>>>save your pro-illegal diatribe for those that have had their identities stolen by illegals so they can get these jobs that "Americans won't do". Identity theft is the fastest growing crime in the US. Do you think that these are only a result of those people stupid enough to give their info to those overseas in scams? the answer is a resounding NO. Illegal immigrants need papers to work, or at least a valid SS # and ID. where do you think they get these from? stolen IDs are an epidemic problem these last few years.>>>>
you can buy all the documents you need at any flea market in any town....so no they dont need stolen docs....btw indenity theft is indeed a large problem however you are in error when you think its for documentation...try credit card theft....plain and simple
btw employers defend themselves ( justifably so by saying we are employers not fake documentaion experts)
the fact is your governemnt let the immigration happen as it is in your best interest
Those of you that apologize for the illegality of these people, while chastising me for earning a good living and enjoy luxuries is silly at best. Since you're talking about mantras, try this one on: if they came here illegally, more than likely are doing jobs using fake documents (again, illegal), why should we trust that they won't commit further crimes and expect them to be upstanding citizens? >>>>
brilliant logic........not...ok you win...lets ship them all out...right now
here is exactly what will happen
inflation will roar like never before.....in fact it will be runaway inflation....you will get many raises...more raises...and more raises...but the rich will get more than you...as they always do....and when the big mac gets to be 20 dollars and the dollar menu goes to 5 dollar menu .....i hope you can cover the quintupling of all your costs with your tripling of your salary
do the math pal!!!...you lose...i win
monsterman
my goal is to find the monsters and i go where they are but i sometimes miss some.... so if you have any and want to sell IM THE BUYER FOR THEM!!!
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
<< <i>Gold didnt go down as much because it hadnt gone up in the last 2 years. Even after a 10% hiccup in equities it has still outperformed gold over the last year.
The bottom line is that gold, silver, oil, corn, equities, bonds, ect, are nothing more than trading vehicles(assets) that should NEVER be soley relied upon to secure financial freedom. Each asset class has its day in the sun and that is when you should own it. Stocks were great to hold in the 90's, metals outperformed from 2000 to 2005. Even real estate got artificially inflated and was a great place to be.
This is almost comical. Gold surely gets no respect. Now it doesn't perform well because it hadn't gone up "enough" in the past 16 months. Does it matter why? All that does matter is that it only went down a few percent compared to the overall stock market.
When gold performs in the short term, the naysayers complain about the poor "long term performance." When gold performs year over year and outkicks the S&P by a mile over 6 years, then the short term performance is hammered. Just can't win with some people. When it performs well again in the short term, be assured you will hear about it's poor 20, 30 and 50 year performance again....like that has any bearing on how it does from 2001-present.
Gold boogers will find something wrong with anything they do not personally believe in. I'm sure gold's performance in the 1970's is problematic because it went down 50% in 1974-1976. Yet it's overall performance from 1971 to 1980 was dramatic (8X or more). That while stocks went absolutely nowhere for the entire decade. Bottom line is that over the past 6 years, no stock market index has outperformed gold or gold shares. We will be saying the same thing at the 10 year point as well.
So what does Cohdk recommend over the next 12 months as surely it's not gold or commodities. I want to be here in August 2008 to compare the outcomes.
roadrunner >>
RR,
I have never said gold or commodities have never been a good investment.
What is not comical is the FACT that those who have held gold expecting Armegeddon over the past year have been left in the dust by equities. Pne could even say that the collapse of the mortgage market and the unwinding of the carry trade has been financial Armegeddon. Gold hasnt helped you one bit. In fact, I would have been better off just collecting interest in a bank savings account.
You, yourself wrote in a reply to Cladking, that gold is not a great long term hold. You said that it is best for only a several year hold. Well, perhaps that several year hold was from 2001 to 2006? I know you firmly believe that gold will return 500-1000% over the next (10) years. It is great to see your conviction, but in truth, you have absolutely no idea what gold will be worth in 10 years, or 5, or even 6 months.
I try not to make recommendations on these boards because my investment time horizon can be usually be measured by a stopwatch. My style does not work for 99.99% of the populace but it works for me. My trading account is up 20% this month. This is real dollars-greenbacks. You may not like dollars, but the gas station, Dunkin Donuts, the Rennaisance Festival, and a restuarant all accepted them gladly today. Although, I did not try, I imagine all would have looked at me quite strangely, or perhaps even called the authorities, if I tried to pay with a Maple Leaf.
Some people think gold or metals are the cure all for Doomsday. They are entitled to their opinion. I believe it is nothing more than a trading vehicle that outperforms other assets at certain intervals. Some think equities are the cure all for Doomsday. Again, I believe it is nothing more than a trading vehicle that outperforms other assets at certain intervals.
Some people think the dollar is going to be more worthless than Italian Lira. I, for one, would never bet against America.
To get to your question. At any given time you will find me heavily invested in cash. I invest like a sniper, taking advantage of arrogance, fear, greed and ignorance. I am not concerned about the wealth of the rest of the world, or even my neighbor, for I have only to answer to my family. No one is looking out for me except myself. I try to give a few hints/ideas to the board through the use of technical analysis--voodoo to many. But then again, arent we all afraid of what we dont understand?
But, for you, I will make an exception so that I can go on record. I would not want to bet against the dollar over the next 12 months. This does not mean I do not like gold or other metals, as I have said many times that I do not believe gold is as closely tied to the dollar as you do. I will reitterate--I would not bet against the dollar over the next 12 months.
>>>>Some people think the dollar is going to be more worthless than Italian Lira. I, for one, would never bet against America.
that is not possible....but here is the real deal
1) all goverments inflate....brazil,argentina,peru ect have all been inflating for years...and they all have seeked out the dollar for safety
2) the are 24 hours in a day and as the world modernizes more productivity is coming out of other countries than ever before
3) the growth is not here in the us like before...the baby boomers have already done their thing
4) 3rd world is the future growth area
all this bodes bad for the dollar....as they are not inflating like they have been...yet we have been like never before
now lets visit inflation...its simply the gov printing more dollars than the people produce aka gdp.....in the 3rd world they are indeed producing more themselves than ever in the history of the world...and so are we...however the % is closing and we are losing our lead
I would not bet against the dollar over the next 12 months.>>>>i would and have....and its simple
are you aware that most of the gold producers in the world have dumped their hedge books????and betting everything on gold going up..insanity unless you are absolutely sure the next 3 to 4 years is a bummer for the dollar
and about the stock market...hope you know its been going down for 5 years now...its not going up!!!but rather straight down
in order to figure this out please convert your dollars to euors...or gold...or the looney...or the pound....and you will see its going straight down
my friend dogy thinks he is doing well....and gets a 3 % merit raise and a 2.5 cost of livng raise every year...but the fact is inflation has been over 10% for the last 2 years now...ask your wife...as the 100 dollar bag of groceries has been getting smaller and smaller
a 100k in jan 06 will have the buying power of 70 something christmas 07
me i love it .........as conrete which last for decades is now 90 per yard yet i paid 32 for mine...my steel buildings now cost 500% more than a decade ago....and yes i have raised my prices way out in front of inflation.....and yes my bank debt is now being paid back with much cheaper and earier to come by dollars...that is how the rich get richer whichis why we are in the highest tax brakets
monsterman
my goal is to find the monsters and i go where they are but i sometimes miss some.... so if you have any and want to sell IM THE BUYER FOR THEM!!!
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
my friend dogy thinks he is doing well....and gets a 3 % merit raise and a 2.5 cost of livng raise every year...but the fact is inflation has been over 10% for the last 2 years now...ask your wife...as the 100 dollar bag of groceries has been getting smaller and smaller
me i love it .........as conrete which last for decades is now 90 per yard yet i paid 32 for mine...my steel buildings now cost 500% more than a decade ago....and yes i have raised my prices way out in front of inflation.....and yes my bank debt is now being paid back with much cheaper and earier to come by dollars...that is how the rich get richer whichis why we are in the highest tax brakets
monsterman >>
first off, don't pretend to know what i make or what my net worth is by your drivel of "merit raises and COL raises" like you're speaking down to me. Even though you may be in the highest tax "braket", it may surprise you that me and others on this board may indeed make and have more money than you but don't feel the need to brag about it in every other post. The fact that you advocate and use illegal labor doesn't make you any kind of capitalist American hero , it simply shows you are willing to sell our country out to the lowest labor bidder.
<< <i>"You didn't do too well in math, did you? 55 + 30 = 85. "
Thanks Perry, but I think I have it!
She was going to keep investing until age 85 and then start spending the money!
I made the ASSUMPTION she would not keep investing until she kealed over, maybe I am wrong, perhaps she will >>
You would be surprised how many people save and invest until they die. Many prople are in denial when it comes to their own mortality.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i> Some people think gold or metals are the cure all for Doomsday. They are entitled to their opinion. I believe it is nothing more than a trading vehicle that outperforms other assets at certain intervals. Some think equities are the cure all for Doomsday. Again, I believe it is nothing more than a trading vehicle that outperforms other assets at certain intervals.
