Bernanke, only does what the White House Tells Him...lots and lots of fuzzy math involved!! They gotta plan ya know...and the plan works THEIR WAY...and the GOLD AND SILVER will never Reign against the dollar...not as long as the American dollar is the worlds currency!! The US gold supply in my oppinion is not as large as some of the Middle East stash! Remember HUSEIN...Look at the millions stashed...and you think he was the only one...NOT!!!
What is happening in precious metals is forced liquidation. When funds like hedge funds or commodity funds get redemptions or know they soon will they have to raise money. Also, margin calls to hedge funds that are highly leveraged requires selling assets and they sell what they can sell which is gold and stocks ( they can't sell mortgage backed securities, there are no reasonable bids ). What hedge funds do is raise money, buy and sell short assets, and borrow money to buy more. The theory is they can make above average returns in both up and down markets. This is fine if the funds are locked and can't be redeemed for a certain period of time and the top hedge fund guys don't allow redemptions. Consider that a hedge fund generally takes 2% of the assets per year plus 20% of the profits. So is it any wonder that everyone on Wall Street opened a hedge fund, that is anyone who could raise money. There are only a few real aces that really know what to buy and sell short, the other guys have big problems and are "blowing up" which is why stocks and precious metals are down.
What happened today is that the Dollars value gained big time...now if those hedge funds are loosing money and they owe say half a trillion dollars yesterday...what do you think they owe today...it is much much more than yesterday and yes they would have to reach for (solid assest..being gold and silver) nothing left...realestate is out of the picture)leaving the with very few options to cover their bottoms!!!
<< <i>There are only a few real aces that really know what to buy and sell short, the other guys have big problems and are "blowing up" which is why stocks and precious metals are down. >>
Unfortunately the right is just as prone to revisionist history as the left. Does the name Scholes ring any bells? How about LTCM?
Perhaps reading this will help refresh your memory:
<< <i>There are only a few real aces that really know what to buy and sell short, the other guys have big problems and are "blowing up" which is why stocks and precious metals are down. >>
Unfortunately the right is just as prone to revisionist history as the left. Does the name Scholes ring any bells? How about LTCM?
Perhaps reading this will help refresh your memory:
>>
I hope you don't think Myron Scholes or the other LTCM guys were on the political right ? They were Ivy league college professors.
Abuse and Greed is what is destroying this market and the market of the last 8 to 10 years...CEO's and BIG GOVERNMENT are the only two whom benifit...a few commoners will get lucky if they are smart! To mention the Likes of Buffet.
<< <i>I hope you don't think Myron Scholes or the other LTCM guys were on the political right ? They were Ivy league college professors. >>
They were the few real aces who really knew how to buy and sell short, complete with Ph.Ds and even a Nobel prize. And I believe the name of their fund speaks for itself. Just make sure you stay in for the long run and everything will be OK, right?
Don't know who said it first but "in the long run we're all dead."
<< <i>I hope you don't think Myron Scholes or the other LTCM guys were on the political right ? They were Ivy league college professors. >>
They were the few real aces who really knew how to buy and sell short, complete with Ph.Ds and even a Nobel prize. And I believe the name of their fund speaks for itself. Just make sure you stay in for the long run and everything will be OK, right?
Don't know who said it first but "in the long run we're all dead." >>
"in the long run we're all dead." is attributed to John Maynard Keynes.
The equity markets finally have a 10% correction. We used to get these moves every other year. My oh my have we become complacent.
The markets wouldnt be down if there wasnt some sort of shock or bad news. It is also no surprise that metals havent held.
I wrote a few days ago that the dollar was remarkably strong. Again, nobody listened.
Anyone who wants to trade the YEN without opening a futures account should check out FXY. You are probably a bit late to the game right now, but you will have more chances in the future.
My first thought on this is that all of this market action is caused almost entirely by institutions, and the thousands of billionaires that inhabit the planet.
I think the retail investors are still asleep as usual, and have just been scratching their heads for the last few weeks doing nothing. In the end the average man on the street will take most of the hits because he has no idea what is going on.
My expectations are that the Fed will most likely drop the rate in the next few days. When this happens the dollar will weaken again, everyone will jump out of treasuries, back into stocks, the shorts will cover, the market will go up some, and gold and silver will begin to climb back.
Unfortunately none of the problems we have been discussing here have been solved, and we can expect to see another round of explosions within 90 days.
