Bear, I was being facetious. The post was to show how stupidly we have mismanaged the greatest nation in the world into a debt ridden, dishonest, lying, internationally distrusted, job killing declining power.
China will eat our lunch. And we have cooked it for them.
Although it will serve us right, it will be the tragedy of all time.
What would that mean for stockholders? Would the stock recover somewhat from its 20 year lows? Or does the outstanding stock become worthless somehow? How a company can just declare bankrupcy, get rid of its debt, and keep on going as if nothing ever happened, since in theory, creditors have first claim on assets right? I see it happen with the airlines all the time, just not sure how it works.
Existing shareholders in most instances loss 100% of their investment. The creditors-(bondholders)- get shares of the newly reorganized company in exchange for the bonds. Then it happens all over again. It is much too easy to go bankrupt in America.
Existing shareholders in most instances loss 100% of their investment. The creditors-(bondholders)- get shares of the newly reorganized company in exchange for the bonds. Then it happens all over again. It is much too easy to go bankrupt in America. >>
But the managers who drove the comnpany bankrupt are the first to get their exorbitant pay and their golden parachutes deploy as they gather the last of the company's assets. It's still a great place in which to fail.
very well said Topstuf........we've only done this to ourselves. GM will go bankrupt as they are just a finance company now. Yeah, we need more of those to finance things no one can really afford without credit, that we cannot afford without stupid overseas buying of our debt.
I wonder exactly how long it will be before we have a securities and exchange commission that will stop allowing corporations to cook their books?
Finally the real numbers on GM are starting to come out, and it’s an ugly sight. What is even worse is that the GM story is the tip of the iceberg. There are hundreds of U.S. companies who are allowed by the SEC and the other FEDS to keep long-term liabilities off their books.
Last night on CNBC some investigative reporter claims to have gotten some real numbers on GM from an inside source in the Pension Guarantee Fund. The numbers looked like this GM has 28 Billion in NET assets and 38 Billion in liabilities, 31 billion of that is pension and medical liabilities. So GM is basically broke and has a shareholder value of minus 10 billion.
How can this company be part of the Dow, this company should be a Pink Sheet penny stock company, and the regulators should have disclosed its REAL liabilities long ago.
Even the most sophisticated of investors don’t have access to the REAL numbers. Here is a quote from Bloomberg this morning,
“The drop in GM shares may also add to pressure on Wagoner from billionaire investor Kirk Kerkorian. Kerkorian spent $1.7 billion this year for a 9.9 percent stake in the automaker and said he may ask for a board seat. At yesterday's closing price, his holdings in GM had lost $488 million in value. Kerkorian, 88, gained a Chrysler Corp. board seat after an unsuccessful hostile bid for that automaker a decade ago.”
What chance do small investors have when the government allows all these companies to leave their liabilities off their books year after year? Just one more reason NOT to send you’re hard earned money to Wall Street.
“More than ever, diversification across all levels, within and between all asset types in your long-term portfolio”
You know FF diversification is one thing, but how can the 57 million American stock investors even make a legitimate decision on what to invest in when the books are cooked on Americas largest companies?
I addition how can GM be allowed to use their pension money to see them selves through a strike at Delphi?
“Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp., profitless in four straight quarters, may use up most of its $19.2 billion in cash reserves in the event of a strike at Delphi Corp., its largest auto-parts supplier, analysts said.
A three-month strike would use up about $13 billion of GM's cash, Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. analyst Rod Lache wrote in a separate report this week. GM reported $19.2 billion in cash, marketable securities and money available from a retiree health- care fund at the end of September.”
"You know FF diversification is one thing, but how can the 57 million American stock investors even make a legitimate decision on what to invest in when the books are cooked on Americas largest companies?"
Keep in mind you are just talking about one asset among many, and broad indexes across multiple regions makes that risk negligible, especially over the long run. I don't believe anyone should be putting important money into riskier/narrower sectors and individual stocks. I think stocks should be in your mix, in a highly diversified low-fee way, with the percentage of holdings you have in equities being guided by time frame.
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We know what to do...diversify, invest wisely, don't bet on the come, continue to save/invest and reduce debt, be individually responsible for our own welfare.
There is such a wide range in the condition of individuals in the US.
Last night on the news, there were some Katrina folks being interviewed about being kicked out of the free motels by Dec. 1. The guy being interviewed (late 20's or early 30's) said "What am I supposed to do, I've got no where to go?" I was very suprised when the reporter for the story didn't say..."Get a fuc.ing job!"
On the other side, you have the corporate mentality noted in previous parts of the thread above. That game is played completely over the small investor's heads. Those poor fools that believe that investment in GM type corporations is prudent are just mullets heading for the bait net, soon to become tomorrow's cat food. The big game is played by majority owners and lobbyists. They are fed by stock funds and 401k's. Anyone can get much better odds on the craps tables.
