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GOLD, SILVER, WORLD NEWS, ECONOMIC PREDICTIONS 2006
GOLDSAINT
Posts: 2,148 ✭
GOLD, SILVER, WORLD NEWS, ECONOMIC PREDICTIONS 2006
Well my friends the year has pass quickly and much has happened.
If it is agreeable to most of you I thought we might end our old Gold, Silver and economic news thread for 2005 and begin a new 2006 thread.
It has been 12 months, and we have had 2240 comments on the 2005 thread, lets see how things shape up in 2006.
If most of you are in agreement please sign in so you will get the notices.
In addition please add your comments of how you think the year went, and any predictions you might have for 2006.
Here are a few stats of how our topics on the Gold market, Silver market, stock market etc. went this past 12 months.
The Dow started at about 10,900 one year ago and closed yesterday at 10,912
The S&P was setting at about 1210 the first part of Dec. 2004 and today is 1264
The Gold market was at $455 per ounce in early Dec. 2004 and today is $504
The Silver market was $7.95 and now is $8.50
I think our discussion on I Bonds was a good one any those should have done well for the year, earning a combined amount of 6% this year.
It looks as if some of the bubble real estate areas are cooling somewhat now, but the remainder of the market still looks stable and the market as a whole increased 10% this past year with new homes increasing 17% across the board.
Interest rates are way up for the year and C.D.’S might finally be keeping up with Government reported inflation.
Most of us seem convinced that the government is lying about the REAL inflation rate, and the Republicans are blowing their once in a lifetime chance to cut the size of government, and overhaul the tax system. It appears without term limits on Congress nothing will now stop the spending train.
The coin market as a whole seemed to do very well, and the rarer material did very very well.
For my predictions for 2006 I will go with these,
Gold will see $550
Silver will see $12
More stagflation, as wages remain steady to down, savings remains low, and the printing press runs.
The Dow will stay in its current trading range or drop as pension funds, and regular folks, move to the safety of bonds or C.D.S
The combined trade, and Federal, deficit will again hit one trillion plus in 2006.
The pension crises will accelerate as more companies try to unload these plans before the boomers head out to pasture.
Interest rates will continue to move up, as foreigners demand higher rates to buy our paper, and the Fed will have to increase the money supply as some of the debt will not rollover, causing more inflation.
The debate on inflation or deflation continues, and even though we will no doubt see more inflation, deflation might be right around the corner if foreign investors stop buying our debt.
Americans will begin to see globalization as a disaster, and begin to call for tariffs, and a return to isolationism.
The coin market will be stable to up for many rarer coins. One of my multi-millionaire friends says there are now 10 Billionaires in the high-end coin market, so expect to see some additional moon money on big time coins. However the biggest percentage gains for average collectors will come from the more common date high end silver coins that move up with silver, Franklins, Walkers, Morgan’s, etc.
The overall market for more common rarer coins in MS 60 to 63 will not move up much, as much of the money for this market will find a home in Jumbo C.D.S or bonds at 4.5% plus.
Well my friends the year has pass quickly and much has happened.
If it is agreeable to most of you I thought we might end our old Gold, Silver and economic news thread for 2005 and begin a new 2006 thread.
It has been 12 months, and we have had 2240 comments on the 2005 thread, lets see how things shape up in 2006.
If most of you are in agreement please sign in so you will get the notices.
In addition please add your comments of how you think the year went, and any predictions you might have for 2006.
Here are a few stats of how our topics on the Gold market, Silver market, stock market etc. went this past 12 months.
The Dow started at about 10,900 one year ago and closed yesterday at 10,912
The S&P was setting at about 1210 the first part of Dec. 2004 and today is 1264
The Gold market was at $455 per ounce in early Dec. 2004 and today is $504
The Silver market was $7.95 and now is $8.50
I think our discussion on I Bonds was a good one any those should have done well for the year, earning a combined amount of 6% this year.
It looks as if some of the bubble real estate areas are cooling somewhat now, but the remainder of the market still looks stable and the market as a whole increased 10% this past year with new homes increasing 17% across the board.
Interest rates are way up for the year and C.D.’S might finally be keeping up with Government reported inflation.
