Well, if my math is right...(which it probably isn't...) here is a breakdown.
-Total Auto Count-
Real One - 23 Players 200 autos Real One Red - 23 Players 56 autos Club.Coll Relic/Au. - 5 Players, 25 Autos Flashback Au - 10 Players, 25 Autos Flashback Relic/Au - 10 Players, 25 autos Team Topps - 6 players (? autos) I am guessing this will be the majority of the retail autos?
Real One - 4600 Real One Red - 1288 Club. Coll Rel. - 125 Flashbacks - 250 Flashback Rel - 250 1/1 Cut Sigs - 7 Team Topps - ?
Total # autographs (not counting Team Topps) = 6520
Since there are no hard and fast odds on anything that's numbered it's hard to judge the number of cases.... But, here are a few choices...
The chromes are #/1956 and fall about 6/box IIRC... so... 110 players, 1956 copies of each.... 215,160 total chrome cards.
215160/48 = 4482 total cases.
Problem with that is, it blows the real one odds out of the water. The total # of real one autos (red/blue) is 5,888. Those have combined odds of 1:330. So you need 1,943,040 packs to keep those odds. Divide that by 192 packs in a case...and we come up with 10,120 cases.
Overall au odds (1:163) Real One Odds (1:330)
If we assume the 1.9 million packs is about right then we come up with needing about 11,920 autos total to fulfill those odds. So 11,920-6520 puts us at 5400 Team Topps autos. 6 players, that's 900 copies each on average. Ryan probably signed fewer and others probably signed more.
Game used fall about 4/case so that makes a combined 40,000, minus the gu that was used in the prodcution of the au/gu cards.
So final tally by my strange-brew math is this...
Cases-10,120 Packs-1.9 Million Autographs: Real One - 4600 Real One Red - 1288 Club. Coll Rel. - 125 Flashbacks - 250 Flashback Rel - 250 1/1 Cut Sigs - 7 Team Topps - 5400 Game Used - 40,000+
Disclaimer: Now this math may be completely off and I take no responsibility for it's correctness. I did this in-between the boss stopping at my desk and taking tylenol for my wicked hangover from bowling last night.
There are a lot of posts for 2005 Topps. It is hard to keep up if its not all centralized.
"So many of our DREAMS at first seem impossible, then they seem improbable, and then, when we SUMMON THE WILL they soon become INEVITABLE "- Christopher Reeve
oh, that was yours? I saw that one close. I'm feeling pretty good about my Feller getting $125 on BIN then. I saw a Duke Snider go on BIN for 99.99. I was a little disenchanted when the feller sold in 20 minutes, thinking I should have put a higher bin on it. But if Frank went for 150 I can't expect that Feller would have done any better. Thanks for making me feel better.
<< <i>oh, that was yours? I saw that one close. I'm feeling pretty good about my Feller getting $125 on BIN then. I saw a Duke Snider go on BIN for 99.99. I was a little disenchanted when the feller sold in 20 minutes, thinking I should have put a higher bin on it. But if Frank went for 150 I can't expect that Feller would have done any better. Thanks for making me feel better. >>
yeah, i saw Luis Aparicio auto's bringing $200+ though.. definitely the earlier the better..
I had reported these general ebay findings - they favor autos and not sets this year:
1. 2005 Topps Heritage Bob Feller Red Real One Auto 40/56 - closed at $88.77
2. 2005 Topps Heritage AUTO Yogi Berra 1 in 333 Packs - auction hyped by the odds and closed at $76.99!
IMO, that's too high to pay for Yogi in blue...in red yes.
3. TOPPS HERITAGE 2005 BASEBALL CHROME SET (110) BONDS - closed at $361 - actually not a bad price to pay!
4. This year Master Sets are closing "cheaper" than last early on - I saw guys sell them in the 400+ range last year - this year they are closing on average of around 300+
318, 345, 300, 313, 328, 340, 304 and $305.
If you get something good, don't hesitate to put it up I guess.
Im glad that these cards are getting the prices that they deserve! Heritage puts out autographs cards in 2.99 packs that are better than what fleer puts out for 25 bucks a pack!
Went to Target - the Excel rep (Alvin) was there - they are the vendor for target since they don't buy anything direct. He told me he is clueless when they will get TH. And for what it's worth, he refers to retail boxes that get opened - Pack Boxes as opposed to those that get sold closed as Full Boxes. He says that his stores usually get stocked in the evening unless he does it himself - in that case, they hold the boxes for him in the storage area.
Will be heading out the Wally world this eve most likely.
have been to 3 wal marts and two targets and have NOTHING!!!
JS >>
Kevin must be regional - as I posted earlier, I even spoke with Alvin the Excel rep for the Target stores in my area and he says it's not in his distribution area - but I think the guy is clueless IMO. In general, he did say they stock the shelves at night at these Targets. Will have the wife check for me tomorrow!