Believe only what you know to be true, don't spend your personal money on what you can't see, pay attention.
As wrong and as bad as corporate corruption is, the people who got screwed by it were either putting an inappropriate amount of money into stocks, especially individual stocks, when retirement was coming up ... or people who just weren't diversified enough and were too heavy into one sector or equities in general, considering their time frame. Almost everyone I heard complaining since the crash were people who forogt or didn't care to learn about the basics of something as important as their money and future. I was one of the few around me who didn't care about the crash and in fact, did well afterwards due to the variety of assets and the fact that I was still a regular buyer in equities. I was in equities because I had a long time to go and most of my buying ahead of me -- so why would one crash bother me?
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But the managers who drove the comnpany bankrupt are the first to get their exorbitant pay and their golden parachutes deploy as they gather the last of the company's assets. It's still a great place in which to fail
"Demand for gold coins, bars and bullion-backed shares rose 56 percent in the third quarter, the producer-funded World Gold Council said today. Gold sold in dollars has rallied 11 percent this year, heading for a fifth-straight annual gain, as concern about quickening inflation grew and jewelry purchases increased.
``Investors are gravitating toward gold,'' said Tom Boustead, an analyst for Refco Inc. in New York. ``Europe doesn't look terribly attractive, and the U.S. still has the current account- deficit problem. That forces interest in hard assets.''
Was chatting with a very sharp person yesterday that proposed the following...
What if the FED tried (to mask the increase in M3 by cutting off the flow of information to JOE 6pack and started) cranking up the presses in the next five years to allow your average MORTGAGE DEBTOR to pay off the mortgage with greatly inflated dollars........thereby easing the crunch of those mortgages.....
The FED bailed out the economy in 2000+ by dropping rates through the floor which allowed some people to regain solvency after the tech bubble.......
What if the FED tried (to mask the increase in M3 by cutting off the flow of information to JOE 6pack and started) cranking up the presses in the next five years to allow your average MORTGAGE DEBTOR to pay off the mortgage with greatly inflated dollars........thereby easing the crunch of those mortgages.....
The FED bailed out the economy in 2000+ by dropping rates through the floor which allowed some people to regain solvency after the tech bubble.......
Just as a side note, Liberty double eagle common dates are going for just a hair over spot. So, a hundred and twenty year old +/- coin for about spot...hummmmmmmm
Oil has crashed down through its 200 DMA at 57.82. Currently it is trading at about $55.60. Uptrend line support is about $51. Thats where I look for it to go. I would probably be a buyer there.
Horn tooting. Hit my $56 target before Thanksgiving.
<< <i>Oil has crashed down through its 200 DMA at 57.82. Currently it is trading at about $55.60. Uptrend line support is about $51. Thats where I look for it to go. I would probably be a buyer there.
Horn tooting. Hit my $56 target before Thanksgiving. >>
Sell your children and buy oil/gas shares when and if oil hits $51. I think once the stocks tank to their 200 DMAs it's a screaming buy.
<< <i>Just as a side note, Liberty double eagle common dates are going for just a hair over spot. So, a hundred and twenty year old +/- coin for about spot...hummmmmmmm >>
<< <i> Sell your children and buy oil/gas shares when and if oil hits $51. I think once the stocks tank to their 200 DMAs it's a screaming buy. >>
I wouldn't hold my breath that the big integrated oils will tank. These companies are paying a dividend approaching 4% and have tons of natural gas. If oil doesn't break $50 this winter I'd hate to see how much gas will be come next summer. These companies are setup for high or low oil. They make money in winter on natural gas and when oil is low they have major stakes in chemicals although most are seeing the writing on the wall about cheap oil returning and many are selling their chemicals units. If they drop 5 or 6 bucks I'd be a buyer. Now if we have a major stock market correction all bets are off, everything will tank but some will recover quickly.
The new psychology for oil iis firmly entrenched at this point so prices are likely to respond more strongly tpo market forces again which could translate to much lower prices (than $70/ Bbl). Betting on this is extremely risky since the next major move will be sharply higher and will come when least expected. $45 should hold even if we have a small slowdown.
What if the FED tried (to mask the increase in M3 by cutting off the flow of information to JOE 6pack and started) cranking up the presses in the next five years to allow your average MORTGAGE DEBTOR to pay off the mortgage with greatly inflated dollars........thereby easing the crunch of those mortgages.....
I may be mistaken, but I believe that would bankrupt the banks.
And then the Fed would have to cover the bankrupt banks.
I think ya'll are brave for taking on oil Long here....
Plus, I've never heard a positive comment about the way CVX and XOM manage their businesses. Especially when I worked with 'em. They aren't as bad as Halliburton, but that ain't saying much.