The worlds stock, and capital markets have become little more than huge casinos where managers of vast sums of money sit at their computers and play, “Party Poker”
The position to be in is the one posted here in the last few days, “ my house is paid for, my car, is paid for etc.etc.etc. time to set back and make popcorn and watch the action”
I think we've seen just the tip of the iceberg with this mortgage thing. Rates are still historically low and there's already a huge problem. Bump rates up to "normal" levels (which I think will happen within the next 2 years) and the banks are going to be in serious trouble. Can you imagine what would happen if we get 18% rates like in 1981? Add to that all the people who are going to walk away from their McMansions because they're worth half of what they paid 3 years ago and I think we have the makings for big trouble ahead.
The sun will come out tomorrow bet your bottom dollar. Going to the RED SOX - L.A. ANGELS game at Fenway 1:00 start east coast time. Going to blow a little money and a little steam you only live once. the sun will come out tomorrow. GO SOX SEC. 22 BOX 48 ROW H SEATS 1+2
What we've seen in the last 5 years is a global credit bubble that was inflated by easy money. The only thing that was "cheap" was cash itself. Everything else was flying high. But house prices and stocks weren't the only thing that was inflated by the credit bubble. Gold and silver's price has also been inflated - to some extent - by the same factors. As other asset bubbles deflate, I expect gold and silver prices to also deflate. Not back down to $250 an ounce, but significantly from where we stand today. In a credit contraction, assets get cheaper and it is cash that gets more expensive.
"Men who had never shown any ability to make or increase fortunes for themselves abounded in brilliant plans for creating and increasing wealth for the country at large." Fiat Money Inflation in France, Andrew Dickson White (1912)
Not to mention that the CPI has just become a forward-looking indicator of inflation and injections of liquidity now trickle up from home owners to bankers.
I believe everything they say on CNBC. Why would such honest and moral people lie? For their own benefit? Nah, that can't be it.
<< <i>The sun will come out tomorrow bet your bottom dollar. Going to the RED SOX - L.A. ANGELS game at Fenway 1:00 start east coast time. Going to blow a little money and a little steam you only live once. the sun will come out tomorrow. GO SOX SEC. 22 BOX 48 ROW H SEATS 1+2 >>
OT but go Halo's anyway!
The rollercoaster is not over with the financial markets. I agree with the assertion that we have been complacent. Out here in California, especially the Orange County, there has been quite a bit of reckless reliance on home equity to fund "fun" vacations, new toys, etc. with no regard to the future possibility of the current adjustable rate mortgage rate increases. Guess it's the instant gratification mentality of today. My next door neighbor's house just went back to the bank last month.
Good luck to everyone here...be smart and hang on.
These people are too well educated to honestly believe what they're saying. They're liars and thieves and the market is a racket. You can get a more honest game in Vegas or Atlantic City.
EDIT: Don't misconstrue that to mean I recommend gambling, neither in Vegas or on Wall Street.
It has been a rollercoaster ride !!!!! . WE all feel the pain. It's like when you turn fifty and you get your first COLONOSCOPY you just grin and bare it.
<< <i>It has been a rollercoaster ride !!!!! . WE all feel the pain. It's like when you turn fifty and you get your first COLONOSCOPY you just grin and bare it. >>
Keep the rollercoaster going. As Buffet has said, "There are no bargains when the market hits a new high everyday". I much prefer the ride after the rollercoaster has crested than the steady and boring ride to the top.
Now the CNBC talking heads are saying "yeah, but he'll take it all back out so don't worry about inflation." Well, if that's the case then all Bernanke has done is manipulate the market. Which only goes to prove what I've been saying all along: you're not living in a free market society.
And FWIW, genius didn't fail those guys, capitalism failed them. That's also why chaos theory could never be successfully applied to U.S. markets. It only applies to free markets/systems.
That's free as in freedom, not as in hot air, BTW.
<< <i>Now the CNBC talking heads are saying "yeah, but he'll take it all back out so don't worry about inflation." Well, if that's the case then all Bernanke has done is manipulate the market. Which only goes to prove what I've been saying all along: you're not living in a free market society. >>
No market can fool mother nature. The choice has become inflation or recession.
If the latter even a hard landing may be difficult to engineer.
I've been looking for the actual General Thoery of Economic Discontinuitie and everyone wants to make me buy the book (on internet search) can anyone offer a kind of short discourse on the general principals?
Gee, I wonder why Bernanke just doesn't pump a couple billion in every week? Look how it makes all the pretty numbers go up.
On average, the FED pumps in $16 Billion into the economy every week as it is.
