLES OF RETURN, THEN YOU ARE LIKELY TO BE UNHAPPY
BONGO SAY NEARLY EVERYTHING DEPRECIATES OVER TIME.BONGO WOULD NOT PAY $500 FOR A SILVER BELL THIS XMAS AND EXPECT IT TO BE WORTH $550 NEXT YEAR. BUT BONGO KNOW A SILVER BELL IS NOT OLD COIN.
OR IS IT.
BONGO MAYBE NOT SURPRISED THAT OLD COIN IS LIKE ANY OTHER LIMITED NON ESSENTIAL COMMODITY AND SUBJECT TO THE WHIMS OF TASTE AND MARKET.
PUT THE COIN IN BOOK AND ENJOY IT.
IF IT IS WORTH MORE WHEN YOU COME TO SELL IT, WELL DONE
IF NOT, THEN YOU HAVE HAD ENJOYMENT OUT OF IT.
REMEMBER THAT OLD COIN IS ONLY WORTH FEW DOLLARS IN PHYSICAL MATERIAL VALUE - THIS IS WHY VALUE IS AN ESOTERIC CONCEPT IN MANY WAYS AND IT MAY BE VULGAR TO ASSIGN ANY MONETARY VALUE TO OLD COIN
UNLESS YOU ARE A RUSSIAN OLIGARCH OR CHINESE SHODDY GOODS FACTORY OWNER
<< <i>IF YOU BUY WHAT YOU LIKE, AT A PRICE YOU CAN AFFORD AT THE TIME, THEN THINGS WILL BE EASIER
IF YOU BUY WHAT OTHER PEOPLE LIKE, BORROW TO FUND IT AND EXPECT MULTIPLES OF RETURN, THEN YOU ARE LIKELY TO BE UNHAPPY
BONGO SAY NEARLY EVERYTHING DEPRECIATES OVER TIME.BONGO WOULD NOT PAY $500 FOR A SILVER BELL THIS XMAS AND EXPECT IT TO BE WORTH $550 NEXT YEAR. BUT BONGO KNOW A SILVER BELL IS NOT OLD COIN.
OR IS IT.
BONGO MAYBE NOT SURPRISED THAT OLD COIN IS LIKE ANY OTHER LIMITED NON ESSENTIAL COMMODITY AND SUBJECT TO THE WHIMS OF TASTE AND MARKET.
PUT THE COIN IN BOOK AND ENJOY IT.
IF IT IS WORTH MORE WHEN YOU COME TO SELL IT, WELL DONE
IF NOT, THEN YOU HAVE HAD ENJOYMENT OUT OF IT.
REMEMBER THAT OLD COIN IS ONLY WORTH FEW DOLLARS IN PHYSICAL MATERIAL VALUE - THIS IS WHY VALUE IS AN ESOTERIC CONCEPT IN MANY WAYS AND IT MAY BE VULGAR TO ASSIGN ANY MONETARY VALUE TO OLD COIN
UNLESS YOU ARE A RUSSIAN OLIGARCH OR CHINESE SHODDY GOODS FACTORY OWNER >>
Hey Bongo, is your CapsLock Key stuck????
BONGO AWARE OF BIG LETTERS
BONGO HAS MADE HIS DISPLEASURE OF BROKEN KEYBOARD KNOW TO FAMILY AND FRIENDS BUT BONGO'S CHRISTMAS WISH FOR NEW GOES UNANSWERED.
BONGO SORRY AND ASK GROUP FOR PERMISSION TO CONTINUE TYPE BIG LETTERS
<< <i>Announcements about new services in the mail soon.
More announcements at the Set Registry luncheon at the FUN show.
Hope to see you there.
hrh >>
Mr Hall, I have really enjoyed your FUN show luncheon meetings. I learn alot from them and the panel experts and participants. Very entertaining and highly informative. Thank you all for sharing your knowledge and experiences, I am looking forward to this years meeting
The "bullion" connect has been running just about dead even on what I have bought, sold and traded.
I sold some early gold when silver was 7.20 and put the money from the coins in silver.
Subsequently, the coins outran it for a very short time and now seem to be subsiding. But the two have matched EXTREMELY closely. I could easily swap the same silver for the same coins. Ditto the gold I bought but maybe not quite as dramatic.
Age and disinterest of the young has prompted me to sell even more coins.
I'm still adding to the bullion.
I recently traded out a coin for some gold and "offing" the coin was anything but easy.
I know I would not want my wife to have to try moving coins vs. bullion.
I'll guess we're at a peak now or VERY near it. (I think it has passed)
?????????????????