Some people think the dollar is going to be more worthless than Italian Lira. I, for one, would never bet against America.
I would not want to bet against the dollar over the next 12 months. This does not mean I do not like gold or other metals, as I have said many times that I do not believe gold is as closely tied to the dollar as you do. I will reitterate--I would not bet against the dollar over the next 12 months. >>
Codohk, I think your analysis is right on point. Gold is a commodity which, like other commodities, has seen a strong run up in prices. But there's nothing about gold that makes it unique. All of the things attributed to it by gold bugs are also true, to varying degrees, for other metals and for other "hard" assets. That's why I posted earlier that in a credit crunch, asset prices (like gold) usually deflate and cash becomes more expensive.
For the record, over a month ago I sold all my mutual fund stock holdings and moved the money into a "safe" bond fund. This was based on my belief that we are entering an economic slowdown, based on low Q1 2007 GDP numbers and repeated sub-100,000 growth in new jobs, which is lower than the rate of labor market growth (~ 160,000 new jobs/month are needed just to keep the unemployment rate flat given new entrants into labor pool). Not based on the subprime mess, which I didn't predict, though I think it will have an effect on an already weak economy. Have seen a modest return since then, up about 1.5% on the month on the bond fund. But the mutual funds I sold have all lost 10% or more. In the last recession, most bond funds did great while stocks got pummeled. The key is to ride them up and then buy back into stock funds when stocks are beat up.
I also don't bet against the US, in the long run. At the moment, I think the US dollar is oversold and is too cheap.
"Men who had never shown any ability to make or increase fortunes for themselves abounded in brilliant plans for creating and increasing wealth for the country at large." Fiat Money Inflation in France, Andrew Dickson White (1912)
So most of us have figured out on our own, about a Minsky moment, so what’s next?
”Hyman Minsky, who died more than a decade ago, spent much of his career advancing the idea that financial systems are inherently susceptible to bouts of speculation that, if they last long enough, end in crises.
At its core, the Minsky view was straightforward: When times are good, investors take on risk; the longer times stay good, the more risk they take on, until they've taken on too much. Eventually, they reach a point where the cash generated by their assets no longer is sufficient to pay off the mountains of debt they took on to acquire them. Losses on such speculative assets prompt lenders to call in their loans. "This is likely to lead to a collapse of asset values," Mr. Minsky wrote.
When investors are forced to sell even their less-speculative positions to make good on their loans, markets spiral lower and create a severe demand for cash. At that point, the Minsky moment has arrived.
"We are in the midst of a Minsky moment, bordering on a Minsky meltdown," says Paul McCulley, an economist and fund manager at Pacific Investment Management Co., the world's largest bond-fund manager, in an email exchange.
The housing market is a case in point, says Investment Technology Group Inc. economist Robert Barbera, who first met Mr. Minsky in the late 1980s. When home buyers were expected to have a down payment of 10% or 20% to qualify for a mortgage, and to provide income documentation that showed they'd be able to make payments, there was minimal risk. But as home prices rose, and speculators entered the market, lenders relaxed their guard and began offering loans with no money down and little or no documentation.
Once home prices stalled and, in many of the more-speculative markets, fell, there was a big problem.
"If you're lending to home buyers with 20% down and house prices fall by 2%, so what?" Mr. Barbera says. If most of a lender's portfolio is tied up in loans to buyers who "don't put anything down and house prices fall by 2%, you're bankrupt," he says.
Steven Fazzari, an economics professor at Washington University, says that Mr. Minsky would have supported the Federal Reserve's recent move to provide cash and cut the rate it charges banks on loans from its discount window to try to avert a financial crisis that could spill over to the economy. But he would probably be worried, too, that the moves might be bailing out investors who would all too soon be speculating again.”
Setting aside our political differences, and those concerning illegal immigration, and the like, we are basically in this thread to make money to buy coins and to protect our families, so what’s next?
It appears to me that with the current amount of speculation in all the world markets, and the fact that most all of us would agree that governments around the world have no morals about lying to us about inflation, and no scruples about manipulating markets of all kinds, it is up to us as individuals to protect ourselves.
We each have our points to be made about various investments, but no one here really has all their money JUST in Gold, or JUST in Real Estate, Or JUST in stocks.
It also appears in today’s fast moving world those that do the best job of growing their family wealth, must work a little harder, think a little longer, and move a little faster.
The days of making a pile of money and just letting it sit in bonds, or cash, and watching it grow are GONE! No matter what pile of cash you have earned in a lifetime of work and savings the government is going to eat you alive with taxes and inflation.
People have gotten very lazy with their money. They have relied on money managers, Funds, ETF’s etc. to do their work and thinking for them. That has got to stop if they are going to protect their family wealth.
We have all got to become a little more like cohodk; we must become more nimble, as well as more educated.
I opened an online discount brokerage account yesterday, and I see no reason that we cannot use what we are learning here to make money in the stock market as long as we use common sense and conservative values.
Here are some of the rules I think I will start with.
I am going to buy some companies that pay dividends at a rate around the current C.D. rate.
I am going to pick companies that have heavy, paid for, hard assets.
I am going to buy companies in areas that people must have to get by in life.
I am going to buy very large companies that will be more likely to buy back shares than issue new options and shares to pay management.
I am going to buy companies that make piles of cash in worldwide markets and do not need to play foolish borrowing games, unless it is to buy more hard assets.
I am only going to buy stocks that I do my own research on, do my own homework on. If the market has a “Minsky moment,” and the leverage fools must sell my stocks to cover their arse, and the market drops, I am going to add to that position.
Putting it quite simply I am going to find a way to make at least a 10% return each year so that my excess capital does not become toilet paper.
No I am not selling my Gold, or real estate, or coins, or bonds, or anything else,
and yes I am going to use all the sharp minds here every week to keep me informed so I don’t miss anything, and I will be waiting for those Minsky moments to buy more.
What is not comical is the FACT that those who have held gold expecting Armegeddon over the past year have been left in the dust by equities. Pne could even say that the collapse of the mortgage market and the unwinding of the carry trade has been financial Armegeddon. Gold hasnt helped you one bit. In fact, I would have been better off just collecting interest in a bank savings account.
Sure gold has helped me over the past year. In fact I sold nearly all my MS63 and MS64 type gold in 2006 and am now buying the same coins back for 30-50% less. I'd say that was a big help. The MS64 $2-1/2 Libs I sold at $1450 are now back under $1000 or near historic lows (ie time to buy again). I bought little to no gold after it started to ascend beyond $600 for the first time. The fact that gold went to $730 and fell means little to me since I never bought any near those levels. In fact gold's average price in 2007 is the highest ever on record (higher than 2006 and higher than 1979 or 1980). The long term chart is still decidedly upward. While I won't bet against the US dollar over the next 12 months, I will bet FOR gold. What we just saw the past 2 weeks was a hint of the bigger financial mess that is coming. The FED stuck their head into the first big leak in the dam. They have 2 arms and legs left. Did this permanently fix the credit markets? Problem now solved?
Gold has been a good 6 year hold, and will continue. While S&P and DOW have been losing ground to M3 and inflation, gold has exceeded the inflation rate by increasing 2.6X over the past 6 years. The DOW, S&P, and the Dollar have lost much ground to inflation. This is not about a 1 to 12 month race, it's about a 10-15 year cycle. It is expected that gold will have extended down cycles at times. And it's impossible to know when it will break out. If one pulls out to play the S&P for 12 months, that just may be the time when gold goes up 50%. From here the moves in gold (and everything else) get more violent. A $50 rise in the gold price in one week is coming. I never said gold will go up 500-1000%. I have said that it "needs" to go $2000 or so just to balance the 400% inflation that has occurred since 1982. If gold ever decides to balance out M3 (13X increase since 1982) then look out above.
While I have no idea what gold will be worth down the road I do know that I'll bet on gold rather than the dollar based on the trends of the past 6 years that are still fully intact. Until gold gets blasted to well under it's long term trends, it's a better long term bet than the dollar. Of course their will be counter moves in the dollar, but they can end at any time. I'd rather stay with gold until financial market sanity has been restored or Dow/Gold ratio finally hits 1:1. With $400 TRILL in OTC derivatives risk (mostly interest rate related) financial Armageddon is only a key-stroke away.
While you won't "bet against" the dollar over the next 12 months, I will put my money where my mouth is and bet FOR gold. Not betting against something is hardly much of a risk. I would however bet against housing if I was so inclined as it has about a zero chance of coming back anytime soon. But I'd rather bet for things I have conviction in: precious metals and rare coins. It's no secret that CD's (bank interest) out-performed the stock market from 1966 to 1982. We all can pick any time-frame where bank interest has outperformed any market for significant periods of time.
> It means that investors dumped the asset that had the least long term value in order to preserve their position in other assets. Othewise they would have liquidiated their margin securities and held their gold.
Your point is wrong, because it is based on something you may not know...it is very easy to have a margin call that is more than every single penny you have currently on the table. In other words, your position is liquidated and you still owe more money.
BTW, you get liquidated if your net worth is under $50,000,000 or so; the big boys get rescued by the taxpayer via "emergency bailouts that will save the economy!!!" by the Corporate Shills known as the government.