I think you are mistaken. The only way banks lose is when the housing bubble turns into a massive mortgage default. The fed would certianly like to ease the bubble out rather than puncture it.
I was in equities because I had a long time to go and most of my buying ahead of me -- so why would one crash bother me?
All crashes bother me! 1966-1982 bothered me, and then the crash in 1987 as well as 2000 bothered me. I guess I'm easily bothered. I don't like being around crashes.
I know most Americans believe this but they are in it to make money and a 9% gain isn't bleeding America. You can thank good ole Uncle Sam for part of this problem when they deemed that those low paying manufacturing jobs weren't need and they went to China. Guess who needs oil now and has an ever growing thirst?
I didn't see anyone whining when oil was $8 to $10 a barrel and all of us were getting laid off, they were in a real pickle then. Oil is a high risk high reward game just as it's always been. I spent a year and a half in Alaska drilling offshore at a million dollars a day just for the exploratory well's with no way of getting it back without building a pipeline if a discovery occurred. Most of these companies have been forced into unstable areas of the world to try to replace their reserves. Funny congress can't do anything about this. You can't control what you don't own and we import almost 2/3 of our oil today. Where was Uncle Sam when foreign companies were buying up the majors during low oil (since it was cheaper to buy a company and its reserves rather than try to drill). Congress step in and these foreign companies sell to China or India and were stuck with WWII type rationing, hope "Joe Six Pack" enjoys that!
We've always paid about half for gas as the rest of the world because of our stroke but that's fading fast. I'm sure glad I was outsourced about 5 years ago.........
Now my son that just moved back may disagree he didn't like no heat when it got to 27 degrees outside. I told him to put on some clothes and toughen up, after all it was only 48 degrees in the house..................
It's funny that we blame the oil companies for gouging and outlandish profits. Yet the real cause of this over the years is the total ineptitude of the govt and the FED in particular in handling our Money Supply and Debt. It's as simple as that. The oil profits (commodities as well) are mainly due to our own elected (and selected) leaders. Yet they succeed in turning around and pointing the figure at oil companies. Then they hold hearings to investigate them.
What should be happening is holding public hearings about the mess out govt has gotten us into. And we keep re-electing the bastids because we've been persuaded by them that the fault lies with anyone but them. Ironic isn't it. Gold and commodities have gone wild because of the FED increasing liquidity in a massive amount over the past 10 years. And we give Greenspan a royal sendoff for doing this to us?
Demand also plays a role, as does investment. Oil had no investment for years - decades.
Several years ago, perhaps year 2000, the XAU Gold & silver index had a combined Market Cap of all the stocks within the index of only $40 Billion. Remarkably low investment for a sector so important. Obviously the Financial Advisors who preach diversification didn't diversify their well-paying customers into the XAU.
The large swings in the economy are due to huge swings in FED generated liquidity. The govt is more than happy to get their hands on this money because they can dole out the money to their constituents (lobbyists, corporations, etc) and then get re-elected each time around.
If you think you've seen volatility so far, just wait until it really starts to show up in the various markets. Diversification into PM's is not something the big banks and stock brokers want you to do. That works contrary to their paper asset game. That's honest money and keeps the money supply honest. Hence the need to keep gold reigned in all during the 1990's via central bank sales and non-transparent CB/FED activity. To keep things well-shielded, now the FED intends to hide M3 data from the market place (or at least you and I) to further mystify the markets. No doubt a Goldman Sachs or JPM will be priivy to this information behind the scenes as they are some of the henchman of the FED via the PPT and ESF.
fishcooker...I have to admit that I'm not nearly as smart now...30 years after I was an undergraduate...so please bear with me.....but it would seem to me that paying off the ENORMOUS debt that this country has acquired -both public and private- is easier with inflated dollars. Inflating the money supply does not BK the banking industry. Banks do not hold 30 yr fixed rate instruments like the old days. They may originate them, but they are bundled and sold quickly. Originating institutions make their money from upfront fees and servicing.
I was always under the impression that all a bank needed was a 2pt spread to make money. Albeit, those were the old days.
I've been known to be full of bravo sierra so I'll take my lumps if I am but I'm a little bit of a gambler and I'm shifting more into higher intrinsic value assets and out of cash.
Oil prices skyrocketed because the hedge funds chased each other for performance. Make up excuses for China and India, add a natural disaster or two, and POOF....$70 oil.