Most of us seem convinced that the government is lying about the REAL inflation rate, and the Republicans are blowing their once in a lifetime chance to cut the size of government, and overhaul the tax system. It appears without term limits on Congress nothing will now stop the spending train.
The coin market as a whole seemed to do very well, and the rarer material did very very well.
For my predictions for 2006 I will go with these,
Gold will see $550
Silver will see $12
More stagflation, as wages remain steady to down, savings remains low, and the printing press runs.
The Dow will stay in its current trading range or drop as pension funds, and regular folks, move to the safety of bonds or C.D.S
The combined trade, and Federal, deficit will again hit one trillion plus in 2006.
The pension crises will accelerate as more companies try to unload these plans before the boomers head out to pasture.
Interest rates will continue to move up, as foreigners demand higher rates to buy our paper, and the Fed will have to increase the money supply as some of the debt will not rollover, causing more inflation.
The debate on inflation or deflation continues, and even though we will no doubt see more inflation, deflation might be right around the corner if foreign investors stop buying our debt.
Americans will begin to see globalization as a disaster, and begin to call for tariffs, and a return to isolationism.
The coin market will be stable to up for many rarer coins. One of my multi-millionaire friends says there are now 10 Billionaires in the high-end coin market, so expect to see some additional moon money on big time coins. However the biggest percentage gains for average collectors will come from the more common date high end silver coins that move up with silver, Franklins, Walkers, Morgan’s, etc.
The overall market for more common rarer coins in MS 60 to 63 will not move up much, as much of the money for this market will find a home in Jumbo C.D.S or bonds at 4.5% plus.
0
Comments
Not trying to be doom and gloom - just a thought.
My Auctions
My question to followers of this thread is- how much does it cost to plant a story like this? The military is doing it in Iraq, are PM bugs doing the same?
Followup point- at a closing yesterday, I asked a mortgage broker who is still refinancing their homes. He responded that there are still a few who have been asleep for a good while. He recently refi'ed someone out of a 10% note. But the bulk of refi'ers now are those who are taking cash out. This would explain the rise in negative savings rates.
Random Collector
www.marksmedals.com
<< <i>My question to followers of this thread is- how much does it cost to plant a story like this? The military is doing it in Iraq, are PM bugs doing the same? >>
What is a PM ? Sorry, If I am not keeping up with abbreviations
Greenspan warns anew about budget deficits. Link Here
The economy is running on borrowed money. It is just a temporary euphoria. Once all money dries up, they can extend it more by cranking up the money supply even greater than the horrendous amount it is now. It is like maxing out all the credit cards, sure you will enjoy the shopping and the spending and the gift giving.
This has evolved into a very polite and disciplined thread and I like it. The one thing that amazes me is the level of financial sophistication that some posters have and the various arenas that are represented...day traders, market analysts, realestate/mortgage brokers, metals people, coin people, investors of all type and discipline, even lowly planners. The common part of this thread that is so compelling is that it is about something near and dear to all of us: It's about the money and economic survival/prosperity.
So, here's to '06. This new year is poised to welcome a new financial age, in my view. Realestate is in transition, metal is in transition, energy is in transition, then you have disasters, terrorism, energy, and markets. There is a change in the wings for the world order as China, the sleeping giant, wakens and begins to take steps into the brave new world with 1920's infrastructure and a huge, bright, ambitious population that thursts for freedom, both economic and political. China is covered in pollution and filth and an ancient form of government, possibly the last of the significant communist political systems that is doomed to failure if it doesn't adapt to a 21st century world. The US is no longer the only gorilla in the jungle and must share with China as old Europe is challenged to either fade into the past or find some way to become relevant in the future. Space is no longer the last frontier, it's the next area to be colonized/owned/fought for/bought and sold...it's a brave new world.
And that brings us to us...how do we, as individuals remain financially secure and prosperous so that we can care for our families and remain competitive in our chosen areas of interest? How do we stay light of foot and able to respond to changes. Hoperfully, this thread may provide some insight or some ideas or thoughts, things to ponder and facts to digest, opinions to consider and maybe some great revelations that will benefit those that pay attention. The greatest resource we share in this thread is our collective understanding, our individual knowledge and skills, and our willingness to share information for our mutual well being.