> Funny we spent 40 years fighting the Soviet Socialist who are now less socialist than we have become. It broke them and it will break the US.
This is true. The current model of the US Government is socialism for the rich and dog-eat-dog if you are worth less than $50,000,000. If there were true socialism for everybody, not just for the rich, maybe the middle class would have a chance.
>>>>>Actually that is only a 6.65% rate of interest. You have to use the compound interest tables to accurately figure it.
no no....deals are figures on annual rate of return....this % is based on risk....if you do a buld to suit for mac donalds obviuosly they command a lower rate.....but for my buildings 12% is the norm
so here is the math
12% x 200,000 is 24,000 a year in rent on a triple net basis....all maintinence is done by the tennant
now 25 years alter we start a new lease
replacement cost is used and is now 1,000,000
@12 % thats 120,000 a year...for a building that cost 200,000
and that my friend is indeed 60% return cash on cash
....the reality of it is the 200,000 building was built with 20% down with a 10 year note......40,000 down...now yielding 120,000 per year is actually 300% return on cash. every year now.....and the last time i looked the banks were paying about 5 % for cds....sure am glad i didnt put my money into a cd..............with 5% vrs 300%....i think that 60 times better dont you
i am clueless as to where you came up with your figures of 6.65%
monsterman
my goal is to find the monsters and i go where they are but i sometimes miss some.... so if you have any and want to sell IM THE BUYER FOR THEM!!!
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
<< <i>for all those guys raving about thier trading accounts
how do the look this week? ready to give back your unrealized profits?
CASH is king now. >>
Why do you assume profits are unrealized? In order for one to trade, he must BOTH buy and sell. And money can be made on the downside as well as the upside. I can understand how you are skeptical and/or confused. Millions have tried to trade but only a few thousand can actually do it. Just like in Monstermans case, millions of kids are athletes but only a few thousand are professionals.
And to tell you the truth, my returns this month $uck. I could have just shorted BSC at 120, covered and went long at 100, sold and shorted at 120, covered and bought at 100, and sold again at 120. Thats 5 moves of nearly 20% in just 2 weeks. The guys/gals who manage Goldman's REAL money, do this all the time.
<< <i>Gold didnt go down as much because it hadnt gone up in the last 2 years. >>
Let's see, I moved an IRA from stocks to gold in Sept 2005. My 30K bought 40oz of gold at 438 an 17 bars of silver at 702. Its now worth about 48K even with the fall in silver.
I don't think I would have done as well in stocks.
As far as "cash is king", maybe for the moment. Ill bet Bernanke creates a lot of "kings" over the next 6 months.
<< <i>The guys/gals who manage Goldman's REAL money, do this all the time. >>
How about this
Wed eve: Fed Gov Poole says, Fed will not cut rate unless there is a "calamity"
Thurs AM; Little guys like you and me dump, Dow down 300
Thurs PM: Dow rebounded 300 points (who bought??)
Fri AM : Fed Cuts rate
Now tell me you dont think Paulson let his friends at Goldman know the Fed would meet soon to vote on rate cut . They moved in and bought big on Thurs PM to sell on Friday.
Insider info is king. The little guy gets only a small piece of the rigged "stock market" pie.
<< <i>The guys/gals who manage Goldman's REAL money, do this all the time. >>
How about this
Wed eve: Fed Gov Poole says, Fed will not cut rate unless there is a "calamity"
Thurs AM; Little guys like you and me dump, Dow down 300
Thurs PM: Dow rebounded 300 points (who bought??)
Fri AM : Fed Cuts rate
Now tell me you dont think Paulson let his friends at Goldman know the Fed would meet soon to vote on rate cut . They moved in and bought big on Thurs PM to sell on Friday.
Insider info is king. The little guy gets only a small piece of the rigged "stock market" pie. >>
What I learned from this is that the Fed is going to protect the stock market ,this is a new policy and probably will be to the detriment of the dollar and to the benefit of gold and other "hard assets" as well as the stock market. I started nibbling on gold stocks on Friday ....we will see
The FED isn't protecting the stock market. That would mean you and I as well. They are protecting the lousy trades made by their partners in crime (Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Citigroup, and other large investment houses). They could care less if the little guy gets slaughtered along the way. They want to ensure that the big banks who made all the stupid credit bets can continue to push their near worthless junk around a while longer.
You hit it right on the numbers roadrunner. Screw the little guy and take care of the big boys. They always did and they will always continue to do it. They are protecting those pigs who were lending money to everybody for houses that were so over inflated. Take care.
<< <i>The FED isn't protecting the stock market. That would mean you and I as well. They are protecting the lousy trades made by their partners in crime (Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Citigroup, and other large investment houses). They could care less if the little guy gets slaughtered along the way. They want to ensure that the big banks who made all the stupid credit bets can continue to push their near worthless junk around a while longer.
roadrunner >>
I am just trying to benefit in some way from their Shenanigans...I dont say that my read is correct but I am acting on it ....we will see!!
<< <i>“I intend to drive truckloads of food to food banks on a regular basis,”
I for one would like to hear more about how a truck farm works? >>
A truck farm is another name for a vegetable farm, though it's not done like a garden. It's done on a production basis and vegetables will produce a much larger profit than any sort of grain crop. It is also more labor intensive. The name "truck farm" is derived from the fact that you have to drive truckloads to the market on a very regular basis, vegetables won't sit in a silo and wait. However, profit isn't our motive here.
My other half already owns a buffalo ranch. We are negotiating with all three of her neighbors to buy them out for the extra acreage. Neighbors who are aged and wanting to get away as the toll of time and market competition has worn them out.
We intend to grow livestock and free range chickens as our source of income, though if it all fails completely, we will still be able to live comfortably for the rest of our lives.
It's a goal that I and she have been working towards for years on our own. Now there is a we involved and that makes it all the more practical. There is a lot to be made in free range chickens and we can do 30,000 meat birds in a year here in South Texas. At an average profit of $5-6 per bird today, that alone will serve us well. That's just the starting point. Nearly all of the other food will be given away. You can't give a food bank a live chicken.
The blueprints are already finished on an "off the grid" home. We can produce all the electricity we will need for everything and the power company will be sending us a check for a change.
Just a few more years and the dream will be in action. Not only will we be secure, but the idea of giving back appeals to both of us so strongly, that that will be our main goal.
Not trying to sound noble here, nothing like that at all. It's just something we've always wanted to do and now there are two of us who make a great team to accomplish this goal.
In the meantime, I'll still be dealing in silver and she's doing well in her investments, primarily commodities thanks to my input. She's already thanking me as otherwise she would have taken a real bath recently. And yes, I did get her to put a decent % into precious metals.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>The FED isn't protecting the stock market. That would mean you and I as well. They are protecting the lousy trades made by their partners in crime (Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Citigroup, and other large investment houses). They could care less if the little guy gets slaughtered along the way. They want to ensure that the big banks who made all the stupid credit bets can continue to push their near worthless junk around a while longer.
Only if he insists on being lead around by the nose, and never educates himself!
Look, you would think these small investors would get tired of getting whooped up on.
The little discount brokerage account I opened yesterday is more of an experiment than anything else. I know absolute nothing about trading stocks, or doing research on my own to figure out the market, but I think I can learn, and I will not be fighting the Fed and the boys in N.Y. Why not play their game if you know they are going to rig it?
How much money could an investor make just following behind these guys and picking up the crumbs?
If you could follow around behind cohodk, or some of the other traders here, and just do what they did, even a few hours, or the next day, later what could you pick up?
So maybe you would not do this,” my returns this month $uck. I could have just shorted BSC at 120, covered and went long at 100, sold and shorted at 120, covered and bought at 100, and sold again at 120. That’s 5 moves of nearly 20% in just 2 weeks.”
But maybe you could make 10% in a week after a little learning curve?
Yes, the ignorant, lazy, little guy who would rather drink beer all weekend and spend 12 hours watching football games is going to get screwed, but a big part of this is his own fault, don’t you think?
I have spent 6 hours on the discount brokerage site I signed up with this weekend, and this site is an amazing site. Anything you want to know about any listed company is just a click away. No pouring through hours of annual reports anymore, just ask a question and get the answer.
I have a changed my mind about this all being a big casino? NO it is, but there is an angle to play here, pick up the crumbs as the big boys manipulate the markets.
Nikkei up 2.3% and Australia up 2.6% in early trading. I think that Bernanke is trying to make the stock market the new cash cow the way that real estate was in the last 5 years
Please be careful with this trading endeavor. The are many sharks out there just waiting for new blood. The best advice I can give you is to do away with all emotion and do not get over confident. Be skeptical of everything and trust no one.
You will also find that it doesnt matter whether a company makes computer chips, potato chips or buffalo chips. If you are going to trade short term then it doesnt matter the fundamentals of a company. Bad stocks go up and good stocks go down. I never marry a stock, just a one night stand wham bam thank you mam. Make a trade and then go to the next. Do not look back. DO NOT BE AFRAID to take a loss. 1/2 my trades are losses, but they are tiny. Make up for the losses with bigger gains.