Before we leave our discussion on the price of oil I would like to make just one point. There has been no increase in the price of oil or the price of gas at the pump. The price of gas has simply finally adjusted for the inflation created by the Feds. Yesterday I heard a report on the radio done by some economics professor at a Northeastern University. Basically what he said is that the price of a gallon of gas today is nearly exactly what it was in 1950-1960-1970-1980-1990-2000 etc. when adjust the price for inflation using the governments own numbers. So this morning I plugged this into my CPI inflation calculator and this is what it said,
What cost $.29 in 1950 would cost $2.25 in 2005. Also, if you were to buy exactly the same products in 2005 and 1950, they would cost you $.29 and $0.04 respectively.
It is easier to blame the oil companies than the FEDs. If people realize that the FED is the one to be blamed, then it will open a can of worms and no one likes that. Unaudited statement, Hedonic adjustments..... The government and the FED governors want people to think that the FEDERAL RESERVE is a savior, a fantastic organization that has saved us time and again from failure. The ignorant public don't know that the near failure or the near collapse is indeed the work of the FED and they are merely trying to fix it.
Case in point: Stock Market Bust of 1987, 2000 and the current housing market.
This is the irony of inflation. The FED creates it and the govt goes along with it (actually demands it). How else to fund all those socialistic programs without lots of new liquidity? Then when commodities such as oil and gold start to rebalance the equation, everyone gets up in arms and points to the big bad oil companies or a Bunker Hunt for example. The real culprits are never implicated.
when adjusting the price for inflation using the governments own numbers......
That's part of the problem since the mid-90's, is that the govt's "own" numbers are heavily massaged. They understate the actual amount of inflation. Somehow the govt has brainwashed our society to believe that 3% inflation per year is a good thing and that a modern industrialized country cannot function and grow w/o such inflation.
But then we will see the end of year sell-offs by those taking profit. It will close the year right around or a bit below where it is today.
Same thing with silver. I expect silver to fall below $8 between December 15-20. I've noticed December 15 as a date to circle and learned to expect a drop in PMs around that time, give or take a few days.
EDIT: I do expect to see gold hit $525 by late January of '06.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
“Merry Christmas, I will take everything on that shelf, and just charge it!”
Nothing seems to affect the spending habits of Americans or their government. Is it then any wonder that foreign investors are buying GOLD to hedge against their U.S. paper debt assets that may never be redemable?
Nov. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Newmont Mining Corp., the world's largest producer of gold, says the price of the precious metal may rise to more than $1,000 an ounce in the next five to seven years as demand growth driven by Asia outstrips global supply.
Nov. 27 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. retail sales jumped 22 percent to $27.8 billion during the post-Thanksgiving weekend, as shoppers flocked to stores to buy electronics, clothing and books, the National Retail Federation said. Shoppers spent an average $302.81, the Washington-based trade group said today in a statement. It said 145 million shoppers went to stores and the Internet, as retailers offered substantial discounts. In a separate statement issued yesterday, Visa USA said retail spending on Visa credit and debit cards rose 12 percent on the Friday after Thanksgiving, led by purchases of electronics and computers. Research-company ShopperTrak RCT Corp.
David Lazarus Sunday, November 27, 2005 Last month, the national debt reached yet another miserable milestone, passing the $8 trillion mark for the first time. As of last week, the United States was $8,084,858,891,735.31 in the hole, according to the Treasury Department.
Brian Riedl, chief budget analyst at the conservative Heritage Foundation, said the Bush administration is expected to return to Congress within the next few months to ask lawmakers -- once again -- to raise the nation's debt ceiling so we can borrow even more.
"A debt of $8 trillion is certainly a daunting number," Riedl told me. "I'm not sure we'll ever pay it off." You heard right. The top number cruncher at the Washington think tank that's arguably friendliest to the Bush administration has come to the conclusion that our debt has gotten so out of hand, it may never go away.
Hummmm...what a suprise. Hopefully everybody got in early enough.
"According to hedge fund manager Juerg Kiener, it is only a matter of time before Asian central banks start selling US dollars. Russia has already said that it is considering boosting its gold stores.
He said that concerns about the size of budget deficits in some of the world's biggest economies, as well as fears about higher inflation and slower growth, had created a good environment for buying precious metals.
"Gold is the only monetary asset class which will protect investors," Mr Keiner said.
Should Asian central banks move into the gold market, then the effect could be "explosive", said Philip Klapwijk, who is a chairman of consultancy GFMS and a director of the Global Precious Metals Fund. "
<< <i>"A debt of $8 trillion is certainly a daunting number," Riedl told me. "I'm not sure we'll ever pay it off." >>
We can never pay it off in current dollars, but we can inflate as hell and pay it off in tomorrow's dollars. That's the plan. >>
I agree that this will never be paid off. But since we have a debt-based (fiat) money system, money is created by borrowing (debt). So more inflation equals more debt. So even though tomorrow's "cheaper" dollars could be used to pay today's debt, it means that there will be more debt created along the way. The only way to pay down the debt is to pay with money already in existence, not newly-created debt-money.