Light the rocket!
This allows us to look back on the old one all in one thread. I use it for historical reference and comparison. It is amazing!
In with the new.
Just along for the ride.
hi, i'm tom.
i do not doctor coins like some who post in here.
We should start seeing inflation numbers go up as commodity increases and the effects
of the lower dollar ripple through the economy. The stock market will continue its side-
ways movement but will appear to increase as it nearly keeps up with inflation. As divi-
dends expand and profits accrue it will set up one of the biggest equity bull markets
ever, but that is still well in the future.
It's still a good time to keep one's powder dry either in a few select equities, metals, or
I-bonds. Don't get in a hurry since it will be better to be a little late than what might
prove years too early.
Well I can see we have a mixed review on the new thread.
I agree that it is not necessary to have a new thread each year, but the original thread had become so long that it is nearly impossible for any new members to read, and also very hard to find related material in the hundreds of pages.
All that being said many many forum members have posted, and even though I began both threads these threads belong to all of us so lets let the majority rule and vote.
Someone help me out here and add a poll to both threads.
Vote for
GOLD, SILVER, WORLD NEWS, ECONOMIC PREDICTIONS (old thread)
or
GOLD, SILVER, WORLD NEWS, ECONOMIC PREDICTIONS 2006 (new thread)
<< <i>Well I can see we have a mixed review on the new thread.
I agree that it is not necessary to have a new thread each year, but the original thread had become so long that it is nearly impossible for any new members to read, and also very hard to find related material in the hundreds of pages.
All that being said many many forum members have posted, and even though I began both threads these threads belong to all of us so lets let the majority rule and vote.
Someone help me out here and add a poll to both threads.
Vote for
GOLD, SILVER, WORLD NEWS, ECONOMIC PREDICTIONS (old thread)
or
GOLD, SILVER, WORLD NEWS, ECONOMIC PREDICTIONS 2006 (new thread) >>
Only the author of a thread can start a poll. You can always start your own poll but
be sure to add a "who cares" option. Just write out your post normally and then click
the add a poll option when you're ready to post. It will walk you through how to com-
plete it but it may be a good idea to try it on the testing forum first.
Something about the history of it and so forth. Also, we have an exciting month ahead of us yet, it's hardly 2006 already.
I'll follow the herd wherever we end up. Since I had been with it all along, I just clicked last each time I opened it. It was very easy to keep up with.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>Gold will see $550
Silver will see $12 >>
Why such a big difference in the % gain? Why so much higher for silver than gold?
Robert A. Heinlein
The 2006 elections could signal a major change in direction. If we are still hearing about "staying the course" in Iraq at that time I predict that both houses of Congress will be Democratic controlled in 2007. This will probably mark the end of the age of the "billionaires." The effect on the upper end of the coin market could be very pronounced.
The total coin collector population will continue to decline as age takes its toll. The middle of the coin market won't do well as middle America finds its real income declining.
I have no idea where gold and silver will be. I'm really not involved in the market and don't have much stake in it.
<< <i>The 2006 elections could signal a major change in direction. If we are still hearing about "staying the course" in Iraq at that time I predict that both houses of Congress will be Democratic controlled in 2007. >>
Now that's just damned delusional. Not to mention that it would be a horrible thing to have happen to our country. Just remembering those Jimmy Carter days of financial disaster is enough to make me sick all over again. I lost my job, my house and was seriously considering filing for bankruptcy, which is against all of my principles. Fortunately I didn't follow through with it and worked my butt off for several years to recover. 21% interest rates, sky-high inflation, and huge tax increases are NOT what we need.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>
<< <i>The 2006 elections could signal a major change in direction. If we are still hearing about "staying the course" in Iraq at that time I predict that both houses of Congress will be Democratic controlled in 2007. >>
Now that's just damned delusional. Not to mention that it would be a horrible thing to have happen to our country. Just remembering those Jimmy Carter days of financial disaster is enough to make me sick all over again. I lost my job, my house and was seriously considering filing for bankruptcy, which is against all of my principles. Fortunately I didn't follow through with it and worked my butt off for several years to recover. 21% interest rates, sky-high inflation, and huge tax increases are NOT what we need. >>
Why is it "delusional?" I'm not promoting the Democratic party. To me they are just as bad as the Bush Republicans.