Let others' fear, apathy, greed, ignorance, arrogance, over-confidence be your friend.
You dont need to trade everyday. Pick your entry points and pounce.
> Nikkei up 2.3% and Australia up 2.6% in early trading.
Most likely this is due to unwinding of shorts that have arbitrage positions against S&P futures that had the "unexpected" surge on Friday. I still see nothing on the either the technical or fundamental side to get very bullish.
As other posters have noted, the market most likely had a rebound on Thursday because somebody was told the Fed would cut rates on Friday morning.
Kinda like that unusual (5x normal) put option volume on American and United a few days before 911.
When I managed servers on a trading floor on Wall Street I asked the senior metals trader what gold would do the rest of the week after he got a front page quote about Au in the Journal on Monday. Every single movement he told me for the rest of the week happened exactly as he told me it would.
> 12% x 200,000 is 24,000 a year in rent on a triple net basis....all maintinence is done by the tennant
Once again, I guess you don't understand the principle of compound interest.
Using your example where you start with a $200,000 property and are able to extract $24,000 from it every year...with an annual rate of return somewhere around 14.3%, the property will be worth $1,000,000 after 25 years.
“Please be careful with this trading endeavor. The are many sharks out there just waiting for new blood. The best advice I can give you is to do away with all emotion and do not get over confident. Be skeptical of everything and trust no one.
You will also find that it doesn’t matter whether a company makes computer chips, potato chips or buffalo chips. If you are going to trade short term then it doesn’t matter the fundamentals of a company. Bad stocks go up and good stocks go down. I never marry a stock, just a one-night stand wham bam thank you mam. Make a trade and then go to the next. Do not look back. DO NOT BE AFRAID to take a loss. 1/2 my trades are losses, but they are tiny. Make up for the losses with bigger gains.
Let others' fear, apathy, greed, ignorance, arrogance, over-confidence be your friend.
You don’t need to trade everyday. Pick your entry points and pounce.”
Cohodk,
All your advice is well taken, thank you!
Unlike a few out there, I am going into this with my eyes wide open. My account will be very small, I am looking at this as a gambling game, and I will not bet more than I can afford to lose.
From my personal point of view I have pushed my coin collections, and PM accumulations, about as far as I feel comfortable with, and this is just a new game.
One thing I have in my favor is I know I am ignorant in this area; so that alone with keep me very cautious, at least for a few months Ha ha.
Here is one strategy I have in mind, please tell me what you think.
We are having these big swings in the price of oil every few month’s right?
Every time the price of oil drops all the big guys move money out of the oil sector and the price of many oil companies shares drop, right?
As an example, what if one bought one hundred shares of AAA Oil Company at $25 in one of the dips, as the price of oil went up the price of shares would rise right?
When the price of oil starts to drop, or there is selling pressure caused by some other event, you could sell the stock short 100 shares and stay in the middle until you determined if the trend was really down. If the trend was in fact down, one could keep the short, sell the long, and let the price drop.
When the price bottomed one could then take profits on the short and replace the 100 shares plus. If things did not go the way you expected you could sell whichever position was not moving and only pay these tiny commissions.
My crazy idea here is to eventually own the shares at a very low basis, therefore increasing the rate of return.
I am going to go into this with two basic theories, one that from here on out the markets are going to be very volatile, and two that the big powers will not let the market fail.
Lets see what the prices of some of these oil companies do in the coming hurricane! The news should tell us whose rigs will get shut down, and what will happen to the price of oil, and gasoline.
If we had applied this to mortgage companies over the last few weeks, our rate of return on our shorts would have been spectacular.
Here is our answer on oil stocks. “Oil prices drop; Dean seen missing Gulf facilities Hurricane lashes Jamaica and Caymans, heads for Yucatan Peninsula”
Here is what the big money is thinking about rate cuts that would drive the stock market up!
Marc Faber Ltd., oversees $2.1 billion in assets at Daiwa SB Investments Ltd.
Should the Standard and Poor's 500 Index drop below 1,400 the Fed is likely to reduce the overnight lending rate, Faber said. If the S&P rises above 1,500 it won't cut the rate, he said. The S&P 500 climbed 2.5 percent to 1,445.94 on Aug. 17. Still, it's down 6.9 percent from a record close set on July 19. S&P 500 futures expiring in September rose 4.6 to 1,454.5 as of 11:42 a.m. in London. No Dollar Collapse ``They're driven by asset markets, their policies, which is a mistake in the first place,'' said Faber,
I hope some of you sold this baby short the day I posted the news?
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Sentinel Management Group Inc., a U.S. futures commission merchant whose decision to freeze client accounts on Tuesday helped roil global financial markets, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection late on Friday.
Lets see how badly the banking cartel screws us over today. If this keeps up inflation during Jimmy Carter's administration will look tame in comparison.
"Of all the contrivances for cheating the laboring classes of mankind, none has been more effective than that which deludes them with paper money." – Daniel Webster
Here is one strategy I have in mind, please tell me what you think.
It's critical to keep in mind what timeframe you want to work with. Hourly? Daily? Weekly? Or follow intermediate-term trends using 200 day averages? Each has advantages and disadvantages. I don't think it's wise to vary the timeframe.
Then apply the sound advice of being unemotional. To me I MUST know that investments are neither Good nor Evil.
"They" want people to think that investments are "good" and "evil." They want us to like stocks which are labeled "high tech" and dislike stocks such as oil and gas, and Gold. You can profit off of this mentality.
With a presidential campaign coming, these emotions will be played heavily. Could be healthcare, or energy, or something new.
All I want to know is when MCI/Worldcom will be reporting earnings. Housing down, Lowes and Home Depot beat the street... now where did I put that deed to the Brooklyn Bridge...
Over the years I have learned that we are mere pawns in this game. They have the money and the inside info and at best you might be able to hold your own. Even the great Cramer still picks even with the market. I think its a rigged game.
My best game is to find a stock with huge P/E and short . This often takes a long time. Krispy Kreme did well for me and Im short on Amazon at 84 but I expect that to take another six months to play out.
I once tried to discuss a companies financials with a successful trader who's answer was "they don't matter", "it's all a game of pump and dump." So far that looks pretty acurate.
Yes...I saw that action on Thursday and yes, the move off the Fed cut started Thursday...not Friday morning. Why do I say that? Simple! There was massive illegal insider trading on Thursday...but no one will get caught because as usual, no one is watching. The evidence: out of nowhere, FINANCIALS were bought in big blocks...and the Fed struck the next morning. I would love to hear the tapes of the Bernanke/Paulson phone calls before the rate cut. THE NEWS WAS LEAKED...CASE CLOSED! Do you think anyone is going to audit the "out of nowhere" massive FINANCIAL stock buying? Doubt it! Even people that are not skeptical have to raise their eyebrows at Thursday's action. Did you notice that on Friday, there was not a shred of bad news announced by anyone? HMMMM!
Some, perhaps much, of what the Fed has had to do in recent days is the resullt of their past decisions to raise interest rates. They were so afraid of low rates spurring inflation that they failed to properly assess the impact that their actions would have in the mortgage markets. In other words they overlooked the fragility of the housing market and relationship of low interest mortgages to the ability of many new the borrowers to pay. They forgot that buying a house is a big stretch for most people, and that to get into the market many many buyers were taking ARMs that they could just barely afford at the introductory rate--so once the rates adjusted upwards to the new levels fixed by the Fed, a lot of people just could not pay the added debt service cost.
As an aside, I remain convinced that raising interest rates contributes to inflation to the extent that commercial borrowers are able to pass their added costs on to consumers. At some point that can no longer be done, but it may be because the borrower is being priced out of the market by foreign competition. No good for our economy. The hard part is achieving the right balance, and by the time the Fed sees that real world results varied from their models, someone has already been hurt.
I'm predicting Bin Ladden will nuke NYC and just when we're recovering from that an asteroid will strike the planet. Nothing to worry about though. Whatever you do just DON'T PANIC and sell your stocks. That would disrupt the vacation plans of wealthy people in The Hamptons. They might have to stop tanning their buns early this year, and most of them are already pale enough as it is. THE HORROR!
<< <i>There was massive illegal insider trading on Thursday...but no one will get caught because as usual, no one is watching
I wish that jacka$$ would provide some evidence to support his absurd accusation. >>
Massive illegal insider trading??
That sort of thing will usually raise eyebrows and bring in an investigation. A little here and there goes on, I'm sure. But not anything "Massive".
I remain skeptical.
This thread skips around from time to time, but overall is one of the best ever, IMHO. Lots of useful info here.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Just look at Thursdays DOW chart. Why would a market in a freefall suddenly turn 180 and go back up 300 points on no good news at all??
Some people knew what was going to happen on Friday. If you don't believe that then you really don't understand how Goldman Sachs made 30+billion last year. Do you really think Paulson left the job as GS CEO for the paycheck of the Treasury Secretary? Do you have any idea how many former GS employees now have top US finance jobs??
<< <i>That sort of thing will usually raise eyebrows and bring in an investigation >>
Would you please name the last major investigation like that, oh, I forgot, they got Martha Stewart.