The act of creating debt is what creates money (fiat money is borrowed into existence). When a debt is paid off, that money vanishes. Deflation is when everyone is paying off debts (money supply shrinking). There was a time when a loaf of bread cost 5 cents. If the 8 trillion dollar debt was paid off (8 trillion dollars removed from the money supply), then it is almost certain that a loaf of bread would again cost 5 cents.
But that, of course, isn't going to happen. The entire fiat-money economy is geared towards ever-increasing money supply and, by association, an ever-increasing human population (sort of like the ever-expanding universe). If the money supply shinks significantly, there will be trouble. Big trouble. Like a general break-down of society kind of trouble. The money supply must (and will) follow an exponentially-increasing path. And to achieve that, they won't be dropping money from helicopters. But the Federal Government will borrow and spend ever more wildly. They'll just borrow more from the Federal Reserve who will create the money (more debt) just by typing in a few more zeroes.
Comments
China will eat our lunch. And we have cooked it for them.
Although it will serve us right, it will be the tragedy of all time.
Existing shareholders in most instances loss 100% of their investment. The creditors-(bondholders)- get shares of the newly reorganized company in exchange for the bonds. Then it happens all over again. It is much too easy to go bankrupt in America.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
Existing shareholders in most instances loss 100% of their investment. The creditors-(bondholders)- get shares of the newly reorganized company in exchange for the bonds. Then it happens all over again. It is much too easy to go bankrupt in America. >>
But the managers who drove the comnpany bankrupt are the first to get their exorbitant pay and
their golden parachutes deploy as they gather the last of the company's assets. It's still a great
place in which to fail.
are just a finance company now. Yeah, we need more of those to finance things no one can
really afford without credit, that we cannot afford without stupid overseas buying of our debt.
roadrunner
I wonder exactly how long it will be before we have a securities and exchange commission that will stop allowing corporations to cook their books?
Finally the real numbers on GM are starting to come out, and it’s an ugly sight.
What is even worse is that the GM story is the tip of the iceberg. There are hundreds of U.S. companies who are allowed by the SEC and the other FEDS to keep long-term liabilities off their books.
Last night on CNBC some investigative reporter claims to have gotten some real numbers on GM from an inside source in the Pension Guarantee Fund. The numbers looked like this GM has 28 Billion in NET assets and 38 Billion in liabilities, 31 billion of that is pension and medical liabilities. So GM is basically broke and has a shareholder value of minus 10 billion.
How can this company be part of the Dow, this company should be a Pink Sheet penny stock company, and the regulators should have disclosed its REAL liabilities long ago.
Even the most sophisticated of investors don’t have access to the REAL numbers. Here is a quote from Bloomberg this morning,
“The drop in GM shares may also add to pressure on Wagoner from billionaire investor Kirk Kerkorian. Kerkorian spent $1.7 billion this year for a 9.9 percent stake in the automaker and said he may ask for a board seat. At yesterday's closing price, his holdings in GM had lost $488 million in value. Kerkorian, 88, gained a Chrysler Corp. board seat after an unsuccessful hostile bid for that automaker a decade ago.”
What chance do small investors have when the government allows all these companies to leave their liabilities off their books year after year? Just one more reason NOT to send you’re hard earned money to Wall Street.
“More than ever, diversification across all levels, within and between all asset types in your long-term portfolio”
You know FF diversification is one thing, but how can the 57 million American stock investors even make a legitimate decision on what to invest in when the books are cooked on Americas largest companies?
I addition how can GM be allowed to use their pension money to see them selves through a strike at Delphi?
“Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp., profitless in four straight quarters, may use up most of its $19.2 billion in cash reserves in the event of a strike at Delphi Corp., its largest auto-parts supplier, analysts said.
A three-month strike would use up about $13 billion of GM's cash, Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. analyst Rod Lache wrote in a separate report this week. GM reported $19.2 billion in cash, marketable securities and money available from a retiree health- care fund at the end of September.”
Not a chance of that happening. They have 700 million poor people to entitle first.
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"You know FF diversification is one thing, but how can the 57 million American stock investors even make a legitimate decision on what to invest in when the books are cooked on Americas largest companies?"
Keep in mind you are just talking about one asset among many, and broad indexes across multiple regions makes that risk negligible, especially over the long run. I don't believe anyone should be putting important money into riskier/narrower sectors and individual stocks. I think stocks should be in your mix, in a highly diversified low-fee way, with the percentage of holdings you have in equities being guided by time frame.
We know what to do...diversify, invest wisely, don't bet on the come, continue to save/invest and reduce debt, be individually responsible for our own welfare.
There is such a wide range in the condition of individuals in the US.