No one will be walking away from their McMansions this time around. The bankruptcy laws were recently changed to keep the owner shackled to their homes. Same for credit card debt. There are very strict rules now for determining who can walk and who cannot. This loophole was closed to ensure that the banks get all their "credit" back. They saw the debacle coming a long time ago.
There are 2 things you can control: Flippant as it may sound, the truth is: 1) your asset allocation and 2) your risk/reward tolerance....everything else is a guess.
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>On average, the FED pumps in $16 Billion into the economy every week as it is. >>
Most of that is actually recycled money, not new money. But since there's no transparency, we really don't know how much of the near trillion he put in this week was freshly printed by the BEP.
Monday will be interesting , we hit recent lows yesterday and bounced back up dramatically , usually there would be another test or 2 of these lows. With the Feds intervention this may not occur this time, in which case ,off to the races for stocks, dollar up again, and gold and silver down. Personally I nibbled at gold and silver today in the hopes that the market holds true to form and tests new lows and that the world turns to the PMGs for protection
Now I am ready to pick-up some 90% on a dip like last Thrus... Could not pull the "trigger" when silver at 11.04. Waiting for lower , I guess. Will be automatic buy on similar low. Expect this month may be lows for rest of year but who knows
I expect we've just seen the low for the long, long term. How quickly it rises remains to be seen, but I'm still holding to my $17 spot prediction by December.
When it hit that extreme low, you couldn't buy as no one was selling. At least not without a huge premium over the listed spot price.
Apmex put a stop to sales for a while there and even later, they were limiting amounts and added huge premiums.
That 11.04 price was actually artificial and very temporary. There wasn't any silver trading at that price. Not to the public anyway.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i> Now I am ready to pick-up some 90% on a dip like last Thrus... Could not pull the "trigger" when silver at 11.04. Waiting for lower , I guess. Will be automatic buy on similar low. Expect this month may be lows for rest of year but who knows >>
Yeah it was scary dropping to 11.04 like that , it was easy to tell those around you that this was an amazing buying opportunity but tough to pull the trigger. I bought SLV at 11.6 today though, we will see what happens
Oops, I meant 100 billion in a week, not a trillion. And it's my understanding that their note liability represents all the bills in existence, which is close to a trillion. Wonder what it'll be next time around?
<< <i> Now I am ready to pick-up some 90% on a dip like last Thrus... Could not pull the "trigger" when silver at 11.04. Waiting for lower , I guess. Will be automatic buy on similar low. Expect this month may be lows for rest of year but who knows >>
Yeah it was scary dropping to 11.04 like that , it was easy to tell those around you that this was an amazing buying opportunity but tough to pull the trigger. I bought SLV at 11.6 today though, we will see what happens >>
Why was it tough to pull the trigger? I bought all I could when I could and I was scouring the city. Even still I paid a premium, but I've already made up most of it.
$11.60? Where? I'll take as many 100 oz bars as you can find at that price or even at current spot plus a premium. There are none to be found in Houston. Who would sell at a time like this?
Anybody waiting for lower than $11.04 has missed the train. Not gonna happen.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the government quit reporting the amount of new printed money that it puts into the economy a year or two ago? >>
You are correct, but I believe it was earlier this year.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the government quit reporting the amount of new printed money that it puts into the economy a year or two ago? >>
Yeah , they did but the current cash infusions are being well publicized to "allay fears of a credit crunch"
<< <i>SLV is the silver ETF, but you could buy physical metal in 1000 oz bars thru Monex at 11.60 today >>
1000 ouncers are hard to deal with, but I wasn't aware of that. I would have been a buyer.
ETF? I think everyone should stay away from paper silver, that's the primary reason the price has been suppressed for as long as it has. That's just playing into their hands. Same with gold.
If everyone demanded physical delivery for their paper, then we'd really learn what the metals are actually worth.
OTOH, there is a side of me that remembers what happened to those who held paper silver back in 1980 and I believe they got just what they deserved.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Comments
Bernanke, only does what the White House Tells Him...lots and lots of fuzzy math involved!! They gotta plan ya know...and the plan works THEIR WAY...and the GOLD AND SILVER will never Reign against the dollar...not as long as the American dollar is the worlds currency!! The US gold supply in my oppinion is not as large as some of the Middle East stash! Remember HUSEIN...Look at the millions stashed...and you think he was the only one...NOT!!!
<< <i>I thought there was (at least) an "8 month delay" rule so 911 could be blamed on Clinton. >>
Yeah, it's not like the same people tried to blow up the same buildings before, or anything like that.
<< <i>This fuzzy math gets awfully confusing. >>
Not half as confusing as revisionist history.