Comments
your killin me
>>>save your pro-illegal diatribe for those that have had their identities stolen by illegals so they can get these jobs that "Americans won't do". Identity theft is the fastest growing crime in the US. Do you think that these are only a result of those people stupid enough to give their info to those overseas in scams? the answer is a resounding NO. Illegal immigrants need papers to work, or at least a valid SS # and ID. where do you think they get these from? stolen IDs are an epidemic problem these last few years.>>>>
you can buy all the documents you need at any flea market in any town....so no they dont need stolen docs....btw indenity theft is indeed a large problem however you are in error when you think its for documentation...try credit card theft....plain and simple
btw employers defend themselves ( justifably so by saying we are employers not fake documentaion experts)
the fact is your governemnt let the immigration happen as it is in your best interest
Those of you that apologize for the illegality of these people, while chastising me for earning a good living and enjoy luxuries is silly at best. Since you're talking about mantras, try this one on: if they came here illegally, more than likely are doing jobs using fake documents (again, illegal), why should we trust that they won't commit further crimes and expect them to be upstanding citizens? >>>>
brilliant logic........not...ok you win...lets ship them all out...right now
here is exactly what will happen
inflation will roar like never before.....in fact it will be runaway
inflation....you will get many raises...more raises...and more raises...but the rich will get more than you...as they always do....and when the big mac gets to be 20 dollars and the dollar menu goes to 5 dollar menu .....i hope you can cover the quintupling of all your costs with your tripling of your salary
do the math pal!!!...you lose...i win
monsterman
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
<< <i>Gold didnt go down as much because it hadnt gone up in the last 2 years. Even after a 10% hiccup in equities it has still outperformed gold over the last year.
The bottom line is that gold, silver, oil, corn, equities, bonds, ect, are nothing more than trading vehicles(assets) that should NEVER be soley relied upon to secure financial freedom. Each asset class has its day in the sun and that is when you should own it. Stocks were great to hold in the 90's, metals outperformed from 2000 to 2005. Even real estate got artificially inflated and was a great place to be.
This is almost comical. Gold surely gets no respect. Now it doesn't perform well because it hadn't gone up "enough" in the past 16 months. Does it matter why? All that does matter is that it only went down a few percent compared to the overall stock market.
When gold performs in the short term, the naysayers complain about the poor "long term performance." When gold performs year over year and outkicks the S&P by a mile over 6 years, then the short term performance is hammered. Just can't win with some people. When it performs well again in the short term, be assured you will hear about it's poor 20, 30 and 50 year performance again....like that has any bearing on how it does from 2001-present.
Gold boogers will find something wrong with anything they do not personally believe in. I'm sure gold's performance in the 1970's is problematic because it went down 50% in 1974-1976. Yet it's overall performance from 1971 to 1980 was dramatic (8X or more).
That while stocks went absolutely nowhere for the entire decade.
Bottom line is that over the past 6 years, no stock market index has outperformed gold or gold shares. We will be saying the same thing at the 10 year point as well.
So what does Cohdk recommend over the next 12 months as surely it's not gold or commodities. I want to be here in August 2008 to compare the outcomes.
roadrunner >>
RR,
I have never said gold or commodities have never been a good investment.
What is not comical is the FACT that those who have held gold expecting Armegeddon over the past year have been left in the dust by equities. Pne could even say that the collapse of the mortgage market and the unwinding of the carry trade has been financial Armegeddon. Gold hasnt helped you one bit. In fact, I would have been better off just collecting interest in a bank savings account.
You, yourself wrote in a reply to Cladking, that gold is not a great long term hold. You said that it is best for only a several year hold. Well, perhaps that several year hold was from 2001 to 2006? I know you firmly believe that gold will return 500-1000% over the next (10) years. It is great to see your conviction, but in truth, you have absolutely no idea what gold will be worth in 10 years, or 5, or even 6 months.
I try not to make recommendations on these boards because my investment time horizon can be usually be measured by a stopwatch. My style does not work for 99.99% of the populace but it works for me. My trading account is up 20% this month. This is real dollars-greenbacks. You may not like dollars, but the gas station, Dunkin Donuts, the Rennaisance Festival, and a restuarant all accepted them gladly today. Although, I did not try, I imagine all would have looked at me quite strangely, or perhaps even called the authorities, if I tried to pay with a Maple Leaf.
Some people think gold or metals are the cure all for Doomsday. They are entitled to their opinion. I believe it is nothing more than a trading vehicle that outperforms other assets at certain intervals. Some think equities are the cure all for Doomsday. Again, I believe it is nothing more than a trading vehicle that outperforms other assets at certain intervals.
Some people think the dollar is going to be more worthless than Italian Lira. I, for one, would never bet against America.
To get to your question. At any given time you will find me heavily invested in cash. I invest like a sniper, taking advantage of arrogance, fear, greed and ignorance. I am not concerned about the wealth of the rest of the world, or even my neighbor, for I have only to answer to my family. No one is looking out for me except myself. I try to give a few hints/ideas to the board through the use of technical analysis--voodoo to many. But then again, arent we all afraid of what we dont understand?
But, for you, I will make an exception so that I can go on record. I would not want to bet against the dollar over the next 12 months. This does not mean I do not like gold or other metals, as I have said many times that I do not believe gold is as closely tied to the dollar as you do. I will reitterate--I would not bet against the dollar over the next 12 months.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
>>>>Some people think the dollar is going to be more worthless than Italian Lira. I, for one, would never bet against America.
that is not possible....but here is the real deal
1) all goverments inflate....brazil,argentina,peru ect have all been inflating for years...and they all have seeked out the dollar for safety
2) the are 24 hours in a day and as the world modernizes more productivity is coming out of other countries than ever before
3) the growth is not here in the us like before...the baby boomers have already done their thing
4) 3rd world is the future growth area
all this bodes bad for the dollar....as they are not inflating like they have been...yet we have been like never before
now lets visit inflation...its simply the gov printing more dollars than the people produce aka gdp.....in the 3rd world they are indeed producing more themselves than ever in the history of the world...and so are we...however the % is closing and we are losing our lead
I would not bet against the dollar over the next 12 months.>>>>i would and have....and its simple
are you aware that most of the gold producers in the world have dumped their hedge books????and betting everything on gold going up..insanity unless you are absolutely sure the next 3 to 4 years is a bummer for the dollar
and about the stock market...hope you know its been going down for 5 years now...its not going up!!!but rather straight down
in order to figure this out please convert your dollars to euors...or gold...or the looney...or the pound....and you will see its going straight down
my friend dogy thinks he is doing well....and gets a 3 % merit raise and a 2.5 cost of livng raise every year...but the fact is inflation has been over 10% for the last 2 years now...ask your wife...as the 100 dollar bag of groceries has been getting smaller and smaller
a 100k in jan 06 will have the buying power of 70 something christmas 07
me i love it .........as conrete which last for decades is now 90 per yard yet i paid 32 for mine...my steel buildings now cost 500% more than a decade ago....and yes i have raised my prices way out in front of inflation.....and yes my bank debt is now being paid back with much cheaper and earier to come by dollars...that is how the rich get richer whichis why we are in the highest tax brakets
monsterman
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
<< <i>
my friend dogy thinks he is doing well....and gets a 3 % merit raise and a 2.5 cost of livng raise every year...but the fact is inflation has been over 10% for the last 2 years now...ask your wife...as the 100 dollar bag of groceries has been getting smaller and smaller
me i love it .........as conrete which last for decades is now 90 per yard yet i paid 32 for mine...my steel buildings now cost 500% more than a decade ago....and yes i have raised my prices way out in front of inflation.....and yes my bank debt is now being paid back with much cheaper and earier to come by dollars...that is how the rich get richer whichis why we are in the highest tax brakets
monsterman >>
first off, don't pretend to know what i make or what my net worth is by your drivel of "merit raises and COL raises" like you're speaking down to me. Even though you may be in the highest tax "braket", it may surprise you that me and others on this board may indeed make and have more money than you but don't feel the need to brag about it in every other post. The fact that you advocate and use illegal labor doesn't make you any kind of capitalist American hero , it simply shows you are willing to sell our country out to the lowest labor bidder.
<< <i>"You didn't do too well in math, did you? 55 + 30 = 85. "
Thanks Perry, but I think I have it!
She was going to keep investing until age 85 and then start spending the money!
I made the ASSUMPTION she would not keep investing until she kealed over, maybe I am wrong, perhaps she will >>
You would be surprised how many people save and invest until they die. Many prople are in denial when it comes to their own mortality.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i> Some people think gold or metals are the cure all for Doomsday. They are entitled to their opinion. I believe it is nothing more than a trading vehicle that outperforms other assets at certain intervals. Some think equities are the cure all for Doomsday. Again, I believe it is nothing more than a trading vehicle that outperforms other assets at certain intervals.
Some people think the dollar is going to be more worthless than Italian Lira. I, for one, would never bet against America.