Last night on the news, there were some Katrina folks being interviewed about being kicked out of the free motels by Dec. 1. The guy being interviewed (late 20's or early 30's) said "What am I supposed to do, I've got no where to go?" I was very suprised when the reporter for the story didn't say..."Get a fuc.ing job!"
On the other side, you have the corporate mentality noted in previous parts of the thread above. That game is played completely over the small investor's heads. Those poor fools that believe that investment in GM type corporations is prudent are just mullets heading for the bait net, soon to become tomorrow's cat food. The big game is played by majority owners and lobbyists. They are fed by stock funds and 401k's. Anyone can get much better odds on the craps tables.
Believe only what you know to be true, don't spend your personal money on what you can't see, pay attention.
their golden parachutes deploy as they gather the last of the company's assets. It's still a great
place in which to fail
Exactly my point.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
``Investors are gravitating toward gold,'' said Tom Boustead, an analyst for Refco Inc. in New York. ``Europe doesn't look terribly attractive, and the U.S. still has the current account- deficit problem. That forces interest in hard assets.''
Well, who woulda thunk it.
What if the FED tried (to mask the increase in M3 by cutting off the flow of information to JOE 6pack and started) cranking up the presses in the next five years to allow your average MORTGAGE DEBTOR to pay off the mortgage with greatly inflated dollars........thereby easing the crunch of those mortgages.....
The FED bailed out the economy in 2000+ by dropping rates through the floor which allowed some people to regain solvency after the tech bubble.......
Just a thought....
What if the FED tried (to mask the increase in M3 by cutting off the flow of information to JOE 6pack and started) cranking up the presses in the next five years to allow your average MORTGAGE DEBTOR to pay off the mortgage with greatly inflated dollars........thereby easing the crunch of those mortgages.....
The FED bailed out the economy in 2000+ by dropping rates through the floor which allowed some people to regain solvency after the tech bubble.......
I think that is exactly what's going on.
Horn tooting. Hit my $56 target before Thanksgiving.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Oil has crashed down through its 200 DMA at 57.82. Currently it is trading at about $55.60. Uptrend line support is about $51. Thats where I look for it to go. I would probably be a buyer there.
Horn tooting. Hit my $56 target before Thanksgiving.
Sell your children and buy oil/gas shares when and if oil hits $51. I think once the stocks tank to their 200 DMAs it's a screaming buy.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Just as a side note, Liberty double eagle common dates are going for just a hair over spot. So, a hundred and twenty year old +/- coin for about spot...hummmmmmmm >>
Not around here...wish they were..
Been noticing them on heritage auctions...maybe in other places too.
"1888-S $20 AU55 NGC. Pop: (P 65/1480, N 15/1662). Mintage: 859,600. Numismedia Wsl. Price: $472.(#9009)"
<< <i>
Sell your children and buy oil/gas shares when and if oil hits $51. I think once the stocks tank to their 200 DMAs it's a screaming buy. >>
I wouldn't hold my breath that the big integrated oils will tank. These companies are paying a dividend approaching 4% and have tons of natural gas. If oil doesn't break $50 this winter I'd hate to see how much gas will be come next summer. These companies are setup for high or low oil. They make money in winter on natural gas and when oil is low they have major stakes in chemicals although most are seeing the writing on the wall about cheap oil returning and many are selling their chemicals units. If they drop 5 or 6 bucks I'd be a buyer. Now if we have a major stock market correction all bets are off, everything will tank but some will recover quickly.
to respond more strongly tpo market forces again which could translate to much
lower prices (than $70/ Bbl). Betting on this is extremely risky since the next
major move will be sharply higher and will come when least expected. $45 should
hold even if we have a small slowdown.
I may be mistaken, but I believe that would bankrupt the banks.
And then the Fed would have to cover the bankrupt banks.
I think ya'll are brave for taking on oil Long here....
Plus, I've never heard a positive comment about the way CVX and XOM manage their businesses. Especially when I worked with 'em. They aren't as bad as Halliburton, but that ain't saying much.
find a way to mass produce it. Probably ther next thing they will
seek to control is the air and all the fresh water in the world. They
aughta be able to make a buck or two on those.
Camelot
oil and natural gas. Thus, either their really stupid, or are lying
thru their teeth. They are just like the tobacco companies, auto companies
and drug companies. Deny, obfuscate, bribe, lie, preveracate and act always in a manner
to maximize profits at the expense of the public.
Camelot
All crashes bother me!
bothered. I don't like being around crashes.
roadrunner
I know most Americans believe this but they are in it to make money and a 9% gain isn't bleeding America. You can thank good ole Uncle Sam for part of this problem when they deemed that those low paying manufacturing jobs weren't need and they went to China. Guess who needs oil now and has an ever growing thirst?