Since that was my only exposure to coins in a major bear market, I can only speak about enduring the stock market crashes of '87 & '01 - in 1987 I saw my 401(k) account lose over 1/3 of it's value in a matter of weeks, but I hung in there and also have learned that the market is like a boy walking up the steps with a yo-yo - there can be dizzying swings, but eventually you end up higher than you started!
Hope you hade a nice holiday, HRH.
every treasure on Earth
to be young at heart?
And as rich as you are,
it's much better by far,
to be young at heart!
Numismatics has always been a luxury, but many were considering the hobby as much more. Many dealers got caught and I was right smack in the middle of it. Coins were really extremely difficult to sell.
I think that the real turn-around came as a function of the Eliasberg sale, but many numismatic items are still less than the speculative prices of 1980.
This has been a lesson that I learned and one which I will share. It is almost never correct to borrow money to spend on your hobby, especially if you really have no idea of where the repayment is going to come from.
I have no idea when the market will get worse or better, for that matter, but I continue to emphasize that numismatics is a luxury and must be treated that way, as far as finances go.
I firmly believe in numismatics as the world's greatest hobby, but recognize that this is a luxury and without collectors, we can all spend/melt our collections/inventories.
eBaystore
At the time, I had what I thought was about 200K in coins, but that included lots of things like slider Standing Quarters that I thought were $1000 gems. ($100 might have been more accurate!) Whatever I really had, it lost half its value by the end of 1980. Fortunately, I never counted my money (or my losses) on the way down. I just kept on playing the game, mostly because I enjoyed it, but probably also because I didn't realize how badly I had done. But that's just the background.
The thing that struck me most about the bear market wasn't how hard it was to make money. In fact, it was just the opposite. There I was at coin shows with 10 or 20 grand in my checking account, and because I was one of the few dummies eager to spend his money, I was able to do a ton of business. If a nice coin became available, I'd stretch and buy it. People would bring me coins, and people would come to see what neat stuff I had bought. And the auctions were the best! I'd figure virtually every lot and buy way more than should have been possible. Cheaply! Not that I was making tons of money, but it was exhilarating and encouraging. And in time, my business grew, I got better at the game, and it became a nice career. (Actually, I'm still not sure I ever really "worked" for a living!)
The lesson, of course, is that bear markets can be lots of fun, especially for newbies. So don't fear the bear. Welcome him with open arms!
Just be sure to keep a supply of jelly donuts...
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Camelot
shhhhhhhhhh....some BONGOBONGO posts on page 1 of this thread for those that missed out on this primate poster.
Is it possible to poof a HRH thread?
UNLESS YOU ARE A RUSSIAN OLIGARCH OR CHINESE SHODDY GOODS FACTORY OWNER
Call me crazy, but I'm beginning to think that BONGOBONGO may not actually be an ape.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
BONGO SORRY AND ASK GROUP FOR PERMISSION TO CONTINUE TYPE BIG LETTERS >>
Permission denied. Try holding down the Shift Key.
<< <i>BONGO SORRY AND ASK GROUP FOR PERMISSION TO CONTINUE TYPE BIG LETTERS >>
Permission denied. Try holding down the Shift Key. >>
Agree. Listening to an ape yell at me is giving me a headache.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Pittsburgh was 1989.
At the 1988 ANA, the revelation of a major counterfeit slab scam seemed to be the cause for a sharp downturn in the generics market, but the market for rare coins kept chugging along.
The market for rare coins did turn south around the 1989 ANA. It came back somewhat until (I'd say) Central States 1990, and then declined slowly until Summer ANA. Things didn't really get bad for rare coins until late 1990. The next few years were definitely bear market territory.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
It made sense that the internet stocks went under. No sales, no cash flow, no earnings. Coins are different. No sales, cash flow or earnings, but today... huge demand, low supply.
<< <i> Don't forget the 1987 Pittsburgh ANA crash, when the anticipated coin mutual fund evaporated.
Pittsburgh was 1989.
Don't have my ladder handy to check. They all kinda blur together after the first thirty conventions......
TD
So my question to all of you old timers is...
For "modern crap," do you think the biggest ROI would come from a set of MS/PR 69's or a set of 70's? Keeping in mind of course, the far lower costs of purchasing a 69 vs. a 70.
Sure, the "rare coin market" may still be strong, with coins selling for $50,000 or over $100,000. But the general collecting public, which typically buys coins in the range of $100 - $1,000 is really weak right now from what I have seen.
Have others seen this also?
So my question to all of you old timers is...