I would not want to bet against the dollar over the next 12 months. This does not mean I do not like gold or other metals, as I have said many times that I do not believe gold is as closely tied to the dollar as you do. I will reitterate--I would not bet against the dollar over the next 12 months. >>
Codohk, I think your analysis is right on point. Gold is a commodity which, like other commodities, has seen a strong run up in prices. But there's nothing about gold that makes it unique. All of the things attributed to it by gold bugs are also true, to varying degrees, for other metals and for other "hard" assets. That's why I posted earlier that in a credit crunch, asset prices (like gold) usually deflate and cash becomes more expensive.
For the record, over a month ago I sold all my mutual fund stock holdings and moved the money into a "safe" bond fund. This was based on my belief that we are entering an economic slowdown, based on low Q1 2007 GDP numbers and repeated sub-100,000 growth in new jobs, which is lower than the rate of labor market growth (~ 160,000 new jobs/month are needed just to keep the unemployment rate flat given new entrants into labor pool). Not based on the subprime mess, which I didn't predict, though I think it will have an effect on an already weak economy. Have seen a modest return since then, up about 1.5% on the month on the bond fund. But the mutual funds I sold have all lost 10% or more. In the last recession, most bond funds did great while stocks got pummeled. The key is to ride them up and then buy back into stock funds when stocks are beat up.
I also don't bet against the US, in the long run. At the moment, I think the US dollar is oversold and is too cheap.
So most of us have figured out on our own, about a Minsky moment, so what’s next?
”Hyman Minsky, who died more than a decade ago, spent much of his career
advancing the idea that financial systems are inherently susceptible to
bouts of speculation that, if they last long enough, end in crises.
At its core, the Minsky view was straightforward: When times are good,
investors take on risk; the longer times stay good, the more risk they take
on, until they've taken on too much. Eventually, they reach a point where
the cash generated by their assets no longer is sufficient to pay off the
mountains of debt they took on to acquire them. Losses on such speculative
assets prompt lenders to call in their loans. "This is likely to lead to a
collapse of asset values," Mr. Minsky wrote.
When investors are forced to sell even their less-speculative positions to
make good on their loans, markets spiral lower and create a severe demand
for cash. At that point, the Minsky moment has arrived.
"We are in the midst of a Minsky moment, bordering on a Minsky meltdown,"
says Paul McCulley, an economist and fund manager at Pacific Investment
Management Co., the world's largest bond-fund manager, in an email exchange.
The housing market is a case in point, says Investment Technology Group Inc.
economist Robert Barbera, who first met Mr. Minsky in the late 1980s. When
home buyers were expected to have a down payment of 10% or 20% to qualify
for a mortgage, and to provide income documentation that showed they'd be
able to make payments, there was minimal risk. But as home prices rose, and
speculators entered the market, lenders relaxed their guard and began
offering loans with no money down and little or no documentation.
Once home prices stalled and, in many of the more-speculative markets, fell,
there was a big problem.
"If you're lending to home buyers with 20% down and house prices fall by 2%,
so what?" Mr. Barbera says. If most of a lender's portfolio is tied up in
loans to buyers who "don't put anything down and house prices fall by 2%,
you're bankrupt," he says.
Steven Fazzari, an economics professor at Washington University, says that
Mr. Minsky would have supported the Federal Reserve's recent move to provide
cash and cut the rate it charges banks on loans from its discount window to
try to avert a financial crisis that could spill over to the economy. But he
would probably be worried, too, that the moves might be bailing out
investors who would all too soon be speculating again.”
Setting aside our political differences, and those concerning illegal immigration, and the like, we are basically in this thread to make money to buy coins and to protect our families, so what’s next?
It appears to me that with the current amount of speculation in all the world markets, and the fact that most all of us would agree that governments around the world have no morals about lying to us about inflation, and no scruples about manipulating markets of all kinds, it is up to us as individuals to protect ourselves.
We each have our points to be made about various investments, but no one here really has all their money JUST in Gold, or JUST in Real Estate, Or JUST in stocks.
It also appears in today’s fast moving world those that do the best job of growing their family wealth, must work a little harder, think a little longer, and move a little faster.
The days of making a pile of money and just letting it sit in bonds, or cash, and watching it grow are GONE! No matter what pile of cash you have earned in a lifetime of work and savings the government is going to eat you alive with taxes and inflation.
People have gotten very lazy with their money. They have relied on money managers, Funds, ETF’s etc. to do their work and thinking for them. That has got to stop if they are going to protect their family wealth.
We have all got to become a little more like cohodk; we must become more nimble, as well as more educated.
I opened an online discount brokerage account yesterday, and I see no reason that we cannot use what we are learning here to make money in the stock market as long as we use common sense and conservative values.
Here are some of the rules I think I will start with.
I am going to buy some companies that pay dividends at a rate around the current C.D. rate.
I am going to pick companies that have heavy, paid for, hard assets.
I am going to buy companies in areas that people must have to get by in life.
I am going to buy very large companies that will be more likely to buy back shares than issue new options and shares to pay management.
I am going to buy companies that make piles of cash in worldwide markets and do not need to play foolish borrowing games, unless it is to buy more hard assets.
I am only going to buy stocks that I do my own research on, do my own homework on.
If the market has a “Minsky moment,” and the leverage fools must sell my stocks to cover their arse, and the market drops, I am going to add to that position.
Putting it quite simply I am going to find a way to make at least a 10% return each year so that my excess capital does not become toilet paper.
No I am not selling my Gold, or real estate, or coins, or bonds, or anything else,
and yes I am going to use all the sharp minds here every week to keep me informed so I don’t miss anything, and I will be waiting for those Minsky moments to buy more.
Sure gold has helped me over the past year. In fact I sold nearly all my MS63 and MS64 type gold in 2006 and am now buying the same coins back for 30-50% less. I'd say that was a big help. The MS64 $2-1/2 Libs I sold at $1450 are now back under $1000 or near historic lows (ie time to buy again). I bought little to no gold after it started to ascend beyond $600 for the first time. The fact that gold went to $730 and fell means little to me since I never bought any near those levels. In fact gold's average price in 2007 is the highest ever on record (higher than 2006 and higher than 1979 or 1980). The long term chart is still decidedly upward. While I won't bet against the US dollar over the next 12 months, I will bet FOR gold. What we just saw the past 2 weeks was a hint of the bigger financial mess that is coming. The FED stuck their head into the first big leak in the dam. They have 2 arms and legs left. Did this permanently fix the credit markets? Problem now solved?
Gold has been a good 6 year hold, and will continue. While S&P and DOW have been losing ground to M3 and inflation, gold has exceeded the inflation rate by increasing 2.6X over the past 6 years. The DOW, S&P, and the Dollar have lost much ground to inflation. This is not about a 1 to 12 month race, it's about a 10-15 year cycle. It is expected that gold will have extended down cycles at times. And it's impossible to know when it will break out. If one pulls out to play the S&P for 12 months, that just may be the time when gold goes up 50%. From here the moves in gold (and everything else) get more violent. A $50 rise in the gold price in one week is coming. I never said gold will go up 500-1000%. I have said that it "needs" to go $2000 or so just to balance the 400% inflation that has occurred since 1982. If gold ever decides to balance out M3 (13X increase since 1982) then look out above.
While I have no idea what gold will be worth down the road I do know that I'll bet on gold rather than the dollar based on the trends of the past 6 years that are still fully intact. Until gold gets blasted to well under it's long term trends, it's a better long term bet than the dollar. Of course their will be counter moves in the dollar, but they can end at any time. I'd rather stay with gold until financial market sanity has been restored or Dow/Gold ratio finally hits 1:1.
With $400 TRILL in OTC derivatives risk (mostly interest rate related)
financial Armageddon is only a key-stroke away.
While you won't "bet against" the dollar over the next 12 months, I will put my money where my mouth is and bet FOR gold. Not betting against something is hardly much of a risk. I would however bet against housing if I was so inclined as it has about a zero chance of coming back anytime soon. But I'd rather bet for things I have conviction in: precious metals and rare coins. It's no secret that CD's (bank interest) out-performed the stock market from 1966 to 1982. We all can pick any time-frame where bank interest has outperformed any market for significant periods of time.
roadrunner
Your point is wrong, because it is based on something you may not know...it is very easy to have a margin call that is more than every single penny you have currently on the table. In other words, your position is liquidated and you still owe more money.
BTW, you get liquidated if your net worth is under $50,000,000 or so; the big boys get rescued by the taxpayer via "emergency bailouts that will save the economy!!!" by the Corporate Shills known as the government.
Actually that is only a 6.65% rate of interest. You have to use the compound interest tables to accurately figure it.
This is true. The current model of the US Government is socialism for the rich and dog-eat-dog if you are worth less than $50,000,000. If there were true socialism for everybody, not just for the rich, maybe the middle class would have a chance.
how do the look this week? ready to give back your unrealized profits?
CASH is king now.