I didn't see anyone whining when oil was $8 to $10 a barrel and all of us were getting laid off, they were in a real pickle then. Oil is a high risk high reward game just as it's always been. I spent a year and a half in Alaska drilling offshore at a million dollars a day just for the exploratory well's with no way of getting it back without building a pipeline if a discovery occurred. Most of these companies have been forced into unstable areas of the world to try to replace their reserves. Funny congress can't do anything about this. You can't control what you don't own and we import almost 2/3 of our oil today. Where was Uncle Sam when foreign companies were buying up the majors during low oil (since it was cheaper to buy a company and its reserves rather than try to drill). Congress step in and these foreign companies sell to China or India and were stuck with WWII type rationing, hope "Joe Six Pack" enjoys that!
We've always paid about half for gas as the rest of the world because of our stroke but that's fading fast. I'm sure glad I was outsourced about 5 years ago.........
You want to see real profit buy bottled water!
Suck it up, big boy and go down to Texas. I know a guy down there who will GIVE you a field of oil wells.
For Free.
And then you can beat the majors at their own game!
My car runs on baked beans.
Camelot
<< <i>I dont need no stinking gas.
My car runs on baked beans. >>
Me neither ....I work from home, I'm FREE!
Now my son that just moved back may disagree he didn't like no heat when it got to 27 degrees outside. I told him to put on some clothes and toughen up, after all it was only 48 degrees in the house..................
years is the total ineptitude of the govt and the FED in particular in handling our Money Supply and Debt. It's as
simple as that. The oil profits (commodities as well) are mainly due to our own elected (and selected) leaders.
Yet they succeed in turning around and pointing the figure at oil companies. Then they hold hearings to investigate them.
What should be happening is holding public hearings about the mess out govt has gotten us into. And we keep
re-electing the bastids because we've been persuaded by them that the fault lies with anyone but them.
Ironic isn't it. Gold and commodities have gone wild because of the FED increasing liquidity in a massive amount
over the past 10 years. And we give Greenspan a royal sendoff for doing this to us?
roadrunner
Demand also plays a role, as does investment. Oil had no investment for years - decades.
Several years ago, perhaps year 2000, the XAU Gold & silver index had a combined Market Cap of all the stocks within the index of only $40 Billion. Remarkably low investment for a sector so important. Obviously the Financial Advisors who preach diversification didn't diversify their well-paying customers into the XAU.
If you think you've seen volatility so far, just wait until it really starts to show up in the various markets. Diversification into PM's is not something the big banks and stock brokers want you to do. That works contrary to their paper asset game. That's honest money and keeps the money supply honest. Hence the need to keep gold reigned in all during the 1990's via central bank sales and non-transparent CB/FED activity. To keep things well-shielded, now the FED intends to hide M3 data from the market place (or at least you and I) to further mystify the markets. No doubt a Goldman Sachs or JPM will be priivy to this information behind the scenes as they are some of the henchman of the FED via the PPT and ESF.
roadrunner
I was always under the impression that all a bank needed was a 2pt spread to make money. Albeit, those were the old days.
I've been known to be full of bravo sierra so I'll take my lumps if I am but I'm a little bit of a gambler and I'm shifting more into higher intrinsic value assets and out of cash.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
There has been no increase in the price of oil or the price of gas at the pump. The price of gas has simply finally adjusted for the inflation created by the Feds. Yesterday I heard a report on the radio done by some economics professor at a Northeastern University. Basically what he said is that the price of a gallon of gas today is nearly exactly what it was in 1950-1960-1970-1980-1990-2000 etc. when adjust the price for inflation using the governments own numbers. So this morning I plugged this into my CPI inflation calculator and this is what it said,
What cost $.29 in 1950 would cost $2.25 in 2005.
Also, if you were to buy exactly the same products in 2005 and 1950,
they would cost you $.29 and $0.04 respectively.
It is easier to blame the oil companies than the FEDs. If people realize that the FED is the one to be blamed, then it will open a can of worms and no one likes that. Unaudited statement, Hedonic adjustments..... The government and the FED governors want people to think that the FEDERAL RESERVE is a savior, a fantastic organization that has saved us time and again from failure. The ignorant public don't know that the near failure or the near collapse is indeed the work of the FED and they are merely trying to fix it.
Case in point: Stock Market Bust of 1987, 2000 and the current housing market.
everyone gets up in arms and points to the big bad oil companies or a Bunker Hunt for example. The real culprits are never implicated.
when adjusting the price for inflation using the governments own numbers......
That's part of the problem since the mid-90's, is that the govt's
"own" numbers are heavily massaged. They understate the actual
amount of inflation. Somehow the govt has brainwashed our society to believe that 3% inflation per year is a good thing and that a modern industrialized country cannot function and grow w/o such inflation.
roadrunner
After hours trading:
Gold - $491.20 +$2.40
Silver - $8.13 +.02
Platinum - $966 -$6
<< <i>Will Gold hit the magic $500 mark this month?