The kicker is, my target did get in new stuff..actually new garbage. I was sitting there with my wallet and couldn't pull the trigger on anything!!!
There has been a 29.99 box spotting over on the beckett boards. Someone also is in the middle of a retail case bust and after two boxes he has a black refractor and a red auto! I think Im going to need to see some scans.
It looks like lunch break tomorrow is going to be spent in the car driving around looking to feed the addiction.
For the record, I don't think they're $29.99 boxes, but $19.99 boxes. Instead of buy 10 get 1 free, it's buy 7 get one free, bringing our per pack cost down to $2.50 per instead of $2.75. Small victories like this will make up for the watering down of the autos I guess.
And I made my Pilgritage to the local outlets and it has not yet hit College Station. Mike, I wonder if we have the same distributor? I doubt it but possible.
so far there has been NO mention of extra short prints in the retail boxes. I have yet to confirm if the odds are the same in the hobby but if they aren' then this is the first year that hobby might actually be worth it. (Until you can't find a box for under 80). Keep in mind retail boxes are 76 bucks with a minimum of 6% tax right?
19.99 boxes were around back in 01 and 02, they are nice, give more people more options, and might be a sign that topps didn't overproduce this stuff!
If anyone has opened any retail please compare the odds to hobby and get back to us.
all of the retail ie. 12x2, 6x4 config boxes that I've seen broken have yielded essentially the same cards as a hobby box. The real one autos are listed at 1:332 on the retail wrappers. I don't recall what the overall auto odds were though. The NAP and T&N were both listed at 1:15, chrome refractors were listed at 1:25, game used at 1:36, reg chrome @ 1:8. The retail boxes should be $72/box + tx. 2.99*24. On the box breaks I saw, it was 11-14 SP's/vars, and the rest fell at the odds stated above.
The booster boxes I am still waiting on in MN as well. I checked target today again and nothing. If I remember correctly though, the booster boxes (11 packs for $30) didn't hit for 2 or 3 weeks after regular retail.
I've gone through three cases and two boxes of Heritage and I am still three SPs short of completing my first set. Of course, I'm only 12 short of a second master set and 44 short of a third set.
Comments
-Total Auto Count-
Real One - 23 Players 200 autos
Real One Red - 23 Players 56 autos
Club.Coll Relic/Au. - 5 Players, 25 Autos
Flashback Au - 10 Players, 25 Autos
Flashback Relic/Au - 10 Players, 25 autos
Team Topps - 6 players (? autos) I am guessing this will be the majority of the retail autos?
Real One - 4600
Real One Red - 1288
Club. Coll Rel. - 125
Flashbacks - 250
Flashback Rel - 250
1/1 Cut Sigs - 7
Team Topps - ?
Total # autographs (not counting Team Topps) = 6520
Since there are no hard and fast odds on anything that's numbered it's hard to judge the number of cases.... But, here are a few choices...
The chromes are #/1956 and fall about 6/box IIRC... so...
110 players, 1956 copies of each.... 215,160 total chrome cards.
215160/48 = 4482 total cases.
Problem with that is, it blows the real one odds out of the water. The total # of real one autos (red/blue) is 5,888. Those have combined odds of 1:330. So you need 1,943,040 packs to keep those odds. Divide that by 192 packs in a case...and we come up with 10,120 cases.
Overall au odds (1:163)
Real One Odds (1:330)
If we assume the 1.9 million packs is about right then we come up with needing about 11,920 autos total to fulfill those odds. So 11,920-6520 puts us at 5400 Team Topps autos. 6 players, that's 900 copies each on average. Ryan probably signed fewer and others probably signed more.
Game used fall about 4/case so that makes a combined 40,000, minus the gu that was used in the prodcution of the au/gu cards.
So final tally by my strange-brew math is this...
Cases-10,120
Packs-1.9 Million
Autographs:
Real One - 4600
Real One Red - 1288
Club. Coll Rel. - 125
Flashbacks - 250
Flashback Rel - 250
1/1 Cut Sigs - 7
Team Topps - 5400
Game Used - 40,000+
Disclaimer:
Now this math may be completely off and I take no responsibility for it's correctness. I did this in-between the boss stopping at my desk and taking tylenol for my wicked hangover from bowling last night.
My eBay Store
BigCrumbs! I made over $250 last year!
BST: Tennessebanker, Downtown1974, LarkinCollector, nendee
Kevin
My eBay Store
BigCrumbs! I made over $250 last year!