>>>>>Actually that is only a 6.65% rate of interest. You have to use the compound interest tables to accurately figure it.
no no....deals are figures on annual rate of return....this % is based on risk....if you do a buld to suit for mac donalds obviuosly they command a lower rate.....but for my buildings 12% is the norm
so here is the math
12% x 200,000 is 24,000 a year in rent on a triple net basis....all maintinence is done by the tennant
now 25 years alter we start a new lease
replacement cost is used and is now 1,000,000
@12 % thats 120,000 a year...for a building that cost 200,000
and that my friend is indeed 60% return cash on cash
....the reality of it is the 200,000 building was built with 20% down with a 10 year note......40,000 down...now yielding 120,000 per year is actually 300% return on cash. every year now.....and the last time i looked the banks were paying about 5 % for cds....sure am glad i didnt put my money into a cd..............with 5% vrs 300%....i think that 60 times better dont you
i am clueless as to where you came up with your figures of 6.65%
monsterman
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
<< <i>for all those guys raving about thier trading accounts
how do the look this week? ready to give back your unrealized profits?
CASH is king now. >>
As long as it is Euros, the dollar was worth 1.35 euros not so long ago now it is only worth .74 cents
<< <i>for all those guys raving about thier trading accounts
how do the look this week? ready to give back your unrealized profits?
CASH is king now. >>
Why do you assume profits are unrealized? In order for one to trade, he must BOTH buy and sell. And money can be made on the downside as well as the upside. I can understand how you are skeptical and/or confused. Millions have tried to trade but only a few thousand can actually do it. Just like in Monstermans case, millions of kids are athletes but only a few thousand are professionals.
And to tell you the truth, my returns this month $uck. I could have just shorted BSC at 120, covered and went long at 100, sold and shorted at 120, covered and bought at 100, and sold again at 120. Thats 5 moves of nearly 20% in just 2 weeks. The guys/gals who manage Goldman's REAL money, do this all the time.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>for all those guys raving about thier trading accounts
how do the look this week? ready to give back your unrealized profits?
CASH is king now. >>
As long as it is Euros, the dollar was worth 1.35 euros not so long ago now it is only worth .74 cents >>
Buy low and sell high.
Or just do as the Fast Money 5 tell you on CNBC. Buy high and sell higher. LOL. I love those guys.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
not rant.......I sit in a corner, like little Jack Horner
and just,whimper and whine. I am sitting on my
cash , just watching and waiting..................I might
eat a jelly donut to help to pass the time.
Camelot
<< <i>Gold didnt go down as much because it hadnt gone up in the last 2 years. >>
Let's see, I moved an IRA from stocks to gold in Sept 2005. My 30K bought 40oz of gold at 438 an 17 bars of silver at 702. Its now worth about 48K even with the fall in silver.
I don't think I would have done as well in stocks.
As far as "cash is king", maybe for the moment. Ill bet Bernanke creates a lot of "kings" over the next 6 months.
<< <i>The guys/gals who manage Goldman's REAL money, do this all the time. >>
How about this
Wed eve: Fed Gov Poole says, Fed will not cut rate unless there is a "calamity"
Thurs AM; Little guys like you and me dump, Dow down 300
Thurs PM: Dow rebounded 300 points (who bought??)
Fri AM : Fed Cuts rate
Now tell me you dont think Paulson let his friends at Goldman know the Fed would meet soon to vote on rate cut . They moved in and bought big on Thurs PM to sell on Friday.
Insider info is king. The little guy gets only a small piece of the rigged "stock market" pie.
<< <i>
<< <i>The guys/gals who manage Goldman's REAL money, do this all the time. >>
How about this
Wed eve: Fed Gov Poole says, Fed will not cut rate unless there is a "calamity"
Thurs AM; Little guys like you and me dump, Dow down 300
Thurs PM: Dow rebounded 300 points (who bought??)
Fri AM : Fed Cuts rate
Now tell me you dont think Paulson let his friends at Goldman know the Fed would meet soon to vote on rate cut . They moved in and bought big on Thurs PM to sell on Friday.
Insider info is king. The little guy gets only a small piece of the rigged "stock market" pie. >>
What I learned from this is that the Fed is going to protect the stock market ,this is a new policy and probably will be to the detriment of the dollar and to the benefit of gold and other "hard assets" as well as the stock market.
I started nibbling on gold stocks on Friday ....we will see
roadrunner
You hit it right on the numbers roadrunner. Screw the little guy and take care of the big boys. They always did and they will always continue to do it. They are protecting those pigs who were lending money to everybody for houses that were so over inflated. Take care.
eddye mack
<< <i>The FED isn't protecting the stock market. That would mean you and I as well. They are protecting the lousy trades made by their partners in crime (Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Citigroup, and other large investment houses). They could care less if the little guy gets slaughtered along the way. They want to ensure that the big banks who made all the stupid credit bets can continue to push their near worthless junk around a while longer.
roadrunner >>
I am just trying to benefit in some way from their Shenanigans...I dont say that my read is correct but I am acting on it ....we will see!!
<< <i>“I intend to drive truckloads of food to food banks on a regular basis,”
I for one would like to hear more about how a truck farm works? >>
A truck farm is another name for a vegetable farm, though it's not done like a garden. It's done on a production basis and vegetables will produce a much larger profit than any sort of grain crop. It is also more labor intensive. The name "truck farm" is derived from the fact that you have to drive truckloads to the market on a very regular basis, vegetables won't sit in a silo and wait. However, profit isn't our motive here.
My other half already owns a buffalo ranch. We are negotiating with all three of her neighbors to buy them out for the extra acreage. Neighbors who are aged and wanting to get away as the toll of time and market competition has worn them out.
We intend to grow livestock and free range chickens as our source of income, though if it all fails completely, we will still be able to live comfortably for the rest of our lives.
It's a goal that I and she have been working towards for years on our own. Now there is a we involved and that makes it all the more practical. There is a lot to be made in free range chickens and we can do 30,000 meat birds in a year here in South Texas. At an average profit of $5-6 per bird today, that alone will serve us well. That's just the starting point. Nearly all of the other food will be given away. You can't give a food bank a live chicken.
The blueprints are already finished on an "off the grid" home. We can produce all the electricity we will need for everything and the power company will be sending us a check for a change.
Just a few more years and the dream will be in action. Not only will we be secure, but the idea of giving back appeals to both of us so strongly, that that will be our main goal.
Not trying to sound noble here, nothing like that at all. It's just something we've always wanted to do and now there are two of us who make a great team to accomplish this goal.
In the meantime, I'll still be dealing in silver and she's doing well in her investments, primarily commodities thanks to my input. She's already thanking me as otherwise she would have taken a real bath recently. And yes, I did get her to put a decent % into precious metals.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>The FED isn't protecting the stock market. That would mean you and I as well. They are protecting the lousy trades made by their partners in crime (Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Citigroup, and other large investment houses). They could care less if the little guy gets slaughtered along the way. They want to ensure that the big banks who made all the stupid credit bets can continue to push their near worthless junk around a while longer.
roadrunner >>
youhitthenail
the little guy will suffer, long and slow
Thanks Deadhorse for the explanation.
"the little guy will suffer, long and slow"
Only if he insists on being lead around by the nose, and never educates himself!
Look, you would think these small investors would get tired of getting whooped up on.
The little discount brokerage account I opened yesterday is more of an experiment than anything else. I know absolute nothing about trading stocks, or doing research on my own to figure out the market, but I think I can learn, and I will not be fighting the Fed and the boys in N.Y. Why not play their game if you know they are going to rig it?
How much money could an investor make just following behind these guys and picking up the crumbs?
If you could follow around behind cohodk, or some of the other traders here, and just do what they did, even a few hours, or the next day, later what could you pick up?
So maybe you would not do this,” my returns this month $uck. I could have just shorted BSC at 120, covered and went long at 100, sold and shorted at 120, covered and bought at 100, and sold again at 120. That’s 5 moves of nearly 20% in just 2 weeks.”
But maybe you could make 10% in a week after a little learning curve?
Yes, the ignorant, lazy, little guy who would rather drink beer all weekend and spend 12 hours watching football games is going to get screwed, but a big part of this is his own fault, don’t you think?
I have spent 6 hours on the discount brokerage site I signed up with this weekend, and this site is an amazing site. Anything you want to know about any listed company is just a click away.
No pouring through hours of annual reports anymore, just ask a question and get the answer.
I have a changed my mind about this all being a big casino? NO it is, but there is an angle to play here, pick up the crumbs as the big boys manipulate the markets.
I think that Bernanke is trying to make the stock market the new cash cow the way that real estate was in the last 5 years
Please be careful with this trading endeavor. The are many sharks out there just waiting for new blood. The best advice I can give you is to do away with all emotion and do not get over confident. Be skeptical of everything and trust no one.
You will also find that it doesnt matter whether a company makes computer chips, potato chips or buffalo chips. If you are going to trade short term then it doesnt matter the fundamentals of a company. Bad stocks go up and good stocks go down.
I never marry a stock, just a one night stand wham bam thank you mam.
Make a trade and then go to the next. Do not look back.
DO NOT BE AFRAID to take a loss. 1/2 my trades are losses, but they are tiny. Make up for the losses with bigger gains.
Let others' fear, apathy, greed, ignorance, arrogance, over-confidence be your friend.