After hours trading:
Gold - $491.20 +$2.40
Silver - $8.13 +.02
Platinum - $966 -$6 >>
Probably.
But then we will see the end of year sell-offs by those taking profit. It will close the year right around or a bit below where it is today.
Same thing with silver. I expect silver to fall below $8 between December 15-20. I've noticed December 15 as a date to circle and learned to expect a drop in PMs around that time, give or take a few days.
EDIT: I do expect to see gold hit $525 by late January of '06.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
roadrunner
Nothing seems to affect the spending habits of Americans or their government. Is it then any wonder that foreign investors are buying GOLD to hedge against their U.S. paper debt assets that may never be redemable?
Nov. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Newmont Mining Corp., the world's largest producer of gold, says the price of the precious metal may rise to more than $1,000 an ounce in the next five to seven years as demand growth driven by Asia outstrips global supply.
Nov. 27 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. retail sales jumped 22 percent to $27.8 billion during the post-Thanksgiving weekend, as shoppers flocked to stores to buy electronics, clothing and books, the National Retail Federation said.
Shoppers spent an average $302.81, the Washington-based trade group said today in a statement. It said 145 million shoppers went to stores and the Internet, as retailers offered substantial discounts.
In a separate statement issued yesterday, Visa USA said retail spending on Visa credit and debit cards rose 12 percent on the Friday after Thanksgiving, led by purchases of electronics and computers. Research-company ShopperTrak RCT Corp.
David Lazarus
Sunday, November 27, 2005
Last month, the national debt reached yet another miserable milestone, passing the $8 trillion mark for the first time. As of last week, the United States was $8,084,858,891,735.31 in the hole, according to the Treasury Department.
Brian Riedl, chief budget analyst at the conservative Heritage Foundation, said the Bush administration is expected to return to Congress within the next few months to ask lawmakers -- once again -- to raise the nation's debt ceiling so we can borrow even more.
"A debt of $8 trillion is certainly a daunting number," Riedl told me. "I'm not sure we'll ever pay it off."
You heard right. The top number cruncher at the Washington think tank that's arguably friendliest to the Bush administration has come to the conclusion that our debt has gotten so out of hand, it may never go away.
<< <i>"A debt of $8 trillion is certainly a daunting number," Riedl told me. "I'm not sure we'll ever pay it off." >>
We can never pay it off in current dollars, but we can inflate as hell and pay it off in tomorrow's dollars. That's the plan.
"According to hedge fund manager Juerg Kiener, it is only a matter of time before Asian central banks start selling US dollars. Russia has already said that it is considering boosting its gold stores.
He said that concerns about the size of budget deficits in some of the world's biggest economies, as well as fears about higher inflation and slower growth, had created a good environment for buying precious metals.
"Gold is the only monetary asset class which will protect investors," Mr Keiner said.
Should Asian central banks move into the gold market, then the effect could be "explosive", said Philip Klapwijk, who is a chairman of consultancy GFMS and a director of the Global Precious Metals Fund. "
Saul Goode
Kitco
Nov 29, 2005 14:55 NY Time
Bid/Ask 499.40 - 500.20
<< <i>
<< <i>"A debt of $8 trillion is certainly a daunting number," Riedl told me. "I'm not sure we'll ever pay it off." >>
We can never pay it off in current dollars, but we can inflate as hell and pay it off in tomorrow's dollars. That's the plan. >>
I agree that this will never be paid off. But since we have a debt-based (fiat) money system, money is created by borrowing (debt). So more inflation equals more debt. So even though tomorrow's "cheaper" dollars could be used to pay today's debt, it means that there will be more debt created along the way. The only way to pay down the debt is to pay with money already in existence, not newly-created debt-money.
The act of creating debt is what creates money (fiat money is borrowed into existence). When a debt is paid off, that money vanishes. Deflation is when everyone is paying off debts (money supply shrinking). There was a time when a loaf of bread cost 5 cents. If the 8 trillion dollar debt was paid off (8 trillion dollars removed from the money supply), then it is almost certain that a loaf of bread would again cost 5 cents.
But that, of course, isn't going to happen. The entire fiat-money economy is geared towards ever-increasing money supply and, by association, an ever-increasing human population (sort of like the ever-expanding universe). If the money supply shinks significantly, there will be trouble. Big trouble. Like a general break-down of society kind of trouble. The money supply must (and will) follow an exponentially-increasing path. And to achieve that, they won't be dropping money from helicopters. But the Federal Government will borrow and spend ever more wildly. They'll just borrow more from the Federal Reserve who will create the money (more debt) just by typing in a few more zeroes.