<< <i>There are only a few real aces that really know what to buy and sell short, the other guys have big problems and are "blowing up" which is why stocks and precious metals are down.
Unfortunately the right is just as prone to revisionist history as the left. Does the name Scholes ring any bells? How about LTCM?
Perhaps reading this will help refresh your memory:
<< <i>
<< <i>There are only a few real aces that really know what to buy and sell short, the other guys have big problems and are "blowing up" which is why stocks and precious metals are down.
Unfortunately the right is just as prone to revisionist history as the left. Does the name Scholes ring any bells? How about LTCM?
Perhaps reading this will help refresh your memory:
I hope you don't think Myron Scholes or the other LTCM guys were on the political right ? They were Ivy league college professors.
the Likes of Buffet.
<< <i>I hope you don't think Myron Scholes or the other LTCM guys were on the political right ? They were Ivy league college professors. >>
They were the few real aces who really knew how to buy and sell short, complete with Ph.Ds and even a Nobel prize. And I believe the name of their fund speaks for itself. Just make sure you stay in for the long run and everything will be OK, right?
Don't know who said it first but "in the long run we're all dead."
<< <i>
<< <i>I hope you don't think Myron Scholes or the other LTCM guys were on the political right ? They were Ivy league college professors. >>
They were the few real aces who really knew how to buy and sell short, complete with Ph.Ds and even a Nobel prize. And I believe the name of their fund speaks for itself. Just make sure you stay in for the long run and everything will be OK, right?
Don't know who said it first but "in the long run we're all dead."
"in the long run we're all dead." is attributed to John Maynard Keynes.
The markets wouldnt be down if there wasnt some sort of shock or bad news. It is also no surprise that metals havent held.
I wrote a few days ago that the dollar was remarkably strong. Again, nobody listened.
Anyone who wants to trade the YEN without opening a futures account should check out FXY. You are probably a bit late to the game right now, but you will have more chances in the future.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
What is likely to happen next?
My first thought on this is that all of this market action is caused almost entirely by institutions, and the thousands of billionaires that inhabit the planet.
I think the retail investors are still asleep as usual, and have just been scratching their heads for the last few weeks doing nothing. In the end the average man on the street will take most of the hits because he has no idea what is going on.
My expectations are that the Fed will most likely drop the rate in the next few days.
When this happens the dollar will weaken again, everyone will jump out of treasuries, back into stocks, the shorts will cover, the market will go up some, and gold and silver will begin to climb back.
Unfortunately none of the problems we have been discussing here have been solved, and we can expect to see another round of explosions within 90 days.
The worlds stock, and capital markets have become little more than huge casinos where managers of vast sums of money sit at their computers and play, “Party Poker”
The position to be in is the one posted here in the last few days, “ my house is paid for, my car, is paid for etc.etc.etc. time to set back and make popcorn and watch the action”
I believe everything they say on CNBC. Why would such honest and moral people lie? For their own benefit? Nah, that can't be it.
<< <i>The sun will come out tomorrow bet your bottom dollar. Going to the RED SOX - L.A. ANGELS game at Fenway 1:00 start east coast time. Going to blow a little money and a little steam you only live once. the sun will come out tomorrow. GO SOX SEC. 22 BOX 48 ROW H SEATS 1+2 >>
OT but go Halo's anyway!
The rollercoaster is not over with the financial markets. I agree with the assertion that we have been complacent. Out here in California, especially the Orange County, there has been quite a bit of reckless reliance on home equity to fund "fun" vacations, new toys, etc. with no regard to the future possibility of the current adjustable rate mortgage rate increases. Guess it's the instant gratification mentality of today. My next door neighbor's house just went back to the bank last month.
Good luck to everyone here...be smart and hang on.
EDIT: Don't misconstrue that to mean I recommend gambling, neither in Vegas or on Wall Street.
My icon IS my coin. It is a gem 1949 FBL Franklin.
<< <i>The Fed just cut the discount rate. Things should get very interesting today, all the moreso with options expiration. Fasten your seatbelts. >>
That should be great for the short term but it will be interesting to see what effect this will have down the road.
Apparently facts are difficult, too.
<< <i>It has been a rollercoaster ride !!!!! . WE all feel the pain. It's like when you turn fifty and you get your first COLONOSCOPY you just grin and bare it. >>
Keep the rollercoaster going. As Buffet has said, "There are no bargains when the market hits a new high everyday". I much prefer the ride after the rollercoaster has crested than the steady and boring ride to the top.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
That's free as in freedom, not as in hot air, BTW.