You dont need to trade everyday. Pick your entry points and pounce.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Most likely this is due to unwinding of shorts that have arbitrage positions against S&P futures that had the "unexpected" surge on Friday. I still see nothing on the either the technical or fundamental side to get very bullish.
As other posters have noted, the market most likely had a rebound on Thursday because somebody was told the Fed would cut rates on Friday morning.
Kinda like that unusual (5x normal) put option volume on American and United a few days before 911.
When I managed servers on a trading floor on Wall Street I asked the senior metals trader what gold would do the rest of the week after he got a front page quote about Au in the Journal on Monday. Every single movement he told me for the rest of the week happened exactly as he told me it would.
Once again, I guess you don't understand the principle of compound interest.
Using your example where you start with a $200,000 property and are able to extract $24,000 from it every year...with an annual rate of return somewhere around 14.3%, the property will be worth $1,000,000 after 25 years.
“Please be careful with this trading endeavor. The are many sharks out there just waiting for new blood. The best advice I can give you is to do away with all emotion and do not get over confident. Be skeptical of everything and trust no one.
You will also find that it doesn’t matter whether a company makes computer chips, potato chips or buffalo chips. If you are going to trade short term then it doesn’t matter the fundamentals of a company. Bad stocks go up and good stocks go down.
I never marry a stock, just a one-night stand wham bam thank you mam.
Make a trade and then go to the next. Do not look back.
DO NOT BE AFRAID to take a loss. 1/2 my trades are losses, but they are tiny. Make up for the losses with bigger gains.
Let others' fear, apathy, greed, ignorance, arrogance, over-confidence be your friend.
You don’t need to trade everyday. Pick your entry points and pounce.”
Cohodk,
All your advice is well taken, thank you!
Unlike a few out there, I am going into this with my eyes wide open. My account will be very small, I am looking at this as a gambling game, and I will not bet more than I can afford to lose.
From my personal point of view I have pushed my coin collections, and PM accumulations, about as far as I feel comfortable with, and this is just a new game.
One thing I have in my favor is I know I am ignorant in this area; so that alone with keep me very cautious, at least for a few months Ha ha.
Here is one strategy I have in mind, please tell me what you think.
We are having these big swings in the price of oil every few month’s right?
Every time the price of oil drops all the big guys move money out of the oil sector and the price of many oil companies shares drop, right?
As an example, what if one bought one hundred shares of AAA Oil Company at $25 in one of the dips, as the price of oil went up the price of shares would rise right?
When the price of oil starts to drop, or there is selling pressure caused by some other event, you could sell the stock short 100 shares and stay in the middle until you determined if the trend was really down. If the trend was in fact down, one could keep the short, sell the long, and let the price drop.
When the price bottomed one could then take profits on the short and replace the 100 shares plus.
If things did not go the way you expected you could sell whichever position was not moving and only pay these tiny commissions.
My crazy idea here is to eventually own the shares at a very low basis, therefore increasing the rate of return.
I am going to go into this with two basic theories, one that from here on out the markets are going to be very volatile, and two that the big powers will not let the market fail.
Lets see what the prices of some of these oil companies do in the coming hurricane! The news should tell us whose rigs will get shut down, and what will happen to the price of oil, and gasoline.
If we had applied this to mortgage companies over the last few weeks, our rate of return on our shorts would have been spectacular.
“Oil prices drop; Dean seen missing Gulf facilities
Hurricane lashes Jamaica and Caymans, heads for Yucatan Peninsula”
Here is what the big money is thinking about rate cuts that would drive the stock market up!
Marc Faber Ltd., oversees $2.1 billion in assets at Daiwa SB Investments Ltd.
Should the Standard and Poor's 500 Index drop below 1,400 the Fed is likely to reduce the overnight lending rate, Faber said. If the S&P rises above 1,500 it won't cut the rate, he said. The S&P 500 climbed 2.5 percent to 1,445.94 on Aug. 17. Still, it's down 6.9 percent from a record close set on July 19.
S&P 500 futures expiring in September rose 4.6 to 1,454.5 as of 11:42 a.m. in London.
No Dollar Collapse
``They're driven by asset markets, their policies, which is a mistake in the first place,'' said Faber,
I hope some of you sold this baby short the day I posted the news?
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Sentinel Management Group Inc., a U.S. futures commission merchant whose decision to freeze client accounts on Tuesday helped roil global financial markets, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection late on Friday.
It's critical to keep in mind what timeframe you want to work with. Hourly? Daily? Weekly? Or follow intermediate-term trends using 200 day averages? Each has advantages and disadvantages. I don't think it's wise to vary the timeframe.
Then apply the sound advice of being unemotional. To me I MUST know that investments are neither Good nor Evil.
"They" want people to think that investments are "good" and "evil." They want us to like stocks which are labeled "high tech" and dislike stocks such as oil and gas, and Gold. You can profit off of this mentality.
With a presidential campaign coming, these emotions will be played heavily. Could be healthcare, or energy, or something new.
http://money.cnn.com/2005/08/15/news/fortune500/lowes/index.htm
"It's like deja vu all over again." -- Yogi Berra
Yield curves are heavily inverted in England, Australia and New Zealand. These countries have had the strongest currencies.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Good luck with your plan, keep us posted.
Over the years I have learned that we are mere pawns in this game. They have the money and the inside info and at best you might be able to hold your own. Even the great Cramer still picks even with the market. I think its a rigged game.
My best game is to find a stock with huge P/E and short . This often takes a long time. Krispy Kreme did well for me and Im short on Amazon at 84 but I expect that to take another six months to play out.
I once tried to discuss a companies financials with a successful trader who's answer was "they don't matter", "it's all a game of pump and dump." So far that looks pretty acurate.
<< <i>Unbelieve move in 3 month t-bills today. Yielded 3.80% this morn and 2.45% right now. I cant ever remember price action of this magnitude.
Yield curves are heavily inverted in England, Australia and New Zealand. These countries have had the strongest currencies. >>
The fed is driving T-BILLS down this is their idea on how to keep inflation down.
<< <i>
<< <i>Unbelieve move in 3 month t-bills today. Yielded 3.80% this morn and 2.45% right now. I cant ever remember price action of this magnitude.
Yield curves are heavily inverted in England, Australia and New Zealand. These countries have had the strongest currencies. >>
The fed is driving T-BILLS down this is their idea on how to keep inflation down. >>
The inuendo and absurd supposition is beginning to run rampant in this thread.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
So this is what they call a "free market". It's such a ripoff
yahoo article
Yes...I saw that action on Thursday and yes, the move off the Fed cut started Thursday...not Friday morning. Why do I say that? Simple! There was massive illegal insider trading on Thursday...but no one will get caught because as usual, no one is watching. The evidence: out of nowhere, FINANCIALS were bought in big blocks...and the Fed struck the next morning. I would love to hear the tapes of the Bernanke/Paulson phone calls before the rate cut. THE NEWS WAS LEAKED...CASE CLOSED! Do you think anyone is going to audit the "out of nowhere" massive FINANCIAL stock buying? Doubt it! Even people that are not skeptical have to raise their eyebrows at Thursday's action. Did you notice that on Friday, there was not a shred of bad news announced by anyone? HMMMM!
As an aside, I remain convinced that raising interest rates contributes to inflation to the extent that commercial borrowers are able to pass their added costs on to consumers. At some point that can no longer be done, but it may be because the borrower is being priced out of the market by foreign competition. No good for our economy. The hard part is achieving the right balance, and by the time the Fed sees that real world results varied from their models, someone has already been hurt.
CG
I'm only half kidding about the asteroid, actually:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_MN4
http://www.ccastronomy.org/astro_alert_Apophis.htm
http://www.space.com/news/051103_asteroid_apophis.html
http://www.astronomy.com/asy/default.aspx?c=a&id=3434
<< <i>As of October 19, 2006, the impact probability for April 13, 2036, is estimated at 1 in 45,000. >>
I wish that jacka$$ would provide some evidence to support his absurd accusation.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>There was massive illegal insider trading on Thursday...but no one will get caught because as usual, no one is watching
I wish that jacka$$ would provide some evidence to support his absurd accusation. >>
Massive illegal insider trading??
That sort of thing will usually raise eyebrows and bring in an investigation. A little here and there goes on, I'm sure. But not anything "Massive".
I remain skeptical.
This thread skips around from time to time, but overall is one of the best ever, IMHO. Lots of useful info here.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Just look at Thursdays DOW chart. Why would a market in a freefall suddenly turn 180 and go back up 300 points on no good news at all??
Some people knew what was going to happen on Friday. If you don't believe that then you really don't understand how Goldman Sachs made 30+billion last year. Do you really think Paulson left the job as GS CEO for the paycheck of the Treasury Secretary? Do you have any idea how many former GS employees now have top US finance jobs??
<< <i>That sort of thing will usually raise eyebrows and bring in an investigation >>
Would you please name the last major investigation like that, oh, I forgot, they got Martha Stewart.
I'm sure there was insider trading.
However, the market conditions were so good that I went from 10% stock to 75% stock at lunchtime that day.
ALL of the move was not insiders.