For "modern crap," do you think the biggest ROI would come from a set of MS/PR 69's or a set of 70's? Keeping in mind of course, the far lower costs of purchasing a 69 vs. a 70.
If you were to spend an equal amount of money on the above 2 scenarios, you could in theory buy twice as many 69's vs 70's. If gold were to move to $2000/oz, your 69's would also move in proportion to the move in gold plus some juice. Will the 70's move to $4000/oz plus juice? How many people could afford to buy them?
Right now the coin market seems likes its moving down as evidenced by lower submissions to PCGS but the bullion market is still moving up.
***Right now the coin market seems likes its moving down as evidenced by lower submissions to PCGS but the bullion market is still moving up.***
Lower submissions to PCGS??
Where did you get that information?
Last time I talked to PCGS was 2 weeks ago and was told they were swamped!!
What has changed??? Thank you
<< <i>I was too young to know what the market was like back then, but I think we're destined to have that kind of a market here some time in the next few years. The game is different now, especially with the grading services.
So my question to all of you old timers is...
For "modern crap," do you think the biggest ROI would come from a set of MS/PR 69's or a set of 70's? Keeping in mind of course, the far lower costs of purchasing a 69 vs. a 70.
If you were to spend an equal amount of money on the above 2 scenarios, you could in theory buy twice as many 69's vs 70's. If gold were to move to $2000/oz, your 69's would also move in proportion to the move in gold plus some juice. Will the 70's move to $4000/oz plus juice? How many people could afford to buy them?
Right now the coin market seems likes its moving down as evidenced by lower submissions to PCGS but the bullion market is still moving up. >>
Hey DB, second request on your lower PCGS submissions statement.
I just got off the phone with Diana at PCGS, and she said they were "extremely busy."
Should I believe her????
ps. there are some original BONGOBONGO posts on page one of this thread.....go OPA!!!
<< <i>What are your bear market memories? And which bear markets do you remember??? >>
I have been buying coins since the late 1970's, with some trading and selling along the way. Nobody expected the gold and silver bear market starting in 1980 would last so long (until 2001). Improved mine output and technology, with a strengthening dollar, it can and will happen again. I was working through college with a construction job in 1981, the foreman put most of his savings into 2 pounds of Kruegerands at $600 ounce, listening to the idiot gold bugs predicting $2000 gold.
I was buying lower priced circulated type and early copper in the 1980's, I don't think any of the "collector" coins were affected much by the bear markets, as I remember it was just the high flyers, and the overhyped gem slabs in the late 80's that were not as rare as touted.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
What are your bear market memories? And which bear markets do you remember??? "
....I think it would be far more pertinent to address the issue of fake slabs undermining the TPG`s integrity then to reminisce about 25 years ago....
<< <i>"What are your thoughts?
What are your bear market memories? And which bear markets do you remember??? "
....I think it would be far more pertinent to address the issue of fake slabs undermining the TPG`s integrity then to reminisce about 25 years ago.... >>
What would you have homerunhall change his Monday thread title to?
Just curious.
"Inspiration exists, but it has to find you working" Pablo Picasso
....How about , " PCGS to implement multiple safeguards into new holders"
<< <i>What are your thoughts?
What are your bear market memories? And which bear markets do you remember???
hrh >>
When the babyboomers that are driving this market start to die, then its over. I think in 2012 the largest # hit retirement and will get back into the hobby, a couple of years past that should be the peak.
I have not been a part of previous markets, the rid over the last few years is my first. Aside from collecting generic proof stuff as a kid.
Note: This post is 10 years after the fact....................................... December 26, 2007
OK, I remember HRH's Monday Market Memories, and enjoyed them immensely.
What I don't remember, this perhaps launched that special night of the infamous BongoBongo posts!!!
Any veterans concur? Even our beloved Bear said, "cool thread."
For you newbies, this was a magic night for the U.S. Coin Forum.
Does anyone know what happened to BECOKA? 17k posts in 08? Wow. Great reading Bongo posts.
Think I seen his brother MONGO on American Pickers.
"A dog breaks your heart only one time and that is when they pass on". Unknown
Bongo never returned in his former style...it was rumored he had an alt for a while, but not proved....One of the more memorable 'flash members' the forum has known over the years... Cheers, RickO
It's interesting to read some of these posts. Wow, 2007 was 11 years ago!
****WARNING: OLD THREAD ALERT!****
A little history for the new forum members.
It was great when David Hall would enter the coin forum with his vast numismatic knowledge.
Some actual posts by the infamous Bongo Bongo inside this thread......enjoy going back to 2007.