<< <i>Now the CNBC talking heads are saying "yeah, but he'll take it all back out so don't worry about inflation." Well, if that's the case then all Bernanke has done is manipulate the market. Which only goes to prove what I've been saying all along: you're not living in a free market society. >>
No market can fool mother nature. The choice has become inflation or recession.
If the latter even a hard landing may be difficult to engineer.
The problems have not been solved and
will continue to ferment for the next 8-12 months.
The Fed will reduce the interest rate by 1/2 -3/4 percent
starting in September . The worry is really about the
400+ Trillion dollar derivative market ,becoming unraveled.
Smart investors would lighten up a bit on holdings and build cash.
The chance of further significant loses is still extremely high. There
will come a time for putting the cash back into the market but it will
come at a later time. Hold your powder dry.
Camelot
I've been looking for the actual General Thoery of Economic Discontinuitie and everyone wants to make me buy the book (on internet search) can anyone offer a kind of short discourse on the general principals?
Thanks, in advance.
On average, the FED pumps in $16 Billion into the economy every week as it is.
No one will be walking away from their McMansions this time around. The bankruptcy laws were recently changed to keep the owner shackled to their homes. Same for credit card debt. There are very strict rules now for determining who can walk and who cannot. This loophole was closed to ensure that the banks get all their "credit" back. They saw the debacle coming a long time ago.
roadrunner
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
what was going on, they would not be wasting
their time on TV.
Camelot
<< <i>On average, the FED pumps in $16 Billion into the economy every week as it is. >>
Most of that is actually recycled money, not new money. But since there's no transparency, we really don't know how much of the near trillion he put in this week was freshly printed by the BEP.
Recycled or not, we increase our nation's debt by that $16 BILL each week. In other words we still owe it to someone.
roadrunner
Personally I nibbled at gold and silver today in the hopes that the market holds true to form and tests new lows and that the world turns to the PMGs for protection
treasury bills thereby releasing cash to the market place.
Where the money comes from to accomplish that, nobody
knows.
Camelot
When it hit that extreme low, you couldn't buy as no one was selling. At least not without a huge premium over the listed spot price.
Apmex put a stop to sales for a while there and even later, they were limiting amounts and added huge premiums.
That 11.04 price was actually artificial and very temporary. There wasn't any silver trading at that price. Not to the public anyway.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>
Yeah it was scary dropping to 11.04 like that , it was easy to tell those around you that this was an amazing buying opportunity but tough to pull the trigger.
I bought SLV at 11.6 today though, we will see what happens
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/
<< <i>
<< <i>
Yeah it was scary dropping to 11.04 like that , it was easy to tell those around you that this was an amazing buying opportunity but tough to pull the trigger.
I bought SLV at 11.6 today though, we will see what happens >>
Why was it tough to pull the trigger? I bought all I could when I could and I was scouring the city. Even still I paid a premium, but I've already made up most of it.
$11.60? Where? I'll take as many 100 oz bars as you can find at that price or even at current spot plus a premium. There are none to be found in Houston. Who would sell at a time like this?
Anybody waiting for lower than $11.04 has missed the train. Not gonna happen.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the government quit reporting the amount of new printed money that it puts into the economy a year or two ago? >>
You are correct, but I believe it was earlier this year.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the government quit reporting the amount of new printed money that it puts into the economy a year or two ago? >>
Yeah , they did but the current cash infusions are being well publicized to "allay fears of a credit crunch"
<< <i>SLV is the silver ETF, but you could buy physical metal in 1000 oz bars thru Monex at 11.60 today >>
1000 ouncers are hard to deal with, but I wasn't aware of that. I would have been a buyer.
ETF? I think everyone should stay away from paper silver, that's the primary reason the price has been suppressed for as long as it has. That's just playing into their hands. Same with gold.
If everyone demanded physical delivery for their paper, then we'd really learn what the metals are actually worth.
OTOH, there is a side of me that remembers what happened to those who held paper silver back in 1980 and I believe they got just what they deserved.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
What ever profits you make, will go towards your hernia
operation.
Camelot
<< <i>Today was a small psychological bump.
The problems have not been solved and
will continue to ferment for the next 8-12 months.
The Fed will reduce the interest rate by 1/2 -3/4 percent
starting in September . The worry is really about the
400+ Trillion dollar derivative market ,becoming unraveled.
Smart investors would lighten up a bit on holdings and build cash.
The chance of further significant loses is still extremely high. There
will come a time for putting the cash back into the market but it will
come at a later time. Hold your powder dry. >>
Well said Bear