Are Modern Commemorative Gold Coins a Good Investment?

BillJones

This question appeared in the "Q and A" forum. I wrote an answer and then found out that I'm not allowed to post there. Since I'd already taken the time to write I decided to post the contents here of what I wrote rather than throw it away.

Quoted from the Q & A forum -

Hi all,Today is my first day here.I will give a quick history of my coin collecting addiction.About three years ago I started collecting.I was interested in type coins.As my collection progressed I realized I had amassed a bunch of ugly coins.So I got to the point I only wanted beautiful uncs and proofs.I was within six coins of completing my type set.As I became (picky) I realized I could not afford to keep going.So,I struggled with trying to find what I wanted to collect.To sum it all up I (LOVE) Gold Proof commemoratives......Now........Do You folks think this is a good investment?Presently I think my best set is the 2002 salt lake olympics,I think this has potential because the mintage was less than 9000 pieces....Please respond with some input as to the potential for modern gold commems.thanks...

BillJones

I collect the modern gold commemoratives mostly when they are included in multi-piece sets. A couple of years ago I decided to get as many sets as I could in the cherry word boxes. To date I have them all except the Jackie Robinson set which only had one coin and a patch, a special baseball card and a pin. I also collected the two piece set for the FDR (1997) and George Washington $5 gold coins. I have stayed away from the 4 piece Jackie Robinson set because I think the price for the $5 gold in Unc. has gotten to be too speculative. On paper I’ve made money, but large part that’s been because of the dramatic increase in the price of gold bullion.

I don’t believe in using coins as an investment vehicle. If you want to invest in something, go for stocks, bonds and mutual funds.

Having said that, many gold commemorative coins can be purchased for near their melt value. If you think that gold bullion still has a ways to go, then give it a try.

As for numismatic value, it really depends if a lot more collectors get interested in the modern gold commemoratives. Although some of the mintages look low, they are not really as low as your think. First, virtually all of the original mintages still exist, and the average grade is really high, like MS or PR 68 or better. Second while 5,000 coins might seem low, but classic coin standards, that’s still a lot of survivors. There are many 18th and 19th century coins that have survival rates equal to or lower than that, and the average condition of the population is not nearly as high as MS and PR 68 +.

I gone a bit in circles here, but the bottom line is, buy the gold commemoratives because you enjoy them and let the money making aspect of it take care of itself. Don’t put money you will really need later for retirement or whatever into them. Yes their gold content is a store of value, and that could be a fairly painless way to have some gold in your holdings and enjoy it more than you would a group of U.S. gold eagle coins. BUT don’t count on getting rich from these coins. We will need to have some shifts in collector tastes for that to happen.

nankraut

Since you asked...IMHO No.

flaminio

As far as an "investment", I think there are two types of modern gold commems that are good:

1) Shockingly common ones like the 1986 SOL and 1988 Olympic -- these can occasionally be had for below melt value on eBay. But you're just buying the bullion here.

2) Four or five "keys" -- the Jackie Robinson, Smithsonian, LoC bimetallic, and maybe a couple others.

All the rest -- no dice.

LanLord

Hmmm, interesting post, I'm not sure I agree with you on the J. Robinson unc half eagle though.

This is the lowest mintage half eagle of the modern set, and in numbers, ranks there with some of the

classic gold releases. I don't think it's speculative at all, I think that the people that want to build a modern

set, are in need of one and only 5000 or so will be possible. It is possible with the state quarters and the evolution

of new collectors, that once the either tire of quarters or simply want to expand their horizons, they move on to modern commems.

There may well be more people collecting modern commems than there are Robinson uncs available. To me

I think of the Hawaii classic commem as the same sort of thing. The coin that limits the number of sets that can be built.

BlindedByEgo

Of course they are - but only if you can find a market maker

ER

I dunno about investment, but I love many of the designs on modern gold commems. I just wish they 'd make more of the $10 size coins. As of now, they have what, 2 gold and 1 bimetallic $10.

BillJones

<< <i>Of course they are - but only if you can find a market maker >>



You don't know how right you are with comment. Market makers have created a couple of the booms and busts that have hit the classic commemorative coin market through the years. Too ofter the inexperienced collectors and especially the speculators buy at the top and dump their losses at the bottom.

wondercoin

Bill: Good answer.

Look - let's face it - the 1995(w) Silver Eagle ("bullion" coin?) has a "store of value" of about $13 in silver (30,000+ mintage) and continues to trade higher and higher in PR69DC grade (now closing in on $6,000)!! Why? Simply, because of collector demand IMHO. These Gold Commems with mintages of less than 23,000 (e.g. $5 Gold GW) now often trade at under $300 with close to $150 of pure Gold in them!! Personally, without actively looking for them (or trying to increase my holdings), I buy them up whenever offered to me at wholesale prices. What do I really have to lose as compared to what I could possibly gain IF collector tastes change and these MS Gold Commems become very popular to collect? Heck, I can now buy close to (20) of the GW $5 MS Gold Commems with a sub-23,000 mintage (and nearly $3,000 in melt value) for the price of (1) 1995(w) Silver Eagle with a mintage in excess of 30,000 and a melt value of about $13!! So, for me personally, I like the "upside/downside" risk of buying some of the MS Gold Commems right now, but, understand that I am gambling on collector tastes changing and if that does not happen, I stand to lose a fair amount of money.