My statement is just based on what I think will happen. The leadership in this country, in both government and business, is dismal. When there is a leadership problem, bad things happen.
Sorry I must say the 1970's all over again. Can you say STAGFLATION. If you factor out Taxes, Health, College, Food, and Energy costs, sure we have no inflation. Computers and most electronics have been going down in price over the last several years. Can you eat a computer and will it pay for your child to go to college? IMHO opinion we will see $1,000+ Gold (probably more like $2,000) and $50+ Silver. Do your own due diligence.
Listen to this:
http://www.freemarketnews.com/eRADIOLaunch.asp?rid=350
some of your coin collection.
Pick up some Government I bonds
Lock down a fixed mortgage rate
Lock away credit cards.
Anticipate a true inflation rate of 7-8% by end of 06
Begin to stockpile staples like canned foods, T.P. soap
detergents, ect befor the prices shoot up.
The fat lady is getting ready to sing.
Camelot
<< <i>Pay down your debt even if you have to sell off some of your coin collection.
...
Anticipate a true inflation rate of 7-8% by end of 06
...
The fat lady is getting ready to sing. >>
What if a person had debt, but coins in the form of bullion ?
On one hand, a person could sell the bullion at the current relatively-high bullion prices to pay down the debt.
On the other hand, if inflation really does accelerate, the value of that bullion (as measured in depreciating dollars) could very well increase much faster than the accruing interest on that debt.
A tough decision, I think.
In my case, I don't have much choice since I already sold everything on eBay and the only valuables we have are locked up in Delaware in my wife's precious metals IRA
I see gold at $550 one year from now, But I think silver will be lucky to get to $10.....let alone $12.......
TorinoCobra71
2 little letters: M3
<< <i>Pay down your debt even if you have to sell off
some of your coin collection.
The fat lady is getting ready to sing. >>
Nah, hide it as the government is out of control and will be looking to raise ( steal ) money any way that it can.
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Don
He is bloviating and attempting
to sell the Nation that all is under control
"the economy is fundamentally sound" we are
taking corrective action.
Translated, we are losing control, be very afraid
the worst is yet to come. It is beyond the ability
of the Government to control the situation.
President Hoover gave the same reassuring words and t
tone in 1929, 1930, 1931 ect. "Prosperity is just around the corner".
Camelot
In re-reading the opening comment, the active discussions of over a decade ago are the same as today. Inflation/deflation, tariffs, trillion dollar deficits, Republicans inept (democrats too), wages stagnant, real estate bubbles, pensions collapse and on and on.
This was 13 years ago. For many of us that's 25-50% or more of our expected remaining lifetimes. Think about that.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Threads like these are good reasons not to listen to gold bugs for investment decisions. Their banter and paranoia never change.
@cohodk Thank you. The CU archives are a treasure and chock-full of pertinent threads.
My intent was not to call anyone out, but rather to illustrate that the concerns of today were the concerns of yesterday. And to dwell and worry on the "what if" is usually a futile exercise.
There is a much longer thread of nearly the same topic that is a great read on "us forum member" as we have grown and increased our knowledge and understanding through experience over the last decade. Oftentines it is good to see how our own views change over time.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The more things change, the more they remain the same......someone said that.. not me... However, it is very accurate. Cheers, RickO
2008 happened, and the comments in this thread are reminiscent of the conditions that existed before the real estate & stock market blowoff.
Gold recovered, and then went on a tear from 2009 to 2011, much faster than the stock market, as I recall.
Threads like these are good reasons not to listen to stock market pumpers & bankers for investment decisions. Their derisive banter about precious metals and myopic goldilocks stock market tunnel visions never change.
Maybe the solution is to consider all the angles.
I knew it would happen.
History is truth. Some folk cant handle the truth. Fortunately they can always find comfort in a scapegoat.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I sure hope we don't start the gold bug vs day trader banter again, they're both wrong🤣
You widget collectors do your thing, houses were high in the 60s right. 🤣😂These threads hide shades of gray as the song goes you should have seen it in color.