<< <i>oh, that was yours? I saw that one close. I'm feeling pretty good about my Feller getting $125 on BIN then. I saw a Duke Snider go on BIN for 99.99. I was a little disenchanted when the feller sold in 20 minutes, thinking I should have put a higher bin on it. But if Frank went for 150 I can't expect that Feller would have done any better. Thanks for making me feel better.
yeah, i saw Luis Aparicio auto's bringing $200+ though.. definitely the earlier the better..
I had reported these general ebay findings - they favor autos and not sets this year:
1. 2005 Topps Heritage Bob Feller Red Real One Auto 40/56 - closed at $88.77
2. 2005 Topps Heritage AUTO Yogi Berra 1 in 333 Packs - auction hyped by the odds and closed at $76.99!
IMO, that's too high to pay for Yogi in blue...in red yes.
3. TOPPS HERITAGE 2005 BASEBALL CHROME SET (110) BONDS - closed at $361 - actually not a bad price to pay!
4. This year Master Sets are closing "cheaper" than last early on - I saw guys sell them in the 400+ range last year - this year they are closing on average of around 300+
318, 345, 300, 313, 328, 340, 304 and $305.
If you get something good, don't hesitate to put it up I guess.
your friend
Mike
better than what fleer puts out for 25 bucks a pack!
Kevin
Went to Target - the Excel rep (Alvin) was there - they are the vendor for target since they don't buy anything direct. He told me he is clueless when they will get TH. And for what it's worth, he refers to retail boxes that get opened - Pack Boxes as opposed to those that get sold closed as
Full Boxes. He says that his stores usually get stocked in the evening unless he does it himself - in that case, they hold the boxes for him in the storage area.
Will be heading out the Wally world this eve most likely.
your friend
Mike
Kevin
<< <i>I hit the (not-so-local) supercenter. I will be hitting the local target tonight. Perry...you hitting the west side?
Kevin >>
heh.. i might hit Normandy Blvd in a little while.. westside in da hizouse..
I just bought 4 packs to get the flavor and am waiting for the bonus boxes.
Still I got 2 sp's and 2 chromes (?):
THC2 - Warren Giles 0042/1956
THC87- Jose Vaquedano 1218/1956
I gotta say I love the pictures on these cards. 32 in total and not one duplicate.
The only star I got was Delgado and, unfortunately, no Cubs (except for Hairston Jr. in an Orioles uni...but a SP nonetheless).
Great looking set.
have been to 3 wal marts and two targets and have NOTHING!!!
JS
<< <i>AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHh
have been to 3 wal marts and two targets and have NOTHING!!!
JS >>
Kevin
must be regional - as I posted earlier, I even spoke with Alvin the Excel rep for the Target stores in my area and he says it's not in his distribution area - but I think the guy is clueless IMO.
In general, he did say they stock the shelves at night at these Targets.
Will have the wife check for me tomorrow!
The hunt is on!
your friend
Mike
on anything!!!
There has been a 29.99 box spotting over on the beckett boards. Someone also is in the middle of a retail case bust and after two
boxes he has a black refractor and a red auto! I think Im going to need to see some scans.
It looks like lunch break tomorrow is going to be spent in the car driving around looking to feed the addiction.
JS<------retailess
My eBay Store
BigCrumbs! I made over $250 last year!
<< <i>There has been a 29.99 box spotting over on the beckett boards. >>
Joe,
Any word on the SP ratio in the $29.99 box?
Allen & Ginter Cards
My Blog -- Ballcard Mania
And I made my Pilgritage to the local outlets and it has not yet hit College Station. Mike, I wonder if we have the same distributor? I doubt it but possible.
Scott
T-205 Gold PSA 4 & up
1967 Topps BB PSA 8 & up
1975 Topps BB PSA 9 & up
1959 Topps FB PSA 8 & up
1976 Topps FB PSA 9 & up
1981 Topps FB PSA 10
1976-77 Topps BK PSA 9 & up
1988-89 Fleer BK PSA 10
3,000 Hit Club RC PSA 5 & Up
My Sets
if they aren' then this is the first year that hobby might actually be worth it. (Until you can't find a box for under 80). Keep in mind
retail boxes are 76 bucks with a minimum of 6% tax right?
19.99 boxes were around back in 01 and 02, they are nice, give more people more options, and might be a sign that topps didn't
overproduce this stuff!
If anyone has opened any retail please compare the odds to hobby and get back to us.
Thanks
Kevin
The booster boxes I am still waiting on in MN as well. I checked target today again and nothing. If I remember correctly though, the booster boxes (11 packs for $30) didn't hit for 2 or 3 weeks after regular retail.
Hope that helps.
My eBay Store
BigCrumbs! I made over $250 last year!
I've gone through three cases and two boxes of Heritage and I am still three SPs short of completing my first set.
Of course, I'm only 12 short of a second master set
and 44 short of a third set.