Wondercoin

FatMan

I have a complete collection of Modern Silver Commems, and many Modern Gold Commems. I collect them for fun, but the fact is I have seen some very nice gains.

ttown

I used to love the modern Commemoratives for spot gold type investments and you could usually get the Silver dollar thrown in free that would pay for the shipping. They were better than an AGE IMO. My borther in law wants to invest in some Gold or Silver and just like the ASE the secret is out there's no bargin I saw on Ebay like there used to be everyone was bringing over spot by a good margin when you consider these are just under a 1/4 ounce.

If your incline to buy an AGE you may as well buy the Comm's they have much lower mintages. I was buying mine 2 or 3 years back, if you haven't visisted this market lately you better look again like I've done last week.

Higashiyama

Bill - interesting comments. My own collecting meaderings tooks me along a similar path. I had acquired a couple of the 6-pieces sets on issues (Columbus, Madison), and a few years ago decided to complete this set. Beyond this, I haven't specifically gone after the commemorative gold, but do find them an interesting subset.

As several others have pointed out, the ratio of price to melt on these is not terribly high; some are quite attractive, and most commemorate events of historical significance. I wouldn't be shocked to see a pick up in interest in these coins.

ttown

I guess you could always buy MS/PF 69 Eagles and claim there rare instead because most aren't foolish enough to pay the grading fee.

curly

I don't think coins themselves are a good investment. Collect for the enjoyment of it. The future is very uncertain with retirement plans going out the window and Social Security is a pyramid scheme. A young person today needs to use caution when making decisions about their future.

Thats my take on it anyway

CoinMaster1229

Just looking over Mintages and PCGS price guide prices of these Unc. Gold.
............The top 10 Lowest mintages!

Jackie Robinson..5,174 mintage...MS69 Price $2,750
CVC....................6,761...................................$2,300
Star Spangle......7,0XX...................................$445
army...................8,062..................................$445
medal of Honor...8,251..................................$445
smithsonian........9,068..................................$960
Flag Bearer.........9,174..................................$1,725
Cauldron.............9,210..................................$1,700
Stadium..............10,579................................$1,675
5 Star Generals.?????????????????????????

I`m Thinking we should be backing up the truck
and loading up on the MOH,Army,Star Spangle
Banner. Also the 5 star General should not to be over looked!

GritsMan

I agree that these probably aren't a great investment, but some of them are great coins. I love the Smithsonian, the San Francisco Mint, FDR, and several others. Also, compared to collecting a lot of other things, the gold limits the downside potential which is important to me. In other words, I'd rather put $500 into gold coins than into Hot Wheels cars--as much as I love the latter

LindeDad

Hint ....I sold my SSB MS70 First Strike for $1150.00 last year. Then bought another and it made MS70 too just not First Strike.....

Overdate

I've never understood the outsized prices for the three 1995-96 Olympic gold coins in the above list.

Collector interest does not explain these prices IMO (especially since the more attractive proof versions are available at a small premium to melt), and if I were a speculator I would be concentrating on the lower priced and lower mintage coins in that list.

AMRC

Think it is funny that i am seeing (quite by chance I assume) the banner ad for Modern Coin mart on this thread.

CoinMaster1229

I am just thinking that the lower price coins with even lower
mintages will double in value over the next 2-3 years. even if
gold spot price were to drop over the same time frame.

Also anyone looking to buy gold as an investment, would have a
lot less downside risk buying these and other Low mintage Gold
products the US mint has produced in recent years. far less
risky then gold in just some bullion form.

agentjim007

Saw some (5's and 10's) at the Central States show for melt plus $10. That was probably a fair deal.

coolest

<< <i>I've never understood the outsized prices for the three 1995-96 Olympic gold coins in the above list.

Collector interest does not explain these prices IMO (especially since the more attractive proof versions are available at a small premium to melt), and if I were a speculator I would be concentrating on the lower priced and lower mintage coins in that list. >>



I think there was a pricing error in the GreySheet, that once listed it then creates that new value that is very slow to recede, as buyers at the higher price will not sell at a lower price.

ricko

Commemorative's are a hit/miss gambit, aside from the PM content. A few will capture the collector interest (i.e. Jackie Robinson...look for another price jump due to the movie this year). Some are like fireworks, burn brightly for a few months/years and then fade. Overall, not a good investment gamble. Cheers, RickO

derryb

No

s4ny

<< <i>Commemorative's are a hit/miss gambit, aside from the PM content. A few will capture the collector interest (i.e. Jackie Robinson...look for another price jump due to the movie this year). Some are like fireworks, burn brightly for a few months/years and then fade. Overall, not a good investment gamble. Cheers, RickO >>



I recently had 4 MS69 Proof Jackies on Craigslist NY for $400 each and only lowball interest.

The movie didn't help the proofs so I doubt it would help the business strike coins at 4 times the price.

Baley

Are Modern Commemorative Gold Coins a Good Investment?

Compared to what?